Australian Economic Papers最新文献

This study examined the principal factors driving the return volatility of a basket of Australian stocks, with the aim of understanding the volatility behaviour of such factors over the business cycle. Special focus was placed on unusual market events identified during the business cycle, such as the Covid-19 pandemic. The study analysed monthly stock return and seasonally adjusted quarterly real GDP data from June 2011 to December 2024 using PAF and HP filter models respectively. The results showed that four factors accounted for around 67% of the return volatility of the stocks sampled. Factor 1 was primarily driven by REIT stocks, Factor 2 by bank stocks, Factor 3 by industrial and metal stocks and Factor 4 by coal, oil and gas stocks. These four principal factors exhibited unusual downside volatility levels over one subperiod of the business cycle, namely the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. An implication of this study from the investment function perspective of the economy concerns the impact of overexposure to unusually volatile stock sectors by major fund providers. A particular issue concerns the rising interconnectedness between Superannuation funds and overinvested sectors, particularly the noticeable exposure to major local banks and the potential impact such an overexposure may have on financial market stability during periods of market volatility.

This study first examined the function of social security schemes in moderating the adverse effects on child education of unemployment among household members. Using data from the 2019 non-crisis period and the 2021 crisis period from the Thailand Socio-Economic Survey, two-step estimation models were employed due to the presence of a large number of censored observations. In addition, the validity of the results was supported by utilizing an instrumental variable approach to address the possibility of an endogeneity problem. Of greater importance, the negative effects of unemployment were moderated when unemployed household members were covered by social security schemes. The results show that the negative impact of unemployment on educational spending was significantly larger during the 2021 crisis period compared to the 2019 non-crisis period. To further verify the mitigating role of SSS, the robustness of the results was also checked by including an interaction term between unemployment and SSS in two-stage decision models, along with additional control variables.

Using the stochastic frontier gravity model and information and communication technology (ICT) product trade data from 2007 to 2021, this study measures and compares the efficiency of ICT product trade between China and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) member countries. The results of this study indicate that the trade flow of ICT products is positively correlated with the level of economic development and negatively correlated with geographical distance. Government efficiency, trade and transport-related infrastructure quality, higher education enrollment rate, and the number of mobile phone users have a positive effect on the trade efficiency of ICT products. Compared to the United States and the European Union, China has the lowest export efficiency and the highest import efficiency of ICT products to RCEP member countries. The trade efficiency estimates also reveal that China's efficient ICT product trading partners include Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea, while inefficient ICT product trading partners include Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. Moreover, there are significant differences in trade efficiency among different categories of ICT products. Therefore, China should focus on minimizing the impact of non-efficiency factors in trade, implement differentiated cooperation strategies with RCEP member countries, and promote the diversification of ICT product trade.

This research explores the effects of various oil shocks—supply, aggregate demand, and oil-specific demand—on the demand for air passenger and freight services in South Korea and Japan. Employing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, it analyzes data from 2000 to 2022. The findings indicate that different oil shocks, especially two types of demand shocks, substantially impact air travel demand in these countries. The study also points out the significant roles economic growth and exchange rates play. These outcomes highlight the critical need to integrate oil price dynamics into air travel demand models, considering the specific economic contexts of South Korea and Japan. The study concludes by offering policy recommendations to mitigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on air travel, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies within the aviation industry to manage these changes effectively.

This study utilizes data from 31 provinces in China between 2011 and 2018 to examine the impact of digital financial inclusion on agricultural carbon emissions and its underlying mechanisms. The study finds that digital financial inclusion can significantly reduce agricultural carbon emissions, particularly in southern China and non-major grain-producing provinces. Mediation effect analysis reveals that digital financial inclusion can reduce agricultural carbon emissions by enhancing the level of agricultural mechanization. Further analysis reveals that the scale of agricultural operations and the proportion of grain crops can strengthen the relationship between digital financial inclusion and agricultural carbon emissions. The research findings provide empirical evidence and a basis for decision-making to fully leverage the carbon reduction effects of digital financial inclusion.

With the continuous acceleration of economic development, the problem of regional economic imbalance has become increasingly prominent. From the perspective of core–periphery, this study examines the impact of digital finance on the economic disparities between cities and tests the mediating effect of factor mobility. The results show that digital finance is conducive to narrowing the economic disparities between central cities and peripheral cities. Factor mobility is the primary mechanism. Digital finance can reduce urban economic disparities by facilitating the flow of capital factors. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the role of digital finance is more significant in the eastern and central regions. Among the three sub-indicators of digital finance, both the coverage breadth and the digitization are conducive to narrowing urban economic disparities. Therefore, the construction of digital financial infrastructure should be strengthened to increase the coverage breadth of digital finance so that a broader range of regions and groups can enjoy the digital dividend and promote coordinated regional development.

Using data from a novel survey of over 4800 students, we examine the low levels of participation and diversity in Economics at Australia's high schools. We find that student demand for Economics as a subject is strongly associated with socio-educational advantage and sex, even when accounting for sample selection in whether schools offer Economics. Students typically have positive perceptions of economics as a field; however, the perceptions of Economics as a subject tend to be negative. Males compared to females, and students from more socio-educationally advantaged schools compared to less socio-educationally advantaged schools have more favorable perceptions of Economics as a subject, which is reflected in a higher likelihood of them choosing to study Economics. Controlling for a greater perceived understanding of what the subject of Economics is about does reduce some of the sex and socio-educational differences in perceptions, but a gap remains.