IATSS Research最新文献_第6页

Unpacking the relationship between task complexity and driving risk: Insights from a UK on-road trial 解开任务复杂性和驾驶风险之间的关系：来自英国道路试验的见解

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

IATSS Research

Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2025.03.003

Evita Papazikou , Rachel Talbot , Laurie Brown , Sally Maynard , Ashleigh Filtness

This study investigates the intricate relationship between task complexity and driving risk through a comprehensive four-phase on-road trial conducted in the UK. Employing Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), the research illuminates the factors influencing task complexity and its association with risk, treating both as latent concepts—unobservable variables in the study. The findings reveal a notable positive correlation between task complexity and risk, particularly concerning the headway indicator. In essence, the study demonstrates that an escalation in task complexity corresponds to an increased level of risk.

Throughout the four SEM analyses performed across two waves of on-road trials, the time spent in each safety tolerance zone level for headway measurements emerges as a key indicator of the latent construct of risk in all phases. Notably, the variables constituting the latent concept of task complexity—those proven statistically significant—show slight variations across phases. Variables consistently significant across all phases include the number of right Lane Departure Warnings (LDWs) per 30 s and the day of the week.

The models reveal the feasibility of quantifying the risk-task complexity relationship in real-world driving settings. This study provides insights to inform efforts to mitigate risk exposure through design and training interventions, targeting the most predictive factors linked to task complexity. Driver demographics did not emerge as statistically significant, emphasising the need for a holistic approach to improve road safety.

本研究通过在英国进行的一项全面的四阶段道路试验，调查了任务复杂性和驾驶风险之间的复杂关系。本研究采用结构方程模型（SEM），阐明了影响任务复杂性的因素及其与风险的关系，并将两者视为潜在概念-研究中的不可观察变量。研究结果显示，任务复杂性和风险之间存在显著的正相关关系，特别是在车头时距指标方面。从本质上讲，这项研究表明，任务复杂性的升级对应于风险水平的增加。在两波道路试验中进行的四次扫描电镜分析中，车头时距测量在每个安全容忍区水平上花费的时间成为所有阶段潜在风险构建的关键指标。值得注意的是，构成任务复杂性潜在概念的变量——那些被证明具有统计学意义的变量——在不同阶段表现出轻微的变化。在所有阶段中，重要的变量包括每30秒和一周中的哪一天发出的右车道偏离警告（ldw）的次数。这些模型揭示了在现实驾驶环境中量化风险-任务复杂性关系的可行性。这项研究为通过设计和培训干预措施来降低风险暴露的努力提供了见解，目标是与任务复杂性相关的最可预测因素。驾驶员的人口统计数据在统计上并不显著，这强调了需要采取整体方法来改善道路安全。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding psychological factors behind motorcyclists crossing behavior on undivided roads in mixed traffic conditions: A case study of Hau Giang, Vietnam 了解混合交通条件下摩托车手在未分割道路上穿越行为背后的心理因素：以越南Hau Giang为例

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

IATSS Research

Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2025.02.003

Hai Ngoc Duong , Minh Cong Chu , Nathan Huynh

Motorcycle crashes are a common occurrence in developing countries with mixed traffic. A contributing factor to these crashes is the crossing maneuvers of motorcyclists on undivided roadways. This study applies the Theory of Planned Behavior to understand the intentions and behaviors of these motorcyclists when making such maneuvers. It utilizes data from two surveys conducted in Hau Giang, Vietnam in 2022. The first investigation surveyed 351 participants to elicit the motorcyclists' behavioral beliefs and control beliefs when making crossing maneuvers that complied with traffic rules (complying maneuvers, CM), and the second investigation interviewed 260 respondents to elicit motorcyclists' beliefs when making crossing maneuvers that violated traffic rules (illegal maneuvers, IM). By applying the Structural Equation Modeling approach, the results reveal that the intention of motorcyclists to perform crossing maneuvers (CMs) is influenced by facilitating circumstances, subjective norms, and descriptive norms. In contrast, the intention to perform improper maneuvers (IMs) is driven by advantage beliefs, descriptive norms, facilitating circumstances, subjective norms, and driving situation awareness. Additionally, risk perception directly affects motorcyclists' performance of CMs, while near-miss incidents related to IMs are directly influenced by facilitating circumstances and perceived risk. These findings suggest that reducing improper maneuvers and promoting safer road-crossing performance can be achieved through targeted safety intervention strategies. Such strategies could include addressing the consequences of advantage beliefs regarding IMs and enhancing riders' situation awareness and risk perception through driver education and training programs.

