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The local costs of global climate change: spatial GDP downscaling under different climate scenarios 全球气候变化的地方成本:不同气候情景下的空间GDP缩减
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-26 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2096917
M. Rizzati, G. Standardi, G. Guastella, R. Parrado, F. Bosello, S. Pareglio
ABSTRACT We present a tractable methodology to estimate climate change costs at a 1 × 1 km grid resolution. Climate change costs are obtained as projected gross domestic product (GDP) changes, under different global shared socio-economic pathway–representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios, from a regional (multiple European NUTS levels) version of the Intertemporal Computable Equilibrium System (ICES) model. Local costs are obtained by downscaling projected GDP according to urbanized area estimated by a grid-level model that accounts for fixed effects, such as population and location, and spatially clustered random effects at multiple hierarchical administrative levels. We produce a grid-level dataset of climate change economic impacts under different scenarios that can be used to compare the cost – in terms of GDP loss – of no adaptation and the benefits of investing in local adaptation.
摘要:我们提出了一种简单易行的方法,以1 × 1. km网格分辨率。气候变化成本是在不同的全球共享社会经济路径-代表性集中路径(SSP-RCP)情景下,从区域(多个欧洲NUTS水平)版本的跨时间可计算平衡系统(ICES)模型中获得的预测国内生产总值(GDP)变化。地方成本是通过根据网格级模型估计的城市化面积缩小预测GDP来获得的,该模型考虑了固定效应,如人口和位置,以及多个层级行政级别的空间聚集随机效应。我们制作了一个不同情景下气候变化经济影响的网格级数据集,可用于比较不适应的成本(以GDP损失为单位)和投资于当地适应的收益。
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引用次数: 1
A spatial stochastic frontier model including both frontier and error-based spatial cross-sectional dependence 一个空间随机边界模型,包括边界和基于误差的空间截面依赖
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-26 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2097729
Federica Galli
ABSTRACT Spatial dependence in stochastic frontier models is usually handled by modelling the frontier function or the inefficiency error term through the introduction of some spatial components. The model proposed in this paper (SDF-CSD) combines the two different modelling approaches, obtaining a full comprehensive specification that introduces four different sources of spatial cross-sectional dependence. The most appealing feature of the model is that it allows capturing global and local spatial spillover effects while controlling for spatial correlation related to firms’ efficiency and to unobserved but spatially correlated variables. Moreover, it can be estimated using maximum likelihood techniques. Finally, some Monte Carlo simulations were run to test the final sample properties of the new spatial estimator and an application to the Italian agricultural sector is provided.
随机前沿模型的空间依赖性通常是通过引入一些空间分量对前沿函数或无效误差项进行建模来处理的。本文提出的模型(SDF-CSD)结合了两种不同的建模方法,获得了一个完整的综合规范,该规范引入了四种不同的空间横截面依赖性来源。该模型最吸引人的特点是,它允许捕捉全球和局部空间溢出效应,同时控制与企业效率相关的空间相关性和未观察到的但空间相关的变量。此外,它可以使用最大似然技术进行估计。最后,进行了蒙特卡罗模拟,以测试新空间估计器的最终样本特性,并提供了在意大利农业部门的应用。
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引用次数: 2
Distribution dynamics: a spatial perspective 分布动态:空间视角
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-21 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2095005
Margherita Gerolimetto, S. Magrini
ABSTRACT It is quite common in cross-sectional convergence analyses that data exhibit spatial dependence. Within the literature adopting the distribution dynamics approach, authors typically opt for spatial prefiltering. We follow an alternative route and propose a procedure based on an estimate of the mean function of a conditional density for which we develop a two-stage non-parametric estimator that allows for spatial dependence estimated via a spline estimator of the spatial correlation function. The finite sample performance of this estimator is assessed via Monte Carlo simulations. We apply the procedure that incorporates the proposed spatial non-parametric estimator to data on per capita personal income in US states and metropolitan statistical areas.
摘要在横断面收敛分析中,数据表现出空间相关性是很常见的。在采用分布动力学方法的文献中,作者通常选择空间预过滤。我们遵循另一条路线,并提出了一种基于条件密度均值函数估计的程序,为此我们开发了一个两阶段非参数估计器,该估计器允许通过空间相关函数的样条估计器估计空间相关性。该估计器的有限样本性能通过蒙特卡罗模拟进行评估。我们将所提出的空间非参数估计方法应用于美国各州和大都市统计区的人均个人收入数据。
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引用次数: 1
Raising the bar (21) 提高标准(21)
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2088660
P. Elhorst, M. Abreu, P. Amaral, A. Bhattacharjee, Steven Bond‐Smith, C. Chasco, L. Corrado, J. Ditzen, D. Felsenstein, F. Fuerst, P. McCann, V. Monastiriotis, F. Quatraro, Umed Temursho, D. Tsiotas, Jihai Yu
ABSTRACT This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 17(3) (2022). The first paper analyses the impact of knowledge spillovers on patent applications using a Tobit model. The second paper sets out an economic-theoretical model of industrial specialization patterns across cities and their impact on the spatial agglomeration of skilled workers and long-term productivity growth. The third paper analyses the price and average cost functions of a competitive industry in which firms face diseconomies of scale but enjoy economies of scale when they agglomerate. The fourth paper shows that productivity spillover effects and their endogeneity are key to understanding the productivity-compensation gap. The fifth paper studies geographical and sectoral specialization versus concentration of global supply chains. The sixth paper combines spatial autoregressive (SAR) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models to test whether urban residents have reacted to the Covid-19 pandemic by moving out of US metropolitan centres into the suburbs. The seventh paper investigates the impact of natural disasters caused by climate change on forced outmigration flows in South and South-East Asian countries.
