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Organizational justice, job satisfaction and academic rank: a moderating mediation study on employee commitment in Ethiopian public universities 组织公正、工作满意度和学术排名:埃塞俄比亚公立大学员工承诺的调节性中介研究
IF 1.3 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-02-2023-0047
Ramakrishna Gollagari, Temesgen Birega, S. Mishra
PurposeOrganizational justice and its impact on employee commitment have received a lot of attention these days. The objective of this study is to see the effect of job satisfaction as a mediator in the relationship between organizational justice and employee commitment. Also, the role of academic rank as a moderator in the model is probed.Design/methodology/approachA moderating mediation structural equation model was used for randomly collected cross-section data on 285 employees from public universities in Ethiopia. Necessary condition analysis (NCA) was employed to check the importance of the variables. The Gaussian copula approach was used to check endogeneity in the structural model.FindingsNCA confirms the importance of organizational justice and employee satisfaction as the independent variables. The Gaussian copula approach reveals no endogeneity problems in the structural model. The results supported the partial mediating role of job satisfaction in organizational justice and academic staff’s commitment. Moreover, though staff rank is not a necessary condition, it plays the role of moderator in the relationship between academic staff’s job satisfaction and commitment.Practical implicationsThis paper affirms that public institutions must implement fair initiatives and procedures to promote academic staff satisfaction and commitment.Originality/valueThis is the first study to check the job rank as a moderator in the model comprising organization justice, employee commitment and satisfaction. Moreover, application of NCA and Gaussian copula adds to methodological innovation.
目的组织公正及其对员工承诺的影响如今已受到广泛关注。本研究旨在探讨工作满意度作为组织公正与员工承诺之间关系的中介的影响。设计/方法/途径对随机收集的埃塞俄比亚公立大学 285 名员工的横截面数据采用了调节中介结构方程模型。采用必要条件分析法(NCA)检查变量的重要性。研究结果NCA 证实了组织公正和员工满意度作为自变量的重要性。高斯共轭法显示结构模型中不存在内生性问题。结果支持了工作满意度在组织公正和学术人员承诺中的部分中介作用。此外,虽然员工职级不是必要条件,但它在学术人员的工作满意度和承诺之间的关系中起到了调节作用。本文肯定了公共机构必须实施公平的举措和程序来促进学术人员的满意度和承诺。此外,NCA 和高斯 copula 的应用也增加了方法上的创新。
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引用次数: 0
Green marketing mix and repurchase intention: the role of green knowledge 绿色营销组合与再购买意向:绿色知识的作用
IF 1.3 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-04-2023-0137
Mahmoud Abdulai Mahmoud, Alimatu Sadia Seidu, Ernest Yaw Tweneboah-Koduah, Abdul Salam Ahmed

Purpose

This study investigated the effect of green marketing mix on consumer repurchase intention in Ghana. The study focusses on the interaction effect of green knowledge on green marketing mix and consumer repurchase in Ghana.

Design/methodology/approach

A quantitative approach to research was employed. In all, 371 participants were chosen using the purposive sampling technique. Data analysis was conducted using the SPSS software.

Findings

The findings showed that green price, green place and green promotion had a positive significant effect on repurchase intention. However, green product insignificantly influenced repurchase intention. The findings further showed that green knowledge moderated the relationship between green price and green place, on repurchase intention. Green knowledge was not found to moderate the relationship between green product, green promotion and repurchase intention.

Originality/value

The study advances our knowledge on green marketing mix, green knowledge and repurchase intention within the beverage sector. It reveals the positive implication of green marketing mix on a firm’s customers using the marketing mix theory.

