Space Policy最新文献_第6页

Project and knowledge management at European public space agencies: The need for a three-dimensional project management office 欧洲公共空间机构的项目和知识管理：对三维项目管理办公室的需求

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101639

Chiara Maria Cocchiara , Giovanna Lo Nigro , Paolo Roma , Antonio Ragusa

Space agencies are continuously developing new space missions, each of which undergoes a long development cycle, from the feasibility study to routine operations and disposal, as per the European Cooperation for Space Standardization (ECSS), the body responsible for developing and maintaining a set of standards for the space industry in Europe. Each mission is a stand-alone project, where the development cycle starts every time from scratch, with new resources, technologies, and requirements, applying the same (tailored) standards, but with limited usage of lessons learnt from earlier or parallel projects. In this article, we analyse typical project management and knowledge management approaches adopted by public space agencies, making use of a relevant case study in Europe. From the results of our case study analysis, we propose a three-dimensional Project Management Office (PMO) governance, explaining how this novel approach helps address limitations and challenges of the current approaches when dealing with multiple complex projects, such as space missions. With the PMO defined as an organisational body or entity assigned various responsibilities, the authors focus on three specific areas, namely, Strategy, Resources, and Knowledge, as three key drivers that can improve the current management of projects of the organization.

根据欧洲空间标准化合作组织（ECSS）的说法，各空间机构正在不断发展新的空间任务，从可行性研究到日常操作和处置，每项任务都经历了一个漫长的发展周期。欧洲空间标准化合作组织负责制定和维护欧洲空间工业的一套标准。每个任务都是一个独立的项目，其中开发周期每次都从零开始，使用新的资源、技术和需求，应用相同的（定制的）标准，但是从早期或并行项目中吸取的经验教训使用有限。在本文中，我们分析了公共空间机构采用的典型项目管理和知识管理方法，并利用了欧洲的一个相关案例研究。根据我们的案例研究分析结果，我们提出了一个三维项目管理办公室（PMO）治理，解释了这种新方法如何帮助解决当前方法在处理多个复杂项目（如太空任务）时的局限性和挑战。将PMO定义为分配了各种职责的组织机构或实体，作者将重点放在三个特定领域，即战略、资源和知识，作为可以改进组织项目当前管理的三个关键驱动因素。

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引用次数: 0

Normal accident theory and learning from major accidents at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 美国国家航空航天局（NASA）的正常事故理论与重大事故教训

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101653

Leo Tasca

A review of NASA's accident history through the lens of Normal Accident Theory (NAT) offers insights into the prospects for safety during the Artemis Program. NAT is applied to NASA's four major human spaceflight accidents: the Apollo launch pad fire, Apollo 13, Challenger and Columbia. NAT predicts that in the complex and tightly coupled systems used for human spaceflight, an accident type known as the “normal accident”, is inevitable. These accidents are attributable to hidden system interactions that overwhelm the cognitive abilities of human operators and, thereby, escape detection. A review of the four official accident reports and supporting secondary analyses suggests NASA has had one such accident: Apollo 13. It was also the only major accident without injury and a successful recovery effort. NAT would categorize the other three as component failure accidents. Unlike normal accidents, component failure accidents are not inevitable. They stem from an organization's failure to appropriately monitor, assess and mitigate the risk associated with a faulty component. In such cases, NAT would ask if production pressures, often rooted in scheduling and resource constraints, were a factor.

Production pressures are ultimately imposed on organizations through the exercise of power. These pressures impede an organization's ability to adequately assess risk and increase the likelihood of component failure accidents. The substantial organizational literature on NASA's human spaceflight accidents has yielded potential remedies to help mitigate the risks associated with production pressure. This paper discusses these remedies and their potential safety benefits. It also proposes a modification to a safety governance mechanism recommended by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB). The resulting changes could help NASA, and other organizations administering high risk technologies, further improve safety.

