Abstract Incomplete capital markets and credit constraints for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are often considered obstacles to economic growth, thus motivating government interventions in capital markets. While such policies are common, it is less clear to what extent these interventions result in firm growth or to which firms interventions should be targeted. Using a unique dataset with information about state bank loans targeting credit-constrained SMEs in Sweden with and without complementary private bank loans, this paper contributes to the literature by studying how these loans affect the targeted firms for several outcome variables. The results suggest that the loans create a one-off increase in investments, with long-term, positive effects for sales and labor productivity but only for firms with 10 or fewer employees. Increased access to capital by firms can therefore produce increases in economic output but only in a specific type of firm. This insight is of key importance in designing policy if the aim is to increase economic growth.
{"title":"Take it to the (public) bank: The efficiency of public bank loans to private firms","authors":"Anders Kärnä","doi":"10.1515/ger-2019-0023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2019-0023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Incomplete capital markets and credit constraints for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are often considered obstacles to economic growth, thus motivating government interventions in capital markets. While such policies are common, it is less clear to what extent these interventions result in firm growth or to which firms interventions should be targeted. Using a unique dataset with information about state bank loans targeting credit-constrained SMEs in Sweden with and without complementary private bank loans, this paper contributes to the literature by studying how these loans affect the targeted firms for several outcome variables. The results suggest that the loans create a one-off increase in investments, with long-term, positive effects for sales and labor productivity but only for firms with 10 or fewer employees. Increased access to capital by firms can therefore produce increases in economic output but only in a specific type of firm. This insight is of key importance in designing policy if the aim is to increase economic growth.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"48 1","pages":"27 - 62"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80885206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kristina Altmann, René Bernard, Julia Le Blanc, Enikő Gábor-Tóth, Malik Hebbat, Lisa Kothmayr, T. Schmidt, P. Tzamourani, Daniel Werner, Junyi Zhu
Abstract The Panel on Household Finances (PHF) has established itself as one of the leading sources of microdata on households’ wealth in Germany since its inception in 2010. Over the last ten years, more than 7,583 households have participated in the surveys in 2010–11, 2014 and 2017, many of them taking part more than once (3,734 households). This paper provides an overview of the contents, main methodological aspects and use of the PHF data. It also highlights differences to other surveys and addresses how the survey may develop in the future.
{"title":"The Panel on Household Finances (PHF) – Microdata on household wealth in Germany","authors":"Kristina Altmann, René Bernard, Julia Le Blanc, Enikő Gábor-Tóth, Malik Hebbat, Lisa Kothmayr, T. Schmidt, P. Tzamourani, Daniel Werner, Junyi Zhu","doi":"10.1515/ger-2019-0122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2019-0122","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Panel on Household Finances (PHF) has established itself as one of the leading sources of microdata on households’ wealth in Germany since its inception in 2010. Over the last ten years, more than 7,583 households have participated in the surveys in 2010–11, 2014 and 2017, many of them taking part more than once (3,734 households). This paper provides an overview of the contents, main methodological aspects and use of the PHF data. It also highlights differences to other surveys and addresses how the survey may develop in the future.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"89 1","pages":"373 - 400"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84437540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The Research Data Centre at the Institute for Employment Research (RDC-IAB) has been offering high-quality administrative and survey data on the German labour market for 15 years and has become one of the most important locations worldwide for researchers interested in data for labour market research. This article provides an overview of the RDC-IAB, including its data and access modes. The article presents two datasets in more detail: the Sample of Integrated Employment Biographies, a classic dataset, and the Linked Personnel Panel, a new dataset. Finally, this article provides insights into future infrastructure and data developments.
