Kevin S. Dubina, Janie-Lynn Kim, E. Rolen, Michael Rieley
Employment and real output growth are projected to slow from 2019 to 2029. One in four people will be ages 65 and older in 2029, contributing to slower projected growth in the labor force and a continued decline in the labor force participation rate. The aging population is expected to continue to drive strong demand for a variety of healthcare services, with 3.1 million jobs projected to be added in the healthcare and social assistance sector through 2029.
{"title":"Projections overview and highlights, 2019–29","authors":"Kevin S. Dubina, Janie-Lynn Kim, E. Rolen, Michael Rieley","doi":"10.21916/MLR.2020.21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/MLR.2020.21","url":null,"abstract":"Employment and real output growth are projected to slow from 2019 to 2029. One in four people will be ages 65 and older in 2029, contributing to slower projected growth in the labor force and a continued decline in the labor force participation rate. The aging population is expected to continue to drive strong demand for a variety of healthcare services, with 3.1 million jobs projected to be added in the healthcare and social assistance sector through 2029.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43119985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines trends in real average hourly earnings (1982–84 dollars) for all employees from June 2009, the trough of the 2007–09 recession, to December 2019. It looks at real earnings at the total private and major industry levels, with more detailed analysis for select industries. The article analyzes what drove the postrecession growth in real hourly earnings. In particular, it identifies which industries contributed the most to overall earnings growth during the period.
{"title":"Exploring changes in real average hourly earnings, June 2009 to December 2019","authors":"Lawrence F. Doppelt, Shane Haley","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.20","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines trends in real average hourly earnings (1982–84 dollars) for all employees from June 2009, the trough of the 2007–09 recession, to December 2019. It looks at real earnings at the total private and major industry levels, with more detailed analysis for select industries. The article analyzes what drove the postrecession growth in real hourly earnings. In particular, it identifies which industries contributed the most to overall earnings growth during the period.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42358517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The percentage of dual-income households with children under age 18 has been on the rise since the 1960s, surpassing the percentage of father-only-employed households in the 1970s.1 This rise most likely reflects a cultural shift involving women in the workforce. The female labor force participation rate increased from 1960 onward, peaking at 60 percent in 1999.2 Monitoring and analyzing this trend is important, because the expenditure patterns of dual-income households could differ from those of singleincome households, affecting the U.S. economy.
{"title":"Comparing characteristics and selected expenditures of dual- and single-income households with children","authors":"J. Sullivan","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.19","url":null,"abstract":"The percentage of dual-income households with children under age 18 has been on the rise since the 1960s, surpassing the percentage of father-only-employed households in the 1970s.1 This rise most likely reflects a cultural shift involving women in the workforce. The female labor force participation rate increased from 1960 onward, peaking at 60 percent in 1999.2 Monitoring and analyzing this trend is important, because the expenditure patterns of dual-income households could differ from those of singleincome households, affecting the U.S. economy.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46020995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article describes the impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on price changes for food categories within the U S Bureau of Labor Statistics import/export price indexes, producer price indexes, and consumer price indexes In addition, the article assesses the pandemic's impact on price data collection efforts Safety precautions established during the pandemic created data collection challenges for some price indexes more than others
{"title":"The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food price indexes and data collection","authors":"Dave Mead, Karen Ransom, S. B. Reed, S. Sager","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.18","url":null,"abstract":"This article describes the impact the COVID-19 pandemic has had on price changes for food categories within the U S Bureau of Labor Statistics import/export price indexes, producer price indexes, and consumer price indexes In addition, the article assesses the pandemic's impact on price data collection efforts Safety precautions established during the pandemic created data collection challenges for some price indexes more than others","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45342279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using microdata from the Current Employment Statistics survey and the Current Population Survey, I illustrate how the local spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has differentially affected industry employment Industries that are not very telework friendly are more likely to have job loss related to its spread In addition, COVID-19's spread appears to be most correlated with temporary job loss, which could partially explain employment numbers improving slightly in May and June 2020
{"title":"Geographic impact of COVID-19 in BLS surveys by industry","authors":"Michaela Dalton","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.17","url":null,"abstract":"Using microdata from the Current Employment Statistics survey and the Current Population Survey, I illustrate how the local spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has differentially affected industry employment Industries that are not very telework friendly are more likely to have job loss related to its spread In addition, COVID-19's spread appears to be most correlated with temporary job loss, which could partially explain employment numbers improving slightly in May and June 2020","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44636857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the US Producer Price Index using a modified Laspeyres formula that employs fixed quantities as weights but allows prices to vary over time. Having fixed quantities as weights imposes a restriction on substitution in response to relative price change. This paper examines the effects of the substitution restriction by re-estimating select Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) PPIs from 2002 through 2016 on an annual basis using fixed-based Fisher and Tornqvist formulas, both of which allow for substitution. These experimental FD-ID indexes are calculated from annual average values of commodity indexes with weights updated annually. Subsequently, the experimental indexes are compared to the same indexes calculated using the fixed-based Laspeyres formula. The paper will demonstrate that, in general, the experimental FD-ID indexes calculated using formulas that allow for substitution result in lower in index values than those calculated using the Laspeyres formula, implying substitution toward relatively less expensive products.
