We study the life cycle of a firm that produces a good of unknown quality. The firm manages its quality by investing while consumers learn via public breakthroughs; if the firm fails to generate such breakthroughs, its revenue falls and it eventually exits. Optimal investment depends on the firm’s reputation (the market’s belief about its quality) and self-esteem (the firm’s own belief about its quality), and is single-peaked in the time since a breakthrough. We derive predictions about the distribution of revenue and propose a method to decompose the impact of policy changes into investment and selection effects. (JEL D11, D21, D25, D83, G31, L15)
{"title":"A Reputational Theory of Firm Dynamics","authors":"Simon Board, Moritz Meyer-ter-Vehn","doi":"10.1257/mic.20190376","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190376","url":null,"abstract":"We study the life cycle of a firm that produces a good of unknown quality. The firm manages its quality by investing while consumers learn via public breakthroughs; if the firm fails to generate such breakthroughs, its revenue falls and it eventually exits. Optimal investment depends on the firm’s reputation (the market’s belief about its quality) and self-esteem (the firm’s own belief about its quality), and is single-peaked in the time since a breakthrough. We derive predictions about the distribution of revenue and propose a method to decompose the impact of policy changes into investment and selection effects. (JEL D11, D21, D25, D83, G31, L15)","PeriodicalId":47467,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Microeconomics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46784848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Keeping up with “The Joneses” matters. This paper examines a model of reference-dependent choice where reference points are determined by social comparisons. An increase in the strength of social comparisons, even by only a few agents, increases consumption and decreases welfare for everyone. Strikingly, a higher marginal cost of consumption can increase welfare. In a labor market, social comparisons with coworkers create a big fish in a small pond effect, inducing incomplete labor market sorting. Further, it is the skilled workers with the weakest social networks who are induced to give up income to become the big fish. (JEL D85, J22, J24, J61)
{"title":"Keeping Up with “The Joneses”: Reference-Dependent Choice with Social Comparisons","authors":"A. Langtry","doi":"10.1257/mic.20220088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20220088","url":null,"abstract":"Keeping up with “The Joneses” matters. This paper examines a model of reference-dependent choice where reference points are determined by social comparisons. An increase in the strength of social comparisons, even by only a few agents, increases consumption and decreases welfare for everyone. Strikingly, a higher marginal cost of consumption can increase welfare. In a labor market, social comparisons with coworkers create a big fish in a small pond effect, inducing incomplete labor market sorting. Further, it is the skilled workers with the weakest social networks who are induced to give up income to become the big fish. (JEL D85, J22, J24, J61)","PeriodicalId":47467,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Microeconomics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49385728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze the incentives for showing off, which we model as a costly signaling game, and study the consequences of norms against such behavior. Prior to competing in a contest, a newcomer can signal his talent to an incumbent. In equilibrium, costly signaling of ability occurs only when the newcomer is exceptionally talented. In such situations signaling benefits both contestants: the newcomer for obvious reasons; the incumbent by economizing on wasted effort in the contest. Our results rationalize the emergence of norms against showing off in settings where total effort is important. When selection efficiency matters, such norms decrease welfare. (JEL D82, D83, D91, Z13)
{"title":"Showing Off or Laying Low? The Economics of Psych-outs","authors":"Philipp Denter, John Morgan, Dana Sisak","doi":"10.1257/mic.20190234","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190234","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the incentives for showing off, which we model as a costly signaling game, and study the consequences of norms against such behavior. Prior to competing in a contest, a newcomer can signal his talent to an incumbent. In equilibrium, costly signaling of ability occurs only when the newcomer is exceptionally talented. In such situations signaling benefits both contestants: the newcomer for obvious reasons; the incumbent by economizing on wasted effort in the contest. Our results rationalize the emergence of norms against showing off in settings where total effort is important. When selection efficiency matters, such norms decrease welfare. (JEL D82, D83, D91, Z13)","PeriodicalId":47467,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Microeconomics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138542423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study trust building in credence-goods markets in a dynamic setting. When consumers’ expected loss is low and it is efficient to fix only the more severe problem, there is no trade in the one-shot game. In the repeated game, an expert’s honesty is monitored through consumers’ rejection of his recommendations. The expert’s profit in the optimal equilibrium weakly increases in the discount factor but does not achieve the first best, which contrasts sharply with the optimal equilibrium in experience-goods markets. The optimal equilibrium involves undertreatment if the expert is sufficiently patient, and overtreatment if he is moderately patient. (JEL C73, D82, D83, Z13)
