Pub Date : 2025-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101033
Lawrence Ogbeifun , Olatunji Shobande
This paper examines the economic effects of foreign exchange (FOREX) restriction policy in Nigeria, using a new dataset from 2009 to 2019. Using the synthetic control method (SCM), we find that, after the policy implementation, Nigeria’s per capita GDP reduced by an average of $175.72 while inflation increased by 6.3% from 2015 to 2019 compared to the synthetic control countries without such policy. Regarding the restricted items, our results indicate that the policy led to a decrease in the trade value of imported items, except for imported processed vegetables. Furthermore, our analysis emphasizes that while the FOREX restriction policy appears to align with the Central Bank’s objective of reducing the importation of domestically producible items, it also sheds light on the consequential impacts of such policies. The observed decline in GDP per capita and the complex pattern of inflation highlight the need for a sophisticated and adaptable policy strategy. Policymakers should pay close attention to the macroeconomic dynamics and promote stability and growth in the face of changing economic conditions.
{"title":"Exploring the implications of FOREX restriction policies: Theory and new evidence","authors":"Lawrence Ogbeifun , Olatunji Shobande","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101033","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101033","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the economic effects of foreign exchange (FOREX) restriction policy in Nigeria, using a new dataset from 2009 to 2019. Using the synthetic control method (SCM), we find that, after the policy implementation, Nigeria’s per capita GDP reduced by an average of $175.72 while inflation increased by 6.3% from 2015 to 2019 compared to the synthetic control countries without such policy. Regarding the restricted items, our results indicate that the policy led to a decrease in the trade value of imported items, except for imported processed vegetables. Furthermore, our analysis emphasizes that while the FOREX restriction policy appears to align with the Central Bank’s objective of reducing the importation of domestically producible items, it also sheds light on the consequential impacts of such policies. The observed decline in GDP per capita and the complex pattern of inflation highlight the need for a sophisticated and adaptable policy strategy. Policymakers should pay close attention to the macroeconomic dynamics and promote stability and growth in the face of changing economic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 3","pages":"Article 101033"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143437458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the effects of gain framing and loss framing on small, repetitive efforts with piece-rate payoffs in laboratory experiments. Theoretical predictions, arising from the anticipation of higher reference points under loss framing, suggest an increased effort in that context. However, our results do not support this hypothesis; in fact, a reverse effect is observed among a subset of participants. Our findings also indicate that loss framing tends to increase participants’ stress levels.
{"title":"Loss and gain framing to encourage repeated real-effort provision: An experiment","authors":"Penelope Buckley, Béatrice Roussillon, Sabrina Teyssier","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101030","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101030","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the effects of gain framing and loss framing on small, repetitive efforts with piece-rate payoffs in laboratory experiments. Theoretical predictions, arising from the anticipation of higher reference points under loss framing, suggest an increased effort in that context. However, our results do not support this hypothesis; in fact, a reverse effect is observed among a subset of participants. Our findings also indicate that loss framing tends to increase participants’ stress levels.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 3","pages":"Article 101030"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-03DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101037
P. Wesley Routon , Jay K. Walker
School starting age policies typically result in academic cohorts where the oldest students are approximately a full year older than their youngest peers. A student’s relative age in their cohort has been shown to have significant effects on a growing list of outcomes, academic and non-academic. On average, relatively older students have been found to perform better in school, particularly during early education. Some evidence exists they continue to fare better in post-college labor markets. Soft skills, satisfaction with education, and collegiate differentials, generally, have received less attention. Using a sample of students from hundreds of U.S. colleges and universities, we estimate the effects of relative age on student satisfaction with higher education and their perceived gains in 13 knowledge and skill categories during undergraduate tenure. College GPAs are also examined. Controlling for other factors, relatively older students report smaller gains in a large number of skill and knowledge categories. In none of the categories available for analysis do they report higher average gains. This does not appear due to academic achievement or involvement, as they also earn similar grades, on average, and report feeling similarly satisfied with their overall collegiate experience and instruction specifically. Thus, while relatively older students earn similar grades and leave college no less satisfied, they perceive to have benefited less from higher education in terms of skill and knowledge gains.
