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The Future as Epistemic Condition: How International Organisations Anticipate Futures of Social Policy 作为认知条件的未来:国际组织如何预测未来的社会政策
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13600826.2021.2021153
J. Berten
ABSTRACT The welfare state is increasingly challenged and threatened by futures, whose exact realisation remains largely uncertain. The article compares how the International Labour Organization (ILO), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the World Bank anticipate and authorise “futures of work” in light of technological transformations and climate change. The article shows that IOs face epistemic constraints both in constructing problems and in designing social security policy proposals. Constraints rely on visions of possible and probable futures over which the IOs do not always have control. Anticipatory practices that enact future visions oscillate between concretely specifying future developments and narrative flexibility, which does not directly specify courses of action but impacts core logics behind policy proposals. Irrespective of IOs’ ideological differences, solutions to technological transformations focus on precaution, whereas solutions to climate change focus on preparation. While precaution allows for imagining possibilities, preparation stresses the urgency of issues.
摘要福利国家越来越受到未来的挑战和威胁,未来的具体实现在很大程度上仍不确定。这篇文章比较了国际劳工组织(ILO)、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)和世界银行如何根据技术变革和气候变化预测和批准“工作的未来”。文章表明,组织机构在构建问题和设计社会保障政策建议时都面临着认识约束。约束依赖于对可能和可能的未来的愿景,而IO并不总是能够控制这些愿景。制定未来愿景的预期实践在具体规定未来发展和叙事灵活性之间摇摆不定,叙事灵活性不直接规定行动方案,但影响政策提案背后的核心逻辑。无论国际组织的意识形态差异如何,技术变革的解决方案都侧重于预防,而气候变化的解决方案则侧重于准备。虽然预防措施允许想象可能性,但准备工作强调问题的紧迫性。
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引用次数: 0
Governing Techno-Futures: OECD Anticipation of Automation and the Multiplication of Managerialism 治理技术未来:经合组织对自动化的预期和管理主义的倍增
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13600826.2021.2021148
M. Campbell-Verduyn, M. Hütten
ABSTRACT How do international organisations (IOs) govern the present based on claims about the coming impacts of technological change? Drawing on primary documents and participant observation, this article traces how the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) anticipates automation emanating from the growing integration of blockchain technologies in global governance. We find that promises of radical, rapid, and reckless automation advanced by promoters of Bitcoin and other ‘defiant’ applications of the technology are steered by this IO towards more incremental and carefully managed forms of automation. The OECD relies on two managerialist practices to anticipate “reckless automation” through the promotion of what we identify as “responsible disruption”. In combination, OECD practices of scenario building and shared orientation framework construction deepen and extend managerial forms of global governance today whose technocratic and expert-led nature limits democratic possibilities and perpetuates global inequalities.
摘要:国际组织如何根据技术变革即将产生的影响来治理当前?根据主要文件和参与者的观察,本文追溯了经济合作与发展组织(OECD)如何预测区块链技术在全球治理中日益融合所带来的自动化。我们发现,比特币和该技术的其他“挑衅”应用的推动者所提出的激进、快速和鲁莽的自动化承诺,正是由这种IO引导向更渐进、更谨慎管理的自动化形式。经合组织依靠两种管理主义做法,通过促进我们所认定的“负责任的破坏”来预测“鲁莽的自动化”。经合组织情景构建和共同导向框架构建的做法相结合,深化和扩展了当今全球治理的管理形式,其技术官僚和专家主导的性质限制了民主的可能性,并使全球不平等现象长期存在。
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引用次数: 3
Tomorrow's Debt, Today's Duty: Debt Sustainability as Anticipatory Global Governance 明天的债务,今天的责任:债务可持续性作为预期的全球治理
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13600826.2021.2021152
Matthias Kranke
ABSTRACT Sovereign debt projections permeate international economic affairs. While concerns about debt sustainability motivate much policy analysis and commentary, this article unpacks the anticipatory practices through which (un)sustainable future debt is turned into a governance object in the first place. To this end, I examine the joint Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF or Fund) and the World Bank (or Bank). I empirically focus on the cases of Sudan and Somalia, both of which are low-income countries (LICs) classified as weak performers under the Fund-Bank Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Based on documentary evidence from twelve DSAs, I argue the IMF and World Bank's projections reflect a contractual understanding of debt, embrace economic growth as a panacea for chronic indebtedness and downplay structural constraints on debt sustainability. The resulting futures reveal some of the political choices inscribed in seemingly neutral instruments of anticipatory global governance.
