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“Thanks in advance” – The negative effect of a polite phrase on compliance with a request “提前感谢”——礼貌用语对满足要求的负面影响
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-18 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0020
Lisa V. Bruttel, Juri Nithammer, Florian Stolley
Abstract This paper studies the effect of the commonly used phrase “thanks in advance” on compliance with a small request. In a controlled laboratory experiment we ask participants to give a detailed answer to an open question. The treatment variable is whether or not they see the phrase “thanks in advance.” Our participants react to the treatment by exerting less effort in answering the request even though they perceive the phrase as polite.
摘要本文研究了常用短语“提前感谢”对小请求遵从的影响。在一个受控的实验室实验中,我们要求参与者对一个开放性问题给出详细的答案。治疗变量是他们是否看到“提前感谢”这句话。我们的参与者对这种待遇的反应是,即使他们认为这句话是礼貌的,也会在回答请求时付出更少的努力。
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引用次数: 0
Do balanced-budget fiscal stimuli of investment increase its economic value? 平衡预算的财政刺激投资会增加其经济价值吗?
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-09-18 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0059
C. Dosi, M. Moretto, R. Tamborini
Abstract We examine the timing of a business investment providing valuable external benefits to society. A surge in uncertainty about private returns, a typical feature if not a cause of recessions, delays capital outlays to an extent that may be detrimental to social welfare. Is there an efficiency-improving public policy directed at accelerating investment? By real option analysis, we try answering this question by comparing three fiscal policies: (i) a simple subsidy on investment, (ii) a balanced-budget fiscal stimulus where the subsidy is subsequently covered by profit taxation, and (iii) by taxing external benefits as well. We show that, under a balanced-budget stimulus, investment acceleration may come at the expense of a net economic loss, and the higher is uncertainty on private returns, the higher the likehood of a negative outcome. However, this risk strongly declines when government spending is balanced by taxing both private and public returns on investment.
摘要:我们研究了为社会提供有价值的外部利益的商业投资时机。私人回报的不确定性激增,即使不是经济衰退的原因,也是一个典型特征,它在一定程度上推迟了资本支出,可能对社会福利有害。是否有一项旨在促进投资的提高效率的公共政策?通过实物期权分析,我们试图通过比较三种财政政策来回答这个问题:(i)对投资的简单补贴,(ii)平衡预算的财政刺激,其中补贴随后由利得税覆盖,以及(iii)对外部利益也征税。我们表明,在平衡预算刺激下,投资加速可能以净经济损失为代价,私人回报的不确定性越高,出现负面结果的可能性就越高。然而,当政府通过对私人和公共投资回报征税来平衡支出时,这种风险就会大幅下降。
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引用次数: 1
Frontmatter
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-frontmatter3
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引用次数: 0
A direct measure of subjective business uncertainty 主观业务不确定性的直接度量
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-07-08 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2021-0025
C. Glocker, Werner Hölzl
Abstract We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations. Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of respondents directly.
摘要:我们提出了一种基于商业调查的不确定性度量,其中不确定性直接由关于预期的主观不确定性的定性问题捕获。不确定性感知在公司层面显示持久性,变化与过去的业务评估和期望有关。虽然我们的不确定性测量与常用的替代方法相关,但它在预测方面更优越,并表明不确定性冲击对总波动的作用更大。如果考虑规模较小的企业或增长率较低的企业,其信息含量最高。我们的研究结果证实了从商业调查问题中构建不确定性度量的可行性,这些不确定性度量可以直接引出被调查者的不确定性信息。
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引用次数: 4
Après-ski: The spread of coronavirus from Ischgl through Germany aprires -ski:冠状病毒从以色列传播到德国
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0063
Gabriel Felbermayr, Julian Hinz, Sonali Chowdhry
Abstract The Austrian ski resort of Ischgl is commonly claimed to be ground zero for the diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the first wave of infections experienced by Germany. Drawing on data for 401 German counties, we find that conditional on geographical latitude and testing behavior by health authorities, road distance to Ischgl is indeed an important predictor of infection cases, but – in line with expectations – not of fatality rates. Were all German counties located as far from Ischgl as the most distant county of Vorpommern-Rügen, Germany would have seen about 45 % fewer COVID-19 cases. A simple diffusion model predicts that the absolute value of the distance-to-Ischgl elasticity should fall over time when inter- and intra-county mobility are unrestricted. We test this hypothesis and conclude that the German lockdown measures have halted the spread of the virus.