{"title":"Relative age, college satisfaction, and student perceptions of skills gained","authors":"P. Wesley Routon , Jay K. Walker","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>School starting age policies typically result in academic cohorts where the oldest students are approximately a full year older than their youngest peers. A student’s relative age in their cohort has been shown to have significant effects on a growing list of outcomes, academic and non-academic. On average, relatively older students have been found to perform better in school, particularly during early education. Some evidence exists they continue to fare better in post-college labor markets. Soft skills, satisfaction with education, and collegiate differentials, generally, have received less attention. Using a sample of students from hundreds of U.S. colleges and universities, we estimate the effects of relative age on student satisfaction with higher education and their perceived gains in 13 knowledge and skill categories during undergraduate tenure. College GPAs are also examined. Controlling for other factors, relatively older students report smaller gains in a large number of skill and knowledge categories. In none of the categories available for analysis do they report higher average gains. This does not appear due to academic achievement or involvement, as they also earn similar grades, on average, and report feeling similarly satisfied with their overall collegiate experience and instruction specifically. Thus, while relatively older students earn similar grades and leave college no less satisfied, they perceive to have benefited less from higher education in terms of skill and knowledge gains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 2","pages":"Article 101037"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143350670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101031
Léonard Moulin , Mara Soncin
The learning loss caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on students’ outcomes is likely to have lasting effects on which evidence is lacking. Using a difference-in-differences design through a triple difference estimator, we identify the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on Italian students’ test scores in the two years following the COVID-19 outbreak. Our findings indicate a persistently negative effect on mathematics and reading scores for grade 5 and grade 8 students in 2021–22, two years after the pandemic began. The magnitude compared the cohort that attended the same grades the year before (2020-21) varies by subject and grade. Our analysis highlights the pandemic’s heterogeneous impact, especially in terms of geographical differences that have been exacerbated by the emergency.
{"title":"Persistent impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on student outcomes in Italy","authors":"Léonard Moulin , Mara Soncin","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101031","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101031","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The learning loss caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on students’ outcomes is likely to have lasting effects on which evidence is lacking. Using a difference-in-differences design through a triple difference estimator, we identify the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on Italian students’ test scores in the two years following the COVID-19 outbreak. Our findings indicate a persistently negative effect on mathematics and reading scores for grade 5 and grade 8 students in 2021–22, two years after the pandemic began. The magnitude compared the cohort that attended the same grades the year before (2020-21) varies by subject and grade. Our analysis highlights the pandemic’s heterogeneous impact, especially in terms of geographical differences that have been exacerbated by the emergency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 2","pages":"Article 101031"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143096549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-31DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101025
Joan E. Madia , Francesco Moscone , Asieh Hosseini Tabaghdehi , Jong-Chol An , Changkeun Lee
This study investigates the link between taxation and fertility in South Korea, focusing on the historical period surrounding the mid-70s tax reforms. The longstanding decline in fertility rates has been widely discussed in relation to factors such as increasing human capital, women’s employment, and rising housing costs, leading couples to postpone or forego childbearing decisions. However, less attention has been paid to how tax policies that influence disposable income and economic planning horizons could indirectly affect fertility choices. While taxation is crucial for funding social security systems, policies that reduce household resources without considering demographic impacts may have unintended consequences on population dynamics. Using a time-series of country-year from the World Bank, we exploit South Korea’s major mid-1970s tax reforms as a natural experiment to test the hypothesis that higher tax burdens also contributed to reducing fertility over the subsequent decades. The results suggest considerable negative effect of the mid-1970s tax reforms on fertility in South Korea. This macro-analysis shows tax policies can influence population dynamics, but lacks insight into how tax changes affected childbearing decisions at the household level. Future micro-level studies could reveal mechanisms linking tax policies and fertility behavior. Still, this study highlights potential demographic impacts of taxation policies. Policymakers should consider such consequences when modifying tax systems, especially policies related to family resources and child affordability.
