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Prolonged Guesthood: How Syrian Refugees Shaped Turkish Politics? 长期留宿:叙利亚难民如何影响土耳其政治?
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12332
Elif Erbay, Emine Kübra Usta

This study investigates the effects of Syrian refugee inflow on the voting behavior of natives in Turkey. We utilize administrative data at the provincial level, employ a difference-in-differences strategy for the identification and distance-based instrumental variable to account for the endogenous refugee settlement. We find a positive and significant effect of refugees on the right-wing nationalistic party's (MHP) vote share, while there are no effects on the vote share of the incumbent party (AKP) and the main opposition party (CHP). Investigating the evolution of voting reaction after 2011 shows that AKP vote share first increased in 2015 then dropped in 2018 and 2023. When the heterogeneity of refugee hosting places is considered, CHP vote share increases in highly urban and lower population areas. Overall, our results indicate a considerable voting reaction from natives. We argue that perceived threats of natives based on their sociocultural positions and sociotropic voting behavior explain the natives' reaction.

本研究探讨叙利亚难民流入对土耳其本地人投票行为的影响。我们利用省级的行政数据,采用差异中的差异策略进行识别,并采用基于距离的工具变量来解释内生的难民安置。我们发现,难民对右翼民族主义政党(MHP)的选票份额有显著的正向影响,而对执政党(AKP)和主要反对党(CHP)的选票份额没有影响。调查2011年之后投票反应的演变表明,正义与发展党得票率在2015年首先上升,然后在2018年和2023年下降。当考虑到难民收容地的异质性时,CHP的选票份额在高度城市化和人口较少的地区增加。总的来说,我们的结果表明,当地人的投票反应相当大。我们认为,基于社会文化地位和社会取向投票行为的土著感知威胁解释了土著的反应。
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引用次数: 0
One or More Payers for Healthcare Financing: The Experience From Poland and Czechia 医疗融资的一个或多个支付方:来自波兰和捷克的经验
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-27 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12330
Pawel Bialynicki-Birula, Lucie Burianová, Jacek Klich, Jan Mertl, Adam Šimčík

This paper focuses on circumstances and consequences of health payers' configuration in Poland and Czechia since the 1990s. It aims to identify the differences in healthcare financing between the two neighboring countries that had started from a similar position, but eventually incorporated different arrangements of payers. The paper conducts comparative analysis of four distinctive elements: the configuration of contracting and payment methods, the power of the payers, coverage and contributions, and the dominant anchor's search attempts. The results map the evolution of healthcare in both countries with a focus on the payers' role, show the payers' economic position and behavior to providers, citizens and health policy authorities. Polish single-payer system was identified as cheaper and more effective for administratively based expenditure control, while the Czech multipayer one showed higher institutional stability and a wider coverage paid by public health insurance. The paper brings an empirical assessment of existing theoretical knowledge concerning the options for a payers' configuration, demonstrating that the choice and adjustments thereof are country-specific and depend on the preferred priorities of health policy.

本文主要研究自20世纪90年代以来波兰和捷克卫生支付者配置的情况和后果。它旨在确定两个邻国在医疗保健融资方面的差异,这两个国家从相似的立场开始,但最终纳入了不同的付款人安排。本文从签约与付费方式的配置、付费人的权力、覆盖范围与贡献、强势主播的搜索尝试等四个有特色的要素进行对比分析。结果反映了两国医疗保健的演变,重点关注了支付者的角色,向提供者、公民和卫生政策当局展示了支付者的经济地位和行为。波兰单一付款人制度被确定为更便宜和更有效的行政支出控制,而捷克多付款人制度显示出更高的机构稳定性和更广泛的覆盖范围由公共健康保险支付。本文对有关支付者配置选择的现有理论知识进行了实证评估,表明其选择和调整是针对具体国家的,并取决于卫生政策的优先事项。
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引用次数: 0
Government Intelligent Transformation and Mixed-Ownership Reform: Evidence From China 政府智能化转型与混合所有制改革:来自中国的证据
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12329
Bin Li, Ruiqing Cao, Chenchen Shi, Jing Zhao

Mixed-ownership reform (the Reform) is crucial for the construction of a modern market economy. Through a proprietary data set of 32 provinces in China, we find that government intelligent transformation (GIT) can attract private firms acquiring local state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and such link is stronger among target firms in central and western regions, and acquirers with lower competitive positions and higher levels of digital transformation. Additionally, we also find this effect exists both in local and nonlocal private firms. Further tests suggest that GIT can regulate government behaviors, reduce relational transactions, and enhance local policy environment quality and the level of local market legal governance, thereby promoting private firms to participate in the Reform. Moreover, in the provinces with higher levels of GIT, there is a greater likelihood that private firms will gain control rights over SOEs and obtain more resources following the Reform. Our findings may have policy implications for the world's largest emerging market.

