Research in Economics最新文献

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Re-assessment of sustainability of current account deficit in India: Insights from threshold cointegration and NARDL analysis

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101039

Lingaraj Mallick

I examine the sustainability of CAD by employing both linear and threshold cointegration (Enders and Siklos, 2001) and Engle-Granger (1987) from the period 1960 to 2019. Results of the threshold and Engle-Granger cointegration confirm long-run equilibrium association between exports and imports indicating strong presence of sustainability of CAD in India. This reveals that after certain threshold level of current account deficit i.e., 3%, both export and import have different speed of adjustment towards long-run and their adjustment is asymmetric in nature. These results reveal that after certain threshold level of current account deficit, there should be systematic policy to adjust short-run behaviour of imports to bring back to the long-run for sustainability of current account deficit in India. The policy makers should consider the nonlinear behaviour of current account deficit while formulating any policy prescription towards sustainability of current account deficit in India. The export sector has to be encouraged and the import sector has to be restricted by implementing tight import restricted policies. Further, based on the threshold cointegration and asymmetric error correction mechanism, after estimated threshold, both exports and imports react differently to short-run positive and negative shocks. However, sufficient condition of intertemporal budget constraint is not satisfied by NARDL method. Overall findings conclude that CAD in India is weakly sustainable. Following the empirical results some policy suggestions are suggested.

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引用次数: 0

Does free pre-kindergarten increase birth rates? Preliminary evidence from Vermont

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101040

Masanori Kuroki

This study investigates the impact of Vermont's Act 166 of 2014, which established universal pre-kindergarten, on birth rates among women aged 20–44. Contrary to the expectation of increased fertility, no meaningful increase in total, first, or subsequent birth rates was observed after program implementation. This aligns with existing research suggesting limited effectiveness of pronatalist policies. However, subsequent birth rates in Vermont declined at a slower rate than first birth rates compared to a synthetic control group, hinting at a potential positive influence on existing parents' decisions to have additional children.

引用次数: 0

Natural resources abundance and Income Inequality: Time series evidence from India

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101027

Nitish Kumar , Kundan Kumar

This study examines how the abundance of natural resources influences income inequality in India for the period 1971 to 2020. The study employs the Lee and Strazicich unit root test to identify structural break in the data, the Bayer-Hanck test of Co-integration and, methods for example FMOLS, DOLS and CRR to estimate long run coefficient. Further, to determine the direction of causality among the variables, Pairwise Granger Causality Tests is used. The results of Bayer-Hanck test for Co-integration confirms the presence of long-run association among variables. Empirical results show that income inequality is positively and significantly related with natural resources, urbanization, digitalization and physical capital, while it is negatively associated with human capital. The Granger Causality test reveals a bidirectional causal relation between natural resources and digitalization, whereas a unidirectional causal relationship is observed from human capital and physical capital to income inequality. The result of this study recommends policymakers, addressing income inequality in India requires effective and equitable allocation of resources, ensuring digital inclusion of its citizens, economic integration, promoting sustainable urban development and investment in both human and physical capital.

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引用次数: 0

From globalization to glocalization: Cultural interdependence as a source of FDI motivation

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101024

Suparna Chakraborty , Miao Grace Wang , M. C. Sunny Wong

In this paper, we explore the agglomeration effect of culture on foreign direct investment (FDI). Using data on US FDI to 74 host countries from 1984 to 2017, our analysis shows a negative effect of bilateral cultural distance on US FDI to a host, consistent with previous studies. Central to our research is the application of a higher-order spatial model, which enables us to examine correlations of FDI across various hosts along both geographical and cultural dimensions. We find that US FDI across culturally similar host nations move together. Specifically, our results show that US FDI in a host may rise by 0.25% with every 1% increase in US FDI in other hosts that are culturally similar to the host of interest. Such results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, such as controlling for spatial correlation of geographically proximate hosts. Further, the agglomeration effects also display significant variations across industries.

