African Journal of Economic and Management Studies最新文献_第4页

Correlations of structural shocks, dynamic responses of output and inflation to commodities price shocks and monetary union in WAMZ 结构性冲击的相关性、产出和通胀对大宗商品价格冲击的动态反应以及WAMZ中的货币联盟

IF 1.3 Q3 ECONOMICS

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

Pub Date : 2023-12-04 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-04-2023-0129

Yahuza Abdul Rahman, Anthony Kofi Osei-Fosu, Daniel Sakyi

Purpose

This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.

Findings

Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.

Practical implications

The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.

Originality/value

The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.

本文研究了从1990年第一季度到2020年第一季度，西非货币区(WAMZ)国家的产出、通货膨胀和贸易对非石油商品价格指数和汇率的一个标准差冲击的冲激反应中潜在结构性冲击的相关性和同步程度。设计/方法/方法本文使用结构向量自回归模型来隔离潜在的结构性冲击，并将其与西非货币联盟(WAEMU)国家进行比较。研究结果表明，与WAMZ相比，WAEMU中潜在结构冲击的相关性更为深刻。产出对价格和汇率冲击的脉冲响应在WAEMU中比在WAMZ中更为对称。然而，通货膨胀对价格和汇率冲击的脉冲反应在WAMZ中比在WAEMU中是对称的，两个子组的贸易反应也不均匀。本文的结论是，就结构性冲击与产出的相关性而言，WAMZ不构成最优货币区。然而，它在通货膨胀方面实现了趋同，而且与西非货币联盟相比，西非货币联盟有足够的调整机制来应对冲击。因此，WAMZ可能不会因为加入货币联盟而受到影响。因此，西非国家经济共同体可能会采取措施推出货币联盟。原创性/价值本文考察了WAMZ中潜在的结构性冲击、产出和通胀对商品价格和汇率冲击的脉冲反应之间的相关性，并将其与WAEMU进行了比较。

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引用次数: 0

Predicting stock market crashes on the African stock markets: evidence from log-periodic power law model 预测非洲股市崩盘:来自对数周期幂律模型的证据

IF 1.3 Q3 ECONOMICS

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-03-2023-0113

Sirine Ben Yaala, Jamel Eddine Henchiri

Purpose

This study aims to predict stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach (current index level relative to historical maximum) during periods of global and local events, namely the subprime crisis of 2008, the political and social instability of 2011 and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

Over the period 2004–2020, a log-periodic power law model (LPPL) has been employed which describes the price dynamics preceding the beginning dates of the crisis. In order to adjust the LPPL model, the Global Search algorithm was developed using the “fmincon” function.

Findings

By minimizing the sum of square errors between the observed logarithmic indices and the LPPL predicted values, the authors find that the estimated parameters satisfy all the constraints imposed in the literature. Moreover, the adjustment line of the LPPL models to the logarithms of the indices closely corresponds to the observed trend of the logarithms of the indices, which was overall bullish before the crashes. The most predicted dates correspond to the start dates of the stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach. Therefore, the forecasted stock market crashes are the results of the bursting of speculative bubbles and, consequently, of the price deviation from their fundamental values.

Practical implications

The adoption of the LPPL model might be very beneficial for financial market participants in reducing their financial crash risk exposure and managing their equity portfolio risk.

Originality/value

This study differs from previous research in several ways. First of all, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the authors' paper is among the first to show stock market crises detection and prediction, specifically in African countries, since they generate recessionary economic and social dynamics on a large extent and on multiple regional and global scales. Second, in this manuscript, the authors employ the LPPL model, which can expect the most probable day of the beginning of the crash by analyzing excessive stock price volatility.

