Alessandro Balestrino, Lisa Grazzini, Annalisa Luporini
The aim of this paper is to analyse the role that quantity and quality of education may play in the design of public policies. In our model, educated people enjoy a premium on their incomes, and education generates a positive externality for the society. Households live in two areas with different socio-economic characteristics. Altruistic parents choose both the amount and the quality of schooling they want for their children, ignoring the external effect. The latter is, instead, taken into account by the government, which is assumed to provide a composite education service that has a quantity as well as a quality dimension, and is financed mainly via taxes on the income of the parents. We investigate the effects on welfare of balanced-budget policy reforms aimed at introducing or raising i) school fees, and ii) vouchers meant to compensate the costs of attending high-quality schools. We show that, if the external effects are not considered, school fees improve private parental welfare while vouchers do not. Parental altruism is not enough to support high levels of quantity and quality of education. The consideration of social welfare, i.e. inclusive of the impact of the externality, somewhat mitigates the above results, by favouring lower (albeit positive) fees and allowing vouchers to increase social welfare under some circumstances.
{"title":"School Fees and Vouchers when Quality of Education Matters","authors":"Alessandro Balestrino, Lisa Grazzini, Annalisa Luporini","doi":"10.1515/ger-2023-0058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0058","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to analyse the role that quantity and quality of education may play in the design of public policies. In our model, educated people enjoy a premium on their incomes, and education generates a positive externality for the society. Households live in two areas with different socio-economic characteristics. Altruistic parents choose both the amount and the quality of schooling they want for their children, ignoring the external effect. The latter is, instead, taken into account by the government, which is assumed to provide a composite education service that has a quantity as well as a quality dimension, and is financed mainly via taxes on the income of the parents. We investigate the effects on welfare of balanced-budget policy reforms aimed at introducing or raising i) school fees, and ii) vouchers meant to compensate the costs of attending high-quality schools. We show that, if the external effects are not considered, school fees improve <jats:italic>private</jats:italic> parental welfare while vouchers do not. Parental altruism is not enough to support high levels of quantity and quality of education. The consideration of <jats:italic>social</jats:italic> welfare, i.e. inclusive of the impact of the externality, somewhat mitigates the above results, by favouring lower (albeit positive) fees and allowing vouchers to increase social welfare under some circumstances.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140055074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lars Brausewetter, Stephan L. Thomsen, Johannes Trunzer
Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-adjusted housing price data at the district level, we show that regional fundamentals explain up to two-thirds of between-region and 77 to 87 percent of within-region variation in price growth. Price increases were driven mainly by co-movements in local demand fundamentals, notably population density and skill level. However, we further reveal systematic variation unrelated to fundamentals: overvaluation of top 7 cities, path dependency, and spatial spillovers. We infer that speculation, investor preference for liquid markets, and bounded rationality contributed substantially to the recent housing price boom in Germany.
{"title":"Regional Supply and Demand Fundamentals in the German Housing Price Boom","authors":"Lars Brausewetter, Stephan L. Thomsen, Johannes Trunzer","doi":"10.1515/ger-2023-0063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0063","url":null,"abstract":"Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-adjusted housing price data at the district level, we show that regional fundamentals explain up to two-thirds of between-region and 77 to 87 percent of within-region variation in price growth. Price increases were driven mainly by co-movements in local demand fundamentals, notably population density and skill level. However, we further reveal systematic variation unrelated to fundamentals: overvaluation of top 7 cities, path dependency, and spatial spillovers. We infer that speculation, investor preference for liquid markets, and bounded rationality contributed substantially to the recent housing price boom in Germany.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138580494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We study the impact of COVID-19 on firm performance. Using financial accounts of a large number of German firms, we document that industry affiliation is an important economic dimension of the crisis. Motivated by this fact, we analyze an important industry-specific regulation, system relevance, which allows businesses to remain open in times of lockdown and other restrictions. A difference-in-differences estimation strategy shows that relative revenues of system-relevant firms increase by 6–9 percent and profits by 17–25 percent due to COVID. Controlling for channels that are arguably not driven by the system-relevance regulation, the impact on revenues decreases but remains significant. Overall, results indicate that regulations affecting the ability to operate as well as industry-level shocks play important roles for firm performance during a pandemic-induced crisis.
