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Neighborhood influence on walking acceptability to bus stops in Hanoi, Vietnam 邻里关系对越南河内公交车站步行接受度的影响
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.07.001
Ngo Trung Phuong , Masahiko Kikuchi , Aya Kojima , Hisashi Kubota

In Asian megacities, behind wide streets accessible by car, there are areas of narrow streets that are inaccessible by bus or car. This study investigates measures to improve access to bus stops in Hanoi from the perspective of the neighborhood environment of these residents. These results are expected to contribute to solving similar problems in Asian megacities. The survey divided residents into two groups, one group living on wide streets and the other group living on narrow streets in Hanoi, then obtained and analyzed data on their attitudes towards walking to bus stops through a questionnaire survey. The results revealed the following. The distance to the bus stop was accessible for both groups. Between the two groups, the attitude towards walking to the bus stop is more influenced by the location factor than the occupation (employee or student). Factors such as the benefits of walking, infrastructure, and security conditions play an important role in the decision to walk to the bus stop during the daily commute.

在亚洲的大城市中,在汽车可以通行的宽阔街道背后,存在着公共汽车或汽车无法到达的狭窄街道区域。本研究从河内居民的邻里环境角度出发,调查了改善河内公交车站交通的措施。这些结果有望为解决亚洲特大城市的类似问题做出贡献。调查将河内的居民分为两组,一组居住在宽阔的街道上,另一组居住在狭窄的街道上,然后通过问卷调查获得并分析了他们对步行前往公交车站的态度数据。结果显示如下。两组人都能走到公交车站。在两组人中,步行到公交车站的态度受地点因素的影响比受职业(雇员或学生)的影响更大。步行的好处、基础设施和安全条件等因素在决定日常通勤中步行到公交车站方面起着重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of passing sight distance required for operation of truck platooning on two-lane highways in North America 估算北美双车道高速公路上卡车排车运行所需的通过视距
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.05.003
Tanvir Chowdhury, Peter Y. Park, Kevin Gingerich

The most well-known benefits of heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) platooning include fuel savings and emission reductions. In addition, HCV platooning under SAE automation level 4 or 5 can mitigate the truck driver shortage in North America by eliminating the driver from one or more HCVs in a platoon. This study investigates the passing sight distance (PSD) required to overtake a truck platoon or long combination vehicle (LCV). The PSD is one of the most important highway geometric design parameters. This study modified the 2018 AASHTO's PSD model for HCV platooning and long combination vehicles (LCVs). A micro-simulation model is used to validate the outcomes of the modified AASHTO model. The estimated PSDs suggest that it may be possible to operate two-HCV platoons on two-lane highways that already allow LCV operation if appropriate passing lanes are installed. The study's approach and findings are expected to help transportation engineers and government agencies prioritize two-lane highway sections for possible HCV platooning operation.

重型商用车 (HCV) 排队行驶最广为人知的好处包括节省燃料和减少排放。此外,在 SAE 自动化等级 4 或 5 的情况下,HCV 排车可以通过取消排车中一辆或多辆 HCV 的驾驶员来缓解北美卡车驾驶员短缺的问题。本研究调查了超越卡车排或长组合车辆(LCV)所需的通过视距(PSD)。PSD 是最重要的高速公路几何设计参数之一。本研究修改了 2018 年 AASHTO 的 PSD 模型,以适用于 HCV 排车和长组合车辆 (LCV)。采用微观模拟模型来验证修改后的 AASHTO 模型的结果。估计的 PSD 表明,如果安装了适当的超车道,在已经允许 LCV 运营的双车道高速公路上运营双 HCV 排队是可能的。该研究的方法和结果有望帮助交通工程师和政府机构确定双车道高速公路路段的优先次序,以实现高重载车辆的排车运营。
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引用次数: 0
Role of public transport in supporting the urban cultural and creative functions 公共交通在支持城市文化和创意功能方面的作用
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.06.002
Fumihiko Nakamura

In our three-year project, the team set the final goal as a proposal for future cities and public transportation linkages in the context of cultural and creative activities in cities. As the project leader, the author first introduces a basic discussion of cities and urban public transport modes, followed by an analysis of subjective accessibility related to well-being. Second, the author introduces field surveys in New York, London, and Wien as advanced cities with excellent cultural and creative activities, as well as Toyama City in Japan, where the importance of public space redesign related to quality public transport in conjunction with cultural and creative activities is identified. Finally, the author summarizes the conclusion of the research project, including the proposal as “Yoin City” (city or district where aftertaste of any cultural and creative activities is highly respected mainly with excellent design of urban public spaces and public transport services) with “new local” concept primarily for middle-sized cities in Japan.

