Japan and the World Economy最新文献

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Impact of the 2011 earthquake on the real estate market in Tokyo

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2025.101298

Naoto Mikawa

After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, seismic activity in Japan changed drastically, affecting people’s response to earthquakes even outside the affected area. This change may be heterogeneous depending on where they live, especially if the area is prone to seismic hazards. To measure seismic hazards, the nature of the ground on which a building stands was used as a source of people’s assessment of disaster. Using real estate transaction data and the hedonic approach, this study investigates the heterogeneous impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on the real estate market in undamaged areas. The analysis of ground classification revealed that the Great East Japan Earthquake led to about 3 % reduction in both land prices and housing prices in the lowland areas in the Tokyo Special Zone, where ground was soft and experienced stronger shaking compared with other areas. The reduction lasted for 5 years before recovering to the pre-disaster level. However, the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake did not impact land prices in the Tokyo Special Zone.

引用次数: 0

Investigating how inflation expectations affect precautionary wealth

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2025-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101295

Tomohide Mineyama , Kiichi Tokuoka

This study examines how inflation expectations affect precautionary wealth by focusing on the period of zero or low-interest rates in Japan and using Japanese household survey data during this period. The key finding of this paper is that experienced inflation as a proxy for inflation expectations has a positive impact on the target ratio of precautionary wealth to permanent income. This is consistent with the prediction of the buffer stock (Carroll, 1997) that given the nominal interest rate (as has been observed in Japan), higher inflation expectations raise the target ratio when households expect higher inflation to translate into their nominal income in a limited way. This study also confirms that actual liquid wealth gradually converges to the target level of precautionary wealth over the years, which is consistent with the implications of the buffer stock model.

引用次数: 0

Effect of income-increasing deduction in personal income tax on the burden reduction and income redistribution: Evidence from Japan

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101296

Taro Ohno , Tomotsugu Imahori , Daizo Kojima

Deduction system is an important element for fulfilling the purposes of the personal income taxation. Designing an ideal system of deductions requires understanding the burden reduction effect and its impact on income redistribution due to taxes. In this study, we use Japanese household microdata (1994–2019) to empirically evaluate the burden reduction and redistributive effects of income-increasing deductions on personal income tax. In addition, we separate the changes in the redistribution effect of the deductions into system and non-system reforms. The higher the income bracket, the more effective the deductions in reducing the tax burden due to the impact of the income-increasing part of the deductions. The burden reduction effect of deductions is found to have declined over the sample period of 25 years, mainly due to the impact of system reforms. Moreover, Unlike the other parts that enhance the redistributive effects, the income-increasing part of deductions reduces the redistributive effects.

引用次数: 0

The anchoring of inflation expectations in Japan: A learning-approach perspective

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101293

Yoshihiko Hogen, Ryoichi Okuma

This paper uses a learning model to jointly estimate long-term inflation expectations and the degree of anchoring in Japan since the 1960s. We find that in the 1970s, Japan had higher long-term inflation expectations than the U.S. during the first oil shock, but much lower inflation expectations after the second oil shock. This contrast between Japan and the U.S. is consistent with many studies that attribute the differences in the inflation dynamics between Japan and the U.S. to the monetary policy stance in Japan during the 1970s and early 1980s. Long-term inflation expectations fell to around 2 percent in the late 1980s and remained anchored until the mid-1990s. They fell below 2 percent in the late 1990s, resulting in a low degree of anchoring until the early 2010s. Since early 2013, inflation expectations have risen but are not yet been anchored to the target. Further VAR analysis suggests that declining markups could be a primary source for hindering the anchoring of inflation expectations in Japan.

引用次数: 0

Determinants of family firm IPO underpricing: Evidence from Japan

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101294

Kenta Funaoka , Zhihua Yao

This study analyzes 94 firms that were listed on the JASDAQ between 2015 and 2021, with a specific focus on identifying the determinants of underpricing in family firms during their initial public offering (IPO). In Japan, over 90 % of enterprises are family-owned, with even half of the publicly listed companies falling into this category. The findings revealed that, ceteris paribus, firms with founding CEOs experienced less underpricing at the time of going public compared to those without. This difference was more significant in companies with higher management ownership and a higher ratio of external directors. These results emphasize the importance of strong governance structures in reducing underpricing for family firms during their IPOs.