引用次数: 0

On the return distributions of a basket of cryptocurrencies and subsequent implications

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101028

Christoph J. Börner, Ingo Hoffmann, Lars M. Kürzinger, Tim Schmitz

This study evaluates the risk associated with capital allocation in cryptocurrencies (CCs) using a basket of 27 CCs and the CC index EWCI-. We apply basic statistical tests to model the body distribution of CC returns. Consistent with prior research, the stable distribution (SDI) is the most suitable model for the body distribution. However, due to less favorable properties in the tail area for high quantiles, the generalized Pareto distribution is employed. A combination of both distributions is utilized to calculate Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk, revealing distinct risk characteristics in two subgroups of CCs.

引用次数: 0

Application of the estimation of multiple effect size to frontier efficiency meta-regression of agriculture in Ghana

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics

Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101026

Justice G. Djokoto , Akua Agyeiwaa-Afrane , Charlotte Badu-Prah , Ferguson K. Gidiglo , Francis Y. Srofenyoh , Kofi Aaron A-O. Agyei-Henaku

We applied a method of estimating multiple effect sizes to agricultural efficiency data in Ghana. We used multi-efficiency data from 195 publications and 345 observations and fitted it to ordinary least squares regression to illustrate how the model works. The data is unique in the meta-regression efficiency space, containing all efficiency measures. We depart from existing frontier efficiency meta-regression by estimating the combined effect sizes of technical efficiency and other dimensions of frontier efficiency. We extended the single effect size estimation model to a multiple effect size estimation model. The application of the data showed that the strongest differences related to profit efficiency, the meta-regression of which has never been published. The average of the arithmetic means should not be considered as the overall efficiency, rather, the combined effect size in frontier efficiency meta-regression models.

引用次数: 0

The effects of entry in bilateral oligopoly

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101014

Robin Naylor, Christian Soegaard

We show that a firm’s profits under Cournot oligopoly can be increasing in the number of firms in the industry if wages are determined by (decentralised) bargaining in unionised bilateral oligopoly. The intuition for the result is that increased product market competition following an increase in the number of firms is mirrored by increased labour market rivalry which induces (profit-enhancing) wage moderation, a result which does not occur if unions can coordinate their wage demands under centralised bargaining. Whether the product or labour market effect dominates depends on the nature of union preferences, with a higher preference for wages making profit-raising entry more likely. We analyse how our results are sensitive to the curvature of the demand function, and the extent to which structural advantages due to incumbency enhance the benefits of entry. We also consider: (i) the impact of entry on a measure of social welfare comprising union utility, consumer surplus and firms’ profits, and (ii) a setting in which unionisation is determined endogenously through the decision of firms on whether or not to recognise unions.

引用次数: 0

Bulkiness of goods and the gravity of international trade: Differential impact of trade barriers 货物的体积和国际贸易的引力：贸易壁垒的不同影响

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101013

Xuebing Yang

This study investigates how the trade elasticity to trade barriers, or the lack thereof, varies with the bulkiness of goods, measured as the value-to-weight ratio (V/W ratio). The empirical analysis presented herein offers compelling evidence that lighter goods, characterized by higher V/W ratios, demonstrate reduced trade elasticity to distance, contiguity, and colonial relationships but heightened trade sensitivity to language. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for the variations in V/W ratios when applying gravity models and reveal noteworthy heterogeneity in trade elasticity at the country and trade-pair levels.

本研究探讨了贸易壁垒的贸易弹性或缺乏贸易壁垒的情况如何随商品的体积（以价值/重量比（V/W 比）衡量）而变化。本文提出的实证分析提供了令人信服的证据，表明以较高的价值/重量比为特征的轻型商品对距离、毗连性和殖民地关系的贸易弹性降低，但对语言的贸易敏感性提高。这些发现强调了在应用引力模型时考虑V/W比率变化的重要性，并揭示了在国家和贸易对层面贸易弹性中值得注意的异质性。

引用次数: 0

Oil Price and Long-run Economic Growth in Oil-importing Developing Countries 石油进口发展中国家的石油价格与长期经济增长

