The article provides an overview of the historical organization of data collection on vital events and population in German territories during the pre-statistical era and briefly presents about a dozen related datasets. Data can be divided into the two categories of aggregate data on population and vital rates at the national, regional and community levels, and of nominative data at individual and household levels. The latter type of data is typically available only for individual communities or parishes. We illustrate the use of the datasets in published studies and point to directions for future research. The most important recent development concerns the increasing availability of indexed church records and online village genealogies, which offer a vast and little exploited potential for analysing the demographic patterns that prevailed prior to the onset of the demographic transition.
{"title":"Demographic Data for the Pre-Statistical Age (Late Sixteenth Century to 1870)","authors":"Ulrich Pfister, Georg Fertig","doi":"10.1515/ger-2024-0064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2024-0064","url":null,"abstract":"The article provides an overview of the historical organization of data collection on vital events and population in German territories during the pre-statistical era and briefly presents about a dozen related datasets. Data can be divided into the two categories of aggregate data on population and vital rates at the national, regional and community levels, and of nominative data at individual and household levels. The latter type of data is typically available only for individual communities or parishes. We illustrate the use of the datasets in published studies and point to directions for future research. The most important recent development concerns the increasing availability of indexed church records and online village genealogies, which offer a vast and little exploited potential for analysing the demographic patterns that prevailed prior to the onset of the demographic transition.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142250388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article surveys the measurement of historical wealth and income inequality in Germany. We discuss the underlying data sources, the challenges they pose, and the opportunities they create. We also identify two promising avenues for future research. First, we argue that the geographic granularity of German historical statistics provides researchers with the opportunity to investigate the causes of inequality. Second, several dimensions of historical inequality remain under-explored, for example, the equalizing role of welfare state institutions such as public pensions.
{"title":"Measuring Historical Inequality in Germany","authors":"Thilo Albers, Charlotte Bartels, Felix Schaff","doi":"10.1515/ger-2024-0060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2024-0060","url":null,"abstract":"This article surveys the measurement of historical wealth and income inequality in Germany. We discuss the underlying data sources, the challenges they pose, and the opportunities they create. We also identify two promising avenues for future research. First, we argue that the geographic granularity of German historical statistics provides researchers with the opportunity to investigate the causes of inequality. Second, several dimensions of historical inequality remain under-explored, for example, the equalizing role of welfare state institutions such as public pensions.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142268160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the second half of the 19th century, Germany developed into one of the most innovative economies in the world and was able to defend this position in the 20th century. In order to investigate the causes of this inventiveness, it is necessary to quantify innovations and assign them to inventors, regions and industries. For this reason, various historical patent databases have been set up over the last two decades, currently covering the period from 1815 to 1990. We present these patent databases and give an overview of the main empirical studies based on these statistics.
{"title":"Causes of German Inventiveness, 1815–1990. What We Can Learn from Patent Statistics","authors":"Alexander Donges, Jochen Streb","doi":"10.1515/ger-2024-0063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2024-0063","url":null,"abstract":"In the second half of the 19th century, Germany developed into one of the most innovative economies in the world and was able to defend this position in the 20th century. In order to investigate the causes of this inventiveness, it is necessary to quantify innovations and assign them to inventors, regions and industries. For this reason, various historical patent databases have been set up over the last two decades, currently covering the period from 1815 to 1990. We present these patent databases and give an overview of the main empirical studies based on these statistics.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present a new disaggregated dataset on Germany’s exports and imports from 1880 to 1913. The data covers trade in both quantity and value at the product level. It thus comprises the universe of the data in terms of products and trade partners, at annual frequency. To ensure comparability over time and to data from other countries, the historical product categories are re-classified according to the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC, Rev. 2 and Rev. 4). Moreover, we integrate Hamburg and Bremen into the German trade statistics – two important port cities, which were not covered by the major German trade records until 1888. We describe the new data in terms of five stylized facts and make suggestions for its use in research.
