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Decadal shift in Northeast China’s precipitation around 2000 2000年前后东北降水的年代际变化
IF 3.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100650
Yawen Liao , Tianbao Zhao , Jingpeng Zhang , Yankun Sun
Northeast China (NEC), a critical agricultural and ecological zone, has experienced intensified hydrological variability under global warming, with cascading impacts on food security and ecosystem resilience. This study utilized observational data and two new generation reanalysis products (i.e., the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF (ERA5) and the Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century (JRA-3Q)) to investigate the shift changes in precipitation in NEC around 2000 and associated water vapor transport. The analysis identified a pivotal interdecadal shift in 1998/99, transitioning from moderate increases (17.5 mm/10 yr during 1980–1998) to accelerated but more variable precipitation growth (85.4 mm/10 yr post-1999). While the mean precipitation during the post-shift period decreased, enhanced anticyclonic circulation amplified moisture divergence over continental NEC, redirecting vapor flux toward coastal regions. Crucially, trajectory analysis demonstrated regime-dependent moisture sourcing: midlatitude westerlies dominated during wet extremes (44% of trajectories in 1998), whereas East Asian monsoon flows prevailed in drought years (36 % of trajectories in 2007). The post-1998 period exhibited increased reliance on localized recycling (45 % of mid-tropospheric trajectories), reflecting weakened monsoonal inflow. These findings highlight NEC’s growing vulnerability to competing moisture pathways and atmospheric blocking—a dual mechanism that explains rising extremes despite declining mean precipitation. By reconciling dataset discrepancies (ERA5 vs. JRA-3Q trends) and elucidating circulation-precipitation linkages, this work provides actionable insights for climate-resilient agriculture in NEC’s water-stressed ecosystems.
摘要
东北地区作为中国重要的农业生态区之一, 在区域变暖背景下降水呈现显著波动. 该论文基于CN05.1观测数据与ERA5, JRA-3Q再分析资料, 发现东北地区降水在1998/99年发生关键转折: 降水量增速由前期的17.5 mm/10年 (1980−1998年) 跃升至85.4 mm/10年 (1999−2022年). 反气旋环流增强导致大陆区水汽辐散, 向沿海输送增加.轨迹分析显示水汽来源存在显著年际差异: 1998年丰水期44 %水汽源自西风带, 2007年旱季36 %水汽来自东亚季风.
全球变暖背景下,中国东北地区作为重要的农业生态带,其水文变率加剧,对粮食安全和生态系统恢复力产生连锁影响。本研究利用观测资料和两个新一代再分析产品(ECMWF第5次全球再分析(ERA5)和日本四分之三世纪再分析(JRA-3Q))研究了2000年前后东北地区降水的转移变化及其相关的水汽输送。分析确定了1998/99年的关键年代际转变,从中度增加(1980-1998年期间17.5 mm/10年)过渡到加速但变化更大的降水增长(1999年后85.4 mm/10年)。在转变后平均降水减少的同时,增强的反气旋环流放大了大陆NEC上空的水汽辐散,使水汽通量向沿海地区转移。至关重要的是,轨迹分析证明了依赖于地区的水汽来源:中纬度西风带在极端潮湿年份占主导地位(1998年占44%的轨迹),而东亚季风流在干旱年份占主导地位(2007年占36%的轨迹)。1998年后时期对局部再循环的依赖增加(对流层中层轨迹的45%),反映出季风流入减弱。这些发现突出了NEC对竞争湿度路径和大气阻塞的日益脆弱——这是一种双重机制,解释了尽管平均降水减少,但极端天气却在增加。通过协调数据集差异(ERA5与JRA-3Q趋势)和阐明循环-降水联系,这项工作为NEC缺水生态系统中的气候适应型农业提供了可行的见解。摘要东北地区作为中国重要的农业生态区之一, 在区域变暖背景下降水呈现显著波动. 该论文基于CN05.1观测数据与ERA5, JRA-3Q再分析资料,发现东北地区降水在1998/99年发生关键转折:降水量增速由前期的17.5毫米/ 10年(1980−1998年)跃升至85.4毫米/ 10年(1999−2022年)。反气旋环流增强导致大陆区水汽辐散, 向沿海输送增加.轨迹分析显示水汽来源存在显著年际差异: 1998年丰水期44 %水汽源自西风带, 2007年旱季36 %水汽来自东亚季风.
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引用次数: 0
Compound extreme events and health risks in China: A review 中国复合极端事件与健康风险综述
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100647
Haosu Tang , Gang Huang , Kaiming Hu , Jun Wang , Cunrui Huang , Xianke Yang
Against the backdrop of global warming, China has been facing increasingly frequent and severe extreme weather and climate events, with a prominent risk of compound extreme events induced by interactions among multiple climate drivers and/or hazards. The present study first reviews the definition and classification of compound extreme events in China. Then, it summarizes research progress on the evolutionary characteristics, formation mechanisms, and future projections of different types of compound extreme events. The potential risks and possible impact pathways of three specific event types—namely, continuous day–night hot extremes, temperature–humidity compound events, and high-temperature–ozone compound events—on the health of the Chinese population are then explored. Finally, a framework for assessing the hazard risk of compound extreme events is constructed, accompanied by response strategies based on carbon neutrality targets. Building on existing research achievements, five future research directions are proposed: (1) identifying the risk chains of compound events; (2) addressing the constraints of observational records and coupled model performances; (3) attributing and understanding the drivers of compound extreme events; (4) finding optimal pathways for carbon reduction and air quality improvement; and (5) promoting inter-disciplinary, multi-regional, and cross-sectoral collaboration. Strengthening research in these directions will deepen our understanding of compound extreme events and provide technological support for climate change adaptation and health risk responses in China.
摘要
在全球变暖的背景下, 中国面临着日益频繁和严峻的极端天气气候事件, 其中以多种气候驱动因子和/或灾害相互作用而形成的复合型极端事件风险尤为突出. 本文首先回顾了中国区域复合型极端事件的定义与分型; 然后综述了不同类型复合型极端事件的演变特征, 形成机制以及未来预估等方面的研究进展; 随后, 探讨了日夜持续型极端高温事件, 温湿复合事件以及高温–臭氧复合事件等三类事件对我国人群健康的潜在风险及可能的影响途径; 最后, 阐述了复合型极端事件灾害风险评估框架, 并在此基础上提出了基于碳中和目标的应对策略. 在总结既有研究成果的基础上, 提出了五个未来亟需关注的研究方向: (1)复合事件灾害风险链的识别问题; (2)观测资料和耦合模式性能的制约问题; (3)复合型极端事件的归因与成因问题; (4)碳减排与空气质量改善的最优路径问题; (5)多学科, 多区域, 多部门的合作问题. 加强上述方向的研究有助于深化对复合型极端事件的理解, 并为我国气候变化适应和健康风险应对提供科技支撑.