美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)使用修改后的拉斯佩尔(Laspeyres)公式计算美国生产者价格指数(ppi)，该公式采用固定数量作为权重，但允许价格随时间变化。以固定数量作为权重，限制了对相对价格变化作出反应的替代。本文通过使用基于固定的Fisher和Tornqvist公式重新估计2002年至2016年的选择最终需求-中间需求(FD-ID) ppi(两者都允许替代)，来检验替代限制的影响。这些试验FD-ID指数是根据商品指数的年平均值计算得出的，权重每年更新一次。随后，将实验指标与使用基于固定的Laspeyres公式计算的相同指标进行比较。本文将证明，一般来说，使用允许替代的公式计算的试验性FD-ID指数的指数值低于使用Laspeyres公式计算的指数值，这意味着对相对便宜的产品的替代。
{"title":"Measuring the substitution effect in Producer Price Index goods data: 2002–16","authors":"Jonathan C. Weinhagen","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.16","url":null,"abstract":"The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates the US Producer Price Index using a modified Laspeyres formula that employs fixed quantities as weights but allows prices to vary over time. Having fixed quantities as weights imposes a restriction on substitution in response to relative price change. This paper examines the effects of the substitution restriction by re-estimating select Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) PPIs from 2002 through 2016 on an annual basis using fixed-based Fisher and Tornqvist formulas, both of which allow for substitution. These experimental FD-ID indexes are calculated from annual average values of commodity indexes with weights updated annually. Subsequently, the experimental indexes are compared to the same indexes calculated using the fixed-based Laspeyres formula. The paper will demonstrate that, in general, the experimental FD-ID indexes calculated using formulas that allow for substitution result in lower in index values than those calculated using the Laspeyres formula, implying substitution toward relatively less expensive products.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46313182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using Current Employment Statistics data, this article examines employment for all 50 states and the District from 2007 to 2016 to determine whether an industry composition effect slowed the post-Great Recession recovery of six states—Alabama, Connecticut, Mississippi, New Mexico, West Virginia, and Wyoming. The industry composition of these states was analyzed first at a macrolevel (from goods producing to service providing) and then at a more detailed industry supersector level. Based on industry shares over a decade, the industry composition of the six states that were slower to recover was little different from the composition of the states that did recover. However, the six states had higher rates of employment in goods-producing industries before the recession and higher rates of employment in service-providing industries following the recession.
{"title":"Examining industry composition effects in state employment","authors":"Meredith R. Miller","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.13","url":null,"abstract":"Using Current Employment Statistics data, this article examines employment for all 50 states and the District from 2007 to 2016 to determine whether an industry composition effect slowed the post-Great Recession recovery of six states—Alabama, Connecticut, Mississippi, New Mexico, West Virginia, and Wyoming. The industry composition of these states was analyzed first at a macrolevel (from goods producing to service providing) and then at a more detailed industry supersector level. Based on industry shares over a decade, the industry composition of the six states that were slower to recover was little different from the composition of the states that did recover. However, the six states had higher rates of employment in goods-producing industries before the recession and higher rates of employment in service-providing industries following the recession.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42461273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matthew S. Dey, Harley Frazis, M. Loewenstein, Hugette Sun
This article examines the relationship between workers’ to work at home, as captured in job characteristics and as measured by For the article also the of The article concludes by employment estimates the aiming to gauge how the initial employment effects of the pandemic differed between occupations in which telework is and occupations is not. https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/blog/key-economic-facts-about-covid-19/ . The highly exposed industries identified by Vavra are “Restaurants and Bars, Travel and Transportation, Entertainment (e.g., casinos and amusement parks), Personal Services (e.g., dentists, daycare providers, barbers), other sensitive Retail (e.g., department stores and car dealers), and sensitive Manufacturing (e.g., aircraft and car manufacturing).”
{"title":"Ability to work from home: evidence from two surveys and implications for the labor market in the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Matthew S. Dey, Harley Frazis, M. Loewenstein, Hugette Sun","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.14","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the relationship between workers’ to work at home, as captured in job characteristics and as measured by For the article also the of The article concludes by employment estimates the aiming to gauge how the initial employment effects of the pandemic differed between occupations in which telework is and occupations is not. https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/blog/key-economic-facts-about-covid-19/ . The highly exposed industries identified by Vavra are “Restaurants and Bars, Travel and Transportation, Entertainment (e.g., casinos and amusement parks), Personal Services (e.g., dentists, daycare providers, barbers), other sensitive Retail (e.g., department stores and car dealers), and sensitive Manufacturing (e.g., aircraft and car manufacturing).”","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49058085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Job openings, hires, and quits set record highs in 2019","authors":"M. McCarthy, Larry Akinyooye","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.12","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46282418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) highlight the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the results of efforts to mitigate its spread in 2020. With the challenges of the pandemic, many of the JOLTS data elements experienced shocks early in the year before returning to previous trends. In fact, many of the data elements experienced series highs. For example, the hires level reached a series high of 8.3 million in May 2020, bouncing back from a depressed level of 3.9 million in April 2020. The total separations level, also referred as turnover, reached a series high of 16.3 million in March 2020, boosted largely by a spike in layoffs and discharges.
{"title":"As the COVID-19 pandemic affects the nation, hires and turnover reach record highs in 2020","authors":"Larry Akinyooye, Eric Nezamis","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2021.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2021.11","url":null,"abstract":"Data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) highlight the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the results of efforts to mitigate its spread in 2020. With the challenges of the pandemic, many of the JOLTS data elements experienced shocks early in the year before returning to previous trends. In fact, many of the data elements experienced series highs. For example, the hires level reached a series high of 8.3 million in May 2020, bouncing back from a depressed level of 3.9 million in April 2020. The total separations level, also referred as turnover, reached a series high of 16.3 million in March 2020, boosted largely by a spike in layoffs and discharges.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43970685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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