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Values, rights, and changing interests: The EU’s response to the war against Ukraine and the responsibility to protect Europeans 价值观、权利和不断变化的利益:欧盟对乌克兰战争的反应和保护欧洲人的责任
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2099713
G. Bosse
ABSTRACT Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU has taken dozens of decisions, on which agreement had hitherto been unthinkable due to differences between member states. A norms-based approach is used to better understand the EU’s unexpected agreement on two key measures: the sanctions packages against Russia and the decision to allow Ukrainian nationals the right to live and work in the EU. Congruence among member states over the responsibility to protect Ukrainian civilians from atrocity crimes and war crimes played an important role, including the obligations to react (sanctions) and to prevent (refugee protection). EU actions arising from moral obligations based on rights-based norms have been linked closely to values-based norms pertaining to EU solidarity, identity, and ethical obligations vis-à-vis fellow Europeans. These preliminary findings matter as they suggest an inextricable linkage between rights-based norms and values-based norms to trigger effects on EU foreign policy.
在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后,欧盟做出了数十项决定,由于成员国之间的分歧,在这些决定上达成一致是迄今为止难以想象的。基于规范的方法被用来更好地理解欧盟出人意料地就两项关键措施达成一致:对俄罗斯的一揽子制裁,以及允许乌克兰国民在欧盟生活和工作的决定。成员国在保护乌克兰平民免遭暴行罪和战争罪侵害的责任上的一致发挥了重要作用,包括应对(制裁)和预防(难民保护)的义务。基于权利规范的道德义务所产生的欧盟行动与基于价值观的规范密切相关,这些规范涉及欧盟的团结、认同和对-à-vis欧洲同胞的道德义务。这些初步调查结果很重要,因为它们表明,基于权利的规范和基于价值观的规范之间存在不可分割的联系,从而引发对欧盟外交政策的影响。
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引用次数: 25
War in the borderland through cyberspace: Limits of defending Ukraine through interstate cooperation 通过网络空间进行的边境战争:通过州际合作保卫乌克兰的局限性
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2093587
N. Kostyuk, Aaron F. Brantly
ABSTRACT Prior to the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, experts predicted an extensive cyber conflict. However, to date the scale of known cyberattacks has been quite modest. Pundits suggest that Ukraine’s improved cyber defenses, which it developed through its close cooperation with Western partners, is one of the possible explanations for Russia’s limited cyber front. This article interrogates this claim, outlining two plausible reasons for the limited effectiveness of Ukraine’s cyber defenses in the Kremlin’s limited cyber front. First, despite an extensive outpouring of cyber knowledge and expertise from the West, Ukraine’s cyber capabilities are still organizationally and operationally underdeveloped. Second, limited fungibility of cyber capabilities complicates interoperability between any joint operations and diminishes the West’s willingness to share their time-limited cyber tools with Ukraine. By explaining the challenges of interstate cooperation in the cyber domain, this article contributes to the literature on the role of alliances in modern warfare.
摘要在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前,专家预测会发生广泛的网络冲突。然而,到目前为止,已知的网络攻击规模相当小。专家们认为,乌克兰通过与西方合作伙伴的密切合作,改进了网络防御,这是俄罗斯网络战线有限的可能解释之一。这篇文章质疑了这一说法,概述了乌克兰在克里姆林宫有限的网络战线上网络防御效果有限的两个合理原因。首先,尽管西方提供了大量的网络知识和专业知识,但乌克兰的网络能力在组织和操作上仍然不发达。其次,网络能力的可替代性有限,使任何联合行动之间的互操作性变得复杂,并削弱了西方与乌克兰共享其限时网络工具的意愿。通过解释网络领域国家间合作的挑战,本文有助于研究联盟在现代战争中的作用。
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引用次数: 1
Making nuclear possession possible: The NPT disarmament principle and the production of less violent and more responsible nuclear states 使拥有核武器成为可能:《不扩散核武器条约》的裁军原则和产生较少暴力和更负责任的核国家
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2092679
C. Panico
ABSTRACT This article interrogates the disarmament principle under Article VI of the NPT, drawing attention to how the disarmament discourse shapes and reproduces the nuclear status quo. Building on the work of Kimberly Hutchings and Maja Zehfuss, I argue that the disarmament discourse renders nuclear possession more acceptable. It enables nuclear states to present themselves as less violent and more responsible actors glossing over the nature of possessing nuclear weapons. Using a feminist poststructuralist lens and examining empirical illustrations, the article explains how declarations of strict observance of the disarmament principle reaffirm traits and values that underpin social expectations of what is considered ethical and appropriate in nuclear politics. Moreover, it shows how the rhetorical commitment to a world free of nuclear weapons reinstitutes and preserves existing understandings around nuclear responsibility that define the bounds of acceptable nuclear possession, perpetuating the dominant status quo.
