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Deterrence by delivery of arms: NATO and the war in Ukraine 武器输送的威慑:北约和乌克兰战争
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2256572
Amir Lupovici
During the course of the war in Ukraine, various actors have employed a unique type of deterrence by denial: namely, the threat to deliver arms. NATO leaders have committed—through rhetoric and deeds—to continue to deliver weapons to Ukraine if Russia escalated the war in order to deny Russian success. Not only is this type of strategy undertheorized, but it also challenges the distinction between direct and extended deterrence that has been central to deterrence scholarship. In deterrence by delivery of arms, the patron deters not by threatening to fight or deploy forces, but by committing to send weapons. However, the strategy also requires the protégé’s ability to fight. Studying deterrence by delivery of arms opens up understudied areas of deterrence (by denial), and provides a useful opportunity to consider how prominent concepts contribute to the research but also at times limit it.
在乌克兰战争期间,各方都采用了一种独特的否认威慑方式:即威胁提供武器。北约领导人已经通过言辞和行动承诺,如果俄罗斯为了阻止俄罗斯的成功而升级战争,北约将继续向乌克兰运送武器。这种类型的战略不仅理论不足,而且还挑战了直接威慑和延伸威慑之间的区别,而直接威慑和延伸威慑一直是威慑学术的核心。在提供武器的威慑中,赞助人不是通过威胁战斗或部署军队来威慑,而是通过承诺运送武器来威慑。然而,这一策略也需要变性人的战斗能力。通过武器交付来研究威慑开辟了尚未被充分研究的威慑领域(通过拒绝),并提供了一个有用的机会来考虑突出的概念如何对研究做出贡献,但有时也会限制研究。
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引用次数: 0
Utility-based predictions of military escalation: Why experts forecasted Russia would not invade Ukraine 基于效用的军事升级预测:为什么专家预测俄罗斯不会入侵乌克兰
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2259153
Jonas J. Driedger, Mikhail Polianskii
When Russia amassed troops in the winter of 2021–2022, many analysts deemed a large-scale invasion of Ukraine unlikely. Surveying the expert literature, we establish that these arguments largely relied on utility-based reasoning: Analysts thought an invasion was improbable, as it would foreseeably entail massive costs for Russia, its people, and its regime. We show that this regnant expert opinion had not sufficiently accounted for the Russian regime’s tendencies to increasingly accept risks, coupled with an inadequate processing of information on Ukrainian and Western views and policies. We argue that analysts miscalculated partially because the most prominent facts, long-term trends, and causal mechanisms available to them jointly suggested Russian cost-sensitivity, but provided only weak signs of countervailing factors. We thereby showcase that good forecasting requires explicit theory with a view on multiple interacting causal factors, area expertise and Socratic humility on the extent, context and certainty of our findings.
当俄罗斯在2021年至2022年冬季集结军队时,许多分析人士认为不太可能大规模入侵乌克兰。通过对专家文献的调查,我们确定这些论点在很大程度上依赖于基于效用的推理:分析人士认为入侵是不可能的,因为可以预见,入侵将给俄罗斯、俄罗斯人民和俄罗斯政权带来巨大的代价。我们表明,这种统治专家的意见没有充分考虑到俄罗斯政权日益接受风险的倾向,以及对乌克兰和西方观点和政策的信息处理不足。我们认为,分析人员之所以计算错误,部分原因在于,他们所掌握的最突出的事实、长期趋势和因果机制共同表明,俄罗斯对成本敏感,但只提供了微弱的抵消因素迹象。因此,我们表明,良好的预测需要明确的理论,并考虑多种相互作用的因果因素,领域专业知识和苏格拉底式的谦逊,我们的发现的程度,背景和确定性。
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引用次数: 5
The limits of weaponised interdependence after the Russian war against Ukraine 俄罗斯对乌克兰开战后,武器化的相互依赖的局限性
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-24 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2256065
Vinícius G. Rodrigues Vieira
ABSTRACTThe idea of weaponised interdependence has led many to believe that Russia would not invade Ukraine due to the high costs of sanctions, including through the Western-backed SWIFT system of financial payments. Although Russia’s economy has been facing shortcomings, the Russian leadership thrived in part due to connections beyond the West. This article argues that scholars have missed the fact that, more than being interdependent with the West, rising states have been decoupling from the United States and the European Union. Emerging powers, particularly China and Russia, have expanded their trade network and built their own financial infrastructure. Those transformations call for a less Western-centric International Relations (IR) scholarship. Scholars should furthermore not only focus on theories of Neoliberal Institutionalism, but also consider contributions from Realism and Marxism to International Political Economy (IPE).KEYWORDS: Sanctionsdecouplingde-dollarizationSWIFTCIPSBRICS AcknowledgementsI would like to thank the CSP editorial team for their guidance in preparing the final version of this manuscript. I am also grateful for the comments two anonymous reviewers provided. Any remaining mistakes are my own responsibility.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 In revising the second edition of this work, published in 1990, Pape (Citation1997, Citation1998, p. 66) claimed that only five cases out of 114 can actually be considered successful.
