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Long-term variations of the solar energy in different subregions of Northwest China and associated mechanisms 中国西北不同次区域太阳能的长期变化及相关机制
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100515
Junhui Yu , Hui Ma , Shen-Ming Fu , Xiaoling Su , Xiqiang Chang , Yanan Fu
As a type of clean and pollution-free energy source, solar energy plays an important role in achieving the goals of carbon neutrality and global sustainable development. Northwest China occupies an important position in the national energy strategy due to its rich solar energy. Clarifying the long-term variations of Northwest China's solar energy and understanding the associated mechanisms are crucial to improving the layout of new energy sources and the usage efficiency of solar energy within China. In this study, the authors first divide Northwest China into northwestern and southeastern sections by conducting a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis on the surface solar radiation (SSR) from 1993 to 2022, and then explore the SSR's variation trends and associated mechanisms within these subregions. It is found that the two subregions, both of which show a significant feature of decadal change, differ notably in their long-term trends: the northwestern section shows a significant increasing trend of ∼8.1 kJ m−2 yr−1 in the annual mean SSR, and in each season the SSR increases significantly, with a maximum/minimum increasing rate of ∼11.2/∼4.6 kJ m−2 yr−1 appearing in summer/autumn. A possible mechanism for the SSR's increasing trend is that global warming results in a lower relative humidity within the northwestern section, which decreases the total cloud cover, as it is harder for the atmosphere to reach saturation state. A decreasing total cloud cover results in an increasing SSR within the northwestern section. In contrast, the southeastern section shows no significant trend in annual mean SSR, as the SSRs in summer and autumn show significant decreasing trends, whereas the trends in spring and winter are not significant.
摘要
作为一种清洁无污染的新能源, 太阳能对于实现碳中和及可持续发展的目标至关重要. 西北地区太阳能资源丰富, 在我国能源战略中占据着重要地位. 厘清西北地区太阳能的长期变化趋势并揭示其可能的内在机理有助于改善我国的新能源布局并提高太阳能的利用效率. 鉴于此, 作者首先对1993年至2022年的地表太阳辐射 (SSR) 进行了旋转经验正交函数分析, 将西北地区划分为西北和东南两个分区, 然后分别研究了这些分区内SSR的变化趋势和相关机制. 研究发现, 在西北地区的两个分区内, SSR均表现出显著的年代际变化特征, 但两个分区内的SSR趋势存在显著不同. 对于西北分区而言, 其年平均SSR呈现出显著的增长趋势 (增速约为8.1 kJ m−2 yr−1), 在每个季节, 其季节平均的SSR都显著增加, 最大与最小增速分别为11.2 (夏季) 和4.6 kJ m−2 yr−1 (秋季). 该区域内SSR增加趋势的一个可能机制是, 全球变暖导致该区域内相对湿度较低, 所以大气更难达到饱和状态, 这直接导致该区域内的总云量减少; 总云量的减少使得云对太阳短波辐射的反射, 散射和吸收减弱, 因此, 该区域内SSR增加. 对于东南分区而言, 由于其夏季和秋季的SSR呈显著的下降趋势, 而春季和冬季的SSR趋势并不显著, 所以该区域内年平均的SSR没有显著的线性趋势.
太阳能作为一种清洁无污染的能源,在实现碳中和和全球可持续发展的目标中发挥着重要作用。西北地区太阳能资源丰富,在国家能源战略中占有重要地位。厘清西北地区太阳能的长期变化规律及其机制,对优化新能源布局和提高太阳能利用效率具有重要意义。本文首先通过对1993 - 2022年中国西北地区地表太阳辐射(SSR)的旋转经验正交函数分析,将西北地区划分为西北和东南两个区域,并探讨了这两个区域内的SSR变化趋势及其相关机制。结果表明,两亚区均表现出显著的年代际变化特征,但其长期趋势存在显著差异:西北段的年平均SSR显著增加,为~ 8.1 kJ m−2 yr−1,且各季节SSR显著增加,最大/最小增幅为~ 11.2/ ~ 4.6 kJ m−2 yr−1,出现在夏季/秋季。SSR增加的可能机制是全球变暖导致西北段相对湿度降低,使总云量减少,使大气较难达到饱和状态。总云量减少导致西北剖面SSR增加。东南段的年平均SSR变化趋势不显著,夏季和秋季的SSR变化趋势显著,而春季和冬季的SSR变化趋势不显著。摘要作为一种清洁无污染的新能源, 太阳能对于实现碳中和及可持续发展的目标至关重要. 西北地区太阳能资源丰富, 在我国能源战略中占据着重要地位. 厘清西北地区太阳能的长期变化趋势并揭示其可能的内在机理有助于改善我国的新能源布局并提高太阳能的利用效率. 鉴于此,作者首先对1993年至2022年的地表太阳辐射(SSR)进行了旋转经验正交函数分析,将西北地区划分为西北和东南两个分区,然后分别研究了这些分区内SSR的变化趋势和相关机制。研究发现,在西北地区的两个分区内,SSR均表现出显著的年代际变化特征,但两个分区内的SSR趋势存在显著不同。