Japan and the World Economy最新文献

During the COVID-19 pandemic, remote work suddenly attracted attention. This paper focuses on inter-firm relations, as the costs and benefits of introducing remote work are likely to differ depending on the firms’ relationships with other firms. We combine our unique survey on the responses of Japanese manufacturers or wholesalers to the COVID-19 pandemic with transaction relation data. We find that firms sourcing from more suppliers before the pandemic are significantly more likely to adopt remote work during the pandemic even after controlling for firm size. Wholesalers selling to more customers appear to be less likely to shift to remote work.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the simulated effects of carbon pricing on South Korea's industrial sector by using carbon pricing scenarios. The estimation results show that carbon taxation is highly effective to reduce carbon emissions of industrial sector only when the changes of energy mix take place. If the energy mix remain unchanged, the level of carbon tax should be higher than 60,000 Korean won (USD 54.55) to achieve the NDC goal of 14 % emissions reduction in industrial sector. In addition, the reduction in industrial production due to the carbon tax is estimated to be relatively small when substitution between energy and other production factors is possible. This paper proposes policies that can induce changes in the energy mix are very necessary in order to decarbonize and strengthen the competitiveness of industrial sector.

Transitioning to a low-carbon economy can take various forms, one of which is structural change, particularly tertiarization. When the economic structure shifts from being dominated by sectors that rely heavily on fossil fuels to one that does not, the economy can become less carbon-intensive. The relocation of Indonesia's capital city from Jakarta to East Kalimantan is an example of how a traditionally resource-intensive regional economy may respond to the sudden emergence of a large-scale service sector, in this case, the government sector. This paper investigates how the capital city relocation may affect the destination region's economic structure using an inter-regional computable general equilibrium modeling. The model considers not only how different economic sectors are interconnected but also how sectors within one province are interconnected with sectors in other provinces. According to the findings, the relocation of the capital city increases the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the destination region (KalTim) by a massive amount (22%) while decreasing the GRDP of Jakarta (the old capital) by a moderate amount (7%). However, because the expanding sector is relatively high-skill intensive, it tends to produce skill-biased increases in real wages. As a result, the destination region (Kaltim) undergoes massive structural change as its service sector share increases by 12%, a change historically comparable in two decades. In addition, Kaltim's carbon emission intensity decreases by 18% due to this large-scale tertiarization. The analysis has demonstrated how and to what extent the relocation of Indonesia's capital city may help the province diversify from a natural resource-intensive economy to a more service-oriented and low-carbon economy.

This paper empirically investigates the contributory factors to forced outage declarations of power plants through a survival analysis model with recurrent events. Using plant-level data in the Philippines, we find that higher reserve margins, higher share capacity (a measure of concentration), and the number of planned outages and days since the last maintenance (preventive maintenance indicators) reduce the risk of forced outages. On the other hand, an increase in the use rate (a measure of the intensity of power plant utilization) and geothermal, solar, and biodiesel plants correlate positively to more forced outages. Focusing on episodes where outages were disproportionately higher in the past decade— we find that thinning reserve margin correlates significantly to forced outage incidence. We also find that a higher share of a power firm’s capacity to the system’s total dependable capacity contributes to lowering the risk of forced outages.

Using the lens of a medium scale DSGE model, we analyze macroeconomic effects of Japan’s unconventional monetary policy which is known as Qualitative and Quantitative Easing (QQE). Our focus is on the bond market. The model features: (i) commercial bank’s demand for excess reserve in response to liquidity risk and (ii) linkage among central bank, commercial banks and the government via government bonds and bank reserve. We simulate the policy effects of a quantitative easing (QE) shock and a negative shock to the interest rate on excess reserve (IOER). The QE multiplier for real GDP is 1.94 and it has substantial effect on lowering the bond yield in line with the policy target of QQE. On the other hand, an IOER cut has qualitatively similar effects on the real and financial sectors but quantitatively its effect is of second order importance. In light of these policy simulations, we evaluate Japan’s recent yield curve control policy.

In macroeconomics, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is an old, but new controversial question that has been debated for many years. The controversy naturally arises if analytical frameworks, sample periods, or targeted countries are different. However, it sometimes arises, even when using similar analytical frameworks and sample periods. The purpose of this study is to explore whether revisions to the GDP data series are a source of the controversy in Japan. Since the mid-1990s, the Japanese economy has remained stuck in a liquidity trap where interest rates have fallen to zero. However, not only has the cumulative fiscal deficit increased to an unprecedented level, but many structural problems have also emerged. Under these circumstances, it is unclear whether the fiscal policy has worked effectively in the Japanese economy. When a reduced-form equation or VAR model was estimated, the empirical findings were quite different depending on GDP benchmark year we used in the analysis. When benchmark year 2011 was used, fiscal expenditure was effective under ultralow interest rates. In contrast, when benchmark year 2015 was used, it was not effective, especially since around 2010, even under ultra-low interest rates. This implies that in Japan, the effectiveness of fiscal policy must be carefully interpreted, noting which GDP benchmark year is used in the analysis.

We consider conglomerate mergers using the Google/Fitbit case as an example. First, summarizing the importance of conglomerate merger control and the current enforcement standards for such mergers by competition laws, we briefly describe a review of the Google/Fitbit merger by the Japan Fair Trade Commission. Next, we explain the background of the merger and introduce Chen et al. (2022), who theoretically discuss a cross-market merger by considering the Google/Fitbit merger. Finally, we discuss the implications of Chen et al. (2022) for controlling conglomerate mergers. Specifically, personalized pricing based on data analytics can be a foreclosure device; in particular, merger-specific efficiencies can foster market foreclosure.

Antitrust investigations in the mobile app economy often require a definition of the relevant market of mobile apps and the evaluation of their market power. However, existing antitrust tools face significant challenges due to the non-price nature of mobile apps with multiple revenue sources, two competition margins at the mobile OS and mobile app levels, and the switching costs involved in the choice of mobile OSs. In this paper, we provide a description of the mobile app economy, including its essential components, players, and characteristics, and identify the challenges currently observed in antitrust investigations. We propose a model for mobile app users and advertisers that can address these issues and suggest a method for defining the relevant market of mobile apps and evaluating their market power, which is adaptable to markets with zero-priced products or multiple revenue sources beyond mobile apps.

This study analyzes the state-dependent effect of the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s intervention in stock markets from 2013 to 2017. A causal inference on such intervention is difficult because of the self-selective behavior of central banks. To address this problem, I apply the propensity score method in a time series context, exploiting stock price information of a single day. The key finding is that the effects are state-dependent and stronger during market downturns.