Abstract This article provides an interim assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Estimates suggest a median output loss of approximately 6.5% in 2020, a gap that is expected to narrow to around 4% of the pre‐pandemic trend by the end of 2021. There is, however, a high dispersion of economic losses across economies, reflecting varying exposures to the pandemic and societies' responses. High‐frequency indicators and epidemiological models provide some insight into the interactions between the pandemic evolution and societies' strategies for combating it, including the role of vaccination. The article draws lessons from experiences thus far and discusses challenges ahead.
{"title":"Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review*","authors":"Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12372","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article provides an interim assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the COVID‐19 pandemic. Estimates suggest a median output loss of approximately 6.5% in 2020, a gap that is expected to narrow to around 4% of the pre‐pandemic trend by the end of 2021. There is, however, a high dispersion of economic losses across economies, reflecting varying exposures to the pandemic and societies' responses. High‐frequency indicators and epidemiological models provide some insight into the interactions between the pandemic evolution and societies' strategies for combating it, including the role of vaccination. The article draws lessons from experiences thus far and discusses challenges ahead.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"439 - 458"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/1468-0106.12372","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48471325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Immigration and inequality: Analysis of Mainland Chinese spouses during the early stages of their time in Taiwan","authors":"Wehn‐Jyuan Tsai","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12373","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12373","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/1468-0106.12373","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42696556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract As the COVID‐19 pandemic spread across the world, governments introduced significant containment measures to control the spread of the virus. In this paper, we leverage inputs from IMF desk economists to construct a novel narrative index of containment measures for 11 countries in the Asia‐Pacific region. A key innovation in our index is that it distinguishes between economic sectors (services, industry, retail), thus providing a more granular view of restrictions related to economic activity. Using this index, along with other high‐frequency data, we find that containment measures have been successful in reducing the spread of the virus (though with some heterogeneity) but have also been associated with large short‐term economic costs. Furthermore, exploiting the granularity of our index, we find that differences in strategies across countries regarding the closing of the industrial sector have mattered: imposing less severe restrictions on industry has been associated with lower economic costs without leading to worse health outcomes, possibly reflecting the less contact intensive nature of industrial activity.
{"title":"The effects of COVID‐19 containment measures on the Asia‐Pacific region","authors":"D. Furceri, Siddharth Kothari, Longmei Zhang","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12369","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As the COVID‐19 pandemic spread across the world, governments introduced significant containment measures to control the spread of the virus. In this paper, we leverage inputs from IMF desk economists to construct a novel narrative index of containment measures for 11 countries in the Asia‐Pacific region. A key innovation in our index is that it distinguishes between economic sectors (services, industry, retail), thus providing a more granular view of restrictions related to economic activity. Using this index, along with other high‐frequency data, we find that containment measures have been successful in reducing the spread of the virus (though with some heterogeneity) but have also been associated with large short‐term economic costs. Furthermore, exploiting the granularity of our index, we find that differences in strategies across countries regarding the closing of the industrial sector have mattered: imposing less severe restrictions on industry has been associated with lower economic costs without leading to worse health outcomes, possibly reflecting the less contact intensive nature of industrial activity.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"469 - 497"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/1468-0106.12369","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47308037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper empirically examines the reaction of global financial markets across 38 economies to the COVID‐19 outbreak, with special focus on the dynamics of capital flows across 14 emerging market economies. The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to COVID‐19 is also tested. Using daily data over the period January 4, 2010 to August 31, 2020, and controlling for a host of domestic and global macroeconomic and financial factors, we use a fixed effects panel approach and a structural VAR framework to show that emerging markets have been more heavily affected than advanced economies. In particular, emerging economies in Asia and Europe have experienced the sharpest impacts on stock, bond and exchange rates due to COVID‐19, as well as abrupt and substantial capital outflows. Quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus packages mainly helped to boost stock prices, notably for advanced and emerging economies in Asia. Our findings also highlight the role that global factors and developments in the world's leading financial centers have on financial conditions in EMEs. Importantly, the impact of COVID‐19 related quantitative easing measures by central banks in advanced countries extended to EMEs, with significant positive spillovers to EME stock markets in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Going forward, while the ultimate resolution of COVID‐19 may be expected to lead to a market correction as uncertainty declines, our impulse response analysis suggests that there may be persistent effects on bond markets in emerging Europe and on EME capital flows.
