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A comparison of the role of domestic and international election observers in Zambia’s 2016 and 2021 general elections 国内和国际选举观察员在赞比亚2016年和2021年大选中的作用比较
IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17531055.2022.2235657
O’Brien Kaaba, M. Hinfelaar, Koffi Sawyer
ABSTRACT In this paper, we focus on the role of the institution of external and domestic observers in electoral turnovers. Observers have come under scrutiny in recent years, particularly following their assessments of the Kenya and Malawi elections, for which they raised no serious concerns, but the polls were subsequently annulled by courts on the basis of serious irregularities. By comparing and contrasting the role played by international and domestic observers in Zambia’s general elections in 2016 with those of 2021, it can be shown that observer groups can contribute to positive electoral outcomes and, while not under their remit, can be in a position to facilitate peaceful transitions. While acknowledging that the biggest factor of the smooth transition in Zambia was the huge turnout of voters and the wide margin of the opposition’s victory, election observers played a key role in aiding the democratic transition. This paper contributes to the literature on the role of domestic and international observers by examining key areas of their engagement in Zambia’s last two general elections. The research was carried out through participant observation, a panel survey conducted before and after the 2021 elections and interviews with stakeholders.
摘要在本文中,我们重点研究了国内外观察员机构在选举失误中的作用。近年来,观察员受到了审查,特别是在他们对肯尼亚和马拉维选举进行评估后,他们对此没有提出严重关切,但随后法院以严重违规为由宣布投票无效。通过比较和对比国际和国内观察员在赞比亚2016年大选和2021年大选中发挥的作用,可以表明,观察员团体可以为积极的选举结果做出贡献,虽然不在其职权范围内,但可以促进和平过渡。选举观察员承认赞比亚平稳过渡的最大因素是选民的巨大投票率和反对派的巨大胜利优势,但他们在协助民主过渡方面发挥了关键作用。本文通过研究国内和国际观察员参与赞比亚最近两次大选的关键领域,为有关国内和国际观察者作用的文献做出了贡献。这项研究是通过参与者观察、2021年选举前后进行的小组调查以及对利益相关者的采访进行的。
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引用次数: 2
Overcoming incumbency advantage: the importance of social media on- and offline in Zambia’s 2021 elections 克服在位优势:社交媒体在赞比亚2021年选举中的重要性
IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17531055.2023.2232241
Gabrielle Lynch, Elena Gadjanovaa
ABSTRACT President Edgar Lungu and the Patriotic Front used a range of incumbency advantages to tilt the playing field in their favour in the run-up to Zambia’s 2021 elections and, as a result, were more visible offline than the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) and its flagbearer, Hakainde Hichilema. In this paper, we draw on an original survey of party officials and activists and semi-structured interviews to consider the role of social media in the UPND’s victory. We show how the two dominant political parties invested heavily in social media, but how the UPND’s online messaging proved more persuasive and spread offline, and how social media facilitated the UPND’s political mobilisation and vote protection efforts in the face of a highly uneven playing field. Social media thus played an important role in unseating the incumbent, but not because the election was won online, or because social media provided a uniquely “social” form of communication. Instead, social media helped to facilitate the flow of information across a heavily controlled media ecosystem in which face-to-face communication remained key. In making this argument, we highlight the significant impact of social media on users and non-users alike, even in a context of relatively low internet penetration.