目的本研究调查了加纳绿色营销组合对消费者回购意向的影响。研究重点是绿色知识对加纳绿色营销组合和消费者再购买意愿的交互影响。采用目的性抽样技术共选取了 371 名参与者。研究结果研究结果表明,绿色价格、绿色场所和绿色促销对回购意向有积极的显著影响。然而,绿色产品对再购买意愿的影响并不明显。研究结果进一步表明,绿色知识调节了绿色价格和绿色场所对再购买意愿的影响。原创性/价值这项研究增进了我们对饮料行业绿色营销组合、绿色知识和再购意向的了解。它利用营销组合理论揭示了绿色营销组合对企业客户的积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting the delight–loyalty link in a retail banking context – an emerging market perspective 从新兴市场角度重新审视零售银行业务中愉悦与忠诚之间的联系
IF 1.3 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-06-2023-0211
Mornay Roberts-Lombard, Charles Makanyeza, Olumide Jaiyeoba, Tendai Douglas Svotwa

Purpose

This study uses relationship marketing theory to explore affective and calculative commitment as mediators in the delight–loyalty link. Furthermore, it investigates the role of perceived employee service delivery skills, perceived value and trust in the relationships between delight, affective commitment, calculative commitment and loyalty.

Design/methodology/approach

A descriptive research approach was applied, and the data were collected from 332 retail banking customers in an emergent market who are overall satisfied with their bank. A self-administered questionnaire collected data from 332 respondents who adhered to the stipulated requirements to participate in the study. These respondents were selected through purposive and convenience sampling. The constructs’ interrelationships were analysed via structural equation modelling. The measurement and structural models were also assessed.

Findings

Affective and calculative commitment and delight impact loyalty. Both affective commitment and calculative commitment were found to mediate the relationship between delight and customer loyalty.

Research limitations/implications

The study enhances an understanding of the role of affective and calculative commitment in strengthening the delight–loyalty link from a relationship marketing theory perspective.

Practical implications

The study provides guidance to the retail banking industry in emerging markets on the importance of affective and calculative commitment in strengthening the delight–loyalty link. It further informs retail banks of the need to provide banking customers with products and service value that exceed their expectations to strengthen their future commitment and loyalty to their bank.

Originality/value

Guided by relationship marketing theory, the role of affective and calculative commitment in mediating the delight–loyalty link in an emerging market context is uncovered.

目的 本研究运用关系营销理论,探讨情感承诺和计算承诺在愉悦-忠诚之间的中介作用。此外,本研究还探讨了感知到的员工服务技能、感知到的价值和信任在愉悦、情感承诺、计算承诺和忠诚之间关系中的作用。研究采用自填式问卷调查法,从 332 名符合规定要求的受访者中收集数据。这些受访者是通过目的性和便利性抽样选出的。通过结构方程模型分析了各构念之间的相互关系。研究结果情感承诺和计算承诺以及愉悦对忠诚度的影响。研究的局限性/意义这项研究从关系营销理论的角度加深了人们对情感承诺和计算承诺在加强愉悦-忠诚联系中的作用的理解。实践意义这项研究就情感承诺和计算承诺在加强愉悦-忠诚联系中的重要性为新兴市场的零售银行业提供了指导。原创性/价值以关系营销理论为指导,揭示了情感承诺和计算承诺在新兴市场背景下调解愉悦-忠诚联系的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Capital adequacy, competition and liquidity creation of banks; evidence from Kenya 银行的资本充足率、竞争和流动性创造;肯尼亚的证据
IF 1.3 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-29 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-02-2023-0048
Dennis Muchuki Kinini, Peter Wang’ombe Kariuki, Kennedy Nyabuto Ocharo

Purpose

The study seeks to evaluate the effect of capital adequacy and competition on the liquidity creation of Kenyan commercial banks.

Design/methodology/approach

Unbalanced panel data from 36 Kenyan commercial banks with licenses from 2001 to 2020 is used in the study. The generalized method of moments (GMM), a two-step system, is employed in the investigation. To increase the robustness and prevent erroneous findings, serial correlation tests and instrumental validity analyses are used. The methodology developed by Berger and Bouwman (2009) is used to estimate the commercial banks' levels of liquidity creation.

Findings

The study supports the financial fragility-crowding out hypothesis by finding a significant negative effect of capital adequacy on the liquidity creation of commercial banks. The research also identifies a significant inverse relationship between competition and liquidity creation, depicting competition's value-destroying effect.

Practical implications

A trade-off exists between capital adequacy and liquidity creation, which must be carefully evaluated as changes in capital requirements are considered. The value-destroying effect of competition on liquidity creation presents a case for policy geared toward consolidating banks' operations through possible mergers and acquisitions.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to empirically offer evidence concurrently on the effect of competition and capital adequacy on the liquidity creation of commercial banks in a developing economy such as Kenya. Additionally, the authors employ a novel measure of competition at the firm level.

