Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters最新文献_第6页

Global warming intensifies once-in-a-decade extreme precipitation in summer in China 全球变暖加剧了中国十年一遇的夏季极端降水

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100561

Aoqi Zhou , Chaoxia Yuan

The intensification of extreme precipitation (EP) under global warming presents a substantial risk to human safety and societal progress. Studying the specific impacts of global warming on rare EP events in China not only enhances the comprehension of these shifts, but also paves the way for the development of proactive strategies to alleviate associated damages. Results from large-ensemble simulation data demonstrate that global warming has led to an enhancement in once-in-a-decade EP events in parts of western and central China over the past few decades, with the strengthening of the South Asia high (SAH) caused by global warming playing a dominant role. The strengthening of the SAH corresponds to an intensification and westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high in the lower troposphere. The region between these two systems experiences enhanced upward motion and increased southwesterly water vapor transport, leading to a rise in climatological precipitation in western and central China, thereby raising the threshold for once-in-a-decade EP events.

摘要

全球变暖下极端降水（EP）的加剧对人类安全和社会发展构成了重大威胁. 研究全球变暖对中国罕见极端降水事件的影响，不仅能加深大家对这些变化的理解，还为制定应对政策铺平了道路. 大样本模拟数据表明，在过去几十年中，全球变暖加剧了中国西部和中部部分地区十年一遇的极端降水事件，其中因全球变暖而增强的南亚高压（SAH）起到了主导作用. SAH的增强与对流层低层西太副高的增强西伸密切相关. 这两个系统间的区域经历了更强的上升运动和增强的西南水汽输送，导致中国西部和中部的气候态降水增加，从而提高了十年一遇极端降水事件的阈值.

全球变暖背景下极端降水的加剧给人类安全和社会进步带来了重大威胁。研究全球变暖对中国罕见EP事件的具体影响，不仅可以增强对这些变化的理解，而且可以为制定积极的策略来减轻相关损害铺平道路。大集合模拟结果表明，近几十年来，全球变暖导致中国西部和中部部分地区10年一遇的EP事件增加，其中南亚高压（SAH）的增强起主导作用。南亚高压的增强与对流层下层西太平洋副热带高压的增强和向西扩展相对应。这两个系统之间的区域向上运动增强，西南水汽输送增加，导致中国西部和中部气候降水增加，从而提高了十年一遇的EP事件的阈值。中文意思是：“我的意思是，我的意思是，我的意思是，我的意思是，我的意思是。”研究全球变暖对中国罕见极端降水事件的影响，不仅能加深大家对这些变化的理解，还为制定应对政策铺平了道路. 大样本模拟数据表明,在过去几十年中,全球变暖加剧了中国西部和中部部分地区十年一遇的极端降水事件,其中因全球变暖而增强的南亚高压(SAH)起到了主导作用。这句话的意思是：“我的意思是，我的意思是。”这两个系统间的区域经历了更强的上升运动和增强的西南水汽输送，导致中国西部和中部的气候态降水增加，从而提高了十年一遇极端降水事件的阈值.

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of the simulation performance of WRF-Solar for a summer month in China using ground observation network data 利用地面观测网络数据评估 WRF-Solar 在中国夏季某月的模拟性能

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100532

Xin Yue , Xiao Tang , Bo Hu , Keyi Chen , Qizhong Wu , Lei Kong , Huangjian Wu , Zifa Wang , Jiang Zhu

Solar energy is a pivotal clean energy source in the transition to carbon neutrality from fossil fuels. However, the intermittent and stochastic characteristics of solar radiation pose challenges for accurate simulation and prediction. Accurately simulating and predicting solar radiation and its variability are crucial for optimizing solar energy utilization. This study conducted simulation experiments using the WRF-Solar model from 25 June to 25 July 2022, to evaluate the accuracy and performance of the simulated solar radiation across China. The simulations covered the whole country with a grid spacing of 27 km and were compared with ground observation network data from the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network. The results indicated that WRF-Solar can accurately capture the spatiotemporal patterns of global horizontal irradiance over China, but there is still an overestimation of solar radiation, and the model underestimates the total cloud cover. The root-mean-square error ranged from 92.83 to 188.13

W m^{- 2}

and the mean bias (MB) ranged from 21.05 to 56.22

W m^{- 2}

. The simulation showed the smallest MB at Lhasa on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, while the largest MB was observed in Southeast China. To enhance the accuracy of solar radiation simulation, the authors compared the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar with the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for General Circulation Models and found that the former provides better simulation.