这篇社论总结了发表在第17期(3)(2022)上的论文。第一篇论文采用Tobit模型分析了知识溢出对专利申请的影响。第二章建立了城市产业专业化格局及其对技术工人空间集聚和长期生产率增长影响的经济理论模型。第三篇论文分析了竞争产业中企业面临规模不经济而聚集后又享受规模经济的价格和平均成本函数。第四篇论文指出,生产率溢出效应及其内生性是理解生产率补偿差距的关键。第五篇论文研究了全球供应链的地理和部门专业化与集中化。第六篇论文结合了空间自回归(SAR)和地理加权回归(GWR)模型,以测试城市居民是否通过从美国大都市中心搬到郊区来应对Covid-19大流行。第七篇论文调查了气候变化引起的自然灾害对南亚和东南亚国家被迫外流的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Skill-based functional specialization in trade: an input–output analysis of multiscalar value chains in Brazil 基于技能的贸易职能专业化:巴西多等级价值链的投入产出分析
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-20 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2081714
E. Sanguinet, C. Azzoni, Miguel Atienza Ubeda, A. Alvim
ABSTRACT Sophisticated spatial labour markets can promote better opportunities for functional upgrading in value-added trade. This paper estimates the skill-based functional specialization in Brazilian labour factor content in trade in value-added (LTiVA), considering different geographical scales. We combined an interregional input–output model for Brazilian states with occupational data to identify the skill intensity embedded in LTiVA based on the hypothetical extraction method (HEM) technique. Our findings show that the largest Southeastern economic area specializes in highly sophisticated functions, while the rest of the country embodies low skills in value-added trade for domestic and global trade levels. Furthermore, the results reveal a central role for the São Paulo state governing the subnational value chains and reinforcing the international uneven spatial functional division pattern at the subnational level.
复杂的空间劳动力市场可以促进增值贸易功能升级的更好机会。考虑到不同的地理尺度,本文估计了巴西增值贸易中劳动力要素含量的基于技能的功能专业化。我们将巴西各州的区域间投入产出模型与职业数据相结合,基于假设提取法(HEM)技术来识别LTiVA中的技能强度。我们的研究结果表明,东南部最大的经济区专门从事高度复杂的功能,而该国其他地区在国内和全球贸易水平的增值贸易方面技能较低。此外,研究结果揭示了圣保罗州在管理国家以下各级价值链和加强国家以下各级国际不均衡的空间功能划分模式方面的核心作用。
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引用次数: 1
Transportation gas emissions with online retailing: a spatial model 交通气体排放与在线零售:一个空间模型
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-06 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2078872
Zemin Hou, S. Colombo
ABSTRACT We analyse the impact of online retailing on transportation gas emissions in a spatial duopoly with upstream suppliers. We consider: (1) pure offline competition with two physical retailers; and (2) online/offline competition, where an online retailer competes against an offline retailer. When the upstream suppliers are located in the city centre, transportation gas emissions are lower under online/offline competition. However, when the upstream suppliers are at the endpoints, online retailing might increase transportation gas emissions. This happens when: (1) in the online/offline competition case, the physical retailer does not locate at the endpoint; (2) the transportation costs of the suppliers’ commercial trucks are sufficiently larger than those of the consumers’ private cars; and (3) the competitiveness of the offline retailer is high enough.
本文分析了网络零售对具有上游供应商的空间双寡头垄断的运输气体排放的影响。我们考虑:(1)与两家实体零售商的纯线下竞争;(2)线上/线下竞争,即线上零售商与线下零售商的竞争。当上游供应商位于城市中心时,线上/线下竞争下的交通气体排放更低。然而,当上游供应商处于终端时,在线零售可能会增加运输气体排放。这种情况发生在:(1)在线上/线下竞争情况下,实体零售商不位于端点;(2)供应商的商用车运输成本明显大于消费者的私家车运输成本;(3)线下零售商的竞争力足够高。
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引用次数: 2
Neighbouring countries and bilateral remittances: a global study 邻国与双边汇款:一项全球研究
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2070656
Thibault Laurent, Paula Margaretic, C. Thomas-Agnan
ABSTRACT We measure to what extent neighbouring countries affect the amount of remittances between a source and a recipient country, controlling for the commonly used macro determinants of remittances. We provide novel evidence on the importance of neighbouring countries, with the parameter estimates capturing origin and destination spatial dependence being positive and significant. Disregarding the role of neighbouring countries leads to biased estimates and misprediction. Indeed, when we correctly account for the role of neighbouring countries, prediction errors decrease by 44% when we express bilateral remittances in nominal terms and by 31% when remittances are in logarithm. Next, we present evidence supporting the altruism, the investment and the financial friction motives to remit, with the altruism motive being the one that contributes the most to explain expected remittances. As an application of our model, we show that, following the Covid-19 shock, remittances are expected to decrease less in countries with smaller income per capita. This is good news for low- to middle-income countries.
