Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-20DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101344
Min Gyu Lee
This study investigates the effectiveness of Korea's fiscal policy for economic stabilization, focusing on state dependency. Using the Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2013)’s model, the analysis addresses short-term government expenditure data by components and identifies forecast errors to capture unexpected expenditure changes. Results show that fiscal policy is more effective in slack, with a higher multiplier effect in slack than in boom. Unexpected government expenditure shocks are more impactful than anticipated changes. Among components, government investment expenditure yields the highest multiplier effect, with direct government purchases proving the most effective, surpassing unity in impact compared to other types of expenditure.
{"title":"The macroeconomic impact of fiscal policies reflecting state dependency: The case of Korea","authors":"Min Gyu Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the effectiveness of Korea's fiscal policy for economic stabilization, focusing on state dependency. Using the Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2013)’s model, the analysis addresses short-term government expenditure data by components and identifies forecast errors to capture unexpected expenditure changes. Results show that fiscal policy is more effective in slack, with a higher multiplier effect in slack than in boom. Unexpected government expenditure shocks are more impactful than anticipated changes. Among components, government investment expenditure yields the highest multiplier effect, with direct government purchases proving the most effective, surpassing unity in impact compared to other types of expenditure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101344"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145885127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-16DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101342
Atsushi Inoue , Ryuichi Tanaka
This study investigated the effects of bullying victimization on cognitive, school engagement, and friendship outcomes using panel data collected from elementary school students in a Japanese city. Employing a value-added model that controls for prior outcomes, our findings revealed that bullying victimization significantly impairs both cognitive and school engagement and weakens friendship formation. Furthermore, a high prevalence of bullying victimization within the classroom was found to negatively impact cognitive outcomes in subsequent years. These findings underscore the importance of effective school bullying prevention in fostering human and social capital among school-aged children.
{"title":"The effects of school bullying victimization on cognitive, school engagement, and friendship outcomes","authors":"Atsushi Inoue , Ryuichi Tanaka","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101342","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101342","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigated the effects of bullying victimization on cognitive, school engagement, and friendship outcomes using panel data collected from elementary school students in a Japanese city. Employing a value-added model that controls for prior outcomes, our findings revealed that bullying victimization significantly impairs both cognitive and school engagement and weakens friendship formation. Furthermore, a high prevalence of bullying victimization within the classroom was found to negatively impact cognitive outcomes in subsequent years. These findings underscore the importance of effective school bullying prevention in fostering human and social capital among school-aged children.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101342"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145841930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-01-05DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2026.101345
Nikolas Tromp , Jeremiah Richey
This study explores the impact of sample selection bias on estimates of gender wage gaps among young workers in South Korea. It uses data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) and applies two wage imputation methods to correct for selection into full-time, regular employment. Specifically, it estimates the wage offers of those not in full employment using wages from proximate years and a semi-parametric reweighting method. The findings show that ignoring sample selection bias causes wage offers to be overestimated, particularly for women, as those with lower wage offers are more likely to opt out full employment. Consequently, selection adjustments increase wage gaps in both 2001 and 2017. Positive selection weakens for women during this period which is associated with changes in education and marriage. Therefore, adjustments increase gaps more in 2001 than in 2017, leading to larger decreases in the wage gaps over time. This implies that the relative progress in labor market opportunities for women is larger than previously estimated. Finally, unadjusted gaps suggest gender disparities were largest in low-paid positions in 2001 but high-paid positions 2017, whereas adjusted gaps suggest they were largest in medium-paid positions in both years. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of accounting for sample selection bias when assessing gender wage disparities.
{"title":"Are observed gender wage gaps too small? The impact of sample selection bias in South Korea","authors":"Nikolas Tromp , Jeremiah Richey","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2026.101345","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2026.101345","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the impact of sample selection bias on estimates of gender wage gaps among young workers in South Korea. It uses data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS) and applies two wage imputation methods to correct for selection into full-time, regular employment. Specifically, it estimates the wage offers of those not in full employment using wages from proximate years and a semi-parametric reweighting method. The findings show that ignoring sample selection bias causes wage offers to be overestimated, particularly for women, as those with lower wage offers are more likely to opt out full employment. Consequently, selection adjustments increase wage gaps in both 2001 and 2017. Positive selection weakens for women during this period which is associated with changes in education and marriage. Therefore, adjustments increase gaps more in 2001 than in 2017, leading to larger decreases in the wage gaps over time. This implies that the relative progress in labor market opportunities for women is larger than previously estimated. Finally, unadjusted gaps suggest gender disparities were largest in low-paid positions in 2001 but high-paid positions 2017, whereas adjusted gaps suggest they were largest in medium-paid positions in both years. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of accounting for sample selection bias when assessing gender wage disparities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101345"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145927168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2026-02-16DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2026.101346
Nikolas Tromp , Jeremiah Richey
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Are observed gender wage gaps too small? The impact of sample selection bias in South Korea” [Jpn. World Econ. 77 (2026) 101345]","authors":"Nikolas Tromp , Jeremiah Richey","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2026.101346","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2026.101346","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101346"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147397315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-03-01Epub Date: 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101343
Toshiyuki Matsuura
This study revisits the impact of the servicification of Japanese manufacturing firms on their performance in the export market using a Japanese firm-level panel data set from 2009 to 2019. We constructed two measures of firm-level servicification: in-house service production and bought-in service input, which refers to service purchased from external providers. We then examine the impact of both types of servicification on corporate performance in the export market, as measured by the global value chain participation dummy and export intensity. Estimating the correlated random effects model, which allows us to control for unobserved individual fixed effects, we find that bought-in service input, especially service outsourcing, significantly improves global value chain participation and export intensity, and that this effect is greater for high-tech industries.
