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Diffusion of crime control benefits: forced eradication and coca crops in Colombia 犯罪控制效益的扩散:哥伦比亚的强制根除和古柯作物
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2151642
L. Morales, Eleonora Dávalos
ABSTRACT One explanation for the increasing number of hectares of coca is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study integrates georeferenced agricultural data through spatially explicit econometric models to test the hypothesis that forced eradication displaces coca crops. Using annual data for 1116 contiguous municipalities in Colombia, we estimate a spatial Durbin error model. Our results suggest that, on average, aerial fumigation in a municipality diffuses the benefits of this crime control strategy to neighbouring municipalities.
古柯种植面积不断增加的一种解释是,根除策略取代了古柯作物,但未能完全清除受影响的地区。在药物政策文献中,这种动态变化通常被称为气球效应。这项研究通过空间显式计量经济模型整合了地理参考农业数据,以检验强迫根除取代古柯作物的假设。利用哥伦比亚1116个相邻城市的年度数据,我们估计了一个空间Durbin误差模型。我们的研究结果表明,平均而言,一个城市的空中熏蒸会将这种犯罪控制策略的好处扩散到邻近的城市。
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引用次数: 1
The relationship between mobile broadband usage and user mobility with lockdown restrictions in Spain 西班牙封锁限制下移动宽带使用与用户流动性之间的关系
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-23 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2144640
Ignacio García-Manrique Ocaña, Ó. Marcenaro-Gutierrez, L. López-Agudo
ABSTRACT This paper studies how COVID-19 lockdown restrictions encouraged and allowed people to form habits of increased mobile phone usage in Spain, even after the most restrictive measures were lifted. We have used data from the mobile network of a national telecommunications operator to study the influence of 15 different mobility restrictions on citizens’ use of mobile phones from 15 March 2020 to 15 April 2021 in a big Spanish city. In order to approach this issue, a quasi-experimental technique (before and after methodology) was implemented. We found that the use of smartphones presented an initial reduction with the first and most drastic mobility restrictions, but showed a growing use after their removal. However, user mobility was negatively influenced by all the mobility restrictions.
摘要本文研究了新冠肺炎封锁限制如何鼓励和允许人们在西班牙形成增加手机使用的习惯,即使在最严格的限制措施解除后也是如此。我们使用了一家国家电信运营商移动网络的数据,研究了2020年3月15日至2021年4月15日期间,西班牙一个大城市15种不同的移动限制对公民使用手机的影响。为了解决这个问题,实施了一种准实验技术(在方法论之前和之后)。我们发现,随着第一次也是最严厉的行动限制,智能手机的使用量最初有所减少,但在取消后,使用量有所增加。然而,用户的移动性受到所有移动性限制的负面影响。
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引用次数: 1
Heterogeneous spatial dynamic panels with an application to US housing data 应用于美国住房数据的异质空间动态面板
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-26 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2118363
Yong Bao, Xiao Zhou
ABSTRACT This paper proposes two models that incorporate both heterogeneity and multiple sources of spatial correlation for dynamic panels. One uses convex combinations of them to form a single weight matrix. The second one includes explicitly different spatial weight matrices to form a higher order model. We use a Bayesian scheme for model estimation by deriving the full conditional distributions of heterogeneous parameters. Our Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate their finite-sample performance relative to a baseline model. In our empirical study we find the importance of including both geographical and non-geographical information in capturing correlations in real house price growth in the United States.
摘要本文提出了两个模型,这两个模型结合了动态面板的异质性和多个空间相关性来源。使用它们的凸组合来形成单个权重矩阵。第二个模型包括明确不同的空间权重矩阵以形成更高阶模型。我们通过推导异质参数的全条件分布,使用贝叶斯方案进行模型估计。我们的蒙特卡罗实验证明了它们相对于基线模型的有限样本性能。在我们的实证研究中,我们发现包括地理和非地理信息在捕捉美国实际房价增长相关性方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
The rise and spread of female labour force participation at the US county level 美国县一级女性劳动力参与率的上升和扩大
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-14 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2123111
Ioanna Tziolas, J. Elhorst
ABSTRACT In 2011, Fogli and Veldkamp adopted a time–space recursive spatial econometric model to investigate whether the female labour force participation rate varies with past participation rates in their own and in contiguous US counties, based on decennial data over the period 1940–2000, but their results are problematic. The applied estimators are different from the provided descriptions, the predicted contributions of the control variables are not in line with expectations, and the coefficients of the temporal and spatiotemporal lags of the dependent variable indicate instability. This replication study demonstrates that a dynamic spatial econometric model with common factors yields more convincing results in favour of the postulated model.
