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Evaluating Pedestrian Congestion Based on Missing Sensing Data 根据缺失传感数据评估行人拥堵情况
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0336
Xiaolu Jia, Claudio Feliciani, Sakura Tanida, D. Yanagisawa, K. Nishinari
Accurately evaluating pedestrian congestion is crucial for evidence-based improvements in various walking environments. Tracking pedestrian movements in real-world settings often leads to incomplete data collection. Despite this challenge, pedestrian congestion with missing data has not been extensively addressed in existing research. This study examined the impact of missing data on density, speed, and congestion number in the course of evaluating pedestrian congestion. While density is the most commonly used index, speed and congestion number proved more robust.
准确评估行人拥堵状况对于以证据为基础改善各种步行环境至关重要。在真实世界环境中跟踪行人活动往往会导致数据收集不完整。尽管存在这一挑战,但现有研究尚未广泛涉及数据缺失的行人拥堵问题。本研究在评估行人拥堵情况的过程中,考察了数据缺失对密度、速度和拥堵数量的影响。虽然密度是最常用的指数,但速度和拥堵数被证明更为可靠。
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引用次数: 0
Ticketing and Crowd Management System for Attraction Facilities: An Aquarium Case Study 景点设施的票务和人群管理系统:水族馆案例研究
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0303
Yoshiaki Nakagawa, Yukari Abe, Masami Isobe
In tourist facilities, managing ticket sales can reduce congestion imbalances. This study reports on the results of a pilot experiment conducted at Kaiyukan in Osaka, one of the largest aquariums in Japan. The experiment utilized pre-sale ticket data for controlling admission time intervals, smoothing the number of admissions through dynamic pricing, and predicting visitor numbers. The study reviewed the effectiveness of each of these approaches to alleviate congestion inside Kaiyukan. We then report on a method to predict the number of visitors from the pre-sale conditions of Kaiyukan admission tickets. It was found that setting entry times to 15-minute intervals was most operationally advantageous for the Kaiyukan. Moreover, the behavioral effects induced by variable pricing were more effective when prices were changed based on time slots rather than on a daily basis. Compared to the Holt–Winters’ method, we were able to maintain stable prediction accuracy even during consecutive holidays and long school vacation seasons.
在旅游设施中,管理门票销售可以减少拥挤失衡现象。本研究报告了在日本最大的水族馆之一--大阪海游馆进行的试点实验的结果。该实验利用预售门票数据控制入场时间间隔,通过动态定价平滑入场人数,并预测游客人数。研究回顾了上述每种方法在缓解海游馆内拥挤情况方面的有效性。然后,我们报告了一种根据海游馆门票预售情况预测游客数量的方法。结果发现,将入场时间设定为 15 分钟间隔对海游馆的运营最为有利。此外,根据时间段而不是每天改变价格时,可变定价引发的行为效应更为有效。与霍尔特-温特斯方法相比,即使在连续假期和学校长假期间,我们也能保持稳定的预测准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Using Virtual Reality to Study the Effectiveness of Crowd Control Medium and Information 利用虚拟现实技术研究人群控制媒介和信息的有效性
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0293
Shuhei Miyano
When designing crowd control through simulations, the appropriate crowd-control medium (objects used to convey control information, e.g., signages or security guards) and information should be selected, considering the crowd’s compliance with control instructions. However, there is still scope for further research on the influence of control medium and information on compliance behavior. Therefore, in this study, we measured the effectiveness of medium and information in guiding participants’ route choices by conducting a crowd experiment using virtual reality. The experimental findings confirmed that in terms of control medium, the guidance proffered by security guards was more effective than signage, with the odds of compliance rate approximately 1.54 times greater. Regarding control information, Guide control (direct guidance instruction) was more effective and received approximately 1.22 times greater odds of compliance rate than Advise control (indirect guidance through information presentation). Crowd-control designers can use the results obtained in this study to evaluate the effectiveness of control measures in crowd simulations.