对于西北分区而言,其年平均SSR呈现出显著的增长趋势(增速约为8.1 kJ m−2年−1),在每个季节,其季节平均的SSR都显著增加,最大与最小增速分别为11.2(夏季)和4.6 kJ m−2年−1(秋季)。该区域内SSR增加趋势的一个可能机制是,全球变暖导致该区域内相对湿度较低,所以大气更难达到饱和状态,这直接导致该区域内的总云量减少;。对于东南分区而言,由于其夏季和秋季的SSR呈显著的下降趋势,而春季和冬季的SSR趋势并不显著,所以该区域内年平均的SSR没有显著的线性趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Effects of solar radiation modification on the ocean carbon cycle: An earth system modeling study” Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letter 15 (2022) 100187 “太阳辐射变化对海洋碳循环的影响:地球系统模拟研究”大气与海洋科学通报15 (2022)100187
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100418
Xiaoyu Jin, Long Cao, Jingyu Zhang
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引用次数: 0
Construction and characteristic analysis of background error covariance coupled with land surface temperature 地表温度耦合背景误差协方差的构建与特征分析
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100512
Qihang Yang , Yaodeng Chen , Luyao Qin , Yuanbing Wang , Deming Meng , Xusheng Yan , Xinyao Qian
Land surface temperature (LST) is the key variable in land–atmosphere interaction, having an important impact on weather and climate forecasting. However, achieving consistent analysis of LST and the atmosphere in assimilation is quite challenging. This is because there is limited knowledge about the cross-component background error covariance (BEC) between LST and atmospheric state variables. This study aims to clarify whether there is a relationship between the error of LST and atmospheric variables, and whether this relationship varies spatially and temporally. To this end, the BEC coupled with atmospheric variables and LST was constructed (LST-BEC), and its characteristics were analyzed based on the 2023 mei-yu season. The general characteristics of LST-BEC show that the LST is mainly correlated with the atmospheric temperature and the correlation decreases gradually with a rise in atmospheric height, and the error standard deviation of the LST is noticeably larger than that of the low-level atmospheric temperature. The spatiotemporal characteristics of LST-BEC on the heavy-rain day and light-rain day show that the error correlation and error standard deviation of LST and low-level atmospheric temperature and humidity are closely related to the weather background, and also have obvious diurnal variations. These results provide valuable information for strongly coupled land–atmosphere assimilation.
摘要
地表温度 (LST) 是涉及陆气相互作用的关键变量, 对天气气候预报具有重要影响. 不过在同化中实现LST与大气的协调分析却并不容易. 这是因为目前对跨陆气圈层的背景误差协方差 (BEC) 的了解较少. 本文旨在探究LST与大气的背景误差是否存在联系, 以及这种联系是否存在时空变化. 为此, 本研究构建了耦合大气变量和LST的BEC, 并基于2023年梅雨季分析了其特征. 总体特征表明: LST误差主要与大气温度相关; 随着大气高度的上升, 误差相关性逐渐减小; LST误差的标准差明显大于低层大气温度. “多雨日”和“少雨日”的时空特征表明, LST与低层大气温湿度误差的相关性及标准差均与天气背景密切相关, 且具有明显的昼夜变化. 上述结果可为后续陆气强耦合同化提供参考.
地表温度是陆-气相互作用的关键变量,对天气和气候预报具有重要影响。然而,在同化过程中实现地表温度和大气的一致性分析是相当具有挑战性的。这是因为对地表温度和大气状态变量之间的跨分量背景误差协方差(BEC)的认识有限。本研究旨在阐明地表温度误差与大气变量之间是否存在关系,以及这种关系在时空上是否存在变化。为此,构建了与大气变量和地表温度耦合的BEC (LST-BEC),并基于2023年梅雨季节对其特征进行了分析。LST- bec的总体特征表明,LST主要与大气温度相关,随着大气高度的升高,相关性逐渐减弱,其误差标准差明显大于低层大气温度。暴雨日和小雨日LST- bec的时空特征表明,LST与低层大气温湿度的误差相关性和误差标准差与天气背景密切相关,且具有明显的日变化特征。这些结果为强耦合陆-气同化研究提供了有价值的信息。(1)、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、、【中文译文】“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”“”(1)、(1)、(1)、(1)、(1)、(1)、(2)、(2)★★★★★★★随着大气高度的上升, 误差相关性逐渐减小; 【中文译文】“多雨日”和“少雨日”的时空特征表明,低水位体系域与低层大气温湿度误差的相关性及标准差均与天气背景密切相关,且具有明显的昼夜变化。上述结果可为后续陆气强耦合同化提供参考.
