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Hyping emerging military technology: probing the causes and consequences of excessive expectations 炒作新兴军事技术:探讨过度期望的原因和后果
IF 1.6 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI: 10.1177/00471178231186256
Ash Rossiter
International relations scholars and military historians episodically observe that emerging military technology can generate ‘hype’, that is, excessive expectations about the near-term impact of emerging technologies. Yet there has been little attempt to conceptualize hype, enquire as to why it occurs, or study its impact on military innovation. As decisions concerning new military technologies are highly significant for states’ military capabilities, lack of attention on hype is a non-trivial shortcoming. This article provides a framework for better understanding what hype is and examines how it effects the choices states – or more to the point, those acting on their behalf – make about which military technologies to pursue in a world where war is an ever-present possibility.
国际关系学者和军事历史学家偶尔观察到,新兴军事技术可能产生“炒作”,即对新兴技术的短期影响产生过度预期。然而,很少有人试图将炒作概念化,询问其发生的原因,或研究其对军事创新的影响。由于有关新军事技术的决策对国家的军事能力非常重要,因此不重视宣传是一个不容忽视的缺点。本文为更好地理解什么是炒作提供了一个框架,并研究了它是如何影响国家的选择的——或者更确切地说,是那些代表他们行事的人——在一个战争随时都有可能发生的世界里,选择哪种军事技术。
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引用次数: 0
Neoclassical realism, policy paradigms and strategic change: understanding the US rapprochement to Cuba 新古典现实主义、政策范式与战略变革:理解美国与古巴的和解
IF 1.6 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI: 10.1177/00471178231185665
E. Mallett, Nicholas Kitchen
Why do particular foreign policy strategies persist even when they fail to achieve their objectives? And how do such policies eventually come to change? Incorporating policy paradigms as a unifying unit-level intervening variable within a Type II neoclassical realist framework, we account for extended periods of foreign policy continuity despite ongoing policy failure, and theorise the structural conditions necessary to override intervening paradigmatic imperatives. The article illustrates the argument through an analysis of the ‘Obama thaw’, after 50 years of hostile policy towards Havana. Drawing on interviews with key officials, we show that emerging structural pressures in the Western hemisphere brought about the administration’s decision to normalise relations with Cuba.
为什么特定的外交政策策略即使未能实现其目标也能坚持下去?这些政策最终会如何改变?在II型新古典现实主义框架中,将政策范式作为统一的单位级干预变量,我们解释了在持续的政策失败的情况下延长的外交政策连续性,并理论化了推翻干预范式要求所必需的结构条件。这篇文章通过对“奥巴马解冻”的分析说明了这一论点,在对哈瓦那采取了50年的敌对政策之后。通过对主要官员的采访,我们表明,西半球出现的结构性压力促使美国政府决定与古巴实现关系正常化。
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引用次数: 0
Exercising status recognition sensibility: the empathic de-escalation of the Sino-Indian 1998 status dilemma 地位认知敏感性的行使:1998年中印地位困境的共情降级
IF 1.6 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-12 DOI: 10.1177/00471178231186270
Chiara Cervasio
Uncertain processes of status recognition might generate status dilemmas in world politics. While existing accounts are limited to the fatalist assumption that status dilemmas inevitably lead to dangerous international conflicts, I argue that status dilemma dynamics can be mitigated if one or both sides in a dyad are able to exercise a form of empathy that I call ‘status recognition sensibility’. This is the capacity and intention to understand that the actions of the adversary might be driven by erroneous perceptions of status misrecognition and to reassure them that their status is not under threat. The article investigates the case study of Sino-Indian competition in the aftermath of the 1998 Indian nuclear tests, where each side perceived the other to be challenging its claim to great power status. It concludes that the status recognition sensibility was key for ensuring diplomatic rapprochement and de-escalate tensions between the two countries.
