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The geographical and sectoral concentration of global supply chains 全球供应链的地域和部门集中
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-12 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.2012584
Sofía Jiménez, E. Dietzenbacher, R. Duarte, Julio Sánchez‐Chóliz
ABSTRACT Due to international fragmentation, production increasingly occurs in global supply chains (GSC). The common belief is that this leads to more specialization, which implies more concentration of imports and exports over time. In this paper, we empirically test this hypothesis by analysing the geographical and sectoral concentration of GSC over the period 1995–2011. We adapt the traditional Herfindahl’s concentration indexes to a multi-regional input–output framework. Taking the information on intersectoral and interregional linkages into full account gives the concentration indexes of GSC. The indexes are at different aggregation levels, which enables us to examine both geographical and sectoral concentration patterns. After that, we analyse the effect a country’s geographical and sectoral concentration on its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Our findings are: an increase of geographical and sectoral concentration of GSC from 1995 to 2011; a growing role in global production chains played by China and other Asian countries; less concentration for European Union countries; a significant positive effect of geographical concentration on GDP per capita; and a significant negative effect of sectoral concentration.
摘要由于国际分工,全球供应链中的生产越来越多。人们普遍认为,这会导致更多的专业化,这意味着随着时间的推移,进出口更加集中。在本文中,我们通过分析1995-2011年期间GSC的地理和部门集中度来实证检验这一假设。我们将传统的赫芬达尔集中度指数调整为多区域投入产出框架。充分考虑跨部门和区域间联系的信息,可以得出GSC的集中度指数。这些指数处于不同的聚合水平,这使我们能够研究地理和部门集中模式。然后,我们分析了一个国家的地理和部门集中度对其人均国内生产总值的影响。我们的研究结果是:从1995年到2011年,GSC的地理和部门集中度增加;中国和其他亚洲国家在全球生产链中发挥的作用越来越大;欧洲联盟国家的集中度较低;地域集中对人均国内生产总值的显著积极影响;以及部门集中的显著负面影响。
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引用次数: 3
Covid-19 impact on US housing markets: evidence from spatial regression models 新冠肺炎对美国房地产市场的影响:来自空间回归模型的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.2018028
Jim Lee, Yuxia Huang
ABSTRACT This paper empirically investigates the conventional wisdom that urban residents have reacted to the Covid-19 pandemic by fleeing city centres for the suburbs. A conventional panel model of US ZIP code-level data provides mixed evidence in support of a shifting housing preference for more space or neighbourhoods farther from the urban core. Regressions accounting for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity show strong support of an urban flight within metro areas, but this local phenomenon is uneven across broad regions of the United States. The finding of geographical disparity underscores both the local as well as the regional nature of housing market conditions.
摘要本文实证研究了传统观点,即城市居民对新冠肺炎疫情的反应是逃离市中心前往郊区。美国邮政编码级别数据的传统面板模型提供了混合证据,支持人们对远离城市核心的更多空间或街区的住房偏好发生变化。考虑到空间依赖性和空间异质性的回归显示,大都市地区的城市飞行得到了强有力的支持,但这种局部现象在美国广大地区是不均衡的。地理差异的发现突出了住房市场条件的地方性和区域性。
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引用次数: 10
Raising the bar (19) 提高标准(19)
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2018168
P. Elhorst, M. Abreu, P. Amaral, A. Bhattacharjee, Steven Bond‐Smith, C. Chasco, L. Corrado, J. Ditzen, D. Felsenstein, F. Fuerst, P. McCann, V. Monastiriotis, F. Quatraro, Umed Temursho, Jihai Yu
ABSTRACT This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 17(1) (2022). This issue begins with a second editorial calling on researchers to publish replication results from previous studies. The first paper applies a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model for understanding the dynamics of second home ownership in Corsica. The second paper determines the optimal time to invest in a new airport using real options analysis. The third paper employs unit root tests to provide empirical evidence that environmental policy changes have not been effective up to now. The fourth paper provides empirical evidence that regional spillover effects should play a crucial role in the policy discussion about climate change. The fifth paper forecasts the direct impact of climate change on crop yields in the agricultural sector and the indirect impacts on other sectors of the Brazilian economy up to 2100. The sixth paper investigates whether the percentage of women in national parliaments positively affects public expenditures on social needs both internally and in neighbouring countries. The seventh paper sets out a general framework for store sales evaluation and prediction.