摘要

准确模拟和预测太阳辐射及其变化对于优化太阳能利用至关重要. 本研究使用WRF-Solar模式对中国2022 年 6 月 25 日至 7 月 25 日的太阳辐射情况进行了深入模拟, 模式网格水平分辨率为27 km, 通过与中国生态系统研究网络 (CERN) 的地面观测网络数据的37个观测站点进行对比, 以评估模式性能. 结果表明: WRF-Solar模式能较好地捕捉到中国上空的辐照度GHI (Global Horizontal Irradiance) 的时空分布特征, 但存在高估太阳辐射量, 以及低估总云量的情况. 全国的总辐射模拟均方根误差范围为92.83–188.13 W m⁻², 平均偏差范围为21.05–56.22 W m⁻². 青藏高原拉萨站的偏差最小, 在中国东南部的偏差最大. 为了进一步提升太阳辐射模拟的精确度, 本研究还对比了FARMS与RRTMG辐射方案, 发现FARMS方案的模拟精度更高.

太阳能是从化石燃料向碳中和过渡的关键清洁能源。然而，太阳辐射的间歇性和随机性给精确模拟和预测带来了挑战。准确模拟和预测太阳辐射及其变异性是优化太阳能利用的关键。本研究利用WRF-Solar模式于2022年6月25日至7月25日进行了模拟实验，以评估模拟中国各地太阳辐射的准确性和性能。模拟覆盖全国，网格间距为27 km，并与中国生态系统研究网络地面观测数据进行对比。结果表明，WRF-Solar模型能够准确地捕捉中国地区全球水平辐照度的时空格局，但仍存在对太阳辐射的高估和对总云量的低估。均方根误差为92.83 ~ 188.13 Wm−2，平均偏差（MB）为21.05 ~ 56.22 Wm−2。模拟结果显示，青藏高原拉萨的MB最小，而中国东南部的MB最大。为了提高太阳辐射模拟的精度，作者将太阳全天快速辐射模型与大气环流快速辐射传输模型进行了比较，发现前者能更好地模拟太阳辐射。本研究使用WRF-Solar模式对中国2022年6月25日至7月25日的太阳辐射情况进行了深入模拟,模式网格水平分辨率为27公里,通过与中国生态系统研究网络(CERN)的地面观测网络数据的37个观测站点进行对比,以评估模式性能。结果表明:WRF-Solar模式能较好地捕捉到中国上空的辐照度全球健康行动计划(全球水平照度)的时空分布特征,但存在高估太阳辐射量,以及低估总云量的情况。全国的总辐射模拟均方根误差范围为92.83 - -188.13 W m−2,平均偏差范围为21.05 - -56.22 W m−2。青藏高原拉萨站的偏差最小, 在中国东南部的偏差最大. 为了进一步提升太阳辐射模拟的精确度,本研究还对比了农场与RRTMG辐射方案,发现农场方案的模拟精度更高。

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引用次数: 0

The increase in hot–dry events with a high risk of mortality in China associated with the phase transition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 中国高死亡率干热事件的增加与大西洋多年代际涛动的相变有关

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100609

Yuting Ma , Xinyong Shen , Liang Zhao , Zijia Wang , Huibin Wang , Yihui Ding , Jingsong Wang , Yanju Liu , Cunrui Huang

Compound extreme climate events involving multiple meteorological elements usually have a more severe impact on the environment and human health than single-element extreme events. However, the current definition of multi-element compound extreme events is proposed from meteorological and statistical perspectives, without integrating health data, making the conclusions less practical for guiding health risk prevention. This study identified the threshold for hot–dry compound extreme events with high mortality risks (HMHDs) in China, using daily mortality data and temperature–humidity data from 278 districts or counties, and explored the interdecadal change and driving mechanisms of HMHD frequency in China from 1979 to 2021. The results show a significant increase in annual HMHD frequency in China after 2000, mainly occurring in summer (June, July, August). The northwestern to western regions of China (Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu), and from the southwestern to the areas south of the Yangtze River (Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Yunnan), experience an increase of >10 days. The authors find that the interdecadal abrupt change in HMHD frequency can be attributed to the shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a negative to a positive phase by affecting the Silk Road teleconnection.

摘要

目前对复合极端事件的定义主要从气象和统计学角度出发, 未能结合健康数据, 使相关研究在指导健康风险预防方面的实用性较差. 本研究利用中国死亡数据和温湿度数据, 识别了中国高死亡风险的复合极端干热事件 (HMHDs) 的阈值, 并探讨了HMHD频率的年代际变化及其驱动机制. 结果显示, 中国西北地区, 西南地区和江南地区的HMHD频率平均每年都超过10 天. 2000年后, 中国HMHD频率显著增加, 主要发生在夏季. 驱动机制分析表明, HMHD频率的年代际变化可以归因于大西洋多年代际振荡由负相位转变为正相位. 本研究可为气候变化导致的健康风险防控提供参考依据.