摩托车撞车事故在混合交通的发展中国家很常见。造成这些事故的一个因素是摩托车手在未分割的道路上的穿越动作。本研究运用计划行为理论来理解这些摩托车手在进行此类机动时的意图和行为。它利用了2022年在越南豪江进行的两次调查的数据。第一次调查通过对351名被试进行问卷调查，引出摩托车手在符合交通规则的情况下的行为信念和控制信念；第二次调查通过对260名被试进行问卷调查，引出摩托车手在违反交通规则的情况下的行为信念和控制信念。运用结构方程建模方法，研究结果表明：机动车驾驶员的穿越意愿受便利环境、主观规范和描述性规范的影响。相反，执行不当操作的意图是由优势信念、描述性规范、促进环境、主观规范和驱动情景意识驱动的。此外，风险感知直接影响摩托车手的医疗管理绩效，而与医疗管理相关的未遂事件直接受到便利环境和感知风险的影响。这些研究结果表明，通过有针对性的安全干预策略，可以减少不适当的操作，促进更安全的过马路行为。这些策略可以包括解决关于即时交通的优势信念的后果，并通过驾驶员教育和培训计划提高乘客的情况意识和风险感知。

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引用次数: 0

Pedestrian gap acceptance behavior at unsignalized mid-block crossing under mixed traffic conditions 混合交通条件下无信号中路人行横道行人缺口接受行为研究

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

IATSS Research

Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2025.03.001

Satanan Piyalungka , Kunnawee Kanitpong , Ampol Karoonsoontawong

In Thailand, 68 % of pedestrian crashes on national highways in 2021 occurred when they were crossing the road. Pedestrians may encounter difficulties when deciding on the minimum safe gap to cross the road under diverse conditions, especially when the approaching vehicle sizes are different. Pedestrian safety is a crucial concern. This study analyzed the critical gap and dilemma zone for pedestrians crossing unsignalized mid-block crosswalks in Bangkok, Thailand, utilizing Raff's and logit methods. Multiple linear regression and binary logit regression models were developed to identify the factors affecting accepted gap size and gap acceptance behavior. Findings indicated that critical gaps and dilemma zones differed between two-lane and four-lane road sections, while the type of approaching vehicle had the strongest effect on accepted gap size. Pedestrians tended to accept smaller gaps when the approaching vehicle was a motorcycle. Several factors including yielding behavior, waiting time, age, crossing speed of pedestrians, and vehicle speed significantly influenced gap acceptance.

在泰国，2021年国家公路上68%的行人撞车事故发生在他们过马路的时候。行人在不同的情况下，特别是在驶近的车辆大小不同的情况下，在决定过马路的最小安全距离时，可能会遇到困难。行人安全是一个至关重要的问题。本研究利用Raff和logit方法，分析了泰国曼谷无信号街区中间人行横道的行人临界间隙和两难区。建立多元线性回归和二元logit回归模型，确定影响可接受间隙大小和间隙接受行为的因素。结果表明，两车道和四车道路段的临界间隙和两难区存在差异，而接近车辆类型对可接受间隙大小的影响最大。当接近的车辆是摩托车时，行人倾向于接受较小的间隙。退让行为、等待时间、年龄、行人过马路速度、车速等因素对间隙接受度有显著影响。

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引用次数: 0

Assessment of a two-way motorcycle lane to reduce traffic conflicts and their severity: A case study of Phaholyothin road, Thailand 评估双向摩托车道以减少交通冲突及其严重程度：以泰国Phaholyothin道路为例

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

IATSS Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2025.02.002

Harshana Senanayake, Kunnawee Kanitpong

In Thailand, traffic rule violations and crashes involving motorcycles have increased with the rising number of new motorcycle registrations. A common issue in Thai traffic is motorcyclists riding in the wrong direction. This research proposes a two-way motorcycle lane design to address the wrong-way riding behavior of motorcyclists in Thailand. The design aims to segregate motorcycles from larger vehicles, improving safety. Traffic simulation software was used to model a selected road section in Thailand, incorporating the wrong-way riding behavior. After calibration, the proposed two-way motorcycle lane design was simulated within the same network. Traffic conflicts in each network were analyzed using the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM). The safety of the proposed design was compared to the existing conditions and found to result in fewer severe conflicts, especially when priority is given to motorcycles at access points. The study also identified the most suitable width for the two-way motorcycle lane based on the safety assessment. For the motorcycle lane priority option, a 3-m lane width was found to be the safest, while for the option with priority given to vehicles on access roads, a 3.5-m lane width was identified as the safest design.