【摘要】武器化的相互依存理念让许多人相信,由于制裁的高昂成本,包括通过西方支持的金融支付系统SWIFT,俄罗斯不会入侵乌克兰。尽管俄罗斯经济一直面临缺陷,但俄罗斯领导层的繁荣在一定程度上要归功于与西方以外的关系。本文认为,学者们忽略了一个事实,即新兴国家不仅与西方相互依存,而且一直在与美国和欧盟脱钩。新兴大国,尤其是中国和俄罗斯,已经扩大了贸易网络,建立了自己的金融基础设施。这些转变需要较少以西方为中心的国际关系(IR)研究。学者们不仅应该关注新自由主义制度主义的理论,还应该考虑现实主义和马克思主义对国际政治经济学的贡献。关键词:制裁脱钩去美元化swiftcipsbrics致谢感谢CSP编辑团队在编写本文最终版本时提供的指导。我也很感谢两位匿名评论者提供的评论。任何剩下的错误都是我自己的责任。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1:在修改1990年出版的第二版时,Pape (Citation1997, Citation1998, p. 66)声称114例中只有5例可以被认为是成功的。
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引用次数: 1
Horses, nails, and messages: Three defense industries of the Ukraine war 马、钉子和信息:乌克兰战争的三大国防工业
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-24 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2257965
Jonathan D. Caverley
ABSTRACTMajor arms producing states and defense firms have struggled to supply the Ukraine war's massive demand for munitions. Key elements of the war—such as artificial intelligence-enabled analysis of data obtained from commercial surveillance satellites transmitted by the privately-owned Starlink network—have emerged from new providers as well as developed organically on the battlefield. Research failed to anticipate this due largely to the discipline’s focus on the “defense industry” rather than three distinct “defense industries” highlighted in the war: platforms such as tanks, commodities such as artillery shells and loitering munitions, and militarized “tech” such as commercial satellites and artificial intelligence. Understanding each requires a distinct political economic approach. Using these three lenses, the article concludes that the United States retains advantages in all three industries, Europe risks regressing into a commodities producer, and China seeks to disrupt, rather than duplicate, American defense industrial advantages in technology.KEYWORDS: Ukrainemilitary technologydefense industryspacedefense economics AcknowledgementsThe author would like to thank Jordan Becker, Ethan Kapstein, Mike Poznansky, and Sam Tangredi.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
主要武器生产国和国防公司一直在努力满足乌克兰战争对武器的巨大需求。战争的关键要素,如对私人拥有的星链网络传输的商业监视卫星获得的数据进行人工智能分析,已经从新的供应商那里出现,并在战场上有机地发展起来。研究未能预料到这一点,主要原因是该学科关注的是“国防工业”,而不是战争中突出的三种不同的“国防工业”:坦克等平台,炮弹和游荡弹药等商品,以及商业卫星和人工智能等军事化“技术”。理解这两者需要不同的政治经济方法。从这三个角度来看,文章得出结论,美国在所有三个行业都保持优势,欧洲有倒退为商品生产国的风险,中国试图破坏而不是复制美国在国防工业技术方面的优势。作者要感谢Jordan Becker、Ethan Kapstein、Mike Poznansky和Sam Tangredi。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。
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引用次数: 0
Whether to worry: Nuclear weapons in the Russia-Ukraine war 是否需要担心:俄乌战争中的核武器
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-24 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2260175
Giles David Arceneaux
ABSTRACTRussia’s war in Ukraine directly speaks to a core theory in nuclear politics: the theory of the nuclear revolution. Whereas this theory argues that nuclear weapons inhibit conflict and competition in international politics, skeptics of the nuclear revolution argue that competition endures in a nuclear world, and that nuclear weapons can even enable such competition. This article argues that the Russia-Ukraine war challenges expectations of the theory of the nuclear revolution, while largely supporting arguments made by the nuclear revolution skeptics. Specifically, the article argues that the theory of the nuclear revolution cannot explain Russia’s use of nuclear threats to enable its conventional aggression, nor can it explain the ways in which Russia has developed its nuclear posture to provide a bargaining advantage in competitive risk-taking scenarios. These findings challenge the leading theory in the field of nuclear politics and yield policy implications for maintaining nuclear stability during crises.KEYWORDS: War in Ukrainenuclear revolutiondeterrenceemboldenmentnuclear weapons AcknowledgementsThe author thanks the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft of this article.