混合所有制改革是建设现代市场经济的关键。通过中国32个省份的专有数据集,我们发现政府智能转型能够吸引民营企业收购地方国有企业,且在中西部地区的目标企业和竞争地位较低、数字化转型水平较高的收购方之间,这种联系更强。此外,我们还发现这种效应在本地和非本地私营企业中都存在。进一步的检验表明,GIT可以规范政府行为,减少关系交易,提高地方政策环境质量和地方市场法治水平,从而促进民营企业参与改革。此外,在GIT水平较高的省份,民营企业更有可能在改革后获得对国有企业的控制权,并获得更多资源。我们的研究结果可能会对这个全球最大的新兴市场产生政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Women in the Labor Market and Experienced Political Institutions 劳动力市场中的妇女和有经验的政治机构
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12328
Ugo antonio Troiano

In this paper, I first present a novel finding: women who have experienced democratic institutions during their impressionable years are more likely to participate in the labor market, while controlling for factors such as country, cohort, language and various other confounding factors. I then provide evidence suggesting that discriminatory attitudes may serve as a channel for this phenomenon. Other explanations receive less support from the data.

在本文中,我首先提出了一个新颖的发现:在易受影响的年龄经历过民主制度的女性更有可能参与劳动力市场,同时控制了国家、群体、语言和各种其他混杂因素等因素。然后,我提供证据表明,歧视态度可能是造成这种现象的一个渠道。其他解释从数据中得到的支持较少。
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引用次数: 0
Mafia and Political Competition Redirecting Votes not Discouraging Candidates 黑手党和政治竞争改变选票而不是打击候选人
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12327
Anna Laura Baraldi

The efforts of organized crime to affect the outcome of elections have been well documented. In the present paper, we exploit the staggered enforcement of Law 164/1991, an anticrime measure that mandates dissolution of the city council in the case of suspected mafia infiltration, to show that political competition in municipal elections in Italy, measured by the win margin between the two “strongest” candidates and the Herfindahl index, increases sharply in the first election following a compulsory administration in dissolved municipalities compared to the control group of municipalities that have never been subject to council dissolution. We find that this effect of the anti-mafia policy remains slightly significant up to the third election after dissolution, after which time it disappears. The paper suggests that mafias manipulate electoral outcomes principally by affecting voter behaviour, rather than by discouraging unfriendly candidates. We investigate several channels that might be driving these results.

有组织犯罪为影响选举结果所作的努力已得到充分记录。在本文中,我们利用第164/1991号法律(一项反犯罪措施,要求在涉嫌黑手党渗透的情况下解散市议会)的交错执行,表明意大利市政选举中的政治竞争,通过两个“最强”候选人之间的胜差和赫芬达尔指数来衡量,在被解散的市实行强制管理后的第一次选举中,与从未被解散的市的对照组相比,人数急剧增加。我们发现,在解散后的第三次选举之前,反黑手党政策的这种效果仍然略有显著,之后它就消失了。这篇论文表明,黑手党操纵选举结果主要是通过影响选民的行为,而不是阻止不友好的候选人。我们调查了可能导致这些结果的几个渠道。
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引用次数: 0
Re-righting the law: The impact of VRA preclearance on language minorities 重新纠正法律:VRA预先批准对语言少数群体的影响
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12324
James M. Harrison, Aaron M. Gamino

The 1975 Voting Rights Act (VRA) extended voting rights protections to language minority groups. Employing a triple difference design, we find that language minority voter turnout remained stable in VRA-shielded counties while it eroded elsewhere. This led to a reallocation of state educational funds away from unshielded counties. As a result, shielded counties experienced preferable changes in their high school graduation rates, white-collar job attainment, and income. We find most of these differences were driven by the VRA's preclearance provision.

1975年的《投票权法案》(VRA)将投票权保护扩大到语言少数群体。采用三重差异设计,我们发现语言少数民族选民投票率在vra保护的县保持稳定,而在其他地方则有所下降。这导致州教育资金从未受保护的县重新分配。因此,受保护的县在高中毕业率、白领工作成就和收入方面都经历了较好的变化。我们发现,这些差异大多是由VRA的预许可条款造成的。
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引用次数: 0
Digital inclusive finance and digital transformation of Chinese enterprises: Perspectives on company technology intensity and financialization 数字普惠金融与中国企业数字化转型:基于公司技术强度和金融化的视角
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12326
Qian Xu, Qun Cao, Liyan Wang

This study explores the role of digital inclusive finance in company digital transformation within China, particularly examining the variances among companies with differing levels of technological intensity and financialization. Using A-share Chinese data from 2011 to 2022, we find that regions with superior digital inclusive finance exhibit enhanced corporate digital transformation, regardless of the provincial or municipal level. Subindexes, including the coverage breadth, use depth, and degree of digital inclusive finance, confirm that they are all significantly positively related to digital transformation. These effects are more pronounced in companies with lower technological intensity, and corporate financialization serves as a mediating factor.

