, Working Paper 20427 Economic 2014). These authors observe faltering rates of reallocation during the Great Recession, which is the inverse of the typical case for recessions, perhaps indicating that the magnitude of this recession adversely affected prospects for productivity growth. Even worse, they state that “the reallocation Tobin’s Q was first introduced by Nicholas Kaldor 1966. more Kaldor, productivity and the macro-economic theories of distribution: comment Samuelson It popularized a however, James its two quantities: “One, the numerator, is the market valuation: the going price in the market for exchanging existing assets. The other, the denominator, is the replacement or reproduction cost: the price in the market for newly produced commodities. We believe that this ratio has considerable macroeconomic significance and usefulness, as the nexus between financial markets and markets for goods and services.”
{"title":"The U.S. productivity slowdown: an economy-wide and industry-level analysis","authors":"Shawn A. Sprague","doi":"10.21916/MLR.2021.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/MLR.2021.4","url":null,"abstract":", Working Paper 20427 Economic 2014). These authors observe faltering rates of reallocation during the Great Recession, which is the inverse of the typical case for recessions, perhaps indicating that the magnitude of this recession adversely affected prospects for productivity growth. Even worse, they state that “the reallocation Tobin’s Q was first introduced by Nicholas Kaldor 1966. more Kaldor, productivity and the macro-economic theories of distribution: comment Samuelson It popularized a however, James its two quantities: “One, the numerator, is the market valuation: the going price in the market for exchanging existing assets. The other, the denominator, is the replacement or reproduction cost: the price in the market for newly produced commodities. We believe that this ratio has considerable macroeconomic significance and usefulness, as the nexus between financial markets and markets for goods and services.”","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43444851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article examines the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2019–29 employment projections through two alternate scenarios: a moderate impact scenario and a strong impact scenario. The purpose of these projections is to estimate potential long-term structural changes in the U.S. labor market that are caused by changes in consumer and firm behavior as a result of the pandemic. Given the pandemic’s unprecedented impact on public health and social behavior, and in light of the still-evolving health crisis, the objective of this effort is to identify industries and occupations whose employment trajectories are subject to higher levels of uncertainty. The intent is not to produce precise estimates of employment change over the projections period.
{"title":"Employment projections in a pandemic environment","authors":"L. Ice, Michael Rieley, Samuel Rinde","doi":"10.21916/MLR.2021.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/MLR.2021.3","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2019–29 employment projections through two alternate scenarios: a moderate impact scenario and a strong impact scenario. The purpose of these projections is to estimate potential long-term structural changes in the U.S. labor market that are caused by changes in consumer and firm behavior as a result of the pandemic. Given the pandemic’s unprecedented impact on public health and social behavior, and in light of the still-evolving health crisis, the objective of this effort is to identify industries and occupations whose employment trajectories are subject to higher levels of uncertainty. The intent is not to produce precise estimates of employment change over the projections period.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42008026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The temporary help services (THS) industry has grown in absolute and relative terms since 1990, and also since the Great Recession, from 2008–18, the period covered in this article. The THS employment levels have fluctuated in advance of broader economic changes, providing a method for employers to scale employment up and down to meet changing conditions. As the economy has changed, so too has the deployment of THS employees. Trends in the THS industry follow overall employment trends and also shine a light on changes in the regional, occupational, and industrial utilization of THS employees. These trends in THS employment underscore the key features of the labor market that underlie the overall employment trends. THS employment is, in many ways, a barometer for the employment changes in the U.S. economy.
{"title":"What happened to temps? Changes since the Great Recession","authors":"Amar Mann, Tian Luo, R. Holden","doi":"10.21916/MLR.2021.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/MLR.2021.1","url":null,"abstract":"The temporary help services (THS) industry has grown in absolute and relative terms since 1990, and also since the Great Recession, from 2008–18, the period covered in this article. The THS employment levels have fluctuated in advance of broader economic changes, providing a method for employers to scale employment up and down to meet changing conditions. As the economy has changed, so too has the deployment of THS employees. Trends in the THS industry follow overall employment trends and also shine a light on changes in the regional, occupational, and industrial utilization of THS employees. These trends in THS employment underscore the key features of the labor market that underlie the overall employment trends. THS employment is, in many ways, a barometer for the employment changes in the U.S. economy.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49432682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Natural disasters, including hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, have challenged the standard practices used to produce state and area employment estimates. In some cases, these challenges have led to modifications to the handling of reported business closures, assumptions regarding nonresponse, and the techniques used for modeling employment in domains with small samples for state and metropolitan areas. This article examines how a series of major hurricanes in 2017 and 2018 affected the estimation of state and metropolitan area payroll employment and how lessons learned from these disasters provided a playbook for producing estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic.
{"title":"Estimating state and local employment in recent disasters—from Hurricane Harvey to the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Steven M. Mance","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2021.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2021.9","url":null,"abstract":"Natural disasters, including hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, have challenged the standard practices used to produce state and area employment estimates. In some cases, these challenges have led to modifications to the handling of reported business closures, assumptions regarding nonresponse, and the techniques used for modeling employment in domains with small samples for state and metropolitan areas. This article examines how a series of major hurricanes in 2017 and 2018 affected the estimation of state and metropolitan area payroll employment and how lessons learned from these disasters provided a playbook for producing estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68368314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Elizabeth Weber Handwerker, P. Meyer, Joseph S. Piacentini, Michael Schultz, Leo Sveikauskas
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic’s impact on the U.S. labor market is unprecedented. This article reviews economic research on recent pandemic-related job losses in the United States in order to understand the prospects for employment recovery. The research examines telework use, the incidence of job loss, disruptions in labor supply, and progress toward recovery. Massive temporary layoffs drove a spike in unemployment, and subsequent recalls of unemployed workers drove a rapid but partial recovery. The prospects for full recovery are murkier, both because the fraction of the remaining unemployed expecting to be recalled is decreasing and because the pandemic’s future course remains uncertain.