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争直接谈到了核政治的一个核心理论:核革命理论。这一理论认为,核武器抑制了国际政治中的冲突和竞争,而对核革命持怀疑态度的人则认为,在一个有核的世界里,竞争依然存在,核武器甚至可以使这种竞争成为可能。本文认为,俄乌战争挑战了对核革命理论的期望,同时在很大程度上支持了核革命怀疑论者的论点。具体来说,这篇文章认为,核革命理论不能解释俄罗斯使用核威胁来实现其常规侵略,也不能解释俄罗斯如何发展其核态势,以便在竞争性冒险情景中提供讨价还价的优势。这些发现挑战了核政治领域的领先理论,并产生了在危机期间维持核稳定的政策含义。作者感谢两位匿名审稿人对本文早期草稿的有益评论和建议。披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。
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引用次数: 1
Letting sleeping bears lie: Ukraine’s cautious approach to uncertainty before the war 放下沉睡的熊:乌克兰在战前对不确定性的谨慎态度
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2257966
Samuel M. Seitz
International relations theory has long suggested that uncertainty during militarized crises pushes states to adopt escalatory behavior. However, the leadup to the Russo-Ukrainian War challenges this view, with Kyiv downplaying the risk of conflict and adopting a cautious foreign policy. I argue that Ukrainian behavior in the leadup to the war demonstrates the need to disaggregate between types of uncertainty. While uncertainty over an adversary’s intentions and capabilities can push a state to adopt escalatory behavior, uncertainty regarding a potential adversary’s military strategy and regarding the level of support it can expect from third parties incentivizes a state to assume a more cautious posture. The piece concludes with a reflection on disciplinary blind spots regarding the impact of uncertainty on state decision-making and offers suggestions for overcoming them.
长期以来,国际关系理论一直认为,军事化危机期间的不确定性促使国家采取升级行为。然而,俄乌战争的前奏挑战了这一观点,基辅淡化了冲突的风险,并采取了谨慎的外交政策。我认为,乌克兰在战争爆发前的行为表明,有必要在不同类型的不确定性之间进行分解。虽然对对手意图和能力的不确定性会促使一个国家采取升级行为,但对潜在对手军事战略的不确定性以及对第三方支持水平的不确定性会激励一个国家采取更谨慎的姿态。文章最后反思了不确定性对国家决策影响的学科盲点,并提出了克服这些盲点的建议。
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引用次数: 2
Emulating underdogs: Tactical drones in the Russia-Ukraine war 模仿弱者:俄乌战争中的战术无人机
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-21 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2257964
Kerry Chávez, Ori Swed
ABSTRACTEarly studies on state drone proliferation argued that it would be temperate, constrained by high financial, technical, and infrastructural requisites and fielded according to the logic of scarce, exquisite airpower. While this rationale has held for limited conflicts, the high attrition and massive demand of a total war compelled strong standing armies to follow a different model of adoption: emulating weaker violent nonstate actors leveraging low-cost commercial platforms. The Russia-Ukraine war has captured this trend. Despite earlier expectations of armies maintaining advanced airpower for strategic ends, underdog Ukraine, followed by Russia have developed heavy reliance on commercial drone technologies for tactical aims. Framing this in military and battlefield innovation literature and drawing on studies on commercial drone use among violent nonstate actors, we argue that this constitutes a new trajectory involving mixed military arsenals enhanced with dual-use commercial platforms.KEYWORDS: Dronesunmanned aerial vehiclesinterstate conflictmilitary innovationmodern warfare Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Islamic State is a prime example, but certainly not the only one. Many VNSAs from Houthi rebels, Burmese resistors, Syrian fighters, African insurgents, and Mexican cartels use commercial drones in one, some, or all the ways listed to advance their agendas.