摘要主权债务预测渗透到国际经济事务中。虽然对债务可持续性的担忧激发了许多政策分析和评论,但本文首先揭示了将(不)可持续的未来债务转变为治理对象的预期做法。为此,我审查了国际货币基金组织和世界银行的联合债务可持续性分析。我根据经验重点关注苏丹和索马里的情况,这两个国家都是低收入国家,根据基金组织-银行重债穷国倡议,它们被列为表现不佳的国家。根据12份DSA的文件证据,我认为国际货币基金组织和世界银行的预测反映了对债务的契约理解,将经济增长视为解决长期债务的灵丹妙药,并淡化了对债务可持续性的结构性限制。由此产生的未来揭示了预期全球治理这一看似中立的工具所包含的一些政治选择。
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引用次数: 1
Assembling Transnational Policing: Europol’s Anticipatory Governance 集合跨国警务:欧洲刑警组织的预期治理
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13600826.2021.2021146
H. Hansen, Julie Uldam
ABSTRACT Building on studies of transnational policing, security and digitization, we develop an assemblage-theoretical framework to explore perceptions of time in contemporary policing efforts. We use the concepts of techno imaginaries and policing assemblage to examine the articulation of temporality and multi-scalar connections between humans and non-humans in policing, which has become increasingly pluralised and digitised. We draw on documentary research on Europol to analyse anticipatory governance in transnational police work, including the linkages between humans and machines and identify a shift from post-crime towards pre-crime interventions. We critically discuss the significance of this shift for the character and robustness of expected future risks and threat assessments. Our reflections on the interplay between time and techno imaginaries contribute to critical analyses of the ways in which decision-making and interventions shape and are shaped by transnational assemblages in anticipatory governance.
摘要在对跨国警务、安全和数字化研究的基础上,我们建立了一个集合理论框架,以探索当代警务工作中的时间观念。我们使用技术想象和警务组合的概念来研究警务中人类和非人类之间的时间性和多尺度联系的表达,警务已经变得越来越多元化和数字化。我们利用欧洲刑警组织的文献研究,分析跨国警察工作中的预期治理,包括人与机器之间的联系,并确定从犯罪后干预向犯罪前干预的转变。我们批判性地讨论了这种转变对预期未来风险和威胁评估的特征和稳健性的重要性。我们对时间和技术想象之间相互作用的思考有助于批判性地分析决策和干预措施的形成方式,以及预期治理中跨国组合的形成方式。
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引用次数: 0
Governing through Anticipatory Norms: How UNIDIR Constructs Knowledge about Autonomous Weapons Systems 通过预期规范进行管理:裁军研究所如何构建自主武器系统知识
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13600826.2021.2021149
B. Prem
ABSTRACT The need for normative change is rarely self-evident but requires the sustained efforts of actors to create a demand for action. With emerging technologies such as autonomous weapons systems (AWS), the challenge is even greater given the early stages of development and use of these systems. This places unusual demands on actors to present evidence for the nature, scale and severity of a problem. Suggesting that the epistemic bases of norm-building are poorly understood, the article introduces a practice-theoretical approach to cast light on how international organisations cope with the uncertainty surrounding AWS. The key claim is that the emergence of anticipatory norms depends upon forward-looking epistemic practices that produce knowledge about future governance objects and create a demand for preventive action. Analysing the role of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), I argue that attempts to de-science-fictionalise the issue rather than futuristic scenarios may proof integral to propel the emergence of anticipatory norms.
规范变革的必要性很少是不言而喻的,但需要行动者的持续努力来创造行动需求。随着自主武器系统(AWS)等新兴技术的出现,考虑到这些系统的早期开发和使用阶段,挑战甚至更大。这就对行为者提出了不同寻常的要求,要求他们就问题的性质、规模和严重性提出证据。这篇文章提出了一种实践-理论的方法来阐明国际组织如何应对围绕AWS的不确定性,这表明人们对规范建设的认识基础知之甚少。关键的主张是,预期规范的出现依赖于前瞻性的认知实践,这些实践产生了关于未来治理对象的知识,并创造了对预防性行动的需求。在分析联合国裁军研究所(裁军研究所)的作用时,我认为,试图将这个问题去科幻化,而不是未来主义的设想,可能是推动预期规范出现的不可或缺的因素。
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引用次数: 0
Guardians of the Future: International Organisations, Anticipatory Governance and Education 未来的守护者:国际组织、预见性治理和教育
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/13600826.2021.2021151
S. Robertson
ABSTRACT This paper is a comparative analysis of the anticipatory practices deployed by two international organisations (IOs), UNESCO and the OECD, to govern education futures. I show how their coordination of education futures is mediated by: (1) their different histories, missions, resources and geo-political alliances; (2) use of different anticipatory practices; (3) ongoing tensions between the two organisations around who dominates future-making in education; and (4) the challenges to be negotiated when anticipated futures arrive as a problematic present. My argument develops around three moments of crisis as new arenas for what Ann Mische calls “hyper-projectivity” around futures. In each moment I explore the way UNESCO and the OECD engage in, and compete over, framing, shaping and materialising future presents. In doing so, they claim to be guardians of education futures.