不确定的地位承认过程可能在世界政治中产生地位困境。虽然现有的解释仅限于宿命的假设,即地位困境不可避免地会导致危险的国际冲突,但我认为,如果两分体中的一方或双方能够行使一种我称之为“地位识别敏感性”的同理心,那么地位困境的动态可以得到缓解。这是理解对手的行动可能是由对地位的错误认识所驱动的能力和意图,并使他们确信他们的地位没有受到威胁。本文调查了1998年印度核试验后中印竞争的案例研究,当时双方都认为对方在挑战自己的大国地位。它的结论是,地位承认敏感性是确保两国外交和解和缓和紧张局势的关键。
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引用次数: 0
Reconstructing neoclassical realism: a transitive approach 重建新古典现实主义:一种传递方法
IF 1.6 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1177/00471178231185747
Panos Vasileiadis
Neoclassical Realism’s (NCR) theoretical relevance is on the line. The structural realist variant of the paradigm, tasked to explain why states react inefficiently to systemic stimuli is threatened with triviality by being assigned to explain a few cases of deviance. This is given the usual lack of ability on the part of those stimuli to point to a single optimal state response. In acknowledgement of the permissiveness of systemic stimuli, a second generation of NCR scholarship has proposed the development of a general theory of explaining foreign policy as the joint result of the limits imposed by them and the function of non-systemic factors – ideas and domestic politics – in selecting outcomes from within those limits. But this endeavour has been charged with the ‘crime’ of striping NCR of its theoretical distinctiveness, based on the argument that both types of causes are prima facie symmetrical. Accepting the view that NCR faces such an impasse, this article points towards a third pathway, termed transitive NCR. What is proposed under the latter is the longitudinal study of policy trends and patterns as the outcome of the transitive interplay between systemic and non-systemic factors; that is, the careful study of the ways in which systemic factors activate a number of non-systemic causal mechanisms, leading to the explained trends and patterns. In this way, the paradigm acquires distinctiveness and sufficient explanatory breadth while building bridges with other paradigms committed to the multicausal study of long-time periods.
新古典现实主义(NCR)的理论相关性岌岌可危。该范式的结构现实主义变体,其任务是解释为什么国家对系统刺激的反应效率低下,但由于被指派解释一些越轨行为,它受到了琐碎的威胁。这是因为这些刺激通常缺乏指向单一最佳状态反应的能力。在承认系统刺激的放任性的同时,第二代NCR学者提出发展一种一般性理论,将外交政策解释为它们所施加的限制和非系统因素(思想和国内政治)在这些限制中选择结果的作用的共同结果。但这种努力被指控为剥夺NCR理论独特性的“罪行”,基于两种类型的原因都是初步对称的论点。接受NCR面临这样一个僵局的观点,本文指出了第三条途径,称为传递性NCR。后者建议对政策趋势和模式进行纵向研究,作为系统因素和非系统因素之间传递相互作用的结果;也就是说,仔细研究系统因素激活一些非系统因果机制的方式,从而导致被解释的趋势和模式。通过这种方式,范式获得了独特性和足够的解释广度,同时与致力于长期多因果研究的其他范式建立了桥梁。
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引用次数: 0
A theory’s time perspectives: contributing to a theory’s inadequacy 理论的时间视角:导致理论的不足
IF 1.6 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI: 10.1177/00471178231185669
C. Wheeler
Theories can either have something to say about the future or provide foundations for making judgments about the future. In either case, however, a theory remains inadequate for obtaining insights about the future which no amount of advancements in information access and quality or methodologies can overcome. This article suggests that inadequacy persists and cannot be completely overcome because of the long-term and short-term time perspectives embedded within a theory. Using illustrative examples of time perspectives from Morgenthau’s theory of international politics, this article illustrates and analyses how long-term and short-term time perspectives within a theory delimit claims or judgments about the future made within or derived from a theory. Subsequently, readers gain insights on how to conceptualise long-term and short-term time perspectives, methods for identifying and differentiating between time perspectives within a theory and the distinct work time perspectives perform within a theory when multiple time perspectives are present.
理论既可以对未来有所说明,也可以为对未来做出判断提供基础。然而,在任何一种情况下,理论仍然不足以获得对未来的洞察,这是信息获取和质量或方法的任何进步都无法克服的。这篇文章表明,由于理论中嵌入的长期和短期时间视角,不足之处仍然存在,无法完全克服。本文使用摩根索国际政治理论中时间视角的说明性例子,说明并分析了一种理论中的长期和短期时间视角是如何界定在一种理论中或从一种理论中得出的关于未来的主张或判断的。随后,读者将深入了解如何概念化长期和短期时间视角,识别和区分理论中的时间视角的方法,以及当存在多个时间视角时,理论中不同的工作时间视角的表现。
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引用次数: 0
Invitation games and the politics of joining US-led coalition warfare: a small state perspective 邀请游戏和加入美国领导的联盟战争的政治:一个小国的视角
IF 1.6 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-06 DOI: 10.1177/00471178231166562
Rasmus Pedersen, Yf Reykers
How do status-seeking governments in small states mobilize parliamentary support for participation in US-led warfare coalitions? We argue that the formulation of official invitations by the United States plays an overlooked instrumental role in the domestic ratification game. Invitations can be a strategic tool for governments confronted with divided parliaments to secure support for contributions close to their position. Building on a modified and reversed version of Schelling’s tying hands strategy, we develop a novel invitation game to explain dynamics in the two-level game between coalition leader, government and parliament where governments tie their hands internationally rather than domestically. By signalling their intentions and strategic commitments to the coalition leader, small state governments can seek to influence the content of the coalition leader’s invitation, which they in turn can present as a take-it-or-leave-it offer to parliament. In this way, governments can raise the perceived abandonment costs to a level that outweighs parliament’s fear of entrapment, making the latter more willing to support a forceful commitment. We illustrate the plausibility of this invitation game model with empirics from Denmark’s past contributions to US-led coalitions, which show that the domestic value of these US invitations has so far been underestimated, even in a case where there exists a strong Atlantic security predisposition. In this way, this paper not only raises attention to the importance of studying how small states decide on costly military contributions, it also shows that understanding domestic contestation of military deployments requires taking into account the strategic importance of international signals.
