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System dynamics-based prediction of North Korean port volumes 基于系统动力学的朝鲜港口吞吐量预测
IF 3.1 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.10.001
Tae-Won Chung, Jun-Woo Jeon

The purpose of this study is to predict North Korea's cargo volume per port, per item, using system dynamics. The products of which expected volumes are predicted include iron ore, oil, grain, cement, sand, coal, other ores, miscellaneous goods, and containers. We further distribute the forecasted value of each item among the different North Korean ports based on inputs obtained during expert interviews. The selected ports are the nine trading ports of North Korea, namely, Najin, Chongjin, Nampo, Rajin-Seonbong, Songnim, Haeju, Hungnam, Wonsan, and Dancheon. Herein, the authors assume and predict the complete economic reopening of North Korea. Based on the forecast outcomes, Nampo Port handles the largest cargo volume among North Korean ports, which is expected to amount to 113,217 thousand tons by 2050. Chongjin Port is revealed as the second largest in terms of throughput, and is predicted to handle 47,525 thousand tons of cargo by 2050. On the same terms, Najin Port is deemed the third largest and is predicted to handle 37,816 thousand tons of cargo by 2050. Containers (72,454 thousand tons) and cement (45,897 thousand tons) rank first and second among the items of which the largest volumes are expected to be handled by North Korean ports, by 2050. These findings provide insight into North Korean port development potential and indicate prospects for inter-Korean cooperation, following North Korea’s economic reopening.

本研究的目的是利用系统动力学预测朝鲜每个港口、每个项目的货运量。预计产量的产品包括铁矿石、石油、粮食、水泥、沙子、煤炭、其他矿石、杂项货物和集装箱。根据专家访谈获得的输入,我们进一步将每个项目的预测值分配到不同的朝鲜港口。被选定的港口是罗津、清津、南浦、罗津-善峰、松林、海州、兴南、元山、端川等9个北韩贸易港口。在此,作者假设并预测了朝鲜经济的全面重启。根据预测结果,到2050年,南浦港的货物吞吐量将达到11.317万吨,是北韩所有港口中最大的。清津港的吞吐量排在第二位,预计到2050年货物吞吐量将达到4752.5万吨。罗津港被认为是第三大港口,预计到2050年将处理3781.6万吨货物。到2050年,集装箱(7245.4万吨)和水泥(4589.7万吨)在北韩港口的最大吞吐量中分别排在第一位和第二位。这些发现有助于深入了解朝鲜港口的发展潜力,并预示着朝鲜经济重新开放后朝韩合作的前景。
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引用次数: 4
Evaluating the role of dry ports in the port-hinterland settings: Conceptual framework and the case of Vietnam 评价陆港在港口腹地环境中的作用:概念框架和越南的案例
IF 3.1 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.09.001
Lam Canh Nguyen , Vinh V. Thai , Duc Minh Nguyen , Mai Dong Tran

Analyzing the dry ports’ impacts on different stakeholders is imperative for assessing the feasibility of a dry port project and promoting the collaboration among such parties to optimize the supply chain between inland customers and seaports. This paper aims at developing a conceptual framework to evaluate the role of dry ports from multi-criteria and multi-stakeholder approaches. Based on an extensive literature review, a hierarchy of evaluation criteria was developed from the perspectives of three main stakeholder groups, i.e. dry port users, seaport-based players and community. Interviews were then carried out to verify the face validity of the initially proposed framework given the context of Vietnam, followed by a survey assessing the dry port’s contributions. The findings highlight the major role of dry port users in driving the success of a dry port, while also recognizes significant roles of seaport-based players and the community. The study provides insights into how different stakeholder groups might value the contribution of dry ports and demonstrates that dry port characteristics have apparent impacts on their role as perceived by each group. Finally, this research points out the current issues of the Vietnamese dry port system and provides recommendations and managerial implications accordingly.

