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The Moderating Effect of Ideological Identification on How Economic News and Economic Growth Impact Individual Economic Perceptions: Evidence From Chile 意识形态认同对经济新闻和经济增长如何影响个人经济观念的调节作用:来自智利的证据
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1177/14789299241232624
José Miguel Cabezas, Patricio D. Navia, Sebastián Rivera
Previous literature argues that macroeconomic conditions and economic news impact socio-tropic assessments. Others find that ideological identification or ideological affinity with the government impact socio-tropic economic views. Here, we test the moderating effect of ideological identification on how economic growth and economic news shape economic perceptions. We test this hypothesis using a dataset that combines monthly polls in Chile (2014–2018), economic news, and economic growth indicators. We find that ideological affinity with the government intensifies the positive impact of good macroeconomic indicators on current and prospective perceptions and, surprisingly, induces more positive current perceptions when negative economic news increases. In turn, ideological affinity with the government is associated with a slightly negative impact of good macroeconomic indicators on current (but not prospective) economic perceptions and a negative impact of negative economic news on current and prospective perceptions. Ideology moderates the effect of macroeconomic indicators and economic news on economic perceptions.
以往的文献认为,宏观经济状况和经济新闻会影响社会倾向性评估。其他文献则发现,意识形态认同或与政府的意识形态亲和力会影响社会倾向性经济观点。在此,我们检验了意识形态认同对经济增长和经济新闻如何影响经济观点的调节作用。我们使用一个结合了智利月度民调(2014-2018 年)、经济新闻和经济增长指标的数据集来检验这一假设。我们发现,与政府的意识形态亲和力会加强良好宏观经济指标对当前和未来看法的积极影响,而且令人惊讶的是,当负面经济新闻增加时,会诱发更积极的当前看法。反过来,与政府的意识形态亲和力与良好宏观经济指标对当前(但非未来)经济认知的轻微负面影响以及负面经济新闻对当前和未来认知的负面影响相关。意识形态调节了宏观经济指标和经济新闻对经济观念的影响。
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引用次数: 0
From ‘Anomaly’ to ‘Laboratory’? Fratelli d’Italia, Illiberalism and the Study of Right-Wing Parties in Western Europe 从 "反常 "到 "实验室"?意大利兄弟会、非自由主义与西欧右翼政党研究
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1177/14789299241231771
Gianfranco Baldini
Once considered an anomaly for its polarized pluralism, then marked, over the last three decades, by frequent alternations between populist and technocratic governments, Italy is now the only country in Western Europe whose coalition government is led by a party usually classified in the populist radical right family, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia). While this means that the country has finally its first female Prime Minister, understanding the trajectory of the party is important not just for the state of Italian politics but also for comparative politics more in general. Taking stock of the recent literature on Meloni’s party, it appears that the choices made by the Fratelli d’Italia – in Italy and in Europe – can resonate beyond the national borders especially in terms of illiberal ideologies and practices of right-wing parties.
意大利曾因其两极分化的多元化而被认为是一个反常的国家,在过去的三十年里,其特点是民粹主义政府和技术官僚政府之间的频繁交替,而现在,意大利是西欧唯一一个联合政府由一个通常被归入民粹主义激进右翼家族的政党领导的国家,这个政党就是乔治亚-梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)的意大利兄弟党(Fratelli d'Italia)。这意味着意大利终于有了第一位女总理,而了解该党的发展轨迹不仅对意大利政治状况很重要,而且对比较政治学也很重要。综观近期有关梅洛尼政党的文献,意大利兄弟会在意大利和欧洲所做的选择似乎可以超越国界,尤其是在右翼政党的非自由主义意识形态和实践方面。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical Political Theory: A Template for a Research Design and a Qualified Defense 实证政治理论:研究设计和合格辩护的模板
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.1177/14789299241231782
Nahshon Perez
Developments in contemporary analytic political theory have called for political theory to situate itself near political science, to pay attention to political institutions, to follow the research output of the social sciences, and to present sensitivity to method. This empirical and methodological turn has brought about a debate regarding the form and desirability of such empirically grounded political theory. We aim, first, to clarify what the empirical turn in political theory implies for research in political theory. We shall situate such empirically grounded political theory in contemporary analytic political theory, in contemporary analytic political theory’s descriptive and prescriptive steps, and also examine how this turn complements contemporary analytic political theory’s evaluative step. Second, to suggest a defense of this empirical development, as if properly understood, it would assist empirically grounded contemporary analytic political theory to achieve its own stated goals. Third, to provide a template for a research design in empirical contemporary analytic political theory.