在全球气候变暖的大背景下,中国极端天气和气候事件日益频繁和严重,多种气候驱动因素和灾害相互作用导致的复合极端事件风险突出。本文首先回顾了中国复合极端事件的定义和分类。总结了不同类型复合极端事件的演化特征、形成机制及未来预测等方面的研究进展。探讨了连续昼夜极端高温事件、温湿度复合事件和高温臭氧复合事件三种特定事件类型对中国人口健康的潜在风险和可能的影响途径。最后,构建了复合极端事件危害风险评估框架,并提出了基于碳中和目标的应对策略。在现有研究成果的基础上,提出了未来的五个研究方向:(1)识别复合事件的风险链;(2)解决观测记录和耦合模式性能的约束;(3)复合极端事件的归因和驱动因素的认识;(4)寻找减少碳排放和改善空气质量的最佳途径;(5)促进跨学科、多地区、跨部门合作。加强这些方向的研究将加深我们对复合极端事件的认识,并为中国适应气候变化和健康风险应对提供技术支持。摘要在全球变暖的背景下, 中国面临着日益频繁和严峻的极端天气气候事件, 其中以多种气候驱动因子和/或灾害相互作用而形成的复合型极端事件风险尤为突出. 本文首先回顾了中国区域复合型极端事件的定义与分型; 然后综述了不同类型复合型极端事件的演变特征, 形成机制以及未来预估等方面的研究进展; 随后, 探讨了日夜持续型极端高温事件, 温湿复合事件以及高温–臭氧复合事件等三类事件对我国人群健康的潜在风险及可能的影响途径; 最后, 阐述了复合型极端事件灾害风险评估框架, 并在此基础上提出了基于碳中和目标的应对策略. 在总结既有研究成果的基础上, 提出了五个未来亟需关注的研究方向: (1)复合事件灾害风险链的识别问题; (2)观测资料和耦合模式性能的制约问题; (3)复合型极端事件的归因与成因问题; (4)碳减排与空气质量改善的最优路径问题; (5)多学科, 多区域, 多部门的合作问题. 加强上述方向的研究有助于深化对复合型极端事件的理解, 并为我国气候变化适应和健康风险应对提供科技支撑.
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引用次数: 0
The strongest early-summer drought–flood abrupt alternation event over the Huang–Huai–Hai River Basin in 2024 since the 1980s: Perspective of anomalous subseasonal circulation evolution 20世纪80年代以来2024年黄淮海流域最强的早夏旱涝突变事件:异常亚季节环流演变的视角
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100648
Zhiheng Chen, Zhihai Zheng
Since the 21st century, the Huang–Huai–Hai River Basin (HHHRB) in China has experienced increased frequency and severity of drought–flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events during early summer, characterized by droughts in June followed by floods in July. The 2024 event was the most severe since 1981. This study demonstrates that such compound extreme events are closely linked to anomalous subseasonal evolution of large-scale atmospheric circulation. During the drought phase, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EAJ) shifts southward, and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) exhibits anomalous strengthening with its western ridge line displaced southward. The flood phase is characterized by acceleration of the EAJ, westward extension of the WPSH, and enhanced southwestern moisture transport from the western Pacific. Beyond these typical features, the 2024 early summer circulation exhibited unique characteristics: Anomalous northeastward intensification of the WPSH facilitated merged moisture influx from both the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific along the southeast pathway into the HHHRB in July, resulting in the highest net moisture inflow at the southern boundary of the HHHRB since 1981. The synergistic effects of multiple factors primarily explain the exceptionally intense DFAA event in 2024.
摘要
21世纪以来, 中国黄淮海地区初夏旱涝急转事件 (6月旱–7月涝) 呈频次增多, 强度增强趋势, 2024年事件为1981年以来最强. 研究表明, 此类复合极端事件与大尺度环流的季节内异常演变密切相关, 其中旱期表现为东亚副热带西风急流的位置偏南, 西太副高的强度偏强但西段脊线偏南; 涝期表现为东亚副热带西风急流增速, 西太副高西伸脊点偏西与西南路径西太水汽的增多. 除上述典型特征外, 2024年初夏的环流演变兼具特殊性——初夏西太副高向东北方向的异常加强, 导致7月印度洋水汽和东南路径的西太水汽合并汇入黄淮海地区, 造成其南边界水汽净流入量达1981年以来峰值. 以上多要素协同是2024年黄淮海地区旱涝急转事件强度异常偏强的重要原因.
21世纪以来,中国黄淮海流域初夏旱涝突变(DFAA)发生频率和严重程度均呈上升趋势,表现为6月旱后7月涝。2024年的地震是1981年以来最严重的一次。研究表明,这种复合极端事件与大尺度大气环流的亚季节异常演变密切相关。干旱期东亚副热带西风急流(EAJ)南移,西太平洋副热带高压(WPSH)异常增强,西脊线南移。洪水期表现为东亚副热带加速,副高西伸,西太平洋向西南输送水汽增强。除了这些典型特征外,2024年初夏环流还表现出独特的特征:西高压东北方向的异常增强促进了印度洋和西太平洋沿东南路径的水汽流入,导致7月西高压南部边界的净水汽流入达到1981年以来的最高水平。多因素的协同效应是2024年DFAA异常强烈的主要原因。摘要21世纪以来, 中国黄淮海地区初夏旱涝急转事件 (6月旱–7月涝) 呈频次增多, 强度增强趋势, 2024年事件为1981年以来最强. 研究表明, 此类复合极端事件与大尺度环流的季节内异常演变密切相关, 其中旱期表现为东亚副热带西风急流的位置偏南, 西太副高的强度偏强但西段脊线偏南; 涝期表现为东亚副热带西风急流增速, 西太副高西伸脊点偏西与西南路径西太水汽的增多. 除上述典型特征外, 2024年初夏的环流演变兼具特殊性——初夏西太副高向东北方向的异常加强, 导致7月印度洋水汽和东南路径的西太水汽合并汇入黄淮海地区, 造成其南边界水汽净流入量达1981年以来峰值. 以上多要素协同是2024年黄淮海地区旱涝急转事件强度异常偏强的重要原因.
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引用次数: 0
Tropical cyclone secondary eyewall width modulation: Differential impacts of surface environmental wind–vertical shear alignment and counter-alignment configurations 热带气旋二次眼壁宽度调制:地面环境风垂直切变对和反对配置的不同影响
IF 3.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100646
Yingying Zheng , Qingqing Li , Yufan Dai
This study investigates the width of the secondary eyewall (SE) immediately following its formation in tropical cyclones with surface environmental winds aligned and counter-aligned with environmental vertical wind shear (VWS), using idealized numerical experiments. Results reveal that the SE develops greater radial extent when surface winds align with VWS compared to counter-aligned conditions. In alignment configurations, shear-enhanced surface winds on the right flank amplify surface enthalpy fluxes, thereby elevating boundary-layer entropy within the downshear outer-core region. Subsequently, more vigorous outer rainbands develop, inducing marked acceleration of tangential winds in the outer core preceding SE formation. The resultant radial expansion of supergradient winds near the boundary-layer top triggers widespread convective activity immediately beyond the inner core. Progressive axisymmetrization of this convective forcing ultimately generates an expansive SE structure.
摘要
在近地面环境风与垂直风切变同向和反向情形下, 次眼墙结构特征存在显著差异, 具体表现为同向情形中次眼墙对流宽度明显大于反向情形. 当环境风与切变同向时, 切变右侧近地面风速增大导致地表焓通量增大, 进而促进顺切变一侧外雨带对流发展. 与外雨带相关的轴平均径向涡度通量使得边界层切向风速显著增大, 形成更大范围的超梯度风, 从而导致边界层辐合区扩大, 触发更大范围的对流活动, 最终对流轴对称化形成更宽的次眼墙.