本研究旨在评估资本充足率和竞争对肯尼亚商业银行流动性创造的影响。研究采用了 36 家肯尼亚商业银行 2001 年至 2020 年的非平衡面板数据。研究中采用了广义矩方法(GMM),这是一种两步系统。为提高稳健性并防止错误结论,使用了序列相关性检验和工具有效性分析。研究发现资本充足率对商业银行流动性创造有显著的负面影响,从而支持了金融脆弱性--挤出假说。研究还发现竞争与流动性创造之间存在显著的反向关系,这说明竞争具有价值破坏效应。实际意义资本充足率与流动性创造之间存在权衡,在考虑资本要求变化时必须对此进行仔细评估。竞争对创造流动性的价值破坏效应为通过可能的兼并和收购来整合银行业务的政策提供了依据。 原创性/价值 据作者所知,这是第一项同时就竞争和资本充足性对肯尼亚等发展中经济体商业银行创造流动性的影响提供实证证据的研究。此外,作者还在公司层面采用了一种新的竞争衡量标准。
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引用次数: 0
Innovation capability, strategic flexibility and SME performance: the roles of competitive advantage and competitive intensity 创新能力、战略灵活性和中小企业绩效:竞争优势和竞争强度的作用
IF 1.3 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-01-26 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-06-2023-0221
Innocent Otache

Purpose

This study aims to explore the mediating role of competitive advantage and the moderating role of competitive intensity in the relationship between innovation capability (IC) and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) performance and between strategic flexibility (SF) and SME performance.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopted a survey research design. The data were collected from a conveniently selected sample of 159 SMEs in Nigeria using a self-reported questionnaire. Mediation and moderation analyses were performed using Hayes' PROCESS macro v3.

Findings

Results showed that IC and SF positively affect SME performance. Also, competitive advantage significantly mediates the relationship between IC and SME performance and between SF and SME performance. Additionally, competitive intensity positively and significantly moderates the relationship between IC and SME performance but fails to significantly moderate the relationship between SF and SME performance.

Practical implications

The findings have managerial implications for SME owners and managers. The findings suggest the need for SMEs to develop more IC and increase their SF. Thus, SME owners and managers should invest more in developing IC and SF. More specifically, they should invest more in research and development, the development of intellectual capital (consisting of human capital, structural capital and relational capital) and new technologies, products, services and processes. Also, they should nurture an innovation culture, encourage creative and innovative acts and allow employees to experiment with new ideas without hindrances.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first to provide empirical evidence of the mediating role of competitive advantage and the moderating role of competitive intensity in the relationship between IC and SME performance and between SF and SME performance in the context of emerging economies such as Nigeria. The study validates dynamic capabilities theory by demonstrating that IC and SF are dynamic capabilities that give SMEs a competitive advantage and enhance their performance.

目的 本研究旨在探讨竞争优势在创新能力(IC)与中小型企业(SME)绩效之间以及战略灵活性(SF)与中小型企业绩效之间的中介作用和竞争强度的调节作用。数据是从尼日利亚 159 家中小型企业中方便抽取的样本中收集的,使用的是自我报告问卷。研究结果表明,集成电路和可持续金融对中小企业绩效有积极影响。同时,竞争优势在很大程度上调节了集成电路与中小型企业绩效之间以及可持续发展与中小型企业绩效之间的关系。此外,竞争强度对集成电路与中小企业绩效之间的关系起到了积极的调节作用,但对可持续能源与中小企业绩效之间的关系没有起到积极的调节作用。研究结果表明,中小型企业需要发展更多的集成电路并提高其可持续发展能力。因此,中小企业所有者和管理者应加大对集成电路和可持续发展的投资。更具体地说,他们应更多地投资于研发、智力资本(包括人力资本、结构资本和关系资本)的开发以及新技术、新产品、新服务和新工艺。原创性/价值 据作者所知,在尼日利亚等新兴经济体的背景下,本研究首次提供了经验证据,证明竞争优势在集成电路与中小企业绩效之间以及可持续发展与中小企业绩效之间的中介作用,以及竞争强度在集成电路与中小企业绩效之间以及可持续发展与中小企业绩效之间的调节作用。该研究通过证明集成电路和可持续能源是赋予中小企业竞争优势并提高其绩效的动态能力,验证了动态能力理论。
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引用次数: 0
Economic recovery through the money supply and public spending in Morocco: an empirical investigation 摩洛哥通过货币供应和公共开支实现经济复苏:一项经验调查
IF 1.3 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-04-2023-0134
Jihane Benkhaira, Hafid El Hassani