引用次数: 0

Endogenous decisions on acceptable worker-job mismatch level and the impact on workers’ performance 关于可接受的工人与工作不匹配程度的内生决定及其对工人绩效的影响

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101283

Izumi Yokoyama , Takuya Obara , Arisa Shichijo Kiyomoto , Kaichi Kusada , Kazuma Edamura , Tomohiko Inui

This study examines the endogeneity of a worker’s acceptable level of job mismatch and its impact on worker performance. First, we construct a theoretical model that depicts the tendency of a potential worker to take a job offer if the firm is “attractive” for some reason, even when he or she knows that their personality does not align with the firm’s characteristics. According to this model, a strong tendency for this behavior yields a positive relationship between a worker’s acceptable mismatch level and the firm’s attractive characteristics. Given the positive relationship, an instrumental variable estimation confirms that higher mismatch significantly lowers worker performance. Since “attractive” firms tend to be generally large firms with a major influence on the economy, the lowered performance due to these mismatches can hinder economic strength and hamper national growth. Resolving this issue may avoid further losses.

本研究探讨了工人可接受的工作不匹配程度的内生性及其对工人绩效的影响。首先，我们构建了一个理论模型，该模型描述了一种倾向，即如果公司出于某种原因 "有吸引力"，潜在员工即使知道自己的个性与公司的特点不符，也会接受工作机会。根据该模型，这种行为的强烈倾向会在工人可接受的不匹配程度与公司的吸引力特征之间产生正相关关系。鉴于这种正相关关系，工具变量估计证实，较高的错配程度会显著降低工人的绩效。由于 "有吸引力 "的企业一般都是对经济有重大影响的大型企业，这些错配导致的绩效降低会阻碍经济实力和国家增长。解决这一问题可以避免进一步的损失。

引用次数: 0

The impact of news shock of the openings or expansions of large-scale semiconductor plants on local labour market in Japan 大型半导体工厂开工或扩建的新闻冲击对日本当地劳动力市场的影响

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101281

Yamaguchi Akira

This study investigates the causal effect of news shock of openings or expansions of large-scale semiconductor plants in Japan on local labor market, especially measured by new job opening ratio, using DiD (Difference-in-Difference) applied to prefecture-level data. The results shows news shock of large-scale openings or expansion of semiconductor plants increase new job opening ratio by 0.05 - 0.08pt significantly. To address the endogeneity problems arising from firms’ site selection, I matched control group consist of prefectures where news about the openings or expansion of large semiconductor plants were announced but the amounts of investment were relatively small compared to the treatment group and run DiD analysis, and finally obtained the similar robust results. Furthermore, it has been recently pointed out in econometrics that the heterogeneity of treatment effects in a TWFE (Two Way Fixed Effect or Staggered DiD) analysis in which the timings of treatments differ, can lead to biased estimator. The similar robust results were also obtained in the analysis using CS (Callaway and Sant’Anna) DiD, a type of DiD method that overcomes this bias problem. This paper is in the literature which analyzes the impact of large-scale plant openings (million dollar plant openings) on the local labor market, and contributes to the accumulation of knowledge in this field, which is surprisingly scarce in Japan.

本研究利用 DiD（差分法）对都道府县数据进行分析，研究了日本大规模半导体工厂开工或扩建的新闻冲击对当地劳动力市场的因果效应，尤其是以新职位空缺率为衡量指标。结果表明，半导体工厂大规模开工或扩建的新闻冲击会显著增加新职位空缺率 0.05 - 0.08pt。为了解决企业选址带来的内生性问题，笔者将公布了大型半导体工厂开工或扩建消息但投资额相对较小的都道府县与处理组进行匹配，并进行 DiD 分析，最终得到了类似的稳健结果。此外，计量经济学最近指出，在处理时间不同的 TWFE（双向固定效应或交错 DiD）分析中，处理效应的异质性会导致估计值的偏差。使用 CS（Callaway 和 Sant'Anna）DiD 方法进行分析也得到了类似的稳健结果，CS DiD 是一种能克服这种偏差问题的 DiD 方法。本文属于分析大规模工厂开业（百万美元工厂开业）对当地劳动力市场影响的文献，有助于积累这一领域的知识。

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引用次数: 0

Household spending responses to two-time COVID-19 payments 家庭支出对两次 COVID-19 付款的反应

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101282

Kozo Ueda

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Japanese government provided special cash payments (SCPs) multiple times. This study aims to estimate the marginal propensity to spend, a proxy for the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), to these income shocks using detailed bank transaction data. Our findings indicate that the MPC is stable at around 0.2 for both the first wave of SCPs launched in mid-2020 and the second wave of SCPs provided from the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022. The MPC tends to increase as individuals become less wealthy, more liquidity constrained, or the number of family members is larger.

