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Russia's Trade With G7 Countries and Asymmetric J-Curve Effect 俄罗斯与 G7 国家的贸易和不对称 J 曲线效应
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12381
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, Muhammad Aftab, Huseyin Karamelikli

This study investigates the relationship between exchange rates and trade balance, specifically focusing on Russia's trade dynamics with the Group of Seven (G7) countries. Employing a multifaceted approach, we scrutinize the asymmetric responses evident in the trade balance concerning fluctuations in exchange rates. Our investigation, rooted in linear analysis, initially reveals that rubble depreciation predominantly impacts the Russian trade balance adversely in the short term, albeit demonstrating a positive influence on trade balance in select instances over the long run—an observation aligned with the established J-curve phenomenon. However, as we transition to nonlinear analysis, our findings yield stronger substantiation for the J-curve hypothesis. Notably, our research underscores the asymmetric nature of exchange rate changes' effects on trade balance. Moreover, through nonlinear modeling techniques, we observe a pronounced enhancement in the convergence toward establishing a long-term relationship between these variables. This emphasizes the significance of nonlinear approaches in comprehending the complexities inherent in exchange rate-trade balance dynamics of Russian trade with G7.

本研究探讨了汇率与贸易平衡之间的关系,特别关注俄罗斯与七国集团(G7)国家的贸易动态。我们采用了一种多方面的方法,仔细研究了贸易平衡对汇率波动的不对称反应。我们的研究以线性分析为基础,初步揭示了卢布贬值在短期内对俄罗斯贸易平衡的主要不利影响,尽管从长期来看在某些情况下对贸易平衡有积极影响--这与既定的 J 曲线现象一致。然而,当我们过渡到非线性分析时,我们的研究结果更有力地证实了 J 曲线假说。值得注意的是,我们的研究强调了汇率变动对贸易平衡影响的非对称性。此外,通过非线性建模技术,我们观察到这些变量之间建立长期关系的趋同性明显增强。这强调了非线性方法在理解俄罗斯与七国集团贸易中汇率-贸易平衡动态的内在复杂性方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Earnings, Productivity and Housing Expenditure: Who Retains the Wage-Related Agglomeration Effect? 收入、生产力和住房支出:谁保留了与工资相关的集聚效应?
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12380
Christian A. Nygaard

Productivity gains enable real wage growth and improved standards of living. But whose income actually benefits from productivity gains when highly productivity urban locations in Australia, and other advanced economies, also are associated with worsening housing affordability and inequality? This paper answers this question by empirically testing whether agglomeration effects vary across the wage distribution in Australia? And, how much of any agglomeration effect is retained by individuals across the wage distribution? Unconditional quantile regressions are employed to analyse changes in agglomeration effects across the before- and after-housing cost wage distribution. Information on individual earnings, housing costs and place of employment is sourced from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA). The paper utilises four pre-COVID waves of HILDA (2017–2020) as details on place of employment was first introduced in 2017. Agglomeration indices are constructed from Australian Bureau of Statistics census data using 17 industry (ANZSIC) classifications (2016, 2021). The results show that the before-housing cost wages of higher-wage earners typically benefit twice as much as those of lower-wage earners. However, after adjusting for housing expenditure (mortgage payments and rents) the after-housing costs wage benefit for the lowest two wage earning deciles disappear and is transferred to owners of real estate. Higher wage earners retain approximately 50%–60% of the agglomeration benefit. It is thus higher wage earner, and owners of land and property, who typically benefit from agglomeration related productivity—often at the expense of lower-wage earners.

生产力的提高带来了实际工资的增长和生活水平的提高。但是,当澳大利亚和其他发达经济体的高生产力城市地区也与不断恶化的住房负担能力和不平等现象相关联时,究竟是谁的收入从生产力提高中获益?本文通过实证检验澳大利亚工资分布的集聚效应是否存在差异来回答这一问题。在不同的工资分布中,个人能保留多少聚集效应?本文采用无条件量值回归分析了聚集效应在住房成本之前和之后的工资分布中的变化。有关个人收入、住房成本和就业地点的信息来自澳大利亚家庭、收入和劳动力动态(HILDA)。由于就业地点的详细信息是在 2017 年首次引入的,因此本文采用了 HILDA 在 COVID 之前的四次波次(2017-2020 年)。集聚指数根据澳大利亚统计局的普查数据,采用 17 个行业(ANZSIC)分类(2016 年、2021 年)构建而成。结果显示,高薪人群的住房成本前工资通常是低薪人群的两倍。然而,在对住房支出(按揭付款和租金)进行调整后,工资收入最低的两个十分位数的住房成本后工资收益消失,并转移到房地产所有者身上。高收入者保留了约 50%-60%的集聚效益。因此,从与生产率相关的集聚中获益的通常是高收入者以及土地和房产所有者--往往是以牺牲低工资者的利益为代价。
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引用次数: 0
Judy Yates and Housing Economics 朱迪-耶茨与住房经济学
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12378
Geoffrey Meen, Christine Whitehead

This editorial captures the history of immense contributions that Judy Yates AM has made to the discipline of housing economics. It traces her legacy and combines notes of personal appreciation by two international colleagues that Judy worked closely with during her lifetime.