在我们为期三年的项目中,团队将最终目标设定为在城市文化和创意活动的背景下,提出未来城市与公共交通联系的建议。作为项目负责人,作者首先介绍了关于城市和城市公共交通模式的基本讨论,随后分析了与幸福感相关的主观可达性。其次,作者介绍了在纽约、伦敦和维也纳等文化创意活动发达的城市以及日本富山市进行的实地调查,在这些城市中,公共空间的重新设计与高质量的公共交通和文化创意活动相结合具有重要意义。最后,作者对研究项目的结论进行了总结,包括主要针对日本中等城市的 "新地方 "概念的 "Yoin City"(主要通过出色的城市公共空间设计和公共交通服务,使任何文化创意活动的余味都备受推崇的城市或地区)建议。
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引用次数: 0
Presentation technique for bicycle safety information system and its effectiveness verification 自行车安全信息系统的演示技术及其有效性验证
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.06.001
Masaki Noji , Aya Kojima , Jeyeon Kim , Tetsuya Manabe

In this study, we conducted bicycle riding experiments that focus on the method of information presentation by an automated system to cyclists, with the intent to design an information system related to bicycle safety information. In an evaluation of information presentation, we confirmed that auditory presentation was the most effective from the viewpoints of both recognition and comprehension. In addition, information presented using the auditory method was more likely to be recognized than information presented using the visual and tactile method combined. The results of the analysis of variance for recognition showed that the visual presentation method had no significant effect. In addition, the experiments involved behavioral observation using the system and a questionnaire survey on changes in behavior before and after experiencing the system. The results showed that information was correctly conveyed by the system using a combination of auditory, tactile, and visual presentation methods, regardless of the users' degree of awareness of the system. Two weeks after the experiment, a survey was conducted to investigate the changes in the participants' awareness and behavior regarding risky or illegal riding. The results showed an improvement in the awareness of risky or illegal riding in daily life and an increase in right behavior, confirming the effectiveness of this system. Consequently, the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the system and provide knowledge for realizing a bicycle riding safety support information system.

在本研究中,我们进行了自行车骑行实验,重点研究了自动系统向骑车人展示信息的方法,目的是设计一个与自行车安全信息相关的信息系统。在对信息呈现方式的评估中,我们确认从识别和理解的角度来看,听觉呈现方式最为有效。此外,使用听觉方法呈现的信息比使用视觉和触觉方法呈现的信息更容易被识别。识别率的方差分析结果表明,视觉呈现法没有显著影响。此外,实验还包括使用该系统的行为观察和体验该系统前后行为变化的问卷调查。结果表明,无论用户对系统的认知程度如何,系统都能综合运用听觉、触觉和视觉呈现方式正确传达信息。实验两周后,进行了一项调查,以了解参与者对危险或非法骑行的认识和行为的变化。结果显示,参与者在日常生活中对危险或非法骑行的认识有所提高,正确行为也有所增加,这证实了该系统的有效性。因此,这些结果证明了该系统的有效性,并为实现自行车骑行安全支持信息系统提供了知识。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling of motorcyclist injury severities: A comparison between crashes on main-, frontage-, and standard-lane of roadway 摩托车手受伤严重程度建模:主车道、前车道和标准车道碰撞事故比较
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.06.005
Chamroeun Se , Thanapong Champahom , Panuwat Wisutwattanasak , Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao , Kattreeya Chanpariyavatevong , Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha

This study aims to examine the differentiated impacts of frontage-lane, main-lane, and standard-lane motorcycle collisions on rider injury severity in Thailand. Using comprehensive crash data from 2016 to 2019, a random parameters model accommodating heterogeneity in means and variances is applied. Predictive comparisons between out-of-sample and within-sample predictions uncover differences between collision location sub-models. For frontage-lane collisions, severe or fatal injuries are positively associated with male riders, truck involvement, and speeding. In main-lane collisions, increased severe/fatal injury risk is associated with nighttime, holidays, weekends, single-motorcycle crashes, and collisions with trucks or pickups. In standard-lane collisions, positive severe/fatal injury associations include male riders, nighttime, non-peak hours, speeding, truck/pickup involvement, and pillion presence. Predictive comparisons show reorienting crashes to the frontage lane could reduce fatal injury probability by 0.1199 and 0.2233 versus the main and standard lanes respectively, preventing many fatalities. This research underscores accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and predictive simulation insights. The findings inform effective countermeasures and aid safety professionals, instructors, policymakers, law enforcement, and designers in motorcycle safety efforts.

