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Making the Best of the Second-Best: Welfare Consequences of Time-Varying Electricity Prices 在次优中求最佳:时变电价对福利的影响
IF 3.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-25 DOI: 10.1086/720566
Joshua A. Blonz
In electricity markets, the price paid by retail customers during periods of peak demand is far below the cost of supply. This leads to overconsumption during peak periods, requiring the construction of excess generation capacity compared to first-best prices that adjust at short time intervals to reflect changing marginal cost. This paper investigates the response of infrequently studied small commercial and industrial establishments to a four-hour increase in retail electricity prices invoked by individual utilities during peak demand periods 15 times per year. This policy intends to reduce electricity consumption when generation costs are highest. I find that the approximately tripled prices reduce establishment peak electricity usage by 13.5%. Using a model of capacity investment decisions, I find that the program delivers 44% of the benefits of the first-best policy of continuously varying prices and suggest two simple improvements in program design that could nearly double these welfare gains.
在电力市场中,零售客户在需求高峰期支付的价格远低于供应成本。这导致了高峰期的过度消费,与在短时间内调整以反映不断变化的边际成本的第一好价格相比,需要建设过剩的发电能力。本文调查了很少被研究的小型商业和工业机构对个别公用事业公司在每年15次的需求高峰期间零售电价上涨4小时的反应。这项政策旨在降低发电成本最高时的用电量。我发现,大约三倍的价格使企业峰值用电量减少了13.5%。使用容量投资决策模型,我发现该计划提供了连续变化价格的第一个最佳政策的44%的好处,并建议在计划设计中进行两个简单的改进,可以使这些福利收益几乎翻倍。
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引用次数: 18
Ecosystem Services and Land Rental Markets: Producer Costs of Bat Population Crashes 生态系统服务和土地租赁市场:蝙蝠种群崩溃的生产者成本
IF 3.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-08 DOI: 10.1086/720303
D. Manning, Amy W. Ando
Nonmarket natural capital provides crucial inputs across the economy. We use land rental market data to calculate the welfare impacts of a change in an unpriced natural capital while accounting for spatial spillovers. We apply the welfare analysis to examine the cost of white-nose syndrome (WNS) in bats, which provide pest control services to agricultural producers. WNS, a disease that decimates bat populations, arrived in the United States in the mid-2000s. Leveraging the exogenous change in bat populations, we find that the loss of bats in a county causes land rental rates to fall by $2.84 per acre plus $1.50 per acre per neighboring county with WNS. Agricultural land falls by 1,102 acres plus 582 acres per neighboring county with WNS. As of 2017, agricultural losses from WNS were between $426 and $495 million per year. These estimates of ecosystem service values can inform public management of society’s natural capital.
非市场自然资本为整个经济提供了至关重要的投入。我们使用土地租赁市场数据来计算未定价自然资本变化对福利的影响,同时考虑空间溢出。我们应用福利分析来检验蝙蝠白鼻综合征(WNS)的成本,蝙蝠为农业生产者提供害虫防治服务。WNS是一种导致蝙蝠数量锐减的疾病,于2000年代中期传入美国。利用蝙蝠种群的外生变化,我们发现一个县蝙蝠的减少导致土地租赁率每英亩下降2.84美元,加上WNS的每个邻近县每英亩下降1.50美元。农业用地减少了1102英亩,加上与WNS相邻的每个县582英亩。截至2017年,WNS每年的农业损失在4.26亿至4.95亿美元之间。这些对生态系统服务价值的估计可以为社会自然资本的公共管理提供信息。
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引用次数: 2
The Creation of Social Norms under Weak Institutions 弱势制度下的社会规范创造
IF 3.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-04-08 DOI: 10.1086/720287
F. Diekert, Tillmann Eymess, J. Luomba, Israel Waichman
Formal regulations often fail to ensure sustainable management of natural resources. An alternative approach could rely on the interaction of norm-based interventions and social sanctions. Our lab-in-the-field experiment with fishermen at Lake Victoria studies how a norm-based intervention, namely, social information about high or low levels of previous cooperation, affects behavior and beliefs in a prisoner’s dilemma game with or without weak social sanctioning. Providing different social information succeeds in creating different norms of cooperation, but only if sanctioning is possible: cooperation rates start at a high level and stay at a high level when social information emphasizes cooperation but start at a low level and stay at a low level when social information emphasizes defection. Without social sanctioning, cooperation rates decline, irrespective of the social information. Particularly participants with close connection to others in their experimental session conform to the behavior that is emphasized by the social information message under sanctioning.