本文采用理想数值实验的方法,研究了在地面环境风与环境垂直风切变(VWS)正对和反对的情况下,热带气旋次生风眼壁(SE)形成后的宽度。结果表明,当地面风与VWS对齐时,相对于反对齐条件下,东南方向的径向范围更大。在对中配置中,切变增强的右侧表面风放大了表面焓通量,从而提高了下切变外核区域内的边界层熵。随后,更强劲的外围雨带形成,在东南风形成之前,诱发了外围核心切向风的明显加速。边界层顶部附近的超梯度风的径向膨胀引发了广泛的对流活动,立即超出了内核。这种对流强迫的渐进轴对称最终产生膨胀的东南偏南结构。摘要在近地面环境风与垂直风切变同向和反向情形下, 次眼墙结构特征存在显著差异, 具体表现为同向情形中次眼墙对流宽度明显大于反向情形. 当环境风与切变同向时, 切变右侧近地面风速增大导致地表焓通量增大, 进而促进顺切变一侧外雨带对流发展. 与外雨带相关的轴平均径向涡度通量使得边界层切向风速显著增大, 形成更大范围的超梯度风, 从而导致边界层辐合区扩大, 触发更大范围的对流活动, 最终对流轴对称化形成更宽的次眼墙.
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引用次数: 0
Trends and characteristics of global CH4 emissions: Insights from UNFCCC greenhouse gas inventories 全球甲烷排放的趋势和特征:来自《联合国气候变化框架公约》温室气体清单的见解
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100637
Dong Gao , Wenkang Gao , Zhanyun Ma , Lingyun Zhu , Jiajing Tian , Shule Liu , Yangchun Yu , Guozhong Zhang , Qingxian Gao
The trends and characteristics of global CH4 emissions were analyzed using greenhouse gas data reported by both Annex I and non-Annex I countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) from 1990 to 2021. The results show the following: (1) In 2021, the cumulative CH4 emissions from the 42 nations listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC amounted to 1871521.79 kt CO2 eq. The top 10 countries account for 82.0 % of the total CH4 emissions. (2) Most Annex I countries showed a gradual decline in CH4 emissions over the period. In contrast, emissions from non-Annex I countries have increased year by year. Notably, CH4 emissions in the United States, the European Union, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine decreased by 14.0 %, 37.4 %, 24.0 %, and 60.9 %, respectively. (3) In 2020, the CH4 emissions of the agriculture, energy, waste treatment and LULUCF (land use, land-use change and forestry) sectors in Annex I countries were 72240.43, 63863.51, 41573.08, and 889019 million tons of CO2 eq, accounting for 38.6 %, 34.1 %, 22.2 %, and 4.8 %, respectively. Among non-Annex I countries, the main CH4 sources vary by country. In China and Mexico, energy and agriculture were the largest contributors, accounting for 44.8 % and 40.2 % in China, and 34.4 % and 43.3 % in Mexico, respectively. In India, Brazil, Nigeria, Argentina, and Vietnam, agriculture dominated, contributing 73.8 %, 75.8 %, 59.7 %, 60.3 %, and 58.5 % of total emissions, respectively. Indonesia was an exception, with waste treatment being the primary source, accounting for 64.8 % of its total CH4 emissions.
摘要
基于《联合国气候变化框架公约》 (UNFCCC) 附件一国家提交的 1990 年至最新清单年份 (2021 年) 温室气体排放数据, 探讨了附件一和非附件一国家排放现状, 演变趋势和关键排放源. 结果表明: 2021年UNFCCC附件一中42个国家CH4总排放量为1871521.79 kt CO2当量. 排在前10位的国家占CH4总排放量的82.0 %. (2)大多数附件一国家的CH4排放量呈逐渐下降趋势, 非附件一国家的CH4排放量呈逐年增加趋势, 其中最大的排放源的美国, 欧盟(公约), 俄罗斯联邦和乌克兰排放量分别下降了13.96 %, 37.44 %, 24.01 %和60.89 %. 乌克兰, 英国, 意大利和罗马尼亚与1990年相比, 2021年的排放量减少了60 %以上. (3) 2020年, 附件一国家农业, 能源, 废物处理和LULUCF行业的CH4排放量分别为72240.43, 63863.51, 41573.08和889.19亿吨CO2当量, 占比分别为38.60 %, 34.11 %, 22.21 %和4.75 %. 在UNFCCC非附件一国家中, 能源和农业部门是中国和墨西哥最主要的CH4排放源, 分别占中国总排放量的44.77 %和40.23 %, 占墨西哥总排放量的34.44 %和43.29 %. 在印度, 巴西, 尼日利亚, 阿根廷和越南, 农业部门是最主要的排放源, 分别占总排放量的73.75 %, 75.78 %, 59.66 %, 60.29 %和58.47 %. 印度尼西亚以废物处理部门为主, 占总排放量的64.79 %.
利用《联合国气候变化框架公约》附件一和非附件一国家1990 - 2021年报告的温室气体数据,分析了全球CH4排放的趋势和特征。结果表明:①《联合国气候变化框架公约》附件一所列42个国家2021年CH4累计排放量为1871521.79 kt CO2当量,排在前10位的国家占CH4总排放量的82.0%。(2)在此期间,大多数附件一国家的CH4排放量呈逐渐下降趋势。相比之下,非附件一国家的排放量逐年增加。值得注意的是,美国、欧盟、俄罗斯联邦和乌克兰的CH4排放量分别下降了14.0%、37.4%、24.0%和60.9%。(3) 2020年,附件一国家农业、能源、废物处理和LULUCF(土地利用、土地利用变化和林业)部门的CH4排放量分别为7224.43、63863.51、41573.08和889.19亿吨CO2当量,占比分别为38.6%、34.1%、22.2%和4.8%。在非附件一国家中,甲烷的主要来源因国家而异。在中国和墨西哥,能源和农业是最大的贡献者,分别占中国的44.8%和40.2%,墨西哥的34.4%和43.3%。在印度、巴西、尼日利亚、阿根廷和越南,农业占主导地位,分别占总排放量的73.8%、75.8%、59.7%、60.3%和58.5%。印度尼西亚是一个例外,废物处理是主要来源,占其CH4总排放量的64.8%。摘要基于“联合国气候变化框架公约”(UNFCCC)附件一国家提交的1990年至最新清单年份(2021年)温室气体排放数据,探讨了附件一和非附件一国家排放现状,演变趋势和关键排放源。结果表明:2021年《联合国气候变化框架公约》附件一中42个国家CH4总排放量为1871521.79 kt二氧化碳当量。82.0%。(2)大多数附件一国家的CH4排放量呈逐渐下降趋势,非附件一国家的CH4排放量呈逐年增加趋势,其中最大的排放源的美国,欧盟(公约),俄罗斯联邦和乌克兰排放量分别下降了13.96%,37.44%,24.01%和60.89%。乌克兰, 英国, 意大利和罗马尼亚与1990年相比, 2021年的排放量减少了60 %以上. (3) 2020年,附件一国家农业,能源,废物处理和LULUCF行业的CH4排放量分别为72240.43,63863.51,41573.08和889.19亿吨二氧化碳当量,占比分别为38.60%,34.11%,22.21%和4.75%。在《联合国气候变化框架公约》非附件一国家中,能源和农业部门是中国和墨西哥最主要的CH4排放源,分别占中国总排放量的44.77%和40.23%,占墨西哥总排放量的34.44%和43.29%。在印度,巴西,尼日利亚,阿根廷和越南,农业部门是最主要的排放源,分别占总排放量的73.75%,75.78%,59.66%,60.29%和58.47%。64.79%。