{"title":"System Relevance and Firm Performance Due to COVID-19","authors":"Michael Böhm, Pamela Qendrai","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4636862","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4636862","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study the impact of COVID-19 on firm performance. Using financial accounts of a large number of German firms, we document that industry affiliation is an important economic dimension of the crisis. Motivated by this fact, we analyze an important industry-specific regulation, system relevance, which allows businesses to remain open in times of lockdown and other restrictions. A difference-in-differences estimation strategy shows that relative revenues of system-relevant firms increase by 6–9 percent and profits by 17–25 percent due to COVID. Controlling for channels that are arguably not driven by the system-relevance regulation, the impact on revenues decreases but remains significant. Overall, results indicate that regulations affecting the ability to operate as well as industry-level shocks play important roles for firm performance during a pandemic-induced crisis.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"2 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138591902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We provide insights on how job search changed in the Covid-19-crisis by analysing data from the LinkedIn professional network for Germany. We find that competition among workers for jobs strongly increased – which is due to additional job seekers rather than higher search intensity. Furthermore, the LinkedIn data show that people from industries particularly affected by the crisis applied much more frequently and there had been a substantial shift in the target industries for applications. Finally, we find that at the onset of the Covid-19-crises applications were made significantly more often below and significantly less often above a person’s level of seniority.
{"title":"Competing for Jobs: How COVID-19 Changes Search Behaviour in the Labour Market","authors":"Anja Bauer, Kristin Keveloh, Mariano Mamertino, Enzo Weber","doi":"10.1515/ger-2021-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2021-0010","url":null,"abstract":"We provide insights on how job search changed in the Covid-19-crisis by analysing data from the LinkedIn professional network for Germany. We find that competition among workers for jobs strongly increased – which is due to additional job seekers rather than higher search intensity. Furthermore, the LinkedIn data show that people from industries particularly affected by the crisis applied much more frequently and there had been a substantial shift in the target industries for applications. Finally, we find that at the onset of the Covid-19-crises applications were made significantly more often below and significantly less often above a person’s level of seniority.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"122 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138580334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the impact of COVID-19 on firm performance. Using financial accounts of a large number of German firms, we document that industry affiliation is an important economic dimension of the crisis. Motivated by this fact, we analyze an important industry-specific regulation, system relevance, which allows businesses to remain open in times of lockdown and other restrictions. A difference-in-differences estimation strategy shows that relative revenues of system-relevant firms increase by 6–9 percent and profits by 17–25 percent due to COVID. Controlling for channels that are arguably not driven by the system-relevance regulation, the impact on revenues decreases but remains significant. Overall, results indicate that regulations affecting the ability to operate as well as industry-level shocks play important roles for firm performance during a pandemic-induced crisis.
{"title":"System Relevance and Firm Performance Due to COVID-19","authors":"Michael J. Böhm, Pamela Qendrai","doi":"10.1515/ger-2023-0070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0070","url":null,"abstract":"We study the impact of COVID-19 on firm performance. Using financial accounts of a large number of German firms, we document that industry affiliation is an important economic dimension of the crisis. Motivated by this fact, we analyze an important industry-specific regulation, system relevance, which allows businesses to remain open in times of lockdown and other restrictions. A difference-in-differences estimation strategy shows that relative revenues of system-relevant firms increase by 6–9 percent and profits by 17–25 percent due to COVID. Controlling for channels that are arguably not driven by the system-relevance regulation, the impact on revenues decreases but remains significant. Overall, results indicate that regulations affecting the ability to operate as well as industry-level shocks play important roles for firm performance during a pandemic-induced crisis.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138580338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper investigates how housing prices respond to economic, financial and demographic conditions in emerging markets in Europe. We use quarterly data covering 10 countries over the period 1998–2022 and implement a panel quantile regression approach to obtain a granular analysis of real estate markets. Overall, economic, financial and demographic developments explain real house price growth in emerging Europe, with income growth having the most significant impact. Quantile regression estimations show that income growth matters more for higher quantiles of the property market. We also find that an increase in short-term or long-term interest rates has a price-dampening impact, indicating that a higher cost of borrowing is associated with lower real house price growth. These results indicate that the downturn in house prices could deepen with the looming economic recession and soaring interest rates.