{"title":"The Universe of Germany’s Foreign Trade Prior to World War I","authors":"Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, Nikolaus Wolf","doi":"10.1515/ger-2024-0059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2024-0059","url":null,"abstract":"We present a new disaggregated dataset on Germany’s exports and imports from 1880 to 1913. The data covers trade in both quantity and value at the product level. It thus comprises the universe of the data in terms of products and trade partners, at annual frequency. To ensure comparability over time and to data from other countries, the historical product categories are re-classified according to the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC, Rev. 2 and Rev. 4). Moreover, we integrate Hamburg and Bremen into the German trade statistics – two important port cities, which were not covered by the major German trade records until 1888. We describe the new data in terms of five stylized facts and make suggestions for its use in research.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article provides a comprehensive overview of the most important sources and data available for the German capital market, highlighting their capabilities and limitations. We focus on firm-specific information related to stock corporations and price data for the 19th and early 20th Century. By reviewing examples from existing literature, we illustrate the practical applications of these sources. We also launch a new stock index derived from the daily prices of 39 banks listed on the Berlin Stock Exchange, demonstrating the potential of price data for market analysis.
{"title":"Data Sources on the 19th and Early 20th Century German Capital Market: Challenges and Opportunities","authors":"Sibylle Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Alexander Opitz","doi":"10.1515/ger-2024-0067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2024-0067","url":null,"abstract":"This article provides a comprehensive overview of the most important sources and data available for the German capital market, highlighting their capabilities and limitations. We focus on firm-specific information related to stock corporations and price data for the 19th and early 20th Century. By reviewing examples from existing literature, we illustrate the practical applications of these sources. We also launch a new stock index derived from the daily prices of 39 banks listed on the Berlin Stock Exchange, demonstrating the potential of price data for market analysis.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The German “Tax-Reform 2000” involved a strong reduction in the progressivity of labor income taxation. It led to a rise in overall labor income, but also increased income inequality. Utilizing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP. 2016. Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), Data for Years 1984–2016, Version 33) for the years 1998–2007, we employ a general equilibrium framework à la Antràs et al. (Antràs, P., A. De Gortari, and O. Itskhoki. 2017. “Globalization, Inequality and Welfare.” Journal of International Economics 108: 387–412) characterized by heterogeneous individuals. The model imposes a constant rate of tax progressivity and allows for a theory-consistent decomposition of social welfare that highlights the equity-efficiency trade-off, namely into (i) the fundamental social welfare level that would arise in a Kaldor-Hicks economy with lump-sum transfers, (ii) a correction term that accounts for the social cost of inequality à la Atkinson (Atkinson, A. B. 1970. “On the Measurement of Inequality.” Journal of Economic Theory 2 (3): 244–63) or Sen (Sen, A. 1970. Collective Choice and Social Welfare. Harvard University Press), and (iii) a correction term for the social cost of distortionary taxation. Our estimations show that the German tax system can be well approximated by the imposed tax schedule and that the reform implied a fall in the degree of tax progressivity. Under the baseline calibration, the numerical analysis yields the following results: First, the main driver of growth in social welfare from 1998 to 2007 was fundamental social welfare. Second, the counterfactual analysis shows that the reform resulted in an annual average income growth of 0.62 % and an increase in income inequality of 0.32 %, indicating an only modest increase in social welfare of 0.07 %. Third, the actual tax progression converged to its social welfare maximizing level.
德国 "2000 年税制改革 "大幅降低了劳动所得税的累进性。这导致了总体劳动收入的增加，但也加剧了收入不平等。利用德国社会经济面板数据（SOEP.2016.Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)，Data for Years 1984-2016, Version 33）1998-2007 年的数据，我们采用了类似于 Antràs 等人的一般均衡框架（Antràs, P., A. De Gortari, and O. Itskhoki.2017."全球化、不平等与福利》。国际经济学杂志》108：387-412）。该模型设定了一个恒定的税收累进率，并允许对社会福利进行理论一致的分解，以突出公平与效率的权衡，即分解为：(i) 在卡尔多-希克斯（Kaldor-Hicks）经济中一次性转移支付所产生的基本社会福利水平；(ii) 一个修正项，该修正项考虑了阿特金森（Atkinson, A. B. 1970."On the Measurement of Inequality.Journal of Economic Theory 2 (3)：244-63）或森（Sen, A. 1970.集体选择与社会福利》。哈佛大学出版社），以及 (iii) 扭曲性税收的社会成本修正项。我们的估算结果表明，德国的税制可以很好地近似于征税表，而改革意味着税收累进程度的下降。在基线校准下，数值分析得出以下结果：首先，1998 年至 2007 年社会福利增长的主要驱动力是基本社会福利。第二，反事实分析表明，改革导致年均收入增长 0.62%，收入不平等程度增加 0.32%，表明社会福利仅略微增加了 0.07%。第三，实际税收递增趋同于社会福利最大化水平。