Purpose

The present article aims to estimate an autoregressive vector model covering the period of 1990–2021 to analyze the effect of public spending and monetary supply increases in economic activity in Morocco.

Design/methodology/approach

A literature review on the policy of recovery with fiscal and monetary tools and its theoretical foundations was established. Then, an empirical study on the Moroccan context was executed to study the effectiveness of these instruments in Morocco from 1990 to 2021, using autoregressive vector modeling.

Findings

The results present a state of a positive relationship and statistical significance of public spending, money supply and economic growth. The impulse response function analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition showed that public spending does not have a large impact on gross domestic product, while the money supply has a real power to stimulate the growth of economic activity in Morocco.

Originality/value

This study aims to demonstrate the positive effect of the coordination of public spending and monetary supply increases on gross domestic product in Morocco. Additionally, the analysis using vector autoregressive modeling, impulse response functions, variance decomposition techniques and causality tests, provides crucial insights to guide researchers, practitioners and policymakers in developing more effective and resilient economic strategies. The findings from this study not only illuminate immediate recovery strategies but also contribute to strengthening the resilience of economies against potential future shocks.

本文旨在估算 1990-2021 年期间的自回归向量模型,以分析公共开支和货币供应增加对摩洛哥经济活动的影响。然后,利用自回归向量模型,对摩洛哥的情况进行了实证研究,以研究 1990 年至 2021 年这些工具在摩洛哥的有效性。脉冲响应函数分析和预测误差方差分解显示,公共支出对国内生产总值的影响不大,而货币供应量对刺激摩洛哥经济活动的增长具有实际作用。此外,利用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解技术和因果关系检验进行的分析为研究人员、从业人员和政策制定者提供了重要的见解,以指导他们制定更有效、更有弹性的经济战略。这项研究的结果不仅阐明了当前的恢复战略,还有助于加强经济体抵御未来潜在冲击的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring practices that impact women’s career advancement within the workplace: a qualitative approach 探索影响妇女在工作场所职业发展的做法:定性方法
IF 1.3 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-05-2023-0164
Gaelle Fitong Ketchiwou, Matsidiso Nehemia Naong

Purpose

This study aims to explore organizational factors that impact women’s career advancement. Knowledge of organizational practices that promote or obstruct women’s career progress is vital for women, firms and governments.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 237 women participated in the study from the service sector in Johannesburg (South Africa). Participants were selected using a convenient sampling approach. Researchers used a questionnaire, consisting of demographic and open-ended questions, to gather data. Comments were analyzed using a thematic content analysis approach.

Findings

Findings reveal that prioritizing women, offering skills development opportunities, providing growth opportunities, assisting women in managing their careers, offering mentorship and having work-family support initiatives are practices that promote women’s career advancement. Conversely, practices that foster stagnation of women’s careers, distrust in women’s leadership abilities, preference for external candidates, people–related malpractices, male domination/preference, lack of role models and work-family balance support, hamper women’s career advancement.

Practical implications

The findings of this study will contribute to women’s empowerment. Organizations should provide a conducive atmosphere by instituting practices that promote their female employees' career advancement. Firms also should intentionally take practical steps to address practices that impede women’s career progression. The results of this study will also help the government to design appropriate policies that will promote the career progression of women employees.

Originality/value

This study presents findings from an analysis of qualitative data collected from 237 women to provide insight into the experiences of women working within the service industry in Johannesburg, South Africa.