在通过模拟设计人群控制时,应考虑到人群对控制指令的遵守情况,选择适当的人群控制媒介(用于传递控制信息的物体,如标志牌或保安人员)和信息。然而,控制媒介和信息对遵从行为的影响仍有进一步研究的空间。因此,在本研究中,我们通过使用虚拟现实技术进行人群实验,测量了媒介和信息在引导参与者选择路线方面的有效性。实验结果证实,在控制媒介方面,保安提供的引导比指示牌更有效,遵从率约为指示牌的 1.54 倍。在控制信息方面,"引导 "控制(直接引导指示)比 "建议 "控制(通过信息展示进行间接引导)更有效,遵守率大约高出 1.22 倍。人群控制设计者可以利用本研究获得的结果来评估人群模拟中控制措施的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Tsunami Evacuation Plans for an Underground Mall Using an Agent-Based Model 使用基于代理的模型评估地下商场的海啸疏散计划
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0268
Akira Takahashi, K. Yasufuku
Tsunamis resulting from earthquakes can cause extensive damage, including infrastructure destruction, injuries, and fatalities. To address these risks, numerous tsunami evacuation simulations have been conducted to assess evacuation strategies and identify issues, particularly in Japan, where the Nankai Trough earthquake is anticipated, affecting underground malls in urban areas. Our previous research primarily focused on evacuating from underground to the surface, neglecting surface evacuation. Therefore, this study extended the previous study to include horizontal evacuation following the exit from the underground mall to ground level. It also considered the impact of pedestrian road crossings as interactions with vehicular traffic within the simulation to enhance realism and verify the evacuation risk. The study also explores scenarios where evacuation guide stairs are unavailable, comparing the effectiveness of alternative staircases in the evacuation plan. Results indicate that while using alternative staircases temporarily increases the number of evacuees reaching the surface, road crossings on evacuation routes become significant bottlenecks, leading to surface congestion and delayed evacuations. This raises doubts about the effectiveness of alternative staircases and highlights the need to consider alternative evacuation routes as a secondary plan. Additionally, the study reveals that reduced pedestrian flow at road crossings can significantly impact on evacuation times. Ultimately, this study demonstrated that achieving a short evacuation time from underground malls to the ground level might not always yield the best evacuation plan. It underscored the importance of considering aboveground factors in evacuation planning to ensure safety in the event of a tsunami caused by an earthquake.
地震引发的海啸可造成广泛破坏,包括基础设施破坏、人员伤亡。为了应对这些风险,人们进行了大量海啸疏散模拟,以评估疏散策略和发现问题,特别是在日本,预计南海槽地震将影响城市地区的地下商场。我们之前的研究主要侧重于从地下向地面疏散,忽略了地面疏散。因此,本研究将之前的研究扩展到从地下商场撤离到地面后的水平疏散。研究还考虑了行人过路的影响,将其作为模拟中与车辆交通的互动,以增强真实感并验证疏散风险。研究还探讨了无法使用疏散引导楼梯的情况,比较了疏散计划中替代楼梯的有效性。结果表明,虽然使用替代楼梯能暂时增加到达地面的疏散人数,但疏散路线上的道路交叉口会成为重大瓶颈,导致地面拥堵和疏散延迟。这使人们对替代楼梯的有效性产生怀疑,并突出了将替代疏散路线作为次要计划的必要性。此外,研究还显示,道路交叉口行人流量的减少会对疏散时间产生重大影响。最终,这项研究表明,要在短时间内从地下商场疏散到地面并不总是最佳的疏散计划。它强调了在疏散规划中考虑地面因素的重要性,以确保地震引发海啸时的安全。
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引用次数: 0
Special Issue on Literacy for Disaster Resilience: Building a Societal Capacity for Reducing Disasters Due to Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption 抗灾能力扫盲特刊:建设减少地震和火山爆发灾害的社会能力
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0017
Makoto Takahashi, Naoyuki Kato
The national earthquake and national volcanic eruption prediction programs of Japan started in 1965 and 1974, respectively, based on the recommendation of the Geodesy Council. As a result, observations of seismic and volcanic activity have been enhanced and our understanding of the mechanisms of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions has made significant advances. However, these research results did not fully contribute to mitigating the damage caused by the 1995 Kobe earthquake or the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. In order to make further contributions to disaster mitigation, we recognize the importance of research to apply the scientific understanding of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in collaboration with researchers in related research fields. The Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Observation and Research Program (2014–2018) was thus started on the basis of a recommendation of the Council for Science and Technology. In this Program, research in the area of forecasting the hazards of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions has become one of the main pillars of research. Disaster information and knowledge of the disaster process, which involve the interaction of hazards and natural and social vulnerability, have