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Frontmatter 头版头条
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
German Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2023-frontmatter3
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of the German Fuel Discount on Prices at the Petrol Pump 德国燃油折扣对汽油价格的影响
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
German Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2022-0108
Volker Seiler, Nico Stöckmann
Abstract This paper investigates the price impact of the fuel discount in Germany, which was introduced between June and August 2022 to partially compensate increased energy costs. Using the augmented synthetic control method (ASCM) to construct the counterfactual, we provide quantitative evidence to the heated debate concerning the impact of this policy tool and find the fuel discount to have decreased consumer prices of petrol (diesel) by at least 0.30 euro per litre (0.10 euro per litre) on average. The results are robust to various sensitivity checks. Thus, oil companies and petrol stations decreased prices for consumers and passed on about 85 % (65 %) of the discount in case of petrol (diesel). Moreover, we do not find signs of excessive price increases in anticipation of the fuel discount.
摘要本文研究了德国燃料折扣的价格影响，该折扣于2022年6月至8月推出，以部分补偿能源成本的增加。使用增强合成控制方法(ASCM)构建反事实，我们为关于这一政策工具影响的激烈辩论提供了定量证据，并发现燃料折扣使汽油(柴油)的消费者价格平均降低了至少0.30欧元/升(0.10欧元/升)。结果对各种灵敏度检查具有鲁棒性。因此，石油公司和加油站将汽油(柴油)价格的85 %(65 %)转嫁给了消费者。此外，我们没有发现预期燃油折扣导致价格过度上涨的迹象。
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引用次数: 1
Frontmatter 头版头条
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
German Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2023-frontmatter2
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引用次数: 0
The Instability of the Market for Government Bonds in the EMU 欧洲货币联盟政府债券市场的不稳定性
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
German Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2022-0082
Joern Kleinert
Abstract The introduction of the Transmission Protection Instrument is the latest evidence, that the EMU is confronted with unstable markets for government bonds. Based on a parsimonious model of the government bond market, I argue, that this results from the introduction of the euro, which has homogenized government bonds. Now, several easily substitutable bonds are traded at the same time. Investors sort according to return and risk instead of along currencies. This self-selection, however, creates instability in crises. Price convergence and sorting characterized the first decade of the euro, instability the second.
传输保护工具的引入是欧洲货币联盟面临政府债券市场不稳定的最新证据。基于政府债券市场的简约模型，我认为，这是欧元引入的结果，欧元使政府债券同质化。现在，几种容易替代的债券同时交易。投资者根据回报和风险进行分类，而不是根据货币进行分类。然而，这种自我选择在危机中造成了不稳定。欧元的第一个十年是价格趋同和分类，第二个十年则是不稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Interest Rate Persistence and Monetary Policy Rule in Light of Model Uncertainty 模型不确定性下的利率持续性与货币政策规则
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
German Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2022-0076
Shou-Yung Yin, Chang-Ching Lin, Ming-Jen Chang
Abstract We study how model uncertainty affects the understanding of the interest rate persistence using a generalized Taylor-rule function covering numerous submodels via model average approach. The data-driven weights can be regarded as a measure of power-sharing across monetary policy committee members. We show that the model uncertainty is important in Canada, France, and Sweden, and the implied weights indicate that the U.K. and the U.S. have a lower model uncertainty caused either by an over-influential chairman or the consistent agreement of committee members. The importance of model uncertainty can be emphasized by sequential estimation during the 2008 financial crisis.
摘要本文通过模型平均方法，利用覆盖多个子模型的广义泰勒规则函数，研究了模型不确定性如何影响对利率持久性的理解。数据驱动的权重可以被视为衡量货币政策委员会成员之间权力分享的一种指标。我们发现，模型不确定性在加拿大、法国和瑞典很重要，隐含的权重表明，英国和美国的模型不确定性较低，这可能是由于主席的影响力过大或委员会成员的一致同意造成的。2008年金融危机期间的序列估计可以强调模型不确定性的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Extreme Weather Events and Economic Activity: The Case of Low Water Levels on the Rhine River 极端天气事件与经济活动:以莱茵河低水位为例
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
German Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-03-14 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2022-0077
Marten Ademmer, Nils Jannsen, Saskia Meuchelböck
Abstract We make use of historical data on water levels on the Rhine river to analyze the impact of weather-related supply shocks on economic activity in Germany. Our analysis shows that low water levels lead to severe disruptions in inland water transportation and cause a significant and economically meaningful decrease of economic activity. In a month with 30 days of low water, industrial production in Germany declines by about 1 percent, ceteris paribus. Our analysis highlights the importance of extreme weather events for business cycle analysis and contributes to gauging the costs of extreme weather events in advanced economies.
