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Beyond deterrence: Reconceptualizing denial strategies and rethinking their emotional effects 超越威慑:重新定义拒绝策略并重新思考其情感影响
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-16 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2185970
Samuel Žilinčík, T. Sweijs
ABSTRACT Contrary to detailed work on deterrence by punishment, Western strategic thought about denial and its effects is conceptually muddled at the expense of effective strategy-making. This article seeks to reconceptualize denial and rethink its emotional effects. It defines denial as a strategy aimed at frustrating the adversary’s military power and proposes four different denial logics: capability elimination, operational paralysis, tactical degradation, and strategic effect reduction. It then turns to the effects through which these denial logics generate favorable consequences, and singles out the emotions of despondency, resignation, fear, and disappointment as the key factors that mediate their impact. The article offers a framework that can help guide further theoretical reflection and empirical research, as well as inform the development of policies and strategies in today’s world.
摘要与惩罚威慑的详细研究相反,西方关于否认及其影响的战略思想在概念上是混乱的,而牺牲了有效的战略制定。本文试图重新定义否认的概念,并重新思考其情感影响。它将拒止定义为一种旨在挫败对手军事力量的策略,并提出了四种不同的拒止逻辑:能力消除、作战瘫痪、战术降级和战略效果降低。然后,它转向这些否认逻辑产生有利后果的效果,并指出沮丧、顺从、恐惧和失望情绪是调节其影响的关键因素。这篇文章提供了一个框架,可以帮助指导进一步的理论反思和实证研究,并为当今世界的政策和战略发展提供信息。
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引用次数: 3
Learning to trust Skynet: Interfacing with artificial intelligence in cyberspace 学会信任天网:在网络空间与人工智能对接
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2180882
Christopher Whyte
ABSTRACT The use of AI to automate defense and intelligence tasks is increasing. And yet, little is known about how algorithmic analyses, data capture, and decisions will be perceived by elite decision-makers. This article presents the results of two experiments that explore manifestations of AI systems in the cyber conflict decision-making loop. Though findings suggest that technical expertise positively impacts respondents’ ability to gauge the potential utility and credibility of an input (indicating that training can, in fact, overcome bias), the perception of human agency in the loop even in the presence of AI inputs mitigates this effect and makes decision-makers more willing to operate on less information. This finding is worrying given the extensive challenges involved in effectively building human oversight and opportunity for intervention into any effective employment of AI for national security purposes. The article considers these obstacles and potential solutions in the context of data gathered.
人工智能在自动化国防和情报任务中的应用越来越多。然而,对于精英决策者将如何看待算法分析、数据捕获和决策,我们知之甚少。本文介绍了两个探索人工智能系统在网络冲突决策循环中的表现的实验结果。尽管研究结果表明,技术专长对受访者衡量输入的潜在效用和可信度的能力产生了积极影响(表明培训实际上可以克服偏见),但即使在人工智能输入存在的情况下,对循环中人类代理的感知也会减轻这种影响,并使决策者更愿意在更少的信息上操作。这一发现令人担忧,因为有效地建立人类监督和干预机会涉及广泛的挑战,以有效地利用人工智能来实现国家安全目的。本文在收集数据的背景下考虑这些障碍和潜在的解决方案。
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引用次数: 1
The limits of strategic partnerships: Implications for China’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war 战略伙伴关系的局限性:对中国在俄乌战争中的作用的启示
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2174702
Nien-chung Chang-Liao
ABSTRACT Will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine bring China and Russia closer together or drive them farther apart, or will it be business as usual? This article addresses this question by conceptualizing the main characteristics of the China–Russia strategic partnership. It argues that a strategic partnership, characterized as it is by informality, equality, and inclusivity, is essentially different from an alliance or alignment. These characteristics allow Beijing to distance itself from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. This makes it unlikely that China will attempt any simultaneous aggression in East Asia or that it will be able to mediate in the conflict. This effectively rules out the rise of a China–Russia axis. As China strives to balance its close ties with Russia and its economic engagement with the West, Beijing is more likely to maintain, rather than strengthen or weaken, its strategic partnership with Moscow.
