Review of World Economics最新文献

This paper examines the dynamic nature of pro-environmental preferences through an analysis of sector valuations in global equity markets from 2018 to 2023. We classify companies into three groups based on their business activities: green (e.g., renewables), neutral, and brown (e.g., fossil energy). We then run panel regressions to test whether being in the green or brown sectoral category affects stock valuations. We find that investors value sector affiliation, positively for green and negatively for brown, even after controlling for other firm-level financial and extra-financial characteristics. The effect is sizeable, as we report a 24% overvaluation of companies in green sectors and a 12% undervaluation of companies in brown sectors on average compared to the rest of the market. In addition, companies in green sectors have come under increased investor scrutiny since 2018 and appear increasingly overvalued relative to the rest of the market, suggesting that pro-environmental preferences have become more prevalent among investors.

This paper proposes an analytical framework to quantify the impacts of climate transition narratives on a consistent set of macroeconomic, sectoral and financial variables required for financial risk assessment. Focusing on transition risks, our set-up relies on a suite of models, calibrated on the high-level reference scenarios of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Its modular structure and variable coverage ensure a comprehensive assessment of the financial implications of disorderly transition scenarios to a low-carbon economy, from the identification of climate-sensitive sectors to the quantification of the impacts on financial metrics. An application to France evaluates the impacts on financial markets and credit risk parameters. Results indicate that the sectoral disruptions associated with a disorderly transition to a low-carbon economy can be substantial and translate in material financial risks. The study offers further grounds for encouraging policy-makers and financial institutions to support and prepare for an early and orderly transition.

This paper applies a recently developed method (Inoue and Rossi, 2021) to estimate functional inflation expectations and ex-ante real interest rate shocks, and then examines their macroeconomic effects in the context of a Functional Vector Autoregressive model with exogenous variables (Functional VARX). Monthly data from January 1998 to May 2023 for the US, the UK and the euro area are used for the analysis. The estimated impulse responses show significant effects of the functional shocks on both inflation and output. In addition, threshold functional local projections indicate that the effects are nonlinear and depend on central bank credibility. Further, inflation expectations shocks have similar effects to supply (demand) ones when they are driven by long-term (short-term) changes. In the presence of an inverted (steepening) real interest rate term structure, the effects are inflationary (deflationary) and expansionary (recessionary). Finally, the responses of inflation, output and the policy rate are driven primarily by the slope and curvature factors of the term structure shocks, which contain important information not captured by traditional scalar shocks.

This paper analyzes how appropriation impacts comparative advantage through the general equilibrium approach. We find that appropriation can always reshape comparative advantage for both economies with strong and weak appropriation under different economic backgrounds. Specifically, whether the economy with stronger or weaker control on appropriation gains comparative advantage in the labor-intensive or capital-intensive product depends on the type of appropriation. More importantly, controlling on appropriation can make it feasible that a capital-intensive economy obtains comparative advantage in the labor-intensive product, which is against the prediction by the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem and may be helpful to explain the Leontief’s paradox. We also examine the welfare effect of controlling on appropriation and the relationship between appropriation and the optimal tariff.