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101009

Samuel F. Gamtessa, Harminder Guliani

The recent spikes in oil prices are a significant setback for the world economy, which has already faced multiple challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is particularly concerning for developing countries as maintaining a sustained growth in real GDP is crucial for lifting their population out of poverty. While the short-run negative macroeconomic effects of a spike in oil prices are well established in the context of the developed world, the long-run growth effect has received little attention, especially in developing countries. Using the World Bank's development indicators database covering the period 1990 to 2020, this study aims to investigate the oil price-growth nexus in low and middle-income net oil-importing countries to shed light on how oil price increases could be a challenge for sustainable development. Specifically, we first set up a theoretical model to establish the relationship between growth in output per capita and oil price. Following the traditional growth regression approaches, we empirically estimate the causal effect of growth in oil prices on the economic growth of 65 net oil-importing developing countries using fixed effect panel IV regression methods. The empirical results confirm statistically significant negative effects of oil prices, indicating that a higher oil price reduces long-run economic growth in oil-importing developing countries. Our results on the other determinants of growth are consistent with the existing empirical growth literature. Oil-importing developing countries, therefore, must allocate resources towards alternative domestic energy sources, in addition to pursuing fuel efficiency and conservation strategies, to mitigate the negative effects of oil price fluctuations on their long-run economic output and uphold sustainable development.

由于 COVID-19 大流行病，世界经济已经面临多重挑战，最近的石油价格飙升是世界经济的重大挫折。这尤其令发展中国家担忧，因为保持实际国内生产总值的持续增长对于帮助这些国家的人口摆脱贫困至关重要。虽然油价飙升对宏观经济的短期负面影响在发达国家已得到公认，但其对经济增长的长期影响却很少受到关注，尤其是在发展中国家。本研究利用世界银行 1990 年至 2020 年期间的发展指标数据库，旨在调查中低收入石油净进口国的石油价格与增长之间的关系，以揭示石油价格上涨如何对可持续发展构成挑战。具体来说，我们首先建立了一个理论模型，以确定人均产出增长与石油价格之间的关系。按照传统的增长回归方法，我们采用固定效应面板 IV 回归方法，实证估计了油价增长对 65 个净石油进口发展中国家经济增长的因果效应。实证结果证实了石油价格在统计上的显著负效应，表明石油价格上涨会降低石油进口发展中国家的长期经济增长。我们对经济增长其他决定因素的研究结果与现有的经济增长实证文献一致。因此，进口石油的发展中国家除了采取燃料效率和节约战略外，还必须将资源分配给国内替代能源，以减轻石油价格波动对其长期经济产出的负面影响，坚持可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Foreign aid and inequality: Do conflicts matter? 外国援助与不平等：冲突重要吗？

IF 1.2 Q3 ECONOMICS

Research in Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2024.101008

Martin Ambassa , Itchoko Motande Mondjeli Mwa Ndjokou , Pierre Christian Tsopmo

Existing literature on the relationship between foreign aid and income inequality (inequality) is inconclusive and the role of conflict has been underexplored. Yet, the frequency and severity of conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have increased sharply in recent years. This study investigates the impact of foreign aid on inequality in SSA, focusing on the moderating role of conflicts. Using a sample of 41 SSA countries from 1989 to 2022, we employ fixed-effects and System GMM to explore the complex interplay between foreign aid, conflicts and inequality. The results suggest that foreign aid reduces inequality, but that its effectiveness is considerably reduced in conflict-ridden countries. The results confirm the harmful effect of conflict in the foreign aid-inequality nexus in SSA. Results are robust to many robustness checks, such as the alternative strategy, which combines alternative inequality and conflict measures. Our results suggest that promoting good governance by fighting corruption and preventing conflict can enable foreign aid to significantly reduce inequality in SSA.

关于外国援助与收入不平等（不平等）之间关系的现有文献尚无定论，对冲突的作用也探讨不足。然而，近年来撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）冲突的频率和严重程度急剧上升。本研究调查了外国援助对撒哈拉以南非洲不平等的影响，重点关注冲突的调节作用。我们以 1989 年至 2022 年的 41 个撒哈拉以南非洲国家为样本，采用固定效应和系统 GMM 方法探讨了外国援助、冲突和不平等之间复杂的相互作用。结果表明，外援可以减少不平等，但在冲突频发的国家，外援的效果会大打折扣。结果证实了冲突在撒南非洲外援-不平等关系中的有害影响。结果对许多稳健性检验都是稳健的，例如结合了其他不平等和冲突衡量标准的替代策略。我们的结果表明，通过打击腐败和预防冲突来促进善治，可以使外援显著减少撒南非洲的不平等现象。

引用次数: 0

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