分析陆港对不同利益相关者的影响对于评估陆港项目的可行性和促进各方之间的合作以优化内陆客户和海港之间的供应链至关重要。本文旨在建立一个概念框架,从多标准和多利益相关者的方法来评估干港的作用。基于广泛的文献综述,从三个主要利益相关者群体(即陆港用户、海港参与者和社区)的角度制定了评估标准的层次结构。然后进行了访谈,以验证在越南背景下最初提出的框架的表面有效性,随后进行了一项评估干港贡献的调查。研究结果强调了干港用户在推动干港成功方面的主要作用,同时也认识到海港参与者和社区的重要作用。该研究提供了不同利益相关者群体如何评估干港贡献的见解,并证明了干港特征对每个群体所感知的他们的角色有明显的影响。最后,本研究指出了越南干港体系目前存在的问题,并提出了相应的建议和管理启示。
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引用次数: 11
Analyzing the evolution of concentration within containerized transport chains through a circuitist approach: The role of innovations in accelerating the circuits of liner and container terminal operators 通过电路学方法分析集装箱运输链内集中度的演变:创新在加速班轮和集装箱码头运营商电路中的作用
IF 3.1 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.09.002
Theodore Styliadis, Constantinos Chlomoudis

Within the context of a geographically integrated capitalist economy, containerized transport networks act as the cogwheel of the global market, undertaking the circulation of commodities. While transport chains become the media of industrial circulation facilitating the augmented reproduction of industrial capital, transport is in itself a distinct sphere of investment, which ultimately opts to ensure its self-expansion. By employing Marx’s circuit formula MCM, we investigate how the pace of reproduction of transport capital affects the evolution of concentration process in containerized supply chains within the context of contemporary capitalist development. Additionally, by adjusting the circuit for the case of liner shipping and terminal operators, the impact of transport innovations in the attached media functions of transport actors and hence in the velocity of their circuits, is examined. Analysis indicates that innovations, act as catalysts in accelerating the circuits of transport actors, reinforcing the concentration process within the sphere of circulation.

在地理一体化的资本主义经济背景下,集装箱运输网络充当着全球市场的齿轮,承担着商品的流通。虽然运输链成为产业流通的媒介,促进了产业资本的扩大再生产,但运输本身就是一个独特的投资领域,最终选择确保其自我扩张。通过运用马克思的循环公式M−C−M’,我们研究了在当代资本主义发展的背景下,运输资本的再生产速度如何影响集装箱供应链集中过程的演变。此外,通过调整班轮运输和码头运营商的电路,研究了运输创新对运输参与者的附加媒体功能的影响,从而对其电路的速度的影响。分析表明,创新在加速运输参与者的循环中起着催化剂的作用,加强了循环领域内的集中过程。
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引用次数: 4
An efficiency analysis of container terminals in Southern Vietnam using DEA dynamic efficiency evaluation 基于DEA动态效率评价的越南南部集装箱码头效率分析
IF 3.1 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.09.003
Thi Le Hang Nguyen, Sung-Hoon Park, Yuna Kim, Gi-Tae Yeo

Southern Vietnam is a key economic region for the country, producing 45% of Vietnam’s GDP, despite only accounting for 9% of the country’s total landmass and 21% of its population. Specifically, the Southern Region dominates seaport-based container transportation, contributing 55% of Vietnam’s total vessel calls and 74% of its total container cargo volume, with the North and Central regions trailing far behind. However, despite the sector’s importance, the efficiency of container terminals in Southern Vietnam has not been evaluated by the literature in recent years. This study fills this research gap by using data envelopment analysis (DEA) to evaluate the efficiency of major container terminals in Southern Vietnam. The results of the DEA Malmquist analysis show that most container terminals demonstrated productivity growth between 2017 and 2019, and that this mainly derived from advancements in catch-up operational efficiency and in technological innovation. Moreover, the DEA slack-based measure and DEA undesirable output analyses demonstrate that three container terminals (Cai Mep International Terminal, Tan Cang Cat Lai, and Tan Cang–Cai Mep International Terminal) achieved the maximum efficiency level when both applying and not applying the undesirable output variable. However, other container terminals displayed severe operational inefficiency, with these terminals’ efficiency values decreasing by between 9% and 40% when considering undesirable outputs. The ineffective terminals can therefore be categorized as consuming excessive inputs and lacking in the production of desirable outputs or creating large amounts of undesirable outputs. Therefore, using these results, port authorities and policymakers should be better placed to develop appropriate strategies for managing container terminals in Southern Vietnam.

