Japan and the World Economy最新文献

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Ex-ante and ex-post evaluation of zombie firms arising from the EAS program during the COVID-19 pandemic: A study of Japanese SMEs 在 COVID-19 大流行期间，对 EAS 计划所产生的僵尸企业进行事前和事后评估：日本中小企业研究

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101308

Akira Fukuda , Isamu Yamamoto

This study provides an ex-ante and ex-post evaluation of the Employment Adjustment Subsidy (EAS) that the Japanese government extended to unprecedented levels during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using unique monthly data from firm-level surveys, we investigate the types of firms that applied for the EAS and the evolution of their subsequent performance. A key contribution of our study is that we provide an ex-post evaluation of the EAS on firm performance for approximately two years during the pandemic. As in previous studies, we confirm that majority of the firms that applied for the EAS were not zombies before the pandemic. However, their subsequent sales were much lower than those of non-applicant firms, even during the economic recovery period. This feature was conspicuous in 2021, specifically for small-scale firms in troubled sectors, unless they received extra support. The results suggest that the initial large-scale subsidy was unsuccessful in preventing the zombification of troubled firms during the pandemic.

本研究对日本政府在新冠肺炎大流行期间扩大到前所未有的水平的就业调整补贴（EAS）进行了事前和事后评价。我们使用来自公司层面调查的独特月度数据，调查了申请EAS的公司类型及其后续绩效的演变。我们研究的一个关键贡献是，我们对疫情期间大约两年的企业绩效进行了事后评估。与以前的研究一样，我们证实，申请EAS的大多数公司在大流行之前都不是僵尸公司。然而，即使在经济复苏期间，它们的后续销售额也远低于未申请的公司。这一特征在2021年非常明显，特别是对于陷入困境的小型企业，除非它们得到额外的支持。结果表明，最初的大规模补贴未能在大流行期间防止陷入困境的公司僵尸化。

引用次数: 0

Global value chains and exchange rate pass-through into the import prices of Japanese industries 全球价值链和汇率传导到日本产业的进口价格

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101299

Fabien Rondeau , Yushi Yoshida

With internationally fragmented processes of production via global value chains, value-added components of a country’s export include the importer’s contributions as well as that of exporters. The exchange rate sensitivity of export price reflects these value-added components. We examine the effect of value-added contributions of exporters and importers on the degree of exchange rate pass-through by focusing on the Japanese import prices by industries. Our results show that exchange rate pass-through increases for industries with a higher contribution of exporting countries’ value added and for industries with a lower contribution of the importing country’s value added. The differentials in value added among industries help explain the dynamics of exchange rate pass-through at the industry level.

在通过全球价值链进行国际分工的生产过程中，一国出口的增值部分包括进口商和出口商的贡献。出口价格的汇率敏感性反映了这些增值部分。我们通过关注日本各行业的进口价格，研究了出口商和进口商的增值贡献对汇率传递程度的影响。我们的研究结果表明，对于出口国附加值贡献率较高的行业和进口国附加值贡献率较低的行业，汇率传递会增加。行业间附加值的差异有助于解释行业层面的汇率传递动态。

引用次数: 0

Impact of the 2011 earthquake on the real estate market in Tokyo 2011年地震对东京房地产市场的影响

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101298

Naoto Mikawa

After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, seismic activity in Japan changed drastically, affecting people’s response to earthquakes even outside the affected area. This change may be heterogeneous depending on where they live, especially if the area is prone to seismic hazards. To measure seismic hazards, the nature of the ground on which a building stands was used as a source of people’s assessment of disaster. Using real estate transaction data and the hedonic approach, this study investigates the heterogeneous impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on the real estate market in undamaged areas. The analysis of ground classification revealed that the Great East Japan Earthquake led to about 3 % reduction in both land prices and housing prices in the lowland areas in the Tokyo Special Zone, where ground was soft and experienced stronger shaking compared with other areas. The reduction lasted for 5 years before recovering to the pre-disaster level. However, the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake did not impact land prices in the Tokyo Special Zone.

