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Mean-variance optimization and the cross-section of stock returns 均方差优化与股票收益的横截面
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101130
Vaibhav Lalwani
Currently, popular asset pricing factors utilize ad hoc weighting procedures. By synthesizing mean-variance theory with multi-factor pricing, we generate an asset-pricing factor using optimal portfolio weights that maximize the Sharpe ratio. Our factor works out-of-sample and can be utilized by a real-time investor. We show that the optimal factor is priced in the cross-section of stock returns even after controlling for nine other popular factors in the literature. The optimal factor is priced in international stock markets and can also explain the cross-section of bond returns.
目前,流行的资产定价因素使用临时加权程序。将均值-方差理论与多因素定价理论相结合,利用最优的资产组合权重生成了一个使夏普比率最大化的资产定价因子。我们的因子在样本外工作,可以被实时投资者使用。我们表明,即使在控制了文献中的其他九个流行因素之后,最优因素也在股票收益的横截面中定价。最优因子在国际股票市场上定价,也可以解释债券收益的横截面。
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引用次数: 0
Business expectations and public policies amid exogenous shocks: The COVID-19 case in Latin America 外部冲击下的商业预期和公共政策:拉丁美洲的COVID-19病例
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101125
Paula Margaretic , Santiago Mingo , Agustin Sotelo
How do public policy responses to exogenous shocks shape business expectations? We examine this question in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the impact of two broad types of policy responses: containment policies (e.g., lockdowns and mobility restrictions) and restorative policies (e.g., vaccine rollouts). Using monthly panel data from 42 countries—20 of which are emerging economies—for the period from 2018 to 2021, we test the effects of both domestic and neighboring countries' policies on business expectations. We find that containment policies significantly depress expectations, while restorative policies enhance them. These effects are moderated by country-level institutional factors such as government trust, political orientation, and financial capacity. We also uncover positive spillover effects from containment policies in neighboring countries. In particular, Latin American countries demonstrate great sensitivity to both domestic and neighboring countries' policies, with this sensitivity being moderated by their institutional characteristics. By focusing on business expectations as a forward-looking mechanism and highlighting institutional and regional variation in responses, this study contributes to research on resilience during global crises.
公共政策对外部冲击的反应如何影响商业预期?我们在2019冠状病毒病大流行的背景下研究了这个问题,重点关注两大类政策应对措施的影响:遏制政策(如封锁和流动限制)和恢复性政策(如疫苗推出)。利用来自42个国家(其中20个是新兴经济体)2018年至2021年的月度面板数据,我们检验了国内和邻国政策对商业预期的影响。我们发现,遏制政策大大降低了预期,而恢复性政策则增强了预期。这些影响受到政府信任、政治取向和财政能力等国家层面制度因素的调节。我们还发现了邻国遏制政策的积极溢出效应。特别是拉丁美洲国家对本国和邻国的政策都表现出高度的敏感性,这种敏感性受到其制度特点的缓和。通过将商业预期作为一种前瞻性机制加以关注,并强调应对措施的制度和区域差异,本研究有助于对全球危机期间弹性的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Institutions and the sovereign-bank nexus in the MENA 中东和北非地区的机构和主权银行关系
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101129
Mohamad Faour, Khaled Saad
We examine the role of country-level institutional quality in influencing the interlinkages between sovereign debt and domestic banks, commonly referred to as the sovereign-bank nexus, in the MENA region. Using a panel of 13 MENA countries, we find that stronger institutional quality reduces reliance on domestic banks for sovereign debt. Stronger rule of law, regulatory quality, and control of corruption have the most significant effects in reducing domestic bank holdings of sovereign debt. Consistent with substitution between foreign and domestic creditors, we find that stronger institutional quality is associated with higher holdings of sovereign debt by foreign creditors, and lower holdings by domestic central banks. We also show that stronger institutional quality reduces domestic bank balance sheet exposures to sovereign debt. Our findings remain robust after addressing potential endogeneity concerns using a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach using Lewbel (2012) instruments. Extending our analysis to a broader sample of 96 countries, our results continue to hold, with the impact of institutional quality being more pronounced in the MENA region. Our results highlight the critical role of institutional quality in mitigating the sovereign-bank nexus and enhancing financial stability in the MENA region.