摘要总统埃德加·伦古和爱国阵线利用一系列在职优势,在赞比亚2021年大选前夕将竞争环境向有利于他们的方向倾斜,因此,他们在离线时比反对党国家发展联合党及其旗手哈坎德·希奇莱马更为明显。在本文中,我们利用对党内官员和活动人士的原始调查和半结构化采访,来考虑社交媒体在UPND胜利中的作用。我们展示了两个占主导地位的政党是如何在社交媒体上投入巨资的,但事实证明,UPND的在线信息更具说服力,并在线下传播,以及社交媒体是如何在高度不均衡的竞争环境下促进UPND的政治动员和选票保护工作的。因此,社交媒体在罢免现任总统方面发挥了重要作用,但这并不是因为选举是在网上赢得的,也不是因为社交媒体提供了一种独特的“社交”交流形式。相反,社交媒体有助于促进信息在严格控制的媒体生态系统中的流动,在这个生态系统中,面对面交流仍然是关键。在提出这一论点时,我们强调了社交媒体对用户和非用户的重大影响,即使在互联网渗透率相对较低的情况下也是如此。
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引用次数: 3
Legal autocratisation ahead of the 2021 Zambian elections 2021年赞比亚大选前的法律独裁
IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17531055.2022.2235658
M. Hinfelaar, L. Rakner, Sishuwa Sishuwa, Nicolas van de Walle
ABSTRACT Zambia experienced an episode of distinct democratic backsliding between 2011 and 2021. Autocratisation resulted from the deliberate use of legal mechanisms to enhance executive power. Tracing key legal changes through legal documents, press reports and informant interviews, the article examines this recent episode of autocratisation as a consequence of a poorly institutionalised party system in a fledgling and unconsolidated presidential democracy. We show that under PF rule, autocratisation resulted from the deliberate use of legal mechanisms to enhance executive power, stifle the opposition, muzzle the press and undermine civil society forces. The election of opposition candidate Hakainde Hichilema in August 2021 may have ended this episode of backsliding as for the third time in the country´s history, power changed peacefully through the ballot box. But, to what extent the 2021 elections will move Zambia away from this authoritarian trend is uncertain as the state of the country’s political institutions, hereunder a poorly institutionalised party system in an unconsolidated presidential democracy, may leave it vulnerable to further episodes of backsliding. The main contribution of this paper is the documentation of the role of lawfare in processes of autocratisation, and how integral it has been to the decline of democracy in Zambia.
摘要2011年至2021年间,赞比亚经历了一次明显的民主倒退。专制是蓄意利用法律机制来增强行政权力的结果。这篇文章通过法律文件、新闻报道和线人采访追踪了关键的法律变化,探讨了最近的这一独裁事件,这是一个刚刚起步、松散的总统民主国家中制度化不力的政党制度造成的。我们表明,在爱国阵线的统治下,独裁是故意使用法律机制来增强行政权力、扼杀反对派、压制媒体和破坏民间社会力量的结果。2021年8月反对派候选人哈坎德·希奇莱马的当选可能结束了这一倒退,因为这是该国历史上第三次通过投票箱和平改变权力。但是,2021年的选举将在多大程度上使赞比亚摆脱这一独裁趋势尚不确定,因为该国政治机构的状况,在一个松散的总统民主国家中,政党制度化程度很差,可能会使其容易出现进一步的倒退。本文的主要贡献是记录法律战在独裁过程中的作用,以及它对赞比亚民主衰落的影响。
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引用次数: 6
Incumbent disadvantage in a swing province: Eastern Province in Zambia’s 2021 general election 摇摆省现任者的劣势:赞比亚2021年大选中的东部省
IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17531055.2023.2233728
J. Seekings
ABSTRACT Might incumbency entail disadvantages as well as advantages? This article examines the performance of incumbent president Edgar Lungu and the Patriotic Front (PF) in Zambia's Eastern Province in the 2021 election. Eastern Province was a ‘swing’ region in that neither of the two major national political parties had deep-rooted support, despite Lungu's and the PF's strong performance in 2015-16. Survey data shows that voters punished the incumbent government in 2021 for its poor management of the economy (and, to a lesser extent, corruption). Interviews with provincial politicians and documentary sources reveal the challenges facing the incumbent in maintaining the coalition that had brought it electoral success in 2015-16. The case of Eastern Province illustrates how, in such swing regions, incumbency can be a disadvantage as well as an advantage, as the incumbent president is held responsible for the state of the economy and the opportunities to local elites. In countries where national electoral success requires winning decisively in such swing regions, even incumbent presidents and parties face a significant possibility of electoral defeat.