本研究旨在探讨泰国前车道、主车道和标准车道摩托车碰撞对骑手受伤严重程度的不同影响。利用 2016 年至 2019 年的综合碰撞数据,应用了一个随机参数模型,该模型考虑了均值和方差的异质性。样本外预测与样本内预测的比较发现了碰撞位置子模型之间的差异。在前车道碰撞中,严重或致命伤害与男性车手、卡车参与和超速呈正相关。在主车道碰撞中,严重/致命伤害风险的增加与夜间、节假日、周末、单辆摩托车碰撞以及与卡车或皮卡车碰撞有关。在标准车道的碰撞事故中,男性骑手、夜间、非高峰时段、超速、涉及卡车/皮卡车以及有副驾的情况与严重/致命伤害呈正相关。预测性比较显示,将碰撞调整到前车道可将致命伤害概率分别比主车道和标准车道降低 0.1199 和 0.2233,从而避免许多死亡事故。这项研究强调了对未观察到的异质性的考虑和预测模拟的见解。研究结果为有效的应对措施提供了信息,并有助于安全专业人员、教员、政策制定者、执法人员和摩托车安全设计人员的工作。
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引用次数: 0
A proposed overtaking model for Egyptian two-lane two-way roads 埃及双车道双向公路超车模型提案
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.06.004
Ahmed Shoaeb , Sherif M. El-Badawy , Sayed Shawly , Usama Elrawy Shahdah

Overtaking is one of the most complex maneuvers on the two-lane two-way (TLTW) roads, where the follower vehicles use the opposing lane to bypass the leader slower vehicles. Overtaking becomes more riskier with the presence of oncoming vehicles from the opposite direction. This paper presents the development of an overtaking model for the Egyptian TLTW roads under mixed traffic conditions. About 20-h of videotaped data from 6 different TLTW roads, located in the Delta region in Egypt are studied to develop the proposed model. This model considers key factors affecting model performance that are not considered in most international state-of-the-art models. These factors include (a) acceleration of the follower vehicle (FV) during all phases of overtaking, (b) deceleration of the leader vehicle (LV), (c) length of the LV, and (d) speed change of the LV during overtaking. The proposed overtaking model is divided into two parts. The first part includes two conditions as criteria for acceptance/rejection decision of overtaking while the second part computes the overtaking duration and the corresponding distance for successful overtakes. The model is calibrated for 4 sites and validated on the remaining 2 sites. The results show that the proposed overtaking model matches closely the observed accepted and rejected overtakes by 96.45% and 95.90%, respectively. Furthermore, the results showed that the proposed model was consistent with the observed overtaking distances and times. In addition, the results are compared with other international models such as the Ghods, Tang, TWO-PAS, and Cirianni models.

在双线双向(TLTW)道路上,超车是最复杂的机动动作之一,即跟随车辆利用对向车道绕过速度较慢的领先车辆。由于对向来车的存在,超车变得更加危险。本文介绍了埃及 TLTW 道路混合交通条件下超车模型的开发情况。本文研究了埃及三角洲地区 6 条不同 TLTW 道路的约 20 小时录像数据,以开发所建议的模型。该模型考虑了影响模型性能的关键因素,而这些因素在大多数国际先进模型中都没有考虑到。这些因素包括:(a) 跟车(FV)在超车所有阶段的加速度;(b) 领车(LV)的减速;(c) LV 的长度;(d) LV 在超车过程中的速度变化。建议的超车模型分为两个部分。第一部分包括两个条件,作为接受/拒绝超车决定的标准;第二部分计算超车持续时间和成功超车的相应距离。该模型在 4 个地点进行了校准,并在其余 2 个地点进行了验证。结果表明,所提出的超车模型与观察到的接受超车和拒绝超车的吻合度分别为 96.45% 和 95.90%。此外,结果表明,建议的超车模型与观测到的超车距离和时间一致。此外,还将结果与其他国际模型进行了比较,如 Ghods、Tang、TWO-PAS 和 Cirianni 模型。
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引用次数: 0
Critical patterns associated with vehicle-pedestrian hit-and-run casualty injury severity under different weather conditions: An association rule mining approach 不同天气条件下车辆与行人肇事逃逸伤亡严重程度的关键模式:关联规则挖掘方法
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.06.003
Reuben Tamakloe , Emmanuel Kofi Adanu