{"title":"Trust Building in Credence Goods Markets","authors":"Yuk-fai Fong, Ting Liu, Xiaoxuan Meng","doi":"10.1257/mic.20180313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180313","url":null,"abstract":"We study trust building in credence-goods markets in a dynamic setting. When consumers’ expected loss is low and it is efficient to fix only the more severe problem, there is no trade in the one-shot game. In the repeated game, an expert’s honesty is monitored through consumers’ rejection of his recommendations. The expert’s profit in the optimal equilibrium weakly increases in the discount factor but does not achieve the first best, which contrasts sharply with the optimal equilibrium in experience-goods markets. The optimal equilibrium involves undertreatment if the expert is sufficiently patient, and overtreatment if he is moderately patient. (JEL C73, D82, D83, Z13)","PeriodicalId":47467,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Microeconomics","volume":"125 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Given a scarcity of journal space, what is the optimal rule for whether an empirical finding should be published? Suppose publications inform the public about a policy-relevant state. Then journals should publish extreme results, meaning ones that move beliefs sufficiently. This optimal rule may take the form of a one- or two-sided test comparing a point estimate to the prior mean, with critical values determined by a cost-benefit analysis. Consideration of future studies may additionally justify the publication of precise null results. If one insists that standard inference remain valid, however, publication must not select on the study’s findings. (JEL D61, D82, D83, L82)
{"title":"Which Findings Should Be Published?","authors":"Alexander Frankel, Maximilian Kasy","doi":"10.1257/mic.20190133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190133","url":null,"abstract":"Given a scarcity of journal space, what is the optimal rule for whether an empirical finding should be published? Suppose publications inform the public about a policy-relevant state. Then journals should publish extreme results, meaning ones that move beliefs sufficiently. This optimal rule may take the form of a one- or two-sided test comparing a point estimate to the prior mean, with critical values determined by a cost-benefit analysis. Consideration of future studies may additionally justify the publication of precise null results. If one insists that standard inference remain valid, however, publication must not select on the study’s findings. (JEL D61, D82, D83, L82)","PeriodicalId":47467,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Microeconomics","volume":"66 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We introduce noisy belief equilibrium (NBE) for normal-form games in which players best respond to noisy belief realizations. Axioms restrict belief distributions to be unbiased with respect to and responsive to changes in the opponents’ behavior. The axioms impose testable restrictions both within and across games, and we compare these restrictions to those of regular quantal response equilibrium (QRE) in which axioms are placed on the quantal response function as the primitive. NBE can generate similar predictions as QRE in several classes of games. Unlike QRE, NBE is a refinement of rationalizability and invariant to affine transformations of payoffs. (JEL C72, D83, D91)
{"title":"Stochastic Equilibria: Noise in Actions or Beliefs?","authors":"Evan Friedman","doi":"10.1257/mic.20190013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190013","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce noisy belief equilibrium (NBE) for normal-form games in which players best respond to noisy belief realizations. Axioms restrict belief distributions to be unbiased with respect to and responsive to changes in the opponents’ behavior. The axioms impose testable restrictions both within and across games, and we compare these restrictions to those of regular quantal response equilibrium (QRE) in which axioms are placed on the quantal response function as the primitive. NBE can generate similar predictions as QRE in several classes of games. Unlike QRE, NBE is a refinement of rationalizability and invariant to affine transformations of payoffs. (JEL C72, D83, D91)","PeriodicalId":47467,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Microeconomics","volume":"24 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A large literature examines demand-side barriers to product adoption. In this paper, we examine supply-side barriers in a setting with limited contract enforcement. We model the relationship between a distributor and its credit-constrained vendors. We show that the optimal self-enforcing arrangement can be implemented by providing vendors with a line of credit and the option to buy additional units at a fixed price. Moreover, the structure of this arrangement is optimal both for profit-maximizing firms and for nonprofit organizations with limited resources. We test the arrangement using a field experiment in rural Uganda. We find that the model-implied optimal arrangement increased distribution significantly compared to a standard contract. However, growth was lower than predicted by the model because vendors were unwilling to extend credit to customers and did not have access to a reliable savings technology. We discuss several recent technological innovations that help to overcome both of these challenges. (JEL C93, D86, G31, L14, L26, L31, O14)
{"title":"Optimal Arrangements for Distribution in Developing Markets: Theory and Evidence","authors":"William Fuchs, Brett Green, David Levine","doi":"10.1257/mic.20190085","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190085","url":null,"abstract":"A large literature examines demand-side barriers to product adoption. In this paper, we examine supply-side barriers in a setting with limited contract enforcement. We model the relationship between a distributor and its credit-constrained vendors. We show that the optimal self-enforcing arrangement can be implemented by providing vendors with a line of credit and the option to buy additional units at a fixed price. Moreover, the structure of this arrangement is optimal both for profit-maximizing firms and for nonprofit organizations with limited resources. We test the arrangement using a field experiment in rural Uganda. We find that the model-implied optimal arrangement increased distribution significantly compared to a standard contract. However, growth was lower than predicted by the model because vendors were unwilling to extend credit to customers and did not have access to a reliable savings technology. We discuss several recent technological innovations that help to overcome both of these challenges. (JEL C93, D86, G31, L14, L26, L31, O14)","PeriodicalId":47467,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Microeconomics","volume":"2 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michele Fioretti, Alexander Vostroknutov, Giorgio Coricelli