2011年东日本大地震后，日本的地震活动发生了巨大变化，甚至影响了受灾地区以外的人们对地震的反应。这种变化可能是不均匀的，这取决于他们居住的地方，特别是如果该地区容易发生地震灾害。为了测量地震的危险性，建筑物所处地面的性质被用作人们评估灾害的一个来源。本文利用房地产交易数据和享乐主义方法，研究了东日本大地震对未受灾地区房地产市场的异质影响。地面分类分析表明，东日本大地震导致东京特区低地地区的地价和房价下降了约3 %，这些地区的地面较软，比其他地区震动更大。这种减少持续了5年才恢复到灾前水平。然而，2016年熊本地震并没有影响东京特区的地价。

引用次数: 0

Investigating how inflation expectations affect precautionary wealth 调查通胀预期如何影响预防性财富

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2025-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101295

Tomohide Mineyama , Kiichi Tokuoka

This study examines how inflation expectations affect precautionary wealth by focusing on the period of zero or low-interest rates in Japan and using Japanese household survey data during this period. The key finding of this paper is that experienced inflation as a proxy for inflation expectations has a positive impact on the target ratio of precautionary wealth to permanent income. This is consistent with the prediction of the buffer stock (Carroll, 1997) that given the nominal interest rate (as has been observed in Japan), higher inflation expectations raise the target ratio when households expect higher inflation to translate into their nominal income in a limited way. This study also confirms that actual liquid wealth gradually converges to the target level of precautionary wealth over the years, which is consistent with the implications of the buffer stock model.

本研究通过关注日本零利率或低利率时期，并使用这一时期的日本家庭调查数据，考察了通胀预期如何影响预防性财富。本文的主要发现是，经验通胀作为通胀预期的代表，对预防性财富与永久收入的目标比率有积极影响。这与缓冲存量（Carroll, 1997）的预测是一致的，即给定名义利率（正如在日本观察到的那样），当家庭期望较高的通货膨胀以有限的方式转化为名义收入时，较高的通货膨胀预期会提高目标比率。本研究还证实，实际流动财富多年来逐渐收敛于预防性财富的目标水平，这与缓冲库存模型的含义是一致的。

引用次数: 0

Effect of income-increasing deduction in personal income tax on the burden reduction and income redistribution: Evidence from Japan 个人所得税增税扣除对减负和收入再分配的影响：来自日本的证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101296

Taro Ohno , Tomotsugu Imahori , Daizo Kojima

Deduction system is an important element for fulfilling the purposes of the personal income taxation. Designing an ideal system of deductions requires understanding the burden reduction effect and its impact on income redistribution due to taxes. In this study, we use Japanese household microdata (1994–2019) to empirically evaluate the burden reduction and redistributive effects of income-increasing deductions on personal income tax. In addition, we separate the changes in the redistribution effect of the deductions into system and non-system reforms. The higher the income bracket, the more effective the deductions in reducing the tax burden due to the impact of the income-increasing part of the deductions. The burden reduction effect of deductions is found to have declined over the sample period of 25 years, mainly due to the impact of system reforms. Moreover, Unlike the other parts that enhance the redistributive effects, the income-increasing part of deductions reduces the redistributive effects.

扣除制度是实现个人所得税征收目的的重要组成部分。设计一个理想的扣除制度，需要了解负担减轻效果及其对税收收入再分配的影响。本研究使用日本家庭微观数据（1994-2019年），实证评估了增收抵扣对个人所得税的减负和再分配效应。此外，我们将扣除的再分配效果的变化分为制度改革和非制度改革。收入等级越高，由于收入增加部分的影响，减少税负的效果越好。在25年的样本期内，扣除的减负效果有所下降，这主要是由于制度改革的影响。此外，与其他提高再分配效应的部分不同，扣除的收入增加部分降低了再分配效应。

引用次数: 0

The anchoring of inflation expectations in Japan: A learning-approach perspective 日本通胀预期的锚定：一个学习方法的视角

