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Long-term policy impacts of the coronavirus: normalization, adaptation, and acceleration in the post-COVID state 冠状病毒的长期政策影响:后冠状病毒状态下的正常化、适应和加速
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-22 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puab018
G. Capano, Michael Howlett, D. Jarvis, M. Ramesh
This paper offers an analysis of the theoretical and empirical challenges the coronavirus pandemic poses for theories of policy change. Critical events like coronavirus disease are potentially powerful destabilizers that can trigger discontinuity in policy trajectories and thus are an opportunity for accentuating path shifts. In this paper, we argue that three dynamic pathways of change are possible and must be considered when analysing post-COVID policymaking: normalization, adaptation, and acceleration. These different pathways need to be explored in order to understand the mid- and long-term policy effects of the pandemic. This introduction contextualizes the articles in this special issue, situating them broadly within two broad categories: (a) assessment of how the coronavirus disease pandemic should be understood as a crisis event, and its role in relationship to mechanisms of policy change; and (b) mapping the future contours of the pandemic’s impact on substantive policy areas, including education, health care, public finance, social protection, population ageing, the future of work, and violence against women.
本文分析了冠状病毒大流行对政策变化理论提出的理论和实证挑战。冠状病毒病等重大事件是潜在的强大不稳定因素,可能引发政策轨迹的不连续性,因此是加剧路径转变的机会。在本文中,我们认为三种动态变化途径是可能的,在分析covid - 19后的政策制定时必须考虑:正常化、适应和加速。需要探索这些不同的途径,以便了解大流行的中期和长期政策影响。本导论将本期特刊的文章置于大背景下,大致分为两大类:(a)评估如何将冠状病毒大流行理解为危机事件,及其与政策变化机制的关系;(b)描绘这一大流行病对实质性政策领域的未来影响,包括教育、保健、公共财政、社会保护、人口老龄化、工作的未来和对妇女的暴力行为。
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引用次数: 21
Digitalization and beyond: the effects of Covid-19 on post-pandemic educational policy and delivery in Europe 数字化及其后:2019冠状病毒病对欧洲大流行后教育政策和服务的影响
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puab016
Adrián Zancajo, Antoni Verger, P. Bolea
Education has been extremely affected by the coronavirus disease crisis, with almost all countries temporarily closing their schools in 2020. After the first stage of the pandemic, in which national governments focused on guaranteeing the academic year’s continuity, key international organizations emphasized the need to adopt structural policy reforms to face the challenges posed by the crisis. Based on international and European countries’ policy documents, this paper analyzes long-term responses articulated in the education sector. The analysis has allowed us to identify three preponderant areas of response: the digitalization of the educational system, educational inequalities, and teachers’ development. The agendas and policy instruments that international organizations have so far pushed for in relation to each of these areas do not differ substantially from the agendas and instruments they promoted in the pre-pandemic era. It is still early to assess the deepness of the transformations in course, but in most cases, prevailing responses represent the intensification of change processes initiated before the pandemic. Nonetheless, the type and intensity of country responses vary among the European Union member states. Although the pandemic represents a common thread, countries have experienced the crisis differently according to the characteristics of their educational systems and the main problems the crisis has revealed.