In a stock market experiment, we examine how regret avoidance influences the decision to sell an asset while its price changes over time. Participants know beforehand whether they will observe the future prices after they sell the asset or not. Without future prices, participants are affected only by regret about previously observed high prices (past regret), but when future prices are available, they also avoid regret about expected after-sale high prices (future regret). Moreover, as the relative sizes of past and future regret change, participants dynamically switch between them. This demonstrates how multiple reference points dynamically influence sales. (JEL C91, G12, G41)
{"title":"Dynamic Regret Avoidance","authors":"Michele Fioretti, Alexander Vostroknutov, Giorgio Coricelli","doi":"10.1257/mic.20180260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20180260","url":null,"abstract":"In a stock market experiment, we examine how regret avoidance influences the decision to sell an asset while its price changes over time. Participants know beforehand whether they will observe the future prices after they sell the asset or not. Without future prices, participants are affected only by regret about previously observed high prices (past regret), but when future prices are available, they also avoid regret about expected after-sale high prices (future regret). Moreover, as the relative sizes of past and future regret change, participants dynamically switch between them. This demonstrates how multiple reference points dynamically influence sales. (JEL C91, G12, G41)","PeriodicalId":47467,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Microeconomics","volume":"12 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study relational contracts between a firm and a worker with mutual uncertainty about match quality. The worker’s actions are publicly observed and generate both output and information about the match quality. We show that the relational contracts may be inefficient. We characterize the inefficiency through a holdup problem on the contemporaneous output. In the frequent action limit, these inefficiencies persist if and only if information degrades at least at the same rate at which impatience vanishes. We characterize optimal relational contracts and show that they involve actions that yield both a lower payoff and less information than another action. (JEL D83, D86, J22, J31, J41, J63)
{"title":"Learning in Relational Contracts","authors":"Rumen Kostadinov, Aditya Kuvalekar","doi":"10.1257/mic.20190203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190203","url":null,"abstract":"We study relational contracts between a firm and a worker with mutual uncertainty about match quality. The worker’s actions are publicly observed and generate both output and information about the match quality. We show that the relational contracts may be inefficient. We characterize the inefficiency through a holdup problem on the contemporaneous output. In the frequent action limit, these inefficiencies persist if and only if information degrades at least at the same rate at which impatience vanishes. We characterize optimal relational contracts and show that they involve actions that yield both a lower payoff and less information than another action. (JEL D83, D86, J22, J31, J41, J63)","PeriodicalId":47467,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Microeconomics","volume":"187 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138520880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We consider the question of how best to allocate enforcement resources across different locations with the goal of deterring unwanted behavior. We rely on “Bayesian persuasion” to improve deterrence. We focus on the case where agents care only about the expected amount of enforcement resources given messages received. Optimization in the space of induced mean posterior beliefs involves a partial convexification of the objective function. We describe interpretable conditions under which it is possible to explicitly solve the problem with only two messages: “high enforcement” and “enforcement as usual.” We also provide a tight upper bound on the total number of messages needed to achieve the optimal solution in the general case as well as a general example that attains this bound. (JEL D83, K42, R41)
{"title":"How Bayesian Persuasion Can Help Reduce Illegal Parking and Other Socially Undesirable Behavior","authors":"P. Hernández, Z. Neeman","doi":"10.1257/mic.20190295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20190295","url":null,"abstract":"We consider the question of how best to allocate enforcement resources across different locations with the goal of deterring unwanted behavior. We rely on “Bayesian persuasion” to improve deterrence. We focus on the case where agents care only about the expected amount of enforcement resources given messages received. Optimization in the space of induced mean posterior beliefs involves a partial convexification of the objective function. We describe interpretable conditions under which it is possible to explicitly solve the problem with only two messages: “high enforcement” and “enforcement as usual.” We also provide a tight upper bound on the total number of messages needed to achieve the optimal solution in the general case as well as a general example that attains this bound. (JEL D83, K42, R41)","PeriodicalId":47467,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal-Microeconomics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44612346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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