{"title":"Revisiting the role of service for manufacturing firm exports: Evidence from Japanese firm-level data","authors":"Toshiyuki Matsuura","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101343","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101343","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study revisits the impact of the servicification of Japanese manufacturing firms on their performance in the export market using a Japanese firm-level panel data set from 2009 to 2019. We constructed two measures of firm-level servicification: in-house service production and bought-in service input, which refers to service purchased from external providers. We then examine the impact of both types of servicification on corporate performance in the export market, as measured by the global value chain participation dummy and export intensity. Estimating the correlated random effects model, which allows us to control for unobserved individual fixed effects, we find that bought-in service input, especially service outsourcing, significantly improves global value chain participation and export intensity, and that this effect is greater for high-tech industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 101343"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145760846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-10DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101330
Peter J. Morgan , Trinh Q. Long , Kunhyui Kim
The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting falls in demand are severely affecting Asian households. At the same time, governments implemented aid programs to support households and businesses. To better understand these impacts, we carried out two waves of interviews of households in seven ASEAN countries. The following factors contributed to declines in expenditure and the experience of financial difficulty: being in a lower-income group, lower education of household head, female household head, job loss, and location in a lockdown area. The amount of government aid received relative to pre-pandemic income was much higher for lower-income groups. We find a positive effect of government aid on reducing the experience of financial difficulty.
{"title":"Impacts of COVID-19 on households in ASEAN countries: Medium-run impacts and their implications for human capital development","authors":"Peter J. Morgan , Trinh Q. Long , Kunhyui Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting falls in demand are severely affecting Asian households. At the same time, governments implemented aid programs to support households and businesses. To better understand these impacts, we carried out two waves of interviews of households in seven ASEAN countries. The following factors contributed to declines in expenditure and the experience of financial difficulty: being in a lower-income group, lower education of household head, female household head, job loss, and location in a lockdown area. The amount of government aid received relative to pre-pandemic income was much higher for lower-income groups. We find a positive effect of government aid on reducing the experience of financial difficulty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101330"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145364597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-28DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101329
Willem Thorbecke , Chen Chen , Nimesh Salike
China’s exports increased from $62 billion in 1990 to $3.6 trillion in 2022. This surge has generated protectionism abroad. Researchers found that renminbi appreciations in earlier years decreased China’s exports. This paper presents time series and panel data evidence indicating that both real effective and bilateral real exchange rates after the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) no longer affect aggregate exports. It also finds that almost all individual export categories were sensitive to exchange rates before the GFC but that less than half are afterwards. These results imply that, if policymakers in China and the rest of the world want to influence China’s trade, they need to use instruments other than exchange rates.
{"title":"The diminishing impact of exchange rates on China’s exports","authors":"Willem Thorbecke , Chen Chen , Nimesh Salike","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101329","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101329","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s exports increased from $62 billion in 1990 to $3.6 trillion in 2022. This surge has generated protectionism abroad. Researchers found that renminbi appreciations in earlier years decreased China’s exports. This paper presents time series and panel data evidence indicating that both real effective and bilateral real exchange rates after the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) no longer affect aggregate exports. It also finds that almost all individual export categories were sensitive to exchange rates before the GFC but that less than half are afterwards. These results imply that, if policymakers in China and the rest of the world want to influence China’s trade, they need to use instruments other than exchange rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101329"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145195890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-11-22DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101335
Hongyan Lu
This paper investigates whether introducing advanced technologies will affect the impact of population aging on productivity. We examine the interactions between age-skill labor groups and technical capital represented by ICT and industrial robots in 12 OECD countries from 2008 to 2020. Using sector-level data, we find that a higher ICT intensity enhances relative labor productivity in industries employing a large share of low-skilled older workers, while robots exhibit complementarities with high-skilled older workers. Moreover, when ICT and robots are jointly adopted, the relative productivity differences across age-skilled groups are shrinked, particularly narrowing the gap between workers of the same age group but with different skill levels. The effects, however, are highly heterogeneous across countries and industries. In countries with high population aging and widespread robot use, the interactions between technological capital and labor differ markedly. Furthermore, robots tend to exhibit stronger complementarities with workers in capital-intensive industries, while ICT shows complementary effects with older workers across both skill groups in labor-intensive industries.