这篇社论记录了朱迪-耶茨(Judy Yates AM)为住房经济学学科做出巨大贡献的历史。这篇社论追溯了她的遗产,并结合了朱迪生前密切合作的两位国际同行的个人感言。
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引用次数: 0
Judy Yates 朱迪-耶茨
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12379
Stephen Whelan
<p>Judith (Judy) Nancy Yates first lectured at the University of Sydney in 1967–1968 before rejoining the University in 1972 following her PhD. Judy remained a member of staff until her retirement in 2008, after which she was appointed an Honorary Associate. During her time in the School of Economics (and its predecessors), Judy left an indelible mark on students and colleagues at the University of Sydney and on the policy community in Australia through her work as an applied economist. While that work focussed largely on housing-related research throughout much of her career, Judy's PhD from the University of Amsterdam was in optimal control theory rather than economics, and her appointment at the University of Sydney was to a lectureship in mathematical economics. It was during the late 1970s and early 1980s that Judy immersed herself in the housing-related research following her work for the Campbell Report into the Australian Financial System. That report along with others initiated many of the microeconomic reforms, especially liberalisation of financial markets, that were a feature of the 1980s and 1990s. Those policy reforms were an important contributor to the economic developments that Judy immersed herself in throughout her academic career. Specifically, Judy's role in that Inquiry and her deep concerns around distributional issues initiated an ongoing interest in, analysis of and contribution to academic and public debates focussing on housing policy.</p><p>While Judy's academic and public policy contributions around housing are well documented, it is important to note that those contributions from the very beginning were to what at the time was the nascent field of housing economics. Judy's contributions beginning in the early to mid-1980s highlight the instrumental role Judy played not just in Australia but also internationally in raising the intellectual rigour of this field of study. In this respect as in many others, Judy was a pathbreaker. Judy had topped her Honours class at the ANU and upon finding that as a female she would be paid less than her male counterparts at the Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics, took a tutorship at the Australian National University. In the 1980s, Judy was the first woman to be appointed to the boards of the Housing Loans Insurance Commission and the Commonwealth Bank. Judy held numerous appointments on Commonwealth and State Government statutory bodies (including the National Housing Supply Council between 2008 and 2013) and Ministerial Advisory Committees throughout her distinguished career.</p><p>During her career at the University of Sydney, Judy was a dedicated educator, selfless in mentoring of junior colleagues and an example for all on how to actively engage in the policy-making process as an academic. Judy was director of the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) Sydney Research Centre from 2001 to 2004 and contributed to numerous AHURI reports. My own introductio
朱迪思-南希-耶茨(Judith (Judy) Nancy Yates)于 1967-1968 年首次在悉尼大学讲学,1972 年获得博士学位后重新回到悉尼大学工作。朱迪在 2008 年退休前一直是悉尼大学的教职员工,退休后被任命为名誉副教授。在经济学院(及其前身)工作期间,朱迪作为一名应用经济学家,为悉尼大学的学生和同事以及澳大利亚的政策界留下了不可磨灭的印记。在朱迪职业生涯的大部分时间里,她的工作主要集中在与住房有关的研究上,她在阿姆斯特丹大学获得的博士学位是最优控制理论,而不是经济学,她在悉尼大学获得的是数理经济学讲师职位。在 20 世纪 70 年代末和 80 年代初,朱迪参与了坎贝尔澳大利亚金融体系报告(Campbell Report)的编写工作,之后便沉浸在与住房相关的研究中。该报告与其他报告共同发起了许多微观经济改革,尤其是金融市场自由化,这是 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代的一大特点。这些政策改革对朱迪整个学术生涯中的经济发展起到了重要的推动作用。具体而言,朱迪在 "调查 "中所扮演的角色,以及她对分配问题的深切关注,引发了她对住房政策的持续兴趣,并对住房政策的学术和公共辩论进行了分析和贡献。虽然朱迪在住房方面的学术和公共政策贡献有据可查,但必须指出的是,这些贡献从一开始就是针对当时刚刚起步的住房经济学领域的。朱迪从 20 世纪 80 年代早期到中期开始做出的贡献,凸显了朱迪不仅在澳大利亚,而且在国际上为提高这一研究领域的知识严谨性所发挥的重要作用。在这方面以及其他许多方面,朱迪都是开路先锋。朱迪曾在澳大利亚国立大学的荣誉班上名列前茅,在发现作为一名女性,她在联邦人口普查和统计局的薪酬低于男性同事后,她在澳大利亚国立大学担任了导师。20 世纪 80 年代,朱迪成为第一位被任命为住房贷款保险委员会和联邦银行董事会成员的女性。在悉尼大学的职业生涯中,朱迪是一位尽职尽责的教育工作者,她无私地指导年轻同事,并在如何以学者身份积极参与政策制定过程方面为所有人树立了榜样。2001 年至 2004 年,朱迪担任澳大利亚住房与城市研究所悉尼研究中心主任,为该研究所的众多报告做出了贡献。作为一名初级学者,我是应朱迪的邀请参与澳大利亚住房与城市研究所的一项资助项目,从而开始接触住房经济学的。在那次合作之后,我与朱迪一起参与了一系列项目,而在她 "退休 "之后,朱迪一直为我提供睿智的建议和真知灼见。这些见解不仅反映了她对澳大利亚住房市场的深刻了解,也反映了她对澳大利亚面临的住房挑战的持久兴趣。本卷中的论文清楚地表明,这些挑战不仅没有减少,反而在很多情况下变得更加严峻。悉尼大学认识朱迪的同事评价她 "精力充沛、慷慨大方,有能力让学生对经济学着迷"。他们还注意到她能够提出 "连贯、简洁的书面论点"。发现问题并对其进行简洁、深思熟虑和有力评估的能力,是朱迪对围绕住房问题的学术、政策和公共辩论所做贡献的一大特点。这些论文既有试图在更广泛的经济范围内理解住房问题的技术分析,也有关注对理解住房市场如何运作以及为什么它们能够(或不能)实现政策制定者和社会所寻求的结果至关重要的辩论的论文。与此类似,朱迪本人的工作也涉及对财富分配和住房需求的技术分析,同时始终关注了解政策设置对个人住房结果的影响。Khemka、Tang 和 Warren 提出了一个 "级联模型",该模型将对澳大利亚住房的预测与宏观经济结果和资产市场的长期预测结合在一起。这一贡献有助于强调住房是经济的一个组成部分,尽管是一个关键组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
The Australian Greens' Public Property Developer: An Input–Output Analysis 澳大利亚绿党的公共财产开发商:投入产出分析
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12376
Chad Satterlee

