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The diminishing impact of exchange rates on China’s exports 汇率对中国出口的影响正在减弱
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101329
Willem Thorbecke , Chen Chen , Nimesh Salike
China’s exports increased from $62 billion in 1990 to $3.6 trillion in 2022. This surge has generated protectionism abroad. Researchers found that renminbi appreciations in earlier years decreased China’s exports. This paper presents time series and panel data evidence indicating that both real effective and bilateral real exchange rates after the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) no longer affect aggregate exports. It also finds that almost all individual export categories were sensitive to exchange rates before the GFC but that less than half are afterwards. These results imply that, if policymakers in China and the rest of the world want to influence China’s trade, they need to use instruments other than exchange rates.
中国的出口从1990年的620亿美元增加到2022年的3.6万亿美元。这种激增在国外引发了保护主义。研究人员发现,早些年人民币升值降低了中国的出口。本文用时间序列和面板数据证明,2008-2009年全球金融危机(GFC)后的实际有效汇率和双边实际汇率不再影响总出口。报告还发现,几乎所有单独的出口类别在全球金融危机之前都对汇率敏感,但在全球金融危机之后,只有不到一半的出口类别对汇率敏感。这些结果表明,如果中国和世界其他地区的政策制定者想要影响中国的贸易,他们需要使用汇率以外的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Towards sustainable floral business in Japan: Evidence from dynamic demand system between domestic and imported cut flowers 日本花卉产业的可持续发展:来自国内和进口鲜切花动态需求系统的证据
IF 1.2 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101322
Chun-Fu Hsu , Cho-Han Su , Kuo-I Chang
Japan has been addressed the largest market for cut flower imports and consumption in Asia. Since 2000, the floral industry in Japan has faced a decline in production due to an aging workforce and rising costs, while domestic demand for cut flowers has remained stable. The supply-demand gap has been boosted by increasing imports. The import and household consumption survey data from January 2002 to December 2021 and dynamic EC-AIDS model are employed to estimate the expenditure, own-price compensated, and cross-price elasticities between domestic and imported cut flowers in Japan. Our findings show that domestic floral business promotion policy enacted since 2014 had no significant impacts on structural change of demand between imported and domestic cut flowers. The empirical results indicate that domestic cut flowers in Japan are substitutes for those from major import source countries, though the degree of substitutions are limited. Notably, not only the complementary relationship of orchids but also an expenditure elasticity with 2.62 of Chrysanthemum between Japan and Taiwan, suggesting a greater sustainable potential in the Japanese Market.
日本已成为亚洲最大的鲜切花进口和消费市场。自2000年以来,由于劳动力老龄化和成本上升,日本花卉产业面临产量下降,而国内对切花的需求保持稳定。不断增加的进口加剧了供需缺口。采用2002年1月至2021年12月的进口和居民消费调查数据和动态EC-AIDS模型对日本国内和进口切花的消费支出、自有价格补偿和交叉价格弹性进行了估算。研究发现,2014年以来出台的国内花卉产业促进政策对进口和国内切花需求的结构性变化没有显著影响。实证结果表明,日本国内鲜切花对主要进口来源国鲜切花具有替代作用,但替代程度有限。值得注意的是,日本和台湾之间不仅有兰花的互补关系,而且菊花的消费弹性为2.62,表明日本市场具有更大的可持续潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Do lifelong experiences of land prices affect homeownership in Japan? 在日本,土地价格的终身经历会影响房屋所有权吗?
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101320
Kiichi Tokuoka
Using Japanese household data, this study tests the hypothesis that experiencing growth in land prices over a lifetime influences homeownership. To test this experience hypothesis, this study calculates the lifelong weighted average of real land price growth while estimating a parameter that determines the shape of the weight function. The study then corroborates the results using US data. The results — using both Japanese and US data — support the hypothesis and are consistent with the belief channel; that is, experiencing price growth affects homeownership by influencing expectations of returns from housing investment.