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101293

Yoshihiko Hogen, Ryoichi Okuma

This paper uses a learning model to jointly estimate long-term inflation expectations and the degree of anchoring in Japan since the 1960s. We find that in the 1970s, Japan had higher long-term inflation expectations than the U.S. during the first oil shock, but much lower inflation expectations after the second oil shock. This contrast between Japan and the U.S. is consistent with many studies that attribute the differences in the inflation dynamics between Japan and the U.S. to the monetary policy stance in Japan during the 1970s and early 1980s. Long-term inflation expectations fell to around 2 percent in the late 1980s and remained anchored until the mid-1990s. They fell below 2 percent in the late 1990s, resulting in a low degree of anchoring until the early 2010s. Since early 2013, inflation expectations have risen but are not yet been anchored to the target. Further VAR analysis suggests that declining markups could be a primary source for hindering the anchoring of inflation expectations in Japan.

本文采用学习模型对日本20世纪60年代以来的长期通胀预期和锚定程度进行了联合估计。我们发现，在20世纪70年代，日本在第一次石油危机期间的长期通胀预期高于美国，但在第二次石油危机之后，通胀预期要低得多。日本和美国之间的这种对比与许多研究一致，这些研究将日本和美国之间通货膨胀动态的差异归因于日本在20世纪70年代和80年代初的货币政策立场。长期通胀预期在上世纪80年代末降至2%左右，并一直稳定到90年代中期。在20世纪90年代末，它们跌至2%以下，导致低程度的锚定，直到2010年代初。自2013年初以来，通胀预期有所上升，但尚未稳定在目标水平。进一步的VAR分析表明，加价下降可能是阻碍日本通胀预期稳定的主要原因。

引用次数: 0

Determinants of family firm IPO underpricing: Evidence from Japan 家族企业IPO定价过低的决定因素：来自日本的证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101294

Kenta Funaoka , Zhihua Yao

This study analyzes 94 firms that were listed on the JASDAQ between 2015 and 2021, with a specific focus on identifying the determinants of underpricing in family firms during their initial public offering (IPO). In Japan, over 90 % of enterprises are family-owned, with even half of the publicly listed companies falling into this category. The findings revealed that, ceteris paribus, firms with founding CEOs experienced less underpricing at the time of going public compared to those without. This difference was more significant in companies with higher management ownership and a higher ratio of external directors. These results emphasize the importance of strong governance structures in reducing underpricing for family firms during their IPOs.

本研究分析了2015年至2021年间在JASDAQ上市的94家公司，特别关注于确定家族企业首次公开发行（IPO）期间定价过低的决定因素。在日本，超过90% %的企业是家族企业，甚至有一半的上市公司属于这一类。研究结果显示，在其他条件不变的情况下，有创始人ceo的公司在上市时遭遇的定价过低的情况要比没有创始人ceo的公司少。这种差异在管理层持股比例较高、外部董事比例较高的公司中更为显著。这些结果强调了强有力的治理结构对于减少家族企业ipo期间定价过低的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Endogenous decisions on acceptable worker-job mismatch level and the impact on workers’ performance 关于可接受的工人与工作不匹配程度的内生决定及其对工人绩效的影响

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101283

Izumi Yokoyama , Takuya Obara , Arisa Shichijo Kiyomoto , Kaichi Kusada , Kazuma Edamura , Tomohiko Inui

This study examines the endogeneity of a worker’s acceptable level of job mismatch and its impact on worker performance. First, we construct a theoretical model that depicts the tendency of a potential worker to take a job offer if the firm is “attractive” for some reason, even when he or she knows that their personality does not align with the firm’s characteristics. According to this model, a strong tendency for this behavior yields a positive relationship between a worker’s acceptable mismatch level and the firm’s attractive characteristics. Given the positive relationship, an instrumental variable estimation confirms that higher mismatch significantly lowers worker performance. Since “attractive” firms tend to be generally large firms with a major influence on the economy, the lowered performance due to these mismatches can hinder economic strength and hamper national growth. Resolving this issue may avoid further losses.