在泰国，随着新摩托车登记数量的增加，涉及摩托车的交通规则违规和撞车事故也在增加。泰国交通的一个常见问题是摩托车手逆行。本研究提出了一种双向摩托车车道设计，以解决泰国摩托车手的错误骑行行为。该设计旨在将摩托车与大型车辆隔离开来，以提高安全性。交通模拟软件被用来模拟泰国选定的路段，包括错误的骑行行为。校正后，在同一网络内对所提出的摩托车双向车道设计进行了仿真。采用代理安全评估模型（SSAM）对各网络中的流量冲突进行分析。将拟议设计的安全性与现有条件进行比较，发现导致较少的严重冲突，特别是当在接入点优先考虑摩托车时。在安全评价的基础上，确定了摩托车双向车道的最适宜宽度。对于摩托车车道优先方案，3 m车道宽度是最安全的，而对于通道上的车辆优先方案，3.5 m车道宽度是最安全的设计。

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引用次数: 0

Risk assessment and hybrid algorithm transportation path optimization model for road transport of dangerous goods 道路危险货物运输风险评估及混合算法运输路径优化模型

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

IATSS Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2025.01.003

Qiankun Jiang , Haiyan Wang

The current risk assessment methods for dangerous goods roads have the problem of being unable to cope with complex road conditions and the influence of multiple factors. This study extends 9 tertiary indicators from three secondary indicators: personnel factors, vehicle factors, and road factors, to evaluate the transportation risk of dangerous goods. After calculating the weights of each indicator, this study improves the parameters of the particle swarm algorithm using the aggregation and foraging behavior of artificial fish, and uses the improved algorithm to solve the optimal solution for the cost of dangerous goods road transportation. After experimental verification, the improved hybrid algorithm has optimized the path transportation time by 13.9 % compared to a single algorithm model. The total risk of simultaneously improving the algorithm was 0.8863, and the total transportation distance was 861 km, both lower than other algorithms. The comprehensive analysis shows that the established model is reasonable, and the designed improved hybrid algorithm can improve the efficiency of the transportation industry, while also contributing to the improvement of the current cost status of dangerous goods road transportation.

现有的危险品道路风险评估方法存在着无法应对复杂路况和多因素影响的问题。本研究从人员因素、车辆因素、道路因素三个二级指标延伸出9个三级指标，对危险品运输风险进行评价。在计算各指标的权重后，利用人工鱼的聚集觅食行为对粒子群算法的参数进行改进，并利用改进后的算法求解危险品道路运输成本的最优解。经过实验验证，改进的混合算法比单一算法模型优化了13.9%的路径运输时间。同时改进算法的总风险为0.8863，总运输距离为861 km，均低于其他算法。综合分析表明，所建立的模型是合理的，所设计的改进混合算法可以提高运输行业的效率，同时也有助于改善目前危险品道路运输的成本状况。

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引用次数: 0

Quantifying the relationship between auditory distractions, reaction time, and crash probability 量化听觉干扰、反应时间和碰撞概率之间的关系