{"title":"Trends and characteristics of global CH4 emissions: Insights from UNFCCC greenhouse gas inventories","authors":"Dong Gao ,&nbsp;Wenkang Gao ,&nbsp;Zhanyun Ma ,&nbsp;Lingyun Zhu ,&nbsp;Jiajing Tian ,&nbsp;Shule Liu ,&nbsp;Yangchun Yu ,&nbsp;Guozhong Zhang ,&nbsp;Qingxian Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100637","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100637","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The trends and characteristics of global CH<sub>4</sub> emissions were analyzed using greenhouse gas data reported by both Annex I and non-Annex I countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) from 1990 to 2021. The results show the following: (1) In 2021, the cumulative CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from the 42 nations listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC amounted to 1871521.79 kt CO<sub>2</sub> eq. The top 10 countries account for 82.0 % of the total CH<sub>4</sub> emissions. (2) Most Annex I countries showed a gradual decline in CH<sub>4</sub> emissions over the period. In contrast, emissions from non-Annex I countries have increased year by year. Notably, CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in the United States, the European Union, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine decreased by 14.0 %, 37.4 %, 24.0 %, and 60.9 %, respectively. (3) In 2020, the CH<sub>4</sub> emissions of the agriculture, energy, waste treatment and LULUCF (land use, land-use change and forestry) sectors in Annex I countries were 72240.43, 63863.51, 41573.08, and 889019 million tons of CO<sub>2</sub> eq, accounting for 38.6 %, 34.1 %, 22.2 %, and 4.8 %, respectively. Among non-Annex I countries, the main CH<sub>4</sub> sources vary by country. In China and Mexico, energy and agriculture were the largest contributors, accounting for 44.8 % and 40.2 % in China, and 34.4 % and 43.3 % in Mexico, respectively. In India, Brazil, Nigeria, Argentina, and Vietnam, agriculture dominated, contributing 73.8 %, 75.8 %, 59.7 %, 60.3 %, and 58.5 % of total emissions, respectively. Indonesia was an exception, with waste treatment being the primary source, accounting for 64.8 % of its total CH<sub>4</sub> emissions.</div><div>摘要</div><div>基于《联合国气候变化框架公约》 (UNFCCC) 附件一国家提交的 1990 年至最新清单年份 (2021 年) 温室气体排放数据, 探讨了附件一和非附件一国家排放现状, 演变趋势和关键排放源. 结果表明: 2021年UNFCCC附件一中42个国家CH<sub>4</sub>总排放量为1871521.79 kt CO<sub>2</sub>当量. 排在前10位的国家占CH<sub>4</sub>总排放量的82.0 %. (2)大多数附件一国家的CH<sub>4</sub>排放量呈逐渐下降趋势, 非附件一国家的CH<sub>4</sub>排放量呈逐年增加趋势, 其中最大的排放源的美国, 欧盟(公约), 俄罗斯联邦和乌克兰排放量分别下降了13.96 %, 37.44 %, 24.01 %和60.89 %. 乌克兰, 英国, 意大利和罗马尼亚与1990年相比, 2021年的排放量减少了60 %以上. (3) 2020年, 附件一国家农业, 能源, 废物处理和LULUCF行业的CH<sub>4</sub>排放量分别为72240.43, 63863.51, 41573.08和889.19亿吨CO<sub>2</sub>当量, 占比分别为38.60 %, 34.11 %, 22.21 %和4.75 %. 在UNFCCC非附件一国家中, 能源和农业部门是中国和墨西哥最主要的CH<sub>4</sub>排放源, 分别占中国总排放量的44.77 %和40.23 %, 占墨西哥总排放量的34.44 %和43.29 %. 在印度, 巴西, 尼日利亚, 阿根廷和越南, 农业部门是最主要的排放源, 分别占总排放量的73.75 %, 75.78 %, 59.66 %, 60.29 %和58.47 %. 印度尼西亚以废物处理部门为主, 占总排放量的64.79 %.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 5","pages":"Article 100637"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144696948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bias characteristics of cloud diurnal variation in the FGOALS-f3-L model FGOALS-f3-L模式云日变化的偏置特征
IF 3.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100636
Hongtao Yang , Guoxing Chen , Qing Bao , Bian He
Cloud diurnal variation is crucial for regulating cloud radiative effects and atmospheric dynamics. However, it is often overlooked in the evaluation and development of climate models. Thus, this study aims to investigate the daily mean (CFR) and diurnal variation (CDV) of cloud fraction across high-, middle-, low-level, and total clouds in the FGOALS-f3-L general circulation model. The bias of total CDV is decomposed into the model biases in CFRs and CDVs of clouds at all three levels. Results indicate that the model generally underestimates low-level cloud fraction during the daytime and high-/middle-level cloud fraction at nighttime. The simulation biases of low clouds, especially their CDV biases, dominate the bias of total CDV. Compensation effects exist among the bias decompositions, where the negative contributions of underestimated daytime low-level cloud fraction are partially offset by the opposing contributions from biases in high-/middle-level clouds. Meanwhile, the bias contributions have notable land–ocean differences and region-dependent characteristics, consistent with the model biases in these variables. Additionally, the study estimates the influences of CFR and CDV biases on the bias of shortwave cloud radiative effects. It reveals that the impacts of CDV biases can reach half of those from CFR biases, highlighting the importance of accurate CDV representation in climate models.
摘要
云量日变化可以调节云辐射效应, 影响大气动力过程, 但在气候模式评估中常被忽视. 本研究评估了FGOALS-f3-L模式中高, 中, 低云及总云云量的日均值和日变化特征. 结果表明, 模式普遍低估白天低云云量和夜间中, 高云云量. 低云云量日变化误差主导总云云量日变化误差. 其中, 低云误差造成的负值贡献被中, 高云误差的正值贡献部分抵消. 误差贡献呈现显著的海陆和区域差异, 与相应云量的模式误差一致. 同时, 云量日变化误差对短波云辐射效应误差的影响可达日均云量影响的一半, 突显了在模式中准确表征云量日变化的重要性.
云日变化对调节云辐射效应和大气动力学至关重要。然而,在气候模式的评估和开发中,这一点经常被忽视。因此,本研究旨在研究FGOALS-f3-L环流模式中高、中、低层和总云的云分数的日平均值(CFR)和日变化(CDV)。将总CDV的偏置分解为三层云的CFRs和CDV的模式偏置。结果表明,该模式在白天普遍低估了低层云分数,而在夜间普遍低估了高层/中层云分数。低云的模拟偏倚,特别是低云的CDV偏倚,支配着总CDV的偏倚。在偏差分解中存在补偿效应,其中低估的白天低层云分数的负贡献部分被高/中层云偏差的相反贡献所抵消。同时,偏差贡献具有显著的陆海差异和区域依赖特征,与这些变量的模型偏差一致。此外,研究估计了CFR和CDV偏差对短波云辐射效应偏差的影响。它揭示了CDV偏差的影响可以达到CFR偏差的一半,突出了气候模型中准确表达CDV的重要性。摘要云量日变化可以调节云辐射效应, 影响大气动力过程, 但在气候模式评估中常被忽视. 【中文翻译】:【中文翻译】结果表明, 模式普遍低估白天低云云量和夜间中, 高云云量. 低云云量日变化误差主导总云云量日变化误差. 其中, 低云误差造成的负值贡献被中, 高云误差的正值贡献部分抵消. 误差贡献呈现显著的海陆和区域差异, 与相应云量的模式误差一致. 同时, 云量日变化误差对短波云辐射效应误差的影响可达日均云量影响的一半, 突显了在模式中准确表征云量日变化的重要性.
