Research in Economics最新文献

We propose an asset pricing model conditional on the effective tax rate, which allows us to explicitly estimate the impact of shifts in corporate taxes on the expected returns of equities. We evaluate the model using Spanish macro and market data to estimate the time-varying average corporate tax rate and average returns of different anomaly portfolios. Our results show that changes in corporate taxation are strongly explanatory of future stock returns and, consequently, the cost of capital of firms. Furthermore, uncertainty about the future tax burden generally translates into higher expected returns, which results in a lower value of firms.

The global economic dependence on mineral imports stands as a pivotal concern motivating this study. Given the uneven distribution of these natural resources worldwide, numerous economies have had to resort to international trade to meet their domestic demand. Despite the significance of this phenomenon, existing literature on the subject has only scratched the surface of the complexities underlying the dynamics of mineral imports. In this context, the current research aims to address this gap by examining the interplay between mineral imports and various factors, such as renewable electricity, oil and mineral prices, gross domestic product (GDP), and exchange rates. In contrast to conventional research methods, the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) methodology is employed, estimated through the System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM). This methodological choice offers notable advantages in adequately addressing heteroscedasticity and endogeneity, demonstrating efficiency even in small sample sizes. The key findings of this study reveal a nonlinear relationship between mineral imports and the specified variables. This implies that, in response to a positive shock in a given variable, the demand for mineral imports may either increase or decrease, depending on the time horizon considered in the evaluation.

The existing literature in the US-Mexico trade balance reports mixed evidence on the effects of exchange rate shocks. In this paper we propose a new approach of studying exchange rate effects that allows for asymmetries in the balance of trade. Our results show that using either linear modelling or non-linear modelling and zero threshold, there is no evidence of co-integration for the US-Mexico trade. However, using a quantile analysis and median threshold, for the first time in the literature on trade balance, we obtain evidence of co-integration. Indeed, our findings show the existence of a long-run relation between the trade balance and its determinants except for periods of significant deficits, where the trade balance is detached from underlying fundamentals and follows a random walk. A USD depreciation, especially a small one, is effective in the short run in improving the trade balance, while in the long run, any depreciation worsens the trade balance. These findings hold due to the complementarity of the US and Mexican economies and the change in the structure of the Mexican economy towards higher value-added products that have led to income effects outweighing in the long run, any intending short-run effects, of exchange rate depreciation.

This paper explores regional disparities in avoidable mortalities and hospital discharges, influenced by factors associated with high-risk behaviors such as excessive alcohol consumption, smoking, and inadequate physical activity levels. We gathered data from various official sources (ISTAT and Eurostat) and conducted a comprehensive panel data regression analysis to investigate the intricate relationships between these variables. The study found that a higher prevalence of smokers is associated with increased avoidable mortality and hospital discharges. Specifically, a 1% decrease in the percentage of smokers led to an average reduction of 12.76 hospital discharges per 10,000 inhabitants. This reduction translated to an estimated total saving of approximately 331 million Euros across all regions in 2020. Similarly, excessive wine consumption was linked to higher rates of preventable mortality and hospital discharges. A one unit drop in the number of heavy drinkers per 1,000 inhabitants would result in a saving of about 60 million Euros. Furthermore, the variable indicating the prevalence of individuals aged 3 and above who never engage in sports was positively correlated with adverse health outcomes. A 1% decrease in the number of individuals in this category would lead to a saving of approximately 223 million Euros. In parallel, we analyzed pathologies associated with smoking, which include lung cancer, respiratory ailments, and cerebrovascular diseases. Moreover, we explored the potential benefits of transitioning from high-risk to reduced-risk products, aiming at alleviating the strain on the healthcare system while reallocating resources to address critical health needs. The results suggest that if 50 percent of smokers transitioned to reduced-risk products such as e-cigarettes and heat-not-burn tobacco, the NHS could potentially save 722 million Euros in terms of smoking-related illnesses. Among the healthcare systems examined, Lombardy stands to gain the most from this transition, with an estimated annual saving of approximately 140 million Euros. The findings indicate that there is potential for further savings in the National Health Service (Servizio Sanitario Nazionale, NHS) by advocating for a reduction in high-risk behaviors.

