Economics & Politics最新文献

We investigate the effect of central bank independence (CBI) on fiscal stance: the direct impact on the primary balance and the impact on the reaction of the primary balance to the public debt. We also analyze the role of institutions in the effects of CBI on fiscal policy. We estimate fiscal reaction functions augmented by a measure of CBI using a panel of 98 countries. We find that CBI lowers the primary balance but strengthens its reaction to the government debt, hence increasing long-term fiscal sustainability. Other institutions, such as democracy, seem to strengthen the negative direct reaction of the primary balance to CBI.

The paper seeks to assess the relevance of BRICS as an analytical category by examining six indicators of good governance and investigating whether BRICS membership has led to institutional convergence among its members. The primary data source for this study is the Worldwide Governance Indicators provided by the World Bank for the period 2006–2020. These indicators focus on six key dimensions that assess the quality of governance within the BRICS countries and the six BRICS Plus candidate nations. Following the approach outlined by Phillips and Sul (2007, 2009), the analysis reveals convergence in five of these indicators among the BRICS countries, with the exception of the Control of Corruption. This discrepancy raises questions about the BRICS' role and influence as an international organization. However, it is worth noting that none of the six potential BRICS Plus candidates exhibit full cointegration or convergence with all the indicators used to assess the BRICS. The results, encompassing both cointegration and convergence, highlight the significant challenges in achieving complete alignment for the emerging BRICS Plus group.

The high liquidity and flexibility of internet money market funds enable investors to subscribe and redeem their holdings conveniently at any time. Yu'ebao, as one of China's most representative internet money market fund products, has attracted considerable attention regarding the determinants of fluctuations in its yield. Taking Yu'ebao as the research subject, this paper explores the mechanisms through which capital market activities and investor sentiment—captured through both stock and bond markets—affect the fund's yield. Empirical results indicate that: (1) stock market trading volume exhibits a significant positive correlation with Yu'ebao's yield, whereas bond market trading volume shows a significant negative impact; (2) the influence of bond market trading volume on Yu'ebao's yield is more pronounced compared to that of the stock market; (3) although investor sentiment is significantly positively correlated with Yu'ebao's yield, it does not constitute a decisive determinant. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the yield formation mechanism in internet money market funds. Through empirically validated findings and multiple robustness checks, it provides crucial evidence for financial regulatory authorities concerning monetary policy formulation and market stability management.

Corporate donations significantly shape the landscape of US presidential elections, yet we have a limited understanding of how firms' internal finances and external political risks influence these contributions. Using a data set that merges firm-level information with campaign records from 1992 to 2020, we analyze the propensity, intensity, and distribution of corporate giving between parties. We find that while companies often employ a bipartisan donation strategy, they consistently exhibit a stronger preference for Republican candidates. We further show that escalating political polarization is associated with a 2% increase in the likelihood of donating and a 21.8% rise in total contributions, especially among non-research-oriented sectors. These patterns underscore the importance of both financial imperatives and broader political incentives in driving firms' campaign finance decisions.

This study investigates the impact of anticorruption on capital market pricing efficiency through stock price synchronization. Using a data set from 3188 of China's A-share listed firms with 20,673 firm-year observations, our results show that anticorruption significantly reduces stock price synchronization. We conduct a series of robustness checks, including difference-in-differences analysis, informal monitoring mechanisms, alternative explanatory variables, and excluding observations during the Global Financial Crisis, and the conclusions remain consistent. The mechanism analysis reveals that anticorruption improves corporate disclosure quality at the micro level and the degree of marketization and government-market relationship at the macro level, which reduces stock price synchronicity. This effect is more pronounced among state-owned enterprises (SOEs), especially local SOEs. This study presents empirical evidence regarding the logic of development and governance dynamics in emerging economies.

Under globalization and economic uncertainty, enterprises optimize supply chain configurations via supply chain finance (SCF). From the perspective of supply chain governance, we use A-share listed company data (2007–2021) and find that SCF reduces concentration and promotes diversification, especially in high-trust, uncertain environments. When the mechanism test is adopted, the supply and demand coordination cost and the financing cost and enterprise risk of core enterprises in the upstream and downstream transaction process can be significantly reduced, and the transparency of the supply chain can be improved. These features promote the diversified supply chain configuration of enterprises and ensure supply chain security.

The rise of financial technologies—fintech—has the potential to transform the financial landscape by extending the reach of services beyond geographic boundaries and introducing new, competitive sources of finance for both households and firms. But what drives fintech growth? Why do some countries experience more financial innovation than others? This article explores these questions using a novel data set covering 98 countries from 2012 to 2020. Through empirical analysis, it identifies key economic, demographic, technological, and institutional factors that influence the emergence and diffusion of fintech. The impact and statistical significance of these factors vary depending on the type of fintech instrument and the level of economic development—distinguishing between advanced and developing economies. The findings suggest that targeted policies and structural reforms can foster financial innovation, particularly by enhancing technological and institutional infrastructure and addressing cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) components are critical inputs of long-term growth and affect sovereigns' ability and willingness to repay their debts. In this paper, we argue that the media provides information on extra-financial factors and ESG-related news coverage allows investors to update their expectations about the likelihood of repayment. Drawing on a global corpus of more than four billion news articles to identify the frequency and tone with which ESG factors are discussed daily, we show that reporting on ESG factors affects creditors' assessment of sovereign creditworthiness, even after accounting for political and macroeconomic conditions. By revisiting previous work with a broader scope and fine-grained data, we advance our understanding of how and based on what information creditors form expectations of sovereign creditworthiness.