通过正常事故理论（NAT）对NASA的事故历史进行回顾，为阿尔忒弥斯计划的安全前景提供了见解。NAT应用于美国宇航局的四大人类航天事故：阿波罗发射台火灾、阿波罗13号、挑战者号和哥伦比亚号。NAT预测，在用于载人航天的复杂和紧密耦合的系统中，一种被称为“正常事故”的事故类型是不可避免的。这些事故可归因于隐藏的系统交互，这些交互压倒了人类操作员的认知能力，从而逃脱了检测。对四份官方事故报告的回顾和辅助的二次分析表明，美国宇航局曾发生过一次这样的事故：阿波罗13号。这也是唯一一起没有人员伤亡和成功恢复的重大事故。NAT将其他三个分类为组件故障事故。与正常事故不同，部件故障事故并非不可避免。它们源于组织未能适当地监视、评估和减轻与故障组件相关的风险。在这种情况下，NAT会询问生产压力（通常源于调度和资源限制）是否是一个因素。生产压力最终是通过权力的行使强加给组织的。这些压力阻碍了组织充分评估风险的能力，并增加了组件故障事故的可能性。关于NASA载人航天事故的大量组织文献已经提供了潜在的补救措施，以帮助减轻与生产压力相关的风险。本文讨论了这些补救措施及其潜在的安全效益。它还提出了对哥伦比亚事故调查委员会（CAIB）建议的安全治理机制的修改。由此产生的变化可以帮助NASA和其他管理高风险技术的组织进一步提高安全性。

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引用次数: 0

What is an appropriate investment hurdle rate for commercial space resource development projects? 商业空间资源开发项目的适当投资门槛率是多少？

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101630

Ben McKeown , Jeff Coulton , Serkan Saydam , Andrew G. Dempster

This article sets out to identify an appropriate hurdle rate range for commercial space resource development projects, should such an industry eventuate. There has been little consistency in the use of hurdle rates and discount rates in the evaluation of space resource projects proposed to date. The article uses two approaches to determine an appropriate hurdle rate for the economic evaluation of such projects. Firstly, the article reviews hurdle rate usage in three industries with parallels to a potential space resource industry – the mining industry, the oil & gas industry, and the aerospace industry. The venture capital sector is also considered. The article finds that there is limited direct reference to the hurdle rates used in these industries and therefore uses expected project IRR and corporate Cashflow Return on Investment (CFROI) as proxies to quantify hurdle rates in each industry. Secondly, the article develops a Risk Build Up Method (RBUM) to determine appropriate hurdle rates for hypothetical commercial space resource development projects by quantifying the potential commercial risk to which such projects could be exposed. The RBUM process correlates a commercial risk score quantified on a project by project basis with a hurdle rate risk premium scale to determine an appropriate hurdle rate for such projects. Finally, the article discusses discount rate treatment in the analogue industries, with a view to proposing a consistent approach to the use of discount rates in a potential space resources industry. The article finds that hurdle rates in the range of 25% could be appropriate for potential commercial space resource development projects, depending on the perceived risk of the project, and assuming a suitable legal/regulatory regime is in place. This hurdle rate range and the RBUM process could evolve over time should such an industry eventuate and ultimately mature. The article also proposes that a ‘standard’ industry discount rate of 10% be utilised in order to facilitate the comparison of project to project valuations, based on the discount rate convention for reporting requirements in the US oil & gas industry.

本文旨在为商业空间资源开发项目确定一个适当的门槛范围，以防此类行业最终出现。在评价迄今提议的空间资源项目时，在使用最低比率和贴现率方面几乎没有一致性。本文使用两种方法来确定对此类项目进行经济评估的适当门槛率。首先，本文回顾了与潜在空间资源行业相似的三个行业的门槛率使用情况-采矿业，石油和；天然气工业和航空航天工业。风险投资部门也在考虑之列。本文发现，这些行业使用的门槛率直接参考有限，因此使用预期项目内部收益率和企业现金流投资回报率（CFROI）作为代理来量化每个行业的门槛率。其次，本文开发了一种风险累积方法（RBUM），通过量化商业空间资源开发项目可能面临的潜在商业风险，来确定假设商业空间资源开发项目的适当门槛率。RBUM过程将基于项目的商业风险评分与门槛率风险溢价规模相关联，以确定此类项目的适当门槛率。最后，本文讨论了模拟行业中的贴现率处理，以期提出在潜在的空间资源行业中使用贴现率的一致方法。文章发现，对于潜在的商业空间资源开发项目，25%的门槛利率可能是合适的，这取决于项目的感知风险，并假设有合适的法律/监管制度。如果这样的行业最终成熟，那么这个最低利率范围和RBUM流程可能会随着时间的推移而发展。文章还建议采用10%的“标准”行业贴现率，以便根据美国石油报告要求的贴现率惯例，促进项目间估值的比较。天然气工业。

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引用次数: 0

The transformation of India's space policy: From space for development to the pursuit of security and prestige 印度太空政策的转变：从太空促进发展到追求安全与声誉