{"title":"Fertility decline and tax revenues in South Korea","authors":"Joan E. Madia , Francesco Moscone , Asieh Hosseini Tabaghdehi , Jong-Chol An , Changkeun Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the link between taxation and fertility in South Korea, focusing on the historical period surrounding the mid-70s tax reforms. The longstanding decline in fertility rates has been widely discussed in relation to factors such as increasing human capital, women’s employment, and rising housing costs, leading couples to postpone or forego childbearing decisions. However, less attention has been paid to how tax policies that influence disposable income and economic planning horizons could indirectly affect fertility choices. While taxation is crucial for funding social security systems, policies that reduce household resources without considering demographic impacts may have unintended consequences on population dynamics. Using a time-series of country-year from the World Bank, we exploit South Korea’s major mid-1970s tax reforms as a natural experiment to test the hypothesis that higher tax burdens also contributed to reducing fertility over the subsequent decades. The results suggest considerable negative effect of the mid-1970s tax reforms on fertility in South Korea. This macro-analysis shows tax policies can influence population dynamics, but lacks insight into how tax changes affected childbearing decisions at the household level. Future micro-level studies could reveal mechanisms linking tax policies and fertility behavior. Still, this study highlights potential demographic impacts of taxation policies. Policymakers should consider such consequences when modifying tax systems, especially policies related to family resources and child affordability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 2","pages":"Article 101025"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143135590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study evaluates threshold impact of remittances on economic growth based on data for a sample of BRICS countries for the period 1994–2018. In doing so, we employ Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR), which captures both heterogeneity and nonlinearity of smooth transition in estimated coefficients from one extreme to another regime. Based on the PSTR model results, the threshold of remittance ranges between 4.82 and 30.65 % for remittance percentage of GDP (RPG) in BRICS countries. Similarly, threshold estimated value of remittance varies from 27.45 to 30.76 % for the remittances received to paid ratio (RRP). We obtained extreme lower and extreme higher regimes characterized by smooth and sharp transitions in growth-remittances nexus conditional upon control variables for RPG under CG and L-BFGS-B algorithms, respectively. The findings suggest that remittance has a positive impact on economic growth under lower regime and negative impact under higher regime. As per the regression results, remittance has positive impact on economic growth below the estimated threshold whereas above the threshold remittance has negative consequences on economic growth. In addition, investment from abroad becomes growth neutral beyond the threshold. However, below the threshold foreign direct investment improves economic growth. In contrast, gross fixed capital formation substantially accelerates economic growth irrespective of extreme regimes underestimated threshold. Nevertheless, findings of trade balance impact on economic growth is estimated to be negative when it crosses the threshold of remittance. This study offers conspicuous policy suggestions based on the non-linear nexus of remittance and economic growth for BRICS countries.
{"title":"Remittance and economic growth nexus in BRICS countries: Evidence from PSTR with endogeneity","authors":"Kalandi Charan Pradhan , Lingaraj Mallick , Kalu Naik","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates threshold impact of remittances on economic growth based on data for a sample of BRICS countries for the period 1994–2018. In doing so, we employ Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR), which captures both heterogeneity and nonlinearity of smooth transition in estimated coefficients from one extreme to another regime. Based on the PSTR model results, the threshold of remittance ranges between 4.82 and 30.65 % for remittance percentage of GDP (RPG) in BRICS countries. Similarly, threshold estimated value of remittance varies from 27.45 to 30.76 % for the remittances received to paid ratio (RRP). We obtained extreme lower and extreme higher regimes characterized by smooth and sharp transitions in growth-remittances nexus conditional upon control variables for RPG under CG and L-BFGS-B algorithms, respectively. The findings suggest that remittance has a positive impact on economic growth under lower regime and negative impact under higher regime. As per the regression results, remittance has positive impact on economic growth below the estimated threshold whereas above the threshold remittance has negative consequences on economic growth. In addition, investment from abroad becomes growth neutral beyond the threshold. However, below the threshold foreign direct investment improves economic growth. In contrast, gross fixed capital formation substantially accelerates economic growth irrespective of extreme regimes underestimated threshold. Nevertheless, findings of trade balance impact on economic growth is estimated to be negative when it crosses the threshold of remittance. This study offers conspicuous policy suggestions based on the non-linear nexus of remittance and economic growth for BRICS countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 2","pages":"Article 101032"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143360802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-30DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101038
Roni Frish
This study examines the impact of the Government Mandatory Pension Order (GMPO) on household consumption. The GMPO, which came into force in Israel in 2008, required contributing to a pension fund at a gradually increasing rate, up to 17.5 percent of wages in 2014 and afterwards. The study uses a diff-in-diff method to compare the development of household consumption expenditure where the household heads did not contribute to a pension fund before 2008 (“Treated”), with that of a group doing so willingly before 2008 ("Control"). The data sources are Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics’ annual Household Expenditure Surveys for the period 2004 through 2016 and Israel Tax Authority data on personal pension contributions. The study rejects the null hypothesis that the treatment has null effect on the consumption of the treated group in the treatment period. However, since the p-value is between 0.05–0.10 the study could not reject the null hypothesis for the conventional p-value threshold of 0.05.