涉及多个气象要素的复合极端气候事件通常比单要素极端气候事件对环境和人类健康的影响更为严重。然而，目前多因素复合极端事件的定义是从气象和统计角度提出的，没有整合卫生数据，结论对指导健康风险预防的实用性较差。利用中国278个区县的日死亡数据和温湿度数据，确定了中国高死亡风险复合极端事件的阈值，探讨了1979 - 2021年中国高死亡风险复合极端事件发生频率的年代际变化及其驱动机制。结果表明：2000年以后，中国HMHD年频率显著增加，主要发生在夏季（6、7、8月）。中国西北至西部地区（新疆、内蒙古、甘肃）和西南至长江以南地区（四川、湖北、湖南、江西、福建、贵州、云南）的平均气温增加了10天。研究发现，hhd频率的年代际突变可归因于大西洋多年代际振荡由负相位向正相位的转变，影响了丝绸之路遥相关。摘要目前对复合极端事件的定义主要从气象和统计学角度出发, 未能结合健康数据, 使相关研究在指导健康风险预防方面的实用性较差. 本研究利用中国死亡数据和温湿度数据,识别了中国高死亡风险的复合极端干热事件(HMHDs)的阈值,并探讨了HMHD频率的年代际变化及其驱动机制。【中文翻译】：中文翻译：中文翻译：2000年1月1日。本研究可为气候变化导致的健康风险防控提供参考依据.

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引用次数: 0

Visible and shortwave-infrared spectral characteristics of mixed-phase clouds in typical satellite radiometer channels 典型卫星辐射计信道中混合相云的可见光和短波红外光谱特征

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100588

Lijun Hu , Bin Yao , Shiwen Teng , Byung-Ju Sohn , Hongchun Jin , Chao Liu

Mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) involve complex microphysical and dynamical processes of cloud formation and dissipation, which are crucial for numerical weather prediction and cloud-climate feedback. However, satellite remote sensing of MPC properties is still challenging, and there is seldom MPC result inferred from passive spectral observations. This study examines the spectral characteristics of MPCs in the shortwave-infrared (SWIR) channels over the wavelength of 0.4–2.5 µm, and evaluates the potential of current operational satellite spectroradiometer channels for MPC retrievals. With optical properties of MPCs based on the assumption of uniform mixing of both ice and liquid water particles, the effects of MPC ice optical thickness fraction (IOTF) and effective radius on associated optical properties are analyzed. As expected, results indicate that the MPC optical properties show features for ice and liquid water clouds, and their spectral variations show noticeable differences from those for homogeneous cases. A radiative transfer method is employed to examine the sensitivity of SWIR channels to given MPC cloud water path (CWP) and IOTF. MPCs have unique signal characteristics in the SWIR spectrum. The 0.87-µm channel is most sensitive to CWP. Meanwhile, the 1.61- and 2.13-µm channels are more sensitive to water-dominated MPCs (IOTF approaching 0), and the 2.25-µm channel is sensitive to both water-dominated and ice-dominated MPCs (IOTF approaching 1). Such spectral differences are potentially possible to be used to infer MPC properties based on radiometer observations, which will be investigated in future studies.

摘要

混合相态云对数值天气预报和云-气候反馈研究都至关重要, 但是对其特性的卫星定量反演还存在巨大挑战。本论文利用辐射传输模拟, 研究混合相云在0.4–2.5 µm光谱范围内的光谱特征, 评估当前典型星载被动光谱辐射计观测反演混合相态云的潜力, 研究发现, 混合相态云的光学特性同时呈现出冰云和液态水云的特点, 而它们的光谱变化特征与冰云或液态水云存在一定差别。其中, 0.87-µm通道对CWP最敏感, 1.61- 和2.13-µm 通道对水云占主导的混合云更加敏感, 2.25-µm通道则对所有混合云都有一定的敏感性, 这些光谱差异可用于反演混合云的特性, 这也将是未来研究重点关注的内容.

混合相云涉及复杂的云形成和消散的微物理和动力过程，对数值天气预报和云-气候反馈至关重要。然而，卫星遥感MPC的性质仍然具有挑战性，从被动光谱观测中推断出的MPC结果很少。本研究考察了0.4-2.5µm波段短波红外（SWIR）通道中MPC的光谱特征，并评估了当前运行的卫星光谱辐射计通道用于MPC检索的潜力。基于冰与液态水粒子均匀混合的假设，以MPC的光学性质为基础，分析了MPC的冰光学厚度分数（IOTF）和有效半径对相关光学性质的影响。结果表明，冰云和液态水云的MPC光学性质具有明显的特征，其光谱变化与均匀云有明显的差异。采用辐射传输法研究了SWIR通道对给定MPC云水路径（CWP）和IOTF的敏感性。mpc在SWIR频谱中具有独特的信号特性。0.87-µm通道对CWP最为敏感。同时，1.61µm和2.13µm的通道对水主导的mpc更敏感（IOTF接近0），而2.25µm的通道对水主导和冰主导的mpc都敏感（IOTF接近1）。这种光谱差异有可能用于根据辐射计观测推断MPC的性质，这将在未来的研究中进行研究。摘要混合相态云对数值天气预报和云-气候反馈研究都至关重要, 但是对其特性的卫星定量反演还存在巨大挑战。本论文利用辐射传输模拟,研究混合相云在0.4 - -2.5µm光谱范围内的光谱特征,评估当前典型星载被动光谱辐射计观测反演混合相态云的潜力,研究发现,混合相态云的光学特性同时呈现出冰云和液态水云的特点,而它们的光谱变化特征与冰云或液态水云存在一定差别。其中,0.87 -µm通道对CWP最敏感,1.61 - 2.13和-µm通道对水云占主导的混合云更加敏感,2.25 -µm通道则对所有混合云都有一定的敏感性,这些光谱差异可用于反演混合云的特性,这也将是未来研究重点关注的内容。