The Australian Greens have recently proposed the establishment of a new federal government agency to build 360,000 extra homes over five years. These homes would be sold or rented at below-market rates. The appraisal of this plan has so far been confined to a fiscal balance perspective, where completed homes are sold, rental income is received, and government administration and borrowing costs are serviced. This ignores the flow-on effects on the broader economy from expanded residential building construction activity. This paper starts to fill this gap by using a simple Leontief input–output model to analyse a counterfactual in which the Greens' plan is partially implemented into the structure of the Australian economy in 2021–2022. In light of the $84.14 billion static change in the level of total national product that, other things equal, must have occurred to satisfy an augmented final use bill corresponding to the Greens' plan, the simulation finds that projected imposts on the federal budget are rendered relatively modest. Potential extensions and applications of the model for policymakers are considered.

JEL Classification: D5, E1, P5

澳大利亚绿党最近提议成立一个新的联邦政府机构,在五年内增建 36 万套住房。这些住房将以低于市场的价格出售或出租。迄今为止,对这一计划的评估一直局限于财政平衡的角度,即售出竣工住宅、获得租金收入以及支付政府管理和借贷成本。这就忽略了扩大住宅建筑活动对更广泛经济的流动效应。本文利用一个简单的列昂惕夫(Leontief)投入产出模型,分析了绿党计划在 2021-2022 年部分落实到澳大利亚经济结构中的反事实,从而开始填补这一空白。考虑到在其他条件不变的情况下,为满足与绿党计划相对应的扩大最终用途法案,国民生产总值水平必须发生 841.4 亿澳元的静态变化,模拟结果发现,预计对联邦预算的影响相对较小。本文还考虑了该模型的潜在扩展和对决策者的应用:D5, E1, P5
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引用次数: 0
Is There Still a Catholic Earnings Premium for Men? Evidence From Australia 男性的天主教收入溢价还存在吗?来自澳大利亚的证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-18 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12377
Michael A. Kortt, Michael B. Charles, Luan Vinicius Bernardelli, Brian Dollery