{"title":"Don’t Look Up: House Prices in Emerging Europe","authors":"Serhan Cevik, Sadhna Naik","doi":"10.1515/ger-2023-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates how housing prices respond to economic, financial and demographic conditions in emerging markets in Europe. We use quarterly data covering 10 countries over the period 1998–2022 and implement a panel quantile regression approach to obtain a granular analysis of real estate markets. Overall, economic, financial and demographic developments explain real house price growth in emerging Europe, with income growth having the most significant impact. Quantile regression estimations show that income growth matters more for higher quantiles of the property market. We also find that an increase in short-term or long-term interest rates has a price-dampening impact, indicating that a higher cost of borrowing is associated with lower real house price growth. These results indicate that the downturn in house prices could deepen with the looming economic recession and soaring interest rates.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135944867","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We examine the effectiveness of church service bans in containing the spread of Covid-19 in Germany. We furthermore investigate how differences in the local religious affiliations affect infections and the effectiveness of church bans and other church-related restrictions. We find that, without a ban, infections per capita are higher in districts (Landkreise) with larger shares of religious population. In panel analysis, controlling for district fixed effects and a host of potential confounders, we find that church bans effectively reduce infections. For a ban in place for 14 days before a considered day, the predicted growth factor of infections is lower by 0.9 of its standard deviation. Finally, we show that Easter contributed significantly to the growth of infections in 2020 and 2021. The growth factor of infections was lower in regions with larger shares of Catholics and Protestants during Easter 2020 (when a church ban was in place) but not in 2021 (without a ban).
{"title":"Corona and the Cross: Religious Affiliation, Church Bans, and Covid Infections","authors":"H. Strulik, Slava Yakubenko","doi":"10.1515/ger-2022-0131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2022-0131","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We examine the effectiveness of church service bans in containing the spread of Covid-19 in Germany. We furthermore investigate how differences in the local religious affiliations affect infections and the effectiveness of church bans and other church-related restrictions. We find that, without a ban, infections per capita are higher in districts (Landkreise) with larger shares of religious population. In panel analysis, controlling for district fixed effects and a host of potential confounders, we find that church bans effectively reduce infections. For a ban in place for 14 days before a considered day, the predicted growth factor of infections is lower by 0.9 of its standard deviation. Finally, we show that Easter contributed significantly to the growth of infections in 2020 and 2021. The growth factor of infections was lower in regions with larger shares of Catholics and Protestants during Easter 2020 (when a church ban was in place) but not in 2021 (without a ban).","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81662446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Using multinomial logit methodology for financing application decisions for bank loans, credit lines and trade credits, we show that firms’ financial behavior is driven by their lagged experience. Moreover, the optimism and pessimism of firms (animal spirit) is another important determinant. Our results stress the importance of the behavioral perspective to corporate finance. The policy of quantitative easing of the ECB had only weak effects on the access to banking loans, while it was significantly correlated with lower internal funding. Our results have possible implications to understand the behavioral dynamics of corporate financing structure the in the post pandemic period.
{"title":"Experience and Firms’ Financing Behavior: A Behavioral Perspective","authors":"J. Fidrmuc, Florian Horky","doi":"10.1515/ger-2022-0102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2022-0102","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using multinomial logit methodology for financing application decisions for bank loans, credit lines and trade credits, we show that firms’ financial behavior is driven by their lagged experience. Moreover, the optimism and pessimism of firms (animal spirit) is another important determinant. Our results stress the importance of the behavioral perspective to corporate finance. The policy of quantitative easing of the ECB had only weak effects on the access to banking loans, while it was significantly correlated with lower internal funding. Our results have possible implications to understand the behavioral dynamics of corporate financing structure the in the post pandemic period.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81369228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has been an unprecedented shock to economic activity with abrupt and unexpected changes in household consumption behavior. This paper investigates how the spread of the pandemic and government interventions have affected consumer spending using daily card transaction data in the Baltics. The analysis shows significant effects on the amount and composition of debit and credit card transactions. First, the number of new COVID-19 infections or deaths has a strongly negative effect. Second, while public health measures designed to contain the spread of the pandemic has a negative effect, economic support measures designed to assist businesses and households have a stimulative effect. Third, there is heterogeneity across spending categories, but the drop is mostly concentrated in sectors that are restricted by lockdowns and the risk of infection. Fourth, the impact of government interventions, especially in terms of stimulating consumer spending, appears to be more pronounced on goods than services.
{"title":"Show Me the Money: Tracking Consumer Spending with Daily Card Transaction Data During the Pandemic","authors":"Serhan Cevik","doi":"10.1515/ger-2023-0040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2023-0040","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has been an unprecedented shock to economic activity with abrupt and unexpected changes in household consumption behavior. This paper investigates how the spread of the pandemic and government interventions have affected consumer spending using daily card transaction data in the Baltics. The analysis shows significant effects on the amount and composition of debit and credit card transactions. First, the number of new COVID-19 infections or deaths has a strongly negative effect. Second, while public health measures designed to contain the spread of the pandemic has a negative effect, economic support measures designed to assist businesses and households have a stimulative effect. Third, there is heterogeneity across spending categories, but the drop is mostly concentrated in sectors that are restricted by lockdowns and the risk of infection. Fourth, the impact of government interventions, especially in terms of stimulating consumer spending, appears to be more pronounced on goods than services.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136375586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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