This study focuses on efficient asset allocations that properly include T-bills, T-bonds, and the S&P 500 stock index. It checks that their annual real rates of linear return are both normal and almost lognormal. It reexamines how efficient portfolios based on the rates of linear return may turn into efficient portfolios based on the rates of logarithmic return. It finds that each efficient asset allocation has the lowest possible standard deviation as well as the highest possible arithmetic and geometric means. It eventually reconsiders the relationship between the confidence interval of a geometric mean and an expected long-run capital accumulation. As a consequence, it bridges a gap in the scientific literature by enabling financial advisors to trade off the mean rate of return on a portfolio more rigorously against the value at risk.
{"title":"Normal Asset Allocations and Their Statistical Properties","authors":"Luca Ghezzi","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12030069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030069","url":null,"abstract":"This study focuses on efficient asset allocations that properly include T-bills, T-bonds, and the S&P 500 stock index. It checks that their annual real rates of linear return are both normal and almost lognormal. It reexamines how efficient portfolios based on the rates of linear return may turn into efficient portfolios based on the rates of logarithmic return. It finds that each efficient asset allocation has the lowest possible standard deviation as well as the highest possible arithmetic and geometric means. It eventually reconsiders the relationship between the confidence interval of a geometric mean and an expected long-run capital accumulation. As a consequence, it bridges a gap in the scientific literature by enabling financial advisors to trade off the mean rate of return on a portfolio more rigorously against the value at risk.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141613831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
After having gained prominence in the late 20th century, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has emerged as a critical business aspect, adopted widely across the corporate landscape. Although family firms play a significant global role, research on their relationship with CSR performance remains sparse and inconclusive. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by employing the primary classification of family firms, the socioemotional wealth perspective, and its FIBER model to examine their influence on CSR performance. The focus is on Canadian public companies listed on the S&P/TSX Composite Index from 2014 to 2022. Utilizing the NBC Canadian Family Index, the findings suggest that family firms exhibit superior CSR performance compared to their non-family counterparts. Further analyses indicate that family firms with greater control and influence by family members, those named after the family, those with strong emotional ties, and first-generation family firms tend to have enhanced CSR performance. By developing a socioemotional wealth score through FIBER dimensions to classify family firms, this study underscores the association of family firms with higher CSR performance, validating the robustness of the results.
{"title":"Corporate Social Responsibility in Canadian Family Businesses: A Socioemotional Wealth Perspective","authors":"Imen Latrous, Jihene Kchaou, Myriam Ertz, Yosra Mnif","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12030068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030068","url":null,"abstract":"After having gained prominence in the late 20th century, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has emerged as a critical business aspect, adopted widely across the corporate landscape. Although family firms play a significant global role, research on their relationship with CSR performance remains sparse and inconclusive. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by employing the primary classification of family firms, the socioemotional wealth perspective, and its FIBER model to examine their influence on CSR performance. The focus is on Canadian public companies listed on the S&P/TSX Composite Index from 2014 to 2022. Utilizing the NBC Canadian Family Index, the findings suggest that family firms exhibit superior CSR performance compared to their non-family counterparts. Further analyses indicate that family firms with greater control and influence by family members, those named after the family, those with strong emotional ties, and first-generation family firms tend to have enhanced CSR performance. By developing a socioemotional wealth score through FIBER dimensions to classify family firms, this study underscores the association of family firms with higher CSR performance, validating the robustness of the results.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141615040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Challenging the perceived immunity of Islamic stocks to the global financial crisis, this research investigates whether there was any coherence and long-run cointegration between Islamic stocks of BRIC countries and S&P 500 options implied volatility smirk (IVS) in BRIC countries during the global financial crisis (GFC). Employing Engle–Granger and Johansen’s cointegration tests along with wavelet coherence analysis, this study reveals significant long-run cointegration and both short-term and long-term wavelet coherence between IVS and Islamic stock returns (ISRs). Since the S&P 500 options IVS is a reliable indicator of GFC in the context of the conventional stock market, the cointegration and coherence between ISRs and IVS indicate the susceptibility of ISRs to market contagion during the GFC. These findings challenge the notion of Islamic stocks as a safe haven during financial crises, showing their susceptibility to market downturns similar to conventional stocks.