Vehicle-pedestrian hit-and-run crashes have grave consequences as the pedestrian casualty is left at the crash scene, leading to delays in emergency response. Research indicates that prevailing weather conditions are pivotal in influencing these crashes. Nonetheless, there exists a substantial gap in understanding the diverse associations of contributing factors that impact the severity of pedestrian injuries in vehicle-pedestrian hit-and-run crashes under varying weather conditions. This paper extensively examines the intricate patterns of critical factor associations influencing the pedestrian casualty injury severity in vehicle-pedestrian hit-and-run collisions in Ghana, differentiating between clear and inclement weather conditions. Leveraging historical crash data, this research employs the robust Association Rule Mining tool to unveil the relationships between key crash factors and their outcomes. The association rules extracted from the data reveal that specific factors consistently influence injury outcomes in vehicle-pedestrian hit-and-run crashes, regardless of weather conditions. However, there are distinct patterns of factors contributing to fatal and severe injuries in these crashes that vary depending on the prevailing weather conditions. Hit-and-run crashes resulting in fatal and severe pedestrian injuries are primarily associated with males and are notably correlated with factors like pedestrian crossings, late and early morning hours, the absence of traffic control measures on median-separated motorways, and good urban roads, regardless of prevailing weather conditions. During clear weather conditions, fatal/severe injuries tend to occur in daylight conditions, primarily on roadways devoid of shoulders, and involve older pedestrians crossing the road. Conversely, for inclement weather conditions, these crashes are more prone to occur during nighttime hours on unlit roads, often involving younger pedestrians walking along the road's edge. The reduction of fatal/severe injury hit-and-run crashes involving vehicles and pedestrians can be effectively tackled by eliminating or improving the critical factors pinpointed in the extracted rules. The study underscores the urgency of policy recommendations to mitigate fatalities resulting from vehicle-pedestrian hit-and-run crashes, emphasising the need for stricter legislation, heightened enforcement measures, increased awareness of pedestrian safety, enhanced driver training, and infrastructure upgrades. By acting on these insights, a significant stride can be made in curbing the alarming rates of vehicle-pedestrian hit-and-run fatalities.

车辆与行人之间的肇事逃逸事故会造成严重后果,因为行人会被留在事故现场,导致应急响应的延误。研究表明,当时的天气条件是影响这些撞车事故的关键因素。然而,对于在不同天气条件下车辆与行人肇事逃逸事故中影响行人受伤严重程度的各种关联因素的理解还存在很大差距。本文广泛研究了加纳晴朗和恶劣天气条件下车辆与行人肇事逃逸碰撞事故中影响行人伤亡严重程度的关键因素之间错综复杂的关联模式。本研究利用历史碰撞数据,采用强大的关联规则挖掘工具来揭示关键碰撞因素与其结果之间的关系。从数据中提取的关联规则显示,在车辆与行人肇事逃逸的碰撞事故中,无论天气条件如何,特定因素始终会对伤害结果产生影响。然而,在这些撞车事故中,导致致命和严重伤害的因素存在明显的模式,这些模式因当时的天气条件而异。导致行人死亡和重伤的肇事逃逸事故主要与男性有关,并且与行人过街、深夜和清晨时段、中间分隔机动车道没有交通管制措施以及良好的城市道路等因素明显相关,与当时的天气条件无关。在晴朗的天气条件下,致命/严重伤害事故往往发生在白天,主要发生在没有路肩的道路上,涉及年长的行人横穿马路。相反,在恶劣的天气条件下,这些撞车事故更容易发生在夜间无照明的道路上,通常涉及沿着道路边缘行走的年轻行人。通过消除或改进摘录规则中指出的关键因素,可以有效减少涉及车辆和行人的致命/重伤肇事逃逸事故。这项研究强调了为减少车辆与行人肇事逃逸导致的死亡事故而提出政策建议的紧迫性,强调需要更严格的立法、加强执法措施、提高行人安全意识、加强驾驶员培训和基础设施升级。根据这些见解采取行动,可以在遏制令人震惊的车辆行人肇事逃逸死亡率方面取得重大进展。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring interacting effects of risk factors on run-off-road crash severity: An interpretable machine learning model joint with latent class clustering 探索风险因素对径流道路碰撞严重程度的交互影响:与潜在类别聚类相结合的可解释机器学习模型
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.05.005
Seyed Alireza Samerei, Kayvan Aghabayk