{"title":"German labour market data – Data provision and access for the international scientific community","authors":"Dana Müller, S. Wolter","doi":"10.1515/ger-2019-0127","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2019-0127","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Research Data Centre at the Institute for Employment Research (RDC-IAB) has been offering high-quality administrative and survey data on the German labour market for 15 years and has become one of the most important locations worldwide for researchers interested in data for labour market research. This article provides an overview of the RDC-IAB, including its data and access modes. The article presents two datasets in more detail: the Sample of Integrated Employment Biographies, a classic dataset, and the Linked Personnel Panel, a new dataset. Finally, this article provides insights into future infrastructure and data developments.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"55 1","pages":"313 - 333"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79322809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The development and conditions of the housing market are an important part of economic research, receiving growing attention also in Germany. The RWI-GEO-RED dataset covers data for the German residential housing market from 2007 onwards on 1 km² level and closes the gap for small-scale, nationwide and up-to-date housing data for Germany. The data has a large potential in analyzing the real estate market itself or to evaluate policy interventions through treatments on small regional levels. Prominent examples are the closing of nuclear power plants and the German rent control. The dataset can be used on its own but also has a large potential for combination with different data. The dataset is provided by the FDZ Ruhr at RWI that hosts small-scale regional data for Germany. The data can be obtained for scientific research as scientific use file.
{"title":"Real estate data for Germany (RWI-GEO-RED)","authors":"P. Breidenbach, S. Schaffner","doi":"10.1515/ger-2019-0126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2019-0126","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The development and conditions of the housing market are an important part of economic research, receiving growing attention also in Germany. The RWI-GEO-RED dataset covers data for the German residential housing market from 2007 onwards on 1 km² level and closes the gap for small-scale, nationwide and up-to-date housing data for Germany. The data has a large potential in analyzing the real estate market itself or to evaluate policy interventions through treatments on small regional levels. Prominent examples are the closing of nuclear power plants and the German rent control. The dataset can be used on its own but also has a large potential for combination with different data. The dataset is provided by the FDZ Ruhr at RWI that hosts small-scale regional data for Germany. The data can be obtained for scientific research as scientific use file.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"7 1","pages":"401 - 416"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74270801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-30DOI: 10.1101/2020.03.26.20044214
Jean Roch Donsimoni, René Glawion, B. Plachter, K. Wälde
Abstract We model the evolution of the number of individuals reported sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or despite infection but without symptoms, and deceased. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in Germany in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end date of the CoV-2 epidemic.
{"title":"Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany","authors":"Jean Roch Donsimoni, René Glawion, B. Plachter, K. Wälde","doi":"10.1101/2020.03.26.20044214","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044214","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We model the evolution of the number of individuals reported sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or despite infection but without symptoms, and deceased. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in Germany in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end date of the CoV-2 epidemic.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"24 1","pages":"181 - 216"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74660869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Germany reintroduced parity funding of the statutory health insurance scheme in January 2019 by lowering the contribution rates for employees and raising those for employers, leaving the total rate constant. This reduces the tax wedge between total labour costs and net wages. After a small demand impulse on impact, followed by a small downturn in the first two years after implementation, an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model indicates small positive long-run output and employment effects. However, the reduced tax wedge leads to lower public revenues. Aggregate macroeconomic and welfare effects will depend on how the government compensates for these revenue losses.
{"title":"Parity funding of health care contributions in Germany: A DSGE perspective","authors":"A. Enders, Dominik Groll, Nikolai Stähler","doi":"10.1515/ger-108-18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-108-18","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Germany reintroduced parity funding of the statutory health insurance scheme in January 2019 by lowering the contribution rates for employees and raising those for employers, leaving the total rate constant. This reduces the tax wedge between total labour costs and net wages. After a small demand impulse on impact, followed by a small downturn in the first two years after implementation, an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model indicates small positive long-run output and employment effects. However, the reduced tax wedge leads to lower public revenues. Aggregate macroeconomic and welfare effects will depend on how the government compensates for these revenue losses.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"36 1-3","pages":"217 - 233"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72603875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The paper contributes to the discussion on whether real interest rates below real growth rates can be taken as evidence of dynamic inefficiency so that some fiscal intervention may be called for. A seemingly killing objection points to land, a non-produced durable asset in positive supply, as a reason why dynamic inefficiency can be ruled out. If real interest rates were expected to be below real growth rates forever, the value of land would be unbounded, which is incompatible with equilibrium. The paper shows that this objection is not robust to the presence of an arbitrarily small per-unit-of-value transaction cost. The paper also specifies fiscal interventions that provide for Pareto improvements even though they involve a resource cost. For the debate about public debt policy, the land argument is a red herring because it is incompatible with the presence of fiat money and debt denominated in units of fiat money.