本研究探讨了数字普惠金融在中国公司数字化转型中的作用,特别是研究了不同技术强度和金融化水平的公司之间的差异。利用2011 - 2022年的中国a股数据,我们发现,无论是省级还是市级,数字普惠金融优势地区的企业数字化转型都有所增强。数字普惠金融的覆盖广度、使用深度和程度等子指标均证实其与数字化转型呈显著正相关。这些效应在技术强度较低的企业中更为明显,企业金融化起到中介作用。
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引用次数: 0
Are algorithms always fair? The study on public preferences toward algorithmic decision-making: A case study from the perspectives of decision scenarios and social roles 算法总是公平的吗?算法决策的公众偏好研究:基于决策情景和社会角色视角的案例研究
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12325
Bing Wang, Longxiang Luo, Xiuli Wang

The integration of algorithmic decision-making into daily life gives rise to a need to understand public attitudes toward this phenomenon. This study uses online experiments to explore how decision scenarios and roles influence public preferences for algorithms. In-depth interviews were conducted to examine interpretations of algorithmic fairness. The findings indicate a preference for algorithms, yet a stronger preference for human decision-making in ethically complex scenarios. Decision-makers demonstrate greater acceptance of algorithms. Participants perceive algorithmic fairness from social and technical perspectives, emphasizing autonomy and transparency. Despite a general preference for algorithms, concerns persist, revealing a nuanced view of algorithmic fairness as a form of societal power.

将算法决策融入日常生活,需要了解公众对这一现象的态度。本研究使用在线实验来探讨决策场景和角色如何影响公众对算法的偏好。我们进行了深入访谈,以检验对算法公平性的解释。研究结果表明,人们更倾向于算法,但在道德复杂的情况下,更倾向于人类决策。决策者更容易接受算法。参与者从社会和技术角度看待算法的公平性,强调自主性和透明度。尽管人们普遍偏爱算法,但担忧仍然存在,这揭示了一种微妙的观点,即算法公平是一种社会权力。
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引用次数: 0
Politics of local fiscal discipline with vertical fiscal imbalance 纵向财政失衡下的地方财政纪律政治
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12323
Samuel K. Obeng, Layal Aazam

We examine the political conditions mediating the effect of vertical fiscal imbalance (VFI) on local government fiscal discipline in Ghana. Based on a panel dataset of 216 local governments in Ghana over the period 1994–2018, we adopt both a static and dynamic approach, in addition to a regression discontinuity design. From the results, while alignment may give “free pass,” local governments could leverage same for effective tax efforts. Further, the benefits of lower political competition may reduce where local governments place reliance on central government grants. There is consistent evidence of a negative effect of VFI on fiscal discipline.

我们研究了加纳垂直财政失衡(VFI)对地方政府财政纪律影响的政治条件。基于1994-2018年期间加纳216个地方政府的面板数据集,我们采用了静态和动态方法,以及回归不连续设计。从结果来看,虽然一致性可能给了“免费通行证”,但地方政府可以利用它来有效地征税。此外,在地方政府依赖中央政府拨款的地方,降低政治竞争的好处可能会减少。有一致的证据表明,VFI对财政纪律有负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
U.S. presidential approval and the macroeconomy: 1960–2022 美国总统支持率与宏观经济:1960-2022
IF 1.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1111/ecpo.12322
T. Daniel Coggin

U.S. presidential approval is a topic that has long attracted the interest of political pundits, journalists, candidates, and academics. This study focuses on quarterly U.S. presidential approval and measures of the U.S. macroeconomy. This research will expand, update and reinvestigate this relationship using new data, additional variables and the IVX predictive regression model of Kostakis, et al. (2015), specifically developed for time series data with mixed orders of integration such as we have here. We found that (as measured by Gallup data) U.S. presidential approval is a stationary mean-reverting variable with a long-term mean of approximately 50%. Our results also suggest that presidential party and the business cycle have no impact on the mean of quarterly presidential approval as standalone variables. However, using a comprehensive set of macroeconomic variables in a single study, we found that macroeconomic variables make a difference in applying predictive regression models to indicate significance. Specifically, before and after controlling for other macroeconomic variables, political party and the business cycle, more immediate “pocketbook issues” like gasoline prices and inflation expectations are important issues to American voters' presidential approval rating. Simply put, our regression results suggest rising prices and the expectation of rising prices consistently lower presidential approval in our sample data. This is a result that will likely interest political practitioners and academics alike.

长期以来,美国总统审批一直是政治专家、记者、候选人和学者感兴趣的话题。这项研究的重点是美国总统的季度批准和美国宏观经济的措施。这项研究将使用新的数据、额外的变量和Kostakis等人(2015)的IVX预测回归模型来扩展、更新和重新研究这种关系,IVX预测回归模型是专门为时间序列数据开发的,如我们在这里拥有的混合积分顺序。我们发现(根据盖洛普数据衡量)美国总统支持率是一个平稳的均值回归变量,长期均值约为50%。我们的研究结果还表明,总统政党和经济周期对季度总统批准的平均值没有影响。然而,在单一研究中使用一组综合的宏观经济变量,我们发现宏观经济变量在应用预测回归模型来表明显著性方面存在差异。具体来说,在控制其他宏观经济变量、政党和商业周期之前和之后,汽油价格和通胀预期等更直接的“钱包问题”是影响美国选民对总统支持率的重要因素。简单地说,我们的回归结果表明,在我们的样本数据中,价格上涨和对价格上涨的预期持续降低了总统的支持率。这一结果可能会引起政治实践者和学者的兴趣。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Economics & Politics
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