{"title":"Assessing the Resilience of Islamic Stocks in BRIC Countries: Analyzing Coherence and Cointegration with S&P 500 Options Implied Volatility Smirk during the Global Financial Crisis","authors":"Ariful Hoque, Tanvir Bhuiyan, Thi Le","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12030067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030067","url":null,"abstract":"Challenging the perceived immunity of Islamic stocks to the global financial crisis, this research investigates whether there was any coherence and long-run cointegration between Islamic stocks of BRIC countries and S&P 500 options implied volatility smirk (IVS) in BRIC countries during the global financial crisis (GFC). Employing Engle–Granger and Johansen’s cointegration tests along with wavelet coherence analysis, this study reveals significant long-run cointegration and both short-term and long-term wavelet coherence between IVS and Islamic stock returns (ISRs). Since the S&P 500 options IVS is a reliable indicator of GFC in the context of the conventional stock market, the cointegration and coherence between ISRs and IVS indicate the susceptibility of ISRs to market contagion during the GFC. These findings challenge the notion of Islamic stocks as a safe haven during financial crises, showing their susceptibility to market downturns similar to conventional stocks.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141586883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study provides an intuitive investigation into the disposition effect within frontier markets such as Bangladesh, particularly focusing on its behavior during various market conditions. The study’s novelty lies in its application of a methodological framework of the disposition effect measure of Weber and Camerer, aiming to understand the disposition effect through different market conditions. Dow Theory is applied to disparate bullish and bearish intermediate periods. Disposition effects persist for the entire study period, as well as the different market conditions except for the bearish Bangladesh equity market. The bullish and crisis markets exhibit a rather high disposition effect due to their respective market volatility. Stronger disposition effects are more pronounced for a crisis market in relation to a bullish market. In addition, the disposition effect in Bangladesh’s equity market oscillates in crisis periods. The documentation of the disposition effect in the Bangladesh equity market across market conditions suggests that investors’ psychology plays a crucial role in their decision processes. Individuals and professional investors should carefully design an appropriate strategy to control their decision-making process since the presence of disposition effects may impair the risk-return payoffs.
{"title":"Does the Bangladesh Equity Market Expose to Disposition Effects Bias under Different Market Conditions?","authors":"Muhammad Enamul Haque, Mahmood Osman Imam","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12030065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030065","url":null,"abstract":"The study provides an intuitive investigation into the disposition effect within frontier markets such as Bangladesh, particularly focusing on its behavior during various market conditions. The study’s novelty lies in its application of a methodological framework of the disposition effect measure of Weber and Camerer, aiming to understand the disposition effect through different market conditions. Dow Theory is applied to disparate bullish and bearish intermediate periods. Disposition effects persist for the entire study period, as well as the different market conditions except for the bearish Bangladesh equity market. The bullish and crisis markets exhibit a rather high disposition effect due to their respective market volatility. Stronger disposition effects are more pronounced for a crisis market in relation to a bullish market. In addition, the disposition effect in Bangladesh’s equity market oscillates in crisis periods. The documentation of the disposition effect in the Bangladesh equity market across market conditions suggests that investors’ psychology plays a crucial role in their decision processes. Individuals and professional investors should carefully design an appropriate strategy to control their decision-making process since the presence of disposition effects may impair the risk-return payoffs.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"321 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141509665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Research background: Despite the fact that the issue of private, decentralized digital money (cryptocurrencies) is already quite extensively described in the literature dedicated to the financial system, especially its periphery, there is a deficiency in terms of research on the opinions of participants in the financial system, based on trust in money and its widespread acceptance. International comparative studies are lacking, particularly those conducted before and after the COVID-19 virus pandemic. The pandemic showed that people had significantly changed their willingness to use different forms of money. Being isolated at home and avoiding direct contact with others, people started to use digital money more frequently. Purpose of the article: In response to the identified research gap, this study reports research results on the perception of cryptocurrencies by young financial market participants. It