{"title":"The effect of mandated savings on private consumption: Evidence from Israel's pension reform","authors":"Roni Frish","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101038","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101038","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of the Government Mandatory Pension Order (GMPO) on household consumption. The GMPO, which came into force in Israel in 2008, required contributing to a pension fund at a gradually increasing rate, up to 17.5 percent of wages in 2014 and afterwards. The study uses a diff-in-diff method to compare the development of household consumption expenditure where the household heads did not contribute to a pension fund before 2008 (“Treated”), with that of a group doing so willingly before 2008 (\"Control\"). The data sources are Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics’ annual Household Expenditure Surveys for the period 2004 through 2016 and Israel Tax Authority data on personal pension contributions. The study rejects the null hypothesis that the treatment has null effect on the consumption of the treated group in the treatment period. However, since the p-value is between 0.05–0.10 the study could not reject the null hypothesis for the conventional p-value threshold of 0.05.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 2","pages":"Article 101038"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143205102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-29DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101042
Muhammad Nadir Shabbir , Duong Thuy Linh
From 2009 to 2023, the study investigates in 78 developing nations the link between green innovation, Green GDP, and globalization. It finds using dynamic panel data models that green innovation greatly increases Green GDP while globalization has a beneficial moderating effect by allowing technological transfer and worldwide cooperation. Using econometric methods, an ecologically inclusive metric—green GDP—is examined to handle problems including heteroscedasticity and endogeneity. Emphasizing customized policy measures, the research also finds thresholds in the efficacy of green innovation depending on human development levels. Robustness tests validate the results and underline the need of green innovation in sustainable development as well as the combined effect of globalization. Particularly addressing issues in the framework of developing economies, this study offers insightful analysis for legislators and stakeholders to promote sustainable economic growth by means of innovation and globalization in developing countries.
{"title":"Globalizing green innovation: Impact on green GDP and pathways to sustainability","authors":"Muhammad Nadir Shabbir , Duong Thuy Linh","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>From 2009 to 2023, the study investigates in 78 developing nations the link between green innovation, Green GDP, and globalization. It finds using dynamic panel data models that green innovation greatly increases Green GDP while globalization has a beneficial moderating effect by allowing technological transfer and worldwide cooperation. Using econometric methods, an ecologically inclusive metric—green GDP—is examined to handle problems including heteroscedasticity and endogeneity. Emphasizing customized policy measures, the research also finds thresholds in the efficacy of green innovation depending on human development levels. Robustness tests validate the results and underline the need of green innovation in sustainable development as well as the combined effect of globalization. Particularly addressing issues in the framework of developing economies, this study offers insightful analysis for legislators and stakeholders to promote sustainable economic growth by means of innovation and globalization in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 1","pages":"Article 101042"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143103982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The BRICS countries have a significant influence on global environmental issues, ranking among the world's top polluters. Similarly, they possess the world's largest foreign exchange reserves. Nevertheless, this intriguing intertwining has not been investigated. This research gap inspired the study to examine how environmental conditions react to the accumulation of international reserves and to explore the potential existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between 1993 and 2020. The empirical findings using Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship between international reserves and environmental degradation in the BRICS countries. Initially, reserve accumulation is harmful to the environment, suggesting a prioritization of reserve accumulation over environmental sustainability. However, once a certain level is reached, reserves start to help protect the environment. Additional findings reveal that nonrenewable energy consumption, GDP, and population negatively affect the environment, whereas exports have a positive influence. The impact of FDI, however, is inconsistent and frequently lacks significance over time. Furthermore, the causality analysis supports all of the aforementioned findings.