正式的法规往往无法确保对自然资源的可持续管理。另一种方法可以依靠基于规范的干预和社会制裁的相互作用。我们的实验室在维多利亚湖对渔民进行的实地实验研究了基于规范的干预,即关于先前合作的高或低水平的社会信息,如何在有或没有弱社会制裁的情况下影响囚犯困境游戏中的行为和信念。提供不同的社会信息成功地创造了不同的合作规范,但前提是制裁是可能的:当社会信息强调合作时,合作率从高水平开始并保持在高水平,但当社会信息重视叛逃时,合作比率从低水平开始并维持在低水平。如果没有社会制裁,无论社会信息如何,合作率都会下降。特别是在实验环节中与他人关系密切的参与者,符合制裁下社会信息信息所强调的行为。
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引用次数: 2
Noah’s Ark in a Warming World: Climate Change, Biodiversity Loss, and Public Adaptation Costs in the United States 《变暖世界中的诺亚方舟:气候变化、生物多样性丧失和美国公众适应成本》
IF 3.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-02-08 DOI: 10.1086/716662
F. Moore, A. Stokes, M. Conte, Xiaoliang Dong
Climate change poses a growing threat to biodiversity, but the welfare consequences of these changes are not well understood. Here we analyze data on the US Endangered Species Act and project increases in species listing and spending due to climate change. We show that higher endangerment is strongly associated with the probability of listing but also find a large bias toward vertebrate species for both listing and spending. Unmitigated warming would cause the listing of an additional 690 species and committed spending of $21 billion by 2100. Several thousand more species would be critically imperiled by climate change but remain unlisted. Finally, we compare ESA spending with estimates of willingness to pay for conservation of 36 listed species. Aggregate WTP is larger than ESA spending for the vast majority of species even using conservative assumptions and typically one to two orders of magnitude larger than direct ESA spending using less restrictive assumptions.
气候变化对生物多样性构成了日益严重的威胁,但这些变化对人类福祉的影响还没有得到很好的理解。在这里,我们分析了美国濒危物种法案的数据,并项目了由于气候变化而增加的物种清单和支出。我们发现,更高的濒危程度与上市的可能性密切相关,但也发现脊椎动物物种在上市和消费方面都有很大的倾向性。如果气候变暖没有得到缓解,到2100年将导致额外的690个物种被列入名单,并承诺花费210亿美元。还有几千个物种将受到气候变化的严重威胁,但仍未被列入名单。最后,我们比较了欧空局的支出和36个物种的保护意愿。即使使用保守的假设,绝大多数物种的总WTP也大于欧空局的支出,通常比使用限制性较小的假设的欧空局直接支出大一到两个数量级。
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引用次数: 2
Are Residential Energy Efficiency Upgrades Effective? An Empirical Analysis in Southern California 住宅节能升级是否有效?南加州的实证分析
IF 3.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-02-08 DOI: 10.1086/718529
Yating Chuang, M. Delmas, S. Pincetl
We analyze multiple subsidy programs for residential energy efficiency upgrades from 2010 to 2015 using electricity billing records of more than 11 million households in Southern California. We find that adopting these upgrades reduces overall electricity usage by 4%. However, there are significant differences in savings between upgrades. Pool pump and refrigeration upgrades generate the largest savings (13% and 6%, respectively). Lighting and HVAC retrofits generate the smallest savings (less than 1%). Some upgrades lead to concerns of rebound effects, such as dishwasher and clothes washer upgrades, and building envelope upgrades. Program impact varies by time of the year and building type. Furthermore, we find that energy savings are inconsistent with the engineering estimates. These results indicate that policy makers should consider the allocation of program funding not simply based on engineering projections but also based on measured electricity consumption such as those described in this study.
