Abstract Using detailed establishment-level micro data, this paper analyzes for the German case the hypothesis by Aghion et al. (2019), stating that officially published figures for real output growth would be systematically understated. The effect rests on overstated inflation estimates due to imputed prices for disappearing goods and services varieties, where measurable plant entry and exit dynamics play a crucial rule. Our main results regarding understated real output growth lie in the range of 0.39 to 0.54 average annual percentage points for 1998–2016, which is quite closely in line with existing findings for France, the USA, and Japan (in different periods). We also find that services sectors appear most affected, and that the effect in East Germany is somewhat larger. We investigate different market share proxies, provide additional robustness analysis and also discuss limitations of the approach.
{"title":"Missing growth measurement in Germany","authors":"Sven Schreiber, V. Schmidt","doi":"10.17169/REFUBIUM-29566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17169/REFUBIUM-29566","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using detailed establishment-level micro data, this paper analyzes for the German case the hypothesis by Aghion et al. (2019), stating that officially published figures for real output growth would be systematically understated. The effect rests on overstated inflation estimates due to imputed prices for disappearing goods and services varieties, where measurable plant entry and exit dynamics play a crucial rule. Our main results regarding understated real output growth lie in the range of 0.39 to 0.54 average annual percentage points for 1998–2016, which is quite closely in line with existing findings for France, the USA, and Japan (in different periods). We also find that services sectors appear most affected, and that the effect in East Germany is somewhat larger. We investigate different market share proxies, provide additional robustness analysis and also discuss limitations of the approach.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"493 - 527"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73047952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using detailed establishment-level micro data, this paper analyzes for the German case the hypothesis by Aghion et al. (2019), stating that officially published figures for real output growth would be systematically understated. The effect rests on overstated inflation estimates due to imputed prices for disappearing goods and services varieties, where measurable plant entry and exit dynamics play a crucial rule. Our main results regarding understated real output growth lie in the range of 0.39 to 0.54 average annual percentage points for 1998–2016, which is quite closely in line with existing findings for France, the USA, and Japan (in different periods). We also find that services sectors appear most affected, and that the effect in East Germany is somewhat larger. We investigate different market share proxies, provide additional robustness analysis and also discuss limitations of the approach.
{"title":"Missing growth measurement in Germany","authors":"Sven Schreiber, Vanessa Schmidt","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0068","url":null,"abstract":"Using detailed establishment-level micro data, this paper analyzes for the German case the hypothesis by Aghion et al. (2019), stating that officially published figures for real output growth would be systematically understated. The effect rests on overstated inflation estimates due to imputed prices for disappearing goods and services varieties, where measurable plant entry and exit dynamics play a crucial rule. Our main results regarding understated real output growth lie in the range of 0.39 to 0.54 average annual percentage points for 1998–2016, which is quite closely in line with existing findings for France, the USA, and Japan (in different periods). We also find that services sectors appear most affected, and that the effect in East Germany is somewhat larger. We investigate different market share proxies, provide additional robustness analysis and also discuss limitations of the approach.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper explores the relationship between the e-participation attitude of citizens and the size of the shadow economy, whose consequences could be detrimental to countries’ economic development. We exploit a rich panel dataset for 149 countries characterized by a large digital divide within their public sectors, different levels of both income and democratic institutions at work over years 2003–2015. Using the instrumental variables approach to address potential endogeneity issues, we find that e-participation significantly contributes to reducing the shadow economy. Due to its interactive nature for both businesses and citizens, it positively affects the individuals’ behavior against informal economic activities by creating a more collaborative environment between the government and its stakeholders.
{"title":"On the effects of e-participation on shadow economy: a worldwide empirical analysis","authors":"Agnese Sacchi, Raffaella Santolini, F. Schneider","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0076","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper explores the relationship between the e-participation attitude of citizens and the size of the shadow economy, whose consequences could be detrimental to countries’ economic development. We exploit a rich panel dataset for 149 countries characterized by a large digital divide within their public sectors, different levels of both income and democratic institutions at work over years 2003–2015. Using the instrumental variables approach to address potential endogeneity issues, we find that e-participation significantly contributes to reducing the shadow economy. Due to its interactive nature for both businesses and citizens, it positively affects the individuals’ behavior against informal economic activities by creating a more collaborative environment between the government and its stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"18 1","pages":"463 - 491"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86216862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper contributes to the discussion on whether real interest rates below real growth rates can be taken as evidence of dynamic inefficiency so that some fiscal intervention may be called for. A seemingly killing objection points to land, a non-produced durable asset in positive supply, as a reason why dynamic inefficiency can be ruled out. If real interest rates were expected to be below real growth rates forever, the value of land would be unbounded, which is incompatible with equilibrium. The paper shows that this objection is not robust to the presence of an arbitrarily small per-unit-of-value transaction cost. The paper also specifies fiscal interventions that provide for Pareto improvements even though they involve a resource cost. For the debate about public debt policy, the land argument is a red herring because it is incompatible with the presence of fiat money and debt denominated in units of fiat money.