本文对比分析了联合国教科文组织和经合组织这两个国际组织在管理教育未来方面的前瞻性实践。我展示了它们对教育未来的协调如何受到以下因素的影响:(1)它们不同的历史、使命、资源和地缘政治联盟;(2)采用不同的预期做法;(3)两个组织之间围绕谁主导未来教育的关系持续紧张;(4)当预期的未来作为一个有问题的现在到来时,需要谈判的挑战。我的论点围绕着三个危机时刻展开,它们是安•米什(Ann Mische)所说的围绕未来的“超投射性”(hyper- projticism)的新舞台。每时每刻,我都在探索联合国教科文组织和经合组织在构建、塑造和实现未来礼物方面的参与和竞争方式。在这样做的过程中,他们声称自己是教育未来的守护者。
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引用次数: 16
Reverse Versus Radical Discourse: A Qualified Critique of Butler and Foucault, with an Alternative Interactive Theorisation 逆向话语与激进话语:对巴特勒和福柯的一次合格批判
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.1080/13600826.2022.2052024
M. Haugaard
ABSTRACT This article explores the concept of reverse discourse, as suggested by Foucault and Butler. It is argued that Butler's concept of subject formation is overly determinist, as is Foucault's of discourse. Following Scott's critique, it is argued that there is a strong and a weak conceptualisation of dominant ideology. Discourses are in competition for authority, where dominant ideology is the discourse of more powerful decision-makers, while subaltern ideologies persist. This leads to a more interactive theory of structural constraint and the conditions of possibility for radical action. Social actors can change power relations by reproducing dominant discourses while reversing implied power-authority relations – reverse discourse. Alternatively, more radically, they can resist dominant ideology by attempting to build consensus around subaltern ideology, which is incommensurable with dominant ideology. Reverse discourse has the advantage over radical critique in that it reproduces the natural-order-of-things. However, it has the disadvantage of reproducing reifying norms.
本文探讨了福柯和巴特勒提出的反向话语的概念。有人认为,巴特勒的主体形成概念过于确定主义,福柯的话语也是如此。根据斯科特的批评,有人认为主流意识形态的概念化有强有弱。话语是对权威的竞争,主导意识形态是更强大的决策者的话语,而次要意识形态则持续存在。这导致了一个更具互动性的结构约束理论和激进行动的可能性条件。社会行动者可以通过再现主导话语来改变权力关系,同时逆转隐含的权力-权威关系——反向话语。或者,更激进的是,他们可以通过试图围绕次级意识形态建立共识来抵制主导意识形态,而次级意识形态与主导意识形态是不可通约的。逆向话语比激进批评的优势在于它再现了事物的自然秩序。然而,它有复制具体化规范的缺点。
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引用次数: 3
Return of the Amateurs? Comparing Grassroots and Professional Approaches to International Relief 业余选手的回归?比较基层和专业的国际救济方法
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-03-31 DOI: 10.1080/13600826.2022.2056881
D. Kennedy, François Venne
ABSTRACT International aid is increasingly the domain of professionals, particularly among large international nongovernmental organisations (INGOs), while amateur assistance is largely dismissed (or disparaged) by practitioners and academics. However, strong countervailing trends exist, especially in the United States, with 10,000 grassroots INGOs (GINGOs) established since the 1990s. We explore the positioning of amateur organisations in a professionalising field. We ask: To what extent do GINGOs conform with or challenge professional practices in international aid? We investigate this question through a comparative content analysis of the websites of 60 GINGOs active in Haiti and 8 large, professional INGOs. Our research affirms the differences between professional and amateur organisations in areas of public presentation and financial transparency, but also reveals unexpected areas of convergence, especially among a subset of professionally-presenting GINGOs. In addition, we find that despite stated INGO commitments to beneficiary empowerment, amateurs were comparatively more consistently rights-based in their communications.