{"title":"Robots, ICT and aging: How do advanced technologies interact with aging","authors":"Hongyan Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101335","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101335","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates whether introducing advanced technologies will affect the impact of population aging on productivity. We examine the interactions between age-skill labor groups and technical capital represented by ICT and industrial robots in 12 OECD countries from 2008 to 2020. Using sector-level data, we find that a higher ICT intensity enhances relative labor productivity in industries employing a large share of low-skilled older workers, while robots exhibit complementarities with high-skilled older workers. Moreover, when ICT and robots are jointly adopted, the relative productivity differences across age-skilled groups are shrinked, particularly narrowing the gap between workers of the same age group but with different skill levels. The effects, however, are highly heterogeneous across countries and industries. In countries with high population aging and widespread robot use, the interactions between technological capital and labor differ markedly. Furthermore, robots tend to exhibit stronger complementarities with workers in capital-intensive industries, while ICT shows complementary effects with older workers across both skill groups in labor-intensive industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101335"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145614567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101331
Yudai Higashi , Masaru Sasaki
This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic deteriorated the occupational mismatch between job seekers and vacancies in the Japanese labor market. We particularly investigate how occupational vulnerability and labor market segmentation by employment type (full-time versus part-time) affected mismatch dynamics during the pandemic. We estimate the mismatch indices across occupations by vulnerability and employment type using the method developed by Şahin et al. (2014). We find that the pandemic induced mismatch across occupations with a high risk of infection and occupations in which it is easy to work remotely for both full- and part-time workers. Furthermore, mismatch across occupations in which it is particularly difficult to work remotely increased for full-time workers.
{"title":"Did COVID-19 deteriorate mismatch in the Japanese labor market?","authors":"Yudai Higashi , Masaru Sasaki","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101331","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101331","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic deteriorated the occupational mismatch between job seekers and vacancies in the Japanese labor market. We particularly investigate how occupational vulnerability and labor market segmentation by employment type (full-time versus part-time) affected mismatch dynamics during the pandemic. We estimate the mismatch indices across occupations by vulnerability and employment type using the method developed by Şahin et al. (2014). We find that the pandemic induced mismatch across occupations with a high risk of infection and occupations in which it is easy to work remotely for both full- and part-time workers. Furthermore, mismatch across occupations in which it is particularly difficult to work remotely increased for full-time workers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101331"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145466839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-11-13DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101334
Yasuhiro Iwanaga
This study conducts a systematic analysis of the stock market reversal effect using four key indicators: high-to-price, price-to-high, low-to-price, and price-to-low. By applying these indicators to the Japanese stock market, this study evaluates their effectiveness in predicting reversals. The findings indicate that among the four indicators, price-to-low proves to be the most effective. In contrast, high-to-price, which was initially expected to be the strongest in capturing the momentum effect, does not perform as prominently as anticipated. This suggests that the reference price investors should consider may vary depending on market conditions and time periods. Moreover, the effectiveness of the price-to-low strategy becomes even more pronounced during periods of high volatility, highlighting its potential as a valuable investment approach in times of heightened market uncertainty.
{"title":"Decomposing the reversal effect: Exploring low-to-price and other indicators","authors":"Yasuhiro Iwanaga","doi":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101334","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101334","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study conducts a systematic analysis of the stock market reversal effect using four key indicators: high-to-price, price-to-high, low-to-price, and price-to-low. By applying these indicators to the Japanese stock market, this study evaluates their effectiveness in predicting reversals. The findings indicate that among the four indicators, price-to-low proves to be the most effective. In contrast, high-to-price, which was initially expected to be the strongest in capturing the momentum effect, does not perform as prominently as anticipated. This suggests that the reference price investors should consider may vary depending on market conditions and time periods. Moreover, the effectiveness of the price-to-low strategy becomes even more pronounced during periods of high volatility, highlighting its potential as a valuable investment approach in times of heightened market uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46744,"journal":{"name":"Japan and the World Economy","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101334"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145520229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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