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引用次数: 0
Physical characteristics of convective and non-convective cirrus clouds from CALIPSO data over the South China Sea 从中国南海上空的 CALIPSO 数据得出的对流和非对流卷云的物理特征
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100510
Haorui Weng , Yong Han , Ximing Deng , Li Dong , Yan Liu
Studying the characteristics and mechanisms of convective and non-convective cirrus clouds over the South China Sea is vital for their impact on regional climate dynamics, and enhancing predictive models for weather and climate forecasts. This study utilizes eight years of CALIPSO data (from March 2007 to February 2015) to investigate convective and non-convective cirrus clouds. Explicit new insights include the observation that convective cirrus cloud samples are three times more numerous than non-convective cirrus clouds. Convective cirrus clouds are associated with humid conditions and demonstrate higher ice water content (IWC) values ranging from 10−3 to 10−1 g m−3, whereas non-convective cirrus clouds tend to be drier, exhibiting IWC values ranging from 10−4 to 10−3 g m−3. Both cirrus cloud types exhibit a maximum cloud fraction at 10°N. Convective cirrus reach their peak cloud fraction at an altitude of 14 km, while non-convective cirrus typically occur at altitudes between 15 and 16 km. The seasonal variability of the convective cirrus cloud fraction primarily reflects bottom-up positive specific humidity anomalies originating from convective activity, whereas the non-convective cirrus cloud fraction is influenced by top-down negative temperature anomalies.
摘要
南海是陆地, 海洋和大气相互作用强烈的区域, 在此背景下, 深对流活动对于卷云的形成和维持至关重要. 然而, 关于该区域对流性和非对流性卷云物理特征的研究十分有限. 本文基于2007–2015年的CALIPSO数据对南海地区的对流性和非对流性卷云进行了研究. 结果表明, 对流性卷云的样本数是非对流性卷云的三倍; 对流性卷云表现出较高的冰水含量 (IWC) 并伴随着潮湿的环境条件, 而非对流性卷云的冰水含量较低; 此外, 进一步的分析揭示了对流性卷云和非对流性卷云的云量呈现出不同的垂直分布, 对流性卷云的最大云量出现在14 km, 而非对流性卷云则出现在15–16 km; 最后, 阐明了驱动两种类型卷云云量的季节性变化机制, 对流性卷云云量的季节性变化主要受自下而上的正比湿异常影响, 而非对流性卷云则受自上而下的负温度异常驱动.
研究南海对流和非对流卷云的特征和机制,对其影响区域气候动力学,完善天气和气候预报模式具有重要意义。本研究利用8年的CALIPSO数据(从2007年3月到2015年2月)来研究对流和非对流卷云。明确的新见解包括观察到对流卷云样本比非对流卷云多三倍。对流卷云与潮湿条件有关,表现出较高的冰水含量(IWC)值,范围从10−3到10−1 g m−3,而非对流卷云往往更干燥,其IWC值范围从10−4到10−3 g m−3。两种卷云类型在北纬10°时云分数最大。对流卷云在14公里的高度达到其云分数的峰值,而非对流卷云通常发生在15至16公里的高度。对流卷云分数的季节变化主要反映由对流活动引起的自下而上的正比湿度异常,而非对流卷云分数则受自上而下的负温度异常的影响。摘要南海是陆地, 海洋和大气相互作用强烈的区域, 在此背景下, 深对流活动对于卷云的形成和维持至关重要. 然而, 关于该区域对流性和非对流性卷云物理特征的研究十分有限. “”“”“”“”“”“”结果表明, 对流性卷云的样本数是非对流性卷云的三倍; 对流性卷云表现出较高的冰水含量(IWC)并伴随着潮湿的环境条件,而非对流性卷云的冰水含量较低;此外,进一步的分析揭示了对流性卷云和非对流性卷云的云量呈现出不同的垂直分布,对流性卷云的最大云量出现在14公里,而非对流性卷云则出现在15 - 16公里;最后, 阐明了驱动两种类型卷云云量的季节性变化机制, 对流性卷云云量的季节性变化主要受自下而上的正比湿异常影响, 而非对流性卷云则受自上而下的负温度异常驱动.
