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Knowledge, attitudes and practices on household food waste: Bases for formulation of a recycling system 关于家庭食物废物的知识、态度和做法:制定回收系统的基础
IF 3.4 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2020.03.04
M. Limon, C. Villarino
This study assessed the knowledge, attitudes and practices on food waste of selected households in the northern province of the Philippines. The results of the assessment were used as bases for formulation of a recycling system. A total of one hundred rural households were selected using stratified equal allocation sampling technique. Data were collected through the use of researcher-made questionnaire with Cronbach’s Alpha at .82, and was supplemented by observations. Factor analysis, Pearson r, and point-biserial correlation were used to yield findings in the study. Results show that a number of factors discourage the respondents’ participation in the reduction and recycling of food waste, such as lack of facilities, insufficient training, and information dissemination. Household size (r=.199, p<0.05), monthly income (r=.282, p<0.01; r=-.217, p<0.05), and planning (r=-.243, p<0.05) influences the way the participants manage household food waste. On the other hand, age, educational attainment, and sex, do not significantly affect the way the household-participants manage food waste. One strategic and feasible solution is a compulsory food waste recycling system (FWRS) for private households to combat this pressing issue on food waste. This proposed framework is composed of four major moves that require the collaboration of various sectors and stakeholders in the community, and is expected to suggest valuable policy amendments including significant decrease in wastage of consumable agricultural products. Without doubt, the ongoing over generation of food waste is a serious global setback that needs to be urgently addressed.
这项研究评估了菲律宾北部省份选定家庭对食物浪费的知识、态度和做法。评估结果被用作制定回收系统的基础。采用分层等分配抽样技术,共选取100户农村家庭。数据是通过使用研究人员制作的问卷收集的,Cronbach’s Alpha为.82,并辅以观察。因子分析、Pearson r和点双序列相关性用于得出研究结果。结果显示,许多因素阻碍了受访者参与减少和回收食物垃圾,如缺乏设施、培训不足和信息传播。家庭规模(r=.199,p<0.05)、月收入(r=.282,p<0.01;r=-0.217,p<0.05)和计划(r=-0.243,p<0.05)影响参与者管理家庭食物浪费的方式。另一方面,年龄、教育程度和性别对家庭参与者管理食物浪费的方式没有显著影响。一个战略性和可行的解决方案是为私人家庭建立强制性食物垃圾回收系统,以解决这一紧迫的食物垃圾问题。这一拟议框架由四大举措组成,需要社会各部门和利益相关者的合作,预计将提出有价值的政策修正案,包括大幅减少消耗性农产品的浪费。毫无疑问,持续产生的食物浪费是一个严重的全球挫折,需要紧急解决。
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引用次数: 20
Estimation level of public welfare on the basis of methods of intellectual analysis 基于智力分析方法的公共福利水平估计
IF 3.4 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2020.03.06
S. Kozlovskyi, L. Nikolenko, O. Peresada, O. Pokhyliuk, O. Yatchuk, N. Bolgarova, O. Kulhanik
In the context of globalization of economic development processes, the issue of determining the level of public welfare of economic agents is particularly burning. The object of ehis study is the process of assessing welfare of the economic entities system. The subject of the study is the instrumental and mathematical aspects of modeling and measuring the public welfare. The aim of the work is to develop the mathematical model for measuring the welfare of Ukraine using methods of intellectual analysis, namely, the theory of fuzzy sets. The output of the study is a new approach to objective estimation of public welfare of the state. It is proposed to assess the level of public welfare of the state on the basis of a mathematical model developed on the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets. Input factors of the model are international indices and indicators, such as Index of Economic Freedom, Global Peace Index, Democracy Index, Corruption Perceptions Index, Human Development Index, Prosperity Index, Global Competitiveness Index as well as an indicator that reflects the characteristic property of the Ukrainian economy, namely the minimum living wage. Developed mathematical model for assessment of the level of public welfare of Ukraine and made a prediction of the indicator by 2024 on the basis of the above indices. The results of the study allowed us to establish that the level of public welfare (units) in Ukraine on a scale from 0 to 100 will be equal to 25, 17, 32, 26, and 28 in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024, accordingly.