been investigated in cooperation with earth scientists, engineers, and social scientists. On the basis of our results, research on literacy for disaster resilience was selected as one of the main pillars of research in the Second Observation and Research Program of Earthquake and Volcano Hazards (2019–2023), because a better understanding of and immediate information about disasters are important for disaster mitigation. This special issue, which aims to disseminate the results of almost five years of research activities on literacy for disaster resilience in that Program, includes 15 papers and survey reports from multidisciplinary fields of study. The collection begins with Kimura and Ikeda’s important paper discussing the conceptual structure of the knowledge and abilities necessary to build disaster resilience capacities by analyzing school and community-based efforts, followed by a variety of empirical studies that are loosely categorized into two groups. The first group of papers concerns the understanding of disaster processes and mechanisms themselves as a factor inducing disaster prevention and mitigation. First, Ebina and Sugawara, and Sugimori attempt to learn lessons from the pre-modern earthquake disasters based on past picture maps and scrolled records, respectively, followed by Ohkura’s interesting paper that points to problems in the Aso Volcano disaster mitigation system by analyzing the 2021 phreatic eruption process. Next, utilizing information and communication technology to support effective evacuation, Inoguchi, and Shiozaki and Hashimoto develop a disaster management toolkit and the tsunami drill program, respectively. The following two papers of Takubo et al. discuss behavioral mechanisms in a disaster period based on their
根据大地测量委员会的建议,日本分别于 1965 年和 1974 年开始实施国家地震和国家火山爆发预测计划。因此,对地震和火山活动的观测得到了加强,我们对地震和火山爆发机理的理解也取得了重大进展。然而,这些研究成果并未完全有助于减轻 1995 年神户地震或 2011 年东北地震造成的破坏。为了进一步为减灾做出贡献,我们认识到与相关研究领域的研究人员合作,应用对地震和火山爆发的科学理解进行研究的重要性。因此,根据科学技术委员会的建议,启动了地震和火山灾害观测与研究计划(2014-2018 年)。在该计划中,地震和火山爆发危害预报领域的研究已成为主要研究支柱之一。我们与地球科学家、工程师和社会科学家合作,对灾害信息和灾害过程知识进行了调查,其中涉及灾害与自然和社会脆弱性之间的相互作用。根据我们的研究成果,关于抗灾能力的扫盲研究被选为 "第二个地震和火山灾害观测与研究计划(2019-2023 年)"的主要研究支柱之一,因为更好地了解灾害和有关灾害的即时信息对于减灾非常重要。本特刊旨在传播近五年来该计划中抗灾能力扫盲研究活动的成果,收录了来自多学科研究领域的 15 篇论文和调查报告。论文集以木村(Kimura)和池田(Ikeda)的重要论文开篇,通过分析学校和社区的工作,讨论了培养抗灾能力所需的知识和能力的概念结构,随后是各种实证研究,大致分为两组。第一组论文涉及对灾害过程和机制本身作为防灾减灾诱因的理解。首先,Ebina 和 Sugawara,以及 Sugimori 分别试图根据过去的图片地图和滚动记录,从近代以前的地震灾害中吸取经验教训;随后,Ohkura 发表了一篇有趣的论文,通过分析 2021 年的喷发过程,指出了阿苏火山减灾系统中存在的问题。接下来,Inoguchi 以及 Shiozaki 和 Hashimoto 分别利用信息和通信技术来支持有效疏散,开发了灾害管理工具包和海啸演习程序。接下来,Takubo 等人的两篇论文基于他们的模拟实验,从认知科学的角度探讨了灾害时期的行为机制。第二组研究了提高人们抗灾素养的方法,特别关注科学与民间社会的互动,由 Sawada 和 Sato 以及 Muroi 领衔,他们分别讨论了中小企业和社区组织在南海槽地震和海啸发生前的减灾工作。接下来,Kimura 和 Aikawa 提出了一项教育计划,以提高从未经历过灾害的高中生的灾害意识。此外,四篇论文讨论了人们获取科学知识的问题,重点是大学机构的作用,包括 Yamori、Nakamichi 以及 Sakamoto 和 Nakamichi 对所谓的开放科学计划的案例研究,最后是 Horii 等人对火山地区几个研究中心的比较研究。这些研究论证了 "灾害复原力扫盲 "概念对于将科学知识融入社会、将理论与实践相结合的重要性,但对这一概念的研究,尤其是与地震和火山爆发相关的研究,才刚刚开始。我们希望本期杂志能够鼓励广大科学家、教育和灾害管理专家以及政策制定者开展讨论。
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引用次数: 0
System Development for Tsunami Evacuation Drill Using ICT and Tsunami Inundation Simulation Data 利用信息和通信技术及海啸淹没模拟数据开发海啸疏散演习系统
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0072
D. Shiozaki, Yuichi Hashimoto
This study aims to consider the effects and problems of a tsunami evacuation drill support system that visualizes dynamic tsunami data and evacuees’ locations. The system was developed and operated during a tsunami evacuation drill experiment. The location information application transmits evacuees’ locations in real time using the GPS and network functions of a multi-function terminal. The web application visualizes tsunami data and evacuees’ locations with animation on a web map using WebGIS. By operating the system in the tsunami evacuation experiment, the study could immediately evaluate the evacuation drills through real-time visualization of the evacuees’ actions. Feedback, including the results and evaluations of the evacuation drills, was provided to the participants. Before receiving feedback, 50% of the participants positively evaluated the drill results. However, 42.1% of the participants changed their evaluation to negative after receiving feedback. Additionally, by emphasizing the speed of action during evacuation as one of the important factors for quick evacuation, the system helped to alter participants’ disaster prevention awareness.