教育受到冠状病毒危机的极大影响,几乎所有国家都在2020年暂时关闭了学校。在大流行的第一阶段,各国政府把重点放在保证学年的连续性上,在此之后,主要国际组织强调有必要采取结构性政策改革,以应对危机带来的挑战。基于国际和欧洲国家的政策文件,本文分析了教育部门阐述的长期应对措施。通过分析,我们确定了三个主要的应对领域:教育系统的数字化、教育不平等和教师发展。国际组织迄今在这些领域推动的议程和政策文书,与它们在大流行前时代推动的议程和文书没有很大的不同。现在评估正在进行的变革的深度还为时过早,但在大多数情况下,普遍的应对措施是在大流行之前开始的变革进程的加强。然而,欧盟成员国的反应类型和强度各不相同。虽然大流行病是一条共同的线索,但各国根据其教育制度的特点和危机暴露的主要问题,经历了不同的危机。
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引用次数: 34
COVID-19 as a trigger for innovation in policy action for older persons? Evidence from Asia 2019冠状病毒病引发老年人政策行动创新?来自亚洲的证据
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puab012
Stuart A. Gietel-Basten, K. Matus, R. Mori
COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on older people, in terms of their susceptibility to the disease and increased fatality rates, while also by creating barriers to health care access, social isolation, psychological and financial burdens. Policy responses provide an opportunity to understand whether the demands of this crisis have led to the development of policy innovations to meet the needs of aging populations. We analyzed an illustrative corpus of policies collected by HelpAge International across Asia in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Iran, Japan, Korea, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Vietnam. We identified different policy types that impacted older persons during the pandemic. We also observed the degree to which these policies support arguments for paradigmatic policy changes by examining different models of intersectoral and multisectoral collaborations, and the kinds of policies where these multiactor arrangements were the most common. From our analysis, we identify two main areas where COVID-19 policies are most likely to lead to more long-lasting innovation in Asia. The first is in the upgrading of infrastructures to ensure access to benefits, and to develop remote and doorstep banking. The second area is well-being and caring support, such as the development of programs to provide increased services to support home-based older persons, including telemedicine, delivery services for medical and other supplies, and remote support for older persons and their carers. These changes, while important, are consistent with “acceleration” models of policy change, where COVID-19 responses sped up, and scaled up, programs consistent with current institutional and organizational structures.
COVID-19对老年人产生了不成比例的影响,因为他们对疾病的易感性和死亡率增加,同时也造成了获得医疗保健的障碍、社会孤立、心理和经济负担。政策反应提供了一个机会来了解这场危机的需求是否导致了政策创新的发展,以满足人口老龄化的需求。我们分析了国际助残会在阿富汗、孟加拉国、印度、伊朗、日本、韩国、缅甸、巴基斯坦和越南收集的政策说明性语料库。我们确定了大流行期间影响老年人的不同政策类型。我们还通过研究不同的跨部门和多部门合作模式,以及这些多参与者安排最常见的政策类型,观察了这些政策对范例政策变化的支持程度。根据我们的分析,我们确定了两个主要领域,其中应对COVID-19的政策最有可能在亚洲带来更持久的创新。首先是升级基础设施,以确保获得福利,并发展远程和家门口的银行业务。第二个领域是福祉和照料支助,例如制订方案,提供更多的服务,支持居家老年人,包括远程医疗、医疗和其他用品交付服务,以及为老年人及其照料者提供远程支助。这些变化虽然重要,但符合政策变化的“加速”模式,即加快应对COVID-19并扩大符合当前体制和组织结构的规划。
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引用次数: 3
The return of Keynesianism? Exploring path dependency and ideational change in post-covid fiscal policy 凯恩斯主义的回归?探索covid - 19后财政政策的路径依赖和观念变化
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puab013
Usman W. Chohan
The aim of this article is to explore the nature of policy change in the domain of public finance (fiscal policy) in the wake of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) pandemic as well as for a post-Covid era. It draws upon the literatures of path dependency and ideational change in public policy to consider three broad questions: (1) whether the pandemic really is a critical juncture for policy change; (2) whether the extant neoliberal austerity paradigm has faced lasting ideational displacement by Keynesianism; and (3) whether Covid-19 has really punctuated the existing fiscal policy equilibrium or rather served as a path-clearing accelerator of public finance trends that were already underway. The article then suggests three potential future trajectories: Keynesian, neoliberal, and mixed/other to consider how the path of policy change might materialize in the fiscal realm in the post-Covid era.