越南南部是该国的一个重要经济区域,尽管仅占该国总面积的9%和人口的21%,但其GDP占越南GDP的45%。具体而言,南部地区主导着以海港为基础的集装箱运输,占越南船舶总停靠量的55%和集装箱总货运量的74%,而北部和中部地区则远远落后。然而,尽管该部门的重要性,在越南南部集装箱码头的效率近年来还没有通过文献进行评估。本研究利用数据包络分析(DEA)来评估越南南部主要集装箱码头的效率,填补了这一研究空白。DEA Malmquist的分析结果显示,2017年至2019年期间,大多数集装箱码头的生产率都有所增长,这主要得益于追赶运营效率和技术创新的进步。此外,基于DEA松弛测度和DEA不期望产出分析表明,在施加和不施加不期望产出变量的情况下,三个集装箱码头(蔡梅国际码头、谭仓卡特莱码头和谭仓蔡梅国际码头)的效率水平最大。然而,其他集装箱码头表现出严重的运营效率低下,考虑到不良产出,这些码头的效率值下降了9%至40%。因此,无效终端可被归类为消耗过多投入而缺乏理想产出的生产或创造大量不理想产出。因此,利用这些结果,港口当局和政策制定者应该更好地制定适当的战略来管理越南南部的集装箱码头。
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引用次数: 7
Important Factors in the Development of Biopharmaceutical Logistics Centers 生物制药物流中心发展的重要因素
IF 3.1 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.07.003
Hyunjae Jung , Junwoo Jeon , Hyukjun Choi

Human life is at the center of the fourth industrial revolution in the pharmaceutical trade. One of the major factors driving the growth of pharmaceuticals is the rapid growth of biopharmaceuticals. The global biopharmaceutical market is showing steady growth, and the current share of 20% of the drug market is expected to expand to 70% within the next 20 years. The domestic biopharmaceutical market has also turned into a trade surplus due to an increase of exports in 2017. Currently, there are no studies on the establishment of biopharmaceutical distribution centers. Therefore, in this study, it was assumed that the factors needed for the establishment of existing logistics centers and biopharmaceutical logistics centers would differ. In this study, three factors were extracted from a fuzzy AHP analysis – facility, location, and cost. In addition, 11 detailed factors were indicated, and their importance depended on temperature management devices, convenience of transportation, and the establishment of a logistics information system. Thus, facilities are more important in biopharmaceutical logistics centers than general logistics center.

在医药贸易中,人类的生命处于第四次工业革命的中心。推动药品增长的主要因素之一是生物制药的快速增长。全球生物医药市场呈现稳定增长态势,预计在未来20年内,生物医药市场份额将从目前的20%扩大到70%。2017年,国内生物制药市场也因出口增加而转为贸易顺差。目前还没有建立生物医药配送中心的研究。因此,在本研究中,我们假设现有物流中心和生物制药物流中心建立所需的因素是不同的。在本研究中,从模糊层次分析法中提取三个因素-设施,位置和成本。此外,还指出了11个详细的因素,它们的重要性取决于温度管理设备、运输的便利性和物流信息系统的建立。因此,生物制药物流中心的设施比一般物流中心更为重要。
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引用次数: 1
Cybersecurity knowledge and skills for port facility security officers of international seaports: Perspectives of IT and security personnel 国际海港港口设施保安人员的网络安全知识和技能:IT和安全人员的视角
IF 3.1 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.10.002
Chalermpong Senarak

Cyberattacks on worldwide port facilities have highlighted the urgent need for port facility security officers (PFSOs) to upgrade their cybersecurity knowledge and skills. This study used the survey data from all international container ports in Thailand and analyzed the results from two perspectives, i.e., IT and security officers. Based on 73 responses, cybersecurity knowledge and skill would become essential for PFSOs than ever before because the port digitalization and automation would shape the PFSOs career to a technically-oriented specialist rather than a multi-skilled generalist. Furthermore, the responsibilities of PFSOs would extend to cover cyber risk management, which enables them to prevent the digital port facilities from emerging cyber threats. Therefore, they should learn how to incorporate the existing risk management process with cyber risk management and cybersecurity knowledge because these would be the foundation for PFSOs to practice cybersecurity skills. At the end of the learning process, PFSOs could also gain cybersecurity competence once they have mature knowledge and skill, which would be the vital element of port security hygiene.