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引用次数: 0
Surface flux–induced salinity change and its effects on ocean stratification in response to global warming 地表通量引起的盐度变化及其对全球变暖下海洋分层的影响
IF 3.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100635
Hai Zhi , Tianyi Ma , Rong-Hua Zhang , Xiaokun Wang , Minmin Wu
Global warming induced by increased CO2 has caused marked changes in the ocean. Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity, largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes. This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes. The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity (SSS) dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools, driven by surface flux perturbations. This results in an intensification of the “salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher” SSS pattern across the global ocean. The spatial pattern amplification (PA) of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5 %, with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA, accounting for 8.1 % of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control (piControl). Notably, the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water, with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m. This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature. In response to the flux perturbations, there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening. It is hypothesized that under global warming, an SSS amplification of 7.2 %/°C and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5 %/°C will occur in the global ocean. It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat, which provides positive feedback to future global warming.
摘要
由于二氧化碳 (CO2) 增加导致的全球变暖已经对海洋产生了显著变化. 以往对海洋盐度变化响应于全球变暖的估计存在相当大的不确定性, 这主要归因于模式对表面通量的敏感性差异. 研究利用“通量异常强迫模式比较计划” (Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project) 的数据, 探讨全球变暖背景下海洋盐度变化如何响应表面通量的扰动. 结果表明, 在北大西洋和太平洋, 表面通量扰动导致了海表面盐度 (SSS) 偶极模态的出现. 使得全球海洋中“咸的变得更咸, 淡的变得更淡”的SSS分布模态的进一步增强. 其中, SSS的空间模式放大 (PA) 估计约为11.5 %. 其中表面水通量扰动是盐度PA 增强的最显著贡献者, 对比对照实验 (piControl) 开始后70年内总变化的8.1 %. 值得注意的是, 通量强迫导致上层海洋的盐度层结化加强, 显示出大部分海洋上层盐度降低, 上层400米处的等密度线呈现“碗”型状态. 稳定的层结抑制了盐度和温度的垂直混合. 作为对通量扰动的响应, 上层海洋淡化作用, 对全球变暖产生了强烈的正反馈. 研究表明, 在全球变暖背景下, 全球海洋的SSS将放大7.2 %/°C, 混合层深度的强度变化将放大12.5 %/°C. 这表明盐度效应可以使海洋更加稳定, 从而阻碍热量向下传输, 对未来的全球变暖提供正反馈.
二氧化碳增加引起的全球变暖已经引起了海洋的显著变化。以前对全球变暖对海洋盐度变化的响应的估计相当模糊,这在很大程度上是由于地表通量的不同敏感性。本研究利用通量-异常-强迫模式比对项目的数据来研究海洋盐度对地表通量扰动的响应。研究结果表明,在海面通量扰动的驱动下,北大西洋和太平洋淡水池主要出现了海面盐度(SSS)偶极子模式。这导致了全球海洋“咸的越来越咸,新鲜的越来越新鲜”的SSS模式的加剧。全球变暖下SSS的空间格局放大(PA)估计约为11.5%,地表水通量扰动是盐度PA的最重要贡献者,占工业化前控制(piccontrol)以来70年变化的8.1%。值得注意的是,上层海洋盐度的纬向深度分布表现为海水密度较低,海水密度较高,上层400 m呈弓形等压线。这种稳定的分层抑制了盐度和温度的垂直混合。作为对通量扰动的响应,由于随之而来的刷新,存在一个强的正反馈。假设在全球变暖的情况下,全球海洋将出现7.2% /°C的SSS放大和12.5% /°C的混合层深度放大。这表明,盐度效应可以施加一个更稳定的海洋来阻止热量的向下传递,这对未来的全球变暖提供了正反馈。(co2)。以往对海洋盐度变化响应于全球变暖的估计存在相当大的不确定性, 这主要归因于模式对表面通量的敏感性差异. 研究利用“通量异常强迫模式比较计划“(Flux-Anomaly-Forced模型相互比较项目)的数据,探讨全球变暖背景下海洋盐度变化如何响应表面通量的扰动。(1)、(2)、(3)。“。(1) 11.5%。其中表面水通量扰动是盐度PA增强的最显著贡献者,对比对照实验(piControl)开始后70年内总变化的8.1%。值得注意的是, 通量强迫导致上层海洋的盐度层结化加强, 显示出大部分海洋上层盐度降低, 上层400米处的等密度线呈现“碗”型状态. 稳定的层结抑制了盐度和温度的垂直混合. 作为对通量扰动的响应, 上层海洋淡化作用, 对全球变暖产生了强烈的正反馈. 研究表明,在全球变暖背景下,全球海洋的瑞士将放/°C大7.2%,混合层深度的强度变化将放/°C大12.5%。这表明盐度效应可以使海洋更加稳定, 从而阻碍热量向下传输, 对未来的全球变暖提供正反馈.
{"title":"Surface flux–induced salinity change and its effects on ocean stratification in response to global warming","authors":"Hai Zhi ,&nbsp;Tianyi Ma ,&nbsp;Rong-Hua Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiaokun Wang ,&nbsp;Minmin Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global warming induced by increased CO<sub>2</sub> has caused marked changes in the ocean. Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity, largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes. This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes. The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity (SSS) dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools, driven by surface flux perturbations. This results in an intensification of the “salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher” SSS pattern across the global ocean. The spatial pattern amplification (PA) of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5 %, with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA, accounting for 8.1 % of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control (piControl). Notably, the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water, with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m. This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature. In response to the flux perturbations, there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening. It is hypothesized that under global warming, an SSS amplification of 7.2 %/°C and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5 %/°C will occur in the global ocean. It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat, which provides positive feedback to future global warming.</div><div>摘要</div><div>由于二氧化碳 (CO<sub>2</sub>) 增加导致的全球变暖已经对海洋产生了显著变化. 以往对海洋盐度变化响应于全球变暖的估计存在相当大的不确定性, 这主要归因于模式对表面通量的敏感性差异. 研究利用“通量异常强迫模式比较计划” (Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project) 的数据, 探讨全球变暖背景下海洋盐度变化如何响应表面通量的扰动. 结果表明, 在北大西洋和太平洋, 表面通量扰动导致了海表面盐度 (SSS) 偶极模态的出现. 使得全球海洋中“咸的变得更咸, 淡的变得更淡”的SSS分布模态的进一步增强. 其中, SSS的空间模式放大 (PA) 估计约为11.5 %. 其中表面水通量扰动是盐度PA 增强的最显著贡献者, 对比对照实验 (piControl) 开始后70年内总变化的8.1 %. 值得注意的是, 通量强迫导致上层海洋的盐度层结化加强, 显示出大部分海洋上层盐度降低, 上层400米处的等密度线呈现“碗”型状态. 稳定的层结抑制了盐度和温度的垂直混合. 作为对通量扰动的响应, 上层海洋淡化作用, 对全球变暖产生了强烈的正反馈. 研究表明, 在全球变暖背景下, 全球海洋的SSS将放大7.2 %/°C, 混合层深度的强度变化将放大12.5 %/°C. 这表明盐度效应可以使海洋更加稳定, 从而阻碍热量向下传输, 对未来的全球变暖提供正反馈.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":"Article 100635"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145610573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Interannual modulation of summer precipitation over North China by the coupled tropical Pacific–Atlantic SST Dipole Mode 热带太平洋-大西洋海温偶极模对华北夏季降水的年际调制
IF 3.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100634
Yanjin Mao , Xiaorui Niu , Ping Li , Xianchun Chen , Libin Huang , Xin Tan
Using multi-source reanalysis data, this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific–Atlantic SST Dipole Mode (TPA-DM) and summer precipitation in North China (NCSP) on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979–2022. The results show that the TPA-DM, the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions, exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP. The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern, which initiates a Pacific–Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast. The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China, leading to below-normal rainfall. Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind–evaporation–SST–convection feedback.