在经济发展进程全球化的背景下,确定经济主体的公共福利水平的问题尤其紧迫。本研究的对象是经济实体体系的福利评估过程。本研究的主题是建模和衡量公共福利的工具和数学方面。这项工作的目的是利用智力分析的方法,即模糊集理论,开发衡量乌克兰福利的数学模型。这项研究的成果是客观估计国家公共福利的一种新方法。建议在基于模糊集理论开发的数学模型的基础上评估国家的公共福利水平。该模型的输入因素是国际指数和指标,如经济自由指数、全球和平指数、民主指数、腐败感知指数、人类发展指数、繁荣指数、全球竞争力指数,以及反映乌克兰经济特征的指标,即最低生活工资。开发了评估乌克兰公共福利水平的数学模型,并根据上述指标预测了到2024年的指标。研究结果使我们能够确定,乌克兰的公共福利(单位)水平在0到100之间,在2020年、2021年、2022年、2023年和2024年将分别等于25、17、32、26和28。
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引用次数: 5
Economy-wide energy efficiency using a comprehensive decomposition method. 采用综合分解法实现全经济节能。
IF 3.4 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2020.03.08
D. Setyawan
This study compares the energy intensity performance in Indonesia to other south-east Asia countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, The Philippines and Malaysia for the period from 1971 to 2016. For this goal, this research employs a multiplicative Log Mean Divisia Index II method and Spatial-Temporal Index Decomposition Analysis. The manufacturing sector and commercial sector played a key role in the regions economic structures that accounted for around 60% to 80% of the total economic output from 1971 to 2016. The contribution of the manufacturing sector increased quite significantly, from 8% in 1971 to a peak of around 31% in 2001, before it fell to 28% in 2016. On the other hand, the contribution of agriculture sector dropped from 49% in 1971 to approximately 17% in 2016. It is demonstrated in this research that the aggregate trend of the changes in energy intensity in these countries in the past forty-five years has been decreasing. For Indonesia, aggregate energy intensity rose steadily by an average of 3% per year from 1971 to 1999, more than doubling over this period, while from 1999 to 2001 energy intensity fell by 1% per annum on average, falling by 17% overall in 2016. Overall, in terms of structure and industry effects on aggregate energy intensity, all these countries showed a shift in industry value added to more energy-intensive industries which also offset by falling within-industry energy intensity. However, the analysis shows that both element of this trend was most pronounced in Indonesia.
这项研究比较了印度尼西亚与其他东南亚国家,如越南、泰国、新加坡、菲律宾和马来西亚在1971年至2016年期间的能源强度表现。为此,本研究采用了乘对数均值除数法和时空指数分解分析法。1971年至2016年,制造业和商业在区域经济结构中发挥了关键作用,占经济总量的60%至80%左右。制造业的贡献增长相当显著,从1971年的8%上升到2001年的31%左右的峰值,然后在2016年降至28%。另一方面,农业部门的贡献从1971年的49%下降到2016年的17%左右。本研究表明,在过去45年中,这些国家能源强度变化的总体趋势一直在下降。印度尼西亚的总能源强度从1971年到1999年平均每年稳定增长3%,在此期间增长了一倍多,而从1999年到2001年,能源强度平均每年下降1%,2016年总体下降17%。总而言之,就结构和工业对总能源强度的影响而言,所有这些国家都显示工业增加值向能源密集程度较高的工业转移,这也因工业内能源强度下降而抵消。然而,分析表明,这一趋势的两个因素在印度尼西亚最为明显。
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引用次数: 8
Susceptibility of Sardinella lemuru to emerging marine microplastic pollution 狐尾沙丁鱼对新出现的海洋微塑料污染的敏感性
IF 3.4 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2020.03.07
J. D. Palermo, Kevin L. Labrador, Jhunrey Follante, Altair B. Agmata, Ma. Josefa R. Pante, R. Rollon, L. David
Marine microplastics are emerging pollutants that impact across levels of marine food chain at a global scale. Its presence was determined on Sardinella lemuru, a commercial pelagic fish that are harvested generally in the Northern Mindanao, consumed locally, and exported worldwide as bottled or canned sardine products.  