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Exploring the impact of design elements on wrong-way driving incidents at partial cloverleaf interchange terminals 探究部分苜蓿叶互通式立交终点站设计要素对错车事故的影响
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.11.001
Qing Chang , Yukun Song , Md Mahmud Hossain , Huaguo Zhou
The complex geometric layout of partial cloverleaf (parclo) interchanges elevates the chances of drivers inadvertently choosing the incorrect ramp or direction. Previous research on wrong-way driving (WWD) has emphasized the frequent incidents at the off-ramp terminals of parclo interchanges. Many WWD incidents that did not result in a collision haven't received enough attention from researchers. Geometric features such as ramp design, signage placement, and interchange layout significantly influence driver behavior and decision-making. In this study, a comparative analysis was conducted to explore the correlation between geometric design elements and their impact on WWD incidents at parclo interchange terminals. Over 5000 h of video footage were meticulously reviewed to document instances of WWD at 75 parclo interchange terminals across 13 states. Multiple correspondence analysis was applied to explore the characteristics of the locations with recurring WWD incidents. The results revealed numerous associations among design elements that contributed to the increased risk of WWD incidents, including uncontrolled ramp terminal intersections without street lighting on a two-lane crossroad, poor pavement marking on a wide median between the on- and off-ramps, and so on. The outcomes of this study can be helpful in identifying and improving the critical geometric design criteria in parclo interchanges to minimize WWD incidents.
部分苜蓿叶(parclo)互通式立交复杂的几何布局增加了驾驶员无意中选择错误匝道或方向的几率。以往关于错向驾驶(WWD)的研究强调,在 parclo 交汇处的下行匝道终端经常发生事故。而许多未导致碰撞的 WWD 事故却未引起研究人员的足够重视。匝道设计、标志设置和互通式立交布局等几何特征对驾驶员的行为和决策有很大影响。在本研究中,我们进行了一项比较分析,以探讨几何设计元素之间的相关性及其对 Parclo 立交终点站 WWD 事故的影响。研究人员仔细查看了超过 5000 小时的视频录像,记录了 13 个州 75 个 Parclo 立交终点站发生的 WWD 事件。我们采用多重对应分析法来探讨经常发生 WWD 事件的地点的特征。结果发现,导致 WWD 事故风险增加的设计元素之间存在许多关联,包括双车道十字路口上没有街道照明的失控匝道终端交叉口、上下匝道之间宽阔中间带的路面标记不佳等。这项研究的结果有助于确定和改进准十字交叉路口的关键几何设计标准,以尽量减少 WWD 事故。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing public a priori acceptance of fully automated vehicles using an extended technology acceptance model and importance-performance analysis 利用扩展技术接受度模型和重要性-绩效分析评估公众对全自动驾驶汽车的先验接受度
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.10.004
Sina Rejali , Kayvan Aghabayk , Nirajan Shiwakoti
Fully automated vehicles (FAVs) are anticipated to enter the passenger vehicle market soon. Given the uncertainties surrounding user adoption of this emerging technology, research is needed to understand their user acceptance. While most studies on the acceptance of automated vehicles have been conducted in upper-middle-income or high-income developed countries, similar research in middle-income countries is limited. This study aims to evaluate a priori acceptance of FAVs in a middle-income developing country by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). Trust, subjective norms, perceived safety risk and four decision-making styles (Thoroughness, Hesitancy, Social resistance, and Perfectionism) were included in the extended model. This study aims to evaluate a priori acceptance of FAVs in a middle-income developing country by extending the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). Trust, subjective norms, perceived safety risk and four decision-making styles (Thoroughness, Hesitancy, Social resistance, and Perfectionism) were included in the extended model. Structural Equation Modeling was applied to confirm model validation by using data from 1026 drivers from different cities in Iran. A multi-group analysis was conducted to assess whether the relationships between model constructs vary across different demographic and background groups. Additionally, an importance-performance analysis was performed to gain a deeper understanding of the factors influencing behavioral intention. The findings of the model highlighted that beyond the original TAM scales, subjective norms were the strongest predictor in explaining drivers' intentions to use FAVs. Initial trust also moderately contributed to explaining user acceptance of FAVs. The results also revealed that among decision-making styles, thoroughness positively affected behavioral intention through trust, while social resistance had an indirect negative effect on intention. The findings showed that effect of the perceived safety risk on behavioral intention through the initial trust was confirmed; however, importance-performance map analysis revealed that a significant improvement was observed in the safety area that could still be obtained. It is suggested that policymakers start promoting the usefulness and ease of use of FAVs through advertisements, social media, public campaigns and autonomous vehicle test ride events to facilitate the adoption of FAVs when available in countries with similar sociocultural contexts.