attempts to provide answers to the following research questions: (1) Has the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown of economies caused changes at the international level in perceptions and attitudes toward the traditional monetary system and cryptocurrencies? (2) Has the COVID-19 pandemic changed perceptions of cryptocurrencies as a potential alternative to current fiat money? Methods: To evaluate respondents’ opinions, a survey in the form of a questionnaire was conducted. The respondent groups in 2019/2020 were N = 171 (Germany = 143 and Poland = 128), while in 2021, N = 157 (Germany = 95 and Poland = 62). For analytical purposes, statistical analysis using the Z ratio test was used to capture the characteristics of the response distributions and the relationships between them. These two moments in time allowed us to determine whether there were significant changes between opinions before and after COVID-19. Findings & value added: The study’s results showed that while there are significant differences in perceptions of the traditional monetary system and cryptocurrencies due to a variety of factors, the COVID-19 pandemic and the shutdown of economies did not cause statistically significant differences in this regard.
{"title":"Perceptions of Cryptocurrencies and Modern Money before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poland and Germany","authors":"Marta Maciejasz, Robert Poskart, Daria Wotzka","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12030064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030064","url":null,"abstract":"Research background: Despite the fact that the issue of private, decentralized digital money (cryptocurrencies) is already quite extensively described in the literature dedicated to the financial system, especially its periphery, there is a deficiency in terms of research on the opinions of participants in the financial system, based on trust in money and its widespread acceptance. International comparative studies are lacking, particularly those conducted before and after the COVID-19 virus pandemic. The pandemic showed that people had significantly changed their willingness to use different forms of money. Being isolated at home and avoiding direct contact with others, people started to use digital money more frequently. Purpose of the article: In response to the identified research gap, this study reports research results on the perception of cryptocurrencies by young financial market participants. It attempts to provide answers to the following research questions: (1) Has the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown of economies caused changes at the international level in perceptions and attitudes toward the traditional monetary system and cryptocurrencies? (2) Has the COVID-19 pandemic changed perceptions of cryptocurrencies as a potential alternative to current fiat money? Methods: To evaluate respondents’ opinions, a survey in the form of a questionnaire was conducted. The respondent groups in 2019/2020 were N = 171 (Germany = 143 and Poland = 128), while in 2021, N = 157 (Germany = 95 and Poland = 62). For analytical purposes, statistical analysis using the Z ratio test was used to capture the characteristics of the response distributions and the relationships between them. These two moments in time allowed us to determine whether there were significant changes between opinions before and after COVID-19. Findings & value added: The study’s results showed that while there are significant differences in perceptions of the traditional monetary system and cryptocurrencies due to a variety of factors, the COVID-19 pandemic and the shutdown of economies did not cause statistically significant differences in this regard.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141509691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hicham Sbai, Slimane Ed-Dafali, Hicham Meghouar, Muhammad Mohiuddin
This study investigates the relationship between ownership structures and dividend policies for 46 Islamic and 75 conventional banks from 12 MENA and Asian countries between 2012 and 2020. Logit regression is employed to estimate the regression equation, centering on the moderating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and national culture. Our findings remain robust as we tackle the endogeneity issue using probit and logistic regression models. Asset growth and GDP growth serve as proxies for investment opportunities. Additionally, dividend per share acts as a proxy for dividend policy. Our findings emphasize how the ownership structure impacts dividend payouts in both banking systems. We observed positive relationships between dividend payouts and foreign ownership, bank size, age, and performance. Conversely, concentration of ownership and leverage negatively influence dividend payouts. The COVID-19 pandemic directly boosts the dividend policy for conventional banks and alters the relationship between foreign ownership and distribution policy in Islamic banks. Specifically, COVID-19 interacts with foreign and state ownership to reduce dividend payouts, but concentration of ownership does not show this effect. This study furnishes evidence affirming the significance of the ownership structure in shaping the dividend payout policy within Islamic and conventional banking. The results maintain their reliability across various estimation approaches. Moreover, this study accounts for the crisis period as a moderating factor influencing dividend payments.