小国寻求地位的政府如何动员议会支持参与美国领导的战争联盟?我们认为,美国官方邀请的制定在国内批准游戏中起着被忽视的重要作用。对于面临议会分裂的政府来说,邀请可以成为一种战略工具,以确保对接近其立场的捐款的支持。在谢林捆绑策略的修改和反转版本的基础上,我们开发了一个新颖的邀请博弈来解释联盟领导人、政府和议会之间的两级博弈中的动态,在这种博弈中,政府在国际上而不是在国内捆绑自己的手。通过向联合政府领导人表明他们的意图和战略承诺,小邦政府可以寻求影响联合政府领导人邀请的内容,反过来,他们可以将其作为接受或放弃的提议提交给议会。通过这种方式,政府可以将感知到的放弃成本提高到超过议会对陷阱的恐惧的水平,使后者更愿意支持强有力的承诺。我们用丹麦过去对美国领导的联盟的贡献的经验来说明这种邀请游戏模型的合理性,这些经验表明,到目前为止,这些美国邀请的国内价值被低估了,即使在存在强大的大西洋安全倾向的情况下。通过这种方式,本文不仅引起了人们对研究小国如何决定昂贵的军事贡献的重要性的关注,而且还表明,理解国内对军事部署的争论需要考虑到国际信号的战略重要性。
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引用次数: 2
Is someone’s mercenary another’s contractor? American, British, and Russian private security companies in US and UK parliamentary debates 一个人的雇佣兵是另一个人的承包商吗?美国,英国和俄罗斯的私人保安公司在美国和英国议会辩论
IF 1.6 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-25 DOI: 10.1177/00471178231159587
M. Casiraghi, E. Cusumano
Scholars disagree on whether an anti-mercenary norm exists, whether today’s private military and security companies (PMSCs) fall under its scope, and whether the privatization of security erode parliamentary control over the use of force. We contribute to these debates by conducting a content analysis of parliamentary debates on PMSCs in the UK and US (2001–2019). Our results show that American and British politicians engage in a vehement, bipartisan criticism of Russian PMSCs, whose employees are consistently stigmatized as ruthless mercenaries irrespective of the activities they perform. Criticism of their own government’s use of PMSCs, by contrast, is more nuanced and largely made by liberal and social democratic politicians only. These findings support the argument that an anti-mercenary norm narrowly focused on for-profit providers of combat still exists, but also highlights that its interpretation is biased by nationalism and politico-economic preferences, which shape the frequency and nature of politicians’ stigmatization of private security providers
学者们对反雇佣军规范是否存在,今天的私营军事和安全公司(PMSCs)是否属于其范围,以及安全私有化是否削弱了议会对武力使用的控制等问题持不同意见。我们通过对英国和美国(2001-2019年)议会关于私营军事服务公司的辩论进行内容分析,为这些辩论做出贡献。我们的研究结果表明,美国和英国的政客们对俄罗斯私营军事服务公司进行了激烈的两党批评,这些公司的雇员无论从事什么活动,都一直被诬蔑为无情的雇佣军。相比之下,对本国政府使用私营军事服务公司的批评则更为微妙,而且主要是由自由派和社会民主党政客提出的。这些发现支持了一种观点,即狭隘地关注营利性战斗提供者的反雇佣军规范仍然存在,但也强调了其解释受到民族主义和政治经济偏好的偏见,这些偏好塑造了政治家对私人安全提供者的污名化的频率和性质
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引用次数: 0
Review essay: the nuclear curse 回顾文章:核诅咒
IF 1.6 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1177/00471178221094726
R. Lebow
The five books under review address nuclear weapons and the risk of war during the Cold War. Four of the five contend this risk was higher than understood by policymakers at the time or many scholars in its aftermath. They attribute this risk to strategic alerts, close encounters of opposing forces in crisis, and lack of access to critical intelligence. They consider the superpowers to have emerged unscathed from the Cuban missile crisis as much due to luck as leader commitments to avoid war. I interrogate the concept of “luck” and use my analysis to evaluate these arguments.