全自动驾驶汽车(FAV)预计将很快进入乘用车市场。鉴于用户采用这一新兴技术的不确定性,需要开展研究以了解用户对其的接受程度。大多数关于自动驾驶汽车接受度的研究都是在中上收入或高收入发达国家进行的,而在中等收入国家进行的类似研究却很有限。本研究旨在通过扩展技术接受模型(TAM),评估中等收入发展中国家对自动驾驶汽车的先验接受度。信任、主观规范、感知安全风险和四种决策风格(彻底性、犹豫不决、社会抵制和完美主义)被纳入扩展模型。本研究旨在通过对技术接受模型(TAM)进行扩展,评估中等收入发展中国家对固定电话和自动交换机的先验接受程度。信任、主观规范、感知安全风险和四种决策风格(彻底性、犹豫不决、社会抵制和完美主义)被纳入扩展模型。利用来自伊朗不同城市的 1026 名驾驶员的数据,采用结构方程模型对模型进行了验证。为了评估模型结构之间的关系在不同人口和背景群体中是否存在差异,我们进行了多群体分析。此外,还进行了重要性表现分析,以深入了解影响行为意向的因素。该模型的研究结果表明,除了原有的 TAM 量表外,主观规范是解释司机使用 FAV 意图的最强预测因素。初始信任也在一定程度上解释了用户对 FAV 的接受程度。结果还显示,在决策风格中,彻底性通过信任对行为意向产生积极影响,而社会阻力则对意向产生间接的负面影响。研究结果表明,感知到的安全风险通过最初的信任对行为意向的影响得到了证实;然而,重要性-绩效图分析表明,在安全领域仍然可以观察到显著的改善。建议政策制定者开始通过广告、社交媒体、公共活动和自动驾驶汽车试乘活动来宣传自动驾驶汽车的实用性和易用性,以促进自动驾驶汽车在具有类似社会文化背景的国家得到采用。
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引用次数: 0
Improving urban intersection safety insights from simulation analysis 模拟分析对改善城市交叉口安全的启示
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.10.005
Chaiwat Yaibok , Piyapong Suwanno , Thaksakorn Pornbunyanon , Chollada Kanjanakul , Paramet Luathep , Atsushi Fukuda
This research explores enhancing intersection safety, a critical aspect of urban traffic management, by analyzing the effects of infrastructure modifications and understanding driver behavior. Centered on a critical junction near Sichon Municipality, the study evaluates three proposed redesign scenarios using the VISSIM simulation tool and the Safety Surrogate Assessment Model (SSAM). These scenarios include the implementation of a roundabout with guidance feature (Model 2), the introduction of a dumbbell-shaped roundabout (Model 3), and the construction of a roundabout without turning points (Model 4). Findings suggest that Models 2 and 4, which incorporate roundabouts, can reduce conflict points, potentially decreasing traffic collisions. However, these models also indicate possible increases in travel times and queue lengths, highlighting the trade-offs between enhancing safety and maintaining traffic efficiency. An in-depth analysis of Deltas (ΔS) values through Optimized Hot Spot Analysis reveals areas with high and low collision severity, providing direction for targeted safety measures. The study demonstrates the complex effects of intersection redesigns on safety and traffic flow. For instance, Model 3 shows increased conflict points, emphasizing the need for specific design considerations to counteract potential negative impacts. Conversely, Model 4 achieves streamlined traffic flow but necessitates careful design to prevent new safety risks. This research underscores the need for a comprehensive approach to intersection safety that combines infrastructure improvements with insights into driver behavior. By utilizing advanced simulation tools and analyzing driving behavior, the study contributes valuable insights towards designing and assessing traffic safety interventions, aiming for safer and more efficient urban traffic environments.