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy

Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101633

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan , Dimitrios Stroikos

This article explores the transformation of India's space policy from a focus on space for development to the pursuit of security and prestige. India's early space programme was largely defined by a developmental rationale, aimed at addressing socio-economic challenges through space technology and applications. However, in recent years, India's space policy has undergone a significant change, as the country tries to leverage its space capabilities for strategic objectives, including enhancing its national security, achieving greater status in the global space order, and projecting its great power aspirations. This article offers a comprehensive overview of India's space programme by highlighting the country's high-profile exploration projects, the involvement of the private sector, and the use of space technology as a foreign policy tool and a source of soft power. It also analyses changing perceptions of the country's strategic environment and evolving geopolitical dynamics that have resulted in a reorientation towards the military uses of space. It also assesses the implications of this transformation for India's space programme, its relations with other space actors, and the global governance of outer space.

本文探讨了印度空间政策从注重空间发展到追求安全和声望的转变。印度早期的空间方案在很大程度上是根据发展的理由确定的，旨在通过空间技术和应用解决社会经济挑战。然而，近年来，印度的太空政策发生了重大变化，因为该国试图利用其太空能力实现战略目标，包括加强国家安全，在全球太空秩序中获得更大的地位，并投射其大国愿望。本文通过突出印度备受瞩目的探索项目、私营部门的参与以及将空间技术用作外交政策工具和软实力来源，对印度的太空计划进行了全面概述。它还分析了对国家战略环境的不断变化的看法和不断演变的地缘政治动态，这些因素导致了对空间军事用途的重新定位。报告还评估了这一转变对印度空间方案、印度与其他空间行为体的关系以及外层空间的全球治理的影响。

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引用次数: 0

A Middle East space race? Motivations, trajectories, and regional politics 中东太空竞赛？动机、轨迹和地区政治

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy

Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.spacepol.2023.101608

Lawrence Rubin

In recent years, the Middle East has witnessed a tremendous growth in commercial, civil, and military space activities. For a region known for ethno-religious conflict and vast energy resources, what has motivated the birth and growth of these programs? To what extent do regional politics shape the development and trajectory of space programs? Is there a Middle East space race? This paper surveys the development of the Israeli, Egyptian, and the Emirati space programs to illustrate the extent to which the trajectories of their space programs are related to regional politics. These cases illustrate how a variety of regional political considerations related to security, prestige and economic development have and may continue to shape their space programs. For example, Israel developed its space program for national security reasons and focused its efforts on intelligence and reconnaissance. It has become a world leader in small-satellites because geopolitical realties have forced them to focus on less efficient launches with smaller payloads. Egypt established its program for economic development and to acquire status by claiming leadership in its peer-group of African nations. The U.A.E.’s ambitions in space are motivated by a vital need for economic diversification, driven by large-scale development plans, and by a desire to acquire prestige. This prestige is associated with space leadership at the regional as well as the international level, which Emiratis hope will inspire a STEM oriented, knowledge-based economy.

近年来，中东见证了商业、民用和军事空间活动的巨大增长。对于一个以民族宗教冲突和丰富的能源资源而闻名的地区，是什么推动了这些项目的诞生和发展？区域政治在多大程度上影响了太空计划的发展和轨迹？中东有太空竞赛吗？本文调查了以色列、埃及和阿联酋空间计划的发展，以说明其空间计划的轨迹与区域政治相关的程度。这些案例表明，与安全、声望和经济发展有关的各种区域政治考虑已经并可能继续影响它们的空间计划。例如，以色列出于国家安全的考虑发展了太空计划，并把精力集中在情报和侦察上。中国已经成为小型卫星领域的世界领先者，因为地缘政治现实迫使他们专注于效率较低、有效载荷较小的发射。埃及制定了自己的经济发展计划，并通过声称自己在非洲国家中的领导地位来获得地位。阿联酋在太空的雄心壮志是由经济多样化的迫切需求、大规模发展计划和获得声望的愿望所驱动的。这种声望与在区域和国际层面的空间领导地位有关，阿联酋希望这将激发以STEM为导向的知识经济。

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引用次数: 0

A cosmopolitan approach to international law (CAIL) reflection on the space development experience of Africa 国际主义的国际法方法（CAIL）对非洲空间发展经验的反思

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy

Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101638

Timiebi Aganaba

Space power theory from the realist school states that the proliferation of space technology is a foe rather than a friend because it contributes to military and economic competition; and, above all, it empowers the exercise of threat of force in, through and from Outer Space. It is thus important to examine questions of justice in one's professional field and locate the analysis of one's practice within wider social, economic, and political context. While law is not justice and simply announces the form of justice sought, the approach taken in this paper is more precisely the lived experience or mental processes of consciousness and its aim begins a conversation to investigate this in a rigorous way. The cognitive act that characterizes the phenomenological reflection is “paying attention.” Therefore, this reflection contemplates the relevance of experience and reflective practice as a valuable methodology for using insights and learning from the past to support the assessment of the present and recommendations for the future. This is applied in the case of over 17 years of personal experience in following the development path of African space programs. The paper concludes that the African case confirms that multi-level governance is an approach that is of importance, and Africa is in a unique position to master this as stakeholders must think about how to engage in space development at all 4 levels: the global, regional, national, and local level.