本研究旨在通过CMAX方法(当前指数水平相对于历史最大值)预测全球和局部事件期间的股市崩盘，即2008年次贷危机，2011年政治和社会不稳定以及COVID-19大流行。设计/方法/方法在2004-2020年期间，采用了对数周期幂律模型(LPPL)来描述危机开始日期之前的价格动态。为了调整LPPL模型，利用“fmincon”函数开发了全局搜索算法。通过最小化观测到的对数指数与LPPL预测值之间的误差平方和，作者发现估计参数满足文献中施加的所有约束。此外，LPPL模型对指数对数的调整线与观测到的指数对数趋势非常接近，在崩盘前总体看涨。预测最多的日期与CMAX方法确定的股票市场崩溃的开始日期相对应。因此，预测的股市崩盘是投机泡沫破裂的结果，因此是价格偏离其基本价值的结果。实际意义LPPL模型的采用可能对金融市场参与者减少金融崩溃风险暴露和管理其股票投资组合风险非常有益。原创性/价值本研究在几个方面不同于以往的研究。首先，据作者所知，作者的论文是第一批展示股票市场危机检测和预测的论文之一，特别是在非洲国家，因为它们在很大程度上和在多个区域和全球范围内产生衰退的经济和社会动态。其次，在本文中，作者采用了LPPL模型，该模型可以通过分析股价的过度波动来预测崩盘最可能开始的日期。

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引用次数: 0

How optimal is Ghana's single-digit inflation targeting? An assessment of monetary policy effectiveness in Ghana 加纳的个位数通胀目标有多理想?加纳货币政策有效性评估

IF 1.3 Q3 ECONOMICS

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-03-2023-0119

Richard Amoatey, Richard K. Ayisi, Eric Osei-Assibey

Purpose

The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to estimate an optimal inflation rate for Ghana and second, to investigate factors that account for the differences between observed and target inflation.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper explored the questions within two econometric frameworks, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Threshold Regression Models using data spanning the period 1965–2019.

Findings

The study estimated a range of 5–7% optimal inflation for Ghana. While this confirms the single-digit inflation targeting by the Bank of Ghana, the range is lower than the central bank's band of 6–10%. The combined behaviours of the central bank, banks and external outlook influence inflation target misses.

Practical implications

The study urges the central bank to continue pursuing its single-digit inflation targeting. However, it implies that there is still room for the Bank to further lower the current inflation band to achieve an optimal outcome on growth and welfare. Again, the Bank should commit to increased transparency and accountability to enhance its credibility in attaining the targeted inflation.

Originality/value

The study is one of the first attempts in Africa in Ghana to estimate an optimal inflation target and investigate the underlying factors for deviation from the targets.

本研究的目的是双重的。首先，估计加纳的最佳通货膨胀率，其次，调查导致观察到的通货膨胀率和目标通货膨胀率之间差异的因素。本文利用1965年至2019年期间的数据，在两个计量经济学框架(自回归分布滞后(ARDL)和阈值回归模型)中探讨了这些问题。研究结果估计，加纳的最佳通货膨胀率为5-7%。虽然这证实了加纳银行的个位数通胀目标，但这一范围低于央行6-10%的区间。央行、银行和外部前景的综合行为影响通胀目标的缺失。实际意义该研究敦促央行继续追求个位数的通胀目标。然而，这意味着英国央行仍有进一步降低当前通胀区间的空间，以实现经济增长和福利的最佳结果。再次，央行应致力于提高透明度和问责制，以提高其在实现目标通胀方面的可信度。原创性/价值本研究是非洲首次尝试在加纳估计最佳通胀目标，并调查偏离目标的潜在因素之一。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding generational differences for financial inclusion in Kenya 了解肯尼亚金融包容性的代际差异

IF 1.3 Q3 ECONOMICS

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-09-2022-0391

Lilian Korir, Dieu Hack-Polay

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect the five different generations and the key financial inclusion indicators of gender, education and location (rural–urban) in exacerbating disparities in financial inclusion in Kenya. This paper considers whether the five generational cohort groups in Kenya differ on the financial inclusion determinants and behaviour as predicted by common generational stereotypes.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors applied a multinomial logistic regression approach to nationally representative household survey data from Kenya to estimate the effect that key financial inclusion indicators have on belonging to one of the five generations: Z, Y, X, baby boomers and traditionalists.

Findings

The authors found significant links between all tested variables and financial inclusion. The authors found an access gap between Generations X and Y, with the latter being more prone to access and use financial services and products. These differences are compounded by gender and rurality. People in rural locations and women generally were found to have less access to financial services and products, thus causing significant exclusion of a large proportion of the population.

Practical implications

The research has important implications for governments, financial institutions and educational providers, notably on targeted policies and programmes that strategically aim to eliminate disparities and promote greater financial inclusion, denoting the value of such variables as generational differences and gender inclusivity.

