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Exploring cultures of evidence in energy policymaking in the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands 探索英国、德国和荷兰能源决策中的证据文化
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puae035
Will McDowall
This paper explores different “cultures of evidence” in energy policymaking in the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands. The urgent energy system transformation needed to respond to the climate crisis depends on policies informed by technical and engineering expertise, and particularly energy modeling. Such expertise had traditionally been poorly represented in the energy ministries of the Dutch, German, and UK governments. There is limited understanding of how policy advisory systems have evolved to respond to these emerging evidence needs. This paper presents a framework for describing how cultures of evidence differ, and applies this to a comparative study of energy policymaking in the UK, Netherlands, and Germany. I show clear differences in how evidence is understood and used. The Dutch and German governments have sought technical and modeling evidence from consultants or independent agencies. In doing so, the Dutch and German ministries appear to place stronger value on the “independence” of such evidence, while the UK system builds credibility through adherence to formal procedures. A second clear difference in the cultures of evidence relates to different beliefs about the extent to which expert knowledge can be impartial and value-free. The cases suggest that different cultures of evidence have coevolved with each country’s institutional history and shaped the energy policy advisory system.
本文探讨了英国、德国和荷兰能源决策中不同的 "证据文化"。应对气候危机所需的紧急能源系统转型取决于以技术和工程专业知识为依据的政策,特别是能源建模。在荷兰、德国和英国政府的能源部中,这些专业知识的代表性一直很低。人们对政策咨询系统如何演变以应对这些新出现的证据需求了解有限。本文提出了一个描述证据文化差异的框架,并将其应用于英国、荷兰和德国能源政策制定的比较研究。我展示了在如何理解和使用证据方面的明显差异。荷兰和德国政府向顾问或独立机构寻求技术和模型证据。在这样做的过程中,荷兰和德国的部委似乎更看重这些证据的 "独立性",而英国的制度则是通过遵守正式程序来建立可信度。证据文化的第二个明显差异与对专家知识的公正和无价值程度的不同看法有关。这些案例表明,不同的证据文化与每个国家的制度历史共同发展,并塑造了能源政策咨询体系。
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引用次数: 0
Variation in evidence use across policy sectors: the case of Brazil 各政策部门在使用证据方面的差异:巴西的案例
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puae031
Kidjie Saguin, João V Guedes-Neto, Pedro Lucas Moura Palotti, Natália Massaco Koga, Flavio Lyrio Carneiro
Evidence use across policy sectors is widely believed to vary as each sector espouses a specific and dominant pattern in how it sources evidence. This view privileges the idea that a “culture of evidence” serves as a norm that guides behavior in the entire sector. In this article, we seek to nuance the policy sectoral approach to understanding evidence use by analyzing the results of a large-N survey of federal employees in Brazil (n = 2,177). Our findings show a diverse set of cultures of evidence with a few sectors like Science and Technology demonstrating a strong likelihood for using scientific evidence with most sectors showing a mixed pattern of sourcing evidence. However, a majority of the surveyed civil servants show an “indistinct” pattern of evidence use who are likely to not use any sources of evidence.
人们普遍认为,各政策部门对证据的使用不尽相同,因为每个部门在如何获取证据方面都信奉一种特定的主导模式。这种观点认为,"证据文化 "是指导整个部门行为的准则。在本文中,我们试图通过分析一项对巴西联邦雇员(n = 2,177)进行的大样本调查的结果,对以政策部门为基础的证据使用方法进行细化。我们的研究结果表明,证据文化多种多样,少数部门(如科学与技术部门)表现出使用科学证据的强烈倾向,而大多数部门则表现出使用证据的混合模式。然而,大多数接受调查的公务员在证据使用方面表现出 "模糊 "的模式,他们可能不使用任何证据来源。
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引用次数: 0
Policy sequencing can increase public support for ambitious climate policy 政策排序可增加公众对雄心勃勃的气候政策的支持
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puad030
Simon Montfort, Lukas Fesenfeld, Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen, Karin Ingold
Public support for ambitious climate policies and carbon prices that have direct costs for voters may depend on policy sequencing. Policy sequencing theory suggests that the strategic ordering of policies into sequences that initially create benefits can subsequently increase support for higher carbon prices. However, systematic quantitative evidence about the effects of sequencing on public support is lacking. We provide novel theoretical and empirical insights on the mechanisms through which strategic policy sequencing affects public support for climate policies. We generated these insights using geospatial data and a representative conjoint experiment with Swiss voters conducted just before the popular vote on an amendment to the Federal Act on the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in June 2021. Our evidence shows that the perceived effectiveness of prior policy-induced benefits is related to more public support for higher carbon prices across sectors. Moreover, we find that more opportunity structures for low-emission alternatives—like higher EV charging station density—are associated with increased public support for carbon prices in the sector where the former material benefits occur. Our results also imply that positive policy perceptions of prior climate policies are related to increased support, particularly among conservative voters and those who do not regard climate change as a salient issue. Thus, strategic policy sequencing could be an effective strategy for broadening public support for ambitious climate policies.