当代政治分析理论的发展要求政治理论将自身定位在政治科学附近,关注政治体制,跟踪社会科学的研究成果,并对方法保持敏感。这种经验和方法论的转向引发了一场关于这种以经验为基础的政治理论的形式和可取性的争论。首先,我们要澄清政治理论的实证转向对政治理论研究意味着什么。我们将把这种以经验为基础的政治理论置于当代分析政治理论之中,置于当代分析政治理论的描述性和规定性步骤之中,并探讨这一转向如何与当代分析政治理论的评价性步骤相辅相成。第二,为这一实证发展提出辩护,因为如果理解得当,它将有助于以实证为基础的当代分析政治理论实现自己的既定目标。第三,为实证当代分析政治理论的研究设计提供一个模板。
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引用次数: 0
Pathways to Authoritarian Adaptation: How State–Society Interactions Push the Window of Policy Change in China 专制适应之路:国家与社会的互动如何推动中国的政策变革
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-17 DOI: 10.1177/14789299241229404
Chun-chih Chang, Yang Zeng, Xuyi Guo
Under what conditions might authoritarian states adapt public policies to social preferences? How could social actors push the window for policy change? How might state–society interactions induce policy change as the practice of authoritarian adaptation? This article utilizes a new database of case evidence and the qualitative comparative analysis method to explore the relationship between state–society interaction and policy change as the practical manifestation of authoritarian adaptation in China. The study presents three approaches to policy change: state–society interactive strategies, policy entrepreneurs and the political opportunity structure. The empirical results reveal three patterns of state–society interaction leading to policy change, while submission is not a viable option for society under state suppression. Media presence may impede policy change, and the diverse functions of social organizations should be related to interactive strategies. In addition, social actors may identify political opportunities through multiround interaction, while the role of joint administration in effecting policy change remains unclear. This study offers a novel understanding of authoritarian adaptation.
专制国家在什么情况下可以根据社会偏好调整公共政策?社会行动者如何推动政策变革的窗口?国家与社会的互动如何促使政策变化成为专制适应的实践?本文利用新的案例证据数据库和定性比较分析方法,探讨国家-社会互动与政策变迁之间的关系,以此作为威权适应在中国的实践表现。研究从国家-社会互动策略、政策企业家和政治机会结构三个方面探讨了政策变迁。实证结果揭示了三种导致政策变革的国家-社会互动模式,而屈从并非国家压制下社会的可行选择。媒体的存在可能会阻碍政策变革,而社会组织的不同功能应与互动策略相关。此外,社会行动者可能会通过多轮互动发现政治机遇,而联合管理在实现政策变革中的作用仍不明确。本研究为威权适应提供了一种新的理解。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 and Political Trust in Local Governments: Evidence From Nepal COVID-19 与地方政府的政治信任:尼泊尔的证据
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.1177/14789299231220535
Charlotte Fiedler, Hugo Marcos-Marné, Karina Mross
The COVID-19 pandemic has reinvigorated debates about the drivers of political trust. Research so far has mainly focused on national-level institutions, during the early stages of the pandemic and using data from established democracies. However, how does this relationship look like if we pay attention to subnational institutions in non-consolidated democracies, and further away from the initial COVID-19 outbreak? To contribute to this line of research, this article focuses on the local level and explores the association between individuals’ satisfaction with COVID-19 performance and political trust in Nepal. For that, it uses novel data collected via telephone interviews (N = 1400) conducted between 25 April and 24 May 2021, during the second wave of COVID-19. Our main results reveal that satisfaction with local institutions’ COVID-related performance is significantly and robustly associated with levels of political trust at the local level. The association holds even when geographical and time specifications are added, trust towards national institutions or expectations about local governments are included in the analysis and the dependent variable is disaggregated to discard measurement biases. The study thereby provides important insights into the role performance plays for institutional trust beyond the national level and in an unconsolidated democracy.