本研究旨在考虑海啸疏散演习支持系统的效果和问题,该系统可视化动态海啸数据和疏散人员的位置。该系统是在海啸疏散演习实验中开发和运行的。位置信息应用程序利用多功能终端的 GPS 和网络功能实时传送疏散人员的位置。网络应用程序利用 WebGIS 在网络地图上以动画形式显示海啸数据和疏散人员的位置。通过在海啸疏散实验中操作该系统,研究人员可以通过实时可视化疏散人员的行动,立即对疏散演习进行评估。研究人员向参与者提供了反馈信息,包括疏散演习的结果和评价。在收到反馈之前,50% 的参与者对演习结果给予了积极评价。但在收到反馈后,42.1% 的参与者将评价改为负面。此外,通过强调疏散过程中的行动速度是快速疏散的重要因素之一,该系统有助于改变参与者的防灾意识。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of Direct Damage Caused by the Nankai Trough Earthquake Considering Hazard and Social Characteristics 考虑灾害和社会特征的南海槽地震直接损失估计
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0192
Qinglin Cui, H. Nakamura, Y. Mizui, Hiroyuki Fujiwara
The Nankai Trough Earthquake, which is estimated to have a 70%–80% probability of occurring within the next 30 years, necessitates considering various scenarios due to the extensive seismic source region and call for advancing disaster preparedness measures. Assessing direct damage caused by earthquakes is considered particularly challenging compared to assessing human and physical damage due to its intricate composition. However, the existing research in model analysis aimed at real-time estimation has yielded results, namely, the ability to promptly calculate direct damage from earthquakes using seismic motion and stock quantities as inputs. This study aimed to leverage the research outcomes of real-time estimation to approximate the direct damage costs that would be caused by the Nankai Trough Earthquake. Three hazard assessment cases were selected, based on damage estimations to be attempted. The results indicated that a damage estimation approach based on a common foundation dataset and model analysis considering different occurrence scenarios is more suitable for evaluating results and assessing the importance of mitigation measures than conventional scenario-based damage estimations.
据估计,南海海槽地震在未来 30 年内发生的概率为 70%-80%,由于震源区域广泛,有必要考虑各种情况,并呼吁推进防灾措施。由于地震的构成错综复杂,评估地震造成的直接损失与评估人员和物质损失相比尤其具有挑战性。然而,以实时估算为目标的现有模型分析研究已经取得了成果,即能够利用地震运动和存量作为输入,及时计算地震造成的直接损失。本研究旨在利用实时估算的研究成果,估算南海槽地震可能造成的直接损失成本。根据所要进行的损失估计,选择了三个灾害评估案例。结果表明,与传统的基于情景的损失估计相比,基于共同基础数据集和考虑不同发生情景的模型分析的损失估计方法更适合于评估结果和评估减灾措施的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Damage by the 1855 Edo Earthquake and Response to the Disaster—Study Based on Edo Ohjishin no Zu (Picture Scroll of the 1855 Edo Earthquake)— 1855 年江户大地震的损害与灾害应对--基于江户大地震图卷的研究--《江户大地震图卷》(1855 年)--《1855 年江户大地震的损害与灾害应对--基于江户大地震图卷的研究》(1855 年)。
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0038
Reiko Sugimori
The great earthquake in 1855 caused extensive damage to Edo, where the shogunate was located and more than one million people lived. The picture scroll on the subject of this earthquake, Edo Ohjishin no Zu, has been conventionally understood as depicting the general situation in Edo before and after the earthquake. However, an examination of related historical documents reveals that the scroll depicts the specific situation in the area between the Saiwaibashi-mon Gate and the Shiba Residence of the Satsuma Domain up to three months after the earthquake. The depiction of the damage and people’s behavior corresponds well with the descriptions in the historical documents. Edo Ohjishin no Zu shows the damage caused by the earthquake and fire, and the restoration process based on the facts, indicating that restoration progressed to some extent in the town areas during the three months after the earthquake. The premise that made this possible was the experience in dealing with fires that had accumulated in Edo, where fires were common. Although it was the first time for the machi-kaisho offices to provide relief in the wake of an earthquake, they quickly responded to the complex disaster involving fire by drawing on their past experience. Edo Ohjishin no Zu is a historical material that describes the sequence of events from the occurrence of the earthquake to the restoration process and can be used as a reference for disaster response even today.