本文旨在探讨冠状病毒病(Covid-19)大流行之后以及后covid时代公共财政领域(财政政策)政策变化的性质。它借鉴了路径依赖和公共政策观念变化的文献,考虑了三个广泛的问题:(1)大流行是否真的是政策变化的关键时刻;(2)现有的新自由主义紧缩范式是否面临着凯恩斯主义的持久观念位移;(3) Covid-19是否真的打破了现有的财政政策平衡,或者更确切地说,它是已经在进行的公共财政趋势的清理路径加速器。然后,文章提出了三种潜在的未来轨迹:凯恩斯主义、新自由主义和混合/其他,以考虑在后新冠时代政策变化的路径如何在财政领域实现。
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引用次数: 6
COVID-19 as a policy window: policy entrepreneurs responding to violence against women 2019冠状病毒病作为政策窗口:政策企业家应对暴力侵害妇女行为
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puab017
Michael Mintrom, J. True
Policy windows emerge through alignment among specific policy problems, political forces, and proposed policy responses. During policy windows, it becomes possible for change to occur, driven by the agenda-setting of policy entrepreneurs. We consider how the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) created a significant policy window. As we do so, we seek to advance theorization of the conditions under which policy change occurs and when it sticks. We ground this discussion in exploration of a salient policy matter: responding to violence against women (VAW). Shortly after the World Health Organization declared the spread of COVID-19 a global pandemic, in April 2020, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuke, Executive Director of United Nations (UN) Women—the entity of the UN dedicated to gender equality and the empowerment of women—coined VAW the “shadow pandemic” and launched a global public awareness campaign. We review the advocacy work that led in 2020 to broader recognition of VAW as a significant policy problem. That advocacy has driven policy changes at local and national levels that are intended to have long-term, trajectory-altering impacts on reducing violence. We conclude by drawing insights to guide theory-driven empirical analysis of other policy windows.
政策窗口通过协调具体的政策问题、政治力量和拟议的政策反应而出现。在政策窗口期,在政策企业家制定议程的推动下,变革有可能发生。我们考虑冠状病毒病(COVID-19)如何创造了一个重要的政策窗口。在我们这样做的过程中,我们试图推进政策变化发生的条件和政策变化何时持续的理论化。我们在探讨一个突出的政策问题:应对对妇女的暴力行为(VAW)。在世界卫生组织于2020年4月宣布COVID-19蔓延为全球大流行后不久,联合国妇女署(联合国致力于性别平等和增强妇女权能的实体)执行主任Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuke将对妇女暴力称为“影子大流行”,并发起了一场全球公众宣传运动。我们回顾了2020年的宣传工作,这些工作使人们更广泛地认识到暴力侵害妇女行为是一个重大的政策问题。这种倡导推动了地方和国家一级的政策变化,旨在对减少暴力产生长期的、改变轨迹的影响。最后,我们总结了一些见解,以指导理论驱动的其他政策窗口的实证分析。
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引用次数: 15
COVID-19 and welfare state support: the case of universal basic income COVID-19与福利国家支持:以全民基本收入为例
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-20 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puab015
David Weisstanner
The COVID-19 pandemic has revived discussions about universal basic income (UBI) as a potential crisis response. Yet despite favorable circumstances, little actual policy change in this area was observed. This article seeks to explain this absence of policy change and to reflect on the prospects for introducing UBI schemes after the pandemic in European democracies. I argue that public opinion on UBI provides few electoral incentives to push for social policy change. Using prepandemic data from 21 European democracies and pandemic data from the UK, I show that political support for UBI has been divided between different groups who advocate conflicting policy goals and who hold divergent views about existing welfare state arrangements. While support for UBI might have increased during the pandemic, the underlying political dividing lines are likely to have remained intact. Due to these enduring divisions and the stable support for existing social policy arrangements over an untested policy, the prospects for introducing UBI schemes in the post-pandemic world remain uncertain.
