Yesim Elhan-Kayalar, Yasuyuki Sawada, Yana van der Meulen Rodgers
This paper examines business performance and crisis-mitigation strategies among micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic. We utilise a new primary dataset based on administrative records, survey data, and follow-up interviews with merchants using the digital application GoFood, an on-demand cooked food delivery service. Three empirical findings emerge: first, the overall employment size of women-owned businesses shrank more than men-owned businesses after the onset of the pandemic; second, women were more likely than men to cut personal expenditures and use government assistance as crisis-mitigation strategies; and third, competition increased sharply as new merchants entered the platform, with the service areas of both incumbents and entrants shrinking over time. These results have implications for policies on womenʼs entrepreneurship, the uptake of business development services, and financing programs for MSMEs.
{"title":"Gender, entrepreneurship, and coping with the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of GoFood merchants in Indonesia","authors":"Yesim Elhan-Kayalar, Yasuyuki Sawada, Yana van der Meulen Rodgers","doi":"10.1002/app5.362","DOIUrl":"10.1002/app5.362","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines business performance and crisis-mitigation strategies among micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic. We utilise a new primary dataset based on administrative records, survey data, and follow-up interviews with merchants using the digital application GoFood, an on-demand cooked food delivery service. Three empirical findings emerge: first, the overall employment size of women-owned businesses shrank more than men-owned businesses after the onset of the pandemic; second, women were more likely than men to cut personal expenditures and use government assistance as crisis-mitigation strategies; and third, competition increased sharply as new merchants entered the platform, with the service areas of both incumbents and entrants shrinking over time. These results have implications for policies on womenʼs entrepreneurship, the uptake of business development services, and financing programs for MSMEs.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"9 3","pages":"222-245"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/58/57/APP5-9-222.PMC9877894.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10586495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Knowing whether poverty rates converge within a country matters for regional development policy and for understanding growth processes. In this paper, we use five poverty measures, calculated biennially from 2004 to 2014 for 100 districts in Pakistan, to test for poverty convergence. Spatial autoregressive models are used to capture spatial spillovers. Conventional money-metric poverty measures, such as the headcount index and poverty gap index, show unconditional convergence, and the convergence is more apparent if indirect impacts from spillovers are accounted for. In contrast, two multidimensional poverty indices show no convergence and no indirect impacts from spatial spillovers. Catch-up growth in initially poorer areas is apparent with the money-metric poverty measures traditionally used in Pakistan but not with the types of multidimensional poverty measures used officially since 2015. This difference in apparent poverty convergence could affect regional development policy choices.
{"title":"Does intra-country poverty convergence depend on spatial spillovers and the type of poverty measure? Evidence from Pakistan","authors":"Zaira Najam, John Gibson","doi":"10.1002/app5.369","DOIUrl":"10.1002/app5.369","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Knowing whether poverty rates converge within a country matters for regional development policy and for understanding growth processes. In this paper, we use five poverty measures, calculated biennially from 2004 to 2014 for 100 districts in Pakistan, to test for poverty convergence. Spatial autoregressive models are used to capture spatial spillovers. Conventional money-metric poverty measures, such as the headcount index and poverty gap index, show unconditional convergence, and the convergence is more apparent if indirect impacts from spillovers are accounted for. In contrast, two multidimensional poverty indices show no convergence and no indirect impacts from spatial spillovers. Catch-up growth in initially poorer areas is apparent with the money-metric poverty measures traditionally used in Pakistan but not with the types of multidimensional poverty measures used officially since 2015. This difference in apparent poverty convergence could affect regional development policy choices.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"9 3","pages":"516-535"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.369","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122032414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using the Philippinesʼ first nationally representative survey designed to characterise digital commercial and non-commercial engagements, including the use of information and communications technology (ICT), the digital economy, and technology-enabled activities, we investigate the presence of gendered disparities in online marketplaces. This is consistent with the spirit of a gender and development approach that aims for equitable outcomes between men and women. We verify whether the observed participation of women in online marketplaces results in higher online sales. To establish the determinants of participation in and incomes from online marketplaces, we use a Heckman estimator in cognisance of the non-random choices people make when they enter online marketplaces. The negative selection indicates that those likely to sell have unobserved attributes negatively correlated with online income. Based on our modelʼs income predictions, men outperform women in online sales and hold the advantage, replicating a trend observed in traditional marketplaces. Results also highlight the importance of skills, digital awareness and habits, selling platforms, and ICT infrastructure. The paper also identifies potential initiatives for online marketplaces.