{"title":"Physical characteristics of convective and non-convective cirrus clouds from CALIPSO data over the South China Sea","authors":"Haorui Weng ,&nbsp;Yong Han ,&nbsp;Ximing Deng ,&nbsp;Li Dong ,&nbsp;Yan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100510","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100510","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Studying the characteristics and mechanisms of convective and non-convective cirrus clouds over the South China Sea is vital for their impact on regional climate dynamics, and enhancing predictive models for weather and climate forecasts. This study utilizes eight years of CALIPSO data (from March 2007 to February 2015) to investigate convective and non-convective cirrus clouds. Explicit new insights include the observation that convective cirrus cloud samples are three times more numerous than non-convective cirrus clouds. Convective cirrus clouds are associated with humid conditions and demonstrate higher ice water content (IWC) values ranging from 10<sup>−3</sup> to 10<sup>−1</sup> g m<sup>−3</sup>, whereas non-convective cirrus clouds tend to be drier, exhibiting IWC values ranging from 10<sup>−4</sup> to 10<sup>−3</sup> g m<sup>−3</sup>. Both cirrus cloud types exhibit a maximum cloud fraction at 10°N. Convective cirrus reach their peak cloud fraction at an altitude of 14 km, while non-convective cirrus typically occur at altitudes between 15 and 16 km. The seasonal variability of the convective cirrus cloud fraction primarily reflects bottom-up positive specific humidity anomalies originating from convective activity, whereas the non-convective cirrus cloud fraction is influenced by top-down negative temperature anomalies.</div><div>摘要</div><div>南海是陆地, 海洋和大气相互作用强烈的区域, 在此背景下, 深对流活动对于卷云的形成和维持至关重要. 然而, 关于该区域对流性和非对流性卷云物理特征的研究十分有限. 本文基于2007–2015年的CALIPSO数据对南海地区的对流性和非对流性卷云进行了研究. 结果表明, 对流性卷云的样本数是非对流性卷云的三倍; 对流性卷云表现出较高的冰水含量 (IWC) 并伴随着潮湿的环境条件, 而非对流性卷云的冰水含量较低; 此外, 进一步的分析揭示了对流性卷云和非对流性卷云的云量呈现出不同的垂直分布, 对流性卷云的最大云量出现在14 km, 而非对流性卷云则出现在15–16 km; 最后, 阐明了驱动两种类型卷云云量的季节性变化机制, 对流性卷云云量的季节性变化主要受自下而上的正比湿异常影响, 而非对流性卷云则受自上而下的负温度异常驱动.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 3","pages":"Article 100510"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140765886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal characteristics of Universal Thermal Climate Index during five-year return period extreme heat events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region 京津冀地区5年重现期极端高温事件通用热气候指数时空特征
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100612
Yiguo Xu , Liqing Tian , Tingru Cui , Jun Zhang , Hui Zhang , Yating Wang , Rui Wang
Frequent extreme heat events exacerbated by global warming pose a significant threat to human health. However, the dynamic changes in human thermal comfort during such regional extremes remain understudied. This study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) during 5-year return period extreme heat events across the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region of China, utilizing 40 years of meteorological data from 174 stations. A non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution model with a location parameter link function was identified as the optimal model (for 65.3 % of stations) through the Akaike Information Criterion, capturing 16 regional extreme heat events. Results indicate that extreme heat thresholds rise with increasing return periods, with the highest thresholds concentrated around Beijing and Shijiazhuang. Air temperature and mean radiant temperature were found to be the dominant factors influencing UTCI, with daytime air temperature contributing 47.03 % to 50.64 % and nighttime mean radiant temperature contributing up to 48.55 %. Spatially, “extreme heat stress” conditions, as defined by UTCI, were predominantly observed in the southeastern plains of Beijing and southern Hebei Province. Diurnally, UTCI peaked between 1200 and 1600 BT (Beijing time), generally returning to “no heat stress” levels across most areas between 0000 and 0600 BT. These findings provide crucial insights into the dynamics of human thermal comfort during extreme heat events in the BTH region, offering valuable scientific support for developing targeted heat mitigation and adaptation strategies.
摘要
本研究旨在探讨京津冀地区五年一遇极端高温事件期间通用热气候指数的时空特征, 弥补极端高温条件下人类热舒适度动态变化研究的不足. 基于40年174站点数据, 采用非平稳广义极值 (GEV) 分布模型, 通过赤池信息准则选取最优模型, 识别出16次极端高温事件. 结果表明, 极端高温阈值随重现期延长而升高, 北京, 石家庄周边最高. 气温和平均辐射温度是UTCI主导因素, 极端高温热应力主要分布于北京东南部平原及河北南部, UTCI在12至16时达峰值, 00至06时降至“无热应力”水平. 本研究为高温应对提供了科学支撑.