现实主义学派的空间力量理论指出，空间技术的扩散是敌人而不是朋友，因为它有助于军事和经济竞争；最重要的是，它赋予了在外层空间、通过外层空间和从外层空间行使武力威胁的权力。因此，在一个人的专业领域审视正义问题，并在更广泛的社会、经济和政治背景下对一个人的实践进行分析，是很重要的。虽然法律不是正义，只是宣布寻求正义的形式，但本文采用的方法更准确地说是生活经验或意识的心理过程，其目的是开始一场对话，以一种严格的方式来调查这一点。表征现象学反思的认知行为是“注意”。因此，这一反思考虑了经验和反思实践的相关性，将其作为一种有价值的方法，利用过去的见解和学习来支持对当前的评估和对未来的建议。这适用于我在遵循非洲空间方案发展道路方面超过17年的个人经验。该论文的结论是，非洲的案例证实了多层次治理是一种重要的方法，非洲处于独特的地位，可以掌握这一方法，因为利益相关者必须考虑如何在全球、区域、国家和地方四个层面参与空间开发。

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引用次数: 0

The Importance of ALCE's Role as a Political Actor Rather Than a Coordinator of Regional Space Activities ALCE作为政治行动者而不是区域空间活动协调员的重要性

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy

Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.spacepol.2023.101578

Sandra Cabrera Alvarado

The Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency (ALCE) was formally created in 2020 with the ALCE Agreement signed by 19 countries from the region. ALCE can be considered a major step towards regional integration in the space sector, driven by its members' political willingness. Nevertheless, the integration process does not finish with the signature of the agreement; it's just the start. There are many levels of integration based on previous regional integration case studies such as Asia's Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO), African Space Agency (ASA), and most notably the most advanced European Union/European Space Agency (ESA) case. As ALCE is starting to construct a regional space ambition, the timing demands from its members how far in the integration process they want to go. From an intergovernmental organisation that only decides on cooperative technical space activities to a fullyintegrated organisation with its own regulatory framework enacting a regional space policy and a regional space programme.

Based on the ALCE Agreement, the organisation seems to have only a cooperative role as an intermediary that fosters technical cooperation without political power. This article claims that instead ALCE should go further and seek progressively full integration by shaping a coherent regional space policy by providing the organisation with the political capacity to shape a regional space policy and space programme that addresses the needs of the region in the short-term future.

The article presents, firstly, the political willingness of the two forerunners of the region, Mexico and Argentina, to shape regional integration and an overview of space activities in the region. Secondly, APSCO, ASA and Europe integration/ESA cases are introduced to understand levels of integration for ALCE. Thirdly, it is explained that ALCE's benefits of higher integration, notably spillovers and current regional space activities, will make sure Latin America catches up in the next phase of global space activity.

拉丁美洲和加勒比航天局（ALCE）于2020年正式成立，该地区19个国家签署了《ALCE协议》。在其成员的政治意愿的推动下，外空会议可被视为朝着空间部门区域一体化迈出的重要一步。然而，一体化进程并没有随着协议的签署而结束；这仅仅是个开始。基于以前的区域一体化案例研究，如亚洲的亚太空间合作组织（APSCO）、非洲航天局（ASA），以及最值得注意的最先进的欧洲联盟/欧洲航天局（ESA）案例，有许多层次的一体化。随着ALCE开始构建区域空间雄心，其成员希望在整合过程中走多远取决于时机。从一个只决定合作技术空间活动的政府间组织转变为一个完全一体化的组织，拥有自己的管理框架，制定区域空间政策和区域空间方案。基于ALCE协议，该组织似乎只有一个合作的角色，作为一个中介，促进技术合作，没有政治权力。这篇文章声称，相反，ALCE应该更进一步，通过为该组织提供政治能力，制定一项连贯的区域空间政策和空间方案，以解决该地区在短期内的需求，从而寻求逐步充分的一体化。本文首先介绍了该区域的两个先行者，墨西哥和阿根廷，对区域一体化的政治意愿，并概述了该区域的空间活动。其次，介绍了APSCO、ASA和欧洲一体化/欧空局案例，以了解ALCE的一体化水平。第三，报告解释说，拉丁美洲空间活动的高度一体化的好处，特别是溢出效应和目前的区域空间活动，将确保拉丁美洲在全球空间活动的下一阶段迎头赶上。