这篇社论总结了发表在第17期(1)(2022)上的论文。这期杂志从第二篇社论开始,呼吁研究人员发表以前研究的复制结果。第一篇论文应用时空贝叶斯层次模型来理解科西嘉岛第二套住房所有权的动态。第二篇论文利用实物期权分析确定了投资新机场的最佳时间。第三篇论文采用单位根检验的方法提供了环境政策变化到目前为止还没有产生效果的实证证据。第四章提供了区域溢出效应在气候变化政策讨论中发挥关键作用的实证证据。第五篇论文预测了到2100年气候变化对农业部门作物产量的直接影响以及对巴西经济其他部门的间接影响。第六篇论文调查了妇女在国家议会中的比例是否对国内和邻国的社会需求公共支出产生积极影响。第七篇论文提出了商店销售评估和预测的总体框架。
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引用次数: 0
Introducing the Replication Studies section 介绍复制研究部分
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2018169
J. Ditzen, J. Elhorst
Spatial Economic Analysis is pleased to announce a new section, Replication Studies, devoted to short papers that replicate or extend published empirical results and discuss their sensitivity to relevant changes in the model, estimation method and/or interpretation. Empirical studies are part of the backbone of the social sciences because they help to support theories and form policy recommendations. In recent decades there has been a 50% increase in the share of published empirical studies in comparison with articles focused on economic theory and econometric theory. In addition, empirical papers receive more citations than theoretical papers (Angrist et al., 2017). It is 35 years since Dewald et al. (1986) emphasized the importance of replications in empirical research. Out of a sample of 54 published papers in the Journal ofMoney, Credit and Banking in 1980, they found only eight (15%) were replicable without problems and 14 (26%) were incomplete. More recently, Vilhuber (2020) found that about 30% of replication attempts fail. Still, replication studies are not common. Empirical work from well-published and highly cited articles or top five journals is more likely to be reproduced (Berry et al., 2017; Hamermesh, 2007), but the number of replication studies for even well-published works is small. Berry et al. (2017) find that only 3.5% of the papers that cited empirical works published in the American Economic Review in 2010 are replications. Replications in regional science, spatial economics and economic geography are also scarce and unsatisfactory to our knowledge. By contrast, in experimental economics and financial economics, two subfields within the economics literature, replications are more common (Ingerslev et al., 2021 Maniadis et al., 2017). The literature suggests two reasons for the lack of replication studies (Dewald et al., 1986; Galiani et al., 2017; Vilhuber, 2020):
空间经济分析很高兴宣布开设一个新的部分,即复制研究,专门介绍复制或扩展已发表的实证结果的简短论文,并讨论它们对模型、估计方法和/或解释的相关变化的敏感性。实证研究是社会科学支柱的一部分,因为它们有助于支持理论和形成政策建议。近几十年来,与专注于经济理论和计量经济学理论的文章相比,已发表的实证研究的份额增加了50%。此外,实证论文比理论论文被引用更多(Angrist et al.,2017)。Dewald等人(1986)在实证研究中强调复制的重要性已经35年了。在1980年发表在《货币、信贷和银行学杂志》上的54篇论文样本中,他们发现只有8篇(15%)是可以复制的,没有问题,14篇(26%)是不完整的。最近,Vilhuber(2020)发现,大约30%的复制尝试失败。不过,复制研究并不常见。来自发表良好、引用率高的文章或排名前五的期刊的实证研究更有可能被复制(Berry et al.,2017;Hamermesh,2007),但即使是发表良好的作品,复制研究的数量也很少。Berry等人(2017)发现,在2010年发表在《美国经济评论》上的引用实证著作的论文中,只有3.5%是复制品。区域科学、空间经济学和经济地理学的复制品也很少,而且据我们所知并不令人满意。相比之下,在实验经济学和金融经济学这两个经济学文献中的子领域中,复制更为常见(Ingerslev et al.,2021 Maniadis et al.,2017)。文献提出了缺乏复制研究的两个原因(Dewald等人,1986;Galiani等人,2017;Vilhuber,2020):
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引用次数: 3
Intra-industry agglomeration and the external economies of scale model: empirical evidence from Colombia 产业内集聚与外部规模经济模型:来自哥伦比亚的经验证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-12-14 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.2009905