摘要在职既有优点,也有缺点吗?本文考察了赞比亚东部省现任总统埃德加·伦古和爱国阵线在2021年选举中的表现。东部省是一个“摇摆”地区,尽管伦古和爱国阵线在2015-16年表现强劲,但两个主要的国家政党都没有得到根深蒂固的支持。调查数据显示,2021年,选民因现任政府对经济管理不善(以及在较小程度上的腐败)而对其进行了惩罚。对省级政客和文件来源的采访揭示了现任总统在维持联盟方面面临的挑战,该联盟曾在2015-16年的选举中取得成功。东部省的情况表明,在这些摇摆不定的地区,现任总统既有优势,也有劣势,因为现任总统要对经济状况和地方精英的机会负责。在国家选举的成功需要在这些摇摆地区取得决定性胜利的国家,即使是现任总统和政党也面临着选举失败的巨大可能性。
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引用次数: 5
The urban vote in Zambia’s 2021 elections: popular attitudes towards the economy in Copperbelt and Lusaka 赞比亚2021年选举中的城市投票:铜带和卢萨卡对经济的普遍态度
IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17531055.2022.2236474
Hangala Siachiwena
ABSTRACT This article analyses Afrobarometer survey data to understand popular attitudes toward the economy of Zambia amongst residents in the ruling party strongholds. The Patriotic Front (PF) won the most votes in urban provinces from 2006 to 2016 but crucially lost to the opposition in 2021 while retaining majorities in its rural base. Historically, opposition parties have won the most votes in urban regions on every occasion that Zambia has experienced an electoral turnover, demonstrating the significance of the urban vote. The evidence presented in this article reveals that respondents in the two urban provinces, Copperbelt and Lusaka, were better educated, had more access to essential services, and had higher levels of access to Information relative to their compatriots in the PF’s rural strongholds. While both urban and rural residents were dissatisfied with the government’s handling of the economy, the PF’s urban base was more likely to punish the ruling party at the polls. Drawing on survey evidence and literature on voting in urban Africa, this article shows that the divergent geographic, social, and economic characteristics of urban and rural areas produce distinct grievances which have implications for policy expectations, political mobilization, and how voters evaluate candidates.
摘要本文分析了Afrobarometer的调查数据,以了解执政党大本营居民对赞比亚经济的普遍态度。爱国阵线(PF)从2006年到2016年在城市省份赢得了最多的选票,但在2021年输给了反对派,同时在其农村基础上保持了多数席位。从历史上看,每当赞比亚发生选举更替时,反对党都会在城市地区赢得最多的选票,这表明了城市选票的重要性。这篇文章中提供的证据表明,铜带和卢萨卡这两个城市省份的受访者与他们在爱国阵线农村据点的同胞相比,受教育程度更高,获得基本服务的机会更多,获得信息的机会更高。虽然城市和农村居民都对政府处理经济的方式感到不满,但爱国阵线的城市基础更有可能在投票中惩罚执政党。根据非洲城市投票的调查证据和文献,本文表明,城市和农村地区不同的地理、社会和经济特征产生了不同的不满,这对政策预期、政治动员以及选民如何评价候选人都有影响。
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引用次数: 3
‘The outcome of a historical process set in motion in 1991’: explaining the failure of incumbency advantage in Zambia’s 2021 election “1991年启动的历史进程的结果”:解释赞比亚2021年选举中在职优势的失败
IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17531055.2022.2236850
Sishuwa Sishuwa
ABSTRACT This article uses a longitudinal comparative perspective to analyse Zambia's 2021 transfer of power. The article takes the previous elections since the transition to multi-party democracy in 1991 as a body in which patterns of incumbency failure can be seen. It identifies five pervasive patterns that seem present in all polls that have resulted in leadership change or turnovers: a struggling economy with a clear blame orientation, a unified opposition, a depoliticised military, a rather impartial electoral commission, and collective memory of incumbent defeat. The importance of each of these factors varies over time, but collectively they shape election outcomes in decisive ways. Drawing on interviews and newspaper sources, I apply these variables to the 2021 election that resulted in the defeat of President Edgar Lungu and the victory of the opposition candidate. I argue that the repeated failure of incumbency advantage in Zambia reflects the institutionalisation of democratic processes, notably embodied in competitive elections, an increasingly independent electoral commission, effective opposition parties that can devise robust campaign strategies, and a military that continues to choose non- intervention whenever an incumbent is defeated. More broadly, I demonstrate why alternation is becoming routine while the power of incumbency is in decline.