公众对雄心勃勃的气候政策和对选民有直接成本的碳价格的支持可能取决于政策排序。政策排序理论认为,战略性地将政策排序为最初能带来利益的序列,可随后增加对更高碳价格的支持。然而,关于排序对公众支持的影响,目前还缺乏系统的定量证据。我们就战略性政策排序影响公众对气候政策支持的机制提供了新的理论和经验见解。我们利用地理空间数据,并在 2021 年 6 月对《减少温室气体排放联邦法案》修正案进行民众投票之前,对瑞士选民进行了一次具有代表性的联合实验,从而得出了这些见解。我们的证据表明,先前政策所带来的利益的可感知有效性与各行业公众对更高碳价格的更多支持有关。此外,我们还发现,低排放替代品的更多机会结构--如更高的电动汽车充电站密度--与公众对碳价格的更多支持相关,而碳价格正是前者带来的实质性好处。我们的研究结果还表明,对先前气候政策的积极政策认知与支持率的提高有关,特别是在保守派选民和那些不把气候变化视为突出问题的选民中。因此,战略性的政策排序可能是扩大公众对雄心勃勃的气候政策支持的有效策略。
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引用次数: 0
Blame avoidance and credit-claiming dynamics in government policy communications: evidence from leadership tweets in four OECD countries during the 2020–2022 COVID-19 pandemic 政府政策沟通中的责任回避和信用索取动态:来自2020-2022年COVID-19大流行期间四个经合组织国家领导人推文的证据
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puad029
Ching Leong, Michael Howlett, Mehrdad Safaei
Government information activities are often thought to be motivated by a classic calculus of blame minimization and credit maximization. However, the precise interactions of “blame” and “credit” communication activities in government are not well understood, and questions abound about how they are deployed in practice. This paper uses Natural Language Processing (NLP) machine-learning sentiment analysis of a unique dataset composed of several thousand tweets of high-level political leaders in four OECD countries—namely the Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, and Canada—during 2020–2022 to examine the relationships existing between “blame” and “credit” communication strategies and their relation to the changing severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, both in an objective and subjective sense. In general, the study suggests that during this high-impact, long-lasting, and waxing and waning crisis, political leaders acted in accordance with theoretical expectations when it came to communicating credit seeking messages during the periods when the COVID situation was thought to be improving, but they did not exclusively rely upon communicating blame or scapegoating when the situation was considered to be deteriorating. The consequences of this finding for blame and credit-based theories of government communication are then discussed.
政府的信息活动通常被认为是由一个经典的责任最小化和信用最大化的计算所驱动的。然而,政府中“指责”和“信任”传播活动的确切相互作用尚未得到很好的理解,关于如何在实践中部署它们的问题比比皆是。本文使用自然语言处理(NLP)机器学习对一个独特的数据集进行情感分析,该数据集由四个经合组织国家(即英国、爱尔兰、澳大利亚和加拿大的总理)的数千条推文组成,在2020-2022年期间,从客观和主观的角度审视“指责”和“信任”沟通策略之间存在的关系,以及它们与COVID-19大流行严重程度变化的关系。总的来说,研究表明,在这场影响巨大、持续时间长、时断时续的危机中,政治领导人在传播寻求信贷的信息时,在人们认为新冠疫情正在好转的时期,按照理论预期行事,但在人们认为疫情正在恶化的时期,他们并不完全依赖于传播指责或找替罪羊。然后讨论了这一发现对指责和基于信用的政府沟通理论的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Is there a behavioral revolution in policy design? A new agenda and inventory of the behavioral toolbox 在政策设计中是否存在一场行为革命?一个新的议程和行为工具箱的清单
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-11-06 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puad028
Anders Esmark
Abstract The article argues for a revised research on behavioral public policy focused on the core claim and sine qua non of a behavioral “revolution”: the ability to produce equal or better outcomes with less stringent policy designs than in traditional solutions, at least for certain types of problems. Three contributions to such an agenda are proposed. First, the article argues that the growing focus on the evaluation of real-world behavioral policy programs, as opposed to experimental studies within specialized areas of research, calls for a corresponding theoretical orientation toward existing literature on policy tools and design. Second, a doctrine of policy design is extrapolated from the broader behavioral paradigm and specified in relation to four general areas of application. These provide an essential context for the evaluation of the behavioral claim to improved policy design and highlight that behavioral successes may well, contra this claim, be a result of a de facto increase in stringency vis-à-vis traditional responses. Third, the article proposes a new and substantially revised inventory of the behavioral toolbox, which specifies the stringency, mechanisms, and potential costs of different behavioral tools and techniques, which is both essential to the evaluation of the behavioral claim and necessary to overcome the arbitrariness and mistakes of existing inventories.