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰会让中俄两国走得更近还是更远,还是一切如常?本文通过阐述中俄战略伙伴关系的主要特征来解决这一问题。报告认为,战略伙伴关系具有非正式性、平等性和包容性的特点,本质上不同于联盟或结盟。这些特点使北京与莫斯科入侵乌克兰保持距离。这使得中国不太可能同时在东亚进行侵略,也不太可能在冲突中进行调解。这有效地排除了中俄轴心崛起的可能性。随着中国努力平衡与俄罗斯的密切关系以及与西方的经济接触,北京更有可能维持,而不是加强或削弱与莫斯科的战略伙伴关系。
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引用次数: 2
Risk acceptance and offensive war: The case of Russia under the Putin regime 风险接受与进攻性战争:普京政权下的俄罗斯
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-11 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2164974
Jonas J. Driedger
ABSTRACT Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine in early 2022 was seemingly driven by an unprecedented willingness to accept risks for the Russian regime, state, and society. Developing a generalizable framework, this article analyzes the development of Russian risk acceptance in offensive war initiation. Drawing on policy documents, speeches, expert literature, and various interviews with Russian, Ukrainian, and Western policymakers, the article finds that risk acceptance has continuously risen since the mid-2000s, although the 2022 invasion still evinces some risk aversion. These results are robust when accounting for miscalculation and caution against attributing the 2022 invasion solely to short-term and leader-centric factors. They also provide cues for understanding the crisis behavior of Russia and other major powers, corroborate prospect theory models on cognitive biases in elite decision-making, and indicate the need to revise the theoretical assumption that risk acceptance is an empirically rare and drastic aberration from a risk-neutral or risk-averse normality.
俄罗斯在2022年初决定入侵乌克兰,似乎是出于对俄罗斯政权、国家和社会承担风险的前所未有的意愿。本文建立了一个可推广的框架,分析了俄罗斯在进攻战争启动过程中风险接受的发展。根据政策文件、演讲、专家文献以及对俄罗斯、乌克兰和西方政策制定者的各种采访,文章发现,自2000年代中期以来,风险接受度不断上升,尽管2022年的入侵仍然显示出一些风险厌恶情绪。考虑到误判和谨慎,不要把2022年的入侵仅仅归因于短期和以领导人为中心的因素,这些结果是强有力的。它们还为理解俄罗斯和其他大国的危机行为提供了线索,证实了精英决策中认知偏差的前景理论模型,并表明有必要修改理论假设,即风险接受是风险中性或风险厌恶常态的经验罕见和严重偏差。
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引用次数: 4
Coercive disclosure: The weaponization of public intelligence revelation in international relations 强制披露:国际关系中公共情报披露的武器化
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2164122
Ofek Riemer, Daniel Sobelman
ABSTRACT Can intelligence serve as a coercive instrument in international relations? While coercion literature mostly addresses military and economic means, this article argues that coercion can also include the deliberate public disclosure of intelligence. Intelligence can be employed to threaten adversaries, reduce their latitude, and force them to adjust their plans and operations. Additionally, intelligence disclosure can be used to mobilize domestic and international audiences and make others align with a certain narrative and alter their policies accordingly. Still, coercive disclosure can fail or succeed only partially against a determined opponent or a target that is resilient to public and international pressure. To demonstrate the workings of coercive disclosure, we analyze Israel's campaign, beginning in 2017, against the Lebanese Hezbollah’s missile manufacturing program and Turkey's coercive campaign vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia and the United States following Jamal Khashoggi's assassination in 2018.