我们在控制常用的汇款宏观决定因素的情况下,衡量邻国对来源国和接受国之间汇款数额的影响程度。我们提供了关于邻国重要性的新证据,参数估计捕获了原产地和目的地的空间依赖性是积极和显著的。忽视邻国的作用会导致有偏见的估计和错误的预测。事实上,当我们正确地考虑到邻国的作用时,以名义形式表示双边汇款的预测误差减少了44%,以对数形式表示汇款的预测误差减少了31%。接下来,我们提出了支持利他主义、投资和金融摩擦动机的证据,其中利他主义动机对解释预期汇款贡献最大。作为我们模型的应用,我们表明,在2019冠状病毒病冲击之后,预计人均收入较低的国家的汇款减少幅度较小。这对中低收入国家来说是个好消息。
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引用次数: 2
Distance from diasporas and immigrants’ location choice: evidence from Italy 与侨民的距离和移民的地点选择:来自意大利的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-05-25 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2077417
Roberto Basile, N. Coniglio, Francesca Licar
ABSTRACT Diasporas play a fundamental role in explaining the location choice of new immigrants. We investigate the spatial dimension of diaspora externalities focusing on immigrants in Italian local labour market areas (LLMAs). We show that the net pull effect of diasporas spills over an estimated average distance of 82 km. We find evidence of negative spatial spillovers at greater geographical distances, suggesting a competition effect from neighbouring diasporas. Ethnic-specific labour markets and ethnic consumption externalities are important channels through which the distance–decay effects of diasporas take place. We also find that the spatial effects of diasporas are highly heterogeneous across gender and origin countries.
散居者在解释新移民的区位选择中起着至关重要的作用。我们调查了散居国外的外部性的空间维度,重点关注意大利当地劳动力市场地区(LLMA)的移民。我们表明,散居者的净拉动效应在估计的平均距离82 km。我们发现在更大的地理距离上存在负空间溢出的证据,表明来自邻近散居地的竞争效应。特定种族的劳动力市场和种族消费外部性是散居者产生距离衰减效应的重要渠道。我们还发现,散居者的空间效应在性别和原籍国之间具有高度异质性。
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引用次数: 1
Rethinking regional wage determinants: regional market potential versus trade partners’ potential 重新思考区域工资决定因素:区域市场潜力与贸易伙伴潜力
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-05-19 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2070657
Bartlomiej Rokicki, A. Cieślik
ABSTRACT This paper reconsiders the relationship between individual wages and regional market access. We focus on Poland – a country that has experienced profound changes in market accessibility over the last two decades, first as a consequence of European Union accession in 2004, and second as a result of the unprecedented development of the major road transport network. Using data over the period 2000–15 we find that the positive relationship between wages and regional market access disappears after 2004. At the same time, individual wages begin to be positively correlated with the market potential of Poland’s main trading partners.
本文重新思考了个人工资与区域市场准入之间的关系。我们关注的是波兰,这个国家在过去二十年中经历了市场准入的深刻变化,首先是由于2004年加入欧盟,其次是由于主要道路运输网络的空前发展。使用2000-2005年期间的数据,我们发现工资与地区市场准入之间的正相关关系在2004年后消失。与此同时,个人工资开始与波兰主要贸易伙伴的市场潜力呈正相关。
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引用次数: 2
Herd behaviour and the emergence of clusters 羊群行为和集群的出现
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-22 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2022.2061722
Gerben van Roekel, M. Smit
ABSTRACT Agglomeration externalities are generally credited as the prime cause of cluster formation. This theory is far from uncontroversial. We create an alternative perspective on clustering by integrating herd behaviour into the conceptualization of this process. An innovative agent-based model is used in which cluster formation is constructed from individual relocation decisions. It thus connects individual relocation decisions to macro-level emergent patterns and shows that imitation has the potential to severely exacerbate the effects of agglomeration economies on clustering on an urban scale. The outcomes of this model challenge the dominant neoclassical view on clustering. An alternative hypothesis is postulated in which the interaction between herd behaviour and agglomeration externalities is proposed as an explanation for cluster formation.
聚集外部性通常被认为是集群形成的主要原因。这一理论并非毫无争议。我们通过将群体行为纳入这一过程的概念化,创造了一种关于集群的替代视角。使用了一个创新的基于代理的模型,其中集群的形成是根据个人的搬迁决策构建的。因此,它将个人的搬迁决策与宏观层面的突发模式联系起来,并表明模仿有可能严重加剧集聚经济对城市规模集群的影响。该模型的结果挑战了新古典主义关于聚类的主流观点。提出了另一种假设,即羊群行为和集聚外部性之间的相互作用作为集群形成的解释。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Spatial Economic Analysis
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