本文采用纵向比较的视角来分析赞比亚2021年的权力转移。这篇文章把1991年向多党民主过渡以来的历次选举作为一个整体,从中可以看出在任者失败的模式。它指出了五种普遍的模式,这些模式似乎出现在所有导致领导层更迭或更替的民意调查中:经济陷入困境,明确的指责导向,统一的反对派,非政治化的军队,相当公正的选举委员会,以及对现任者失败的集体记忆。这些因素的重要性随着时间的推移而变化,但总的来说,它们以决定性的方式影响着选举结果。根据采访和报纸资料,我将这些变量应用于2021年的选举,结果是总统埃德加·伦古(Edgar Lungu)失败,反对派候选人获胜。我认为,在任者优势在赞比亚的一再失败反映了民主进程的制度化,特别是体现在竞争性选举、日益独立的选举委员会、能够制定强有力的竞选策略的有效反对党,以及在任者被击败时继续选择不干预的军队。更广泛地说,我论证了为什么交替正在成为惯例,而在任者的权力正在下降。
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引用次数: 2
‘Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s and unto God the things that are God’s’? Making sense of tax non-compliance among small business owners in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia “把凯撒的东西归凯撒,把上帝的东西归上帝”?理解埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴小企业主的税务违规行为
IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17531055.2023.2193780
C. Pellerin, J. Söderström
ABSTRACT Taxation practices are embedded in a complex web of institutional and social factors, norms and values, some of which encourage, some of which depress tax compliance. Rather than simply constituting a revenue generating practice, taxation also represents a powerful tool to govern citizens. Studying the everyday practices of paying taxes means analysing how tax rules are applied, respected, contested and subverted in real life. Contributing to a growing canon on the social practices of taxation, this article asks: How do small- and medium-sized business owners navigate their relationship with tax authorities and attempt to make sense of their compliance and non-compliance? Through an in-depth study of the everyday practices of taxpaying in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa using interviews with business owners, this article demonstrates that taxpayers apply two different forms of reasoning to describe their taxation practices, a business logic and an emotional response. Taxation practices are governed by the double aim of reducing the financial, as well as the emotional burden associated with paying taxes.
摘要税务实践嵌入了一个由制度和社会因素、规范和价值观组成的复杂网络中,其中一些因素鼓励纳税,另一些因素抑制纳税。税收不仅仅是一种创收行为,也是治理公民的有力工具。研究日常纳税实践意味着分析税收规则在现实生活中是如何被应用、尊重、质疑和颠覆的。这篇文章提出了一个问题:中小型企业主如何处理他们与税务机关的关系,并试图理解他们的合规和不合规?本文通过对企业主的采访,对埃塞俄比亚首都亚的斯亚贝巴的日常纳税实践进行了深入研究,表明纳税人运用两种不同形式的推理来描述他们的纳税实践,一种是商业逻辑,另一种是情感反应。税务实践的双重目的是减少与纳税相关的财务负担和情感负担。
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引用次数: 0
Adolescents’ capabilities and aspirations across gender and generations in Amhara, Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚阿姆哈拉跨性别、跨世代青少年的能力和愿望
IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17531055.2022.2162191
Bethelihem Gebre Alwab, Els Lecoutere, N. Jones
ABSTRACT Insights into the role of changing historical-political-cultural contexts and social norms in shaping adolescent girls’ and boys’ futures contributes to an understanding of human development at the intersection of gender and youth in low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the capabilities and aspirations of adolescent girls and boys and their evolution in Amhara against the background of three successive political regimes that governed Ethiopia over the last 90 years, the Haile-Selassie imperial regime (1930–1974), the socialist military Derg regime (1974–1991), and the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (1991–2019), each with their own institutions, structures and infrastructure, and gender- and age-related relations and norms. The study adopts a capability approach with a gender and generationing development lens as a framework and relies on qualitative data collected through community- and mixed-generation group discussions. The study illustrates that, even if institutional and structural barriers became less stringent over time, cumulative gender- and age-related obstacles – some rooted in beliefs, norms, traditions and relations – hindered the expansion of adolescents’ capability success, consistently more so for girls than boys. (The threat of) gender-based violence pervasively constrains girls’ capabilities success and aspirations in spite of more formal protective institutions.