摘要:情报在国际关系中能起到胁迫性工具的作用吗?虽然胁迫文献主要涉及军事和经济手段,但本文认为胁迫也可以包括故意公开披露情报。情报可以用来威胁对手,减少他们的自由度,迫使他们调整计划和行动。此外,情报披露可以用来动员国内和国际受众,使其他人与某种叙述保持一致,并相应地改变其政策。尽管如此,强制性披露只能部分针对坚定的对手或能够抵御公众和国际压力的目标而失败或成功。为了证明强制披露的运作方式,我们分析了以色列从2017年开始针对黎巴嫩真主党导弹制造计划的行动,以及2018年贾迈勒·卡舒吉遇刺后土耳其对沙特阿拉伯和美国的强制行动。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental differentiation as an innovative form of cooperation in the European Union: Evidence from the Nordic Battlegroup 作为欧盟合作创新形式的实验性差异化:来自北欧战斗群的证据
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2143890
Benjamin Leruth
ABSTRACT This article focuses on the use of experimental differentiation, a form of small-scale pilot program that aims at testing whether further institutional integration can be bolstered in an area where cooperation has not been tested or proven. Experimental differentiation consists of three features. Firstly, participation should not be constrained by membership in the European Union. Secondly, experimental differentiation should consist of short-term projects. Thirdly, the functional scope of such experiments should be clearly limited to reduce the expected political costs of participation. Empirically, this article focuses on the EU Battlegroups and analyzes how the above-mentioned features drove political actors to support participation. While EU Battlegroups have been criticized for their lack of effective action and the political and financial costs they entail, this article offers a more positive feature, arguing that Battlegroups should be seen as experiments that lead reluctant political actors to consider their cooperation under the EU framework.
本文重点讨论了实验差异化的使用,这是一种小规模试点项目,旨在测试在合作尚未经过测试或证实的领域,是否可以加强进一步的制度整合。实验分化包括三个特征。首先,参与不应受到欧盟成员国身份的限制。其次,实验差异化应由短期项目组成。第三,应明确限制这种实验的功能范围,以减少参与的预期政治成本。从实证角度出发,本文以欧盟战斗群为研究对象,分析上述特点是如何促使政治行为体支持参与的。尽管欧盟战斗群因缺乏有效的行动以及它们所带来的政治和财政成本而受到批评,但本文提供了一个更积极的特征,认为战斗群应被视为实验,导致不情愿的政治参与者考虑在欧盟框架下进行合作。
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引用次数: 2
The 2023 Bernard Brodie Prize 2023年伯纳德·布罗迪奖
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2164914
H. Dijkstra
Contemporary Security Policy awards the Bernard Brodie Prize annually to the author(s) of an outstanding article published in the journal the previous year. The award is named after Dr. Bernard Brodie (1918–1978), author of The Absolute Weapon (1946), Strategy in the Missile Age (1958), and War and Strategy (1973). Brodie’s ideas remain at the center of security debates to this day. One of the first analysts to cross between official and academic environments, he pioneered the very model of civilian influence that Contemporary Security Policy represents. Contemporary Security Policy is honored to acknowledge the permission of Brodie’s son, Dr. Bruce R. Brodie, to use his father’s name. The winner of the 2023 Bernard Brodie Prize is:
《当代安全政策》每年向前一年在该杂志上发表的杰出文章的作者颁发伯纳德·布罗迪奖。该奖项以伯纳德·布罗迪博士(1918–1978)的名字命名,他著有《绝对武器》(1946)、《导弹时代的战略》(1958)和《战争与战略》(1973)。布罗迪的想法至今仍是安全辩论的中心。作为最早在官方和学术环境之间进行交叉的分析人士之一,他开创了当代安全政策所代表的平民影响力模式。当代安全政策荣幸地承认布罗迪的儿子布鲁斯·布罗迪博士允许使用他父亲的名字。2023年伯纳德·布罗迪奖的获奖者是:
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引用次数: 0
Differentiated cooperation as the mode of governance in EU foreign policy 差异化合作是欧盟外交政策的治理模式
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2168854
Maria Giulia Amadio Viceré, M. Sus
ABSTRACT While the standard conceptualization of differentiation in the European Union (EU) focuses on differentiated integration, scholars devote less attention to differentiated cooperation. This article argues, on the contrary, that member states’ engagement in differentiated efforts in EU foreign policy manifest themselves both in the form of differentiated integration and cooperation. It elaborates an original conceptual framework for exploring differentiated cooperation as a mode of governance. Drawing on the articles in this special issue, this introduction maps empirical manifestations of differentiated cooperation in various areas and dimensions of EU foreign policy. The results of the special issue show that differentiated cooperation has mostly manifested itself in informal patterns of cooperation, with the treaty-based mechanisms being limited. As such, the special issue reflects the differentiation and informalization processes occurring not only in the EU, but also in global governance more broadly.