Studies using large-scale survey data from Australia, Germany, and the United States have found evidence that religious affiliation influences earnings, with Catholic men benefitting from a wage premium. This paper examines religious affiliation and human capital formation for males aged 25 and 54 using six waves of data from the Household Income Labour Dynamics Australia (HILDA) survey. This study examines the impact of religious affiliation on male earnings through three main approaches: (i) estimating male earnings functions using various religious groupings, (ii) stratifying the analysis by wave to detect potential changes over time, and (iii) evaluating differences in the return to human capital investment among Anglicans, Catholics, and men with other religious affiliations. Contrary to existing studies, we find no evidence of a Catholic wage premium.

利用澳大利亚、德国和美国的大规模调查数据进行的研究发现,有证据表明宗教归属会影响收入,天主教男性会从工资溢价中获益。本文利用澳大利亚家庭收入劳动力动态调查(HILDA)的六波数据,对 25 至 54 岁男性的宗教归属和人力资本形成进行了研究。本研究通过以下三种主要方法研究宗教信仰对男性收入的影响:(i) 利用各种宗教分组估算男性收入函数;(ii) 按波次进行分层分析,以检测随时间推移可能发生的变化;(iii) 评估圣公会教徒、天主教徒和具有其他宗教信仰的男性在人力资本投资回报方面的差异。与现有研究相反,我们没有发现天主教工资溢价的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Spillover effects of climate transition risk and financial sectors: New evidence from China 气候转型风险与金融部门的溢出效应:来自中国的新证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12374
Shiyuan Li, Xin Li

This paper employs the connectedness approach based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) to examine the overall spillover effects, directional spillover effects and pairwise spillover effects of climate transition risk (CTR) and financial sectors of China in both the time domain and frequency domain. The main findings are as follows: Firstly, spillover effects from CTR are significant, impacting not only individual sectors but also amplifying across the entire system. Secondly, while the influence of CTR on financial sectors is lower compared to interconnections among financial sectors, it remains considerable. Thirdly, in the short-term, risks transmit from CTR to financial sectors, while in the long-term, the direction reverses. Fourthly, there were significant fluctuations in spillover effects among CTR and financial sectors from 2003 to 2008, indicating increased risk under extreme conditions. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding of potential risks in the financial system by regulatory authorities, facilitating the adoption of appropriate regulatory measures to maintain market stability. Moreover, it provides valuable insights for investors to better accurately assess risks and returns.

本文采用基于时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)的关联性方法,从时域和频域两方面研究了中国气候转型风险(CTR)与金融部门的整体溢出效应、方向溢出效应和成对溢出效应。主要研究结果如下:首先,CTR 的溢出效应显著,不仅影响单个部门,而且在整个系统中不断放大。其次,与金融部门之间的相互联系相比,虽然 CTR 对金融部门的影响较小,但仍然相当大。第三,在短期内,风险从 CTR 向金融部门传导,而从长期来看,方向则相反。第四,从 2003 年到 2008 年,CTR 和金融部门之间的溢出效应存在明显波动,表明在极端条件下风险增加。本研究的结果有助于监管当局了解金融体系的潜在风险,从而采取适当的监管措施维护市场稳定。此外,它还为投资者更好地准确评估风险和收益提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Construction and analysis of regional financial stability index in China: Regional system status, difference measure and spatio-temporal variation 中国区域金融稳定指数的构建与分析:区域体系现状、差异度量与时空变化
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12375
Jinsong Wang, Wenhui Wu

In the course of its steady development, China's financial landscape confronts an array of risks and challenges. Against the backdrop of China's sustained commitment to regional coordinated development strategies, the imperative of achieving coordinated financial stability across regions becomes paramount for fostering macro-financial stability. This study addresses this imperative by formulating a regional financial stability index grounded in the provincial financial stability index. The ensuing analyses encompass the delineation of regional financial stability status, the quantification of disparities, and the scrutiny of temporal and spatial dynamics. Our findings reveal a relatively high level of regional financial stability in China, with a modest overall variance between national and regional financial stability. Notably, the financial stability of the eastern region assumes a pivotal role in influencing the nationwide financial stability landscape. The regional financial stability index demonstrates dynamic evolutionary features characterised by temporal fluctuations and discernible spatial differentiation patterns. Drawing upon these insights, the article proffers a set of targeted policy recommendations, with practical implications for fortifying macro-financial stability not only in China but also in other nations.