Humberto Bernal
ABSTRACT This paper provides an economic model of localization economies under intra-industry agglomeration. When firms in an industry experience diseconomies of scale and homogeneous goods agglomerate, external economies of scale emerge, creating incentives for competitive firms to agglomerate. This study tests this model on the Colombian basic-plastics industry, using a dynamic panel regression for the period 1995–2015. Data analyses of 195 firms using an agglomerate index revealed the total cost declines by 0.031% as the agglomeration index increases marginally by 1.0%. These findings are beneficial to economic policymakers working to achieve agglomerations in other economic sectors through, for example, free-trade zones.
本文提出了一个产业内集聚条件下本地化经济的经济模型。当一个行业中的企业经历规模不经济和同质商品聚集时,外部规模经济就会出现,从而激励有竞争力的企业聚集。本研究使用1995-2015年期间的动态面板回归,在哥伦比亚基础塑料行业中测试了该模型。使用聚集指数对195家企业进行的数据分析显示,随着聚集指数小幅上升1.0%,总成本下降了0.031%。这些发现有利于经济决策者通过自由贸易区等途径实现其他经济部门的聚集。
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引用次数: 4
Climate-related natural disasters and forced migration: a spatial regression analysis 与气候有关的自然灾害和强迫移民:空间回归分析
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-18 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.1995620
Caterina Conigliani, V. Costantini, G. Finardi
ABSTRACT We investigate the role of spatial effects in the analysis of the relationship between climate-related disasters and forced migration. As a case study we select South and Southeast Asia due to the area’s large exposure to these hazards. The spatial regressions show that short- to medium-distance forced migrations are considerably affected by climate-related disasters, independently of the economic expectation associated with the destination. Moreover, we find that this relationship is disaster-type specific. Finally, we detect a competition among migrants, as the decision to move as an adaptation strategy is found to be dependent on the migratory behaviour of neighbouring countries.
摘要:我们研究了空间效应在分析气候相关灾害与强迫移民之间关系中的作用。作为案例研究,我们选择了南亚和东南亚,因为该地区大量暴露在这些危险中。空间回归表明,中短途强迫移民在很大程度上受到气候相关灾害的影响,与目的地的经济预期无关。此外,我们发现这种关系是特定于灾难类型的。最后,我们发现移民之间存在竞争,因为作为适应战略的迁移决定取决于邻国的移民行为。
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引用次数: 4
A simple test for stability of a spatial model 空间模型稳定性的简单测试
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-27 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.1949483
H. Kelejian, G. Piras
ABSTRACT This paper suggests a simple test to check if a spatial model’s specifications hold for the entire sample period, that is, to see if the model is stable. Our test is general in that it allows for possible unknown changes, one or more times, in the weighting matrix, in the exogenous variables and/or in the parameters. These changes may occur cross-sectionally or at unknown points in time. The test also allows for additional endogenous regressors, and the error terms are non-parametrically specified. However, if instabilities are detected, our test does not indicate which set of model components is responsible for it. Our Monte Carlo results suggest that the test has extremely high power for almost all the experiments considered. However, the size of the test is low for small sample sizes when additional endogenous regressors are part of the model.