{"title":"Ownership Structure and Bank Dividend Policies: New Empirical Evidence from the Dual Banking Systems of MENA Countries","authors":"Hicham Sbai, Slimane Ed-Dafali, Hicham Meghouar, Muhammad Mohiuddin","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12030063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030063","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the relationship between ownership structures and dividend policies for 46 Islamic and 75 conventional banks from 12 MENA and Asian countries between 2012 and 2020. Logit regression is employed to estimate the regression equation, centering on the moderating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and national culture. Our findings remain robust as we tackle the endogeneity issue using probit and logistic regression models. Asset growth and GDP growth serve as proxies for investment opportunities. Additionally, dividend per share acts as a proxy for dividend policy. Our findings emphasize how the ownership structure impacts dividend payouts in both banking systems. We observed positive relationships between dividend payouts and foreign ownership, bank size, age, and performance. Conversely, concentration of ownership and leverage negatively influence dividend payouts. The COVID-19 pandemic directly boosts the dividend policy for conventional banks and alters the relationship between foreign ownership and distribution policy in Islamic banks. Specifically, COVID-19 interacts with foreign and state ownership to reduce dividend payouts, but concentration of ownership does not show this effect. This study furnishes evidence affirming the significance of the ownership structure in shaping the dividend payout policy within Islamic and conventional banking. The results maintain their reliability across various estimation approaches. Moreover, this study accounts for the crisis period as a moderating factor influencing dividend payments.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141514008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The transformative impact of AI technologies on the financial sector has been a topic of increasing interest. This study investigates ChatGPT’s applications in financial reasoning and analysis and evaluates ChatGPT-4o’s effectiveness and limitations in conducting both basic and complex financial analysis tasks. By designing a series of multi-step, advanced reasoning tasks and establishing task-specific evaluation metrics, we assessed ChatGPT-4o’s performance compared to human analysts. Results indicate that while ChatGPT-4o demonstrates proficiency in basic and some complex financial tasks, it struggles with deep analytical and critical thinking tasks, especially in specialized finance areas. This study underscores the need for meticulous task formulation and robust evaluation in AI financial applications. While ChatGPT enhances efficiency, integrating it with human expertise is crucial for effective decision-making. Our findings highlight both the potential and limitations of ChatGPT-4o in financial analysis, providing valuable insights for future AI integration in the finance sector.
{"title":"AI-Driven Financial Analysis: Exploring ChatGPT’s Capabilities and Challenges","authors":"Li Xian Liu, Zhiyue Sun, Kunpeng Xu, Chao Chen","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12030060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030060","url":null,"abstract":"The transformative impact of AI technologies on the financial sector has been a topic of increasing interest. This study investigates ChatGPT’s applications in financial reasoning and analysis and evaluates ChatGPT-4o’s effectiveness and limitations in conducting both basic and complex financial analysis tasks. By designing a series of multi-step, advanced reasoning tasks and establishing task-specific evaluation metrics, we assessed ChatGPT-4o’s performance compared to human analysts. Results indicate that while ChatGPT-4o demonstrates proficiency in basic and some complex financial tasks, it struggles with deep analytical and critical thinking tasks, especially in specialized finance areas. This study underscores the need for meticulous task formulation and robust evaluation in AI financial applications. While ChatGPT enhances efficiency, integrating it with human expertise is crucial for effective decision-making. Our findings highlight both the potential and limitations of ChatGPT-4o in financial analysis, providing valuable insights for future AI integration in the finance sector.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"2011 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141513881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study sought to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in low-income nations in the SADC region. Motivated by the observation that numerous states in the SADC region lack adequately developed financial systems, this investigation was undertaken. Many SADC states are low-income countries, and they remain financially underdeveloped, which could compromise their growth prospects. The analysis was quantitative in nature, and used panel data to achieve its objectives. The data period spanned from 2000 to 2022. The dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) technique was used for estimation purposes. Results showed that there is a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. The relationship was also found to be causal: financial development is not only a result of economic growth; it also influences growth. The evidence from the findings supports the notion that financial development is needed to increase the effectiveness of resource allocation and consequently promote growth. This calls on the governments in the countries under investigation to create environments that foster financial development.