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引用次数: 0

Japan in the New Lunar Space Race 新月球太空竞赛中的日本

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy

Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.spacepol.2023.101577

Saadia M. Pekkanen , Setsuko Aoki , Yumiko Takatori

The United States and China draw the most attention in the new lunar space race. But other spacefaring countries are also important to its peaceful evolution. In this paper, we focus on the activities of one of the world's preeminent space powers, which remains underappreciated in academic and policy circles concerned with the lunar landscape—Japan. We provide an overview of Japan's changed law and policy context and illuminate the historical, international, and institutional trajectories that are positioning Japan's role in the unfolding competition over celestial bodies. We conclude with the broader significance of Japan's activities for prosperity, stability, and leadership in the international space order.

在新一轮的月球太空竞赛中，美国和中国最受关注。但其他航天国家对其和平发展也很重要。在本文中，我们关注的是世界上最杰出的太空大国之一的活动，在与月球景观有关的学术和政策圈中，日本仍然没有得到充分的重视。我们概述了日本变化的法律和政策背景，并阐明了日本在天体竞争中定位角色的历史、国际和制度轨迹。最后，我们认为日本的活动对国际空间秩序的繁荣、稳定和领导具有更广泛的意义。

引用次数: 0

Finding space for the European Space Agency 为欧洲航天局寻找空间

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy

Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.spacepol.2024.101637

Sarah Lieberman , Thomas Hoerber

Europe has an interesting history on space policy, drawing on varied agencies through which to pursue its space ambitions since the end of WWII. The best known, and until recently most important, of these is the European Space Agency (ESA), an intergovernmental non-EU institution which oversaw the development of Galileo, Copernicus and EGNOS. Since 2021, a second agency, The European Union Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA), has been in place, taking over the running of the EU’s space Programmes and flagship constellations from the GSA in Prague. This paper discusses the potential future of Europe's institutions for space, and critically analyses Thomas Hoerber's 2022 suggestion that ESA should become a Space University Institute.

欧洲在太空政策方面有一段有趣的历史，二战结束以来，欧洲利用不同的机构来实现其太空野心。其中最著名的，也是最近最重要的，是欧洲航天局（ESA），一个非欧盟的政府间机构，负责监督伽利略、哥白尼和EGNOS的发展。自2021年以来，第二个机构——欧盟空间计划局（EUSPA）已经成立，从布拉格的GSA手中接管了欧盟空间计划和旗舰星座的运营。本文讨论了欧洲空间机构的潜在未来，并批判性地分析了托马斯·霍伯（Thomas Hoerber）在2022年提出的欧空局应该成为太空大学研究所的建议。

引用次数: 0

China's branding problem: Image management and the US-China space relationship 中国的品牌问题：形象管理与中美太空关系

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Space Policy

Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.spacepol.2023.101598

R. Lincoln Hines

What image does China attempt to convey about its space program? And how is its program perceived in the United States? This article argues that as a rising power, China seeks to project a benign image to reassure dominant powers such as the United States of its intentions on Earth and in space. However, Chinese attempts at reassuring the United States have been largely unsuccessful. Factors such as China’s autocratic political system, military-dominated space sector, and bureaucratic politics undermine its image management strategies and ability to reassure. More broadly, China’s growing space ambitions are occurring against the backdrop of an increasingly deteriorating bilateral relationship with the United States. Taken together, these dynamics are exacerbating security dilemma dynamics between the two powers, which may have increasingly dire consequences for stability and governance of the space domain.

关于中国的太空计划，中国试图传达什么样的形象？它的项目在美国是如何被理解的？本文认为，作为一个正在崛起的大国，中国试图树立一个良好的形象，让美国等主导大国放心，中国在地球和太空的意图。然而，中国安抚美国的努力基本上是不成功的。中国的专制政治体制、军事主导的航天部门和官僚政治等因素削弱了其形象管理策略和安抚能力。更广泛地说，中国日益增长的太空野心是在与美国双边关系日益恶化的背景下发生的。总之，这些动态正在加剧两个大国之间的安全困境动态，这可能对太空领域的稳定和治理产生越来越严重的后果。

引用次数: 0