利用日本家庭数据,本研究检验了一个假设,即在一生中经历土地价格的增长会影响房屋所有权。为了验证这一经验假设,本研究计算了实际土地价格增长的终身加权平均值,同时估计了一个决定权重函数形状的参数。然后,该研究用美国的数据证实了结果。研究结果——使用了日本和美国的数据——支持这一假设,并与信念通道一致;也就是说,经历价格增长通过影响住房投资回报的预期来影响住房拥有率。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of welfare receipt on well-being: Evidence from older people in Japan 福利收入对幸福感的影响:来自日本老年人的证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101321
Kodai Matsumoto
The purpose of this study is to verify whether receiving public assistance affects the well-being of the older people. When socially nondependency norms have formed, receiving public assistance may reduce well-being. The study focuses on older people in Japan, where public assistance is minimal. Based on the findings, for individuals aged 65 years and older, the negative impact is weak and often not statistically significant. However, welfare benefits have a positive effect on elderly men while exerting a negative effect on elderly women. Moreover, regional differences are found among the working-age population, but not among the elderly.
本研究的目的是验证接受公共援助是否会影响老年人的福祉。当社会不依赖规范形成后,接受公共援助可能会降低幸福感。这项研究的重点是日本的老年人,那里的公共援助很少。根据研究结果,对于65岁及以上的人来说,负面影响很弱,通常没有统计学意义。然而,福利对老年男性有积极作用,而对老年女性有消极作用。此外,在劳动年龄人口中发现了地区差异,但在老年人中却没有。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign exchange liberalization and exchange rate exposure: Firm-level evidence of the Japanese Automobile Industry 外汇自由化与汇率风险:日本汽车工业的企业层面证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101312
Teru Nishikawa , Kiyotaka Sato
This paper empirically examines the effect of the drastic amendment of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA) in 1998 on the exchange rate exposure of ten Japanese automobile firms. By conducting panel estimation using the firm-level explanatory variables constructed originally, we find that (1) the degree of automobile firms’ exchange rate exposure increased significantly during the post-1998 FEFTA amendment period; (2) however, more profitable automobile firms with higher ROE and facing larger exchange rate volatility could reduce their exposures after the 1998 FEFTA amendment because they could conduct efficient operational hedging through expanding supply chains and more readily utilize efficient hedging instruments to reduce group-wide foreign exchange risk; (3) more sales in and exports to Southeast Asian countries significantly reduced automobile firms’ exposures, because they tended to invoice their exports to Southeast Asian countries not in USD but in the yen. Our findings would be insightful for Asian economies that move gradually toward foreign exchange liberalization. Efficient operational and financial hedging, as well as invoice currency choice, significantly affect the degree of exposure after foreign exchange liberalization.
本文实证考察了1998年《外汇及对外贸易法》的大幅修订对10家日本汽车企业汇率风险敞口的影响。利用最初构建的企业层面解释变量进行面板估计,我们发现(1)1998年后自由贸易协定修订期间,汽车企业的汇率风险敞口程度显著增加;(2)然而,利润较高、净资产收益率较高、汇率波动较大的汽车企业在1998年FEFTA修订后可以减少其风险敞口,因为它们可以通过扩大供应链进行有效的运营对冲,更容易利用有效的对冲工具来降低集团范围内的外汇风险;(3)对东南亚国家的销售和出口增加显著降低了汽车企业的风险敞口,因为汽车企业倾向于以日元而不是美元开具对东南亚国家的出口发票。我们的研究结果将对逐渐走向外汇自由化的亚洲经济体具有深刻的见解。有效的操作和财务对冲以及发票货币选择显著影响外汇自由化后的风险敞口程度。
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引用次数: 0
The knowledge transfer patterns of multinational firms: The evidence from Korean firm-level analysis 跨国公司的知识转移模式:来自韩国企业层面分析的证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101313
Hyunjung Cho , Gahee Bak , Junyun Kim , Hongshik Lee
This paper examines one of the theoretical hypotheses of Keller and Yeaple (2013) in order to investigate how trade costs and the level of firm-level knowledge intensity of a parent firm affect its knowledge transfer to foreign affiliates. Specifically, we focus on Keller and Yeaple (2013)’s second prediction that the share of intra-firm imports from the parent declines in trade costs, but this decline is weaker in knowledge-intensive settings. Using a panel of Korean manufacturing firms over 2007–2018, we separate knowledge transfer into (a) knowledge-embedded intra-firm trade and (b) direct communication (human resource secondments). We then analyze the role of trade costs and knowledge intensity on each channel via fixed effects and dynamic panel estimations. We find that trade costs significantly reduce intra-firm exports of knowledge-embedded inputs; however, a higher knowledge intensity mitigates this effect. On the other hand, trade costs and knowledge intensity do not exert a significant influence on direct communication.