在德国经历的第一波SARS-CoV-2感染中,奥地利滑雪胜地Ischgl通常被认为是传播的起点。根据401个德国县的数据,我们发现,在地理纬度和卫生当局的检测行为的条件下,到Ischgl的道路距离确实是感染病例的重要预测指标,但与预期一致,不是死亡率的预测指标。如果德国所有县都像前波莫恩-雷根州最遥远的县那样远离伊斯切尔,德国的COVID-19病例将减少45%左右。一个简单的扩散模型预测,当县间和县内的流动性不受限制时,到ischgl的距离弹性的绝对值应该随时间下降。我们检验了这一假设,并得出结论:德国的封锁措施已经阻止了病毒的传播。
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引用次数: 40
Nudging openly – An experimental analysis of nudge transparency in a public goods setting 公开推动——对公共物品环境下推动透明度的实验分析
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-05-13 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2019-076
Erika Große Hokamp, Joachim Weimann
Abstract Around the world, policy makers and public authorities are increasingly turning to behaviorally informed interventions (“nudges”) in order to help tackle important contexts of public policy. Despite their impressive merit record, these policy tools have been heavily criticized as being obscure and manipulative, thus facing challenges for their legitimate assertion in the regulatory toolkit. In this study, we seek to assess whether transparency over the use of such interventions may constitute a viable way of addressing these ethical concerns, and focus particularly on the potentially moderating role of something we call “status quo experience”, i. e. subjects’ understanding of the behavioral consequences of different choice architectures. We conduct a laboratory experiment, whereby subjects play three rounds of a public good game, the first of which defaults them towards a fully non-cooperative contribution, while the rest default them towards a fully cooperative one. Subjects in our treatment groups further receive an “informational shock” at varying points in time, disclosing how and why a fully cooperative default contribution is being used. We find that providing subjects with informational disclosure about the nudge intervention did not result in significantly different aggregate behavioral measurements between control and treatment groups. This seems to be independent of status quo experience and of the timing of transparency provision. We nonetheless find some indication that the latter could help sustain cooperation over time.
在世界各地,决策者和公共当局越来越多地转向行为知情干预(“轻推”),以帮助解决公共政策的重要背景。尽管这些政策工具有着令人印象深刻的功绩记录,但它们因模糊和操纵性而受到严厉批评,因此它们在监管工具中的合法主张面临挑战。在本研究中,我们试图评估使用此类干预措施的透明度是否可能构成解决这些伦理问题的可行方法,并特别关注我们称之为“现状经验”的潜在调节作用。受试者对不同选择架构的行为后果的理解。我们进行了一个实验室实验,实验对象玩了三轮公共产品游戏,第一轮默认他们做出完全不合作的贡献,而其余的默认他们做出完全合作的贡献。我们治疗组的受试者在不同的时间点进一步接受“信息冲击”,披露如何以及为什么使用完全合作的默认贡献。我们发现,向被试提供助推干预的信息披露并没有导致对照组和实验组之间的总体行为测量有显著差异。这似乎与现状经验和透明度规定的时间无关。尽管如此,我们还是发现了一些迹象,表明后者有助于长期维持合作。
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引用次数: 2
The effects of financing rules in pay-as-you-go pension systems on the life and the business cycle 现收现付养老金制度融资规则对生活和商业周期的影响
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-05-11 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0037
Christian Scharrer
Abstract Empirically, revenues of public pension systems are more volatile than expenditures. Therefore, the question arises how the social security authority should buffer its revenues and adjust its contributions over the business cycle. This paper studies the corresponding effects on the life cycle of households and the business cycle in a large-scale overlapping generations model. In particular, the labor supply is endogenous and takes the intertemporal links between contributions and pension benefits into account. Sluggish adjustments of contribution rates that are implemented by adjusting a financial buffer stock both stabilize an economy and decrease the volatility of lifetime utilities of most workers and retirees, in contrast to sole adjustments of contribution rates. However, changes of consumption, capital income, or lump sum taxes, which aim to balance public pension budgets, improve the allocation of aggregate risk across cohorts for people up to an age of at least 71 years.
从经验上看,公共养老金制度的收入比支出更具波动性。因此,问题出现了,社会保障当局应如何缓冲其收入,并在商业周期中调整其缴款。本文在一个大规模代际重叠模型中研究了家庭生活周期和经济周期的相应影响。特别是,劳动力供给是内生的,并考虑了缴费和养老金福利之间的跨期联系。与单独调整缴费率相比,通过调整金融缓冲存量实施的缴费率缓慢调整既稳定了经济,又减少了大多数工人和退休人员终身公用事业的波动性。然而,旨在平衡公共养老金预算的消费、资本收入或一次性税收的变化,改善了至少71岁以下人群的总风险分配。
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引用次数: 0
Financial literacy, institutions and education: Lessons from the German reunification 金融知识、制度和教育:来自德国统一的教训
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-05-08 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0027
M. Davoli, J. Hou
Abstract A growing body of literature highlights the importance of financial literacy in affecting household choices. However, much fewer studies focus on understanding the determinants of different levels of financial literacy. Our paper contributes to filling this gap by analyzing a specific determinant, i. e., the educational system, to explain the heterogeneity of financial literacy scores across Germany. The results suggest that the lower financial literacy observed in East Germany can be partially attributed to the different institutional framework experienced during the Cold War, more specifically, to the socialist educational system experienced in East Germany, which affected specific cohorts of individuals. By exploiting the unique set-up of the German reunification, we identify education as a channel through which institutions and financial literacy are related in the German context. In support of this hypothesis, we find that individuals exposed to the Eastern educational system exhibit 12 %12hspace{0.1667em}% to 21 %21hspace{0.1667em}% lower financial literacy scores compared with the households in the control group, not exposed to such system.