{"title":"Progressive Taxation and Social Welfare: Quantifying the Effects of the “German Tax-Reform 2000”","authors":"Benjamin Jung, Timo Walter","doi":"10.1515/ger-2023-0100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0100","url":null,"abstract":"The German “Tax-Reform 2000” involved a strong reduction in the progressivity of labor income taxation. It led to a rise in overall labor income, but also increased income inequality. Utilizing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP. 2016. <jats:italic>Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), Data for Years 1984–2016, Version 33</jats:italic>) for the years 1998–2007, we employ a general equilibrium framework à la Antràs et al. (Antràs, P., A. De Gortari, and O. Itskhoki. 2017. “Globalization, Inequality and Welfare.” <jats:italic>Journal of International Economics</jats:italic> 108: 387–412) characterized by heterogeneous individuals. The model imposes a constant rate of tax progressivity and allows for a theory-consistent decomposition of social welfare that highlights the equity-efficiency trade-off, namely into (i) the fundamental social welfare level that would arise in a Kaldor-Hicks economy with lump-sum transfers, (ii) a correction term that accounts for the social cost of inequality à la Atkinson (Atkinson, A. B. 1970. “On the Measurement of Inequality.” <jats:italic>Journal of Economic Theory</jats:italic> 2 (3): 244–63) or Sen (Sen, A. 1970. <jats:italic>Collective Choice and Social Welfare</jats:italic>. Harvard University Press), and (iii) a correction term for the social cost of distortionary taxation. Our estimations show that the German tax system can be well approximated by the imposed tax schedule and that the reform implied a fall in the degree of tax progressivity. Under the baseline calibration, the numerical analysis yields the following results: First, the main driver of growth in social welfare from 1998 to 2007 was fundamental social welfare. Second, the counterfactual analysis shows that the reform resulted in an annual average income growth of 0.62 % and an increase in income inequality of 0.32 %, indicating an only modest increase in social welfare of 0.07 %. Third, the actual tax progression converged to its social welfare maximizing level.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Désirée I. Christofzik, Steffen Elstner, Lars P. Feld, Christoph M. Schmidt
Despite massive digitization efforts, the German economy has experienced a marked slowdown in its productivity growth. This paper empirically analyzes three prominent explanations for this development. First, using a novel quarterly utilization-adjusted total factor productivity measure for the German economy, we find that the slowdown in U.S. productivity growth since the mid-2000s had only a negligible impact on the German productivity trend. Second, the structural shift towards services in the German economy explains a sizeable share of the weaker aggregate productivity gains. This transformation process is associated with a strong labor market performance. And third, employing a novel identification procedure, we show that technological progress in the German information and communication technology (ICT) producing sector stimulates both, aggregate output and employment growth. Its effect on aggregate productivity is, however, small.
{"title":"Unraveling the Productivity Paradox: Evidence for Germany","authors":"Désirée I. Christofzik, Steffen Elstner, Lars P. Feld, Christoph M. Schmidt","doi":"10.1515/ger-2023-0094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0094","url":null,"abstract":"Despite massive digitization efforts, the German economy has experienced a marked slowdown in its productivity growth. This paper empirically analyzes three prominent explanations for this development. First, using a novel quarterly utilization-adjusted total factor productivity measure for the German economy, we find that the slowdown in U.S. productivity growth since the mid-2000s had only a negligible impact on the German productivity trend. Second, the structural shift towards services in the German economy explains a sizeable share of the weaker aggregate productivity gains. This transformation process is associated with a strong labor market performance. And third, employing a novel identification procedure, we show that technological progress in the German information and communication technology (ICT) producing sector stimulates both, aggregate output and employment growth. Its effect on aggregate productivity is, however, small.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142205847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We estimate potential regional industrial effects in case of a threatening gas deficit. For Germany, the reduction leads to a potential decrease in industrial value added by 1.6 %. The heterogeneity across German states is remarkable, ranging from 2.2 % for Rhineland-Palatinate to 0.7 % for Hamburg. We emphasize the need for regional input-output tables to conduct economic analysis on a sub-national level, particularly when regional industrial structures are heterogeneous. The approximation with national figures can lead to results that differ both in magnitude and relative regional exposure. Our findings highlight that more accurate policy guidance can be achieved by improving the regional database.