摘要本文探讨了《不扩散条约》第六条规定的裁军原则,提请注意裁军话语如何塑造和再现核现状。在Kimberly Hutchings和Maja Zehfuss工作的基础上,我认为裁军谈判使拥有核武器更容易被接受。它使核国家能够表现出较少暴力、更负责任的行为者,掩盖拥有核武器的性质。文章运用女权主义后结构主义的视角,并考察了经验例证,解释了严格遵守裁军原则的宣言如何重申了社会对核政治中被认为合乎道德和适当的东西的期望的特征和价值观。此外,它还表明,对一个没有核武器的世界的口头承诺是如何恢复和维护围绕核责任的现有谅解的,这些谅解界定了可接受的核拥有的界限,使主导现状永久化。
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引用次数: 0
Lessons (to be) learned? Germany’s Zeitenwende and European security after the Russian invasion of Ukraine 要吸取的教训?俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后德国的Zeitenwinde与欧洲安全
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-26 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2092820
Tobias Bunde
ABSTRACT In Germany, the Russian war on Ukraine is widely perceived as a “Zeitenwende,” a watershed moment undermining key foreign policy beliefs. Despite mounting evidence contradicting them, German elites previously failed to adapt core beliefs regarding Russia and the use of force because these beliefs were not only deeply embedded in largely uncontested identity constructions but also shaped the definition of economic interests, which in turn made ideational adaptation more costly. Moreover, Germany’s extraordinarily beneficial geopolitical situation in the post-Cold War era meant that the country could afford not to learn. Although the “Zeitenwende” will trigger significant change, it is unclear which lessons exactly Germans will now be learning and how far that adaptation will go. Given Germany’s key position in Europe and its previous role in shaping the European and transatlantic policy toward Russia, the results of these learning processes will significantly shape the emerging European security order.
摘要在德国,俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争被广泛认为是一场“Zeitenwinde”,这是一个破坏关键外交政策信念的分水岭时刻。尽管有越来越多的证据与之相矛盾,但德国精英此前未能调整关于俄罗斯和使用武力的核心信念,因为这些信念不仅深深植根于基本上没有争议的身份建构中,而且还塑造了经济利益的定义,这反过来又使概念调整的成本更高。此外,德国在后冷战时期极其有利的地缘政治形势意味着该国可以不学习。尽管“Zeitenwende”将引发重大变革,但目前尚不清楚德国人现在将吸取哪些教训,以及这种适应将走多远。考虑到德国在欧洲的关键地位及其之前在塑造欧洲和跨大西洋对俄政策方面的作用,这些学习过程的结果将对新兴的欧洲安全秩序产生重大影响。
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引用次数: 19
Who lost Ethiopia? The unmaking of an African anchor state and U.S. foreign policy 谁失去了埃塞俄比亚?非洲锚定国的解体与美国外交政策
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-24 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2091580
Harry Verhoeven, Michael Woldemariam
ABSTRACT In November 2020, Ethiopia descended into full-scale civil war which, owing to mass atrocities and regional intervention, metastasized into among the most acute humanitarian emergencies in the world. The violent fragmentation of state authority tarnished Ethiopia’s internationally sanctioned role as regional peacekeeper and developmental leader—an “anchor state” of the Pax Americana in the Horn of Africa. While acknowledging the complex, multi-dimensional origins of the conflict, this article examines how efforts by the U.S. government to reinvent the strategic relationship during the 2018–2020 political transition in Addis Ababa helped pave the road to war. We argue that U.S. policymakers provided largely unconditional support to Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, creating problems of moral hazard that encouraged confrontation between rival political forces. The story of U.S. engagement in Ethiopia in this period illustrates the perils of Washington’s efforts to rebalance fraught relations with its most important regional anchors.
