Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2053402
P. Elhorst, M. Abreu, P. Amaral, A. Bhattacharjee, Steven Bond‐Smith, C. Chasco, L. Corrado, J. Ditzen, D. Felsenstein, F. Fuerst, P. McCann, V. Monastiriotis, F. Quatraro, Umed Temursho, Jihai Yu
ABSTRACT This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 17(2) (2022). The first paper evaluates logistic regression and machine-learning methods for predicting firm bankruptcy. The second paper demonstrates that machine learning outperforms existing tools to improve the estimation of regional input–output tables. The third paper investigates whether network centrality depends on the probability that a tie between two nodes is formed, as well as its intensity. The fourth paper sets out a Bayesian estimation technique to estimate a spatial autoregressive multinomial logit model. The fifth paper develops a statistic to test for several misspecification problems in spatial econometric models. The sixth paper compares the prediction accuracy of spatial and non-spatial econometric models explaining the number of tourist arrivals across countries.
{"title":"Raising the bar (20)","authors":"P. Elhorst, M. Abreu, P. Amaral, A. Bhattacharjee, Steven Bond‐Smith, C. Chasco, L. Corrado, J. Ditzen, D. Felsenstein, F. Fuerst, P. McCann, V. Monastiriotis, F. Quatraro, Umed Temursho, Jihai Yu","doi":"10.1080/17421772.2022.2053402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2022.2053402","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 17(2) (2022). The first paper evaluates logistic regression and machine-learning methods for predicting firm bankruptcy. The second paper demonstrates that machine learning outperforms existing tools to improve the estimation of regional input–output tables. The third paper investigates whether network centrality depends on the probability that a tie between two nodes is formed, as well as its intensity. The fourth paper sets out a Bayesian estimation technique to estimate a spatial autoregressive multinomial logit model. The fifth paper develops a statistic to test for several misspecification problems in spatial econometric models. The sixth paper compares the prediction accuracy of spatial and non-spatial econometric models explaining the number of tourist arrivals across countries.","PeriodicalId":47008,"journal":{"name":"Spatial Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47515544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-18DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2045344
Orsa Kekezi, S. Dall’erba, Dongwoo Kang
ABSTRACT This paper relies on a regional knowledge production function to examine the heterogeneous determinants of knowledge creation across five US manufacturing sectors and 853 metropolitan counties over the period 2001–08. Using a Tobit model with state fixed effects, the results indicate that local intra- and inter-sectoral research and development (R&D) investments by the private sector as well as university R&D play a key role in knowledge creation across all sectors under study. We also find that the role of short- versus long-distance interregional spillovers on knowledge creation varies greatly across sectors. These key features improve the design of future local and national innovation policies.
{"title":"The role of interregional and inter-sectoral knowledge spillovers on regional knowledge creation across US metropolitan counties","authors":"Orsa Kekezi, S. Dall’erba, Dongwoo Kang","doi":"10.1080/17421772.2022.2045344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2022.2045344","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper relies on a regional knowledge production function to examine the heterogeneous determinants of knowledge creation across five US manufacturing sectors and 853 metropolitan counties over the period 2001–08. Using a Tobit model with state fixed effects, the results indicate that local intra- and inter-sectoral research and development (R&D) investments by the private sector as well as university R&D play a key role in knowledge creation across all sectors under study. We also find that the role of short- versus long-distance interregional spillovers on knowledge creation varies greatly across sectors. These key features improve the design of future local and national innovation policies.","PeriodicalId":47008,"journal":{"name":"Spatial Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46567986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-19DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2036361
Massimo Giannini, Cristiana Fiorelli, B. Martini
ABSTRACT This study examines the effects of ageing on per capita labour income, consumption and wealth of the working population in Italian provinces. Starting from the overlapping generations (OLG) model of perpetual youth, we estimate a spatial vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate how ageing affects the model’s dynamics. We find that ageing positively impacts per capita labour income and wealth, consequently having an adverse effect on consumption (over-accumulation). A simple exercise shows that over-accumulation is beneficial to the Italian social security system.
{"title":"Ageing in the labour market: a spatial VAR approach","authors":"Massimo Giannini, Cristiana Fiorelli, B. Martini","doi":"10.1080/17421772.2022.2036361","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2022.2036361","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study examines the effects of ageing on per capita labour income, consumption and wealth of the working population in Italian provinces. Starting from the overlapping generations (OLG) model of perpetual youth, we estimate a spatial vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate how ageing affects the model’s dynamics. We find that ageing positively impacts per capita labour income and wealth, consequently having an adverse effect on consumption (over-accumulation). A simple exercise shows that over-accumulation is beneficial to the Italian social security system.","PeriodicalId":47008,"journal":{"name":"Spatial Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45373813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-17DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2036362
Daniel Forero-Vargas, Victor Iturra
ABSTRACT The economic and social crisis faced by Venezuela since 2013 has led to a massive migration of its population to neighbouring countries, with Colombia being the nation that has been the most impacted. This paper estimates the impact of Venezuelan immigration on housing rents in Colombia’s main cities. Using a repeated cross-section data of Colombian households between 2013 and 2019, along with an instrumental variables approach, this study finds that a 1% increase in the proportion of Venezuelan immigrants to residents in the main cities in Colombia raises housing rents, on average, by about 1.25%.
