{"title":"The impact of foreign ownership on the performance of Johannesburg Stock Exchange‐listed firms: A blessing or a curse?","authors":"Delane Naidu, A. Charteris, P. Moores-Pitt","doi":"10.1111/saje.12302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12302","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49373485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Byron Botha, Tim Olds, Geordie Reid, Daan Steenkamp, R. Jaarsveld
{"title":"Nowcasting South African gross domestic product using a suite of statistical models","authors":"Byron Botha, Tim Olds, Geordie Reid, Daan Steenkamp, R. Jaarsveld","doi":"10.1111/saje.12298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12298","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42245225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Martins, Jorge Cerdeira, Miguel A. Fonseca, M. Barrie
{"title":"Foreign direct investment determinants in Mano River Union countries: Micro and macro evidence","authors":"R. Martins, Jorge Cerdeira, Miguel A. Fonseca, M. Barrie","doi":"10.1111/saje.12301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12301","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47707108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A single currency for the Economic Community of West Africa? An economic assessment","authors":"João Loureiro, Evaldo Baptista","doi":"10.1111/saje.12299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12299","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44154278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Ujunwa, A. Ujunwa, E. Onah, N. Nwonye, Onyedikachi David Chukwunwike
{"title":"Extending the determinants of currency substitution in Nigeria: Any role for financial innovation?","authors":"A. Ujunwa, A. Ujunwa, E. Onah, N. Nwonye, Onyedikachi David Chukwunwike","doi":"10.1111/saje.12300","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12300","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"63729638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The yield spread of South African to United States 10 year government bonds over the last 5 years has increased substantially to levels approaching those last seen during the mid-1980s. This yield spread increase is replicated in spreads relative to long-term German bonds, as well as for the spread of state owned enterprises (ESKOM) to United States and German bonds. This paper examines the association between the spread and macroeconomic fundamentals over the 1960-2019 sample period, under the GARCH and GARCH-M class of estimators. We find that higher South African economic growth, lower inflation, public and private debt, as well as Rand-Dollar appreciation are all associated with a statistically significantly lower South African - United States yield spread. The strongest impact is associated with the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Mean spread levels do not appear to be influenced by yield volatility. Finally, while there is no evidence of sign bias in the impact of shocks on yield volatility (negative shock impacts are no di¤erent than positive), there is evidence of size bias for both positive and negative shocks: larger shocks have a larger impact on volatility than small, regardless of their sign. Collectively, and even ignoring the impact of private sector leveraging, South Africa’s performance in these macroeconomic fundamentals is associated with an increase in the SA-US yield spread of 363 basis points (since 2012). This constitutes a substantial proportion of the current 741 basis point spread.
{"title":"The South African–United States sovereign bond spread and its association with macroeconomic fundamentals","authors":"J. Fedderke","doi":"10.1111/SAJE.12294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/SAJE.12294","url":null,"abstract":"The yield spread of South African to United States 10 year government bonds over the last 5 years has increased substantially to levels approaching those last seen during the mid-1980s. This yield spread increase is replicated in spreads relative to long-term German bonds, as well as for the spread of state owned enterprises (ESKOM) to United States and German bonds. This paper examines the association between the spread and macroeconomic fundamentals over the 1960-2019 sample period, under the GARCH and GARCH-M class of estimators. We find that higher South African economic growth, lower inflation, public and private debt, as well as Rand-Dollar appreciation are all associated with a statistically significantly lower South African - United States yield spread. The strongest impact is associated with the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Mean spread levels do not appear to be influenced by yield volatility. Finally, while there is no evidence of sign bias in the impact of shocks on yield volatility (negative shock impacts are no di¤erent than positive), there is evidence of size bias for both positive and negative shocks: larger shocks have a larger impact on volatility than small, regardless of their sign. Collectively, and even ignoring the impact of private sector leveraging, South Africa’s performance in these macroeconomic fundamentals is associated with an increase in the SA-US yield spread of 363 basis points (since 2012). This constitutes a substantial proportion of the current 741 basis point spread.","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":"17 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/SAJE.12294","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41268538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper documents the evolution of markups and concentration, detects causality between firm churning and markups/ concentration, and determines the impact of fixed costs on markups. It relies on production data of Eswatini during 1994– 2007 to estimate markups using the production approach. It finds elasticities, markups and concentration to be comparable with other findings elsewhere. Although no causality is found from a regression of markups/concentration to entry/exit dynamics an increase in productivity within high capital stock industries and in fixed costs raises average markups. Further research will focus on markup state dependence, unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous regime switching to enhance understanding of markup pricing.
{"title":"Fixed costs, markups and concentration in Eswatini (Swaziland): A firm‐level analysis of panel data","authors":"Samuel Vika Mhlanga, Neil A. Rankin","doi":"10.1111/saje.12289","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12289","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents the evolution of markups and concentration, detects causality between firm churning and markups/ concentration, and determines the impact of fixed costs on markups. It relies on production data of Eswatini during 1994– 2007 to estimate markups using the production approach. It finds elasticities, markups and concentration to be comparable with other findings elsewhere. Although no causality is found from a regression of markups/concentration to entry/exit dynamics an increase in productivity within high capital stock industries and in fixed costs raises average markups. Further research will focus on markup state dependence, unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous regime switching to enhance understanding of markup pricing.","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/saje.12289","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44871521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Market structure and bank conduct in Lesotho","authors":"Ramaele Moshoeshoe, Katleho E. Thokoa","doi":"10.1111/SAJE.12288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/SAJE.12288","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/SAJE.12288","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47753606","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"BIENNIAL CONFERENCE OF THE ECONOMIC SOCIETY OF SOUTH AFRICA 14‐17 SEPTEMBER 2021","authors":"Anonymous","doi":"10.1111/saje.12295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12295","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":46929,"journal":{"name":"SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/saje.12295","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41544161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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