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

IATSS Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2025.02.001

Rajesh Chouhan , Ashish Dhamaniya , A. Mohan Rao , Kamini Gupta

Mobile phones and listening to music while driving have become increasingly common behaviors despite the known risks they pose. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of phone call and listening to music on drivers' reaction times and to assess how these distractions influence the probability of crashes. Seventy seven participants with different age groups and gender were tested for their reaction time under three different environmental conditions: Normal, listening to music, and talking on the phone. Further, an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) was used to collect traffic data on the National Highway, Signalized Intersection, and Toll Plaza. An automatic trajectory extraction tool was used to find the Time to Collision (TTC) values between different leader-follower pairs at all these locations. Reaction time variation under various testing conditions was plotted against the TTC values obtained from the field data to evaluate the real field accident probability. Under Normal condition, the average reaction times are 0.704 s for females and 0.727 s for males. With Music, the averages slightly increase to 0.743 s for females and 0.764 s for males. The Call condition shows a more pronounced effect, with average reaction times jumping to 0.800 s for females and 0.874 s for males. The study reveals that listening to music resulted in a 5.281 % increase in reaction time and a 10.57 % increase in crash probability compared to normal conditions. Being on a call had a much larger impact, resulting in an 18.47 % increase in reaction time and a 27.35 % increase in crash probability compared to normal conditions. These findings highlight the importance of avoiding distractions while driving and suggest that phone calls should be avoided while behind the wheel. The study can be used to develop policies regarding the use of mobile phones and also to compare accident risk across different traffic facilities.

开车时打电话和听音乐已经成为越来越普遍的行为，尽管它们会带来已知的风险。这项研究的目的是研究打电话和听音乐对司机反应时间的影响，并评估这些干扰是如何影响撞车概率的。研究人员测试了77名不同年龄和性别的参与者在三种不同环境条件下的反应时间：正常、听音乐和打电话。此外，使用无人机（UAV）收集国道、信号交叉口和收费广场的交通数据。使用自动轨迹提取工具，在所有这些位置找到不同领导-追随者对之间的碰撞时间（TTC）值。将不同测试条件下的反应时间变化与现场数据获得的TTC值进行对比，以评估实际现场事故概率。正常情况下，女性平均反应时间为0.704 s，男性平均反应时间为0.727 s。在音乐方面，女性的平均时间为0.743秒，男性为0.764秒。呼叫条件的影响更为明显，雌性的平均反应时间为0.800 s，雄性为0.874 s。研究表明，与正常情况相比，听音乐导致反应时间增加5.281%，碰撞概率增加10.57%。接听电话的影响要大得多，与正常情况相比，反应时间增加了18.47%，碰撞概率增加了27.35%。这些发现强调了开车时避免分心的重要性，并建议开车时避免打电话。这项研究可以用来制定有关手机使用的政策，也可以用来比较不同交通设施的事故风险。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the potential of half-height platform screen doors to prevent personal injury accidents: Evidence from the Tokyo metropolitan area railway network 评估半高站台纱门预防人身伤害事故的潜力：来自东京都市圈铁路网的证据

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

IATSS Research

Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2025.01.002

Akira Okada, Taku Oshima

While railway travel in Japan is considered one of the safest modes of transportation, passengers on station platforms still face notable risks, including hundreds of injuries and fatalities caused annually due to passenger falls, track intrusions, and collisions with trains. In response, railway operators have been working to enhance platform safety through the installation of platform screen doors (PSDs), supported with subsidies from the Japanese government and guided by numerical targets set by the government to promote their widespread adoption and reduce personal injury accidents. As prior research has primarily focused on their impact on suicide prevention, the effectiveness of PSDs in preventing various types of personal injury accidents has received limited attention. In this study, we compiled data on railway personal injury accidents in the Tokyo metropolitan area from 2002 to 2018, classified by accident attributes, as well as data on passenger numbers and PSD installation periods. Using a fixed-effect Poisson model, we estimated the extent to which the installation of half-height PSDs reduced personal injury accidents. The results show that the installation of PSDs led to a statistically significant reduction (93.1 %) in platform accidents, and almost completely prevented fatal incidents. Although the relationship between passenger volumes and accident frequency was expected to be positive, the parameter for passenger numbers was not statistically significant in most models, possibly due to the limitations of the dataset collected before COVID-19. These findings underscore the potential of PSD installations not only in improving platform safety but also in prompting further analysis of their cost-effectiveness to guide future implementation strategies.