{"title":"Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Low-Income Nations in the SADC Region","authors":"Courage Mlambo","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12030062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030062","url":null,"abstract":"The study sought to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in low-income nations in the SADC region. Motivated by the observation that numerous states in the SADC region lack adequately developed financial systems, this investigation was undertaken. Many SADC states are low-income countries, and they remain financially underdeveloped, which could compromise their growth prospects. The analysis was quantitative in nature, and used panel data to achieve its objectives. The data period spanned from 2000 to 2022. The dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) technique was used for estimation purposes. Results showed that there is a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. The relationship was also found to be causal: financial development is not only a result of economic growth; it also influences growth. The evidence from the findings supports the notion that financial development is needed to increase the effectiveness of resource allocation and consequently promote growth. This calls on the governments in the countries under investigation to create environments that foster financial development.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"362 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141514007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of volatility dynamics in commodity returns, such as gold and cocoa, as well as the financial market index S&P500. It provides a comprehensive overview of each model’s efficacy in capturing volatility clustering, asymmetry, and long-term memory effects in asset returns. By employing models like sGARCH, eGARCH, gjrGARCH, and FIGARCH, the research offers a nuanced understanding of volatility evolution and its impact on asset returns. Using the Skewed Generalized Error Distribution (SGED) in model optimization shows how important it is to understand asymmetry and fat-tailedness in return distributions, which are common in financial data. Key findings include the sGARCH model being the preferred choice for Gold Futures due to its lower AIC value and favorable parameter estimates, indicating significant volatility clustering and a slight positive skewness in return distribution. For Cocoa Futures, the FIGARCH model demonstrates superior performance in capturing long memory effects, as evidenced by its higher log-likelihood value and lower AIC value. For the S&P500 Index, the eGARCH model stands out for its ability to capture asymmetry in volatility responses, showing superior performance in both log-likelihood and AIC values. Overall, identifying superior modeling approaches like the FIGARCH model for long memory effects can enhance risk management strategies by providing more accurate estimates of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). Additionally, the out-of-sample evaluation reveals that Support Vector Regression (SVR) outperforms traditional GARCH models for short-term forecasting horizons, indicating its potential as an alternative forecasting tool in financial markets. These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate modeling techniques tailored to specific asset classes and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, the study highlights the potential of advanced techniques like SVR in enhancing forecasting accuracy, thus offering valuable implications for portfolio management and risk assessment in financial markets.