{"title":"Dynamic inefficiency and fiscal interventions in an economy with land and transaction costs","authors":"Martin F. Hellwig","doi":"10.1515/ger-2020-0110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2020-0110","url":null,"abstract":"The paper contributes to the discussion on whether real interest rates below real growth rates can be taken as evidence of dynamic inefficiency so that some fiscal intervention may be called for. A seemingly killing objection points to land, a non-produced durable asset in positive supply, as a reason why dynamic inefficiency can be ruled out. If real interest rates were expected to be below real growth rates forever, the value of land would be unbounded, which is incompatible with equilibrium. The paper shows that this objection is not robust to the presence of an arbitrarily small per-unit-of-value transaction cost. The paper also specifies fiscal interventions that provide for Pareto improvements even though they involve a resource cost. For the debate about public debt policy, the land argument is a red herring because it is incompatible with the presence of fiat money and debt denominated in units of fiat money.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We analyze the causal effect of retirement on individual social relationships using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. We find that retirement changes the composition of the individual’s social network, inducing a substitution between weak (friends or colleagues) and strong ties (family), along with an increase in the intensity of the surviving ties, and there is no effect on the network’s size. These changes in the social network’s composition are associated with a higher satisfaction and stronger relationships. Interestingly, females reduce the share of friends while males that of colleagues.
{"title":"The effect of retirement on social relationships","authors":"S. Comi, E. Cottini, C. Lucifora","doi":"10.1515/ger-2020-0109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2020-0109","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We analyze the causal effect of retirement on individual social relationships using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. We find that retirement changes the composition of the individual’s social network, inducing a substitution between weak (friends or colleagues) and strong ties (family), along with an increase in the intensity of the surviving ties, and there is no effect on the network’s size. These changes in the social network’s composition are associated with a higher satisfaction and stronger relationships. Interestingly, females reduce the share of friends while males that of colleagues.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"3 1","pages":"275 - 299"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85724383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article aims to review the structural transformation in the container shipping industry from 1995 to 2020 and identify the growth strategies of global carriers to enhance their market presence. Along with large investments in mega vessels, the growing deployment of charter capacity in all ship sectors has been a prominent trend in fleet expansion. The waves of mergers/acquisitions and bankruptcies have narrowed the group of global carriers. In addition to internal and external growth, they have been increasingly involved in strategic alliances to expand service coverage and compete well with powerful rivals. A few mega carriers have progressively captured the industry. In 2020, the Top 12 controlled 88 % of the global supply, and nearly 56 % was in the hands of the Top 4. Besides the substantial expansion of the four biggest carriers, we can identify the de-concentration within this gigantic group through the less inequality between their market shares.
{"title":"Market structure and horizontal growth strategies – A case study of the container shipping industry","authors":"N. Tran","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0075","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article aims to review the structural transformation in the container shipping industry from 1995 to 2020 and identify the growth strategies of global carriers to enhance their market presence. Along with large investments in mega vessels, the growing deployment of charter capacity in all ship sectors has been a prominent trend in fleet expansion. The waves of mergers/acquisitions and bankruptcies have narrowed the group of global carriers. In addition to internal and external growth, they have been increasingly involved in strategic alliances to expand service coverage and compete well with powerful rivals. A few mega carriers have progressively captured the industry. In 2020, the Top 12 controlled 88 % of the global supply, and nearly 56 % was in the hands of the Top 4. Besides the substantial expansion of the four biggest carriers, we can identify the de-concentration within this gigantic group through the less inequality between their market shares.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"383 1","pages":"423 - 461"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85487525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We empirically examine the relationship between immigration and votes for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the 2017 German parliamentary election. We conduct a cross-sectional analysis, exploiting election results and socio-demographic as well as geographic features of the 401 German administrative districts. We find that immigration has a negative effect on AfD voting. A 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreigners is associated with a decrease in the AfD vote share of up to 0.37 percentage points. The result is robust to several estimation variations, such as addressing the potentially endogenous distribution of foreigners with an instrumental variable analysis.