本研究探讨了工人可接受的工作不匹配程度的内生性及其对工人绩效的影响。首先，我们构建了一个理论模型，该模型描述了一种倾向，即如果公司出于某种原因 "有吸引力"，潜在员工即使知道自己的个性与公司的特点不符，也会接受工作机会。根据该模型，这种行为的强烈倾向会在工人可接受的不匹配程度与公司的吸引力特征之间产生正相关关系。鉴于这种正相关关系，工具变量估计证实，较高的错配程度会显著降低工人的绩效。由于 "有吸引力 "的企业一般都是对经济有重大影响的大型企业，这些错配导致的绩效降低会阻碍经济实力和国家增长。解决这一问题可以避免进一步的损失。

引用次数: 0

The impact of news shock of the openings or expansions of large-scale semiconductor plants on local labour market in Japan 大型半导体工厂开工或扩建的新闻冲击对日本当地劳动力市场的影响

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101281

Yamaguchi Akira

This study investigates the causal effect of news shock of openings or expansions of large-scale semiconductor plants in Japan on local labor market, especially measured by new job opening ratio, using DiD (Difference-in-Difference) applied to prefecture-level data. The results shows news shock of large-scale openings or expansion of semiconductor plants increase new job opening ratio by 0.05 - 0.08pt significantly. To address the endogeneity problems arising from firms’ site selection, I matched control group consist of prefectures where news about the openings or expansion of large semiconductor plants were announced but the amounts of investment were relatively small compared to the treatment group and run DiD analysis, and finally obtained the similar robust results. Furthermore, it has been recently pointed out in econometrics that the heterogeneity of treatment effects in a TWFE (Two Way Fixed Effect or Staggered DiD) analysis in which the timings of treatments differ, can lead to biased estimator. The similar robust results were also obtained in the analysis using CS (Callaway and Sant’Anna) DiD, a type of DiD method that overcomes this bias problem. This paper is in the literature which analyzes the impact of large-scale plant openings (million dollar plant openings) on the local labor market, and contributes to the accumulation of knowledge in this field, which is surprisingly scarce in Japan.

本研究利用 DiD（差分法）对都道府县数据进行分析，研究了日本大规模半导体工厂开工或扩建的新闻冲击对当地劳动力市场的因果效应，尤其是以新职位空缺率为衡量指标。结果表明，半导体工厂大规模开工或扩建的新闻冲击会显著增加新职位空缺率 0.05 - 0.08pt。为了解决企业选址带来的内生性问题，笔者将公布了大型半导体工厂开工或扩建消息但投资额相对较小的都道府县与处理组进行匹配，并进行 DiD 分析，最终得到了类似的稳健结果。此外，计量经济学最近指出，在处理时间不同的 TWFE（双向固定效应或交错 DiD）分析中，处理效应的异质性会导致估计值的偏差。使用 CS（Callaway 和 Sant'Anna）DiD 方法进行分析也得到了类似的稳健结果，CS DiD 是一种能克服这种偏差问题的 DiD 方法。本文属于分析大规模工厂开业（百万美元工厂开业）对当地劳动力市场影响的文献，有助于积累这一领域的知识。

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引用次数: 0

Household spending responses to two-time COVID-19 payments 家庭支出对两次 COVID-19 付款的反应

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101282

Kozo Ueda

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Japanese government provided special cash payments (SCPs) multiple times. This study aims to estimate the marginal propensity to spend, a proxy for the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), to these income shocks using detailed bank transaction data. Our findings indicate that the MPC is stable at around 0.2 for both the first wave of SCPs launched in mid-2020 and the second wave of SCPs provided from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022. The MPC tends to increase as individuals become less wealthy, more liquidity constrained, or the number of family members is larger.

在 COVID-19 大流行期间，日本政府多次提供特别现金支付（SCP）。本研究旨在利用详细的银行交易数据估算这些收入冲击的边际消费倾向，即边际消费倾向（MPC）的替代值。我们的研究结果表明，无论是 2020 年年中推出的第一波小额信贷支持计划，还是 2021 年底至 2022 年初推出的第二波小额信贷支持计划，边际消费倾向都稳定在 0.2 左右。随着个人财富越少、流动性越紧张或家庭成员越多，MPC 趋于增加。

引用次数: 0

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