本文考察了Keller和yeapple(2013)的理论假设之一,以研究母公司的贸易成本和公司层面的知识强度水平如何影响其向外国子公司的知识转移。具体而言,我们关注Keller和yeapple(2013)的第二个预测,即企业内部从母公司进口的份额会降低贸易成本,但这种下降在知识密集型环境中较弱。通过对2007-2018年韩国制造业企业的调查,我们将知识转移分为(a)知识嵌入型企业内部贸易和(b)直接沟通(人力资源借调)。然后,我们通过固定效应和动态面板估计分析了贸易成本和知识强度对各渠道的作用。研究发现,贸易成本显著降低了企业内部知识投入的出口;然而,较高的知识强度会减轻这种影响。另一方面,贸易成本和知识强度对直接沟通没有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “A nowcasting model of industrial production using alternative data and machine learning approaches” [Jpn. World Econ. 71 (2024) 101271] “使用替代数据和机器学习方法的工业生产临近预测模型”的勘误表[Jpn。世界经济,71 (2024)101271 [j]
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101297
Kakuho Furukawa , Ryohei Hisano , Yukio Minoura , Tomoyuki Yagi
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引用次数: 0
Regret aversion in Japanese and U.S. stock markets: Analyzing the effects of market conditions 日本和美国股市的后悔厌恶情绪:分析市场状况的影响
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101311
Somyung Kim , Kiyool Ohk
This study examines the effects of investors’ regret aversion and regret premium on investment decision-making and stock returns in the Japanese and U.S. stock markets from a behavioral finance perspective. Using regret variables, we demonstrate that regret aversion significantly impacts asset pricing. Our empirical results show that investors demand a higher regret premium when holding high-regret assets, and this relationship persists even after controlling for various firm characteristics. By analyzing market states and dynamics, we find that regret aversion is particularly strong in down markets, though its influence weakens in up markets. Market dynamics analysis reveals that regret premiums are most pronounced during simultaneous upward market trends. Robustness tests using cumulative returns and industry-adjusted short-term return reversals further confirm the significant influence of regret on stock returns. Additionally, our analysis of irrational investor behavior, including the disposition effect and psychological price barriers, shows that regret aversion is more pronounced in the context of unrealized capital losses and when asset prices deviate significantly from psychological price barriers. This study provides comprehensive insights into the impact of regret aversion and market dynamics on investor behavior and asset pricing, challenging traditional finance theories grounded in the assumption of rational decision-making.