The stomach contents of 600 sardines were examined visually under a microscope, stained with Rose Bengal, and tested with hot needle technique to identify ingested microplastics. These anthropogenic particles were measured and physically classified into fibers, fragments, and films. Results of this study showed that 85% of S. lemuru were already contaminated with 3.74 ± 3.92 # of microplastics even before being processed into various sardine products. These microplastics ranged from 0.12 to 21.30 mm and 80 % were mostly < 2.5 mm size classes. The dominant microplastics were 97.94 % in the form of fibers while 1.52 % and 0.54 % were respectively classified into fragments and films. Method validation by isolating microplastics from spiked samples (n = 30) with three retrieval attempts showed 100% recovery efficiency. While results from Canonical Correspondence Analysis of ingested microplastic data had no relationship with the standard lengths of the sardine and the masses of ingested food materials at varying size classes, the total number of ingested microplastics from 2014 to 2016  were directly correlated (r2=0.91, p=0.003) with the human population at the landing sites  along the coastline of northern Mindanao.
海洋微塑料是新出现的污染物,在全球范围内影响海洋食物链的各个层面。它的存在是在北棉兰老岛捕捞的一种商业中上层鱼类Sardinella lemuru上确定的,在当地消费,并作为瓶装或罐装沙丁鱼产品出口到世界各地。在显微镜下对600条沙丁鱼的胃内容物进行了目视检查,用玫瑰孟加拉染色,并用热针技术进行了测试,以确定摄入的微塑料。对这些人为颗粒进行了测量,并将其物理分类为纤维、碎片和薄膜。这项研究的结果表明,85%的狐猴在被加工成各种沙丁鱼产品之前就已经被3.74±3.92#的微塑料污染。这些微塑料的尺寸在0.12至21.30毫米之间,80%的微塑料尺寸大多小于2.5毫米。主要的微塑料为97.94%的纤维形式,而1.52%和0.54%的微塑料分别分为碎片和薄膜。通过三次检索尝试从加标样品(n=30)中分离微塑料进行方法验证,显示出100%的回收率。虽然摄入微塑料数据的典型对应分析的结果与沙丁鱼的标准长度和不同尺寸类别的摄入食物材料的质量没有关系,2014年至2016年摄入的微塑料总量与棉兰老岛北部海岸线登陆点的人口直接相关(r2=0.91,p=0.003)。
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引用次数: 13
Integrating cellular automata Markov model to simulate future land use change of a tropical basin. 结合元胞自动机马尔可夫模型模拟热带盆地未来土地利用变化。
IF 3.4 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2020.03.09
M. Camara, N. Jamil, A. F. Abdullah, Rohasliney Hashim
Predicting land use change is an indispensable aspect in identifying the best development and management of land resources and their potential. This study used certified land-use maps of 1997, 2006, and 2015 combined with ancillary data such as road networks, water bodies and slopes, obtained from the Department of Agriculture and the Department of Surveying and Mapping in Malaysia, respectively. The prediction of future land use changes in the Selangor River basin in Malaysia was performed using the Cellular Automata Markov model. The transition probability matrices were computed using the land use conditions of the periods 1997-2006, 2006-2015, 1997-2015. The performance of the model was very good in its overall ability to simulate the actual land use map of 2015, with the index values of 0.92% and 0.97%, respectively for Kappa for no information and Kappa for grid-cell level location which indicated the reliability of the model to successfully simulate land use changes in 2024 and 2033. Based on the expected results, the future urban area will grow faster (33%) over the next two decades, leading to a decline in forest area that is expected to lose 8% of its total space during these periods. Agricultural land will increase to 4%, while water bodies will change slightly increasing to 1%, and other areas of land use will likely become reservoirs of water, topsoil or new green spaces shrinking at 30%. Given the importance of knowledge of future land use in addressing the problems of uncontrolled development on environmental quality, this study could be valuable for land use planners of the river basin largely covered by natural forest. The study however, suggests future research to integrate geospatial techniques with biophysical and socio-economic factors in simulating land use trends.