针对全球港口设施的网络攻击凸显了港口设施安全官员(pfso)升级其网络安全知识和技能的迫切需要。本研究使用了泰国所有国际集装箱港口的调查数据,并从IT和安全官员两个角度分析结果。根据73项回应,网络安全知识和技能将比以往任何时候都更重要,因为港口数字化和自动化将使pfso的职业发展成为技术导向的专家,而不是多技能的通才。此外,pfso的职责将扩展到网络风险管理,这使他们能够防止数字港口设施受到新出现的网络威胁。因此,他们应该学习如何将现有的风险管理流程与网络风险管理和网络安全知识相结合,因为这些将是pfso实践网络安全技能的基础。在学习过程结束时,pfso也可以获得网络安全能力,一旦他们拥有成熟的知识和技能,这将是港口安全卫生的重要因素。
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引用次数: 6
Financial analysis effect on management performance in the Korean logistics industry 财务分析对韩国物流业经营绩效的影响
IF 3.1 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.06.003
Seung Wook Jang, Woo Chul Ahn

This study aims to contribute to the stable growth of the logistics industry by analyzing the differences in the financial structures within the Korean logistics industry and the impact of these financial structures on management performance.

This result shows that there are differences in financial factors that affect return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) by business types in the logistics industry, they require more management improvement efforts to enhance the soundness of their financial structure. Therefore, they need to recognize differences in major financial factors that affect performance according to the type of business it owns and push forward pre-emptive measures such as management efficiency and improvement of profits accordingly and the diversification of its continuous business portfolio.

本研究旨在通过分析韩国物流业内部财务结构的差异以及这些财务结构对管理绩效的影响,为物流业的稳定增长做出贡献。这一结果表明,物流业不同业务类型影响资产收益率(ROA)和净资产收益率(ROE)的财务因素存在差异,需要加大管理改进力度以增强其财务结构的稳健性。因此,他们需要根据自己的业务类型,认识到影响业绩的主要财务因素的差异,并相应地采取管理效率和利润的提高以及持续业务组合的多元化等先发制人的措施。
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引用次数: 10
Keyword network analysis: Uncovering research trends on the Northern Sea Route 关键词网络分析:揭示北海航线研究趋势
IF 3.1 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.06.001
Thi Le Hang Nguyen, Sung-Hoon Park, Gi-Tae Yeo

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) has gradually become viable because of sea ice melting in the Artic. There is a large and diverse body of research on the NSR, investigating aspects such as weather, the environment, legal security, infrastructure and technologies, shipping transportation, and economic issues. However, there has been scant research carried out from a macroscopic perspective on NSR research trends. The purpose of this study is to analyze the trends in research about the NSR by applying a social network analysis. By collecting keywords from academic papers on the NSR, a network of keywords and two indexes (degree centrality and betweenness centrality) are accessed and analyzed. The results show that the trends can be divided into three periods (1899–1999, 2000–2009, 2010–2019). Throughout all periods, the issue of climate change causing the ice in the Arctic to melt has been a consideration for many scholars. In addition, “national security” and “oil exploitation” were important keywords in the first period. In the second period (2000–2010), in addition to words related to the environment, such as “sea ice” and “climate change,” the term “ocean transport” appears and becomes a central topic of research. This is because when the NSR has a non-icy period, ocean transport through the NSR can be deployed. The research trends become obvious in the third period (2011–2019) with two primary research areas: climate change and shipping area, which accurately measure the benefit and cost. This paper shows the importance of the NSR, reviews the main research topics involving the NSR, and informs researchers and authorities as to the trends in academic research on the NSR.

由于北极海冰的融化,北方航道(NSR)逐渐变得可行。关于“北方航道”的研究范围广泛而多样,涉及天气、环境、法律安全、基础设施和技术、航运运输和经济问题等方面。然而,从宏观角度对噪音感应强的研究趋势进行的研究却很少。本研究的目的是运用社会网络分析的方法,来分析“强听音”的研究趋势。通过收集NSR学术论文中的关键词,访问并分析了一个关键词网络和两个指标(度中心性和中间中心性)。结果表明,该趋势可分为1899-1999年、2000-2009年、2010-2019年三个时期。在所有时期,气候变化导致北极冰融化的问题一直是许多学者考虑的问题。此外,“国家安全”和“石油开采”是第一阶段的重要关键词。在第二个时期(2000-2010年),除了“海冰”和“气候变化”等与环境相关的词汇外,“海洋运输”一词出现并成为研究的中心主题。这是因为当“噪音感应强的海域”处于非冰期时,可以部署通过“噪音感应强的海域”的海洋运输。第三阶段(2011-2019年)研究趋势明显,主要研究两个领域:气候变化和航运面积,准确衡量了收益和成本。本文阐述了“声音感应强的地方”的重要性,综述了涉及“声音感应强的地方”的主要研究课题,并向研究人员和权威人士介绍了“声音感应强的地方”的学术研究趋势。
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引用次数: 4
Forecasting oil tanker shipping market in crisis periods: Exponential smoothing model application 危机时期油轮运输市场预测:指数平滑模型的应用
IF 3.1 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.06.002
George Moiseev