深入了解不断变化的历史政治文化背景和社会规范在塑造青少年女孩和男孩未来方面的作用,有助于理解低收入和中等收入国家性别与青年交叉的人类发展。本研究调查了阿姆哈拉地区青春期女孩和男孩的能力和愿望,以及他们在过去90年中统治埃塞俄比亚的三个连续政治政权的背景下的演变,即海尔·塞拉西帝国政权(1930–1974)、社会主义军事德格政权(1974–1991)和埃塞俄比亚人民革命民主阵线(1991–2019),每个人都有自己的机构、结构和基础设施,以及与性别和年龄相关的关系和规范。该研究采用了以性别和代际发展视角为框架的能力方法,并依赖于通过社区和混合代际小组讨论收集的定性数据。这项研究表明,即使制度和结构障碍随着时间的推移变得不那么严格,但累积的性别和年龄相关障碍——其中一些根源于信仰、规范、传统和关系——阻碍了青少年能力成功的扩展,女孩一直比男孩更难。尽管有更正式的保护机构,但基于性别的暴力的威胁普遍限制了女孩的能力、成功和愿望。
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引用次数: 0
The leasehold system and drivers of informal land transactions in Bahir Dar city, Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚巴希尔达尔市的租赁制度和非正式土地交易的驱动因素
IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17531055.2022.2164428
Wolelaw Getahun Derso, Brightman Gebremichael
ABSTRACT In Ethiopia, informal land transactions are proliferating in urban centers and triggering wider socio-economic and environmental challenges in the sustainable development of cities. Taking the case of Bahir Dar city, this paper examines informal land transactions in Ethiopia in terms of its rule-structuring processes, roles of actors in the transaction, and factors for its emergence and continued proliferation. Empirical evidence collected through key informant interviews, participant observation, and from secondary sources were analyzed qualitatively. The study reveals that the lease system in Ethiopia is ill-suited to the interests and reality of many urban dwellers and is unable to meet their needs. As a response to the failures of the lease system, residents are increasingly turning to informal land transactions. The success of informal land markets in Bahir Dar is reinforced by the possibility of formalization of land holdings through corrupt practices in local land administration. Moreover, the processes of the informal markets have provided adaptive and responsive alternatives for urban dwellers to access land. Unless land administration shifts to adapt to these realities, informal markets will likely continue to thrive.
在埃塞俄比亚,城市中心的非正式土地交易正在激增,并引发了城市可持续发展中更广泛的社会经济和环境挑战。本文以巴希尔达尔市为例,从规则构建过程、交易参与者的角色以及其出现和持续扩散的因素等方面考察了埃塞俄比亚的非正式土地交易。通过关键举报人访谈、参与者观察和二手来源收集的经验证据进行了定性分析。研究表明,埃塞俄比亚的租赁制度不适合许多城市居民的利益和现实,无法满足他们的需求。作为对租赁制度失败的回应,居民越来越多地转向非正式的土地交易。由于地方土地管理中的腐败行为,使土地持有正规化的可能性加强了Bahir Dar非正规土地市场的成功。此外,非正规市场的进程为城市居民获得土地提供了适应性强和反应迅速的选择。除非土地管理部门做出改变以适应这些现实,否则非正规市场可能会继续蓬勃发展。
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引用次数: 1
The electoral strategies of ethnic socio-cultural associations in former Katanga province, the Democratic Republic of Congo (2006–2019) 刚果民主共和国前加丹加省少数民族社会文化协会的选举策略(2006-2019)
IF 1.4 3区 社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17531055.2022.2162838
E. Gobbers
ABSTRACT The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) held multi-party elections in 2006, 2011 and 2018. This paper highlights that ethnic socio-cultural associations in former Katanga province have been politically involved in the DRC’s electoral process. Such associations were originally founded in cities to organise mutual aid among migrants hailing from the same region. The attractiveness of ethnicity as a frame of reference for the electorate seems to increase in the context of a weak state failing to deliver public goods. Ethnicity potentially influences voting behaviour in the DRC, as it is assumed that in return for votes, elected elites will prioritise their ethnic community. The ruling PPRD party has instrumentalised ethnic associations in Katanga to support Joseph Kabila’s presidential candidacy, as well as legislative candidates of the presidential majority. These ethnic associations have in turn tried to influence the outcome of elections in favour of their communities, e.g. by limiting the number of co-ethnic candidates per constituency to avoid ethnic vote splitting and thereby maximising the chances of success for candidates from their own group. Their efforts have not always been successful; elections enable voters to hold elites accountable for not keeping their promises once elected.
摘要刚果民主共和国于2006年、2011年和2018年举行了多党选举。本文强调,前加丹加省的少数民族社会文化协会在政治上参与了刚果民主共和国的选举进程。这些协会最初成立于城市,旨在组织来自同一地区的移民之间的互助。在一个软弱的国家未能提供公共产品的背景下,种族作为选民参考框架的吸引力似乎有所增加。种族可能会影响刚果民主共和国的投票行为,因为人们认为,作为选票的回报,民选精英将优先考虑他们的种族社区。执政党人民大会党利用加丹加的种族协会来支持约瑟夫·卡比拉的总统候选人资格,以及总统多数派的立法候选人。这些族裔协会反过来试图影响有利于其社区的选举结果,例如限制每个选区的同族裔候选人数量,以避免族裔选票分裂,从而最大限度地提高本群体候选人的成功机会。他们的努力并不总是成功的;选举使选民能够追究精英当选后不履行承诺的责任。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Eastern African Studies
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