2019冠状病毒病大流行重新引发了关于全民基本收入作为潜在危机应对措施的讨论。然而,尽管环境有利,但在这一领域几乎没有实际的政策变化。本文试图解释这种缺乏政策变化的现象,并反思欧洲民主国家在大流行后引入全民基本收入计划的前景。我认为,公众对全民基本收入的看法,几乎没有为推动社会政策变革提供选举激励。利用来自21个欧洲民主国家的流行病前数据和来自英国的流行病数据,我表明,对UBI的政治支持在不同群体之间存在分歧,这些群体主张相互冲突的政策目标,并对现有的福利国家安排持有不同的看法。虽然在大流行期间对全民基本收入的支持可能有所增加,但潜在的政治分界线可能保持不变。由于这些长期存在的分歧和对现有社会政策安排的稳定支持,而不是未经检验的政策,在大流行后的世界引入全民基本收入计划的前景仍然不确定。
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引用次数: 3
“New normal” at work in a post-COVID world: work–life balance and labor markets 后疫情时代的“新常态”:工作与生活的平衡和劳动力市场
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-20 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puab011
L. Vyas
The coronavirus pandemic has interrupted labor markets, triggering massive and instant series of experimentations with flexible work arrangements, and new relationships to centralized working environments. These approaches have laid the basis for the “new normal,” likely extending into the organization of work in the post-pandemic era. These new arrangements, especially flexible work arrangements, have challenged traditional relationships with employees and employers, work time and working hours, the work–life balance (WLB), and the relationship of individuals to work. This paper investigates how labor markets have been interrupted due to the pandemic, focusing especially on manual (blue-collar) and nonmanual (white-collar) work and the future of the WLB, along with exploring the projected deviations that are driving a foreseeable future policy revolution in work and employment. This paper argues that although hybrid and remote working would be more popular in the post-pandemic for nonmanual work, it will not be “one size fits all” solution. Traditional work practices will remain, and offices will not completely disappear. Manual labor will continue current work practices with increased demands. Employers’ attention to employees’ WLB in the new normal will target employees’ motivation and achieving better WLB. These trends for the labor market and WLB are classified into three categories—those that are predicated on changes that were already underway but were accelerated with arrival of the pandemic (“acceleration”); those that represent normalization of what were once considered avant-garde ways of work (“normalization”); and those that represent modification or alteration of pre-pandemic set-up (“remodelling”).
冠状病毒大流行中断了劳动力市场,引发了一系列大规模的、即时的灵活工作安排试验,以及与集中工作环境的新关系。这些方法为“新常态”奠定了基础,可能延伸到大流行后时代的工作组织。这些新的安排,特别是灵活的工作安排,挑战了员工和雇主之间的传统关系,工作时间和工作时间,工作与生活的平衡(WLB),以及个人与工作的关系。本文调查了劳动力市场是如何因疫情而中断的,特别关注体力(蓝领)和非体力(白领)工作以及WLB的未来,同时探讨了推动可预见的未来工作和就业政策革命的预测偏差。本文认为,尽管混合和远程工作将在大流行后的非体力工作中更受欢迎,但它不会是“一刀切”的解决方案。传统的工作方式将会保留,办公室也不会完全消失。随着需求的增加,体力劳动将继续目前的工作方式。在新常态下,雇主对员工工作负载的关注将针对员工的动机,实现更好的工作负载。劳动力市场和劳动生产率的这些趋势分为三类:一类是基于已经在进行的变化,但随着大流行的到来而加速的变化(“加速”);那些代表着曾经被认为是前卫工作方式的正常化(“正常化”);以及那些代表大流行前设置的修改或改变(“重塑”)。
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引用次数: 64
Re-thinking the coronavirus pandemic as a policy punctuation: COVID-19 as a path-clearing policy accelerator 重新思考冠状病毒大流行作为政策标点符号:COVID-19作为扫清道路的政策加速器
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puab009
J. Hogan, Michael Howlett, M. Murphy
This article joins with others in this special issue to examine the evolution of our understanding of how the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 pandemic impacted policy ideas and routines across a wide variety of sectors of government activity. Did policy ideas and routines transform as a result of the pandemic or were they merely a continuation of the status quo ante? If they did transform, are the transformations temporary in nature or likely to lead to significant, deep and permanent reform to existing policy paths and trajectories? As this article sets out, the literature on policy punctuations has evolved and helps us understand the impact of COVID-19 on policy-making but tends to conflate several distinct aspects of path trajectories and deviations under the general concept of “critical junctures” which muddy reflections and findings. Once the different possible types of punctuations have been clarified, however, the result is a set of concepts related to path creation and disruption—especially that of “path clearing”—which are better able to provide an explanation of the kinds of policy change to be expected to result from the impact of events such as the 2019 coronavirus pandemic.