{"title":"Harnessing the potential of online marketplaces in the Philippines: Insights from the National Information and Communications Technology Household Survey","authors":"Connie Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Lawrence B. Dacuycuy","doi":"10.1002/app5.365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.365","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using the Philippinesʼ first nationally representative survey designed to characterise digital commercial and non-commercial engagements, including the use of information and communications technology (ICT), the digital economy, and technology-enabled activities, we investigate the presence of gendered disparities in online marketplaces. This is consistent with the spirit of a gender and development approach that aims for equitable outcomes between men and women. We verify whether the observed participation of women in online marketplaces results in higher online sales. To establish the determinants of participation in and incomes from online marketplaces, we use a Heckman estimator in cognisance of the non-random choices people make when they enter online marketplaces. The negative selection indicates that those likely to sell have unobserved attributes negatively correlated with online income. Based on our modelʼs income predictions, men outperform women in online sales and hold the advantage, replicating a trend observed in traditional marketplaces. Results also highlight the importance of skills, digital awareness and habits, selling platforms, and ICT infrastructure. The paper also identifies potential initiatives for online marketplaces.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"9 3","pages":"288-316"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.365","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137535587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Online marketplaces are growing rapidly globally. They have the potential to significantly benefit women; however, these benefits are not guaranteed. A lack of information on the benefits of or how to participate in online marketplaces could mean womenʼs participation is at an inefficiently low level. Participation could also bring about unintended consequences. We introduce this special issue of Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies on the social and economic benefits of online marketplaces for women in Asia. In this introduction, we set the context for the special issue, then provide an overview of its seven papers.
{"title":"Introduction to the special issue on social and economic impacts of online marketplaces on women in Asia","authors":"Ryan Edwards, Daniel Suryadarma","doi":"10.1002/app5.367","DOIUrl":"10.1002/app5.367","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Online marketplaces are growing rapidly globally. They have the potential to significantly benefit women; however, these benefits are not guaranteed. A lack of information on the benefits of or how to participate in online marketplaces could mean womenʼs participation is at an inefficiently low level. Participation could also bring about unintended consequences. We introduce this special issue of <i>Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies</i> on the social and economic benefits of online marketplaces for women in Asia. In this introduction, we set the context for the special issue, then provide an overview of its seven papers.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"9 3","pages":"217-221"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.367","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129208984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Niken Kusumawardhani, Anna Falentina, Palmira Bachtiar, Veto Indrio
This study examines whether internet usage among micro and small enterprises (MSEs) could influence household membersʼ use of the internet in terms of intensity as well as usage for productive activities. Using longitudinal data from MSEs in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, covering the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, the study finds that more intensive use of the internet by female entrepreneurs is positively associated with at least an 8 percentage-point higher probability of internet use for school-related purposes by household members. Findings from qualitative analysis indicate that female entrepreneurs who are intensive users of the internet are more effective in persuading their household members to accept use of the internet especially for purposes related to their domain of responsibilities, such as childrenʼs education. We argue that policymakers should focus on improving digital literacy among female entrepreneurs as an affirmative action policy to ensure they can enjoy the maximum benefits that digitalisation has to offer.
{"title":"Internet usage among women-led micro and small enterprises and household membersʼ use of the internet at home: Evidence from Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Niken Kusumawardhani, Anna Falentina, Palmira Bachtiar, Veto Indrio","doi":"10.1002/app5.366","DOIUrl":"10.1002/app5.366","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines whether internet usage among micro and small enterprises (MSEs) could influence household membersʼ use of the internet in terms of intensity as well as usage for productive activities. Using longitudinal data from MSEs in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, covering the period before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, the study finds that more intensive use of the internet by female entrepreneurs is positively associated with at least an 8 percentage-point higher probability of internet use for school-related purposes by household members. Findings from qualitative analysis indicate that female entrepreneurs who are intensive users of the internet are more effective in persuading their household members to accept use of the internet especially for purposes related to their domain of responsibilities, such as childrenʼs education. We argue that policymakers should focus on improving digital literacy among female entrepreneurs as an affirmative action policy to ensure they can enjoy the maximum benefits that digitalisation has to offer.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"9 3","pages":"370-393"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.366","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122738029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An equitable distribution of economic benefits from the recent growth of e-commerce in Pakistan requires inclusive adoption of formal digital marketplaces. The available literature and focused discussions reveal that most women-led businesses rely on informal e-commerce managed through social media applications and have incomplete and often incorrect information on the benefits and choices related to the formal platforms. To inform and motivate women-led micro, small and medium enterprises, this study deploys an information treatment through a randomised control trial of 300 women entrepreneurs in large urban centres of Pakistan. Results show that women entrepreneurs were responsive to the information, as the treated businesses were 10 percentage points more likely to opt for formal e-commerce than the control group. The study is policy relevant as the methodology allows simple and inexpensive replication to scale up the treatment for better business growth for women entrepreneurs in Pakistan.