越来越多的文献强调了金融知识在影响家庭选择中的重要性。然而,很少有研究关注于理解不同水平的金融知识的决定因素。我们的论文通过分析一个特定的行列式来填补这一空白。以解释德国各地金融知识得分的异质性。结果表明,在东德观察到的较低的金融素养可以部分归因于冷战期间经历的不同制度框架,更具体地说,是东德经历的社会主义教育制度,这影响了特定的个人群体。通过利用德国统一的独特设置,我们将教育确定为德国背景下机构和金融知识相关的渠道。为了支持这一假设,我们发现,与没有接受过东方教育体系的对照组家庭相比,接受东方教育体系的个人的金融素养得分要低12%至21%。
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引用次数: 2
Keep your friends close and your enemies closer – the case of monetary policy and financial imbalances 亲近你的朋友,更亲近你的敌人——货币政策和金融失衡的例子
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2020-0045
Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska, Łukasz Kurowski
Abstract The global financial crisis (GFC) has shown that monetary policy focused on a stable price level may negatively affect the stability of the financial system. Therefore, achieving price and financial stability using interest rates as the main tool is difficult. In this paper, we analyse how often monetary policy strengthened imbalances in the financial system in 20 countries from 1999Q1 to 2020Q2. To this end, we compare monetary policy stance with a novel financial imbalance index (FII). We find that monetary policy is material in aggravating financial imbalances mostly in Eurozone countries. We attribute this finding to the ECB’s “too loose, too long” monetary policy and to difficulties with applying single monetary policies in countries with different economic conditions and in different phases of credit and financial cycles. Our results point to a need for a proactive macroprudential policy in the environment of low interest rates.
摘要全球金融危机表明,以稳定物价水平为重点的货币政策可能会对金融体系的稳定产生负面影响。因此,以利率为主要工具实现物价和金融稳定是困难的。在本文中,我们分析了从1999年第一季度到2020年第二季度,货币政策加剧20个国家金融体系失衡的频率。为此,我们将货币政策立场与一种新的金融失衡指数(FII)进行比较。我们发现,货币政策是加剧欧元区国家金融失衡的主要原因。我们将这一发现归因于欧洲央行“太宽松、太长”的货币政策,以及在不同经济状况、信贷和金融周期不同阶段的国家实施单一货币政策的困难。我们的研究结果表明,在低利率环境下,需要采取积极的宏观审慎政策。
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引用次数: 1
Triplets, quads and quints: Estimating disaggregate trade elasticities with different odds ratios 三胞胎、四胞胎和五胞胎:用不同优势比估计非总贸易弹性
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-03-03 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2019-0128
Adrienne Margarete Bohlmann
Abstract Trade elasticities are a crucial variable for research on international trade. Caliendo and Parro (2015) provide a novel method to estimate trade elasticities which is based on odds ratio triplets calculated from structural gravity equations. We find that these odds ratios can be set up not only as triplets, but also e. g. as quadruplets (quads) and quintuples (quints). We estimate trade elasticities from triplets, quads and quints for the two digit level of ISIC Rev.3. The corresponding estimates show certain differences, but the results are generally robust. Because the different odds ratios are all theoretically validated, we suggest using them for checking robustness. Benefits could also arise because larger odds ratios might be able to provide more reliable estimates.
贸易弹性是研究国际贸易的一个重要变量。Caliendo和Parro(2015)提供了一种估算贸易弹性的新方法,该方法基于从结构重力方程计算的优势比三元组。我们发现这些比值比不仅可以建立在三联体,而且可以建立在例如。如四胞胎(quads)和五胞胎(quints)。我们从ISIC Rev.3的两位数水平的三位数、四位数和五位数来估计贸易弹性。相应的估计显示出一定的差异,但结果通常是可靠的。因为不同的比值比都是理论上验证的,我们建议使用它们来检查稳健性。好处也可能出现,因为较大的比值比可能能够提供更可靠的估计。
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引用次数: 0
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German Economic Review
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