我们研究了国家层面的制度质量在影响中东和北非地区主权债务与国内银行之间相互联系(通常称为主权银行关系)方面的作用。通过对13个中东和北非国家的调查,我们发现更强的机构质量降低了对国内银行主权债务的依赖。加强法治、监管质量和控制腐败对减少国内银行持有的主权债务具有最显著的影响。与国外和国内债权人之间的替代一致,我们发现更强的制度质量与外国债权人持有更高的主权债务和国内央行持有更低的主权债务有关。我们还表明,更强的机构质量降低了国内银行资产负债表上对主权债务的敞口。在使用lebel(2012)工具使用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)方法解决潜在的内质性问题后,我们的研究结果仍然稳健。将我们的分析扩展到96个国家的更广泛样本,我们的结果继续成立,机构质量的影响在中东和北非地区更加明显。我们的研究结果强调了机构质量在缓解主权银行关系和加强中东和北非地区金融稳定方面的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond the headlines: Sentiment divergence and financial distress 在头条新闻之外:情绪分歧和金融困境
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101126
John Garcia
In the age of social media, corporate financial health is increasingly influenced by diverse and often conflicting information signals from social media and traditional news sources. This study introduces sentiment divergence, the difference in sentiment expressed on social media (X, formerly Twitter) versus traditional news media, as a novel predictor of financial distress. Analyzing 1823 U.S. firms from the first quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2021, the results reveal that a one standard deviation increase in sentiment divergence decreases the one-year probability of default by 7-basis points, supporting theories that diverse information enhances market efficiency. Conversely, a one standard deviation increase in the volatility of this divergence increases the default probability by 46-basis points, highlighting the destabilizing influence of fluctuating sentiment, consistent with noise trading theories. Furthermore, heightened institutional investor attention dramatically amplifies financial distress, as a one standard deviation increase in institutional investor attention increases the likelihood of default by 869-basis points, underscoring how herding behavior and informational cascades can amplify financial distress. This study contributes to behavioral finance by demonstrating the complex interplay between information diversity, sentiment volatility, and investor behavior in shaping corporate financial outcomes, offering crucial implications for investors, managers, and regulators.
在社交媒体时代,企业的财务状况越来越受到来自社交媒体和传统新闻来源的多样化且往往相互冲突的信息信号的影响。本研究引入了情绪差异,即社交媒体(X,以前的Twitter)与传统新闻媒体上表达的情绪差异,作为财务困境的新预测指标。分析了2015年第一季度至2021年第一季度的1823家美国公司,结果表明,情绪差异每增加一个标准差,一年期违约概率就会降低7个基点,这支持了信息多样化提高市场效率的理论。相反,这种差异的波动性每增加一个标准差,违约概率就会增加46个基点,突出了情绪波动的不稳定影响,与噪音交易理论相一致。此外,机构投资者关注度的提高极大地放大了金融危机,因为机构投资者关注度每增加一个标准差,违约的可能性就会增加869个基点,这突显了羊群行为和信息级联是如何放大金融危机的。本研究通过展示信息多样性、情绪波动和投资者行为在塑造公司财务结果中的复杂相互作用,为行为金融学做出了贡献,为投资者、管理者和监管机构提供了重要启示。
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引用次数: 0
CFO overseas experience and stock price crash risk CFO海外经验和股价崩盘风险
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101128
Kai Tang , Yuxiang Cheng
As globalization continues to expand, cross-border personnel exchanges are increasing. This paper uses a two-way fixed effects model to empirically study the influence of CFO overseas experience on stock price crash risk (hereafter, crash risk) on the basis of a sample of 4235 listed firms in China's A-share market between 2003 and 2024. We find that CFOs with overseas experience possess greater expertise and skills, higher-order cognition, more effective cognitive structures, and lower overconfidence, which improve the company's investment returns and prevent the continuous accumulation of poor performance, thereby reducing crash risk. Our study suggests that continuing to implement the policy of attracting talent or managers with overseas experience will facilitate the stable development of the capital market. Furthermore, our study highlights that the CFO also plays a key role in a company's investment decisions.