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引用次数: 0

Fluctuations in the relationship between the Silk Road Pattern and the summer North Atlantic Oscillation 丝绸之路格局与夏季北大西洋涛动的波动关系

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100558

Yong Liu , Zhencai Du

This study investigated the fluctuations in the relationship between the Silk Road Pattern (SRP) and the boreal summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO). The results indicated that the SRP–SNAO relationship was relatively weak during 1958–2022, which was primarily due to fluctuations, particularly the reversal in their relationship since the late 1990s. Using wavelet coherence analysis, the authors identified a strong SRP–SNAO linkage on a 4–8-yr timescale, in particular during the mid-1970s to the early/mid-1990s. This strong linkage is mainly attributable to the intensification and eastward movement of the southern part of the SNAO around the mid/late 1970s, which favored the strong connection between the SNAO and the SRP. Additionally, the interdecadal changes of the atmospheric circulations over the North Atlantic and Eurasia around the mid/late 1970s that resembled the circulation anomalies related to the strong SRP–SNAO linkage, may also have provided a favorable background for the strong connection between the two teleconnections. These findings on the fluctuations in the SRP–SNAO linkage may offer important implications for understanding the impact of the SNAO on the SRP and the variability of the SRP.

摘要

本文利用近60年大气再分析数据, 研究了丝绸之路型遥相关 (Silk Road Pattern, SRP) 与夏季北大西洋涛动 (North Atlantic Oscillation, SNAO) 关系的不稳定性及其可能成因. 结果表明, 近60年来, SRP与SNAO的关系具有明显的不稳定性. 两者关系在1970s中期至1990s中期显著增强, 特别在4-8年时间尺度上. 两者关系的增强主要与1970s中后期以来SNAO南部中心增强, 位置东移有关. 同时, 北大西洋和欧亚区域夏季大气环流在1970s末的年代际异常也为两者之间关系的增强提供了有利的气候背景.

研究了丝绸之路模式（SRP）与北半球夏季北大西洋涛动（SNAO）之间的波动关系。结果表明，1958-2022年期间SRP-SNAO关系相对较弱，这主要是由于波动，特别是20世纪90年代末以来两者关系的逆转。利用小波相干性分析，作者发现在4 - 8年的时间尺度上，特别是在20世纪70年代中期至20世纪90年代初/中期，存在很强的SRP-SNAO联系。这种强联系主要是由于70年代中后期前后SNAO南部的强化和东移，有利于SNAO与SRP之间的强联系。此外，20世纪70年代中后期北大西洋和欧亚大陆大气环流的年代际变化类似于与SRP-SNAO强联系相关的环流异常，也可能为这两个遥相关之间的强联系提供了有利的背景。这些关于SRP - SNAO联系波动的发现可能为理解SNAO对SRP的影响和SRP的变异性提供重要启示。摘要本文利用近60年大气再分析数据,研究了丝绸之路型遥相关(丝绸之路模式,SRP)与夏季北大西洋涛动(北大西洋振荡,SNAO)关系的不稳定性及其可能成因。【中文翻译】：【中文翻译】4-8个英文单词【中文译文】同时,北大西洋和欧亚区域夏季大气环流在1970年代末的年代际异常也为两者之间关系的增强提供了有利的气候背景。

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引用次数: 0

Employment of an Arctic sea-ice data assimilation scheme in the coupled climate system model FGOALS-f3-L and its preliminary results 耦合气候系统模式FGOALS-f3-L中北极海冰资料同化方案的应用及其初步结果

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100553

Yuyang Guo , Yongqiang Yu , Jiping Liu

Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades, the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models. In this study, a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model (the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model, version f3-L (FGOALS-f3-L)) to assimilate sea-ice concentration (SIC) and sea-ice thickness (SIT) data for melting-season ice predictions. The scheme is applied through the following steps: (1) initialization for generating initial ensembles; (2) analysis for assimilating observed data; (3) adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories; (4) forecast for evolving the model; (5) resampling for updating model uncertainties. Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts. Compared with the control experiment, the continuous assimilation experiments (CTNs) indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials. Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data. The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well, as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models. The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements. Nevertheless, the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions, which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle (summer melting) biases are unchanged. Therefore, since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system, for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions, oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.