预测土地利用变化是确定土地资源及其潜力的最佳开发和管理的一个不可或缺的方面。这项研究使用了1997年、2006年和2015年的认证土地使用地图,并结合了分别从马来西亚农业部和测绘部获得的道路网络、水体和斜坡等辅助数据。采用元胞自动机马尔可夫模型对马来西亚雪兰莪河流域未来土地利用变化进行了预测。过渡概率矩阵采用1997-2006年、2006-2015年、1997-2015年期间的土地利用条件进行计算。该模型在模拟2015年实际土地利用图的总体能力方面表现良好,无信息Kappa和网格单元级位置Kappa的指标值分别为0.92%和0.97%,这表明该模型成功模拟2024年和2033年土地利用变化的可靠性。根据预期结果,未来20年,城市面积将增长更快(33%),导致森林面积下降,预计在此期间将失去8%的总空间。农业用地将增加到4%,而水体将略有变化,增加到1%,其他土地利用区域可能会成为蓄水池、表层土或新的绿地,萎缩30%。鉴于未来土地利用知识在解决环境质量不受控制的开发问题方面的重要性,这项研究对主要由天然林覆盖的流域的土地利用规划者来说可能很有价值。然而,这项研究表明,未来的研究应将地理空间技术与生物物理和社会经济因素相结合,以模拟土地利用趋势。
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引用次数: 13
The spatial and temporal pattern of COVID-19 and its effect on humans development in China 新冠肺炎时空格局及其对中国人类发展的影响
IF 3.4 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2019.06.SI.10
X. Xie, E. Naminse, S. Liu, Q. Yi
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been identified as the main cause of the outbreak of the respiratory disease in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China in December 2019. Since then, the epidemic has spread rapidly throughout China and many other countries in the world. This study, therefore, examines the spatiotemporal distribution of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 and its effect on human development in China, and suggested social and non-pharmaceutical preventive interventions to help curb the further spread of the disease. The public open data available from January to February 2020, from the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China and a medical knowledge sharing website were used, and spatial analysis was performed to visualize the spatial distribution pattern of COVID-19 in China. The results showed among others that COVID-19 had entered a dispersed spatial pattern, resulting in increased pressure to control the spread of the disease. In early March, there was a significant reduction in the existing number of cases, and the number of deaths also decreased. At the provincial level, the spatial distribution of the number of cumulative confirmed cases in China was divided into four patterns: Hubei was the initial core region; the eastern provinces adjacent to Hubei formed the second concentrated pattern; the western provinces adjacent to Hubei and the northeastern and southeastern provinces which were separated from Hubei by one province belonged to the third distribution pattern; while the rest of the provinces in the north, south and west showing sporadic distribution patterns formed the fourth. It has been estimated that about 80% of students’ online learning at all schools were not effective due to lack of access to reliable and uninterrupted internet services especially in the rural areas of China.