本研究通过分析基础设施改造的效果和了解驾驶员的行为,探讨如何提高交叉口的安全性,这是城市交通管理的一个重要方面。该研究以锡川市附近的一个重要交叉口为中心,使用 VISSIM 仿真工具和安全替代评估模型 (SSAM) 评估了三种拟议的重新设计方案。这些方案包括实施带引导功能的环形交叉路口(模型 2)、引入哑铃形环形交叉路口(模型 3)和建造不带转弯点的环形交叉路口(模型 4)。研究结果表明,模型 2 和模型 4(包含环岛)可以减少冲突点,从而有可能减少交通碰撞。然而,这些模型也表明,行车时间和车龙长度可能会增加,这突出表明了在加强安全和保持交通效率之间的权衡。通过优化热点分析对 Deltas (ΔS)值进行深入分析,揭示了碰撞严重程度高和低的区域,为有针对性的安全措施提供了方向。研究显示了交叉口重新设计对安全和交通流量的复杂影响。例如,模型 3 显示冲突点增多,强调需要考虑具体的设计因素,以抵消潜在的负面影响。相反,模型 4 实现了交通流的简化,但需要精心设计以防止出现新的安全风险。这项研究强调了采用综合方法解决交叉口安全问题的必要性,这种方法应将基础设施的改善与对驾驶员行为的深入了解结合起来。通过利用先进的模拟工具和分析驾驶行为,该研究为设计和评估交通安全干预措施提供了有价值的见解,旨在打造更安全、更高效的城市交通环境。
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引用次数: 0
History and social impact of IATSS research projects 机构间工作队研究项目的历史和社会影响
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.10.003
Shunsuke Kamijo
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引用次数: 0
Factors associated with speeding behavior of Moroccan drivers: Study guided by the theory of planned behavior 摩洛哥司机超速行为的相关因素:以计划行为理论为指导的研究
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.09.003
Abderrahim El Hafidy , Taoufik Rachad , Ali Idri
This study investigates the determinants that influence drivers to exceed speed limits by using an extended version of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Therefore, data about 254 drivers representing various cities in Morocco were collected via a web-based questionnaire. Then, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to validate the proposed questionnaire, while structural equation modeling (SEM) was conducted to analyze and validate the hypothesized model. The results suggest that the extended TPB, incorporating additional factors of habit, moral norms and descriptive norms, outperforms the original TPB. Moreover, the findings underscore that speeding behavior is directly influenced by both speeding intention and habit, and indirectly influenced by moral norms and habit through the mediation of intention. The result of this study will contribute to developing new behavior change interventions aiming at combating speeding behavior and also contributing to ongoing efforts aiming at promoting road safety.
本研究采用扩展版的计划行为理论(TPB),调查影响司机超速的决定因素。因此,我们通过网络问卷收集了代表摩洛哥不同城市的 254 名驾驶员的数据。然后,采用确证因子分析(CFA)验证了所提出的问卷,并通过结构方程模型(SEM)分析和验证了假设模型。结果表明,包含习惯、道德规范和描述性规范等额外因素的扩展 TPB 优于原始 TPB。此外,研究结果还强调,超速行为受超速意向和习惯的直接影响,并通过意向的中介作用受道德规范和习惯的间接影响。本研究的结果将有助于开发旨在打击超速行为的新的行为改变干预措施,同时也有助于促进道路安全的持续努力。
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引用次数: 0
Is a Driver's history of drunk driving and other traffic offenses linked to subsequent drunk driving and traffic crashes? A case study of Taiwan. 驾驶员的酒后驾驶和其他交通违法史是否与随后的酒后驾驶和交通事故有关?台湾案例研究。
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.09.004
Kun-Feng (Ken) Wu, Yu-Jun Chen
Crashes involving alcohol-impaired driving or driving under influence (DUI) are more likely to increase crash probability and severity. Many countries have adopted increasingly stringent policies in curbing DUI. Nevertheless, more and more studies show that while the total number of DUIs has reduced as a whole, DUI recidivism remains challenging. As such, this study seeks to research into whether it is possible to identify frequent DUI recidivists based on their traffic offense history, so that effective countermeasure could be put in place and in time. This study proposes using the drivers' traffic offense history and length of duration between two DUIs, the duration of re-offending, to identify frequent DUI recidivists. This approach is not only widely adopted in public health, but is also flexible in accommodating many modeling issues such as data censoring, recurrent events, and the inclusion of time-varying covariates to address questions like whether the probability of recidivism increases or decreases with subsequent DUI offenses or other traffic offenses or violations. Our major results show that: (1) For all drivers caught for a DUI, 10 % of them would be caught for another DUI within a year; (2) In contrast, the same one-year recidivism probability for those who accumulated two DUIs and two run-the-red-light could be as high as 17 %; (3) Each subsequent DUI increased the probability of a further DUI offense by 57 %; and (4) Each additional DUI offense was associated with 45 % increase in probability of being involved in a crash involving DUI. Overall, there are clear links between a driver's history of traffic offenses, DUI recidivism, and crash involvement, which could provide valuable information for authorities to profile potential recidivists and apply preventative measures in advance to reduce DUI-related crashes.