摘要

当前, 快速变化的北极海冰对全球气候有重要影响, 海冰的预报是气候模式的重要应用方向之一. 本研究基于PDAF同化框架, 使用LESTKF方法将北极海冰密集度 (SIC) 和厚度 (SIT) 观测数据同化到气候系统模式FGOALS-f3-L中开展融化季节的海冰预测. 同化的引入共分为集合初始化, 同化分析, 分析场引入, 模式预报, 集合重采样等五个步骤. 试验表明, 连续同化可以持续改进模式模拟的SIC和SIT并生成接近真实的初始场, 同时同化SIC和SIT比只同化SIC能更好地纠正SIT的空间偏差. 利用连续同化生成的初始场进行预报, 能够显著减少海冰边缘的SIC多偏差, 整体的SIT厚偏差以及海洋和大气中的冷偏差, 使用同化了SIC和SIT的初始场能带来更合理的空间改进. 但受模式中海冰季节循环偏强的影响, 预报的夏季海冰会出现偏少, 这表明在耦合系统中准确预报海冰还需纳入海洋和大气同化.

北极海冰是全球气候系统的重要组成部分，在过去几十年中经历了快速变化，其预测是气候模式的重要应用。在本研究中，在一个耦合气候系统模型（柔性全球海洋-大气-陆地系统模型，版本f3-L (faims -f3-L)）中使用局部误差子空间变换卡尔曼滤波来同化海冰浓度（SIC）和海冰厚度（SIT）数据，用于融冰期海冰预测。该方案的应用步骤如下：(1)初始化，生成初始集成；(2)观测数据同化分析；(3)采用将冰态划分为五种厚度类别的方法；(4)模型演化的预测；(5)重采样更新模型不确定性。进行了几项实验来检验其结果和影响。与对照实验相比，连续同化实验（CTNs）表明同化持续改善了模型sic和sit，并生成了真实的首字母。同化SIC+SIT数据比只同化SIC数据更能在空间上修正高估的模型SIT。连续的同化重启实验表明，ctn的首字母可以很好地修正过高估计的边缘sic和总体sit，以及海洋和大气模式中的冷偏差。同化了SIC+SIT的首字母在空间上的改善更为合理。然而，北极中部的温度在夏季经历了异常的减少，这可能是因为过高估计的温度在首字母中减少了，但强烈的季节周期（夏季融化）偏差没有改变。因此，由于耦合系统中的系统偏差是复杂的，为了使FGOALS-f3-L做出更好的冰预测，预计需要海洋和大气同化。摘要当前, 快速变化的北极海冰对全球气候有重要影响, 海冰的预报是气候模式的重要应用方向之一. 针对PDAF同本研究基于化框架,使用LESTKF方法将北极海冰密集度(原文如此)和厚度(坐)观测数据同化到气候系统模式FGOALS-f3-L中开展融化季节的海冰预测。同化的引入共分为集合初始化, 同化分析, 分析场引入, 模式预报, 集合重采样等五个步骤. 试验表明,连续同化可以持续改进模式模拟的碳化硅和坐并生成接近真实的初始场,同时同化碳化硅和坐比只同化SIC能更好地纠正坐的空间偏差。利用连续同化生成的初始场进行预报,能够显著减少海冰边缘的碳化硅多偏差,整体的坐厚偏差以及海洋和大气中的冷偏差,使用同化了碳化硅和坐的初始场能带来更合理的空间改进。但受模式中海冰季节循环偏强的影响, 预报的夏季海冰会出现偏少, 这表明在耦合系统中准确预报海冰还需纳入海洋和大气同化.

{"title":"Employment of an Arctic sea-ice data assimilation scheme in the coupled climate system model FGOALS-f3-L and its preliminary results","authors":"Yuyang Guo , Yongqiang Yu , Jiping Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades, the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models. In this study, a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model (the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model, version f3-L (FGOALS-f3-L)) to assimilate sea-ice concentration (SIC) and sea-ice thickness (SIT) data for melting-season ice predictions. The scheme is applied through the following steps: (1) initialization for generating initial ensembles; (2) analysis for assimilating observed data; (3) adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories; (4) forecast for evolving the model; (5) resampling for updating model uncertainties. Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts. Compared with the control experiment, the continuous assimilation experiments (CTNs) indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials. Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data. The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well, as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models. The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements. Nevertheless, the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions, which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle (summer melting) biases are unchanged. Therefore, since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system, for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions, oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.</div><div>摘要</div><div>当前, 快速变化的北极海冰对全球气候有重要影响, 海冰的预报是气候模式的重要应用方向之一. 本研究基于PDAF同化框架, 使用LESTKF方法将北极海冰密集度 (SIC) 和厚度 (SIT) 观测数据同化到气候系统模式FGOALS-f3-L中开展融化季节的海冰预测. 同化的引入共分为集合初始化, 同化分析, 分析场引入, 模式预报, 集合重采样等五个步骤. 试验表明, 连续同化可以持续改进模式模拟的SIC和SIT并生成接近真实的初始场, 同时同化SIC和SIT比只同化SIC能更好地纠正SIT的空间偏差. 利用连续同化生成的初始场进行预报, 能够显著减少海冰边缘的SIC多偏差, 整体的SIT厚偏差以及海洋和大气中的冷偏差, 使用同化了SIC和SIT的初始场能带来更合理的空间改进. 但受模式中海冰季节循环偏强的影响, 预报的夏季海冰会出现偏少, 这表明在耦合系统中准确预报海冰还需纳入海洋和大气同化.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 4","pages":"Article 100553"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144169720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluating vector winds over eastern China in 2022 predicted by the CMA-MESO model and ECMWF forecast CMA-MESO模式和ECMWF预测的2022年中国东部矢量风的评价