2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)已被确定为2019年12月中国湖北省武汉市呼吸道疾病爆发的主要原因。从那时起,疫情在中国和世界许多国家迅速蔓延。因此,本研究分析了中国新冠肺炎确诊病例的时空分布及其对人类发展的影响,并提出了社会和非药物预防措施,以帮助遏制疾病的进一步传播。利用中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会和某医学知识共享网站2020年1 - 2月公开开放数据,进行空间分析,可视化中国新冠肺炎的空间分布格局。结果显示,新冠肺炎已进入分散的空间格局,导致控制疾病传播的压力增加。3月初,现有病例数量大幅减少,死亡人数也有所减少。在省级层面上,中国累计确诊病例数的空间分布可划分为4种格局:湖北为初始核心区;与湖北相邻的东部省份形成第二集中格局;与湖北相邻的西部省份和与湖北相隔一省的东北、东南部省份属于第三种分布格局;而其余省份在北部、南部和西部呈现零星分布格局,形成了第四省。据估计,由于缺乏可靠和不间断的互联网服务,特别是在中国农村地区,所有学校约80%的学生在线学习无效。
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引用次数: 11
Statistical evaluation of selected air quality parameters influenced by COVID-19 lockdown 受新冠肺炎封锁影响的选定空气质量参数的统计评估
IF 3.4 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-04 DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2019.06.SI.08
M. H. Masum, S. Pal
Air pollution has become a serious concern for its potential health hazard, however, often got less attention in developing countries, like Bangladesh. It is expected that worldwide lockdown due to COVID-19 widespread cause reduction in environmental pollution in particularly the air pollution: however, such changes have been different in different places. In Chittagong, a city scale lockdown came in force on 26 March 2020, a week after when first three cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Bangladesh. This study aims to statistically evaluate the effects of COVID-19 lockdown (26 March to 26 April 2020) on selected air quality pollutants and air quality index s. The daily average concentrations of air pollutants PM10, PM2.5, NO2, SO2 and CO of Chittagong city during COVID-19 lockdown were statistically evaluated and were compared with dry season data averaging over previous 8 years (2012 to 2019). During lockdown, except NO2, all other pollutants studied showed statistically significant decreasing trend. During the COVID-19 shutdown notable reduction of 40%, 32% and 13% compared to the daily mean concentrations of these previous dry season were seen for PM2.5, PM10 and NO2, respectively. The improvement in air quality index value was found as 26% in comparison to the previous dry season due to less human activities in COVID-19 shutdown. The factor analysis showed that AQI in Chittagong city is largely influenced by PM10 and PM2.5 during COVID-19 shutdown. The lesson learnt in this forced measure of lockdown is not surprising and unexpected. It is rather thought provoking for the decision makers to tradeoff the tangible air quality benefits with ongoing development strategies’ that was often overlooked directly or indirectly.
空气污染已经成为人们严重关注的潜在健康危害,然而,在孟加拉国等发展中国家,空气污染往往没有得到足够的关注。预计新冠肺炎导致的全球封锁将导致环境污染,特别是空气污染的减少:然而,不同地方的这种变化有所不同。在吉大港,城市范围的封锁于2020年3月26日生效,一周前孟加拉国报告了前三例新冠肺炎病例。本研究旨在统计评估新冠肺炎封锁(2020年3月26日至4月26日)对选定空气质量污染物和空气质量指数的影响,对新冠肺炎封锁期间吉大港市的SO2和CO进行了统计评估,并与过去8年(2012年至2019年)的旱季平均数据进行了比较。在封锁期间,除NO2外,所研究的所有其他污染物都显示出统计学上显著的下降趋势。在新冠肺炎停工期间,PM2.5、PM10和NO2的日均浓度分别比前一个旱季的日均浓度显著下降了40%、32%和13%。与上一个旱季相比,由于新冠肺炎停工期间人类活动减少,空气质量指数值提高了26%。因子分析表明,在新冠肺炎关闭期间,吉大港市的空气质量指数在很大程度上受到PM10和PM2.5的影响。从这种强制封锁措施中吸取的教训并不令人惊讶和意外。决策者在有形的空气质量效益与经常被直接或间接忽视的持续发展战略之间进行权衡,这相当发人深省。
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引用次数: 44
Impact of COVID-19 large scale restriction on environment and economy in Indonesia 新冠肺炎大规模限制对印度尼西亚环境和经济的影响
IF 3.4 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-02 DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2019.06.SI.07
R. Caraka, Youngjo Lee, R. Kurniawan, R. Herliansyah, P. A. Kaban, B. I. Nasution, Prana Ugiana Gio, R. Chen, T. Toharudin, B. Pardamean