本文主张对行为公共政策进行修订研究,重点关注行为“革命”的核心主张和必要条件:至少对于某些类型的问题,用不那么严格的政策设计产生与传统解决方案相同或更好的结果的能力。对这一议程提出了三点建议。首先,本文认为,与专业研究领域的实验研究相反,越来越多的人关注对现实世界行为政策项目的评估,这要求对现有的政策工具和设计文献进行相应的理论导向。其次,政策设计的原则是从更广泛的行为范式中推断出来的,并具体说明了四个一般应用领域。这些为评价改进政策设计的行为主张提供了一个基本背景,并强调,与这一主张相反,行为上的成功很可能是相对-à-vis传统反应事实上增加严格程度的结果。第三,本文提出了一个新的、经过实质性修订的行为工具箱清单,其中详细说明了不同行为工具和技术的严格性、机制和潜在成本,这既是评估行为主张所必需的,也是克服现有清单的随意性和错误所必需的。
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引用次数: 0
The role of policy design in policy continuation and ratcheting-up of policy ambition 政策设计在政策延续和政策野心提升中的作用
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puad027
Sebastian Sewerin, Lukas P Fesenfeld, Tobias S Schmidt
Abstract Effectively addressing grand societal challenges like climate change and environmental degradation requires policy intervention that is not only continuous but also increasing in ambition over time. However, negative feedback could lead to policies being weakened or even discontinued after a while. An important but unresolved policy question, therefore, is whether policies can be deliberately designed to survive (i.e., to “stick”) and, ideally, be replaced with more ambitious ones over time (i.e., to “ratchet up”). We bridge policy feedback and policy design scholarship to derive hypotheses on the effects of two policy design features—“intensity” (i.e., a measure of policies’ overall design) and “specificity” (i.e., a measure of policies’ targeted focus)—on policy (dis-)continuation and ratcheting-up (-down) of ambition. Focusing on policy design, we contribute to the theorization and empirical understanding of endogenous factors behind policy change. We test our hypotheses with an event history dataset of 627 low-carbon energy policies in eight developed countries. Conducting a multilevel survival analysis, we find statistically significant evidence of more intense policies being replaced with less intense ones, i.e., more intense policies lead to ratcheting-down of ambition. We also find that more specific policies are more likely to be replaced with more intense policies, i.e., more specific policies lead to ratcheting-up of ambition. Based on these novel insights, we discuss how policy design can navigate these complex dynamics. In this sense, our approach also contributes to the discussion about the “forward-looking” potential of the policy sciences.