虽然日本的铁路旅行被认为是最安全的交通方式之一，但站在站台上的乘客仍然面临着显著的风险，包括每年因乘客摔倒、轨道侵入和与火车相撞而造成的数百人受伤和死亡。作为回应，铁路运营商一直在努力通过安装站台屏蔽门（psd）来提高站台安全性，在日本政府的补贴支持下，并在政府设定的数字目标的指导下，促进其广泛采用，减少人身伤害事故。由于先前的研究主要集中在其对自杀预防的影响上，因此对psd在预防各类人身伤害事故中的有效性的关注有限。在这项研究中，我们收集了2002年至2018年东京大都市地区的铁路人身伤害事故数据，按事故属性分类，以及乘客人数和PSD安装周期的数据。使用固定效应泊松模型，我们估计了安装半高psd减少人身伤害事故的程度。结果表明，安装psd后，平台事故发生率显著降低（93.1%），几乎完全避免了致命事故的发生。尽管预计客运量与事故频率之间的关系为正，但可能由于COVID-19之前收集的数据集的局限性，大多数模型中的乘客人数参数在统计上不显著。这些发现强调了PSD安装的潜力，不仅可以提高平台的安全性，还可以促进对其成本效益的进一步分析，以指导未来的实施策略。

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引用次数: 0

Critical conflict probability: A novel risk measure for quantifying intensity of crash risk at unsignalized intersections 临界冲突概率：一种量化无信号交叉口碰撞风险强度的新风险测度

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

IATSS Research

Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2025.01.001

Aninda Bijoy Paul Ph.D. , Ninad Gore Ph.D. , Shriniwas Arkatkar Ph.D. , Gaurang Joshi Ph.D. , Md Mazharul Haque Ph.D.

A significant number of traffic crashes are reported at unsignalized intersections. However, in developing countries, challenges such as underreporting and limited crash data hinder the direct correlation of traffic conflicts with reported crashes for effective safety analysis. To address this, the study introduces Critical Conflict Probability (CCP) as a novel metric to quantify the intensity of conflict risk at unsignalized intersections. Higher CCP values indicate a greater likelihood of crash risk. CCP is derived from Post-Encroachment Time (PET) using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)-based extreme value theory (EVT) modeling framework. The CCP values are modeled as a function of traffic flow and driving behavior variables using three approaches: fixed parameters, random intercept, and grouped random parameters Beta regression models. The results revealed grouped random parameters Beta regression model as the best fit, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial unobserved heterogeneity. As a practical outcome, the study develops a CCP-based intersection prioritization framework to rank and identify critical intersections within a traffic network, enabling traffic planners to improve safety management in data-scarce environments.

据报道，大量的交通事故发生在没有信号的十字路口。然而，在发展中国家，诸如少报和有限的碰撞数据等挑战阻碍了将交通冲突与报告的碰撞直接联系起来进行有效的安全分析。为了解决这一问题，本研究引入临界冲突概率（CCP）作为一种新的度量来量化无信号交叉口的冲突风险强度。CCP值越高，表明崩溃风险的可能性越大。CCP是利用基于广义极值（GEV）的极值理论（EVT）建模框架，从入侵后时间（PET）推导出来的。CCP值被建模为交通流量和驾驶行为变量的函数，使用三种方法：固定参数、随机截距和分组随机参数Beta回归模型。结果显示，分组随机参数Beta回归模型最适合，突出了考虑空间不可观测异质性的重要性。作为一项实际成果，该研究开发了一个基于ccp的十字路口优先排序框架，用于对交通网络中的关键十字路口进行排序和识别，使交通规划者能够在数据稀缺的环境中改进安全管理。

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引用次数: 0

Analysis of land-use and POIs contributing to traffic accidents around intersections 十字路口附近交通事故的土地利用和公共设施分析

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

IATSS Research

Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.12.004

Satoshi Nakao , Koshi Sawada , Andreas Keler , Jan-Dirk Schmöcker

In Japan more than half of all traffic accidents occur at or near intersections and many at small intersections where only minor roads cross. A database of all intersections in the built-up area of Kyoto, Japan was created using Open Street Map data, including spatial characteristics such as the presence and types of surrounding facilities. This data was used as explanatory variables to analyze the relation to traffic accidents reported over a period of three years. Presence of traffic signals, pedestrian infrastructure and traffic flow was used as control variable. The results of the analysis suggest that traffic accidents are less likely to occur at intersections where parks are nearby. More accidents occur at medium and small intersections where facilities such as restaurants, supermarkets and convenience stores are nearby. We discuss that the results suggest that visibility but also attention when “briefly hopping into a store” as well as general business of junctions are determinants of accident risks. These results highlight that to reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents at intersections a broader understanding of who passes the junction at what times and the wider land-use characteristics of the vicinity is important.