COVID-19 has a severe and widespread impact, especially in Indonesia COVID-19 was first reported in Indonesia on March 03, 2020 then rapidly spread to all 34 provinces by April 09, 2020 Since then, COVID-19 is declared a state of national disaster and health emergency This research analyzes the difference of CO, HCHO, NO2, and SO2 density in Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, and South Sulawesi before and during the pandemic Also, this study assesses the effect of large scale restrictions on the economic growth during COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia In a nutshell, the results on Wilcoxon and Fisher test by significance level alpha=5% as well as odds ratio showed that there are significant differences of CO density in all regions with highest odds ratio in East Java (OR=9 07), significant differences of HCHO density in DKI Jakarta, East Java, and South Sulawesi There are significant differences of NO2 density before and during public activities limitation in DKI Jakarta, West Java, East Java, and South Sulawesi However, the results show that there are no significant differences of SO2 density in all regions In addition, this research shows that there are significant differences of retail, grocery and pharmacy, and residental mobility before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia This research also shows that during the COVID-19 pandemic there are severe economic losses, industry, companies, and real disruptions are severe for all levels of life due to large scale restrictions (C) 2020 GJESM All rights reserved
新冠肺炎具有严重而广泛的影响,尤其是在印度尼西亚。新冠肺炎于2020年3月3日在印度尼西亚首次报告,随后于2020年4月9日迅速蔓延至所有34个省。自那以后,新冠肺炎被宣布为国家灾害和卫生紧急状态,此外,本研究评估了新冠肺炎大流行期间大规模限制对印度尼西亚经济增长的影响。简言之,根据显著性水平α=5%和比值比进行的Wilcoxon和Fisher检验结果表明,东爪哇岛比值比最高的所有地区的CO密度都存在显著差异(OR=907),和南苏拉威西。DKI雅加达、西爪哇、东爪哇和南苏拉韦西在公共活动限制前和限制期间的NO2密度存在显著差异。然而,结果表明,所有地区的SO2密度都没有显著差异。此外,本研究表明,零售、杂货和药房存在显著差异,在印度尼西亚新冠肺炎大流行之前和期间,居民的流动性这项研究还表明,在新冠肺炎大流行期间,由于大规模的限制,工业、公司和所有生活水平都受到了严重的经济损失(C)2020 GJESM保留所有权利
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引用次数: 130
The system dynamic model of the labor migrant policy in economic growth affected by COVID-19 新冠肺炎疫情影响下经济增长中劳动力流动政策的系统动态模型
IF 3.4 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2019.06.SI.09
S. Kozlovskyi, D. Bilenko, M. Kuzheliev, R. Lavrov, Volodymyr Kozlovskyi, Hennadii Mazur, A. Taranych
At the end of 2019, the new virus called coronavirus disease (Covid-19) spread widely from China all over the world. In March 2020 the World Health Organization declared a new virus outbreak as "a global pandemic", and recommended social distancing and quarantine. Most countries in Europe have been quarantined. The social aspect of this issue is complicated by the fact that Europe nowadays hosts 82 million international migrants. If migrant workers leave the host country, it reduces the Covid-19 spread. Nevertheless, if migrant workers do not return, it will worsen the situation with the economic crisis. The subject of the study is the instrumental and mathematical aspects of impact simulation of labor migrants' policy on the economic growth of the host country affected by COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the work is to develop the system dynamics model for assessing labor migrants' policy impact on the economic growth of the host country during COVID-19 pandemic. It examined through hypotheses of different scenarios of labor migrants policy impact on the host country economic growth in Covid-19 pandemic. The proposed model combines epidemiological and the economic growth models and relies upon real statistical data. The analysis was carried out in four European countries. The results of the study enabled to state that without migrant workers the gross domestic product may fall to 43% in Italy, 45% in Netherlands, 37% in Spain and 200% in Switzerland in 2020.