我们利用南加州1100多万户家庭的电费记录,分析了2010年至2015年住宅能效升级的多个补贴项目。我们发现采用这些升级可以减少4%的总用电量。然而,在不同的升级之间,节省的费用有很大的不同。泳池泵和制冷系统的升级带来了最大的节约(分别为13%和6%)。照明和暖通空调改造产生的节省最小(不到1%)。一些升级引起了对回弹效应的担忧,如洗碗机和洗衣机的升级,以及建筑围护结构的升级。项目影响因一年中的不同时间和建筑类型而异。此外,我们发现节能与工程估计不一致。这些结果表明,政策制定者应该考虑项目资金的分配,而不是简单地基于工程预测,还应该基于测量的电力消耗,如本研究中描述的那些。
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引用次数: 3
Supply-Side Reforms to Oil and Gas Production on Federal Lands: Modeling the Implications for CO2 Emissions, Federal Revenues, and Leakage 联邦土地上油气生产的供给侧改革:对二氧化碳排放、联邦收入和泄漏的影响建模
IF 3.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-02-08 DOI: 10.1086/718963
Brian C. Prest
Policy reforms targeting federal oil and gas production are increasingly considered as approaches to reduce CO2 emissions. Yet such policies are controversial, in part due to leakage concerns. I model the effects of three such policies, including carbon adders and a leasing ban. Accounting for leakage, a leasing ban reduces emissions by about one-quarter of the amount originally projected for the Clean Power Plan but reduces royalty revenues by $5 billion annually. Carbon adders reduce emissions less but can raise billions of dollars annually. Charging the same carbon adder for both oil and gas is not revenue-maximizing because gas production is more sensitive to the adder. I estimate revenue-maximizing adders of $40/ton for oil and $5/ton for gas, but higher revenues come at the cost of higher emissions than achieved by charging adders based on the social cost of carbon. These results highlight important policy trade-offs in federal leasing reforms.
针对联邦石油和天然气生产的政策改革越来越被视为减少二氧化碳排放的方法。然而这些政策是有争议的,部分原因是对泄漏的担忧。我对三种此类政策的影响进行了建模,其中包括碳添加器和租赁禁令。考虑到泄漏,租赁禁令减少的排放量约为清洁电力计划最初预计排放量的四分之一,但每年减少50亿美元的特许权使用费收入。碳添加器减少的排放量较少,但每年可以筹集数十亿美元。对油气使用相同的加法器并不能实现收益最大化,因为天然气产量对加法器更为敏感。我估计,为了实现收入最大化,石油附加费为40美元/吨,天然气附加费为5美元/吨,但更高的收入是以更高的排放量为代价的,而不是根据碳的社会成本收取附加费。这些结果突出了联邦租赁改革中重要的政策权衡。
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引用次数: 4
Wallace E. Oates Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation Award 华莱士·e·奥茨杰出博士论文奖
IF 3.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1086/718308
G. Englander
Failures to conserve wildlife do not typically arise from an absence of conservation policies; they occur when existing policies are ineffective. From national laws prohibiting the killing of African elephants to international agreements governing the exploitation of marine animals, behavioral responses and enforcement capacity shape the extent to which conservation policies improve or worsen conservation outcomes. Causal estimates of the effects of conservation policies and their underlying mechanisms are largely unavailable, limiting the extent to which declines in wildlife abundance and biodiversity can be reduced and reversed. In the three chapters ofmy dissertation, I use causal inference econometrics, high-resolution data, and economic theory to begin to fill this knowledge gap. First, when regulators in Peru try to protect juvenile fish by temporarily closing specific areas of ocean, they inadvertently provide information about the location of schools of fish, resulting in large spillovers that cause the policy to backfire. Second, Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) protect fisheries from unauthorized fishing, but only in EEZs with fisheries valuable enough to justify enforcement costs. Third, armed conflict near elephant habitat increases elephant poaching. Gabriel Englander is currently a postdoctoral scholar in the Environmental Markets Lab at the University of California, Santa Barbara. In August 2022 he will join the Development Research Group of the World Bank (https://www.gabrielenglander.com/).
保护野生动物的失败通常不是由于缺乏保护政策;当现有政策无效时,就会发生这种情况。从禁止猎杀非洲象的国家法律到管理海洋动物开发的国际协议,行为反应和执法能力决定了保护政策改善或恶化保护结果的程度。对保护政策的影响及其潜在机制的因果估计在很大程度上是无法获得的,这限制了野生动物数量和生物多样性减少的程度。在我论文的三章中,我使用因果推理计量经济学,高分辨率数据和经济理论来开始填补这一知识空白。首先,当秘鲁的监管机构试图通过暂时关闭海洋的特定区域来保护幼鱼时,他们无意中提供了有关鱼群位置的信息,导致大量溢出效应,导致政策适得其反。第二,专属经济区(EEZs)保护渔业不受未经授权的捕捞,但仅限于渔业价值足以证明执法成本合理的专属经济区。第三,大象栖息地附近的武装冲突增加了偷猎大象的行为。加布里埃尔·英格兰德目前是加州大学圣巴巴拉分校环境市场实验室的博士后学者。2022年8月,他将加入世界银行发展研究小组(https://www.gabrielenglander.com/)。
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引用次数: 0
Food versus Fuel? Impacts of the North Dakota Oil Boom on Agricultural Prices 食物还是燃料?北达科他州石油繁荣对农产品价格的影响
IF 3.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1086/716522
J. Bushnell, Jonathan E. Hughes, Aaron Smith
Farmers and politicians in North Dakota and nearby states claim that dramatic increases in shipments of crude oil by rail in 2013–14 caused service delays and higher costs. We investigate these claims, accounting for other potential sources of rail congestion. We show that grain price spreads between the market hub and regional elevators expanded significantly when crude oil shipments increased. However, the incidence of those effects was borne mostly by buyers paying higher prices at the hub rather than farmers receiving lower prices. The effects differ by the type of grain being transported. Wheat markets were affected much more than corn and soybeans, most likely because shipping delays were more costly for wheat than corn and soybeans. When rail capacity is scarce, railroads use railcar auctions to price discriminate over the time sensitivity of a shipment.