Run-Off-Road (ROR) crashes are frequent and pose a significant risk of injury and fatality. Given the complexity of their mechanisms and the interaction of multiple factors, this study aims to comprehensively investigate the factors influencing the severity of ROR crashes, which have been understudied. Furthermore, addressing the current methodological challenge in machine learning (ML) crash modeling, this study proposes an approach to tackle unobserved heterogeneity in ML. An interpretable ML joint with prior latent class clustering is implemented. The significant risk factors and interactions are interpreted using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method across clusters. This study utilizes ROR crash records, traffic, and geometric data from main suburban freeways in Iran collected over a 5-year period. The key interacting factors associated with severe ROR during adverse weather (cluster 1) are: co-occurrence of low congestion and higher speed variation; low congestion, nighttime darkness and rollover; roadway departure by buses and mini-buses and rollover occurrence; vehicle departure and collision with fixed objects. Moreover, the critical interactions for nighttime condition (cluster 2) are: curve sections combined with longitudinal slope; inside shoulder width <1.5 m and a hit median concrete NewJersey barrier. The risky interactions for crashes occurred in curves (cluster 3) are: departing in two-lane sections in low congestion conditions; vehicles collisions with the median concrete NewJersey barriers. The findings of this study enhance comprehension of the significant effects of interactions under various conditions, offering valuable insights for policymakers. Additionally, recommendations are offered to mitigate the risk of severe ROR crashes.

失控道路(ROR)碰撞事故频繁发生,造成重大伤亡风险。鉴于其机理的复杂性和多种因素的相互作用,本研究旨在全面调查影响 ROR 碰撞严重性的因素,而对这些因素的研究一直不足。此外,针对当前机器学习(ML)碰撞建模方法上的挑战,本研究提出了一种方法来解决 ML 中未观察到的异质性问题。本研究采用了一种带有先验潜类聚类的可解释 ML 联合方法。使用 SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)方法对各聚类中的重要风险因素和相互作用进行解释。本研究利用了 5 年内收集的伊朗主要郊区高速公路的 ROR 碰撞记录、交通和几何数据。与恶劣天气下(群组 1)严重 ROR 相关的关键交互因素包括:低拥堵和高速变化的同时发生;低拥堵、夜间黑暗和翻车;公共汽车和小型公共汽车驶离道路和翻车发生;车辆驶离和与固定物体碰撞。此外,夜间条件下(第 2 组)的关键交互作用是:曲线路段与纵坡相结合;内侧路肩宽度为 1.5 米,以及撞上中间混凝土新泽西护栏。在弯道(第 3 组)中发生碰撞的风险相互作用是:在低拥堵条件下在双车道路段出发;车辆与中间混凝土新泽西护栏发生碰撞。这项研究的结果加深了人们对各种条件下相互作用的重大影响的理解,为政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解。此外,还提出了降低严重 ROR 碰撞风险的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Research on safety measures with a focus on the psychological and behavioral characteristics of bicycle users, from children to senior citizens 研究安全措施,重点关注自行车使用者(从儿童到老年人)的心理和行为特征
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.05.004
Kazumi Renge

As part of a research project of the International Association for Traffic and Safety Sciences (IATSS), a series of surveys were conducted on the behavior of cyclists and the countermeasures. This paper outlines the mechanisms of bicycle accidents in Japan and their countermeasures. According to accident statistics, the two target groups for the prevention of bicycle accidents include the child population of elementary, junior high, and high school students, and the older population aged 65 years and over. Questionnaires and behavioral observation surveys of junior high school students revealed tendencies for students to violate rules, such as not stopping temporarily, not searching left and right at crossings, riding alongside, and looking aside when riding. A field experiment with junior high school students using gyro sensors revealed that their level of searching for safety was extremely low. Furthermore, clear differences existed in the manner in which each individual searched. Based on these results, several educational and practical activities were performed. In addition, a study was conducted with older cyclists at a driving school to measure behavioral characteristics, such as searching behavior at crossings and riding (walking) position. The license status factor significantly impacted the safety aspects of the behavior of older cyclists, with unlicensed cyclists lacking safety searching behavior when passing through intersections and crossing the road and having lower riding position scores.