{"title":"COVID‐19, asset markets and capital flows","authors":"J. Beirne, Nuobu Renzhi, E. Sugandi, Ulrich Volz","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12368","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper empirically examines the reaction of global financial markets across 38 economies to the COVID‐19 outbreak, with special focus on the dynamics of capital flows across 14 emerging market economies. The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy responses to COVID‐19 is also tested. Using daily data over the period January 4, 2010 to August 31, 2020, and controlling for a host of domestic and global macroeconomic and financial factors, we use a fixed effects panel approach and a structural VAR framework to show that emerging markets have been more heavily affected than advanced economies. In particular, emerging economies in Asia and Europe have experienced the sharpest impacts on stock, bond and exchange rates due to COVID‐19, as well as abrupt and substantial capital outflows. Quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus packages mainly helped to boost stock prices, notably for advanced and emerging economies in Asia. Our findings also highlight the role that global factors and developments in the world's leading financial centers have on financial conditions in EMEs. Importantly, the impact of COVID‐19 related quantitative easing measures by central banks in advanced countries extended to EMEs, with significant positive spillovers to EME stock markets in Asia, Europe and Latin America. Going forward, while the ultimate resolution of COVID‐19 may be expected to lead to a market correction as uncertainty declines, our impulse response analysis suggests that there may be persistent effects on bond markets in emerging Europe and on EME capital flows.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"498 - 538"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/1468-0106.12368","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43280749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study examines the impact from the COVID‐19 pandemic on the association between Chinese firms' SEO announcements and market reaction afterwards. Our findings indicate that market investors would respond more negatively to the SEO announcements and undergo more SEO underpricing for firms from regions significantly affected by the pandemic than those from the less‐affected regions. Furthermore, higher CSR scores and more involvements in accounting conservatism could mitigate these effects. The main mechanism of the moderating effect from CSR performance and accounting conservatism is that CSR investment and accounting conservatism could lessen information asymmetry between the SEO announced firms and outside investors. Finally, we document that the main motivation of SEO issuance during the pandemic is market timing.
{"title":"The impact of COVID‐19 on seasoned equity offering: Evidence from China","authors":"He Xiao, Jianqun Xi","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12371","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study examines the impact from the COVID‐19 pandemic on the association between Chinese firms' SEO announcements and market reaction afterwards. Our findings indicate that market investors would respond more negatively to the SEO announcements and undergo more SEO underpricing for firms from regions significantly affected by the pandemic than those from the less‐affected regions. Furthermore, higher CSR scores and more involvements in accounting conservatism could mitigate these effects. The main mechanism of the moderating effect from CSR performance and accounting conservatism is that CSR investment and accounting conservatism could lessen information asymmetry between the SEO announced firms and outside investors. Finally, we document that the main motivation of SEO issuance during the pandemic is market timing.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"539 - 572"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/1468-0106.12371","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45636217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zhiqiang Dong, Yaseen S. Alhaj-Yaseen, Yang Jiao, Yuejun Zhong
We conducted this research to explore the possible factors shaping son preference, with a view to understanding the persistently high male/female sex ratio. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) and the Population Census of China, we find a significant impact of regional sex ratio on people’s preferences for the sex of their future children. Specifically, the extent of son preference decreases with the increase in the male/female sex imbalance in the local area. We also find that sex imbalance has a positive impact on a wide range of outcomes that capture the pressure on males to enter marriage markets, such as regional housing prices, the number of houses owned, and family economic status. This result is consistent with the view that greater sex imbalance exerts larger pressure on men in the marriage market, leading to changes in son preference. Omitted variable bias is addressed by using climate changes in the month preceding fertilization period as an instrument for sex ratio. Instrumental sex ratio negatively impacts son preference, offering strong support for our hypothesis.
{"title":"Surplus men and scarce women: The impact of mating competition on the desire for sons in China\u0000 *","authors":"Zhiqiang Dong, Yaseen S. Alhaj-Yaseen, Yang Jiao, Yuejun Zhong","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12349","url":null,"abstract":"We conducted this research to explore the possible factors shaping son preference, with a view to understanding the persistently high male/female sex ratio. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) and the Population Census of China, we find a significant impact of regional sex ratio on people’s preferences for the sex of their future children. Specifically, the extent of son preference decreases with the increase in the male/female sex imbalance in the local area. We also find that sex imbalance has a positive impact on a wide range of outcomes that capture the pressure on males to enter marriage markets, such as regional housing prices, the number of houses owned, and family economic status. This result is consistent with the view that greater sex imbalance exerts larger pressure on men in the marriage market, leading to changes in son preference. Omitted variable bias is addressed by using climate changes in the month preceding fertilization period as an instrument for sex ratio. Instrumental sex ratio negatively impacts son preference, offering strong support for our hypothesis.","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/1468-0106.12349","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42615773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effects of wealth management products on bank risk in China: The role of audit committee effectiveness","authors":"Hongyan Geng, Maoyong Cheng, Junrui Zhang","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12366","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/1468-0106.12366","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43787652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Effects of cross‐border capital flows on stock returns of\u0000 dual‐listed\u0000 firms in mainland China and Hong Kong: Evidence from a natural experiment","authors":"Jia Wu, Jiada Lin, Zhenyu Yang, Luo Dong","doi":"10.1111/1468-0106.12321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0106.12321","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46516,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Economic Review","volume":"26 1","pages":"212-240"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/1468-0106.12321","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46394165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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