在 COVID-19 大流行期间，日本政府多次提供特别现金支付（SCP）。本研究旨在利用详细的银行交易数据估算这些收入冲击的边际消费倾向，即边际消费倾向（MPC）的替代值。我们的研究结果表明，无论是 2020 年年中推出的第一波小额信贷支持计划，还是 2021 年底至 2022 年初推出的第二波小额信贷支持计划，边际消费倾向都稳定在 0.2 左右。随着个人财富越少、流动性越紧张或家庭成员越多，MPC 趋于增加。

引用次数: 0

The impact of accounting quality on investment efficiency: Evidence from the 2001 bank shareholding limitation act of Japan 会计质量对投资效率的影响：来自日本 2001 年银行持股限制法案的证据

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101280

Masahiro Enomoto , Boochun Jung , S. Ghon Rhee , Akinobu Shuto

Biddle and Hilary (2006) demonstrate that accounting quality plays an important role in improving investment efficiency in the United States but not in Japan. We examine whether the role of accounting quality remains insignificant in Japan beyond their study period, 1975–2001. We hypothesize that since Japan experienced a dramatic decline in bank financing and keiretsu affiliations after 2001, when the Act on Limitation on Shareholding by Banks and Other Financial Institutions became effective, accounting quality became positively related to investment efficiency. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find a positive impact of accounting quality on investment efficiency in the post-2001 period. We also find that higher accounting quality improves investment efficiency by reducing the tendency of over-investment. The positive impact of accounting quality on investment efficiency is more pronounced among firms with lower bank financing and lower cross-shareholdings.

Biddle 和 Hilary（2006 年）证明，在美国，会计质量在提高投资效率方面发挥着重要作用，但在日本却并非如此。我们要研究的是，在他们的研究期（1975-2001 年）之后，会计质量在日本的作用是否仍然微不足道。我们假设，2001 年《银行和其他金融机构持股限制法》生效后，日本的银行融资和经团关联急剧下降，因此会计质量与投资效率正相关。与我们的假设一致，我们发现 2001 年后会计质量对投资效率有积极影响。我们还发现，较高的会计质量会降低过度投资的倾向，从而提高投资效率。在银行融资较少和交叉持股较少的企业中，会计质量对投资效率的积极影响更为明显。

引用次数: 0

A nowcasting model of industrial production using alternative data and machine learning approaches 使用替代数据和机器学习方法的工业生产预报模型

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy

Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2024.101271

Kakuho Furukawa , Ryohei Hisano , Yukio Minoura , Tomoyuki Yagi

Recent years have seen a growing trend to utilize "alternative data" in addition to traditional statistical data in order to understand and assess economic conditions in real time. In this paper, we construct a nowcasting model for the Indices of Industrial Production (IIP), which measure production activity in the manufacturing sector in Japan. The model has the following characteristics: First, it uses alternative data (mobility data and electricity demand data) that is available in real-time and can nowcast the IIP one to two months before their official release. Second, the model employs machine learning techniques to improve the nowcasting accuracy by endogenously changing the mixing ratio of nowcast values based on traditional economic statistics (the Indices of Industrial Production Forecast) and nowcast values based on alternative data, depending on the economic situation. The estimation results show that by applying machine learning techniques to alternative data, production activity can be nowcasted with high accuracy, including when it went through large fluctuations during the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

近年来，除传统统计数据外，利用 "替代数据 "了解和实时评估经济状况的趋势日益明显。本文为衡量日本制造业生产活动的工业生产指数（IIP）构建了一个即时预测模型。该模型具有以下特点：首先，它使用了可实时获得的替代数据（移动数据和电力需求数据），并能在正式发布前一到两个月对 IIP 进行预报。其次，该模型采用机器学习技术，根据经济形势内生地改变基于传统经济统计数据（工业生产预测指数）的预测值和基于替代数据的预测值的混合比例，从而提高预测的准确性。估算结果表明，通过对替代数据应用机器学习技术，生产活动可以得到高精度的预报，包括在 COVID-19 大流行病蔓延期间生产活动出现大幅波动时。

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