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100559

Fang Huang , Mingjian Zeng , Zhongfeng Xu , Boni Wang , Ming Sun , Hangcheng Ge , Shoukang Wu

Vector winds play a crucial role in weather and climate, as well as the effective utilization of wind energy resources. However, limited research has been conducted on treating the wind field as a vector field in the evaluation of numerical weather prediction models. In this study, the authors treat vector winds as a whole by employing a vector field evaluation method, and evaluate the mesoscale model of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-MESO) and ECMWF forecast, with reference to ERA5 reanalysis, in terms of multiple aspects of vector winds over eastern China in 2022. The results show that the ECMWF forecast is superior to CMA-MESO in predicting the spatial distribution and intensity of 10-m vector winds. Both models overestimate the wind speed in East China, and CMA-MESO overestimates the wind speed to a greater extent. The forecasting skill of the vector wind field in both models decreases with increasing lead time. The forecasting skill of CMA-MESO fluctuates more and decreases faster than that of the ECMWF forecast. There is a significant negative correlation between the model vector wind forecasting skill and terrain height. This study provides a scientific evaluation of the local application of vector wind forecasts of the CMA-MESO model and ECMWF forecast.

摘要

本文利用矢量场评估VFE方法, 从矢量场角度系统性评估CMA-MESO模式与ECMWF模式对2022年华东地区10 m高度矢量风场的预报技巧. 结果表明, ECMWF模式对矢量风场空间分布与风场强度的预报均优于CMA-MESO模式. CMA-MESO模式明显高估了矢量风场的强度. 模式预报技巧随着预报时效的延长而下降, 其中以CMA-MESO模式的预报技巧波动更大, 衰减更迅速. 本研究将为CMA-MESO模式与ECMWF模式风场预报产品的本地化应用, 提供一个科学的评估依据.

矢量风在天气和气候中起着至关重要的作用，也是风能资源的有效利用。然而，将风场作为矢量场来评价数值天气预报模式的研究却很少。本研究采用矢量场评价方法，将矢量风作为一个整体，结合ERA5再分析，对中国气象局（CMA-MESO）中尺度模式和ECMWF预报的2022年中国东部矢量风的多个方面进行了评价。结果表明，ECMWF预报在10 m矢量风的空间分布和强度预测上优于CMA-MESO预报。两种模式均高估了华东地区的风速，CMA-MESO高估的程度更大。两种模式对矢量风场的预测能力均随提前时间的增加而降低。CMA-MESO预报能力比ECMWF预报能力波动大，下降快。模式矢量风预报技能与地形高度呈显著负相关。本研究对CMA-MESO模式和ECMWF预报的矢量风预报在局部应用进行了科学评价。摘要本文利用矢量场评估VFE方法,从矢量场角度系统性评估CMA-MESO模式与ECMWF模式对2022年华东地区10米高度矢量风场的预报技巧。“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”这是一个很好的例子。模式预报技巧随着预报时效的延长而下降,其中以CMA-MESO模式的预报技巧波动更大,衰减更迅速。“”“”“”“”“”“”“”

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引用次数: 0

The asymmetry of air temperature: A new potential method to predict precipitation frequency 气温的不对称性：预测降水频率的潜在新方法

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100531

Yinan Xie, Fenghua Xie

There is a significant bias in the precipitation frequency (PF) obtained from numerical model simulations. In this study, the authors use the temperature asymmetry (TA) as an indirect indicator to predict PF. The empirical orthogonal function method is used to analyze the spatiotemporal correlation of TA and PF at interannual and interdecadal time scales. Furthermore, the authors explore using the TA to improve PF prediction in CMIP6 models. Results show that (1) on an interannual time scale, PF and TA show good spatial and temporal correlations; (2) PF and TA exhibit similar modal transitions on interdecadal time scales; and (3) using TA as an indirect indicator can significantly improve the prediction of PF. The TA may be an indirect method for improving precipitation predictions.