关于国家无人机扩散的早期研究认为,它将是有节制的,受到高财政、技术和基础设施要求的限制,并根据稀缺、精致的空中力量的逻辑进行部署。虽然这种理论适用于有限的冲突,但全面战争的高消耗和巨大需求迫使强大的常备军遵循一种不同的采用模式:模仿较弱的暴力非国家行为体,利用低成本的商业平台。俄乌战争抓住了这一趋势。尽管早些时候的预期是,军队将为战略目的保持先进的空中力量,但处于劣势的乌克兰,以及紧随其后的俄罗斯,已经严重依赖商用无人机技术来实现战术目标。在军事和战场创新文献中构建这一框架,并借鉴对暴力非国家行为者商业无人机使用的研究,我们认为这构成了一个新的轨迹,涉及双重用途商业平台增强的混合军事武器库。关键词:无人机;国家间冲突;军事创新;现代战争披露声明作者未报告潜在的利益冲突。注1伊斯兰国是一个典型的例子,但肯定不是唯一的。许多来自胡塞叛军、缅甸抵抗分子、叙利亚武装分子、非洲叛乱分子和墨西哥贩毒集团的vnsa,都以上述一种、几种或所有方式使用商用无人机来推进他们的议程。
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引用次数: 2
Farewell by the outgoing editor: Publishing research from the Paris attacks to the war against Ukraine 即将卸任的编辑告别:出版从巴黎袭击到乌克兰战争的研究报告
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2254597
Hylke Dijkstra
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引用次数: 0
Roots of Ukrainian resilience and the agency of Ukrainian society before and after Russia’s full-scale invasion 乌克兰复原力的根源和俄罗斯全面入侵前后乌克兰社会的机构
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2258620
Anastasiia Kudlenko
When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Ukrainians did not crumble under the unprecedented attack but showed steely resolve to fight for independence and the right to decide their own fate. In the Western media and scholarly analysis, the Ukrainian resilience is often associated with the leadership of the state, in particular President Zelensky. This article offers a different take on the issue of resilience in war and looks at the value foundations of Ukrainian identity, the decentralized nature of Ukrainian society and the vision of a better future as part of the Euro-Atlantic community to better understand Ukraine’s agency in response to Russia’s invasion. It draws on the original data, collected from interviews of three categories of Ukrainians, affected by the war: refugees, internally displaced people, and those living close to the frontlines.
当俄罗斯在2022年2月24日对乌克兰发动全面入侵时,乌克兰人没有在前所未有的攻击下崩溃,而是表现出了争取独立和决定自己命运的权利的钢铁般的决心。在西方媒体和学术分析中,乌克兰的韧性通常与国家领导层,尤其是泽连斯基总统联系在一起。本文从不同的角度探讨了乌克兰在战争中的复原力问题,并着眼于乌克兰身份认同的价值基础、乌克兰社会的分散性,以及作为欧洲-大西洋共同体一部分的美好未来的愿景,以更好地理解乌克兰应对俄罗斯入侵的机构。它利用了对受战争影响的三类乌克兰人的采访收集的原始数据:难民、国内流离失所者和生活在前线附近的人。
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引用次数: 3
Remember Kabul? Reputation, strategic contexts, and American credibility after the Afghanistan withdrawal 还记得喀布尔吗?阿富汗撤军后的声誉、战略背景和美国信誉
IF 5.9 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1080/13523260.2023.2253406
D.G. Kim, J. Byun, Jiyoung Ko
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引用次数: 0
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Contemporary Security Policy
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