This paper presents a model of exporting with demand uncertainty where incumbents reveal signals about a shared component of demand that potential entrants use to update beliefs. Using Chilean export data, signals are estimated and used to examine the effects of information on entry into new markets, quantity of output sold, and duration of exporting. A one-standard-deviation-increase in signals by incumbents is associated with 6.3% higher entry rates, 11.7% larger first-year export volumes, and 0.6% longer duration. Information spillovers are larger in distant countries, in countries where Spanish is not an official language, for homogeneous products, and for larger firms.

This study investigates how equilibrium under a unitary nation can be achieved through fiscal transfer from (to) the federal government to (from) the state government when both levels of government supply public education to immobile residents under a simple endogenous growth framework fueled by human capital accumulation. We introduce the different time perspectives of both levels of government as a key consideration. Although both levels of government are interested in both the utility level of the present generation and the growth rate that can be attained by accumulating human capital through education, they place different weight on the value of these objectives. We first show that the federal government can replicate the equilibrium outcome that can be achieved under a unitary nation by implementing fiscal transfer between the different levels of government. Second, if the federal government places a large weight on the growth rate, or has a more long-run perspective than the state government, the federal tax rate becomes positive. Third, as the federal government has a stronger long-run perspective, fiscal transfer from the federal government to the state government increases.

We conduct an online survey to test whether interventions to foster individual motivation to eat healthy change emotional reactions to food choices. By keeping constant the change in food choice, we test if different policies evoke different emotions. The hypothetical interventions consist of a price discount or a reminder of the importance of adhering to a healthy diet. We compare the effects of the two interventions on the emotions declared at the end of the survey and on the gap between the emotions proclaimed at the beginning and the end. We find that the price discount has a positive effect on the emotional reaction of the subjects. In contrast, the reminder does not affect emotions. The positive impact of the price discount is more substantial among youth, suggesting that this age group is more sensitive to monetary incentives.

This paper aims to show that there is a great interest for countries to rely on Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) as a tool for financing the economy, especially in times of debt. First, we conceptualize through game theory a better risk management between the public and private sectors in case of co-investment. Second, building on Iossa and Martimort (2009), we demonstrate that PPPs investments produce greater economic and social gains than pure public investments by providing incentives and transferring risks to the private sector. The implications of the model are diverse: financing the provision of public infrastructure through PPPs allows for sharing the associated risks, improves the quality and reduce the costs of the provision of public goods. The model has been empirically tested on 14 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period $1990$–$2017$. The impact of PPP investments is significantly higher than that of pure public investments. The evidence also shows that the positive impact of PPP investments strengthens economic growth as the public debt grows to a point where there is no longer any significant pro growth impact.

China’s one child policy stands among the most consequential actions ever taken by a government to regulate the basic structure and fundamental nature of the family unit. Scholars and policy analysts have long recognized its likely effects with respect to the aging of Chinese society. In recent years they have also become more aware of the implications of the gender imbalance the policies have produced, in particular as they pertain to the formation of marriages. This paper analyzes the selection of surplus men into marriage by means of a model that explicitly accounts for earnings and wealth. Its central focus is the extent to which relatively scarce brides marry men with comparatively strong economic prospects in terms of earnings or wealth. Results of this study, based on data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, provide evidence that marriage in the age of the one child policy is indeed selective of men who are relatively high earners. This result is robust to a series of alternative specifications of the model.

This paper empirically tests the income trap phenomenon by analyzing the convergence rate of a growth model that incorporates corruption explicitly as a rent extraction out of capital accumulation. Our model shows that the countries are ‘trapped’ in a middle-income group because they are corrupt. Since they failed to have a less corrupt economy, then they would be less productive and do not have the sufficient and necessary capital to develop. By applying a simultaneous equations dynamic panel data model to 76 middle-income economies from 1998 to 2020 and using the iterated GLS estimation method, the results show that countries with high corruption (i.e., negative control of corruption index) are closer to their own steady state than countries with low corruption (i.e., positive control of corruption index) are. This implies the existence of a middle-income trap, which we define in this paper, for some of the countries in the middle-income group. We find the adverse effect of corruption on real GDP per capita in these economies, and in determining the different steady states among middle-income countries.