随着全球化的不断发展,跨国人员交流日益增多。本文采用双向固定效应模型,以2003 - 2024年中国a股市场4235家上市公司为样本,实证研究CFO海外经历对股价崩盘风险(以下简称崩盘风险)的影响。我们发现,有海外经历的cfo拥有更强的专业知识和技能、更高层次的认知、更有效的认知结构和更低的过度自信,这提高了公司的投资回报,防止了不良业绩的持续积累,从而降低了崩溃风险。我们的研究表明,继续实施吸引具有海外经验的人才或管理人员的政策将有助于资本市场的稳定发展。此外,我们的研究还强调,首席财务官在公司的投资决策中也起着关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
ESG in the headlines: Media-driven reputational risk and stock performance ESG头条:媒体驱动的声誉风险和股票表现
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101127
Bole Zhou , Wanjun Ge
This study examines the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) reputational risks on stock performance. We use a unique dataset of media-driven ESG reputational risk indicators, covering 4963 Chinese firms from 2009 to 2023. On average, a one-standard-deviation increase in ESG reputational risks is associated with a 4.5 % decrease in simple stock returns, a 14.5 % reduction in excess stock returns relative to the market index, and a 12.2 % decline in excess stock returns compared to peer firms of similar size. These negative effects contradict the traditional risk-return relationship predicted by risk premium theory. Further analysis identifies reduced investor confidence and tighter financing constraints as key mechanisms through which ESG reputational risks negatively affect stock returns. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the negative impact is more pronounced for firms in non-pollution-intensive industries, those facing financing difficulties, and those exposed to environment-related reputational risks.
本研究考察了环境、社会和治理(ESG)声誉风险对股票绩效的影响。我们使用了一个独特的由媒体驱动的ESG声誉风险指标数据集,涵盖了2009年至2023年间4963家中国公司。平均而言,ESG声誉风险每增加一个标准差,就会导致简单股票回报减少4.5%,相对于市场指数而言,超额股票回报减少14.5%,与同等规模的同行公司相比,超额股票回报下降12.2%。这些负面效应与传统风险溢价理论预测的风险-收益关系相矛盾。进一步分析发现,投资者信心下降和融资约束收紧是ESG声誉风险对股票回报产生负面影响的关键机制。异质性分析表明,非污染密集型产业、融资困难企业和环境相关声誉风险企业的负面影响更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign institutional investors and share pledging: Evidence from China's stock market openness reform 境外机构投资者与股权质押:来自中国股市开放改革的证据
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101122
Jin Jiang , Baolong Liu , Rui Ye
This study explores the governing influence of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) on controlling shareholders' share pledging activities. The Shanghai–Hong Kong and the Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect programs represent exogenous shocks to Chinese stock market openness by introducing FIIs. Using a staggered difference-in-differences research design, our results demonstrate that stock market openness caused controlling shareholders at connected firms to be less likely to pledge shares and more likely to inject funds from pledging back into the underlying firm compared with controlling shareholders at unconnected firms. Additional analyses validate our conjecture that the monitoring role of FIIs diminishes connected firms' agency problems. Furthermore, the effects of stock market openness are more significant for nonstate-owned enterprises and firms in regions with strong institutional environments. The results of this study imply that FIIs can act as an effective governance mechanism in emerging markets to improve stock market integrity and protect minority investors.
本研究探讨境外机构投资者对控股股东股权质押行为的治理作用。“沪港通”和“深港通”通过引入境外投资机构,代表了中国股市开放的外生冲击。使用交错差异研究设计,我们的研究结果表明,与非关联公司的控股股东相比,股票市场开放导致关联公司的控股股东更不可能质押股票,更有可能将质押后的资金注入基础公司。进一步的分析证实了我们的猜想,即金融机构的监督作用减少了关联公司的代理问题。此外,在制度环境较强的地区,股票市场开放对非国有企业和企业的影响更为显著。本研究的结果表明,在新兴市场中,金融机构可以作为一种有效的治理机制,提高股票市场的完整性,保护中小投资者。
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引用次数: 0
Does green bond issuance affect firm value? Evidence from China 绿色债券发行是否影响企业价值?来自中国的证据
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101124
Nannan Ban , Xinxin Che , Thomas Walker , Yunfei Zhao
In this article, we contribute to the theoretical and empirical literature on green finance in China by investigating the impact of green bond issuance on firm value, and exploring the moderating effect of green bond financing costs, as well as various other factors. We find that green bond issuance increases firm value from both a market performance and financial performance perspective. This effect varies with respect to regional green finance policies. Additionally, green bond issuance promotes institutional investor ownership. Finally, we observe that green bond financing cost plays a moderating role – mitigating the positive effect of green bond issuance on firm value.