{"title":"Employment recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Elizabeth Weber Handwerker, P. Meyer, Joseph S. Piacentini, Michael Schultz, Leo Sveikauskas","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.27","url":null,"abstract":"The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic’s impact on the U.S. labor market is unprecedented. This article reviews economic research on recent pandemic-related job losses in the United States in order to understand the prospects for employment recovery. The research examines telework use, the incidence of job loss, disruptions in labor supply, and progress toward recovery. Massive temporary layoffs drove a spike in unemployment, and subsequent recalls of unemployed workers drove a rapid but partial recovery. The prospects for full recovery are murkier, both because the fraction of the remaining unemployed expecting to be recalled is decreasing and because the pandemic’s future course remains uncertain.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44733016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to considerable changes in consumer spending behavior in the United States Using data from the Household Pulse Survey, this article examines the extent of pandemic-related behavioral changes reported in August 2020 The article also shows how these changes differed across generations and geography
{"title":"Changes in consumer behaviors and financial well-being during the coronavirus pandemic: results from the U.S. Household Pulse Survey","authors":"T. Garner, Adam Safir, J. Schild","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.26","url":null,"abstract":"The onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to considerable changes in consumer spending behavior in the United States Using data from the Household Pulse Survey, this article examines the extent of pandemic-related behavioral changes reported in August 2020 The article also shows how these changes differed across generations and geography","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46891433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The labor force participation rate of prime-age men has been mostly falling since the late 1960s, with steeper declines during recessionary periods. This paper uses longitudinal data to examine whether men’s prior trajectories of schooling, work, family, income, health, incarceration, and living situations differ between nonworkers and their working peers. It also investigates whether non-work status is a transitory state, and whether parents, spouses, partners, or others are providing support. The data in this paper are from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), which contains detailed histories about individuals’ lives across multiple domains. This allows one to drill down past top-level information about employment and schooling to create a more nuanced picture involving support systems, criminal behaviors, family formation, health, disability, and youth expectations regarding educational attainment and future employment. At the 2015-16 NLSY97 survey date about 9 percent of men, who range in age from 30 to 36, had not worked in the prior year. Most of these men had never married, about a third lived in a household with a parent, and almost 20 percent were incarcerated at the time of the interview. The vast majority of men who did not work in the year prior to the 2015-16 interview also did not work much in earlier years.
{"title":"Male prime-age nonworkers: evidence from the NLSY97","authors":"D. Rothstein","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.25","url":null,"abstract":"The labor force participation rate of prime-age men has been mostly falling since the late 1960s, with steeper declines during recessionary periods. This paper uses longitudinal data to examine whether men’s prior trajectories of schooling, work, family, income, health, incarceration, and living situations differ between nonworkers and their working peers. It also investigates whether non-work status is a transitory state, and whether parents, spouses, partners, or others are providing support. The data in this paper are from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), which contains detailed histories about individuals’ lives across multiple domains. This allows one to drill down past top-level information about employment and schooling to create a more nuanced picture involving support systems, criminal behaviors, family formation, health, disability, and youth expectations regarding educational attainment and future employment. At the 2015-16 NLSY97 survey date about 9 percent of men, who range in age from 30 to 36, had not worked in the prior year. Most of these men had never married, about a third lived in a household with a parent, and almost 20 percent were incarcerated at the time of the interview. The vast majority of men who did not work in the year prior to the 2015-16 interview also did not work much in earlier years.","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41525463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kevin M. Camp, Dave Mead, S. B. Reed, C. Sitter, Derek Wasilewski
{"title":"From the barrel to the pump: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on prices for petroleum products","authors":"Kevin M. Camp, Dave Mead, S. B. Reed, C. Sitter, Derek Wasilewski","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.24","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.24","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45905669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michaela Dalton, Elizabeth Weber Handwerker, Mark A. Lowenstein
This paper expands on previous work analyzing employment changes by employer size during the pandemic by incorporating additional months of new data (October and November 2020) and examining job loss by both employer size class and detailed industries. Continuing trends observed since mid-summer, we observe continued faster job recovery among large employers than among smaller employers. Furthermore, establishments of large employers known to have multiple establishments have fared better than large employers with only a single-establishment. Within small employers, we find that employment loss due to closures has declined only a small amount since July, going from 2.8% to 2.3% in November. For large employers, employment loss due to closures has been less than 1% since June. JEL codes: E24, J21, J23, J63
{"title":"Employment changes by employer size during the COVID-19 pandemic: a look at the Current Employment Statistics survey microdata","authors":"Michaela Dalton, Elizabeth Weber Handwerker, Mark A. Lowenstein","doi":"10.21916/mlr.2020.23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.23","url":null,"abstract":"This paper expands on previous work analyzing employment changes by employer size during the pandemic by incorporating additional months of new data (October and November 2020) and examining job loss by both employer size class and detailed industries. Continuing trends observed since mid-summer, we observe continued faster job recovery among large employers than among smaller employers. Furthermore, establishments of large employers known to have multiple establishments have fared better than large employers with only a single-establishment. Within small employers, we find that employment loss due to closures has declined only a small amount since July, going from 2.8% to 2.3% in November. For large employers, employment loss due to closures has been less than 1% since June. JEL codes: E24, J21, J23, J63","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46465472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A new BLS satellite series of net inputs to industry price indexes: methodology and uses","authors":"Jayson Pollock, Jonathan C. Weinhagen","doi":"10.21916/MLR.2020.22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21916/MLR.2020.22","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":47215,"journal":{"name":"Monthly Labor Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2020-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44637213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：