本研究旨在探讨影响妇女职业发展的组织因素。了解促进或阻碍女性职业发展的组织实践对女性、企业和政府都至关重要。设计/方法/途径共有 237 名来自约翰内斯堡(南非)服务行业的女性参与了研究。研究人员采用方便抽样的方法选取参与者。研究人员使用由人口统计学和开放式问题组成的问卷收集数据。研究结果研究结果表明,优先考虑妇女、提供技能发展机会、提供成长机会、协助妇女管理其职业生涯、提供指导和工作与家庭支持措施是促进妇女职业发展的做法。相反,助长妇女职业停滞不前、不信任妇女的领导能力、偏爱外部候选人、与人有关的不当做法、男性主导/偏爱、缺乏榜样和工作与家庭平衡支持等做法则会阻碍妇女的职业发展。各组织应通过制定促进女性员工职业发展的措施来营造有利的氛围。企业还应有意识地采取切实可行的措施,解决阻碍女性职业发展的做法。本研究的结果还将有助于政府制定适当的政策,以促进女员工的职业发展。 本研究通过对从 237 名妇女那里收集到的定性数据进行分析,提供了有关在南非约翰内斯堡服务业工作的妇女的经验的深入分析结果。
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引用次数: 0
Correlations of structural shocks, dynamic responses of output and inflation to commodities price shocks and monetary union in WAMZ 结构性冲击的相关性、产出和通胀对大宗商品价格冲击的动态反应以及WAMZ中的货币联盟
IF 1.3 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-12-04 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-04-2023-0129
Yahuza Abdul Rahman, Anthony Kofi Osei-Fosu, Daniel Sakyi

Purpose

This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.

Findings

Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.

Practical implications

The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.

Originality/value

The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.

本文研究了从1990年第一季度到2020年第一季度,西非货币区(WAMZ)国家的产出、通货膨胀和贸易对非石油商品价格指数和汇率的一个标准差冲击的冲激反应中潜在结构性冲击的相关性和同步程度。设计/方法/方法本文使用结构向量自回归模型来隔离潜在的结构性冲击,并将其与西非货币联盟(WAEMU)国家进行比较。研究结果表明,与WAMZ相比,WAEMU中潜在结构冲击的相关性更为深刻。产出对价格和汇率冲击的脉冲响应在WAEMU中比在WAMZ中更为对称。然而,通货膨胀对价格和汇率冲击的脉冲反应在WAMZ中比在WAEMU中是对称的,两个子组的贸易反应也不均匀。本文的结论是,就结构性冲击与产出的相关性而言,WAMZ不构成最优货币区。然而,它在通货膨胀方面实现了趋同,而且与西非货币联盟相比,西非货币联盟有足够的调整机制来应对冲击。因此,WAMZ可能不会因为加入货币联盟而受到影响。因此,西非国家经济共同体可能会采取措施推出货币联盟。原创性/价值本文考察了WAMZ中潜在的结构性冲击、产出和通胀对商品价格和汇率冲击的脉冲反应之间的相关性,并将其与WAEMU进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting stock market crashes on the African stock markets: evidence from log-periodic power law model 预测非洲股市崩盘:来自对数周期幂律模型的证据
IF 1.3 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-03-2023-0113
Sirine Ben Yaala, Jamel Eddine Henchiri

Purpose

This study aims to predict stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach (current index level relative to historical maximum) during periods of global and local events, namely the subprime crisis of 2008, the political and social instability of 2011 and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

Over the period 2004–2020, a log-periodic power law model (LPPL) has been employed which describes the price dynamics preceding the beginning dates of the crisis. In order to adjust the LPPL model, the Global Search algorithm was developed using the “fmincon” function.

Findings

By minimizing the sum of square errors between the observed logarithmic indices and the LPPL predicted values, the authors find that the estimated parameters satisfy all the constraints imposed in the literature. Moreover, the adjustment line of the LPPL models to the logarithms of the indices closely corresponds to the observed trend of the logarithms of the indices, which was overall bullish before the crashes. The most predicted dates correspond to the start dates of the stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach. Therefore, the forecasted stock market crashes are the results of the bursting of speculative bubbles and, consequently, of the price deviation from their fundamental values.