2011年,Fogli和Veldkamp采用了一个时空递归的空间计量经济学模型,基于1940-2000年期间的十年数据,研究了他们自己和美国相邻县的女性劳动力参与率是否随过去的参与率而变化,但他们的结果存在问题。应用的估计量与提供的描述不同,控制变量的预测贡献与期望不一致,因变量的时间和时空滞后系数表明不稳定。这项重复性研究表明,具有共同因素的动态空间计量经济模型产生了更令人信服的结果,有利于假设模型。
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引用次数: 1
Do public libraries impact local labour markets? Evidence from Appalachia 公共图书馆会影响当地劳动力市场吗?阿巴拉契亚的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-07 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2123552
A. B. Ferreira Neto
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the effect of public library programmes and participation on unemployment and labour force participation in Appalachia. Appalachia is an economically distressed area, mostly rural, and with a sustained lower level of labour force participation and a higher level of unemployment. As public library programmes can be cyclical to business cycles, that is, labour market outcomes, I use public library staff and the amount computers available as instruments. While ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates show no effect of adult or children’s programmes and participation on local labour market outcomes, spatial econometric estimates provide evidence of direct and indirect effects of adults programmes and participation on labour force participation.
摘要本文调查了阿巴拉契亚公共图书馆项目和参与对失业和劳动力参与的影响。阿巴拉契亚是一个经济困难地区,主要是农村地区,劳动力参与率持续较低,失业率较高。由于公共图书馆项目可能是商业周期的周期性项目,也就是劳动力市场的结果,我使用公共图书馆的工作人员和可用的计算机数量作为工具。虽然普通最小二乘法估计显示成人或儿童方案和参与对当地劳动力市场结果没有影响,但空间计量经济学估计提供了成人方案和参与直接和间接影响劳动力参与的证据。
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引用次数: 1
Bayesian inference in spatial GARCH models: an application to US house price returns 空间GARCH模型中的贝叶斯推理:在美国房价回报中的应用
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-07 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2123553
Osman Doğan, Suleyman Taspinar
ABSTRACT In this paper we consider a high-order spatial generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to account for the volatility clustering patterns observed over space. The model consists of a log-volatility equation that includes the high-order spatial lags of the log-volatility term and the squared outcome variable. We use a transformation approach to turn the model into a mixture of normals model, and then introduce a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation approach coupled with a data-augmentation technique. Our simulation results show that the Bayesian estimator has good finite sample properties. We apply a first-order version of the spatial GARCH model to US house price returns at the metropolitan statistical area level over the period 2006Q1–2013Q4 and show that there is significant variation in the log-volatility estimates over space in each period.
本文考虑了一个高阶空间广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型来解释在空间上观测到的波动性聚类模式。该模型由一个对数波动方程组成,该方程包含对数波动项的高阶空间滞后和结果变量的平方。采用变换方法将模型转化为混合正态模型,然后引入贝叶斯马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)估计方法和数据增强技术。仿真结果表明,贝叶斯估计器具有良好的有限样本特性。我们将空间GARCH模型的一阶版本应用于2006Q1-2013Q4期间大都市统计区域水平的美国房价回报,并表明每个时期的对数波动率估计在空间上存在显着变化。
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引用次数: 2
Spatial Economic Analysis 空间经济分析
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2131286
L. Corrado, P. Amaral, L. Dijkstra, Dg Regio, E. V. Leeuwen, Özge Öner, G. Ottaviano
Co-editors: Maria Abreu, University of Cambridge, UK Pedro V. Amaral, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil Arnab Bhattacharjee, Heriot-Watt University, UK Steven Bond-Smith, University of Hawai’i at Manoa, USA Coro Chasco, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain Jan Ditzen (Digital Media Editor), Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy Daniel Felsenstein, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel Franz Fuerst, University of Cambridge, UK Philip McCann, Alliance Manchester Business School, Manchester University, UK Vassilis Monastiriotis, London School of Economics, UK Francesco Quatraro, University of Torino, Italy Umed Temursho, IOpedia, Spain and University of Central Asia, Kyrgyz Republic Dimitrios Tsiotas, Agricultural University of Athens, Greece Jihai Yu, Peking University, China
联合编辑:Maria Abreu,英国剑桥大学Pedro V.Amaral,米纳斯吉拉斯联邦大学,巴西Arnab Bhattacharjee,赫里奥特-瓦特大学,英国Steven Bond Smith,夏威夷大学马诺阿分校,美国Coro Chasco,马德里大学,西班牙Jan Ditzen(数字媒体编辑),意大利博岑-博尔扎诺自由大学Daniel Felsenstein,耶路撒冷希伯来大学,以色列Franz Fuerst,英国剑桥大学Philip McCann,曼彻斯特大学曼彻斯特商学院联盟,英国Vassilis Monastriotis,伦敦经济学院,英国Francesco Quatraro,意大利都灵大学Umed Temursho,IOpedia,西班牙和中亚大学,吉尔吉斯共和国Dimitrios Tsiotas,雅典农业大学,希腊Jihai Yu,北京大学,中国
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引用次数: 0
A minimum-disruption approach to input–output disaster analysis 投入产出灾难分析的最小干扰方法
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2056231
Mengyu Li, M. Lenzen, L. Pedauga, Arunima Malik
ABSTRACT The frequency of disasters has been increasing over the past decades, fuelled by natural phenomena and climate-related events. Policymakers require robust methodologies to assess supply-chain impacts of disasters. Input–output-based disaster approaches are able to assess such impacts; however, they rely on some assumptions, such as the fixed production-recipe assumption for industries or the possibility of negative final demand. This study presents an improved disaster analysis approach, called minimum disruption, in order to assess more realistically the impacts of a disaster on essential and non-essential sectors. In particular, we propose a priority-weighted approach for incorporating decision-makers’ priorities for transitioning economies to post-disaster equilibrium. We showcase the new approach by modelling the actual occurrences during Venezuela’s economic crises.