涉及酒后驾驶或受影响驾驶(DUI)的撞车事故更有可能增加撞车概率和严重程度。许多国家在遏制酒后驾车方面采取了越来越严格的政策。然而,越来越多的研究表明,虽然酒后驾车的总数总体上有所减少,但酒后驾车的累犯率仍然很高。因此,本研究试图探讨是否有可能根据交通违法记录识别出经常酒驾的惯犯,以便及时采取有效的应对措施。本研究建议利用驾驶员的交通违法记录和两次酒驾之间的持续时间(即再犯时间)来识别酒驾惯犯。这种方法不仅在公共卫生领域被广泛采用,而且还能灵活地解决许多建模问题,如数据删减、重复事件以及纳入随时间变化的协变量等,以解决诸如再犯概率是随后续酒驾违法行为还是其他交通违法行为或违规行为的增加或减少而增加或减少等问题。我们的主要结果显示(1)对于所有因酒驾而被抓获的司机来说,10%的人会在一年内再次因酒驾而被抓获;(2)相比之下,对于那些累计两次酒驾和两次闯红灯的司机来说,同样的一年内再犯概率可高达 17%;(3)随后的每次酒驾都会使再次酒驾的概率增加 57%;(4)每次额外的酒驾都会使涉及酒驾的交通事故概率增加 45%。总之,驾驶员的交通违法史、酒驾累犯和涉及车祸之间存在明显的联系,这可以为当局提供宝贵的信息,以便对潜在的累犯进行剖析,并提前采取预防措施,减少与酒驾有关的车祸。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the driving skills-attitudes nexus for safer roads 调查驾驶技能与态度之间的关系,促进道路安全
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.10.001
Mahsa Bayat , Kayvan Aghabayk , Nirajan Shiwakoti
While current research extensively delves into the importance of driving skills and attitudes concerning traffic safety, a conspicuous gap remains in substantiating a meaningful correlation between self-reported driving skills and attitudes toward traffic safety. This underscores the need for more in-depth investigation and empirical evidence to better elucidate the nature of the relationship between self-perceived driving skills and attitudes in the context of traffic safety. This study investigates the relationship between drivers' skills and their attitudes toward traffic safety. Data from 664 drivers were collected through self-report questionnaires covering driving skills, attitudes, and demographic information. Factor analysis revealed three distinct factors for both driving skills (perceptual-motor skills, safety skills, and decisional skills) and driving attitudes (attitudes toward rule violations and speeding, attitudes toward careless driving of others, and attitudes toward drinking and driving). Structural equation models unveiled a significant connection between drivers' attitudes and safety skills, as well as decisional skills. Improved safety skills correlated with less favorable attitudes toward rule violations, speeding, careless driving of others, and drinking and driving. Similarly, enhanced decisional skills were associated with a rise in attitudes toward rule violations, speeding, and disregarding careless driving of others. Demographic analysis indicated an inverse correlation between age and attitude factors/decisional skills, coupled with a positive correlation with safety skills. Older individuals had less favorable attitudes toward rule violation, speeding, careless driving of others, the combination of drinking and driving, and their decisional skills were lower. Gender analysis revealed that men had a lower favorable viewpoint toward all three attitude dimensions and reported higher perceptual-motor and decisional skills compared to safety skills. The findings underscore the significance of safety and decisional skills in shaping attitudes toward traffic safety. Demographic factors, particularly age and gender, play a role in influencing these skills and attitudes, offering valuable insights for interventions and policy considerations.