摘要本文提出了一个简单的测试来检查空间模型的规范是否在整个样本期内有效,即查看模型是否稳定。我们的测试是通用的,因为它允许加权矩阵、外生变量和/或参数中可能的未知变化一次或多次。这些变化可能发生在横断面上,也可能发生在未知的时间点上。该测试还允许额外的内生回归,并且误差项是非参数指定的。然而,如果检测到不稳定性,我们的测试并不能表明是哪组模型组件造成的。我们的蒙特卡罗结果表明,该测试对几乎所有考虑的实验都具有极高的功率。然而,当额外的内生回归因子是模型的一部分时,小样本量的测试规模较小。
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引用次数: 2
Machine-learning models for bankruptcy prediction: do industrial variables matter? 破产预测的机器学习模型:工业变量重要吗?
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-07 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.1977377
D. Bragoli, C. Ferretti, P. Ganugi, G. Marseguerra, Davide Mezzogori, F. Zammori
ABSTRACT We provide a predictive model specifically designed for the Italian economy that classifies solvent and insolvent firms one year in advance using the AIDA Bureau van Dijk data set for the period 2007–15. We apply a full battery of bankruptcy forecasting models, including both traditional and more sophisticated machine-learning techniques, and add to the financial ratios used in the literature a set of industrial/regional variables. We find that XGBoost is the best performer, and that industrial/regional variables are important. Moreover, belonging to a district, having a high mark-up and a greater market share diminish bankruptcy probability.
我们提供了一个专门为意大利经济设计的预测模型,该模型使用2007 - 2015年期间的AIDA局van Dijk数据集提前一年对有偿债能力和资不抵债的公司进行分类。我们应用了一整套破产预测模型,包括传统的和更复杂的机器学习技术,并在文献中使用的财务比率中添加了一组工业/地区变量。我们发现XGBoost是表现最好的,并且行业/区域变量很重要。而且,同属一个地区,利润率高,市场占有率大,降低了企业破产的可能性。
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引用次数: 10
Spatial Economic Analysis 2021 Awards 2021年空间经济分析奖
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.1980994
Xun Zhang, Guanghua Wan, Jing Li
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引用次数: 0
Raising the bar (18) 提高标准(18)
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-10-02 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2021.1980993
P. Elhorst, M. Abreu, P. Amaral, A. Bhattacharjee, C. Chasco, L. Corrado, J. Ditzen, J. Doran, D. Felsenstein, F. Fuerst, J. Le Gallo, P. McCann, V. Monastiriotis, F. Quatraro, Umed Temursho, Jihai Yu
ABSTRACT This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 16(4) (2021). The first paper adopts a higher order spatial autoregressive model with endogenous spatial weight matrices. The second paper investigates the existence of the law of one price using regional observations over time. The third paper develops an economic-theoretical model that goes against the common belief that the most productive individuals and firms agglomerate at the core. The fourth paper provides empirical evidence that merger and acquisition deals are more likely to occur between firms in culturally than in geographically contiguous countries. The fifth paper develops a spatial econometric estimator based on the indirect inference principle. The sixth paper examines the investment behaviour of First Nation governments through joint ventures. The seventh paper employs a spatial econometric model with an endogenous spatial weight matrix to construct intraregional input-output models.
摘要:这篇社论总结了发表在2021年第16(4)期的论文。第一篇论文采用了具有内生空间权重矩阵的高阶空间自回归模型。第二篇论文利用一段时间的区域观测研究了一个价格定律的存在性。第三篇论文提出了一个经济理论模型,该模型违背了人们普遍认为的最具生产力的个人和企业聚集在核心的观点。第四篇论文提供了经验证据,表明文化上相邻的国家的企业之间更有可能发生并购交易。第五章基于间接推理原理,提出了一种空间计量经济估计器。第六篇论文考察了第一民族政府通过合资企业的投资行为。第七章采用具有内生空间权重矩阵的空间计量经济模型构建区域内投入产出模型。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Spatial Economic Analysis
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