Originality/value

This paper deepens the understanding of differences that can divide generations on financial inclusion.

本文的目的是估计五代人以及性别、教育和地理位置(城乡)等关键普惠金融指标在加剧肯尼亚普惠金融差距方面的影响。本文考虑了肯尼亚的五代队列群体是否在金融包容性决定因素和行为上存在差异，正如共同的世代刻板印象所预测的那样。设计/方法/方法作者对肯尼亚具有全国代表性的家庭调查数据采用了多项逻辑回归方法，以估计关键金融包容性指标对属于五代人之一的影响:Z、Y、X、婴儿潮一代和传统主义者。作者发现，所有测试变量与金融包容性之间存在显著联系。两位作者发现，X世代和Y世代在获取金融服务和产品方面存在差距，后者更倾向于获取和使用金融服务和产品。这些差异因性别和农村而更加复杂。农村地区的人民和妇女一般获得金融服务和产品的机会较少，因此造成很大一部分人口被排除在外。该研究对政府、金融机构和教育提供者具有重要意义，特别是在有针对性的政策和计划方面，这些政策和计划的战略目标是消除差距和促进更大的金融包容性，这表明了代际差异和性别包容性等变量的价值。本文加深了对普惠金融代际差异的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Book review: How to succeed as an entrepreneur in Africa: a practical guide and cases 书评:《如何在非洲成功创业:实用指南与案例》

Q3 ECONOMICS

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-09-2023-579

Nnamdi O. Madichie

引用次数: 0

What happens after product rebranding: understanding the interrelational effect of brand attachment, brand distinctiveness and consumer attitudes on brand loyalty 产品品牌重塑后会发生什么:了解品牌依恋、品牌独特性和消费者态度对品牌忠诚度的相互关系效应

Q3 ECONOMICS

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-06-2023-0216

Isaac Mensah, Yaw Brew

Purpose Product rebranding is increasingly popular, but brand managers are sceptical about its implications on brand loyalty (BL). Given the limited empirical literature on the subject, this study examines the interrelational effect of brand attachment (BA), brand distinctiveness (BD) and consumer attitudes (CA) towards product rebranding on brand loyalty (BL). Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the quantitative survey design and used questionnaire to gather data from 349 consumers of rebranded water, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. Structural equation modelling was used to analyse the data. This study integrates psychology theories into brand management research to propose and test a holistic model. Findings The study found a significant effect of BA on CA toward product rebranding, and CA toward product rebranding fully mediates the relationship between BA and BL. Furthermore, BD has a significant effect on BL, and further moderates the relationship between BA and BL. Originality/value This study offers a fresh theoretical foundation, conceptual clarity and understanding of how rebranding specific brand elements affect the attitudes and BL of consumers who are emotionally connected to a brand. This paper offers practical insights into the implication of product rebranding on CA, BD and BL. It reveals a holistic guidance to brand managers on how to use their unique knowledge about their consumers to create distinctive brands and emotional affection, passion and connections to their brands.

产品重塑品牌越来越受欢迎，但品牌经理对其对品牌忠诚度(BL)的影响持怀疑态度。鉴于这一主题的实证文献有限，本研究考察了品牌依恋(BA)、品牌独特性(BD)和消费者对产品重塑的态度(CA)对品牌忠诚度(BL)的相互关系影响。设计/方法/方法本研究采用定量调查设计，采用问卷调查的方式，对349名饮用更名水、酒精饮料和非酒精饮料的消费者进行数据收集。采用结构方程模型对数据进行分析。本研究将心理学理论融入品牌管理研究，提出并检验一个整体模型。研究发现，品牌行为对产品品牌再造行为的影响显著，品牌行为对产品品牌再造行为的影响充分中介了品牌行为对品牌行为的影响，而品牌行为对品牌行为的影响显著，并进一步调节了品牌行为对品牌行为的影响。概念清晰度和理解重塑特定品牌元素如何影响与品牌有情感联系的消费者的态度和BL。本文对产品品牌重塑对CA、BD和BL的影响提供了实际的见解。它为品牌经理提供了一个全面的指导，告诉他们如何利用他们对消费者的独特了解来创造独特的品牌，以及与品牌的情感、激情和联系。

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引用次数: 0

Foreign bank presence and inclusive growth in Africa: the moderating role of financial development 外资银行在非洲的存在与包容性增长:金融发展的调节作用