2020年11月,埃塞俄比亚陷入全面内战,由于大规模暴行和地区干预,这场内战演变为世界上最严重的人道主义紧急情况之一。国家权力的暴力分裂玷污了埃塞俄比亚作为地区维和人员和发展领袖的国际认可角色——非洲之角美国和平的“锚定国”。在承认冲突的复杂、多维起源的同时,本文考察了美国政府在2018-2020年亚的斯亚贝巴政治过渡期间重塑战略关系的努力如何为战争铺平了道路。我们认为,美国政策制定者向埃塞俄比亚新总理阿比·艾哈迈德提供了基本上无条件的支持,造成了道德风险问题,鼓励了敌对政治力量之间的对抗。在这一时期,美国与埃塞俄比亚的接触表明,华盛顿试图重新平衡与其最重要的地区支柱之间紧张关系的努力是危险的。
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引用次数: 5
War in Ukraine: Putin and the multi-order world 乌克兰战争:普京与多秩序世界
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-24 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2091591
Trine Flockhart, E. Korosteleva
ABSTRACT The global rules-based order has been in transformation for more than a decade, whilst the liberal international order has been in crisis and new international orders are emerging. Within this context, the Russian invasion of Ukraine marks what the Germans have called a Zeitenwende because the multi-order world is now a reality. The article outlines the main characteristics and implications of a multi-order world and outlines four categories of orders that will populate the multi-order world. The article details Putin’s vision for a Eurasian order and how his plans are received within the Eurasian order. The article offers a perspective on how the global dynamics of the new multi-order world might play out, showing that it is likely to be conflictual rather than a cooperative, and that members of the Eurasian order show little enthusiasm for Putin’s vision, resulting in an order held together by force rather than consent.
十多年来,以规则为基础的全球秩序经历了变革,自由主义国际秩序陷入危机,新的国际秩序正在形成。在这种背景下,俄罗斯入侵乌克兰标志着德国人所谓的时代转型(Zeitenwende),因为多秩序世界现在已经成为现实。本文概述了多秩序世界的主要特征和含义,并概述了将构成多秩序世界的四类秩序。这篇文章详细介绍了普京对欧亚秩序的愿景,以及欧亚秩序如何接受他的计划。这篇文章提供了一个关于新的多秩序世界的全球动态可能如何发挥作用的视角,表明它可能是冲突而不是合作,欧亚秩序的成员对普京的愿景没有什么热情,导致秩序通过武力而不是同意来维系。
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引用次数: 16
Russia's anti-satellite weapons: A hedging and offsetting strategy to deter Western aerospace forces 俄罗斯的反卫星武器:一种对冲和抵消战略,以威慑西方航空航天力量
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2090070
Jaganath Sankaran
Abstract Russia has recently tested several anti-satellite weapons. The Russian military literature reveals hedging and offsetting strategies behind these actions. First, Russians cast their weapons as a mirror response to American experiments. Russians fear a technological surprise and suggest that their experimentation hedges against significant advantages that may accrue to the United States from dominating space. Second, Russians perceive satellites providing vital targeting and navigation information as crucial enablers of U.S. and NATO aerospace precision strike weapons. Therefore, dependence on space-based assets is a vulnerability that Russia cannot fail to take advantage of in a crisis to offset U.S. and NATO military superiority. Some unilateral measures such as deploying cheaper and distributed small satellite constellations can reduce U.S. and allied vulnerabilities. Bilateral behavioral norms can offer reassurances to both the United States and Russia. However, deeper regulation and limits on emerging strategic aerospace weaponry may also be required.
俄罗斯最近测试了几种反卫星武器。俄罗斯军事文献揭示了这些行动背后的对冲和抵消策略。首先,俄罗斯人将他们的武器作为对美国实验的镜像反应。俄罗斯人担心出现技术上的意外,并表示,他们的实验可以对冲美国可能从主导太空中获得的重大优势。其次,俄罗斯人认为卫星提供了重要的目标和导航信息,是美国和北约航空航天精确打击武器的关键推动因素。因此,对天基资产的依赖是俄罗斯在危机中不可能不利用的弱点,以抵消美国和北约的军事优势。一些单边措施,如部署更便宜和分布式的小型卫星星座,可以减少美国及其盟国的脆弱性。双边行为规范可以让美国和俄罗斯都放心。然而,可能还需要对新兴战略航空航天武器进行更深入的监管和限制。
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引用次数: 1
Why Russia attacked Ukraine: Strategic culture and radicalized narratives 俄罗斯为何攻击乌克兰:战略文化与激进叙事
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2082633
Elias Götz, J. Staun
ABSTRACT This article explores Russia’s attack on Ukraine using the lens of strategic culture. Specifically, two strands in Russian strategic culture are identified. The first is a deep-seated sense of vulnerability, especially vis-à-vis “the West.” To counter this perceived threat, Russia’s national security establishment has long emphasized the importance of possessing strategic depth and buffer zones. The second strand revolves around a feeling of entitlement to great power status. A central component in Russia’s great power vision is the right to have a sphere of influence in its Eurasian neighborhood. The article shows that Kremlin officials perceived Ukraine’s drift toward the West as a major threat to both Russia’s security interests and its status aspirations. As a result, Russia’s rhetorical milieu regarding Ukraine became increasingly radicalized. The article concludes that this provided the discursive and intellectual habitat that enabled Putin to launch a large-scale attack.