全球变暖加剧了极端高温事件的频繁发生,对人类健康构成了重大威胁。然而,在这种区域极端情况下,人类热舒适的动态变化仍未得到充分研究。利用40年174个台站的气象资料,研究了中国京津冀地区5年回归期极端高温事件的通用热气候指数(UTCI)时空特征。通过赤池信息准则,选取了16个区域极端热事件,确定了具有位置参数链接函数的非平稳广义极值分布模型为最优模型(适用于65.3%的站点)。结果表明:极端高温阈值随回归期的增加而升高,最高阈值集中在北京和石家庄附近;气温和平均辐射温度是影响UTCI的主要因素,其中白天气温对UTCI的贡献率为47.03% ~ 50.64%,夜间平均辐射温度对UTCI的贡献率高达48.55%。在空间上,UTCI定义的“极端热应激”条件主要出现在北京东南部平原和河北省南部。在北京时间1200 - 1600 BT之间,UTCI达到峰值,在0000 - 0600 BT之间,大部分地区普遍恢复到“无热应激”水平。这些发现为研究北京地区极端高温事件期间人类热舒适的动态提供了重要见解,为制定有针对性的热缓解和适应策略提供了有价值的科学支持。摘要本研究旨在探讨京津冀地区五年一遇极端高温事件期间通用热气候指数的时空特征, 弥补极端高温条件下人类热舒适度动态变化研究的不足. 基于174年站点数据,采用非平稳广义极值(GEV)分布模型,通过赤池信息准则选取最优模型,识别出16次极端高温事件。结果表明, 极端高温阈值随重现期延长而升高, 北京, 石家庄周边最高. 气温和平均辐射温度是UTCI主导因素,极端高温热应力主要分布于北京东南部平原及河北南部,UTCI在12至16时达峰值,00至06时降至“无热应力”水平。本研究为高温应对提供了科学支撑.
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “A cloud optical and microphysical property product for the advanced geosynchronous radiation imager onboard China's Fengyun-4 satellites: The first version” [Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 16 (2023) 100337] “用于中国风云四号卫星先进地球同步辐射成像仪的云光学和微物理特性产品:第一版”的勘误表[大气与海洋科学快报16 (2023)100337]
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100421
Chao Liu , Yuxing Song , Ganning Zhou , Shiwen Teng , Bo Li , Na Xu , Feng Lu , Peng Zhang
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引用次数: 0
A maximum sea surface salinity tongue in the North Brazil continental shelf 北巴西大陆架的最大海面盐度舌
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100521
Maria Cadima , Paola Castellanos , Estrella Olmedo , Joaquim Dias , Edmo J.D. Campos
The variability of the sea surface salinity measurements provided by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission reveals the presence of a local salinity maximum (a salty tongue) in the northwestern tropical Atlantic. The sea surface salinity positive anomaly starts increasing in July, reaches its maximum in January, and then disappears. The local maximum of salinity appears in the late boreal autumn/winter, when the Amazon discharge is minimal and the salty water from the South Atlantic is transported by the North Brazil Current along the shelf break across the equator. The authors validate the satellite observations in this area and assess the vertical structure of the salinity maximum by using in situ measurements and an in situ-interpolated product.
土壤湿度和海洋盐度任务提供的海洋表面盐度测量的变异性揭示了热带大西洋西北部存在局部盐度最大值(咸舌)。海面盐度正异常从7月开始增加,1月达到最大值,然后消失。局部盐度最大值出现在北方寒带秋冬后期,此时亚马孙流量最小,南大西洋的咸水被北巴西洋流沿大陆架断裂输送到赤道。作者对该地区的卫星观测结果进行了验证,并利用现场测量和现场插值结果对盐度最大值的垂直结构进行了评价。
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引用次数: 0
Improving subseasonal forecasting of East Asian monsoon precipitation with deep learning 利用深度学习改进东亚季风降水分季节预报
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100520
Jiahui Zhou , Fei Liu
Accurate subseasonal forecasting of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is crucial, as it directly impacts the livelihoods of billions. However, the prediction skill of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) models for precipitation remains limited. In this study, the authors developed a convolutional neural network (CNN) regression model to enhance the prediction skill for weekly EASM precipitation by utilizing the more reliably predicted circulation fields from dynamic models. The outcomes of the CNN model are promising, as it led to a 14 % increase in the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), from 0.30 to 0.35, and a 22 % reduction in the root-mean-square error (RMSE), from 3.22 to 2.52, for predicting the weekly EASM precipitation index at a leading time of one week. Among the S2S models, the improvement in prediction skill through CNN correction depends on the model's performance in accurately predicting circulation fields. The CNN correction of EASM precipitation index can only rectify the systematic errors of the model and is independent of whether the each grid point or the entire area-averaged index is corrected. Furthermore, u200 (200-hPa zonal wind) is identified as the most important variable for efficient correction.