{"title":"Willingness of women-led businesses in Pakistan to join formal e-commerce platforms","authors":"Syed M. Hasan, M. Raza Mustafa Khan, Verda Arif","doi":"10.1002/app5.363","DOIUrl":"10.1002/app5.363","url":null,"abstract":"<p>An equitable distribution of economic benefits from the recent growth of e-commerce in Pakistan requires inclusive adoption of formal digital marketplaces. The available literature and focused discussions reveal that most women-led businesses rely on informal e-commerce managed through social media applications and have incomplete and often incorrect information on the benefits and choices related to the formal platforms. To inform and motivate women-led micro, small and medium enterprises, this study deploys an information treatment through a randomised control trial of 300 women entrepreneurs in large urban centres of Pakistan. Results show that women entrepreneurs were responsive to the information, as the treated businesses were 10 percentage points more likely to opt for formal e-commerce than the control group. The study is policy relevant as the methodology allows simple and inexpensive replication to scale up the treatment for better business growth for women entrepreneurs in Pakistan.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"9 3","pages":"246-267"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.363","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133578590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Early experience of COVID-19 in seven Pacific politically dependent territories (Guam, American Samoa, Pitcairn, Tokelau, French Polynesia, Wallis and Futuna, and New Caledonia) emphasises a diversity of contexts, responses, outcomes and possible futures. The consequences of COVID-19, whether present or absent, included deaths, social isolation, impossibility of medical referrals, economic decline, breakdown of supply chains, and some return migration to rural livelihoods. Outcomes were complicated by differences between local and metropolitan interests, objectives, policies and practices, that reflected historical experience; and by geography, budgets, the significance of tourism, the role of a military presence, ethnicity and demography. Indigenous groups were more likely to be affected and disadvantaged. Management of the pandemic provided an intermittent focus for dissent from pro-independence groups. Borders acquired unprecedented significance as barriers and frontiers. The experience of COVID-19 enabled some focus on the possibility of establishing a future ‘new normal’, but immediate revivals and restoration took precedence.
{"title":"COVID-19 in the Pacific territories: Isolation, borders and the complexities of governance","authors":"John Connell","doi":"10.1002/app5.364","DOIUrl":"10.1002/app5.364","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Early experience of COVID-19 in seven Pacific politically dependent territories (Guam, American Samoa, Pitcairn, Tokelau, French Polynesia, Wallis and Futuna, and New Caledonia) emphasises a diversity of contexts, responses, outcomes and possible futures. The consequences of COVID-19, whether present or absent, included deaths, social isolation, impossibility of medical referrals, economic decline, breakdown of supply chains, and some return migration to rural livelihoods. Outcomes were complicated by differences between local and metropolitan interests, objectives, policies and practices, that reflected historical experience; and by geography, budgets, the significance of tourism, the role of a military presence, ethnicity and demography. Indigenous groups were more likely to be affected and disadvantaged. Management of the pandemic provided an intermittent focus for dissent from pro-independence groups. Borders acquired unprecedented significance as barriers and frontiers. The experience of COVID-19 enabled some focus on the possibility of establishing a future ‘new normal’, but immediate revivals and restoration took precedence.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"9 3","pages":"394-407"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/5e/4e/APP5-9-394.PMC9878064.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9143426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Income-generating activities by women are an effective means of reducing gender-based deprivation and disparities. In the constrained familial and community settings of developing economies, online platforms can be an appropriate means for women to carry out economic activities. In this context, important initiatives taken by the Government of India, such as the Common Service Centres scheme, are worth studying. This paper critically evaluates such revolutionary online platform–based entrepreneurial initiatives using the capability approach developed by Amartya Sen. We examine through case studies how women-run businesses use online platforms and what determines their success, inputs, capabilities, and conversion factors. Further, national enterprise-level data from Indiaʼs National Sample Survey Office are analysed to show that states with a higher level of gender inequality are also the regions with a lower level of information and communications technology usage by women-run enterprises.