{"title":"Immigration and anti-immigrant voting in the 2017 German parliamentary election","authors":"Kim Leonie Kellermann, S. Winter","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We empirically examine the relationship between immigration and votes for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in the 2017 German parliamentary election. We conduct a cross-sectional analysis, exploiting election results and socio-demographic as well as geographic features of the 401 German administrative districts. We find that immigration has a negative effect on AfD voting. A 1 percentage point increase in the share of foreigners is associated with a decrease in the AfD vote share of up to 0.37 percentage points. The result is robust to several estimation variations, such as addressing the potentially endogenous distribution of foreigners with an instrumental variable analysis.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"27 1","pages":"341 - 401"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75216955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article investigates the macro-level drivers of adult-age language learning with a focus on migration based on a new dataset on German language learning in 77 countries (including Germany) for 1992–2006. Fixed-effects regressions show that language learning abroad is strongly associated with immigration from countries of the European Union and the Schengen Area whose citizens enjoy free access to Germany, while language learning in Germany is strongly associated with immigration from countries with restricted access. The different degrees of uncertainty about access to Germany seem to be of importance for preparatory language learning. To shed light on country heterogeneities, we substitute the location fixed effects with a vector of country characteristics, which include several distance measures among others, and we estimate a random-effects model. Last, we provide some tentative arguments in favour of a causal interpretation. The main results related to the role of uncertainty are mostly unaffected. The Skilled Immigration Act from 2020 removes part of this uncertainty with potential positive effects on preparatory language learning and economic and social integration.
{"title":"A macro-level analysis of language learning and migration","authors":"Silke Uebelmesser, Annika Sommerfeld, Severin Weingarten","doi":"10.1515/ger-2020-0067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2020-0067","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article investigates the macro-level drivers of adult-age language learning with a focus on migration based on a new dataset on German language learning in 77 countries (including Germany) for 1992–2006. Fixed-effects regressions show that language learning abroad is strongly associated with immigration from countries of the European Union and the Schengen Area whose citizens enjoy free access to Germany, while language learning in Germany is strongly associated with immigration from countries with restricted access. The different degrees of uncertainty about access to Germany seem to be of importance for preparatory language learning. To shed light on country heterogeneities, we substitute the location fixed effects with a vector of country characteristics, which include several distance measures among others, and we estimate a random-effects model. Last, we provide some tentative arguments in favour of a causal interpretation. The main results related to the role of uncertainty are mostly unaffected. The Skilled Immigration Act from 2020 removes part of this uncertainty with potential positive effects on preparatory language learning and economic and social integration.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"46 1","pages":"181 - 232"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90411555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Danish manufacturing firm data reveal that 1) industries differ in within-firm worker skill (= wage) dispersion, and 2) within-firm skill dispersion positively correlates with firm productivity in industries with higher average skill dispersion. We argue that these patterns reflect technological differences between industries: firms in the “skill complementarity” industries profit from hiring similarly able workers, while the “skill substitutability” firms thrive on skill differences. Our study produces a robust, data-driven and theoretically validated classification of industries into the complementarity and substitutability groups, unveils hitherto unnoticed technological heterogeneity between industries within the same economy, and illustrates its importance through simulations.
{"title":"Skill complementarity in production technology: New empirical evidence and implications","authors":"Andrey Stoyanov, N. Zubanov","doi":"10.1515/ger-2020-0102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2020-0102","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Danish manufacturing firm data reveal that 1) industries differ in within-firm worker skill (= wage) dispersion, and 2) within-firm skill dispersion positively correlates with firm productivity in industries with higher average skill dispersion. We argue that these patterns reflect technological differences between industries: firms in the “skill complementarity” industries profit from hiring similarly able workers, while the “skill substitutability” firms thrive on skill differences. Our study produces a robust, data-driven and theoretically validated classification of industries into the complementarity and substitutability groups, unveils hitherto unnoticed technological heterogeneity between industries within the same economy, and illustrates its importance through simulations.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"52 1","pages":"233 - 274"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81208933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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