{"title":"Assessing the impact of recent Venezuelan immigration on housing rents in Colombia","authors":"Daniel Forero-Vargas, Victor Iturra","doi":"10.1080/17421772.2022.2036362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2022.2036362","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The economic and social crisis faced by Venezuela since 2013 has led to a massive migration of its population to neighbouring countries, with Colombia being the nation that has been the most impacted. This paper estimates the impact of Venezuelan immigration on housing rents in Colombia’s main cities. Using a repeated cross-section data of Colombian households between 2013 and 2019, along with an instrumental variables approach, this study finds that a 1% increase in the proportion of Venezuelan immigrants to residents in the main cities in Colombia raises housing rents, on average, by about 1.25%.","PeriodicalId":47008,"journal":{"name":"Spatial Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42415579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.2020889
Shishir Shakya, Alicia Plemmons
ABSTRACT Historically, compensation and productivity steadily trended synchronously with one another. However, since the mid-1970s, these two measures have diverged as productivity increases have outpaced compensation. This divergence is indicative of evidence of wage stagnation and rising income inequality. We provide arguments on the productivity–compensation gap and illuminate possible explanations about whether and why the gap exists in different industries incorporating spatial and trade networks. We confirm that the gap narrows once we account for productivity spillovers between bordering and trading states using spatially lagged X (SLX) models. The results vary across industries and provide insights for policymakers and firms about productivity and compensation patterns.
{"title":"Productivity spillovers and the productivity–compensation gap","authors":"Shishir Shakya, Alicia Plemmons","doi":"10.1080/17421772.2021.2020889","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2021.2020889","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Historically, compensation and productivity steadily trended synchronously with one another. However, since the mid-1970s, these two measures have diverged as productivity increases have outpaced compensation. This divergence is indicative of evidence of wage stagnation and rising income inequality. We provide arguments on the productivity–compensation gap and illuminate possible explanations about whether and why the gap exists in different industries incorporating spatial and trade networks. We confirm that the gap narrows once we account for productivity spillovers between bordering and trading states using spatially lagged X (SLX) models. The results vary across industries and provide insights for policymakers and firms about productivity and compensation patterns.","PeriodicalId":47008,"journal":{"name":"Spatial Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44029792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-18DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.2014944
Hiroshi Ikari, Tatsuhito Kono, Yiming Zhou
ABSTRACT We investigate the cumulative causation between agglomeration of skilled workers and technological growth across cities with human capital externalities and agglomeration economies. We classify industry sectors in terms of technological growth: a modern sector with improving technology and a traditional sector with mature technology. Our model includes multiple specialization patterns of modern and traditional sectors across cities. We show that both ‘the cumulative causation between the agglomeration of skilled workers and technological growth’ and ‘the impacts of transport costs on that causation’ differ across industrial specialization patterns, implying that industrial specialization patterns matter for technological growth.
{"title":"Industrial specialization patterns across cities, agglomeration of skilled labour and technological growth","authors":"Hiroshi Ikari, Tatsuhito Kono, Yiming Zhou","doi":"10.1080/17421772.2021.2014944","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2021.2014944","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We investigate the cumulative causation between agglomeration of skilled workers and technological growth across cities with human capital externalities and agglomeration economies. We classify industry sectors in terms of technological growth: a modern sector with improving technology and a traditional sector with mature technology. Our model includes multiple specialization patterns of modern and traditional sectors across cities. We show that both ‘the cumulative causation between the agglomeration of skilled workers and technological growth’ and ‘the impacts of transport costs on that causation’ differ across industrial specialization patterns, implying that industrial specialization patterns matter for technological growth.","PeriodicalId":47008,"journal":{"name":"Spatial Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48383078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-12DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.2012584
Sofía Jiménez, E. Dietzenbacher, R. Duarte, Julio Sánchez‐Chóliz
ABSTRACT Due to international fragmentation, production increasingly occurs in global supply chains (GSC). The common belief is that this leads to more specialization, which implies more concentration of imports and exports over time. In this paper, we empirically test this hypothesis by analysing the geographical and sectoral concentration of GSC over the period 1995–2011. We adapt the traditional Herfindahl’s concentration indexes to a multi-regional input–output framework. Taking the information on intersectoral and interregional linkages into full account gives the concentration indexes of GSC. The indexes are at different aggregation levels, which enables us to examine both geographical and sectoral concentration patterns. After that, we analyse the effect a country’s geographical and sectoral concentration on its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Our findings are: an increase of geographical and sectoral concentration of GSC from 1995 to 2011; a growing role in global production chains played by China and other Asian countries; less concentration for European Union countries; a significant positive effect of geographical concentration on GDP per capita; and a significant negative effect of sectoral concentration.