Q3 ECONOMICS

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-11-2022-0444

Khadijah Iddrisu, Joshua Yindenaba Abor, Thadious Kannyiri Banyen

Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess the extent to which the nexus between foreign bank presence (FBP) and inclusive growth is being impacted by the financial development. Design/methodology/approach The study used a two-stage system generalized method of moment (GMM), using 28 African countries from the period 2000 to 2018. Findings The study found a positive effect of FBP on inclusive growth. While financial development magnifies the positive effect of FBP, inclusive growth nexus, it has a direct effect on inclusive growth. Practical implications For Africa to ascertain the positive effect of FBP on inclusive growth, financial system must be developed to reduce the cream-skim behavior of foreign banks. Originality/value This paper assess the extent to which developing economy's developed financial system form synergies with FBP to further enhance the inclusiveness of growth.

本研究的目的是评估外资银行存在(FBP)与包容性增长之间的关系受到金融发展影响的程度。该研究使用了两阶段系统广义矩法(GMM)，研究对象是2000年至2018年期间的28个非洲国家。研究发现，财政政策对包容性增长具有积极的促进作用。金融发展放大了包容性增长纽带FBP的正向效应，对包容性增长有直接影响。对于非洲来说，为了确定FBP对包容性增长的积极影响，必须发展金融体系以减少外国银行的奶油脱脂行为。原创性/价值本文评估了发展中经济体的发达金融体系与FBP形成协同效应以进一步增强增长包容性的程度。

引用次数: 0

Agricultural loan pricing by banks in Ghana: a panel data analysis 加纳银行农业贷款定价:面板数据分析

Q3 ECONOMICS

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

Pub Date : 2023-10-13 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-12-2022-0504

Raymond K. Dziwornu, Eric B. Yiadom, Sampson B. Narteh-yoe

Purpose The cost of agricultural loans is a major constraint to the growth of the agriculture sector. This paper examines agricultural loan pricing by banks in Ghana using panel data analysis. Design/methodology/approach Data were obtained from audited financial reports of 15 agricultural loan lending banks from 2010 to 2017. The study applies the random-effect model and the fixed-effect model in the analysis and uses the system generalized system method of moment to check the robustness of the results from the baseline models. Findings The study found that agricultural loan pricing by banks is significantly influenced by risk premium, cost of funds, loan impairment, agricultural growth rate and food inflation. Banks should leverage emerging technologies to de-risk agriculture loan pricing to allay the fear of default. Farmers should look for long-term and relatively cheaper funds to support agricultural loans. Increasing credit to the agricultural sector could increase output, thereby reducing food inflation uncertainty for competitive pricing of agricultural loans. Originality/value Agriculture employs about 52% of Ghana's labor force, contributing about 20% to GDP. But it is “under” financed. This study leads the way in unraveling the factors accounting for the high prices of agricultural loans in Ghana. This study further contributes to policy development toward increasing credit to the agricultural sector.

农业贷款成本是制约农业部门发展的主要因素。本文采用面板数据分析对加纳银行的农业贷款定价进行了研究。数据来源于15家农业贷款银行2010 - 2017年经审计的财务报告。本研究采用随机效应模型和固定效应模型进行分析，并采用系统广义系统矩法对基线模型结果的稳健性进行检验。研究发现，银行农业贷款定价受到风险溢价、资金成本、贷款减值、农业增长率和食品通胀的显著影响。银行应利用新兴技术降低农业贷款定价的风险，以减轻对违约的担忧。农民应该寻找长期和相对便宜的资金来支持农业贷款。增加对农业部门的信贷可以增加产出，从而减少粮食通胀对农业贷款竞争性定价的不确定性。农业雇佣了约52%的加纳劳动力，贡献了约20%的GDP。但它的资金“不足”。这项研究在揭示加纳农业贷款高价格的因素方面发挥了带头作用。这项研究进一步有助于制定增加农业部门信贷的政策。