有效应对气候变化和环境退化等重大社会挑战需要持续的政策干预,而且随着时间的推移,政策干预的力度也会越来越大。然而,负面反馈可能导致政策被削弱,甚至在一段时间后停止。因此,一个重要但尚未解决的政策问题是,政策是否可以被刻意设计成能够持续(即“坚持”),并且在理想情况下,随着时间的推移,被更雄心勃勃的政策(即“逐步”)所取代。我们将政策反馈和政策设计学术联系起来,得出关于两个政策设计特征——“强度”(即政策总体设计的衡量标准)和“特异性”(即政策目标重点的衡量标准)对政策(非)延续和雄心(下降)的影响的假设。我们以政策设计为重点,对政策变化背后的内生因素进行了理论化和实证理解。我们用8个发达国家627项低碳能源政策的事件历史数据集来检验我们的假设。通过进行多层次生存分析,我们发现了统计上显著的证据,表明力度更大的政策被力度较小的政策所取代,也就是说,力度更大的政策会导致野心的降低。我们还发现,更具体的政策更有可能被更激烈的政策所取代,也就是说,更具体的政策会导致野心的增强。基于这些新颖的见解,我们讨论了政策设计如何驾驭这些复杂的动态。从这个意义上说,我们的方法也有助于讨论政策科学的“前瞻性”潜力。
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引用次数: 0
“State captured” policy advice? Think tanks as expert advisors in the Western Balkans “国家占领”的政策建议?作为西巴尔干地区专家顾问的智库
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puad021
Irena Djordjevic, Diane Stone
Few scholars have dedicated their attention to the role of think tanks as policy experts within captured states. We investigate how, why, and to what extent think tanks are used in the captured states in the Western Balkans. Our assumption was that think tanks could become party to the processes of “capture”. However, original findings from focus group and interviews with think tankers show that think tank expertise is perceived as an imposed obligation—from external pressures and existing national regulatory frameworks. Accordingly, incorporation of think tank policy advice is fulfilled to an extent, but not necessarily for the sake of improving the quality of public policies. In this environment, think tanks are enrolled in the simulacra of inclusive policy deliberation without substantially influencing policy making. Nevertheless, these organizations have developed creative mechanisms to survive, preserve their independence, and still foster advice uptake within captured bureaucracies. Openly value-driven advice is the overarching one.
很少有学者关注智库作为被占领国家的政策专家所扮演的角色。我们调查了西巴尔干被占国家如何、为什么以及在多大程度上使用智库。我们的假设是,智库可以成为“捕获”过程的一方。然而,焦点小组和智库访谈的原始发现表明,由于外部压力和现有的国家监管框架,智库专业知识被视为一种强加的义务。因此,虽然在一定程度上实现了智囊团政策建议的纳入,但并不一定是为了提高公共政策的质量。在这种环境下,智库被纳入包容性政策审议的模拟,而不会对政策制定产生实质性影响。然而,这些组织已经发展出创造性的机制来生存,保持它们的独立性,并且仍然在被控制的官僚机构中促进建议的吸收。公开的价值导向的建议是最重要的。
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引用次数: 0
Knowledge–practice gap in healthcare payments: the role of policy capacity 医疗保健支付中的知识与实践差距:政策能力的作用
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puad019
Azad Singh Bali, M Ramesh
Abstract Fee-for-service remains a popular mode of paying for healthcare despite widespread knowledge of its ill effects. This has resulted in a gap between policy knowledge (understood as consensus among experts) and policy practice (actual policy measures to implement the consensus) in healthcare. The existing literature attributes such gaps to a range of factors, including the stakeholders’ different interests, incentives, ideas, and values. Our focus on this debate is through the lens of policy capacity, specifically the ability of public actors to utilize policy knowledge and inform policy practice. We show that the observed knowledge–practice gap is rooted in the complexity of healthcare payment reforms. While actors agree on the problematic condition, there is a deep disagreement on what to do about it. Agreeing on and adopting alternate payment arrangements are challenging because reformers need to anticipate and respond to the future while accommodating the interests of the current providers who benefit from the status quo. In such instances, the capacity of public actors to devise reforms and overcome resistance to them is critical. We argue that the knowledge–practice gap in healthcare payments exists because of deficiencies in the analytical abilities of governments to devise workable alternate arrangements and shortcomings in their political capacity to overcome the resistance to proposed reforms. Put differently, we argue that no amount of evidence or consensus among stakeholders is sufficient when the analytical and political capacities to act on the evidence are lacking. The arguments are illustrated with reference to payment reforms in South Korea and Thailand.
服务收费仍然是一种流行的医疗保健支付模式,尽管人们普遍知道它的不良影响。这导致了医疗保健领域政策知识(理解为专家之间的共识)和政策实践(执行共识的实际政策措施)之间的差距。现有文献将这种差距归因于一系列因素,包括利益相关者不同的利益、激励、想法和价值观。我们关注的焦点是政策能力,特别是公共行为体利用政策知识并为政策实践提供信息的能力。我们表明,观察到的知识与实践差距是植根于医疗支付改革的复杂性。虽然演员们对这个有问题的条件达成了一致,但在如何处理这个问题上却存在着深刻的分歧。就替代支付安排达成一致并采用是具有挑战性的,因为改革者需要预测和应对未来,同时照顾目前受益于现状的提供者的利益。在这种情况下,公共行为者设计改革和克服对改革的阻力的能力至关重要。我们认为,医疗保健支付方面的知识与实践差距的存在,是因为政府在设计可行的替代安排的分析能力方面存在缺陷,以及他们在克服对拟议改革的阻力方面的政治能力存在缺陷。换句话说,我们认为,当缺乏根据证据采取行动的分析和政治能力时,任何证据或利益相关者之间的共识都是不够的。这些论点以韩国和泰国的支付改革为例加以说明。
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引用次数: 0
Expert knowledge for global pandemic policy: a chorus of evidence or a clutter of global commissions? 全球流行病政策的专家知识:证据齐声还是全球委员会的混乱?