在稳步发展的过程中,中国金融面临着一系列风险和挑战。在中国持续实施区域协调发展战略的背景下,实现区域间金融的协调稳定成为促进宏观金融稳定的当务之急。本研究在省级金融稳定指数的基础上制定了区域金融稳定指数,以解决这一问题。随后的分析包括区域金融稳定状况的划分、差异的量化以及时空动态的审视。我们的研究结果表明,中国的地区金融稳定性水平较高,全国和地区金融稳定性之间的总体差异不大。值得注意的是,东部地区的金融稳定对全国金融稳定格局的影响举足轻重。区域金融稳定指数呈现出动态演化的特征,即时间上的波动和空间上的明显分化。基于这些认识,文章提出了一系列有针对性的政策建议,不仅对中国,也对其他国家加强宏观金融稳定具有现实意义。
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引用次数: 0
Local co-production in safety service provision: The case of Surf Life Saving in New South Wales 提供安全服务的地方共同生产:新南威尔士州的冲浪救生案例
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12373
Owen Hogan, Brian Dollery, Michael A. Kortt

Beaches are iconic in Australian culture. However, coastal areas are intrinsically hazardous, given the nature of recreational beach activities. The need for beach regulation and safety services has spawned a vast network of voluntary life-saving clubs across Australia that operate collaboratively with local government and volunteers. In this paper, we examine the operation of Surf Life Saving New South Wales (SLSNSW) through the analytical lens of local co-production. We argue that the effectiveness of SLSNSW can be mainly ascribed to the efficacious manner in which SLSNSW, local councils and volunteers have been combined to generate beach safety services.

海滩是澳大利亚的标志性文化。然而,鉴于海滩娱乐活动的性质,沿海地区本身就具有危险性。对海滩监管和安全服务的需求催生了澳大利亚各地志愿救生俱乐部的庞大网络,这些俱乐部与当地政府和志愿者合作开展活动。在本文中,我们通过地方共同生产的分析视角来研究新南威尔士州冲浪救生组织(SLSNSW)的运作。我们认为,新南威尔士州冲浪救生协会的成效主要归功于该协会、地方议会和志愿者以有效的方式共同提供海滩安全服务。
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引用次数: 0
The supply elasticity and housing price bubbles in New South Wales, Australia 澳大利亚新南威尔士州的供应弹性与房价泡沫
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-07 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.12372
Yi Ding, Xiangling Liu

In this study, we use a supply and demand model to estimate housing supply elasticity in New South Wales Australia based on yearly data for the 126 local government areas from 1991 to 2019, and investigate effects of supply elasticity on responses of housing prices and new constructions to housing price bubbles from 2002 to 2004. In particular, when conducting supply elasticity estimation, we use multi-factor error structures to address cross-sectional dependence issues, which is ignored by previous studies. We find that the supply elasticity estimates are statistically significant at the state level (0.36), in the regional coastal area (0.97) and in the regional inland area (0.41 but can be inconsistent and inefficient due to cross-sectional dependence), while perfectly inelastic in the metropolitan area. Effects of supply elasticity on the market responses to bubbles are largely affected by market heterogeneity such as overall supply elasticity levels and demand degrees. The findings may compensate for the limitations of the theory in Glaeser et al. (2008, J Urban Econ, 64:198–217) and offer potential avenues for future development of the theory. Our results implies that bubbles promote development in elastic areas of the metropolitan market and inelastic areas of the regional coastal market, and that balancing urban and regional development is important for dealing with bubble-related affordability issues.

在本研究中,我们基于澳大利亚新南威尔士州 126 个地方政府辖区 1991 年至 2019 年的年度数据,使用供需模型估算了住房供给弹性,并研究了供应弹性对 2002 年至 2004 年住房价格和新建筑对住房价格泡沫反应的影响。特别是,在进行供给弹性估计时,我们使用了多因素误差结构来解决横截面依赖问题,而这是以往研究忽略的。我们发现,在州一级(0.36)、区域沿海地区(0.97)和区域内陆地区(0.41,但由于横截面依赖性,可能不一致且无效率),供应弹性估计值在统计上是显著的,而在大都市地区则完全没有弹性。供给弹性对市场泡沫反应的影响主要受市场异质性的影响,如整体供给弹性水平和需求程度。这些发现可以弥补 Glaeser 等人(2008 年,J Urban Econ,64:198-217)理论的局限性,并为该理论的未来发展提供了潜在的途径。我们的研究结果表明,泡沫促进了大都市市场弹性区域和区域沿海市场非弹性区域的发展,平衡城市和区域发展对于解决与泡沫相关的经济承受能力问题非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
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Australian Economic Papers
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