北达科他州和附近各州的农民和政界人士声称,2013-14年铁路原油运输量的急剧增加导致了服务延误和成本上升。我们对这些索赔进行了调查,考虑到了铁路拥堵的其他潜在来源。我们发现,当原油运输量增加时,市场中心和区域电梯之间的粮食价格价差显著扩大。然而,这些影响的发生主要是由买家在中心支付更高的价格,而不是农民获得更低的价格。影响因运输的粮食类型而异。小麦市场受到的影响远大于玉米和大豆,很可能是因为小麦的运输延误比玉米和大豆更昂贵。当铁路运力不足时,铁路公司会利用轨道车拍卖来对货物的时间敏感性进行价格歧视。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of Carbon Prices on Renewable Energy Support 碳价格对可再生能源支持的影响
IF 3.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-02 DOI: 10.1086/717417
J. Abrell, Mirjam Kosch
We examine how optimal renewable energy (RE) support policies need to be adjusted to account for carbon prices. We show theoretically and empirically that changing carbon prices requires adjusting RE subsidies due to two motives. First, RE premiums need to be reduced to reflect the carbon value embedded in the market price. Second, once a coal to gas switch occurs, RE premiums and feed-in tariffs need to be adjusted to account for changes in the marginal external benefit of RE. We use empirical estimations and numerical simulation models to quantify these effects for the United Kingdom. We show that the second effect is empirically small, whereas the first effect requires to completely phase-out RE premiums with increasing carbon prices. Finally, a fuel switch increases solar-induced abatement, whereas wind-induced abatement is rather invariant to a fuel switch. Yet, the differentiation of optimal subsidies between wind and solar power is modest.
我们研究了如何调整最优的可再生能源(RE)支持政策以适应碳价格。我们从理论和经验上证明,由于两个动机,改变碳价格需要调整可再生能源补贴。首先,可再生能源的保费需要降低,以反映市场价格中隐含的碳价值。其次,一旦煤改气发生,可再生能源溢价和上网电价需要进行调整,以考虑可再生能源边际外部效益的变化。我们使用经验估计和数值模拟模型来量化这些对英国的影响。我们表明,第二种效应在经验上很小,而第一种效应需要随着碳价格的提高而完全淘汰可再生能源溢价。最后,燃料开关增加了太阳能诱导的减排,而风力诱导的减排对燃料开关是相当不变的。然而,风能和太阳能之间的最佳补贴差别不大。
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引用次数: 1
Correcting Heterogeneous Externalities: Evidence from Local Fuel Taxes 纠正异质外部性:来自地方燃油税的证据
IF 3.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-11-02 DOI: 10.1086/717418
Cody Nehiba
The demand for automobile transportation and the external costs of driving vary widely across locations. However, gasoline taxes, the most common policy tools implemented to correct these externalities, are levied uniformly at the federal and state levels. I examine how a gasoline tax that reflects the heterogeneity in demand and damages can improve efficiency. I estimate county-level travel demand elasticities and congestion damages to compare the efficiency of state gasoline taxes to county-specific fuel taxes. Because elasticities, congestion damages, and pollution damages exhibit heterogeneity across regions, county-specific fuel taxes, largely levied in major metropolitan areas, provide consumer welfare gains between $5 and $30 per capita annually in addition to equity gains relative to revenue-neutral state fuel taxes.
不同地区对汽车运输的需求和驾驶的外部成本差别很大。然而,汽油税是纠正这些外部性的最常用政策工具,在联邦和州一级统一征收。我研究了反映需求和损害异质性的汽油税如何提高效率。我估计了县级旅行需求弹性和拥堵损害,以比较州汽油税和县特定燃油税的效率。由于弹性、拥堵损害和污染损害在不同地区表现出异质性,因此,与收入中性的州燃油税相比,主要在大城市征收的特定县燃油税,除了权益收益之外,每年还为消费者提供5至30美元的人均福利收益。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
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