在日本，一半以上的交通事故发生在十字路口或附近，许多事故发生在只有小路交叉的小十字路口。使用开放街道地图数据创建了日本京都建成区所有十字路口的数据库，包括周围设施的存在和类型等空间特征。这些数据被用作解释变量来分析三年期间报告的交通事故的关系。交通信号、行人基础设施和交通流量作为控制变量。分析结果表明，在公园附近的十字路口发生交通事故的可能性较小。在饭店、超市、便利店等设施附近的中小型十字路口，交通事故较多。我们讨论的结果表明，当“短暂地进入商店”以及路口的一般业务时，能见度和注意力是事故风险的决定因素。这些结果强调，为了减少十字路口交通事故的发生，更广泛地了解谁在什么时间通过路口以及附近更广泛的土地利用特征是重要的。

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引用次数: 0

SHAP-based convolutional neural network modeling for intersection crash severity on Thailand's highways 基于shap的泰国高速公路交叉口碰撞严重程度卷积神经网络建模

IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION

IATSS Research

Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.12.003

Jirapon Sunkpho , Chamroeun Se , Warit Wipulanusat , Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha

Intersection-related crashes on Thailand's highways pose a significant risk to road users, particularly motorcyclists. This study develops customized Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models to classify the severity of intersection crashes and utilizes SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret the models. The methodology involves using three years of crash data from Thailand's highways, covering the period from 2018 to 2020. Additionally, three CNN model variations were developed: a basic CNN, a CNN with dropout (CNN-D), and a CNN with both dropout and L2 regularization (CNN-DR). The results demonstrate the superior performance of the CNN-DR model in classifying crash severity for both motorcycle-related and nonmotorcycle-related intersection crashes. SHAP analysis reveals key factors influencing crash severity, including the year of the crash, with a clear distinction between pre-COVID-19 years (2018–2019) and the pandemic year (2020). Crash mechanisms, such as impacts with vehicles from adjacent approaches and rear-end collisions, are significant factors that increase the likelihood of serious crashes. The study also identifies the type of intersection, specifically curved intersections, T-intersections, and Y-intersections, as major determinants of crash severity, particularly for motorcycle-related crashes. Time-of-day analysis reveals early morning hours (00:00 to 5:59) as high-risk periods for nonmotorcycle-related crashes. Furthermore, the influence of highway types and vehicle involvement, such as regional secondary highways and the presence of trucks, is linked to the increased severity of motorcycle-related crashes. The insights derived from this study can guide road safety managers in implementing targeted interventions to reduce intersection crash severity on Thailand's highways.

泰国高速公路上与十字路口有关的撞车事故对道路使用者，特别是摩托车手构成了重大风险。本研究开发了定制的卷积神经网络（CNN）模型来对交叉口碰撞的严重程度进行分类，并利用SHapley加性解释（SHAP）来解释模型。该方法使用了泰国高速公路三年的碰撞数据，涵盖了2018年至2020年的时间。此外，还开发了三种CNN模型变体：基本CNN、带dropout的CNN （CNN- d）和同时带dropout和L2正则化的CNN （CNN- dr）。结果表明，CNN-DR模型在摩托车相关和非摩托车相关的交叉路口碰撞严重程度分类方面都具有优异的性能。SHAP分析揭示了影响碰撞严重程度的关键因素，包括碰撞年份，并明确区分了2019冠状病毒病前年份（2018-2019年）和大流行年份（2020年）。碰撞机制，如与相邻车辆的碰撞和追尾碰撞，是增加严重碰撞可能性的重要因素。该研究还确定了十字路口的类型，特别是弯曲的十字路口，t型十字路口和y型十字路口，是碰撞严重程度的主要决定因素，特别是与摩托车有关的碰撞。时间分析显示，清晨时段（00:00至5:59）是非摩托车相关事故的高风险时段。此外，公路类型和车辆参与的影响，如区域二级公路和卡车的存在，与与摩托车有关的撞车事故的严重性增加有关。从本研究中得出的见解可以指导道路安全管理人员实施有针对性的干预措施，以减少泰国高速公路上的交叉路口碰撞严重程度。

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引用次数: 0