摘要
利用多源再分析数据, 本文研究了1979–2022年期间热带太平洋–大西洋海温偶极子模态 (TPA-DM) 对中国华北地区夏季降水 (NCSP) 年际变化的影响. 结果表明, TPA-DM是热带太平洋和大西洋海温年际变率的主导模态, 与NCSP呈显著的负相关关系 (−0.52) . TPA-DM的正位相海温异常通过纬向环流在海洋性大陆引发异常下沉, 进而在东亚沿海激发出类似太平洋–日本型的波列, 导致华北地区水汽减少和辐合下沉, 从而造成降水异常偏少. 此外, 热带南大西洋的异常冷海温通过激发与风–蒸发–海温–对流反馈机制, 促使异常沃克环流的形成, 从而增强和维持了TPA-DM型海温的增强与维持.
利用多源再分析资料,研究了1979-2022年热带太平洋-大西洋海温偶极子模态(TPA-DM)与华北夏季降水(NCSP)的年际时间尺度关系。结果表明,TPA-DM与NCSP呈显著负相关,是热带太平洋和大西洋地区年际变化的主导模式。TPA-DM的正相位通过纬向环流模式引起海洋大陆的下沉,从而在东亚海岸引发类似太平洋-日本的波列。环流异常导致华北水汽亏缺和辐合沉降,导致降水低于正常水平。进一步分析表明,南热带大西洋较冷的海温通过刺激与风-蒸发-海温-对流反馈相关的异常Walker环流,促进了TPA-DM的持续。摘要利用多源再分析数据,本文研究了1979 - 2022年期间热带太平洋——大西洋海温偶极子模态(TPA-DM)对中国华北地区夏季降水(NCSP)年际变化的影响。结果表明,TPA-DM是热带太平洋和大西洋海温年际变率的主导模态,与NCSP呈显著的负相关关系(−0.52)。TPA-DM的正位相海温异常通过纬向环流在海洋性大陆引发异常下沉,进而在东亚沿海激发出类似太平洋,日本型的波列,导致华北地区水汽减少和辐合下沉,从而造成降水异常偏少。此外,热带南大西洋的异常冷海温通过激发与风——蒸发——海温——对流反馈机制,促使异常沃克环流的形成,从而增强和维持了TPA-DM型海温的增强与维持。
{"title":"Interannual modulation of summer precipitation over North China by the coupled tropical Pacific–Atlantic SST Dipole Mode","authors":"Yanjin Mao ,&nbsp;Xiaorui Niu ,&nbsp;Ping Li ,&nbsp;Xianchun Chen ,&nbsp;Libin Huang ,&nbsp;Xin Tan","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using multi-source reanalysis data, this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific–Atlantic SST Dipole Mode (TPA-DM) and summer precipitation in North China (NCSP) on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979–2022. The results show that the TPA-DM, the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions, exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP. The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern, which initiates a Pacific–Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast. The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China, leading to below-normal rainfall. Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind–evaporation–SST–convection feedback.</div><div>摘要</div><div>利用多源再分析数据, 本文研究了1979–2022年期间热带太平洋–大西洋海温偶极子模态 (TPA-DM) 对中国华北地区夏季降水 (NCSP) 年际变化的影响. 结果表明, TPA-DM是热带太平洋和大西洋海温年际变率的主导模态, 与NCSP呈显著的负相关关系 (−0.52) . TPA-DM的正位相海温异常通过纬向环流在海洋性大陆引发异常下沉, 进而在东亚沿海激发出类似太平洋–日本型的波列, 导致华北地区水汽减少和辐合下沉, 从而造成降水异常偏少. 此外, 热带南大西洋的异常冷海温通过激发与风–蒸发–海温–对流反馈机制, 促使异常沃克环流的形成, 从而增强和维持了TPA-DM型海温的增强与维持.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"19 1","pages":"Article 100634"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145610576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Historical and future climate changes impact global solar photovoltaic power potential: Role of key meteorological variables 历史和未来气候变化对全球太阳能光伏发电潜力的影响:关键气象变量的作用
IF 3.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100619
Chang Liu, Lei Chen, Ke Li, Xipeng Jin, Xi Chen, Wenhao Qiao, Hong Liao
Renewable energy, especially solar power, is vital for mitigating global warming, while climate change also impacts solar photovoltaic potential (PVpot). This study analyzes historical (1985–2014) and future (2015–2100) climate effects on PVpot, and quantifies contributions from changed radiation, temperature, and wind speed. Historically, global PVpot increased by 0.42 ‰, with notable rises in eastern China (+7.1 ‰) and southern Europe (+3.5 ‰). By the end of the century, increased radiation-induced PVpot (+1.27 ‰) offsets temperature-induced PVpot loss (−0.54 ‰) under SSP1-2.6, yielding a net PVpot increase (+0.74 ‰). Under SSP2-4.5, the temperature-induced PVpot decline (−1.50 ‰) drives the final PVpot reduction (−1.15 ‰). Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, combined radiation-induced (−1.94 ‰ and −1.99 ‰) and temperature-induced PVpot changes (−2.67 ‰ and −3.41 ‰) result in significant PVpot declines (−4.57 ‰ and −5.31 ‰). Regional analysis reveals that eastern China (+0.7‰ to +8.6 ‰), southern Europe (+0.3 ‰ to +2.5 ‰), and Northwest South America (+0.6 ‰ to +2.1 ‰) retain positive changes in future PVpot across all climate scenarios, which may be due to reduced aerosols and cloud cover, suggesting these areas can remain suitable for photovoltaic installations despite climate changes. In contrast, temperature-driven PVpot declines over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (−9.1 ‰ to −4.3 ‰) and northern Africa (−9.3 ‰ to −4.9 ‰) under future high-emission scenarios indicate that these historically advantageous regions will become less suitable for solar energy deployment. The findings underscore that climate changes driven by sustainable development pathways will generate more PVpot in the future for better global warming mitigation.