摘要尽管欧盟对差异化的标准概念侧重于差异化的一体化,但学者们对差异化合作的关注较少。相反,本文认为,成员国在欧盟外交政策中的差异化努力表现为差异化的一体化与合作。它阐述了探索差异化合作作为一种治理模式的原始概念框架。根据本期特刊中的文章,本导言描绘了欧盟外交政策各个领域和层面差异化合作的经验表现。特刊的结果表明,有区别的合作主要表现为非正式的合作模式,基于条约的机制有限。因此,特刊反映了不仅在欧盟,而且在更广泛的全球治理中发生的分化和非正规化过程。
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引用次数: 3
Combined differentiation in European defense: tailoring Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) to strategic and political complexity 欧洲防务的联合差异化:根据战略和政治复杂性调整永久结构合作(PESCO)
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-18 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2155360
Benjamin Martill, C. Gebhard
ABSTRACT Sustaining meaningful defense cooperation in Europe is made difficult by defense-industrial fragmentation, a multiplicity of institutional frameworks, divergent strategic cultures and domestic opposition to integration. The European Union’s recent foray into defense integration incorporates multiple forms of differentiation to overcome these barriers, with Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) characterized by selective membership, external participation, and project-based clustering. Such “combined differentiation” offers an instructive example of how EU practices and principles can contribute to meaningful defense collaboration, even though Brussels is often thought a weak actor externally. It also illustrates how distinct forms of differentiation can be embodied within a single structure to accommodate complexity in strategic preferences. Using the example of PESCO, this article shows how “combined differentiation” has emerged as a response to the nature of the European defense landscape and how debates between member states about how to respond to specific challenges have brought about further differentiation over time.
摘要:国防工业的碎片化、制度框架的多样性、战略文化的分歧以及国内对一体化的反对,使欧洲难以维持有意义的国防合作。欧盟最近对国防一体化的尝试结合了多种形式的差异化来克服这些障碍,永久结构合作(PESCO)的特点是选择性成员、外部参与和基于项目的集群。这种“综合差异”提供了一个有启发性的例子,说明欧盟的做法和原则如何有助于有意义的国防合作,尽管布鲁塞尔在外部往往被认为是一个软弱的行动者。它还说明了如何在单一结构中体现不同形式的差异,以适应战略偏好的复杂性。本文以PESCO为例,展示了“联合差异化”是如何作为对欧洲防务格局性质的回应而出现的,以及成员国之间关于如何应对特定挑战的辩论如何随着时间的推移而导致进一步的差异化。
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引用次数: 5
How does delegation structure shape agent discretion in EU foreign policy? Evidence from the Normandy Format and the Contact Group on Libya 授权结构如何影响欧盟外交政策中的代理人自由裁量权?来自诺曼底模式和利比亚问题联络小组的证据
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2022.2148942
M. Sus
ABSTRACT Informal groupings have proliferated in EU foreign policy over the past decade, despite the enhanced role of the High Representative tasked with ensuring the coherence of this policy domain under the Lisbon Treaty. This article analyzes how the decision of select EU member states to act on certain policy issues through informal groupings, bypassing the EU framework, affects the High Representative’s room for maneuver. Drawing on the principal-agent model, the emergence of informal groupings is conceptualized as a manifestation of pathological delegation, which undermines High Representative’s role. The findings reveal two factors that may nevertheless increase the agent’s discretion in cases of delegation anomalies: the low heterogeneity of member state preferences toward the informal grouping and the interaction between agents in the same domain, facilitating agent’s performance. By examining agent's discretion when delegation anomalies arise, the article may be useful for scholars investigating delegation and agency in international organizations.
在过去的十年中,尽管高级代表的任务是确保里斯本条约下这一政策领域的一致性,但非正式集团在欧盟外交政策中激增。本文分析了选定的欧盟成员国绕过欧盟框架,通过非正式分组对某些政策问题采取行动的决定如何影响高级代表的回旋余地。根据委托-代理模型,非正式分组的出现被概念化为病态授权的表现,这破坏了高级代表的作用。研究结果揭示了在委托异常情况下可能增加代理人自由裁量权的两个因素:成员国对非正式分组偏好的低异质性和同一领域代理人之间的互动,促进了代理人的绩效。本文通过考察代理在委托异常情况下的自由裁量权,对研究国际组织委托与代理的学者有一定的借鉴意义。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Contemporary Security Policy
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