摘要

在数值模拟中日降水频率具有明显的偏差. 利用EOF方法, 分析了在年际和年代际尺度上降水频率与气温的非对称性的时空相关特征, 并探索使用非对称性改进模式降水频率预测的方法. 得到以下结论: 1) 在年际尺度上, 降水频率和气温的非对称的前两个模态的空间和时间相关系数良好; 2) 在年代际尺度上两者展现出相似的模态转变; 3) 非对称性作为降水频率的间接指标可以明显的改进降水频率的预测.

There is a significant bias in the precipitation frequency (PF) obtained from numerical model simulations. In this study, the authors use the temperature asymmetry (TA) as an indirect indicator to predict PF. The empirical orthogonal function method is used to analyze the spatiotemporal correlation of TA and PF at interannual and interdecadal time scales. Furthermore, the authors explore using the TA to improve PF prediction in CMIP6 models. Results show that (1) on an interannual time scale, PF and TA show good spatial and temporal correlations; (2) PF and TA exhibit similar modal transitions on interdecadal time scales; and (3) using TA as an indirect indicator can significantly improve the prediction of PF. The TA may be an indirect method for improving precipitation predictions.摘要在数值模拟中日降水频率具有明显的偏差. 利用EOF方法, 分析了在年际和年代际尺度上降水频率与气温的非对称性的时空相关特征, 并探索使用非对称性改进模式降水频率预测的方法. 得到以下结论: 1) 在年际尺度上, 降水频率和气温的非对称的前两个模态的空间和时间相关系数良好; 2) 在年代际尺度上两者展现出相似的模态转变; 3) 非对称性作为降水频率的间接指标可以明显的改进降水频率的预测.

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引用次数: 0

GF-4 high-resolution texture and FY-4A multispectral data fusion: Two case studies for enhancing early convective cloud detection GF-4高分辨率纹理和FY-4A多光谱数据融合：增强对流云早期探测的两个案例研究

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100551

Yang Gao, Xin Wang, Jun Yang

Early detection of convective clouds is vital for minimizing hazardous impacts. Forecasting convective initiation (CI) using current multispectral geostationary meteorological satellites is often challenged by high false-alarm rates and missed detections caused by limited resolution. In contrast, high-resolution earth observation satellites offer more detailed texture information, improving early detection capabilities. The authors propose a novel methodology that integrates the advanced features of China's latest-generation satellites, Gaofen-4 (GF-4) and Fengyun-4A (FY-4A). This fusion method retains GF's high-resolution details and FY-4A's multispectral information. Two cases from different observational scenarios and weather conditions under GF-4's staring mode were carried out to compare the CI forecast results based on fused data and solely on FY-4A data. The fused data demonstrated superior performance in detecting smaller-scale convective clouds, enabling earlier forecasting with a lead time of 15–30 minutes, and more accurate location identification. Integrating high-resolution earth observation satellites into early convective cloud detection provides valuable insights for forecasters and decision-makers, particularly given the current resolution limitations of geostationary meteorological satellites.

摘要

对流云的早期探测对于降低天气致灾风险至关重要. 当前静止气象卫星受其分辨率的限制, 在预测对流初生 (CI) 时仍存在较高的虚警率和漏报率. 对比而言, 高分辨率的地球观测卫星能够提供更丰富的纹理细节, 有助于提升对流云早期探测的能力. 作者提出了一种创新性的方法, 融合GF-4的高分辨率细节和FY-4A的多光谱信息, 以优化对流云的早期识别和预测. 通过对GF-4凝视模式下两种不同天气条件和观测场景的案例分析, 融合数据在探测更小尺度的对流云方面具有明显优势, 一定程度解决漏报难题, 另一方面能够将对流初生的可探测时间提前, 更精确表现对流爆发位置和更准确刻画对流发展过程. 在当前静止气象卫星分辨率受限的条件下, 这种高分辨率地球观测卫星数据的融合应用能够为气象预报员和决策者提供更有价值的观测视角.