1855 年的大地震给江户造成了巨大损失,当时幕府所在地江户居住着 100 多万人。以这次地震为主题的画卷《江户大地震图》通常被理解为描绘了地震前后江户的总体情况。然而,通过对相关历史文献的研究发现,画卷描绘的是地震发生后三个月内,西胁门和萨摩藩芝府之间地区的具体情况。卷轴中对受灾情况和人们行为的描绘与历史文献中的描述十分吻合。江户大字新编》展示了地震和火灾造成的损失,以及基于事实的修复过程,表明震后三个月内城镇地区的修复工作取得了一定进展。这一切得以实现的前提是,在火灾频发的江户积累了处理火灾的经验。虽然町会所是第一次在地震后提供救援,但他们凭借以往的经验迅速应对了复杂的火灾灾难。江户大治神之祖》是一部史料,描述了从地震发生到恢复过程中的一系列事件,即使在今天也可作为灾害应对的参考资料。
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引用次数: 0
System Development for Tsunami Evacuation Drill Using ICT and Tsunami Inundation Simulation Data 利用信息和通信技术及海啸淹没模拟数据开发海啸疏散演习系统
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0072
D. Shiozaki, Yuichi Hashimoto
This study aims to consider the effects and problems of a tsunami evacuation drill support system that visualizes dynamic tsunami data and evacuees’ locations. The system was developed and operated during a tsunami evacuation drill experiment. The location information application transmits evacuees’ locations in real time using the GPS and network functions of a multi-function terminal. The web application visualizes tsunami data and evacuees’ locations with animation on a web map using WebGIS. By operating the system in the tsunami evacuation experiment, the study could immediately evaluate the evacuation drills through real-time visualization of the evacuees’ actions. Feedback, including the results and evaluations of the evacuation drills, was provided to the participants. Before receiving feedback, 50% of the participants positively evaluated the drill results. However, 42.1% of the participants changed their evaluation to negative after receiving feedback. Additionally, by emphasizing the speed of action during evacuation as one of the important factors for quick evacuation, the system helped to alter participants’ disaster prevention awareness.
本研究旨在考虑海啸疏散演习支持系统的效果和问题,该系统可视化动态海啸数据和疏散人员的位置。该系统是在海啸疏散演习实验中开发和运行的。位置信息应用程序利用多功能终端的 GPS 和网络功能实时传送疏散人员的位置。网络应用程序利用 WebGIS 在网络地图上以动画形式显示海啸数据和疏散人员的位置。通过在海啸疏散实验中操作该系统,研究人员可以通过实时可视化疏散人员的行动,立即对疏散演习进行评估。研究人员向参与者提供了反馈信息,包括疏散演习的结果和评价。在收到反馈之前,50% 的参与者对演习结果给予了积极评价。但在收到反馈后,42.1% 的参与者将评价改为负面。此外,通过强调疏散过程中的行动速度是快速疏散的重要因素之一,该系统有助于改变参与者的防灾意识。
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引用次数: 0
Open-Door Events of the Sakurajima Volcano Observatory, Kyoto University in the Last Ten Years 京都大学樱岛火山观测站最近十年的开放活动
IF 0.8 Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0147
Haruhisa Nakamichi
Sakurajima Volcano Observatory, with a history exceeding 60 years, is recognized by researchers in Japan and overseas for conducting frontier research centering on Sakurajima, the most active volcano in Japan. It is owned by Kyoto University and represents the university in the surrounding communities. This paper reviews the open-door events, which have been conducted yearly for the last ten years as a part of a university-wide effort by Kyoto University. They make use of the facilities at Sakurajima Volcano Observatory, which aims to enhance the understanding of volcanoes among the general public in collaboration with geo-guides as “boundary workers.”
樱岛火山观测站拥有超过 60 年的历史,以日本最活跃的火山樱岛为中心开展前沿研究,受到日本和海外研究人员的认可。它隶属于京都大学,在周边社区代表着京都大学。作为京都大学全校性活动的一部分,过去十年来每年都举办开放活动,本文对这些活动进行了回顾。这些活动利用樱岛火山观测站的设施,旨在与作为 "边界工作者 "的地质导游合作,提高公众对火山的了解。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Disaster Research
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