摘要
可再生能源, 特别是太阳能发电对于减缓全球变暖至关重要, 但气候变化会影响太阳能光伏潜力 (PVpot) . 本研究分析了历史 (1985–2014年) 和未来 (2015–2100年) 气候对PVpot的影响, 量化了辐射, 温度和风速的贡献. 从历史上看, 全球PVpot增加了0.42 ‰, 其中中国东部 (+7.1 ‰) 和南欧 (+3.5 ‰) 的增长显著. 到本世纪末, 在SSP1-2.6下, 辐射引起的PVpot增加 (+1.27 ‰) 抵消了温度引起的PVpot损失 (−0.54 ‰) , 从而PVpot增加 (+0.74 ‰). 在SSP2-4.5下, 温度引起的PVpot下降 (−1.50 ‰) 导致最终PVpot减少 (−1.15 ‰) . 在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5中, 辐射引起的 (−1.94 ‰和−1.99 ‰) 和温度引起的PVpot变化 (−2.67 ‰和−3.41 ‰) 共同导致PVpot显著下降 (−4.57 ‰和−5.31 ‰) . 区域分析表明, 中国东部 (+0.7 ‰∼+8.6 ‰) , 南欧 (+0.3 ‰∼+2.5 ‰) 和南美洲西北部 (+0.6 ‰∼+2.1 ‰) 在所有气候情景下的PVpot都保持正变化, 这可能是由于气溶胶和云量减少, 这表明尽管未来气候变化, 这些地区仍然适合安装光伏设备. 相比之下, 在高排放情景下, 青藏高原 (−9.1 ‰∼−4.3 ‰) 和北非 (−9.3‰∼−4.9 ‰) 的光伏发电量因温度升高而下降, 这些历史上有利的地区将不再适合部署太阳能. 本研究结果强调, 可持续发展道路推动的气候变化将在未来产生更多的光伏发电量, 从而更好地减缓全球变暖.
可再生能源,尤其是太阳能,对于减缓全球变暖至关重要,而气候变化也会影响太阳能光伏潜力(PVpot)。本研究分析了历史(1985-2014)和未来(2015-2100)气候对PVpot的影响,并量化了辐射、温度和风速变化的贡献。从历史上看,全球PVpot增加了0.42‰,其中中国东部(+7.1‰)和南欧(+3.5‰)的增幅显著。到本世纪末,在SSP1-2.6下,辐射引起的PVpot增加(+1.27‰)抵消了温度引起的PVpot损失(- 0.54‰),产生净PVpot增加(+0.74‰)。在SSP2-4.5下,温度诱导的PVpot下降(- 1.50‰)驱动最终PVpot降低(- 1.15‰)。在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5下,辐射诱导(- 1.94‰和- 1.99‰)和温度诱导(- 2.67‰和- 3.41‰)导致PVpot显著下降(- 4.57‰和- 5.31‰)。区域分析显示,中国东部地区(+0.7‰~ +8.6‰)、南欧地区(+0.3‰~ +2.5‰)和南美洲西北部地区(+0.6‰~ +2.1‰)在所有气候情景下,未来PVpot均保持正变化,这可能是由于气溶胶和云层的减少,表明这些地区在气候变化的情况下仍然适合光伏安装。在未来的高排放情景下,北非(- 9.3‰至- 4.9‰)和北非(1‰至- 4.3‰)表明这些历史上具有优势的地区将不再适合太阳能的部署。研究结果强调,可持续发展路径驱动的气候变化将在未来产生更多的PVpot,以更好地减缓全球变暖。摘要可再生能源,特别是太阳能发电对于减缓全球变暖至关重要,但气候变化会影响太阳能光伏潜力(PVpot)。本研究分析了历史(1985 - 2014年)和未来(2015 - 2100年)气候对PVpot的影响,量化了辐射,温度和风速的贡献。从历史上看,全球PVpot增加了0.42‰,其中中国东部(+ 7.1‰)和南欧(+ 3.5‰)的增长显著。到本世纪末,在ssp1 - 2.6下,辐射引起的PVpot增加(+ 1.27‰)抵消了温度引起的PVpot损失(−0.54‰),从而PVpot增加(+ 0.74‰)。在ssp2 - 4.5下,温度引起的PVpot下降(−1.50‰)导致最终PVpot减少(−1.15‰)。在ssp3 - 7.0和ssp5 - 8.5中,辐射引起的(−1.94‰和−1.99‰)和温度引起的PVpot变化(−2.67‰和−3.41‰)共同导致PVpot显著下降(−4.57‰和−5.31‰)。区域分析表明,中国东部(+ 0.7‰∼+ 8.6‰),南欧(+ 0.3‰∼+ 2.5‰)和南美洲西北部(+ 0.6‰∼+ 2.1‰)在所有气候情景下的PVpot都保持正变化,这可能是由于气溶胶和云量减少,这表明尽管未来气候变化,这些地区仍然适合安装光伏设备。相比之下,在高排放情景下,青藏高原(−9.1‰∼−4.3‰)和北非(−9.3‰∼−4.9‰)的光伏发电量因温度升高而下降,这些历史上有利的地区将不再适合部署太阳能。本研究结果强调, 可持续发展道路推动的气候变化将在未来产生更多的光伏发电量, 从而更好地减缓全球变暖.