COVID-19 大流行为有关政治信任驱动因素的讨论注入了新的活力。迄今为止,研究主要集中在大流行病早期阶段的国家级机构,并使用了来自成熟民主国家的数据。然而,如果我们关注的是非巩固民主国家的国家以下各级机构,并且距离 COVID-19 最初爆发的时间更远,那么这种关系会是怎样的呢?为了对这一研究方向有所贡献,本文将重点放在地方层面,探讨尼泊尔个人对 COVID-19 表现的满意度与政治信任之间的关系。为此,本文使用了在 COVID-19 第二波期间于 2021 年 4 月 25 日至 5 月 24 日进行的电话访谈(N = 1400)收集的新数据。我们的主要结果表明,对地方机构 COVID 相关绩效的满意度与地方层面的政治信任度有显著且稳健的关联。即使增加了地理和时间规格,将对国家机构的信任或对地方政府的期望纳入分析,并对因变量进行分类以摒弃测量偏差,这种关联仍然成立。因此,这项研究提供了重要的见解,说明在国家层面之外以及在不巩固的民主制度中,绩效对机构信任所起的作用。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 and Political Trust in Local Governments: Evidence From Nepal COVID-19 与地方政府的政治信任:尼泊尔的证据
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI: 10.1177/14789299231220535
Charlotte Fiedler, Hugo Marcos-Marné, Karina Mross
The COVID-19 pandemic has reinvigorated debates about the drivers of political trust. Research so far has mainly focused on national-level institutions, during the early stages of the pandemic and using data from established democracies. However, how does this relationship look like if we pay attention to subnational institutions in non-consolidated democracies, and further away from the initial COVID-19 outbreak? To contribute to this line of research, this article focuses on the local level and explores the association between individuals’ satisfaction with COVID-19 performance and political trust in Nepal. For that, it uses novel data collected via telephone interviews (N = 1400) conducted between 25 April and 24 May 2021, during the second wave of COVID-19. Our main results reveal that satisfaction with local institutions’ COVID-related performance is significantly and robustly associated with levels of political trust at the local level. The association holds even when geographical and time specifications are added, trust towards national institutions or expectations about local governments are included in the analysis and the dependent variable is disaggregated to discard measurement biases. The study thereby provides important insights into the role performance plays for institutional trust beyond the national level and in an unconsolidated democracy.
COVID-19 大流行为有关政治信任驱动因素的讨论注入了新的活力。迄今为止,研究主要集中在大流行病早期阶段的国家级机构,并使用了来自成熟民主国家的数据。然而,如果我们关注的是非巩固民主国家的国家以下各级机构,并且距离 COVID-19 最初爆发的时间更远,那么这种关系会是怎样的呢?为了对这一研究方向有所贡献,本文将重点放在地方层面,探讨尼泊尔个人对 COVID-19 表现的满意度与政治信任之间的关系。为此,本文使用了在 COVID-19 第二波期间于 2021 年 4 月 25 日至 5 月 24 日进行的电话访谈(N = 1400)收集的新数据。我们的主要结果表明,对地方机构 COVID 相关绩效的满意度与地方层面的政治信任度有显著且稳健的关联。即使增加了地理和时间规格,将对国家机构的信任或对地方政府的期望纳入分析,并对因变量进行分类以摒弃测量偏差,这种关联仍然成立。因此,这项研究提供了重要的见解,说明在国家层面之外以及在不巩固的民主制度中,绩效对机构信任所起的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Bulgarian Populist Euroscepticism: The Unavoidable Russian Dimension 保加利亚民粹主义欧洲怀疑论:不可避免的俄罗斯因素
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1177/14789299241228097
Ildiko Otova
This analysis contextualises Bulgarian Euroscepticism by a spatial-temporal approach. Historical-geographical overlays have their temporal continuities across political regimes, and the location determines the political process. The attitude towards Russia has been crucial in shaping the political system of Bulgaria. The superimposition of factors such as historical and cultural ties, close relationships at the individual level, and economic ties, determined also by geopolitical sites, explain the attitudes towards Russia in Bulgarian society. This analysis does not fit explicitly in any of the familiar Eurosceptic typologies. However, it proposes a typologisation of Bulgarian populism and uses it to locate Bulgarian Euroscepticism along the Europe–Russia axis, demonstrating the importance of historical and geographical contexts or temporal overlaps and locations to the understanding of the national specificities of Euroscepticism.
本分析通过时空方法对保加利亚欧洲怀疑论的背景进行了分析。历史与地理的叠加在不同的政治体制中具有时间上的连续性,而地理位置则决定了政治进程。对俄罗斯的态度对保加利亚政治制度的形成至关重要。历史和文化联系、个人层面的密切关系、经济联系等因素的叠加(也由地缘政治地点决定),解释了保加利亚社会对俄罗斯的态度。这一分析并不完全符合我们所熟悉的欧洲怀疑论类型。然而,它提出了保加利亚民粹主义的类型学,并以此将保加利亚的欧洲怀疑论定位在欧洲-俄罗斯轴线上,从而证明了历史和地理背景或时间重叠和位置对于理解欧洲怀疑论的国家特性的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Bulgarian Populist Euroscepticism: The Unavoidable Russian Dimension 保加利亚民粹主义欧洲怀疑论:不可避免的俄罗斯因素
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.1177/14789299241228097
Ildiko Otova
This analysis contextualises Bulgarian Euroscepticism by a spatial-temporal approach. Historical-geographical overlays have their temporal continuities across political regimes, and the location determines the political process. The attitude towards Russia has been crucial in shaping the political system of Bulgaria. The superimposition of factors such as historical and cultural ties, close relationships at the individual level, and economic ties, determined also by geopolitical sites, explain the attitudes towards Russia in Bulgarian society. This analysis does not fit explicitly in any of the familiar Eurosceptic typologies. However, it proposes a typologisation of Bulgarian populism and uses it to locate Bulgarian Euroscepticism along the Europe–Russia axis, demonstrating the importance of historical and geographical contexts or temporal overlaps and locations to the understanding of the national specificities of Euroscepticism.