{"title":"Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy in Commodity and Financial Markets: Insights from GARCH and SVR Models","authors":"Apostolos Ampountolas","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12030059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030059","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of volatility dynamics in commodity returns, such as gold and cocoa, as well as the financial market index S&P500. It provides a comprehensive overview of each model’s efficacy in capturing volatility clustering, asymmetry, and long-term memory effects in asset returns. By employing models like sGARCH, eGARCH, gjrGARCH, and FIGARCH, the research offers a nuanced understanding of volatility evolution and its impact on asset returns. Using the Skewed Generalized Error Distribution (SGED) in model optimization shows how important it is to understand asymmetry and fat-tailedness in return distributions, which are common in financial data. Key findings include the sGARCH model being the preferred choice for Gold Futures due to its lower AIC value and favorable parameter estimates, indicating significant volatility clustering and a slight positive skewness in return distribution. For Cocoa Futures, the FIGARCH model demonstrates superior performance in capturing long memory effects, as evidenced by its higher log-likelihood value and lower AIC value. For the S&P500 Index, the eGARCH model stands out for its ability to capture asymmetry in volatility responses, showing superior performance in both log-likelihood and AIC values. Overall, identifying superior modeling approaches like the FIGARCH model for long memory effects can enhance risk management strategies by providing more accurate estimates of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). Additionally, the out-of-sample evaluation reveals that Support Vector Regression (SVR) outperforms traditional GARCH models for short-term forecasting horizons, indicating its potential as an alternative forecasting tool in financial markets. These findings underscore the importance of selecting appropriate modeling techniques tailored to specific asset classes and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, the study highlights the potential of advanced techniques like SVR in enhancing forecasting accuracy, thus offering valuable implications for portfolio management and risk assessment in financial markets.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141513880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper seeks to investigate how earnings quality is affected by related party transactions (RPTs). The research also examines the impact of ownership structure as a moderating variable on this relationship. Panel data with the firm fixed effects model are utilized in the paper. A sample of 91 non-financial companies listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange between 2018 and 2022 were included, resulting in 429 observations of company performance over that time period. This paper finds that there is a negative association between RPTs and earnings quality. Furthermore, the study found that the adverse effect of RPTs on earnings quality is intensified when there is managerial ownership and institutional ownership as moderating variables. The study’s conclusions are robust and reliable, as the sensitivity analysis results reinforce those of the basic analysis. To the authors’ knowledge, there is relatively little available evidence on the connection between RPTs and their correlation with earnings quality, particularly in the context of ownership structure acting as a moderating variable. Moreover, the study’s findings hold important implications for enhancing earnings quality in developing economies. To the authors’ knowledge, no studies have been conducted in Saudi Arabia thus far to investigate the impact of ownership concentration, institutional ownership, managerial ownership, foreign ownership, and state ownership on the association between RPTs and earnings quality. Therefore, this paper expands the literature by modeling how the interaction between ownership structure and related party transactions may influence earnings quality. In this way, the authors contribute to the body of knowledge by unveiling a more robust control mechanism, particularly in developing economies with ineffective markets for corporate control.
{"title":"The Moderating Effect of Ownership Structure on the Relationship between Related Party Transactions and Earnings Quality: Evidence from Saudi Arabia","authors":"Abdulaziz Alsultan, Khaled Hussainey","doi":"10.3390/ijfs12030058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs12030058","url":null,"abstract":"This paper seeks to investigate how earnings quality is affected by related party transactions (RPTs). The research also examines the impact of ownership structure as a moderating variable on this relationship. Panel data with the firm fixed effects model are utilized in the paper. A sample of 91 non-financial companies listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange between 2018 and 2022 were included, resulting in 429 observations of company performance over that time period. This paper finds that there is a negative association between RPTs and earnings quality. Furthermore, the study found that the adverse effect of RPTs on earnings quality is intensified when there is managerial ownership and institutional ownership as moderating variables. The study’s conclusions are robust and reliable, as the sensitivity analysis results reinforce those of the basic analysis. To the authors’ knowledge, there is relatively little available evidence on the connection between RPTs and their correlation with earnings quality, particularly in the context of ownership structure acting as a moderating variable. Moreover, the study’s findings hold important implications for enhancing earnings quality in developing economies. To the authors’ knowledge, no studies have been conducted in Saudi Arabia thus far to investigate the impact of ownership concentration, institutional ownership, managerial ownership, foreign ownership, and state ownership on the association between RPTs and earnings quality. Therefore, this paper expands the literature by modeling how the interaction between ownership structure and related party transactions may influence earnings quality. In this way, the authors contribute to the body of knowledge by unveiling a more robust control mechanism, particularly in developing economies with ineffective markets for corporate control.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141509787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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