摘要
东亚夏季风(EASM)降水的准确次季节预报至关重要, 因为它直接影响着数十亿人的生计. 然而, 最先进的次季节-季节(S2S)预测模型的预测技巧仍然有限. 本研究开发了一种卷积神经网络(CNN)回归模型, 通过利用动力预测模型预测的更可靠的环流场来提高EASM周降水的预测技巧. 经过CNN模型的订正, 在提前一周预测EASM降水指数时, 11个S2S模式的平均距平相关系数从增加了14 %, 从0.30增加到0.35; 均方根误差减少了22 %, 从3.22减少到2.52. 在这些S2S模式中, 通过CNN订正对预测技巧的提高程度取决于模式在准确预测大气环流变量方面的表现. 对EASM降水指数的CNN订正只能订正模式的系统误差, 与逐个网格订正还是整个区域平均指数订正无关, 并且在不同的提前期内CNN的订正效果基本不变. 此外, 200hPa纬向风被认为是有效订正的最重要变量.
东亚夏季风(EASM)降水的准确分季节预报至关重要,因为它直接影响数十亿人的生计。然而,目前最先进的亚季节-季节(S2S)模式对降水的预测能力仍然有限。本文通过建立卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network, CNN)回归模型,利用较可靠的动态模式预报环流场,提高对EASM周降水的预报能力。CNN模型的预测结果是有希望的,因为它导致异常相关系数(ACC)增加14%,从0.30到0.35,均方根误差(RMSE)减少22%,从3.22到2.52,在一周的领先时间预测EASM周降水指数。在S2S模型中,通过CNN校正预测技能的提高取决于模型在准确预测环流场方面的表现。CNN对EASM降水指数的校正只能对模型的系统误差进行校正,与是对每个格点还是对整个面积平均指数进行校正无关。此外,u200 (200 hpa纬向风)被确定为有效校正的最重要变量。笨笨,笨笨,笨笨,笨笨,笨笨,笨笨,笨笨,笨笨。本研究开发了一种卷积神经网络(CNN)回归模型,通过利用动力预测模型预测的更可靠的环流场来提高EASM周降水的预测技巧。经过CNN模型的订正,在提前一周预测EASM降水指数时,11个s2模式的平均距平相关系数从增加了14%,从0.30增加到0.35;★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★★在这些s2模式中,通过CNN订正对预测技巧的提高程度取决于模式在准确预测大气环流变量方面的表现。对EASM降水指数的CNN订正只能订正模式的系统误差,与逐个网格订正还是整个区域平均指数订正无关,并且在不同的提前期内CNN的订正效果基本不变。笨笨,笨笨,笨笨
{"title":"Improving subseasonal forecasting of East Asian monsoon precipitation with deep learning","authors":"Jiahui Zhou ,&nbsp;Fei Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100520","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100520","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate subseasonal forecasting of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation is crucial, as it directly impacts the livelihoods of billions. However, the prediction skill of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) models for precipitation remains limited. In this study, the authors developed a convolutional neural network (CNN) regression model to enhance the prediction skill for weekly EASM precipitation by utilizing the more reliably predicted circulation fields from dynamic models. The outcomes of the CNN model are promising, as it led to a 14 % increase in the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), from 0.30 to 0.35, and a 22 % reduction in the root-mean-square error (RMSE), from 3.22 to 2.52, for predicting the weekly EASM precipitation index at a leading time of one week. Among the S2S models, the improvement in prediction skill through CNN correction depends on the model's performance in accurately predicting circulation fields. The CNN correction of EASM precipitation index can only rectify the systematic errors of the model and is independent of whether the each grid point or the entire area-averaged index is corrected. Furthermore, u200 (200-hPa zonal wind) is identified as the most important variable for efficient correction.</div><div>摘要</div><div>东亚夏季风(EASM)降水的准确次季节预报至关重要, 因为它直接影响着数十亿人的生计. 然而, 最先进的次季节-季节(S2S)预测模型的预测技巧仍然有限. 本研究开发了一种卷积神经网络(CNN)回归模型, 通过利用动力预测模型预测的更可靠的环流场来提高EASM周降水的预测技巧. 经过CNN模型的订正, 在提前一周预测EASM降水指数时, 11个S2S模式的平均距平相关系数从增加了14 %, 从0.30增加到0.35; 均方根误差减少了22 %, 从3.22减少到2.52. 在这些S2S模式中, 通过CNN订正对预测技巧的提高程度取决于模式在准确预测大气环流变量方面的表现. 对EASM降水指数的CNN订正只能订正模式的系统误差, 与逐个网格订正还是整个区域平均指数订正无关, 并且在不同的提前期内CNN的订正效果基本不变. 此外, 200hPa纬向风被认为是有效订正的最重要变量.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 3","pages":"Article 100520"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global fire PM2.5 during 2000–2023 El Niño-Southern振荡对2000-2023年全球火灾PM2.5的影响
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100597
Yonghang Hu, Xu Yue, Chenguang Tian
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global climate variability, profoundly influencing regional fire activities and associated pollutant emissions. This study investigates the impacts of ENSO on global fire emissions and fire-induced PM2.5 concentrations in 2000–2023. During El Niño events, global fire emissions increase by 5.9 %–20.0 % with regional hotspots in Indonesia, North America, and Australia, driven by anomalous warming and rainfall deficits. In contrast, La Niña events result in a 3.2 %–9.9 % reduction in global fire emissions, with regional variability depending on the fire inventories used. In response, fire-induced PM2.5 concentrations increase substantially during El Niño, rising by 27.5 %–71.0 % in Indonesia, 49.2 %–116.5 % in North America, and 17.5 %–42.6 % in Australia. Conversely, La Niña events lead to decreases of 26.6 %–52.5 %, 19.4 %–37.3 %, 14.5 %–24.4 % in these regions, respectively. These findings highlight the critical role of ENSO in shaping fire emissions and air pollution from regional to global scales, providing valuable insights for mitigating the impacts of climatic extremes on air quality.