我们利用莱茵河水位的历史数据来分析与天气有关的供应冲击对德国经济活动的影响。我们的分析表明，低水位导致内河运输的严重中断，并导致经济活动的显著和有经济意义的减少。在30天缺水的一个月里，德国的工业生产在其他条件不变的情况下下降了约1%。我们的分析强调了极端天气事件对商业周期分析的重要性，并有助于衡量发达经济体极端天气事件的成本。
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引用次数: 0
Good Bye Lenin Revisited: East-West Preferences Three Decades after German Reunification. 再见，列宁重访:德国统一三十年后的东西方偏好。
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
German Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2022-0042
Mariia Bondar, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln

In this paper, we document that living under Communism versus Capitalism has lasting effects on preferences for a strong government. Relying on the natural experiment of German reunification and extending the analysis of Alesina and Fuchs-Schündeln (2007), we show that East Germans still have stronger preferences for redistribution than West Germans 27 years after reunification. While convergence of preferences occurs, the speed of convergence decreases significantly over time. Evidence from cohorts born after German reunification points towards significant intergenerational transmission of preferences.

在本文中，我们证明了生活在共产主义与资本主义制度下对强势政府的偏好有持久的影响。基于德国统一的自然实验，并扩展Alesina和fuchs - sch ndeln(2007)的分析，我们发现在统一27年后，东德人对再分配的偏好仍然比西德人更强。当偏好趋同发生时，趋同的速度会随着时间的推移而显著降低。来自两德统一后出生的人群的证据表明，偏好存在显著的代际传递。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of COVID-19 on Bank Profitability: Cross-Country Evidence COVID-19对银行盈利能力的影响:跨国证据
IF 1.1 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
German Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4318881
E. Augeraud-Véron, Whelsy Boungou
Abstract Using data from 5474 banks located in 23 OECD countries over the period 2019Q2–2022Q1, we study the influence of COVID-19 on bank profitability (before and during the COVID-19 vaccination period). Our results show a negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on bank profitability, especially at the onset of the health crisis. In addition, we find that vaccination against COVID-19 had a positive effect on bank profitability, not yet sufficient to compensate for the losses generated at the beginning of the pandemic. Finally, we show that these effects depend on the characteristics of banks (notably size and capital) before vaccination and on the severity of the crisis across countries. Overall, we provide the first evidence of the influence of vaccination on bank behavior in terms of profitability.
利用2019Q2-2022Q1期间来自23个经合组织国家5474家银行的数据，我们研究了COVID-19对银行盈利能力的影响(在COVID-19疫苗接种之前和期间)。我们的研究结果显示，COVID-19大流行对银行盈利能力产生了负面影响，尤其是在卫生危机爆发时。此外，我们发现COVID-19疫苗接种对银行盈利能力产生了积极影响，但尚不足以弥补大流行开始时造成的损失。最后，我们表明，这些影响取决于疫苗接种前银行的特征(尤其是规模和资本)以及各国危机的严重程度。总体而言，我们提供了疫苗接种对银行盈利能力影响的第一个证据。
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引用次数: 1
Frontmatter 头版头条
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
German Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2023-frontmatter1
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of COVID-19 on Bank Profitability: Cross-Country Evidence COVID-19对银行盈利能力的影响:跨国证据
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
German Economic Review
Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.1515/ger-2022-0089
Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron, Whelsy Boungou
Abstract Using data from 5474 banks located in 23 OECD countries over the period 2019Q2–2022Q1, we study the influence of COVID-19 on bank profitability (before and during the COVID-19 vaccination period). Our results show a negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on bank profitability, especially at the onset of the health crisis. In addition, we find that vaccination against COVID-19 had a positive effect on bank profitability, not yet sufficient to compensate for the losses generated at the beginning of the pandemic. Finally, we show that these effects depend on the characteristics of banks (notably size and capital) before vaccination and on the severity of the crisis across countries. Overall, we provide the first evidence of the influence of vaccination on bank behavior in terms of profitability.
利用2019Q2-2022Q1期间来自23个经合组织国家5474家银行的数据，我们研究了COVID-19对银行盈利能力的影响(在COVID-19疫苗接种之前和期间)。我们的研究结果显示，COVID-19大流行对银行盈利能力产生了负面影响，尤其是在卫生危机爆发时。此外，我们发现COVID-19疫苗接种对银行盈利能力产生了积极影响，但尚不足以弥补大流行开始时造成的损失。最后，我们表明，这些影响取决于疫苗接种前银行的特征(尤其是规模和资本)以及各国危机的严重程度。总体而言，我们提供了疫苗接种对银行盈利能力影响的第一个证据。
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引用次数: 1
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