{"title":"Bridging the divide: Exposing the intriguing link between international reserves and environmental status through the inverted U-shaped relationship","authors":"Aissa Djedaiet , Hicham Ayad , Salim Bourchid Abdelkader","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The BRICS countries have a significant influence on global environmental issues, ranking among the world's top polluters. Similarly, they possess the world's largest foreign exchange reserves. Nevertheless, this intriguing intertwining has not been investigated. This research gap inspired the study to examine how environmental conditions react to the accumulation of international reserves and to explore the potential existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between 1993 and 2020. The empirical findings using Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) indicate an inverted U-shaped relationship between international reserves and environmental degradation in the BRICS countries. Initially, reserve accumulation is harmful to the environment, suggesting a prioritization of reserve accumulation over environmental sustainability. However, once a certain level is reached, reserves start to help protect the environment. Additional findings reveal that nonrenewable energy consumption, GDP, and population negatively affect the environment, whereas exports have a positive influence. The impact of FDI, however, is inconsistent and frequently lacks significance over time. Furthermore, the causality analysis supports all of the aforementioned findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 1","pages":"Article 101041"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143103980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-27DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101043
Obaika M. Ohikhuare, Oluwatomisin J. Oyewole
This paper examines how global factors influence the asymmetric connectedness among G7 REITs markets. It hypothesizes that bearish markets may exhibit higher connectedness than bullish markets because people react more to losses than gains. Using the extended TVP-VAR model, the study estimates connectedness indexes under three market conditions across three samples: pre-crisis, crisis, and full sample. The findings reveal that REIT markets are more connected in bearish conditions than in bullish ones, even when connectedness was heightened during crises. Additionally, the study reveals that market conditions can alter risk and opportunity spillover structures among G7 REITs, making assets considered safe in one market risky in another, especially during crises. We further explain how geopolitical risks and climate policy uncertainty drive crude oil returns and how they collectively influence G7 REITs' connectedness. To achieve this, we employed both causality-in-quantile and quantile regression techniques. We found that these factors have a heterogeneous impact on total connectedness across market conditions, samples, and quantiles, offering valuable insights for policymakers and investors.
{"title":"Asymmetric connectedness among the G7 REITs market: How important are oil returns, climate policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks?","authors":"Obaika M. Ohikhuare, Oluwatomisin J. Oyewole","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.rie.2025.101043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how global factors influence the asymmetric connectedness among G7 REITs markets. It hypothesizes that bearish markets may exhibit higher connectedness than bullish markets because people react more to losses than gains. Using the extended TVP-VAR model, the study estimates connectedness indexes under three market conditions across three samples: pre-crisis, crisis, and full sample. The findings reveal that REIT markets are more connected in bearish conditions than in bullish ones, even when connectedness was heightened during crises. Additionally, the study reveals that market conditions can alter risk and opportunity spillover structures among G7 REITs, making assets considered safe in one market risky in another, especially during crises. We further explain how geopolitical risks and climate policy uncertainty drive crude oil returns and how they collectively influence G7 REITs' connectedness. To achieve this, we employed both causality-in-quantile and quantile regression techniques. We found that these factors have a heterogeneous impact on total connectedness across market conditions, samples, and quantiles, offering valuable insights for policymakers and investors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"79 2","pages":"Article 101043"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143403184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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