{"title":"Dynamic inefficiency and fiscal interventions in an economy with land and transaction costs","authors":"M. Hellwig","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3553843","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3553843","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper contributes to the discussion on whether real interest rates below real growth rates can be taken as evidence of dynamic inefficiency so that some fiscal intervention may be called for. A seemingly killing objection points to land, a non-produced durable asset in positive supply, as a reason why dynamic inefficiency can be ruled out. If real interest rates were expected to be below real growth rates forever, the value of land would be unbounded, which is incompatible with equilibrium. The paper shows that this objection is not robust to the presence of an arbitrarily small per-unit-of-value transaction cost. The paper also specifies fiscal interventions that provide for Pareto improvements even though they involve a resource cost. For the debate about public debt policy, the land argument is a red herring because it is incompatible with the presence of fiat money and debt denominated in units of fiat money.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"34 1","pages":"21 - 60"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74871844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract From 2003 to 2018, employment in Germany increased by 7.3 million, or by 19.3 % – growth not observed since unification. This “labor market miracle” was marked by a persistent and significant expansion of both part-time and low-wage jobs and a deterioration in pay for these jobs, while total hours hardly increased; overall wage growth returned only after 2011. These developments followed in the wake of the landmark Hartz reforms (2003–2005). A modified framework of Katz and Murphy (1992) predicts negative correlation of wages with both relative employment and participation across cells in the period following these reforms. In contrast, wage moderation alone should generate positive association of wages and participation. Our findings are most consistent with a persistent, positive labor supply shock at given working-age population in a cleared labor market. An alternative perspective of labor markets, the search and matching model, also points to the Hartz IV reforms as the central driver of the German labor market miracle.
{"title":"Reevaluating the German labor market miracle","authors":"M. Burda, S. Seele","doi":"10.1515/ger-054-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-054-19","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract From 2003 to 2018, employment in Germany increased by 7.3 million, or by 19.3 % – growth not observed since unification. This “labor market miracle” was marked by a persistent and significant expansion of both part-time and low-wage jobs and a deterioration in pay for these jobs, while total hours hardly increased; overall wage growth returned only after 2011. These developments followed in the wake of the landmark Hartz reforms (2003–2005). A modified framework of Katz and Murphy (1992) predicts negative correlation of wages with both relative employment and participation across cells in the period following these reforms. In contrast, wage moderation alone should generate positive association of wages and participation. Our findings are most consistent with a persistent, positive labor supply shock at given working-age population in a cleared labor market. An alternative perspective of labor markets, the search and matching model, also points to the Hartz IV reforms as the central driver of the German labor market miracle.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"60 1","pages":"139 - 179"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88484763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it to those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an independent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that both nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer forecast horizons, which seems to be driven by a false assessment of the decline in Germany’s trend growth and a systematic failure to correctly anticipate recessions. Furthermore, we show that the German government deviates from the projections of the Joint Economic Forecast, which in fact worsened the forecast accuracy. Finally, we find evidence that these deviations are driven by political motives.
{"title":"The macroeconomic projections of the German government: A comparison to an independent forecasting institution","authors":"R. Lehmann, Timo Wollmershäuser","doi":"10.1515/ger-2019-0047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/ger-2019-0047","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it to those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an independent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that both nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer forecast horizons, which seems to be driven by a false assessment of the decline in Germany’s trend growth and a systematic failure to correctly anticipate recessions. Furthermore, we show that the German government deviates from the projections of the Joint Economic Forecast, which in fact worsened the forecast accuracy. Finally, we find evidence that these deviations are driven by political motives.","PeriodicalId":46476,"journal":{"name":"German Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"235 - 270"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2020-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82911186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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