2019年底,新型冠状病毒(Covid-19)从中国广泛传播到世界各地。2020年3月,世界卫生组织宣布一种新的病毒爆发为“全球大流行”,并建议保持社交距离和隔离。大多数欧洲国家已经被隔离。这个问题的社会方面由于欧洲目前收容了8200万国际移民这一事实而变得复杂。如果移徙工人离开东道国,就会减少Covid-19的传播。然而,如果农民工不回国,将使经济危机的情况恶化。本研究的主题是受COVID-19大流行影响的劳务移民政策对东道国经济增长影响模拟的工具和数学方面。这项工作的目的是建立系统动力学模型,以评估2019冠状病毒病大流行期间劳动力移民对东道国经济增长的政策影响。通过对不同情景的假设,研究了Covid-19大流行期间劳动力移民政策对东道国经济增长的影响。该模型结合了流行病学模型和经济增长模型,并依赖于真实的统计数据。这项分析是在四个欧洲国家进行的。研究结果表明,到2020年,如果没有移民工人,意大利的国内生产总值(gdp)可能会下降到43%,荷兰为45%,西班牙为37%,瑞士为200%。
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引用次数: 13
Simulation and prediction of land use and land cover change using GIS, remote sensing and CA-Markov model. 利用GIS、遥感和CA马尔可夫模型模拟和预测土地利用和土地覆盖变化。
IF 3.4 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.22034/GJESM.2020.02.07
H. Khawaldah, Ibrahim Farhan, N. Alzboun
This study analyzes the characteristics of land use/land cover change in Jordan’s Irbid governorate, 1984–2018, and predicts future land use/land cover for 2030 and 2050 using a cellular automata-Markov model. The results inform planners and decision makers of past and current spatial dynamics of land use/land cover change and predicted urban expansion, for a better understanding and successful planning. Satellite images of Landsat 5-thematic mapper and Landsat 8 operational land imager for the years 1984, 1994, 2004, 2015 and 2018 were used to explore the characteristics of land use/land cover for this study. The results indicate that the built-up area expanded by 386.9% during the study period and predict further expansion by 19.5% and 64.6% from 2015 to 2030 and 2050 respectively. The areas around the central and eastern parts of the governorate are predicted to have significant expansion of the built-up area by these dates, which should be taken into consideration in future plans. Land use/land cover change and urban expansion in Irbid are primarily caused by the high rate of population growth rate as a direct result of receiving large numbers of immigrants from Syria and Palestine in addition to the natural increase of population and other socio-economic changes.
本研究分析了约旦伊尔比德省1984年至2018年的土地利用/土地覆盖变化特征,并使用细胞自动机马尔可夫模型预测了2030年和2050年的未来土地利用/陆地覆盖。研究结果为规划者和决策者提供了土地利用/土地覆盖变化的过去和当前空间动态以及预测的城市扩张,以更好地理解和成功规划。本研究使用1984年、1994年、2004年、2015年和2018年陆地卫星5号专题测绘仪和陆地卫星8号操作陆地成像仪的卫星图像来探索土地利用/土地覆盖的特征。结果表明,在研究期间,建成区面积扩大了386.9%,并预测2015年至2030年和2050年将分别扩大19.5%和64.6%。预计到这些日期,该省中部和东部周围地区的建成区将大幅扩大,这一点应在未来的计划中予以考虑。Irbid的土地利用/土地覆盖变化和城市扩张主要是由于人口增长率高,这是接收大量来自叙利亚和巴勒斯坦的移民的直接结果,此外还有人口的自然增长和其他社会经济变化。
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引用次数: 30
期刊
GLOBAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT-GJESM
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