尽管目前的研究广泛深入地探讨了驾驶技能和交通安全态度的重要性,但在证实自我感觉的驾驶技能与交通安全态度之间有意义的相关性方面仍存在明显差距。因此,有必要进行更深入的调查和实证研究,以更好地阐明自我感觉的驾驶技能与交通安全态度之间关系的本质。本研究调查了驾驶员的驾驶技能与他们对交通安全的态度之间的关系。通过自我报告问卷收集了 664 名驾驶员的数据,内容包括驾驶技能、态度和人口统计信息。因子分析显示,驾驶技能(感知-运动技能、安全技能和决策技能)和驾驶态度(对违章和超速的态度、对他人不小心驾驶的态度和对酒后驾驶的态度)都有三个不同的因子。结构方程模型揭示了驾驶者的态度与安全技能和决策技能之间的重要联系。安全技能的提高与对违规、超速、不小心驾驶他人和酒后驾驶的态度相关。同样,决策技能的提高也与对违反规则、超速和不顾他人安全驾驶的态度上升有关。人口统计学分析表明,年龄与态度因素/决策技能呈反向关系,与安全技能呈正向关系。年龄越大的人对违反规则、超速行驶、不顾他人安全驾驶、酒后驾驶的态度越差,他们的决策能力也越低。性别分析表明,与安全技能相比,男性对所有三个态度维度的好感度都较低,并报告了较高的感知运动技能和决策技能。这些发现强调了安全和决策技能在形成交通安全态度方面的重要性。人口因素,尤其是年龄和性别,在影响这些技能和态度方面发挥着作用,为干预措施和政策考虑提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Toward zero traffic deaths and disabilities with active and passive safety technologies in the association of southeast Asian nations 东南亚国家联盟利用主动和被动安全技术实现交通零死亡和零残疾
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.09.002
Husam Muslim, Marko Medojevic, Sandra Watanabe, Hisashi Imanaga, Nobuyuki Uchida, Sou Kitajima, Genya Abe
Road traffic crashes caused more than 108,000 deaths and 6,200,000 injuries resulting in 7.7 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2019. This study estimates that 59 % of these casualties could have been avoided if all vehicles were designed to provide crash protection equivalent to that of the best vehicle safety design in their class and all road users adhered to safety best practices. Results of comparative risk assessments indicate that the application of safety technologies that are considered high priority by the United Nations (anti-lock braking, electronic stability control, occupant restraints, frontal and side airbags, crashworthiness, side-door beam, side structure and padding, and helmets) can save 34,373 lives and avert 2.5 million DALYs annually in ASEAN. While implementing Autonomous emergency braking and lane keeping assistance systems would provide additional reductions estimated at 13,077 fewer deaths and 1,021,220 fewer DALYs, speed-limitation systems would have a larger additional benefit, estimated at 21,394 lives saved and 1,382,530 fewer DALYs. The investigated technologies can be among the best approaches toward zero traffic deaths and can elevate public health burdens in low and middle-income countries.
2019 年,道路交通事故在东南亚国家联盟 (ASEAN) 造成超过 108,000 人死亡,6,200,000 人受伤,导致 770 万残疾调整生命年 (DALY) 损失。本研究估计,如果所有车辆在设计上都能提供相当于同类最佳车辆安全设计的碰撞保护,并且所有道路使用者都能遵守安全最佳实践,那么这些伤亡中的 59% 是可以避免的。比较风险评估的结果表明,在东盟应用被联合国视为高度优先的安全技术(防抱死制动、电子稳定性控制、乘员约束装置、正面和侧面安全气囊、耐撞性、侧门横梁、侧面结构和衬垫以及头盔),每年可挽救 34 373 人的生命,避免 250 万残疾调整寿命年。虽然实施自主紧急制动和车道保持辅助系统可额外减少约 13,077 人的死亡和 1,021,220 人的残疾调整寿命年数,但限速系统的额外效益更大,估计可挽救 21,394 人的生命和减少 1,382,530 人的残疾调整寿命年数。所调查的技术可以成为实现零交通事故死亡的最佳方法之一,并能减轻中低收入国家的公共卫生负担。
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引用次数: 0
Impact analysis of street space quality on pedestrian behavior using mobile probe data 利用移动探针数据分析街道空间质量对行人行为的影响
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.08.002
Nagahiro Yoshida , Tomohito Nakai
Pedestrian-centered streets are being developed to enhance the attractiveness of cities by creating comfortable and walkable spaces. Recent advancements in information and communication technology have allowed for the analysis of the relationship between street spaces and pedestrian behavior using mobile probe data (MPD). This study examined the characteristics of pedestrian behavior around major railway stations using MPD and assessed the impact of street space quality on pedestrian presence and traffic volume. This study utilized the integration value of the Space Syntax theory to measure the street walkability and the size of retail facilities to determine street attractiveness. The results suggested that street space quality played a conditional role in attracting pedestrians and increasing the traffic volume between stations and commercial areas. This analysis method is effective for identifying the streets where the street space between origins and destinations is underestimated in relation to traffic volume. This can facilitate efforts to convert streets into pedestrian-friendly spaces, thereby enhancing walkability.