This paper fills the gap in the literature of applying an exponential smoothing model in the oil shipping market forecasting. The author refines the adaptive combined model with B-criterion based on Brown's model with modification by Trigg and Leach. Forecasting the values of the average time-charter equivalent of a tanker along 6 different routes of oil transportation in the world ocean during the crisis period 2015–2019. The accuracy of the proposed method is superior to naive, autoregression methods and machine learning models in all used error metrics. The obtained accuracy in 71% of cases is available for commercial use by operators and charterers of the tanker fleet.

本文填补了将指数平滑模型应用于油运市场预测的文献空白。作者在Brown模型的基础上,经过Trigg和Leach的修正,改进了带有b准则的自适应组合模型。预测2015-2019年危机期间世界海洋6条不同石油运输路线上一艘油轮的平均定期租船当量的价值。在所有使用的误差度量中,所提出的方法的准确性优于朴素方法,自回归方法和机器学习模型。在71%的情况下,所获得的准确性可用于油轮船队的运营商和承租人的商业用途。
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引用次数: 10
Multi-objective optimization of petroleum product logistics in Eastern Indonesia region 印尼东部地区成品油物流的多目标优化
IF 3.1 Q2 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2021.05.003
Farhan Surury , Ahmad Syauqi , Widodo Wahyu Purwanto

The transportation sector is one of the largest fuel consumers and pollutant contributors worldwide. The International Maritime Organization predicts that the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation will be increasing significantly until 2050, driven by the growth in global maritime trade. Managing logistics distribution routes is considered a possible approach for controlling GHG emissions. This study aims to implement a green logistics concept in the logistics distribution of petroleum products—gasoline, kerosene, and diesel—in eastern Indonesia, whose supply sources are refineries located in Balikpapan and Kasim. A multi-objective approach is used to implement the green logistics concept. Multi-objective optimization is conducted using the AIMMS software to optimize a logistics system consisting of a multi-depot, multi-product, and heterogeneous fleet. The optimization is performed to determine the best logistics route and the amount of products delivered using certain types of fleets to minimize transportation cost and GHG emissions using constant speed. In addition, this study also investigates the effect of variable speed on cost and CO2 emissions. For the constant speed case, the distribution routes obtained for the minimizing cost scenario tends to maximize the utilization of transit terminals while in the minimizing emissions scenario tends to deliver directly to the distribution centers, so the route decision in multi-objective optimization scenario is combination of the two. The multi-objective optimization results an 11% cost reduction and a 17% GHG emission reduction compared with the current values. The comparison between constant and variable speed reveals that the variable speed is preferred to constant speed as it gives lower emissions with slight changes in cost.

交通运输部门是世界上最大的燃料消费者和污染物贡献者之一。国际海事组织预测,在全球海上贸易增长的推动下,到2050年,交通运输产生的温室气体(GHG)排放量将显著增加。管理物流配送路线被认为是控制温室气体排放的一种可能方法。本研究的目的是在印尼东部石油产品(汽油、煤油和柴油)的物流配送中实施绿色物流概念,这些石油产品的供应来源是位于巴厘巴潘和卡西姆的炼油厂。采用多目标方法来实施绿色物流概念。利用AIMMS软件对多仓库、多产品、异构车队组成的物流系统进行多目标优化。执行优化以确定最佳物流路线和使用特定类型的车队交付的产品数量,以最大限度地降低运输成本和使用恒定速度的温室气体排放。此外,本研究亦探讨变速对成本及二氧化碳排放的影响。在等速情况下,成本最小情景下的配送路线倾向于最大限度地利用中转码头,而排放最小情景下的配送路线倾向于直接送达配送中心,因此多目标优化情景下的配送路线决策是两者的结合。多目标优化结果表明,与目前的价值相比,成本降低了11%,温室气体排放量减少了17%。恒速和变速的比较表明,变速比恒速更受欢迎,因为它的排放更低,成本变化很小。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics
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