摘要本文从战略文化的角度探讨了俄罗斯对乌克兰的进攻。具体而言,俄罗斯战略文化有两个方面。首先是根深蒂固的脆弱感,尤其是面对“西方”。为了应对这种感知到的威胁,俄罗斯国家安全机构长期以来一直强调拥有战略纵深和缓冲区的重要性。第二部分围绕着一种获得大国地位的感觉。俄罗斯大国愿景的一个核心组成部分是在其欧亚邻国拥有势力范围的权利。这篇文章显示,克里姆林宫官员认为乌克兰向西方靠拢是对俄罗斯安全利益和地位愿望的重大威胁。因此,俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上的言论环境变得越来越激进。文章的结论是,这为普京发动大规模袭击提供了话语和知识的栖息地。
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引用次数: 28
Great power identity in Russia’s position on autonomous weapons systems 俄罗斯自主武器系统立场中的大国身份
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-19 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2075665
A. Nadibaidze
ABSTRACT This article proposes an identity-based analysis of the Russian position in the global debate on autonomous weapons systems (AWS). Based on an interpretation of Russian written and verbal statements submitted to the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) meetings from 2014 to 2022, I find that two key integral elements of Russian great power identity—the promotion of multipolarity and the recognition of Russia’s equal participation in global affairs—guide its evolving position on the potential regulation of AWS. The analysis makes an empirical contribution by examining one of the most active participants in the CCW discussion, an opponent to any new regulations of so-called “killer robots,” and a developer of autonomy in weapons systems. It highlights the value of a more thorough understanding of the ideas guiding the Russian position, assisting actors who seek a ban on AWS in crafting their responses and strategies in the debate.
摘要本文对俄罗斯在全球自主武器系统辩论中的立场进行了基于身份的分析。根据对俄罗斯提交给2014年至2022年《联合国特定常规武器公约》会议的书面和口头声明的解释,我发现,俄罗斯大国身份的两个关键组成部分——促进多极和承认俄罗斯平等参与全球事务——指导了其对AWS潜在监管的不断演变的立场。该分析通过考察《特定常规武器公约》讨论中最积极的参与者之一,反对任何所谓“杀手机器人”的新法规,以及武器系统自主性的开发者,做出了实证贡献。它强调了更彻底地理解指导俄罗斯立场的思想的价值,帮助寻求禁止AWS的行为者在辩论中制定应对措施和策略。
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引用次数: 5
Winning a seat at the table: Strategic routes by emerging powers to gain privileges in exclusive formal clubs 赢得席位:新兴大国获得专属正式俱乐部特权的战略路线
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-18 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2074116
G. Heimann, Deganit Paikowsky
ABSTRACT Established powers enjoy privileges in world politics coveted by emerging powers. These privileges vary in their level of institutionalization: full formal privileges, partial formal privileges, and informal privileges. We identify two alternative strategic routes through which emerging powers target these three types of privileges: a top-down and a bottom-up route. We analyze two factors that impact the choice between these two routes: restrictiveness of eligibility criteria for winning privileges, and the expected levels of opposition by both established powers and outsiders. We examine the impact of these factors on two cases in which India negotiated privileges: India’s top-down campaign to win a permanent seat on the UN Security Council; and India’s bottom-up campaign to enter the nuclear club as a de facto nuclear weapon state. Highly restrictive eligibility criteria along with high levels of opposition drove India to gradually seek nuclear privileges through a bottom-up route.
老牌大国在世界政治中享有新兴大国梦寐以求的特权。这些特权的制度化程度各不相同:完全正式特权、部分正式特权和非正式特权。我们确定了新兴大国获取这三种特权的两条备选战略路线:自上而下和自下而上路线。我们分析了影响这两种路径选择的两个因素:赢得特权的资格标准的限制,以及现有权力和外部势力的预期反对程度。我们研究了这些因素对印度谈判特权的两个案例的影响:印度为赢得联合国安理会常任理事国席位而进行的自上而下的运动;以及印度以事实上的核武器国家身份进入核俱乐部的自下而上的运动。严格的资格标准和强烈的反对促使印度通过自下而上的途径逐步寻求核特权。
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引用次数: 0
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Contemporary Security Policy
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