对流云的早期探测对于尽量减少危险影响至关重要。利用当前的多光谱地球同步气象卫星预报对流起爆（CI）经常受到高虚警率和有限分辨率导致的漏检的挑战。相比之下，高分辨率地球观测卫星提供了更详细的纹理信息，提高了早期探测能力。作者提出了一种新的方法，该方法集成了中国最新一代卫星“高分四号”（GF-4）和“风云四号”（FY-4A）的先进特性。这种融合方法保留了GF的高分辨率细节和FY-4A的多光谱信息。采用GF-4凝视模式下不同观测情景和天气条件下的2个案例，比较融合数据和单独使用FY-4A数据的CI预报结果。融合后的数据在探测小尺度对流云方面表现出优异的性能，可以提前15-30分钟进行预报，并更准确地确定位置。将高分辨率地球观测卫星集成到早期对流云探测中，为预报员和决策者提供了有价值的见解，特别是考虑到目前地球静止气象卫星的分辨率限制。齐泽聪，齐泽聪，齐泽聪，齐泽聪，齐泽聪，齐泽聪，齐泽聪，齐泽聪，齐泽聪，齐泽聪。对比而言, 高分辨率的地球观测卫星能够提供更丰富的纹理细节, 有助于提升对流云早期探测的能力. 作者提出了一种创新性的方法,融合GF-4的高分辨率细节和FY-4A的多光谱信息,以优化对流云的早期识别和预测。通过对GF-4凝视模式下两种不同天气条件和观测场景的案例分析,融合数据在探测更小尺度的对流云方面具有明显优势,一定程度解决漏报难题,另一方面能够将对流初生的可探测时间提前,更精确表现对流爆发位置和更准确刻画对流发展过程。在当前静止气象卫星分辨率受限的条件下, 这种高分辨率地球观测卫星数据的融合应用能够为气象预报员和决策者提供更有价值的观测视角.

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引用次数: 0

Impacts of meteorological conditions on the NASM pollution data assimilation system 气象条件对NASM污染资料同化系统的影响

IF 2.3 4区地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100586

Shan Zhang , Liqun Li , Linfeng Shang , Dongji Wang , Guangtao Niu , Xuejun Guo , Xiangjun Tian

Since meteorological conditions are the main factor driving the transport and dispersion of air pollutants, an accurate simulation of the meteorological field will directly affect the accuracy of the atmospheric chemical transport model in simulating PM_2.5. Based on the NASM joint chemical data assimilation system, the authors quantified the impacts of different meteorological fields on the pollutant simulations as well as revealed the role of meteorological conditions in the accumulation, maintenance, and dissipation of heavy haze pollution. During the two heavy pollution processes from 10 to 24 November 2018, the meteorological fields were obtained using NCEP FNL and ERA5 reanalysis data, each used to drive the WRF model, to analyze the differences in the simulated PM_2.5 concentration. The results show that the meteorological field has a strong influence on the concentration levels and spatial distribution of the pollution simulations. The ERA5 group had relatively small simulation errors, and more accurate PM_2.5 simulation results could be obtained. The RMSE was 11.86 μg m⁻³ lower than that of the FNL group before assimilation, and 5.77 μg m⁻³ lower after joint assimilation. The authors used the PM_2.5 simulation results obtained by ERA5 data to discuss the role of the wind field and circulation situation on the pollution process, to analyze the correlation between wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, and boundary layer height and pollutant concentrations, and to further clarify the key formation mechanism of this pollution process.

摘要

气象条件对于污染物的累积, 清除, 传输和扩散有关键的作用. 本文将分别使用FNL 和ERA5再分析资料作为天气模式WRF的初始场, 基于构建的联合数据同化系统, 定量评估气象场对模拟PM_2.5浓度的作用, 同时揭示不同气象要素对于污染物积累, 维持和消散的影响. 研究表明ERA5资料在各个区域的污染模拟结果更接近观测值, 分析了风速, 温度, 相对湿度以及边界层高度与污染物浓度之间的相关性, 并进一步阐明污染过程的形成机制.

由于气象条件是驱动大气污染物输送和扩散的主要因素，对气象场的准确模拟将直接影响大气化学输送模式模拟PM2.5的准确性。基于NASM联合化学资料同化系统，量化了不同气象场对污染物模拟的影响，揭示了气象条件在重霾污染积累、维持和消散中的作用。在2018年11月10日至24日两次重污染过程中，利用NCEP FNL和ERA5再分析数据获取气象场，分别用于驱动WRF模型，分析模拟PM2.5浓度的差异。结果表明，气象场对污染模拟的浓度水平和空间分布有较大的影响。ERA5组的模拟误差相对较小，可以获得更准确的PM2.5模拟结果。同化前RMSE比FNL组低11.86 μ m−3，联合同化后RMSE比FNL组低5.77 μ m−3。利用ERA5数据获得的PM2.5模拟结果，探讨风场和环流情况对污染过程的作用，分析风速、温度、相对湿度、边界层高度与污染物浓度的相关性，进一步阐明该污染过程的关键形成机制。摘要气象条件对于污染物的累积, 清除, 传输和扩散有关键的作用. 本文将分别使用新兵和ERA5再分析资料作为天气模式WRF的初始场,基于构建的联合数据同化系统,定量评估气象场对模拟PM2.5浓度的作用,同时揭示不同气象要素对于污染物积累,维持和消散的影响。研究表明ERA5资料在各个区域的污染模拟结果更接近观测值,分析了风速,温度,相对湿度以及边界层高度与污染物浓度之间的相关性,并进一步阐明污染过程的形成机制。

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引用次数: 0