{"title":"Regional Industrial Effects in Germany from a Potential Gas Deficit","authors":"Robert Lehmann, Christoph Schult","doi":"10.1515/ger-2024-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2024-0017","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate potential regional industrial effects in case of a threatening gas deficit. For Germany, the reduction leads to a potential decrease in industrial value added by 1.6 %. The heterogeneity across German states is remarkable, ranging from 2.2 % for Rhineland-Palatinate to 0.7 % for Hamburg. We emphasize the need for regional input-output tables to conduct economic analysis on a sub-national level, particularly when regional industrial structures are heterogeneous. The approximation with national figures can lead to results that differ both in magnitude and relative regional exposure. Our findings highlight that more accurate policy guidance can be achieved by improving the regional database.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141931577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stefan Goldbach, Philipp Harms, Axel Jochem, Volker Nitsch, Alfons J. Weichenrieder
In some countries, a sizable fraction of savings is derived from corporate savings. Although larger, traded corporations are often co-owned by foreign portfolio investors, current international accounting standards allocate all corporate savings to the host country. This paper suggests a framework to correct for this misleading attribution and applies this concept to Germany. For the years 2012–2020, our corrections retrospectively reduce German savings and consequently the German current account surplus by, on average, €11.5 bn annually. This amounts to lowering Germany’s average official current account surplus (€226.6 bn) across these years by approximately five percent.
{"title":"Retained Earnings, Foreign Portfolio Ownership, and the German Current Account: A Firm-Level Approach","authors":"Stefan Goldbach, Philipp Harms, Axel Jochem, Volker Nitsch, Alfons J. Weichenrieder","doi":"10.1515/ger-2023-0065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0065","url":null,"abstract":"In some countries, a sizable fraction of savings is derived from corporate savings. Although larger, traded corporations are often co-owned by foreign portfolio investors, current international accounting standards allocate all corporate savings to the host country. This paper suggests a framework to correct for this misleading attribution and applies this concept to Germany. For the years 2012–2020, our corrections retrospectively reduce German savings and consequently the German current account surplus by, on average, €11.5 bn annually. This amounts to lowering Germany’s average official current account surplus (€226.6 bn) across these years by approximately five percent.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141567515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze the short and long-run effects of an increase in the skill supply on skill-specific wages and unemployment in a model with endogenous, nonlinear diffusion of a general purpose technology (GPT) and labour market frictions. We calibrate and simulate the model using the trend rise in relative skill supply in the U.S. over two decades starting in the early 1970s. The transitional dynamics of the model show (i) an initial slump and long-run rise in the relative wage of high-skill labour and (ii) a long-run rise in the relative level of unemployment of low-skill versus high-skill labour. An increase in the number of skilled individuals reduces hiring costs and increases the incentive for firms to engage in the costly adoption of a new GPT. Stronger labour market rigidity and higher worker bargaining power are shown to have similar effects on relative wages and unemployment: changes in relative wages are more pronounced, whereas the response of relative unemployment is muted. The exact opposite effects are found in the case of a higher degree of substitution between products.
{"title":"Skill Supply, Technology Diffusion and the Labour Market","authors":"Ignat Stepanok, Mewael F. Tesfaselassie","doi":"10.1515/ger-2023-0098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0098","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the short and long-run effects of an increase in the skill supply on skill-specific wages and unemployment in a model with endogenous, nonlinear diffusion of a general purpose technology (GPT) and labour market frictions. We calibrate and simulate the model using the trend rise in relative skill supply in the U.S. over two decades starting in the early 1970s. The transitional dynamics of the model show (i) an initial slump and long-run rise in the relative wage of high-skill labour and (ii) a long-run rise in the relative level of unemployment of low-skill versus high-skill labour. An increase in the number of skilled individuals reduces hiring costs and increases the incentive for firms to engage in the costly adoption of a new GPT. Stronger labour market rigidity and higher worker bargaining power are shown to have similar effects on relative wages and unemployment: changes in relative wages are more pronounced, whereas the response of relative unemployment is muted. The exact opposite effects are found in the case of a higher degree of substitution between products.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141509042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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