{"title":"Women online: A study of Common Service Centres in India using a capability approach","authors":"Meenakshi Rajeev, Supriya Bhandarkar","doi":"10.1002/app5.360","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.360","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Income-generating activities by women are an effective means of reducing gender-based deprivation and disparities. In the constrained familial and community settings of developing economies, online platforms can be an appropriate means for women to carry out economic activities. In this context, important initiatives taken by the Government of India, such as the Common Service Centres scheme, are worth studying. This paper critically evaluates such revolutionary online platform–based entrepreneurial initiatives using the capability approach developed by Amartya Sen. We examine through case studies how women-run businesses use online platforms and what determines their success, inputs, capabilities, and conversion factors. Further, national enterprise-level data from Indiaʼs National Sample Survey Office are analysed to show that states with a higher level of gender inequality are also the regions with a lower level of information and communications technology usage by women-run enterprises.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"9 3","pages":"268-287"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.360","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137947260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anel A. Kireyeva, Zaira T. Satpayeva, Gaukhar K. Kenzhegulova, Dana M. Kangalakova, Aruzhan Jussibaliyeva
This study aims to investigate womenʼs participation in offline and online marketplaces and identify related factors, particularly the digital divide, access to the internet, and the level of information and communications technology (ICT) proficiency. It discusses the empirical methodology of its two approaches: a descriptive analysis of statistical data and a sociological survey. This study employs quantitative analyses. The respondents to this study were women who used marketplaces in Kazakhstan. The model was tested using the data for 295 respondents. The results reveal the COVID-19 pandemic affected both the number of online purchases and the structure of those purchases: women began ordering more medicines and food, and less equipment and clothing online. The main factors affecting participation in online marketplaces are income level, access to the internet, and the use of ICT. This study tries to reduce the gap in the literature on the benefits and barriers for women by providing empirical evidence about the influence of COVID-19 on online marketplaces.
{"title":"Kazakhstani womenʼs participation in online marketplaces: Benefits and barriers","authors":"Anel A. Kireyeva, Zaira T. Satpayeva, Gaukhar K. Kenzhegulova, Dana M. Kangalakova, Aruzhan Jussibaliyeva","doi":"10.1002/app5.361","DOIUrl":"10.1002/app5.361","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study aims to investigate womenʼs participation in offline and online marketplaces and identify related factors, particularly the digital divide, access to the internet, and the level of information and communications technology (ICT) proficiency. It discusses the empirical methodology of its two approaches: a descriptive analysis of statistical data and a sociological survey. This study employs quantitative analyses. The respondents to this study were women who used marketplaces in Kazakhstan. The model was tested using the data for 295 respondents. The results reveal the COVID-19 pandemic affected both the number of online purchases and the structure of those purchases: women began ordering more medicines and food, and less equipment and clothing online. The main factors affecting participation in online marketplaces are income level, access to the internet, and the use of ICT. This study tries to reduce the gap in the literature on the benefits and barriers for women by providing empirical evidence about the influence of COVID-19 on online marketplaces.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"9 3","pages":"343-369"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.361","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131689123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Papua New Guinea (PNG) has faced a foreign exchange (forex) shortage since 2015. The Bank of PNG has resorted to forex rationing to protect reserves, leading to a large backlog of orders and import compression. This paper surveys the structure of PNGʼs forex market and analyses recent market conditions. We argue that a real exchange rate depreciation is required to restore currency convertibility. We develop a forex market model that features a backlog of unmet orders which suggests that a frontloaded depreciation is preferred to an often-favored gradual adjustment. Empirical results indicate that the governmentʼs large budget deficits have contributed to the forex shortage, highlighting the need for greater fiscal restraint. In the longer term, we argue for more exchange rate flexibility and forex allocation through competitive auction.
巴布亚新几内亚(PNG)自2015年以来一直面临外汇短缺。巴布亚新几内亚央行(Bank of PNG)已采取外汇配给制来保护外汇储备,导致大量订单积压,进口受到挤压。本文调查了巴布亚新几内亚外汇市场的结构,并分析了最近的市场状况。我们认为,恢复货币可兑换性需要实际汇率贬值。我们开发了一个外汇市场模型,该模型的特点是积压的未满足订单,这表明提前贬值比通常受欢迎的逐步调整更可取。实证结果表明,政府的巨额预算赤字是外汇短缺的原因之一,这凸显了加大财政约束的必要性。从长期来看,我们主张通过竞争性拍卖提高汇率灵活性和外汇分配。
{"title":"The path to kina convertibility: An analysis of Papua New Guineaʼs foreign exchange market","authors":"Martin Davies, Marcel Schröder","doi":"10.1002/app5.358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.358","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Papua New Guinea (PNG) has faced a foreign exchange (forex) shortage since 2015. The Bank of PNG has resorted to forex rationing to protect reserves, leading to a large backlog of orders and import compression. This paper surveys the structure of PNGʼs forex market and analyses recent market conditions. We argue that a real exchange rate depreciation is required to restore currency convertibility. We develop a forex market model that features a backlog of unmet orders which suggests that a frontloaded depreciation is preferred to an often-favored gradual adjustment. Empirical results indicate that the governmentʼs large budget deficits have contributed to the forex shortage, highlighting the need for greater fiscal restraint. In the longer term, we argue for more exchange rate flexibility and forex allocation through competitive auction.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"9 3","pages":"465-482"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.358","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137674685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}