本文通过研究绿色债券发行对企业价值的影响,并探讨绿色债券融资成本以及其他各种因素的调节作用,为中国绿色金融的理论和实证文献做出贡献。我们发现,无论是从市场绩效还是财务绩效的角度来看,绿色债券的发行都增加了企业价值。这种效应因区域绿色金融政策而异。此外,绿色债券的发行促进了机构投资者的所有权。最后,我们观察到绿色债券融资成本具有调节作用——减缓绿色债券发行对企业价值的正向影响。
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引用次数: 0
ESG rating disagreement and the cost of equity capital
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101123
Zhukun Lou , Sujie Li , Jingyi Tong , Jing Zhao
The growing controversy surrounding corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings is increasingly drawing the attention of investors and becoming a focal point in academic research. This paper advances two competing hypotheses concerning the impact of ESG rating disagreement on the cost of equity capital: the confidence channel hypothesis and the information channel hypothesis. Utilizing data from Chinese A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2015 to 2023 as our research sample, this study empirically investigates the effect of ESG rating disagreement on the cost of equity capital and its underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that ESG rating disagreement increases firms' cost of equity capital, a relationship confirmed through extensive robustness tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that ESG rating disagreement elevates the cost of equity capital by undermining investor confidence (the confidence channel), while there is no evidence to support the notion that it reduces the cost of equity capital by decreasing information asymmetry (the information channel). Further analysis demonstrates that in heavily polluting industries, the adverse impact of ESG rating disagreement on the cost of equity capital is more pronounced. However, institutional investors' site visits and analyst coverage can alleviate the negative effects of ESG rating disagreement on the cost of equity capital.
围绕企业环境、社会、支配结构(ESG)评级的争议日益引起投资者的关注,并成为学术研究的焦点。针对ESG评级差异对权益资本成本的影响,本文提出了两个相互竞争的假设:信心渠道假设和信息渠道假设。本文以2015 - 2023年沪深两市a股上市公司数据为研究样本,实证考察了ESG评级差异对股权资本成本的影响及其机制。研究结果表明,ESG评级分歧增加了企业的权益资本成本,这一关系通过广泛的稳健性测试得到了证实。机制分析表明,ESG评级分歧通过削弱投资者信心(信心渠道)提高了权益资本成本,而没有证据支持它通过减少信息不对称(信息渠道)来降低权益资本成本的观点。进一步分析表明,在重污染行业,ESG评级差异对权益资本成本的不利影响更为明显。然而,机构投资者的实地考察和分析师的报道可以缓解ESG评级分歧对股权资本成本的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Financial inclusion, inequality, and retirement trends among older workers 金融普惠、不平等和老年工人的退休趋势
IF 5.5 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2025.101121
Isaac Marcelin , Wei Sun
The study develops a financial inclusion index comprising three dimensions: usage, barriers, and access to financial resources. It employs a two-stage Principal Component Analysis to derive each dimension's weight. This index helps assess the impact of financial inclusion on various factors like ethnic groups, minorities, human capital, retirement, wealth outcomes, and mental well-being. The research uncovers new psychological and sociological impacts of accessing financial products. Households in counties with higher financial inclusion scores are likelier to have increased income, home ownership, and real estate wealth. They are also more prone to generating intergenerational wealth and breaking free from poverty. Financial inclusion contributes to long-term enhancements in wealth and retirement outcomes, benefiting minority groups and genders while also enhancing family and work resilience, reducing stress, and alleviating drug-related issues. The findings carry significant policy implications, such as reducing the wealth gap, improving retirement security, and enhancing socioeconomic results.
该研究开发了一个金融包容性指数,包括三个维度:使用情况、障碍和获得金融资源的途径。它采用两阶段主成分分析来推导每个维度的权重。该指数有助于评估普惠金融对种族群体、少数民族、人力资本、退休、财富结果和心理健康等各种因素的影响。该研究揭示了获取金融产品的新的心理和社会学影响。金融包容性得分较高的县的家庭更有可能增加收入、住房所有权和房地产财富。他们也更容易创造代际财富,摆脱贫困。普惠金融有助于长期改善财富和退休结果,使少数群体和性别受益,同时还能增强家庭和工作韧性,减轻压力,缓解与毒品有关的问题。研究结果具有重要的政策意义,如缩小贫富差距、改善退休保障和提高社会经济效益。
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引用次数: 0
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Global Finance Journal
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