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puad022
Diane Stone, A. Schmider
“Global Commissions of Inquiry” have usually been associated with the multilateral initiatives of governments and international organizations. However, various styles of “global commission” have emerged over time. During the COVID-19 pandemic, global commissions have been a key aspect of the COVID-19 international policy landscape, quickly emerging, in 2020 and 2021, to corral knowledge and evidence. These include “formal” commissions, such as the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response and the Global Commission for Post-Pandemic Policy, and “informal” commissions, including the Reform for Resilience and The Lancet Covid Commissions. This paper considers whether these Commissions have been engines for new ideas and global policy knowledge or whether this “chorus” of COVID Commissions represented a “clutter” of ideas at a time when global policy focus was needed. Global Commissions, in general, deserve greater scholarly attention to their design and the construction of their legitimate authority as hybrid and private commissions enter global policy making alongside official commissions.
“全球调查委员会”通常与政府和国际组织的多边倡议联系在一起。然而,随着时间的推移,出现了各种形式的“全球委托”。在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,全球委员会一直是2019冠状病毒病国际政策格局的一个关键方面,在2020年和2021年迅速出现,以收集知识和证据。这些委员会包括“正式”委员会,如大流行防范和应对独立小组和大流行后政策全球委员会,以及“非正式”委员会,包括韧性改革委员会和《柳叶刀》Covid委员会。本文考虑了这些委员会是新思想和全球政策知识的引擎,还是在需要关注全球政策的时候,COVID委员会的“合唱”代表了思想的“混乱”。总的来说,随着混合和私人委员会与官方委员会一起进入全球政策制定,全球委员会的设计和合法权威的构建值得更多的学术关注。
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引用次数: 1
Spreading expertise: think tanks as digital advocators in the social media era 传播专业知识:智库作为社交媒体时代的数字倡导者
1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puad025
Jing Zhao, Xufeng Zhu
Abstract Think tanks and their roles in rendering expertise in policy advice have been the subject of historical and ongoing research in policy sciences. However, the widening trend of digital behaviors of think tanks in the social media era is yet to be investigated. While social media is reshaping the political ecology and challenging conventional sources of knowledge, it also serves as a potential channel for think tanks to publicly share their expertise and policy advice with the public and decision-makers, thus evolving into “digital advocators.” Based on social media big data methods, this paper has constructed two sets of new think tank indicators with “network centrality” of social media accounts and “ripple effect” of social media citations from Facebook and Twitter to capture and observe the digital activities of 207 prominent think tanks in 62 countries or regions. We have concluded that think tanks have displayed their opinion and values and increased visibility as digital advocators by spreading expertise on social media platforms with online marketing skills. With various values and ideas, social media not only is hosting massive policy advocacy activities and being an expertise spreading arena for think tanks but has also been changing the ecology of the think tank industry and expertise markets.
智库及其在提供政策咨询专业知识方面的作用一直是政策科学历史和正在进行的研究的主题。但是,在社交媒体时代,智库数字化行为的扩大趋势还有待调查。社交媒体在重塑政治生态、挑战传统知识来源的同时,也成为智库向公众和决策者公开分享专业知识和政策建议的潜在渠道,从而演变为“数字倡导者”。本文基于社交媒体大数据方法,构建了社交媒体账号的“网络中心性”和Facebook和Twitter社交媒体引用的“涟漪效应”两套新的智库指标,捕捉并观察了62个国家或地区的207家知名智库的数字化活动。我们的结论是,智库通过在线营销技能在社交媒体平台上传播专业知识,展示了他们的观点和价值观,并提高了作为数字倡导者的知名度。社交媒体拥有各种价值观和理念,不仅举办大规模的政策倡导活动,成为智库传播专业知识的舞台,而且正在改变智库产业和专业知识市场的生态。
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引用次数: 1
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