在过去的几十年里,由于自然现象和气候相关事件的加剧,灾害的频率一直在增加。决策者需要强有力的方法来评估灾害对供应链的影响。基于投入产出的灾害方法能够评估这种影响;然而,它们依赖于一些假设,例如工业的固定生产配方假设或负最终需求的可能性。本研究提出了一种改进的灾害分析方法,称为最小干扰,以便更现实地评估灾害对必要和非必要部门的影响。特别是,我们提出了一种优先加权方法,将决策者的优先事项纳入经济转型到灾后平衡。我们通过模拟委内瑞拉经济危机期间的实际情况,展示了这种新方法。
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引用次数: 1
Raising the bar (22) 提高标准(22)
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2125177
P. Elhorst, M. Abreu, P. Amaral, A. Bhattacharjee, Steven Bond‐Smith, C. Chasco, L. Corrado, J. Ditzen, D. Felsenstein, F. Fuerst, P. McCann, V. Monastiriotis, F. Quatraro, Umed Temursho, D. Tsiotas, Jihai Yu
ABSTRACT This editorial summarizes the papers in issue 17(4) (2022). The first paper combines input–output modelling with priority weighting to analyse supply-chain impacts of disasters. The second paper examines skill-based functional specialization of value chains in Brazil using interregional and international value-added measures. The third paper questions the common belief that agglomeration economies are the driving force behind cluster formation using an agent-based model. The fourth paper applies modern instrumental variables techniques to measure the impact of forced migration flows from Venezuela to Colombia on house prices. The fifth paper explores the impact of an ageing population on per capita labour income, consumption and wealth at the regional level using a multivariate spatial econometric model. The sixth paper examines the impact of neighbouring countries on migrants’ aggregate decisions to remit based on an advanced spatial econometric origin–destination model.
摘要:这篇社论总结了2022年第17(4)期的论文。第一篇论文将投入产出模型与优先级加权相结合,分析灾害对供应链的影响。第二篇论文研究了巴西利用区域间和国际增值措施实现的基于技能的价值链职能专业化。第三篇论文使用基于主体的模型质疑了集聚经济是集群形成背后驱动力的普遍观点。第四篇论文应用现代工具变量技术来衡量从委内瑞拉到哥伦比亚的强迫移民潮对房价的影响。第五篇论文利用多元空间计量模型探讨了人口老龄化对区域一级人均劳动收入、消费和财富的影响。第六篇论文基于先进的空间计量经济来源地-目的地模型,研究了邻国对移民总体汇款决定的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Allies or rivals? Spatial price competition in the Chinese retail gasoline market of inner Mongolia 盟友还是对手?内蒙古汽油零售市场空间价格竞争研究
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-27 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2118361
Yihua Yu, Jian Cui, Chuwen Huang, Hanfang Yang
ABSTRACT This study examines the pricing behaviour in the gasoline market using station-level pricing data from Inner Mongolia, China. The spatial econometric findings confirm that: (1) there is a significant spatial dependence among gas stations; (2) the two state-owned oil giants, PetroChina and Sinopec, receive a positive pricing effect from their brands compared with other stations; (3) there is no significant evidence of price competition among PetroChina stations, and some evidence of competition among Sinopec stations, and more intense competition among other stations; and (4) ‘stand-alone’ (no stations nearby) stations have a price premium, but the premium is limited by the price regulation. Our results show the heterogeneity in pricing behaviour between stations, implying the need for differentiated policies to ensure orderly competition in the retail gasoline market.
摘要:本研究利用内蒙古加油站的价格数据,考察了汽油市场的定价行为。空间计量分析结果表明:(1)加油站间存在显著的空间依赖性;(2)与其他加油站相比,中石油和中石化这两家国有石油巨头的品牌具有正向的定价效应;(3)中石油加油站之间没有明显的价格竞争,中石化加油站之间存在一定的竞争,其他加油站之间的竞争更为激烈;(4)“独立”(附近没有加油站)加油站有价格溢价,但溢价受到价格监管的限制。我们的研究结果显示了加油站之间定价行为的异质性,这意味着需要采取差异化政策来确保零售汽油市场的有序竞争。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Spatial Economic Analysis
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