摘要国际援助日益成为专业人士的领域,尤其是在大型国际非政府组织中,而业余援助在很大程度上被从业者和学者所忽视(或贬低)。然而,存在着强烈的反补贴趋势,尤其是在美国,自20世纪90年代以来,已有10000个基层非政府组织成立。我们探索业余组织在专业化领域的定位。我们问:GINGO在多大程度上符合或挑战国际援助中的专业做法?我们通过对活跃在海地的60个GINGO和8个大型专业INGO网站的比较内容分析来调查这个问题。我们的研究肯定了专业组织和业余组织在公开演讲和财务透明度方面的差异,但也揭示了意想不到的趋同领域,尤其是在专业演讲的GINGO的子集之间。此外,我们发现,尽管国际非政府组织对受益人赋权做出了明确承诺,但业余爱好者在交流中的权利相对更为一致。
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引用次数: 0
Theorising Resistance Formations: Reverse Discourses, Spatial Resistance and Networked Dissent 理论化抵抗的形成:反向话语,空间抵抗和网络异议
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-03-28 DOI: 10.1080/13600826.2022.2052020
Mona Lilja
ABSTRACT By merging the concepts of “formations” and “resistance”, this paper presents a conceptual map of how to “read” resistance movements, which are composed of individual resistance and collective action. I suggest that reverse discourse could be interpreted as one specific resistance formation, by denoting how subjects (re)articulate and re-present themselves and the figure they are expected to assume; it is a negotiation of defined and delimited identities positions. The framing of reverse discourse as a particular resistance formation, with its specific deposits, makes sense when contrasting it with other movements of resistance. By comparing different formations of resistance – such as reverse discourse, spatial resistance or networked dissent – this paper displays how and why specific mobilisations unfold; both particular and more universal features come to light when contrasting the topographies of different resistance formations.
摘要本文将“编队”和“抵抗”的概念结合起来,提出了一个如何“解读”抵抗运动的概念图,抵抗运动由个体抵抗和集体行动组成。我认为,反向话语可以被解释为一种特定的抵抗形式,通过表示主体如何(重新)表达和呈现自己以及他们被期望呈现的形象;这是对已定义和已定界身份位置的协商。当将反向话语与其他抵抗运动进行对比时,将其视为一种特殊的抵抗形式及其特定的沉积物是有意义的。通过比较不同形式的抵抗——如反向话语、空间抵抗或网络异议——本文展示了具体动员是如何展开的以及为什么展开;当对比不同阻力层的地形时,就会发现特定的和更普遍的特征。
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引用次数: 5
WAW, No Women? Foucault’s Reverse Discourse and Gendered Subjects in Diplomatic Networks 哇,没有女人?福柯的反向话语与外交网络中的性别主体
IF 1.6 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-03-26 DOI: 10.1080/13600826.2022.2052021
Ann E. Towns
ABSTRACT This study has two aims. Empirically, it examines women ambassador networks, hitherto overlooked in diplomacy scholarship. Such women-only networks are fascinating, as they cut across state-based alignments that typically shape diplomatic networks. Using Women Ambassadors of Warsaw (WAW) as a case, the analysis is based on interviews with its members in 2020. Theoretically, the aim is to draw on Michel Foucault’s notion of “reverse discourse” to build upon but trouble prior attempts to theorise the place of women and femininities in diplomacy. Rather than coherent scripts or stable roles, I argue, “women” are better conceived as a discursive subject position that is unstable, contradictory and reversing. Indeed, the members of WAW articulate surprisingly shifting and contradictory claims about women and the rationales of a women-only diplomatic network. Reverse discourse provides leverage for understanding these shifts, the article contends, but the analysis also shows the difficulties in reversing fragmented discourse.
摘要本研究有两个目的。从经验上看,它考察了迄今为止在外交学术中被忽视的女性大使网络。这种仅限女性的网络很吸引人,因为它们跨越了通常形成外交网络的国家联盟。以华沙女大使为例,分析基于2020年对其成员的采访。从理论上讲,其目的是借鉴米歇尔·福柯的“反向话语”概念,以建立在先前对女性和女性主义在外交中的地位进行理论化的尝试之上,但却遇到了麻烦。我认为,与其说“女性”是连贯的剧本或稳定的角色,不如说它是一个不稳定、矛盾和颠倒的话语主题位置。事实上,WAW的成员对妇女和仅限妇女的外交网络的理由提出了令人惊讶的转变和矛盾的主张。文章认为,反向话语为理解这些转变提供了杠杆,但分析也表明了扭转碎片话语的困难。
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引用次数: 3
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Global Society
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