目前正在开发以行人为中心的街道,通过创造舒适的步行空间来提高城市的吸引力。信息和通信技术的最新发展使得利用移动探针数据(MPD)分析街道空间与行人行为之间的关系成为可能。 本研究利用移动探针数据分析了主要火车站周围的行人行为特征,并评估了街道空间质量对行人存在和交通流量的影响。本研究利用空间句法理论的整合值来衡量街道的可步行性,并利用零售设施的规模来确定街道的吸引力。结果表明,街道空间质量在吸引行人和增加车站与商业区之间的交通流量方面发挥了条件性作用。这种分析方法可以有效地识别出起点和终点之间的街道空间相对于交通流量被低估的街道。这有助于将街道改造成行人友好型空间,从而提高步行能力。
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引用次数: 0
Tree-based approaches to understanding factors influencing crash severity across roadway classes: A Thailand case study 基于树状结构的方法来了解影响不同等级道路碰撞严重程度的因素:泰国案例研究
IF 3.2 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.iatssr.2024.09.001
Thanapong Champahom , Chamroeun Se , Fareeda Watcharamaisakul , Sajjakaj Jomnonkwao , Ampol Karoonsoontawong , Vatanavongs Ratanavaraha
Existing studies often overlook the nuanced differences between various road classifications and their respective crash dynamics, hindering the development of targeted interventions to mitigate crash severity. To address this gap, this study investigates factors influencing the likelihood of fatality in road crashes across highways, collector roads, and local roads in Thailand using crash data from 2015 to 2021. Highways connect regions with high-speed traffic and large volumes, collector roads link smaller communities with lower traffic density but allow higher speeds, and local roads primarily pass through villages, with narrow pathways, two traffic lanes, and frequent motorcycle use. The study employs machine learning methodologies utilizing tree-based algorithms, including Decision Trees, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, AdaBoost, Extra Trees, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost. The XGBoost model delivered superior performance for highways, while Gradient Boosting slightly outperformed XGBoost for local and collector roads. Both models consistently achieved a test accuracy of 0.70, with precision between 0.66 and 0.67, recall ranging from 0.59 to 0.61, and F1-scores from 0.58 to 0.61. The AUC values also consistently ranged from 0.59 to 0.61. SHAP values reveal key factors influencing fatality risk across road types, including speeding, gender disparities, driving under the influence of alcohol, inadequate lighting, and elderly drivers. Specific concerns include reversing on highways, collisions in poorly lit areas on collector roads, and helmet non-use on local roads. The findings support policy recommendations to address speeding, target male and older drivers, prevent reversing incidents, enhance lighting, and promote helmet use. This research deepens our understanding of factors affecting road crash severity and offers valuable insights for improving road safety across various environments.
现有研究往往忽视了各种道路分类之间的细微差别及其各自的碰撞动态,从而阻碍了制定有针对性的干预措施来减轻碰撞的严重程度。为弥补这一不足,本研究利用 2015 年至 2021 年的碰撞数据,调查了影响泰国高速公路、集散道路和地方道路碰撞致死可能性的因素。高速公路连接交通流量大、车速快的地区,集散道路连接交通密度较低但车速较高的小型社区,而地方道路主要穿过村庄,道路狭窄,只有两条车道,摩托车使用频繁。这项研究采用了机器学习方法,利用基于树的算法,包括决策树、随机森林、梯度提升、AdaBoost、Extra Trees、XGBoost、LightGBM 和 CatBoost。XGBoost 模型在高速公路上表现出色,而梯度提升模型在地方道路和集散道路上的表现略优于 XGBoost。两种模型的测试准确度均达到了 0.70,精确度介于 0.66 和 0.67 之间,召回率介于 0.59 和 0.61 之间,F1 分数介于 0.58 和 0.61 之间。AUC值也始终在0.59到0.61之间。SHAP 值揭示了影响各类道路死亡风险的关键因素,包括超速、性别差异、酒后驾驶、照明不足和老年驾驶员。具体问题包括在高速公路上倒车、在集散道路照明不足的区域发生碰撞,以及在地方道路上不使用头盔。研究结果支持针对超速、男性和老年驾驶者、倒车事故预防、加强照明和推广头盔使用的政策建议。这项研究加深了我们对影响道路交通事故严重程度的因素的理解,并为改善各种环境下的道路安全提供了宝贵的见解。
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