{"title":"Historical and future climate changes impact global solar photovoltaic power potential: Role of key meteorological variables","authors":"Chang Liu,&nbsp;Lei Chen,&nbsp;Ke Li,&nbsp;Xipeng Jin,&nbsp;Xi Chen,&nbsp;Wenhao Qiao,&nbsp;Hong Liao","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100619","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100619","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Renewable energy, especially solar power, is vital for mitigating global warming, while climate change also impacts solar photovoltaic potential (PVpot). This study analyzes historical (1985–2014) and future (2015–2100) climate effects on PVpot, and quantifies contributions from changed radiation, temperature, and wind speed. Historically, global PVpot increased by 0.42 ‰, with notable rises in eastern China (+7.1 ‰) and southern Europe (+3.5 ‰). By the end of the century, increased radiation-induced PVpot (+1.27 ‰) offsets temperature-induced PVpot loss (−0.54 ‰) under SSP1-2.6, yielding a net PVpot increase (+0.74 ‰). Under SSP2-4.5, the temperature-induced PVpot decline (−1.50 ‰) drives the final PVpot reduction (−1.15 ‰). Under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, combined radiation-induced (−1.94 ‰ and −1.99 ‰) and temperature-induced PVpot changes (−2.67 ‰ and −3.41 ‰) result in significant PVpot declines (−4.57 ‰ and −5.31 ‰). Regional analysis reveals that eastern China (+0.7‰ to +8.6 ‰), southern Europe (+0.3 ‰ to +2.5 ‰), and Northwest South America (+0.6 ‰ to +2.1 ‰) retain positive changes in future PVpot across all climate scenarios, which may be due to reduced aerosols and cloud cover, suggesting these areas can remain suitable for photovoltaic installations despite climate changes. In contrast, temperature-driven PVpot declines over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (−9.1 ‰ to −4.3 ‰) and northern Africa (−9.3 ‰ to −4.9 ‰) under future high-emission scenarios indicate that these historically advantageous regions will become less suitable for solar energy deployment. The findings underscore that climate changes driven by sustainable development pathways will generate more PVpot in the future for better global warming mitigation.</div><div>摘要</div><div>可再生能源, 特别是太阳能发电对于减缓全球变暖至关重要, 但气候变化会影响太阳能光伏潜力 (PVpot) . 本研究分析了历史 (1985–2014年) 和未来 (2015–2100年) 气候对PVpot的影响, 量化了辐射, 温度和风速的贡献. 从历史上看, 全球PVpot增加了0.42 ‰, 其中中国东部 (+7.1 ‰) 和南欧 (+3.5 ‰) 的增长显著. 到本世纪末, 在SSP1-2.6下, 辐射引起的PVpot增加 (+1.27 ‰) 抵消了温度引起的PVpot损失 (−0.54 ‰) , 从而PVpot增加 (+0.74 ‰). 在SSP2-4.5下, 温度引起的PVpot下降 (−1.50 ‰) 导致最终PVpot减少 (−1.15 ‰) . 在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5中, 辐射引起的 (−1.94 ‰和−1.99 ‰) 和温度引起的PVpot变化 (−2.67 ‰和−3.41 ‰) 共同导致PVpot显著下降 (−4.57 ‰和−5.31 ‰) . 区域分析表明, 中国东部 (+0.7 ‰∼+8.6 ‰) , 南欧 (+0.3 ‰∼+2.5 ‰) 和南美洲西北部 (+0.6 ‰∼+2.1 ‰) 在所有气候情景下的PVpot都保持正变化, 这可能是由于气溶胶和云量减少, 这表明尽管未来气候变化, 这些地区仍然适合安装光伏设备. 相比之下, 在高排放情景下, 青藏高原 (−9.1 ‰∼−4.3 ‰) 和北非 (−9.3‰∼−4.9 ‰) 的光伏发电量因温度升高而下降, 这些历史上有利的地区将不再适合部署太阳能. 本研究结果强调, 可持续发展道路推动的气候变化将在未来产生更多的光伏发电量, 从而更好地减缓全球变暖.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 6","pages":"Article 100619"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144903213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Relationship between the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO and their effect on summer precipitation in China 南印度洋偶极子与ENSO的关系及其对中国夏季降水的影响
IF 3.2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100618
Xingyu Li , Yuanhong Guan , Ran Dong , Qifeng Lu , Yue Zhang , Jiani Zhen
Based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2021, this study explores the spatial distribution of the Southern Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) and its individual and synergistic effects with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on summer precipitation in China. The inverse phase spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the southwest and northeast of the southern Indian Ocean is defined as the SIOD. Positive SIOD events (positive SSTAs in the southwest, negative SSTAs in the northeast) are associated with La Niña events (Central Pacific (CP) type), while negative SIOD events (negative SSTAs in the southwest, positive SSTAs in the northeast) are associated with El Niño events (Eastern Pacific (EP) type). Both SIOD and ENSO have certain impacts on summer precipitation in China. Precipitation in the Yangtze River basin decreases, while precipitation in southern China increases during pure positive SIOD (P_PSIOD) events. During pure negative SIOD (P_NSIOD) events, the changes in precipitation are exactly the opposite of those during P_PSIOD events, which may be due to differences in the cross-equatorial flow in the southern Indian Ocean, particularly in low-level Australian cross-equatorial flow. When positive SIOD and CP-type La Niña events occur simultaneously (PSIOD+La_Niña), precipitation increases in the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin, while it decreases in northern China. When negative SIOD and EP-type El Niño events occur simultaneously (NSIOD+El_Niño), precipitation in the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin is significantly lower than during P_NSIOD events. This is caused by differences in water vapor originating from the Pacific Ocean during different events.
摘要
基于1979年至2021年的再分析数据, 本文探讨了南印度洋偶极子 (SIOD) 的空间分布及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 对中国夏季降水的独立和协同影响. 南印度洋西南部和东北部海表面温度异常 (SSTAs) 的反相位空间分布被定义为 SIOD. 正SIOD事件 (西南部正SSTAs, 东北部负SSTAs) 多伴随La Niña事件, 且主要为中太平洋 (CP) 型; 而负SIOD事件 (西南部负SSTAs, 东北部正SSTAs) 则多伴随El Niño事件, 且主要为东太平洋 (EP) 型. SIOD和ENSO对中国夏季降水均有一定影响. 纯正SIOD (P_PSIOD) 事件期间, 长江流域降水减少, 而华南降水增加. 纯负SIOD (P_NSIOD) 事件期间, 降水变化与P_PSIOD事件相反, 这可能与越赤道气流 (特别是澳大利亚低空越赤道气流) 有关. 当正SIOD与CP型La Niña事件同时发生时 (PSIOD+La_Niña), 江淮流域降水增加, 而华北降水减少. 当负SIOD与EP型El Niño事件同时发生时 (NSIOD+El_Niño), 江淮流域降水明显低于P_NSIOD事件期间, 这主要归因于不同事件背景下太平洋水汽输送的差异.
利用1979 ~ 2021年的再分析资料,探讨了南印度洋偶极子(SIOD)的空间分布及其与El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)对中国夏季降水的单独和协同效应。将南印度洋西南部和东北部海温异常的逆相空间分布定义为SIOD。正SIOD事件(西南SSTAs为正,东北SSTAs为负)与La Niña事件(中太平洋(CP)型)相关,而负SIOD事件(西南SSTAs为负,东北SSTAs为正)与El Niño事件(东太平洋(EP)型)相关。SIOD和ENSO对中国夏季降水都有一定的影响。在纯正SIOD (P_PSIOD)事件中,长江流域降水减少,华南降水增加。在纯负SIOD (P_NSIOD)事件期间,降水变化与P_PSIOD事件完全相反,这可能是由于南印度洋跨赤道气流的差异,特别是低层澳大利亚跨赤道气流的差异。当正SIOD和cp型La Niña事件同时发生(PSIOD+La_Niña)时,长江-淮河流域降水增加,华北降水减少。当负SIOD和ep型El Niño事件同时发生(NSIOD+El_Niño)时,长江-淮河流域降水显著低于P_NSIOD事件。这是由不同事件期间源自太平洋的水蒸气的差异造成的。摘要基于1979年至2021年的再分析数据,本文探讨了南印度洋偶极子(SIOD)的空间分布及其与厄尔尼诺——南方涛动(ENSO)对中国夏季降水的独立和协同影响。SIOD: SIOD: SIOD: SIOD正SIOD事件(西南部正SSTAs,东北部负SSTAs)多伴随拉尼娜事件,且主要为中太平洋(CP)型;而负SIOD事件(西南部负SSTAs,东北部正SSTAs)则多伴随厄尔尼诺事件,且主要为东太平洋(EP)型。【中文翻译】“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”纯负SIOD (P_NSIOD)事件期间,降水变化与P_PSIOD事件相反,这可能与越赤道气流(特别是澳大利亚低空越赤道气流)有关。当正SIOD与CP型拉尼娜事件同时发生时(PSIOD + La_Nina),江淮流域降水增加,而华北降水减少。当负SIOD与EP型厄尔尼诺事件同时发生时(NSIOD + El_Nino),江淮流域降水明显低于P_NSIOD事件期间,这主要归因于不同事件背景下太平洋水汽输送的差异。
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引用次数: 0
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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
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