本研究从行为金融学的角度考察了投资者的后悔厌恶和后悔溢价对日本和美国股市投资决策和股票收益的影响。利用后悔变量,我们证明了后悔厌恶显著影响资产定价。我们的实证结果表明,投资者持有高后悔资产时要求更高的后悔溢价,即使在控制了各种公司特征后,这种关系仍然存在。通过分析市场状态和动态,我们发现后悔厌恶在下跌市场中特别强烈,尽管它的影响在上涨市场中减弱。市场动态分析表明,遗憾溢价在同时上升的市场趋势中最为明显。使用累积收益和行业调整短期收益逆转的稳健性检验进一步证实了后悔对股票收益的显著影响。此外,我们对非理性投资者行为(包括处置效应和心理价格障碍)的分析表明,在未实现资本损失和资产价格明显偏离心理价格障碍的情况下,后悔厌恶更为明显。本研究对后悔厌恶和市场动态对投资者行为和资产定价的影响提供了全面的见解,挑战了基于理性决策假设的传统金融理论。
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引用次数: 0
Does SME policy enhance the adjustment of trade credit? Evidence from a revision of the Subcontract Act in Japan 中小企业政策是否促进了贸易信贷的调整?来自日本《分包法》修订的证据
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101310
Daisuke Tsuruta
In this paper, we examine whether small and medium enterprises (SMEs) face severe constraints in adjusting their trade receivables by focusing on the 2016 revision of the Subcontract Act of Japan. Small businesses typically have weaker bargaining power than their customers because they are likely to depend on certain customers. Accordingly, many small businesses face severe constraints in the adjustment of their trade receivables. The Subcontract Act prohibits customer firms from receiving trade credit from small businesses over the long term, and this was enforced more strictly after 2016 following a regulatory revision. This made it easier for small businesses to adjust their trade receivables if their level was considered excessive, serving to enhance the speed of adjustment. We find that trade receivables decreased by an average of 2.1 days following the policy change for the main target firms of the Subcontract Act. Our results also show that small businesses could more rapidly adjust their trade receivables than large firms, both before and after the revision. On this basis, we conclude that while the policy effects on the level of trade receivables are significant, those on the adjustment are not.
本文以2016年日本《分包法》的修订为重点,考察了中小企业在调整贸易应收账款方面是否面临严重约束。小企业通常比他们的客户有更弱的议价能力,因为他们可能依赖于某些客户。因此,许多小企业在调整其贸易应收款方面面临严重的限制。《分包法》禁止客户公司长期从小企业获得贸易信贷,2016年监管修订后,这一规定得到了更严格的执行。这使小企业在认为应收帐款数额过高的情况下更容易调整其应收帐款,从而加快调整的速度。我们发现,对于分包法案的主要目标公司,在政策变化后,贸易应收账款平均减少了2.1天。我们的研究结果还表明,无论是在修订前后,小企业都能比大公司更快地调整其贸易应收账款。在此基础上,我们得出结论,虽然政策对应收账款水平的影响是显著的,但对调整的影响并不显著。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of exclusive subcontracting on technological innovation: The case of Korean SMEs 独家分包对技术创新的影响:以韩国中小企业为例
IF 1.3 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101309
Raehyung Lee , Jinki Hong , Duk Hee Lee , Jay Y. Ohm
Does subcontracting with large firms promote the innovation endeavours of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)? This study addresses this question using panel data from 22,528 observations of Korean SMEs across all industries from 2015 to 2019. We tested the hypotheses individually for five sub-industries based on Pavitt’s (1984, 1990) technological trajectory classification. The findings indicate that exclusive subcontracting negatively affects innovation endeavours, specifically in the supplier-dominated, science-based, and assembly/processing industries. By examining SMEs both as a whole and within specific industries, this study provides new evidence on the relationship between exclusivity and innovation, expanding on prior research that focused on data from limited sectors. Specially, the findings have implications for the innovation strategies of firms, industries, and countries such as South Korea, where SMEs heavily rely on transactions with large firms. These findings offer new quantitative evidence for sectoral innovation systems, emphasising different innovation strategies for each industry.
与大公司分包合同是否促进了中小企业的创新努力?本研究使用了2015年至2019年对韩国所有行业的22528家中小企业进行观察的面板数据来解决这个问题。基于Pavitt(1984,1990)的技术轨迹分类,我们分别对五个子行业的假设进行了检验。研究结果表明,排他性分包对创新努力产生负面影响,特别是在供应商主导、科学为基础和装配/加工行业。通过对整个行业和特定行业内的中小企业进行调查,本研究为排他性和创新之间的关系提供了新的证据,扩展了先前专注于有限行业数据的研究。特别是,研究结果对企业、行业和韩国等国家的创新战略具有启示意义,在这些国家,中小企业严重依赖与大公司的交易。这些发现为部门创新系统提供了新的定量证据,强调了每个行业不同的创新战略。
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引用次数: 0
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Japan and the World Economy
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