这篇文章与本期特刊中的其他文章一起,探讨了我们对冠状病毒病(COVID)-19大流行如何影响政府活动各个部门的政策思想和惯例的理解的演变。政策观念和惯例是否因大流行而改变,还是仅仅延续了以前的现状?如果它们确实发生了转变,这种转变是暂时的,还是可能导致对现有政策路径和轨迹进行重大、深刻和永久的改革?正如本文所述,关于政策标点符号的文献不断发展,有助于我们理解COVID-19对政策制定的影响,但往往将路径轨迹和偏差的几个不同方面合并在“关键节点”的一般概念下,这混淆了反思和发现。然而,一旦不同可能类型的标点符号得到澄清,结果是一系列与路径创建和中断相关的概念,特别是“路径清除”概念,这些概念能够更好地解释2019年冠状病毒大流行等事件的影响预计会导致的各种政策变化。
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引用次数: 27
What has happened and what has not happened due to the coronavirus disease pandemic: a systemic perspective on policy change 由于冠状病毒病大流行,发生了什么,没有发生什么:从政策变化的系统角度看
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puab008
Christoph Knill, Yves Steinebach
The societal and policy transformations associated with the coronavirus disease pandemic are currently subject of intense academic debate. In this paper, we contribute to this debate by adopting a systemic perspective on policy change, shedding light on the hidden and indirect crisis effects. Based on a comprehensive analysis of policy agenda developments in Germany, we find that the pandemic led to profound shifts in political attention across policy areas. We demonstrate that these agenda gains and losses per policy area vary by the extent to which the respective areas can be presented as relevant in managing the coronavirus disease crisis and its repercussions. Moreover, relying on the analysis of past four economic crises, we also find that there is limited potential for catching up dynamics after the crisis is over. Policy areas that lost agenda share during crisis are unlikely to make up for these losses by strong attention gains once the crisis is over. Crises have hence substantial, long-term and so far, neglected effects on policymaking in modern democracies.
与冠状病毒病大流行相关的社会和政策变革目前是激烈学术辩论的主题。在本文中,我们通过采用系统的视角来看待政策变化,揭示隐藏的和间接的危机影响,从而为这场辩论做出贡献。根据对德国政策议程发展的全面分析,我们发现,这一流行病导致政治注意力在各个政策领域发生了深刻的变化。我们证明,每个政策领域的议程收益和损失因各自领域在管理冠状病毒疾病危机及其影响方面的相关程度而异。此外,依靠对过去四次经济危机的分析,我们也发现危机结束后追赶动力的潜力有限。在危机期间失去议程份额的政策领域不太可能在危机结束后通过获得大量关注来弥补这些损失。因此,危机对现代民主国家的决策产生了巨大的、长期的、迄今为止被忽视的影响。
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引用次数: 12
Policy integration, problem-solving, and the coronavirus disease crisis: lessons for policy design 政策整合、解决问题和冠状病毒危机:政策设计的经验教训
IF 9.3 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1093/polsoc/puab010
M. Maggetti, Philipp Trein
The coronavirus disease pandemic has exposed differences in the capacity of governments around the world to integrate and coordinate different policy instruments into a coherent response. In this article, we conceptualize and empirically examine policy integration in responses to the coronavirus disease crisis in 35 countries. We then discuss how the interplay between restrictions, health protection, and economic policy has been articulated between, on the one hand, a policy design based on the complementarity of pro-public health and pro-economy measures, implying an integrated response, and, on the other, a policy design based on the perception of an inherent trade-off between the two. Finally, we discuss three implications from our analysis of policy integration against the coronavirus disease crisis for the post-COVID state: (a) the normalization and adaptation of integrated crisis responses; (b) the possible acceleration and “catching up” of problem-solving capacity as governments may use the crisis as an instance to put into place new social policies; and (c) policy integration as an accelerator of policy complexity and resistance against technocracy in the post-COVID state.
冠状病毒病大流行暴露了世界各国政府在整合和协调不同政策工具以形成连贯应对措施方面的能力差异。在本文中,我们对35个国家应对冠状病毒病危机的政策整合进行了概念化和实证研究。然后,我们讨论了限制、健康保护和经济政策之间的相互作用,一方面,基于有利于公共卫生和有利于经济的措施的互补性的政策设计,这意味着一种综合的反应,另一方面,基于对两者之间固有权衡的认识的政策设计。最后,我们讨论了针对冠状病毒疾病危机的政策整合分析对后冠状病毒国家的三个影响:(a)综合危机应对的常态化和适应性;(b)政府可能会以危机为例,实施新的社会政策,从而加速和“迎头赶上”解决问题的能力;(c)政策整合是后疫情国家政策复杂性和抵制技术官僚主义的加速器。
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引用次数: 13
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