Practical implications

The adoption of the LPPL model might be very beneficial for financial market participants in reducing their financial crash risk exposure and managing their equity portfolio risk.

Originality/value

This study differs from previous research in several ways. First of all, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the authors' paper is among the first to show stock market crises detection and prediction, specifically in African countries, since they generate recessionary economic and social dynamics on a large extent and on multiple regional and global scales. Second, in this manuscript, the authors employ the LPPL model, which can expect the most probable day of the beginning of the crash by analyzing excessive stock price volatility.

本研究旨在通过CMAX方法(当前指数水平相对于历史最大值)预测全球和局部事件期间的股市崩盘,即2008年次贷危机,2011年政治和社会不稳定以及COVID-19大流行。设计/方法/方法在2004-2020年期间,采用了对数周期幂律模型(LPPL)来描述危机开始日期之前的价格动态。为了调整LPPL模型,利用“fmincon”函数开发了全局搜索算法。通过最小化观测到的对数指数与LPPL预测值之间的误差平方和,作者发现估计参数满足文献中施加的所有约束。此外,LPPL模型对指数对数的调整线与观测到的指数对数趋势非常接近,在崩盘前总体看涨。预测最多的日期与CMAX方法确定的股票市场崩溃的开始日期相对应。因此,预测的股市崩盘是投机泡沫破裂的结果,因此是价格偏离其基本价值的结果。实际意义LPPL模型的采用可能对金融市场参与者减少金融崩溃风险暴露和管理其股票投资组合风险非常有益。原创性/价值本研究在几个方面不同于以往的研究。首先,据作者所知,作者的论文是第一批展示股票市场危机检测和预测的论文之一,特别是在非洲国家,因为它们在很大程度上和在多个区域和全球范围内产生衰退的经济和社会动态。其次,在本文中,作者采用了LPPL模型,该模型可以通过分析股价的过度波动来预测崩盘最可能开始的日期。
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引用次数: 0
How optimal is Ghana's single-digit inflation targeting? An assessment of monetary policy effectiveness in Ghana 加纳的个位数通胀目标有多理想?加纳货币政策有效性评估
IF 1.3 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1108/ajems-03-2023-0119
Richard Amoatey, Richard K. Ayisi, Eric Osei-Assibey

Purpose

The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to estimate an optimal inflation rate for Ghana and second, to investigate factors that account for the differences between observed and target inflation.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper explored the questions within two econometric frameworks, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Threshold Regression Models using data spanning the period 1965–2019.

Findings

The study estimated a range of 5–7% optimal inflation for Ghana. While this confirms the single-digit inflation targeting by the Bank of Ghana, the range is lower than the central bank's band of 6–10%. The combined behaviours of the central bank, banks and external outlook influence inflation target misses.

Practical implications

The study urges the central bank to continue pursuing its single-digit inflation targeting. However, it implies that there is still room for the Bank to further lower the current inflation band to achieve an optimal outcome on growth and welfare. Again, the Bank should commit to increased transparency and accountability to enhance its credibility in attaining the targeted inflation.

Originality/value

The study is one of the first attempts in Africa in Ghana to estimate an optimal inflation target and investigate the underlying factors for deviation from the targets.

本研究的目的是双重的。首先,估计加纳的最佳通货膨胀率,其次,调查导致观察到的通货膨胀率和目标通货膨胀率之间差异的因素。本文利用1965年至2019年期间的数据,在两个计量经济学框架(自回归分布滞后(ARDL)和阈值回归模型)中探讨了这些问题。研究结果估计,加纳的最佳通货膨胀率为5-7%。虽然这证实了加纳银行的个位数通胀目标,但这一范围低于央行6-10%的区间。央行、银行和外部前景的综合行为影响通胀目标的缺失。实际意义该研究敦促央行继续追求个位数的通胀目标。然而,这意味着英国央行仍有进一步降低当前通胀区间的空间,以实现经济增长和福利的最佳结果。再次,央行应致力于提高透明度和问责制,以提高其在实现目标通胀方面的可信度。原创性/价值本研究是非洲首次尝试在加纳估计最佳通胀目标,并调查偏离目标的潜在因素之一。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
African Journal of Economic and Management Studies
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