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引用次数: 1

Non-linearity in the Phillips curve: evidence from Nigeria 菲利普斯曲线的非线性:来自尼日利亚的证据

Q3 ECONOMICS

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-10-2022-0418

Olufemi Gbenga Onatunji, Oluwayemisi Kadijat Adeleke, Akintoye Victor Adejumo

Purpose This study reinvestigates the validity of the Phillips curve in Nigeria for the period 1980–2020 by considering the asymmetric nexus between unemployment and inflation. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique was used to decompose the unemployment variable into two components: tight and loosened labour markets. Findings The empirical outcome shows that unemployment has a significant negative effect on inflation when the labour market is tight and a weakly negative and significant effect on inflation when the labour market is loose. The study confirms an asymmetric Phillips curve in Nigeria since the positive (tight) unemployment rate exerts a greater effect on inflation than the negative (loosened) unemployment rate. Practical implications The findings of this study have important implications for implementing monetary policy in Nigeria. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the existence of a nonlinear Phillip curve in Nigeria.

本研究通过考虑失业率和通货膨胀之间的不对称关系，重新考察了1980-2020年尼日利亚菲利普斯曲线的有效性。设计/方法/方法使用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)技术将失业变量分解为两个组成部分:紧缩和宽松的劳动力市场。实证结果表明，当劳动力市场紧张时，失业对通胀有显著的负向影响;当劳动力市场宽松时，失业对通胀有微弱的显著负向影响。该研究证实了尼日利亚的不对称菲利普斯曲线，因为正(紧)失业率比负(松)失业率对通胀的影响更大。本研究的结果对尼日利亚实施货币政策具有重要意义。原创性/价值据作者所知，这是第一个调查尼日利亚非线性菲利普曲线存在的研究。

引用次数: 0

State-business relations for entrepreneurial takeoff in Africa: institutional analysis 非洲企业起飞的国商关系:制度分析

Q3 ECONOMICS

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies

Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-10-2022-0402

Farhad Hossain, Aminu Mamman, Emmanuel Yeboah-Assiamah, Christopher J. Rees

Purpose Reports and experiences suggest that several developing African economies are faced with entrepreneurial-impeding forces such as lengthy bureaucratic processes and poor regulatory space. The study examines a general trend in “doing business performance” among selected African countries and uses the case of Ghana to explore how particular indicators or forces affect the development and deployment of small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) policies. Design/methodology/approach Comparative analysis of six African economies on their ease of doing business score. This is followed by a critical review of the literature to develop a six-point explanatory framework to explore the relative position of the six countries on the ease of doing business scores. Using Ghana as a critical case study, the authors deploy an in-depth case study analysis via in-depth interviews of relevant stakeholders to validate the information from secondary sources. Findings The study observes that the nature of leadership, socio-cultural imperatives, economic structure and policy and the role of domestic institutional players and international players have implications for the extent to which the state creates an enabling environment for SMEs and entrepreneurial activities. The role of supportive cultural software that will help drive SME and entrepreneurial growth has been established. The study contends that different aspects of national culture do have implications for the tendency for people to be business-minded or to have the ability to take risks. The demand and supply sides are crucial in promoting SME growth. Originality/value The study develops a framework that helps explore elements to help explain ease of doing business scores and the viability of SMEs in Africa. These elements were validated through qualitative interviews as well.

报告和经验表明，一些发展中非洲经济体面临着阻碍创业的力量，如冗长的官僚程序和监管空间不足。本研究考察了选定非洲国家“营商表现”的总体趋势，并以加纳为例，探讨了特定指标或力量如何影响中小企业政策的制定和部署。设计/方法/方法对六个非洲经济体的营商便利度得分进行比较分析。接下来是对文献的批判性回顾，以制定一个六点解释框架，以探索六个国家在营商便利度得分上的相对位置。使用加纳作为关键案例研究，作者通过对相关利益相关者的深入访谈进行了深入的案例研究分析，以验证二手来源的信息。研究发现，领导的性质、社会文化需求、经济结构和政策，以及国内机构参与者和国际参与者的作用，对国家为中小企业和创业活动创造有利环境的程度有影响。支持性文化软件的作用已经确立，它将有助于推动中小企业和企业的成长。该研究认为，民族文化的不同方面确实对人们具有商业头脑或冒险能力的倾向有影响。需求侧和供给侧对促进中小企业发展至关重要。独创性/价值该研究开发了一个框架，有助于探索有助于解释非洲中小企业营商便利度得分和生存能力的因素。这些因素也通过定性访谈得到了验证。

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引用次数: 0