摘要
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 是全球气候变化的主要驱动因素, 对区域火灾活动及其相关污染物排放有深远影响. 本研究分析了2000–2023年期间ENSO对全球火灾排放及火灾引起的PM2.5浓度的影响. 在厄尔尼诺事件期间, 由于异常增温和降水不足, 全球火灾排放增加5.9 %−20.0 %, 其中印度尼西亚, 北美和澳大利亚为火排放增幅最显著地区. 相比之下, 拉尼娜事件期间全球火灾排放减少3.2 %−9.9 %, 具体变化取决于所使用的火灾排放清单.在此背景下, 火灾引起的PM2.5浓度在厄尔尼诺事件期间显著增加, 印度尼西亚增加27.5 %−71.0 %, 北美增加49.2 %−116.5 %, 澳大利亚增加17.5 %−42.6 %; 而在拉尼娜事件期间, 这些地区的PM2.5浓度分别减少26.6 %−52.5 %, 19.4 %−37.3 %和14.5 %−24.4 %. 研究结果表明, ENSO从区域到全球尺度上深刻影响着火排放和空气污染物浓度, 相关结论为减缓极端气候事件对空气质量的影响提供了重要的科学依据.
El Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)是全球气候变率的关键驱动因素,深刻影响区域火灾活动和相关污染物排放。本文研究了2000-2023年ENSO对全球火灾排放和火灾诱发PM2.5浓度的影响。在厄尔尼诺Niño事件期间,由于异常变暖和降水不足,全球火灾排放量增加了5.9% - 20.0%,其中印度尼西亚、北美和澳大利亚是区域热点。相比之下,La Niña事件导致全球火灾排放量减少3.2% - 9.9%,区域差异取决于所使用的火灾清单。因此,火灾引起的PM2.5浓度在厄尔尼诺Niño期间大幅增加,印度尼西亚上升27.5% - 71.0%,北美上升49.2% - 116.5%,澳大利亚上升17.5% - 42.6%。相反,La Niña事件在这些地区分别导致26.6% - 52.5%、19.4% - 37.3%、14.5% - 24.4%的下降。这些发现强调了ENSO在从区域到全球范围内塑造火灾排放和空气污染方面的关键作用,为减轻极端气候对空气质量的影响提供了有价值的见解。摘要厄尔尼诺——南方涛动(ENSO)是全球气候变化的主要驱动因素,对区域火灾活动及其相关污染物排放有深远影响。。在厄尔尼诺事件期间,由于异常增温和降水不足,全球火灾排放增加5.9%−20.0%,其中印度尼西亚、北美和澳大利亚为火排放增幅最显著地区。相比之下,拉尼娜事件期间全球火灾排放减少3.2%−9.9%,具体变化取决于所使用的火灾排放清单。在此背景下,火灾引起的PM2.5浓度在厄尔尼诺事件期间显著增加,印度尼西亚增加27.5%−71.0%,北美增加49.2%−116.5%,澳大利亚增加17.5%−42.6%;而在拉尼娜事件期间,这些地区的PM2.5浓度分别减少26.6%−52.5%,19.4%−−24.4% 37.3%和14.5%。研究结果表明,ENSO从区域到全球尺度上深刻影响着火排放和空气污染物浓度,相关结论为减缓极端气候事件对空气质量的影响提供了重要的科学依据。
{"title":"Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global fire PM2.5 during 2000–2023","authors":"Yonghang Hu,&nbsp;Xu Yue,&nbsp;Chenguang Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aosl.2025.100597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of global climate variability, profoundly influencing regional fire activities and associated pollutant emissions. This study investigates the impacts of ENSO on global fire emissions and fire-induced PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations in 2000–2023. During El Niño events, global fire emissions increase by 5.9 %–20.0 % with regional hotspots in Indonesia, North America, and Australia, driven by anomalous warming and rainfall deficits. In contrast, La Niña events result in a 3.2 %–9.9 % reduction in global fire emissions, with regional variability depending on the fire inventories used. In response, fire-induced PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations increase substantially during El Niño, rising by 27.5 %–71.0 % in Indonesia, 49.2 %–116.5 % in North America, and 17.5 %–42.6 % in Australia. Conversely, La Niña events lead to decreases of 26.6 %–52.5 %, 19.4 %–37.3 %, 14.5 %–24.4 % in these regions, respectively. These findings highlight the critical role of ENSO in shaping fire emissions and air pollution from regional to global scales, providing valuable insights for mitigating the impacts of climatic extremes on air quality.