正在审查的五本书涉及核武器和冷战期间的战争风险。五人中有四人认为,这种风险比当时的政策制定者或许多学者在事后所理解的要高。他们将这种风险归因于战略警报、危机中敌对力量的近距离接触以及无法获得关键情报。他们认为,这两个超级大国在古巴导弹危机中毫发无损,既是因为运气,也是因为领导人承诺避免战争。我质疑“运气”的概念,并用我的分析来评估这些论点。
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引用次数: 0
Strength born of weakness: the advantages of open maritime polities in multipolar international systems 以弱生强:开放海洋政策在多极国际体系中的优势
IF 1.6 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.1177/00471178231157148
Mihai Murariu, George Anglițoiu
This paper focuses on open maritime polities and their competitive advantages in multipolar international systems. Firstly, the paper explores the various understandings of seapower and its possible impact in international relations, while also drawing attention to its non-military dimensions. Secondly, the paper considers the factors which affect the emergence of open maritime polities and the sustainability of their seapower. It argues that the origins of such polities can be found in their overall weakness and the opportunities provided by the sea in a multipolar international system, which, in turn, strengthens the autonomous groups that can make sustainable seapower possible to begin with. Thirdly, the dynamism and advantages of such polities in multipolar international systems are portrayed. The text focuses on medieval and early modern Venice and Genoa, including their varied strategies in using seapower in order to survive and add competitive advantages to their participation in Mediterranean-centric, multipolar international systems. The weakness which made possible the emergence of these polities fundamentally encouraged or enabled their open nature, adaptability and their agency within multipolarity. This represents a step in future research on what is arguably a mutually reinforcing connection between seapower, open societies and competitive advantages in multipolar systems.
本文主要探讨开放海洋政策及其在多极国际体系中的竞争优势。首先,本文探讨了对海权的各种理解及其在国际关系中的可能影响,同时也提请注意海权的非军事层面。其次,分析了影响开放海洋政策形成及其海权可持续性的因素。它认为,这种政治的起源可以从它们的整体弱点和海洋在多极国际体系中提供的机会中找到,多极国际体系反过来又加强了自治团体,使可持续的海权成为可能。第三,描述了在多极国际体系中这些国家的活力和优势。本书聚焦于中世纪和近代早期的威尼斯和热那亚,包括他们利用海权的各种策略,以便在以地中海为中心的多极国际体系中生存和增加竞争优势。使这些政治有可能出现的弱点从根本上鼓励或使它们具有开放性、适应性和在多极化中发挥作用。这代表着未来对多极体系中海权、开放社会和竞争优势之间相互加强的联系的研究迈出了一步。
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引用次数: 0
Trumpism and the rejection of global climate governance 特朗普主义和拒绝全球气候治理
IF 1.6 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-02-14 DOI: 10.1177/00471178231153555
Aaron Ettinger, A. Collins
This paper explains the ideational foundations of Donald Trump’s rejection of global climate cooperation and its implications for the future of global climate governance. We argue that Trumpism’s antipathy is a fundamental normative challenge to the key ideas that underpin global climate cooperation. Here we explore two specific norm contestations: (1) Collective action versus extralegal sovereignty, and (2) Common but Differentiated Responsibility versus fairness-as-reciprocity. Trump’s aggressive norm rejections are quite novel. His rejection of climate politics in particular and his desire to return to a status quo ante in world politics, positions him as a distinct type of actor in the spectrum of norm contestation – a reactionary norm entrepreneur. We contribute an ideational explanation of Trumpism’s rejection of global climate cooperation by identifying the fundamental clash of ideas and his role as a reactionary norm entrepreneur within the broader framework of global climate governance. It offers a case study in a high-profile instance of norm contestation and its implications for the survival of the global climate change regime.
本文解释了唐纳德·特朗普拒绝全球气候合作的观念基础及其对未来全球气候治理的影响。我们认为,特朗普主义的反感是对支撑全球气候合作的关键理念的根本性规范挑战。在这里,我们探讨了两个具体的规范争论:(1)集体行动与法外主权;(2)共同但有区别的责任与公平作为互惠。特朗普激进的拒绝规范相当新颖。尤其是他对气候政治的拒绝,以及他对世界政治回归现状的渴望,使他成为规范争论光谱中的一种独特类型的行动者——一名反动的规范企业家。我们对特朗普主义拒绝全球气候合作做出了观念上的解释,指出了思想上的根本冲突,以及他在更广泛的全球气候治理框架内作为反动规范企业家的角色。它提供了一个备受瞩目的规范争论的案例研究及其对全球气候变化制度生存的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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International Relations
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