{"title":"The geographical and sectoral concentration of global supply chains","authors":"Sofía Jiménez, E. Dietzenbacher, R. Duarte, Julio Sánchez‐Chóliz","doi":"10.1080/17421772.2021.2012584","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2021.2012584","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Due to international fragmentation, production increasingly occurs in global supply chains (GSC). The common belief is that this leads to more specialization, which implies more concentration of imports and exports over time. In this paper, we empirically test this hypothesis by analysing the geographical and sectoral concentration of GSC over the period 1995–2011. We adapt the traditional Herfindahl’s concentration indexes to a multi-regional input–output framework. Taking the information on intersectoral and interregional linkages into full account gives the concentration indexes of GSC. The indexes are at different aggregation levels, which enables us to examine both geographical and sectoral concentration patterns. After that, we analyse the effect a country’s geographical and sectoral concentration on its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Our findings are: an increase of geographical and sectoral concentration of GSC from 1995 to 2011; a growing role in global production chains played by China and other Asian countries; less concentration for European Union countries; a significant positive effect of geographical concentration on GDP per capita; and a significant negative effect of sectoral concentration.","PeriodicalId":47008,"journal":{"name":"Spatial Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44626368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-10DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.2018028
Jim Lee, Yuxia Huang
ABSTRACT This paper empirically investigates the conventional wisdom that urban residents have reacted to the Covid-19 pandemic by fleeing city centres for the suburbs. A conventional panel model of US ZIP code-level data provides mixed evidence in support of a shifting housing preference for more space or neighbourhoods farther from the urban core. Regressions accounting for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity show strong support of an urban flight within metro areas, but this local phenomenon is uneven across broad regions of the United States. The finding of geographical disparity underscores both the local as well as the regional nature of housing market conditions.
{"title":"Covid-19 impact on US housing markets: evidence from spatial regression models","authors":"Jim Lee, Yuxia Huang","doi":"10.1080/17421772.2021.2018028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2021.2018028","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper empirically investigates the conventional wisdom that urban residents have reacted to the Covid-19 pandemic by fleeing city centres for the suburbs. A conventional panel model of US ZIP code-level data provides mixed evidence in support of a shifting housing preference for more space or neighbourhoods farther from the urban core. Regressions accounting for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity show strong support of an urban flight within metro areas, but this local phenomenon is uneven across broad regions of the United States. The finding of geographical disparity underscores both the local as well as the regional nature of housing market conditions.","PeriodicalId":47008,"journal":{"name":"Spatial Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44593055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2018168
P. Elhorst, M. Abreu, P. Amaral, A. Bhattacharjee, Steven Bond‐Smith, C. Chasco, L. Corrado, J. Ditzen, D. Felsenstein, F. Fuerst, P. McCann, V. Monastiriotis, F. Quatraro, Umed Temursho, Jihai Yu
ABSTRACT This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 17(1) (2022). This issue begins with a second editorial calling on researchers to publish replication results from previous studies. The first paper applies a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model for understanding the dynamics of second home ownership in Corsica. The second paper determines the optimal time to invest in a new airport using real options analysis. The third paper employs unit root tests to provide empirical evidence that environmental policy changes have not been effective up to now. The fourth paper provides empirical evidence that regional spillover effects should play a crucial role in the policy discussion about climate change. The fifth paper forecasts the direct impact of climate change on crop yields in the agricultural sector and the indirect impacts on other sectors of the Brazilian economy up to 2100. The sixth paper investigates whether the percentage of women in national parliaments positively affects public expenditures on social needs both internally and in neighbouring countries. The seventh paper sets out a general framework for store sales evaluation and prediction.
{"title":"Raising the bar (19)","authors":"P. Elhorst, M. Abreu, P. Amaral, A. Bhattacharjee, Steven Bond‐Smith, C. Chasco, L. Corrado, J. Ditzen, D. Felsenstein, F. Fuerst, P. McCann, V. Monastiriotis, F. Quatraro, Umed Temursho, Jihai Yu","doi":"10.1080/17421772.2022.2018168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17421772.2022.2018168","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 17(1) (2022). This issue begins with a second editorial calling on researchers to publish replication results from previous studies. The first paper applies a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model for understanding the dynamics of second home ownership in Corsica. The second paper determines the optimal time to invest in a new airport using real options analysis. The third paper employs unit root tests to provide empirical evidence that environmental policy changes have not been effective up to now. The fourth paper provides empirical evidence that regional spillover effects should play a crucial role in the policy discussion about climate change. The fifth paper forecasts the direct impact of climate change on crop yields in the agricultural sector and the indirect impacts on other sectors of the Brazilian economy up to 2100. The sixth paper investigates whether the percentage of women in national parliaments positively affects public expenditures on social needs both internally and in neighbouring countries. The seventh paper sets out a general framework for store sales evaluation and prediction.","PeriodicalId":47008,"journal":{"name":"Spatial Economic Analysis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47514694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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