本分析通过时空方法对保加利亚欧洲怀疑论的背景进行了分析。历史与地理的叠加在不同的政治体制中具有时间上的连续性,而地理位置则决定了政治进程。对俄罗斯的态度对保加利亚政治制度的形成至关重要。历史和文化联系、个人层面的密切关系、经济联系等因素的叠加(也由地缘政治地点决定),解释了保加利亚社会对俄罗斯的态度。这一分析并不完全符合我们所熟悉的欧洲怀疑论类型。然而,它提出了保加利亚民粹主义的类型学,并以此将保加利亚的欧洲怀疑论定位在欧洲-俄罗斯轴线上,从而证明了历史和地理背景或时间重叠和位置对于理解欧洲怀疑论的国家特性的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
On the Term “Environmental Refugee”: Normative Assumptions and Empirical Realities 关于 "环境难民 "一词:规范假设与经验现实
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1177/14789299241226614
J. Hoye, Gustaf Hednäs, Michael Rowland, Umang Sodhi, Jarosław Kantorowicz
Activist groups debate the complex connection between climate change and migration but generally agree on the normative value of describing those migrants as “environmental refugees.” They argue that using such a term, even though unrecognized under international law, might increase the urgency of this issue in the eyes of the public. Does the term do the normative work that has been assumed? To our knowledge, the idea has not been subject to empirical confirmation. In this research note, we present data from two experimental surveys conducted in the UK and the Netherlands (N = 2261) directly addressing that question. The findings significantly undermine the assumption that “environmental refugee” is normatively persuasive outside activists and academic circles. We demonstrate that using “environmental refugees” frames compared to “environmental migrants” does not increase the urgency of the climate migration problem in the eyes of the public, and as our results show, such frames may slightly lower perceptions of urgency. Yet, this result is rather negligible.
活动团体就气候变化与移民之间的复杂联系展开了辩论,但普遍认同将这些移民描述为 "环境难民 "的规范价值。他们认为,使用这样一个术语,尽管在国际法中没有得到承认,但在公众眼中可能会增加这个问题的紧迫性。这个词是否能像人们假设的那样起到规范作用?据我们所知,这一想法尚未得到经验的证实。在本研究报告中,我们介绍了在英国和荷兰进行的两项实验调查(N = 2261)的数据,直接探讨了这一问题。研究结果大大削弱了 "环境难民 "在活动家和学术界之外具有规范说服力的假设。我们证明,与 "环境移民 "相比,使用 "环境难民 "框架并不会提高气候移民问题在公众眼中的紧迫性。然而,这一结果是可以忽略不计的。
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引用次数: 0
On the Term “Environmental Refugee”: Normative Assumptions and Empirical Realities 关于 "环境难民 "一词:规范假设与经验现实
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1177/14789299241226614
J. Hoye, Gustaf Hednäs, Michael Rowland, Umang Sodhi, Jarosław Kantorowicz
Activist groups debate the complex connection between climate change and migration but generally agree on the normative value of describing those migrants as “environmental refugees.” They argue that using such a term, even though unrecognized under international law, might increase the urgency of this issue in the eyes of the public. Does the term do the normative work that has been assumed? To our knowledge, the idea has not been subject to empirical confirmation. In this research note, we present data from two experimental surveys conducted in the UK and the Netherlands (N = 2261) directly addressing that question. The findings significantly undermine the assumption that “environmental refugee” is normatively persuasive outside activists and academic circles. We demonstrate that using “environmental refugees” frames compared to “environmental migrants” does not increase the urgency of the climate migration problem in the eyes of the public, and as our results show, such frames may slightly lower perceptions of urgency. Yet, this result is rather negligible.
活动团体就气候变化与移民之间的复杂联系展开了辩论,但普遍认同将这些移民描述为 "环境难民 "的规范价值。他们认为,使用这样一个术语,尽管在国际法中没有得到承认,但在公众眼中可能会增加这个问题的紧迫性。这个词是否能像人们假设的那样起到规范作用?据我们所知,这一想法尚未得到经验的证实。在本研究报告中,我们介绍了在英国和荷兰进行的两项实验调查(N = 2261)的数据,直接探讨了这一问题。研究结果大大削弱了 "环境难民 "在活动家和学术界之外具有规范说服力的假设。我们证明,与 "环境移民 "相比,使用 "环境难民 "框架并不会提高气候移民问题在公众眼中的紧迫性。然而,这一结果是可以忽略不计的。
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引用次数: 0
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Political Studies Review
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