作为国际交通与安全科学协会 (IATSS) 研究项目的一部分,对骑自行车者的行为和对策进行了一系列调查。本文概述了日本自行车事故的发生机制及其对策。根据事故统计数据,预防自行车事故的两个目标群体包括小学生、初中生和高中生等儿童群体以及 65 岁及以上的老年人群。对初中生的问卷调查和行为观察调查显示,学生有违反规则的倾向,如不临时停车、在十字路口不左顾右盼、并排骑车、骑车时向旁边看等。使用陀螺仪传感器对初中生进行的实地实验显示,他们的安全意识极低。此外,每个人的搜索方式也存在明显差异。基于这些结果,我们开展了多项教育和实践活动。此外,还在一所驾校对骑自行车的老年人进行了一项研究,以测量他们的行为特征,如在十字路口的搜索行为和骑行(行走)姿势。驾照状况因素对老年骑车者的安全行为有很大影响,无照骑车者在通过十字路口和横穿马路时缺乏安全搜索行为,骑行姿势得分也较低。
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引用次数: 0
Calibration and development of safety performance functions for two-way stop-control intersections on rural two-lane highways in Louisiana 路易斯安那州乡村双车道高速公路双向停车控制交叉口安全性能函数的校准与开发
IF 3.2 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.05.001
Ming Sun , Xiaoduan Sun , Ruiche Liu , Siyuan Hao , Jiahui Li

The first edition of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) contains a simplistic version of the crash prediction model for two-way stop-controlled intersections (TWSC) on rural two-lane highways. This model considers AADT on major and minor roads, with the base conditions defined as no intersection skewness, no turning lanes, and no lighting. A crash modification factor (CMF) will be applied if an intersection has conditions different from the base condition. However, the HSM model does not take account of curvature. It is well known that curved TWSC intersections are less safe than non-curved ones, particularly on rural two-lane roadways. This paper presents the development of crash prediction models incorporating intersection geometrics for TWSC intersections on rural two-lane highways in Louisiana. Then, it compares the results from the developed model with the calibrated HSM model. The negative binomial model was used with 5126 TWSC intersections verified one by one, including both three- and four-leg intersections from all parishes (counties). The estimation results indicate that AADT, curve radius, and intersection skewness angle significantly impact expected crash frequency for both three- and four-leg intersections. This research utilizes cumulative residual plots, mean absolute error, and root mean square error for comparative analysis of HSM models, HSM models with calibration, and Louisiana-specific models. The results show that Louisiana-specific SPFs outperformed the calibrated SPFs with superior reliability. Calibration factors of 0.58 for three-leg intersections and 0.46 for four-leg intersections are estimated, suggesting that the original HSM model overpredicts crashes in Louisiana.

公路安全手册》(HSM)第一版包含一个简化版的碰撞预测模型,适用于农村双车道高速公路上的双向停车控制交叉口(TWSC)。该模型考虑了主干道和次干道的平均每日交通流量,基本条件定义为无交叉口倾斜、无转弯车道和无照明。如果交叉路口的条件与基础条件不同,则会应用碰撞修正系数 (CMF)。不过,HSM 模型并不考虑弯度。众所周知,弯曲的 TWSC 交叉路口的安全性低于非弯曲交叉路口,尤其是在乡村双车道道路上。本文介绍了路易斯安那州乡村双车道公路 TWSC 交叉口碰撞预测模型的开发情况,其中包括交叉口的几何形状。然后,将所开发模型的结果与经过校准的 HSM 模型进行比较。使用负二项模型对 5126 个 TWSC 交叉口进行了逐一验证,包括所有教区(县)的三腿和四腿交叉口。估计结果表明,AADT、曲线半径和交叉口倾斜角对三脚和四脚交叉口的预期碰撞频率有显著影响。本研究利用累积残差图、平均绝对误差和均方根误差对 HSM 模型、带校准的 HSM 模型和路易斯安那州特定模型进行了比较分析。结果表明,路易斯安那州特定 SPF 的可靠性优于校准 SPF。据估计,三脚交叉路口的校准系数为 0.58,四脚交叉路口的校准系数为 0.46,这表明原始 HSM 模型对路易斯安那州的碰撞事故预测过高。
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