</div><div>摘要</div><div>厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 是全球气候变化的主要驱动因素, 对区域火灾活动及其相关污染物排放有深远影响. 本研究分析了2000–2023年期间ENSO对全球火灾排放及火灾引起的PM<sub>2.5</sub>浓度的影响. 在厄尔尼诺事件期间, 由于异常增温和降水不足, 全球火灾排放增加5.9 %−20.0 %, 其中印度尼西亚, 北美和澳大利亚为火排放增幅最显著地区. 相比之下, 拉尼娜事件期间全球火灾排放减少3.2 %−9.9 %, 具体变化取决于所使用的火灾排放清单.在此背景下, 火灾引起的PM<sub>2.5</sub>浓度在厄尔尼诺事件期间显著增加, 印度尼西亚增加27.5 %−71.0 %, 北美增加49.2 %−116.5 %, 澳大利亚增加17.5 %−42.6 %; 而在拉尼娜事件期间, 这些地区的PM<sub>2.5</sub>浓度分别减少26.6 %−52.5 %, 19.4 %−37.3 %和14.5 %−24.4 %. 研究结果表明, ENSO从区域到全球尺度上深刻影响着火排放和空气污染物浓度, 相关结论为减缓极端气候事件对空气质量的影响提供了重要的科学依据.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47210,"journal":{"name":"Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters","volume":"18 3","pages":"Article 100597"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Upper-ocean cooling rate of the South China Sea in response to extreme cold surges and weak cold-air invasions 极端寒潮和弱冷空气入侵下的南海上层海洋降温速率
IF 2.3 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100517
Weiwei Zhang , Dongxiao Wang , Marco Y.-T. Leung , Lin Wang , Jinchi Xie , Wen Zhou
Cold-surge events can lead to temperature drops and strong winds, which then leads to upper-ocean cooling and deepening of the mixed-layer depth, as illustrated in previous studies. In this study, based on the temperature drop of Shanwei meteorological station, two extreme cold surges and five weak cold invasions in the South China Sea are simulated using an ocean–atmosphere coupled model to investigate their different impacts on the upper-ocean temperature. The diffusion term contributes to the difference in temperature tendency of the upper 20 m, while the advection term contributes to the positive difference from 20 to 80 m of the offshore region and negative difference from 80 to 160 m. In addition, the significant differences are attributed primarily to the influence of the upper-ocean temperature gradient, which subsequently impacts the advection term and results in notable differences in temperature tendency at depths from 80 to 160 m.
摘要
前人的研究揭示了寒潮事件导致近地气温下降和强风, 也导致上层海洋冷却和混合层深度加深. 本研究根据汕尾气象站的气温变化, 并利用海气耦合模型模拟了南海的两次极端寒流和五次弱冷空气入侵, 研究它们对上层海洋温度变化的不同影响. 研究结果说明了扩散项对上层20米的温度变化差异的贡献, 平流项是导致20至80米的正温度变化差异的主要原因, 平流项也导致80至160米的负温度变化差异. 此外, 这种显著差异主要归因于上层海洋温度梯度的影响, 进而影响平流项, 使80至160米深度的温度变化存在显著差异.
正如之前的研究所表明的那样,寒潮事件会导致温度下降和强风,进而导致上层海洋冷却和混合层深度加深。本文基于汕尾气象站的气温下降,利用海-气耦合模式模拟了南海两次极端冷潮和五次弱冷入侵,探讨了它们对海洋上层温度的不同影响。扩散项对20 m以上的温度趋势差有贡献,而平流项对近海20 ~ 80 m的正差和80 ~ 160 m的负差有贡献。此外,显著差异主要是由于海洋上层温度梯度的影响,后来影响温度平流项和导致显著的差异趋势深度从80到160米。摘要前人的研究揭示了寒潮事件导致近地气温下降和强风,也导致上层海洋冷却和混合层深度加深。本研究根据汕尾气象站的气温变化, 并利用海气耦合模型模拟了南海的两次极端寒流和五次弱冷空气入侵, 研究它们对上层海洋温度变化的不同影响. 研究结果说明了扩散项对上层20米的温度变化差异的贡献, 平流项是导致20至80米的正温度变化差异的主要原因, 平流项也导致80至160米的负温度变化差异. 此外, 这种显著差异主要归因于上层海洋温度梯度的影响, 进而影响平流项, 使80至160米深度的温度变化存在显著差异.
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
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